... and look at this:
Hmm. I was just noticing someone on Twitter asserting that none of the polls put Trump ahead of DeSantis. They need to look again.
November 20, 2022
Election Day cured me of my habit of checking Real Clear Politics for the latest polls, but I did just now check back...
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39 comments:
It’s a long way to 2024.
I always shake my head at gap between Biden’s approval rating and the “wrong track” question. Who are these people who think he’s doing a bad job and yet approve of his performance? What standards are they using?
The bookies favored Wisconsin as a 10-13 point favorite over Nebraska. Nebraska lost by 1.
The games - and elections - are played for a reason. Predictions - especially about the future - are tough!
eh... Define "need".
It's like looking at a tout sheet to make your fantasy football picks for the "weekend" of NFL action (that goes from Thursday night to Monday night).
On second thought, it's less helpful than that. Try a new cure.
Dick Vitale: "Polls, polls, polls! The only poles Dukies worry about are Domzalski, Wojciechowski, and Krzyzewski!!"
Electability always trumps vulgarity in early polling. Also late polling. In-between, people feel free to dream.
Big Mike is right. The leader or leaders at this point typically flame out, and some dark horses haven't even emerged. That said, it seems to me that the 2024 GOP primaries are going to look somewhat like 2016, with Trump running against several more "conventional" Republican candidates. Trump prevailed last time because the support for someone more GOPe, while in total significantly greater than the support for Trump, failed to coalesce into one candidate, though Rubio could have grabbed it had he not fumbled a debate badly. Something similar could happen again, but I don't think it will. Trump's base is smaller and shrinking in favor of others, especially DeSantis. Conservatives want a fighter, but they also want someone who can persuade and win. A willingness to fight is not the same thing as a penchant for picking fights.
“The games - and elections - are played for a reason. Predictions - especially about the future - are tough!“
You think predicting the future is tough. Try predicting what’s already happened in the past. Say in Maricopa County for instance.
Congressional Job Approval - Disapprove +30, yet we essentially retained the same Congress.
Why do Romney republicans continue to hold on to the lie that Trump did not face a single unified opponent in 2016?
Trump faced off with Ted Cruz for a month one on one.
Cruz had the backing of the same people backing Desantis now. Cruz had the exact same consultants guiding him Desantis has now.
For more than a month.
And Trump ran away with the nomination.
You are lying to yourselves about what happened in 2016 and about what Trump has done to the Republican Party. Desantis is making a huge mistake right now and following the Cruz 2016 strategy.
What Meade said...
And...
https://amgreatness.com/2022/11/19/remember-why-you-liked-trump-in-the-first-place/
“Conservatives want a fighter, but they also want someone who can persuade and win“
At this moment, that someone is one Donald J. Trump.
My friendly advice to the NeverTrump wing of the GOP: If you truly can’t (again?) vote for Donald Trump, now is your best chance to stop a second term of Biden/Harris. Join the Democratic Party and find a conservative to support who can effectively primary them, a conservative Democrat who can also knock off Trump in the general.
Unless, of course, you’d be just fine with a second term of Biden/Harris.
Trump 2024
Women Want To Scream
Trump 2024
With the cheat machine? lose
without it? probably also lose.
Jason Whitlock — Trump now more than ever…
https://youtu.be/vgrk1vnJjng
You look at those poll numbers and think; Gosh there should have been more republicans elected. And the you see Meade's comment.
But let's not just limit it to one county in Arizona.
Just when you think this country couldn't possibly have that many stupid people, I'm reminded that 81 million people voted for Biden.
There is no "without it" anymore. Those days are gone.
DeSantis has faced two statewide elections. The first, he barely scraped out a win. The second was better, but he was running as a popular incumbent, after four years of work shifting voting laws in his favor, against a democrat party in disarray and a candidate who is basically a political joke. I'm not sure how well that will translate to support in the upper midwest. Especially if he has to tack towards the center to appeal to the white-collar libertarian GOP establishment.
Surprised to see this. The horse-race type coverage annoys me because unlike real horse racing we don’t even know if the people ranked will even RUN for president at this point. I thought Althouse shared my thorough disgust at this type of manufactured yet meaningless “news.” So I’ve already been wrong once today. Oh well. The day is young.
Republicans take the House and announce they will investigate the Justice Dept and the Administration.
Two days later the DOJ announces a Special Council investigation of Trump, which will allow them to say to any Congressional Committee, "I can't comment due to an ongoing investigation."
Will this make Republicans in Congress unhappy? Of course not. The last thing they want is for someone to tell them something they would have to act on. They will posture and blow and pound the table and play their part in show. Nothing will happen.
But by all means, let's finger-point and blame and squabble amongst ourselves. That'll help.
Forget about winning in 2024. That's a fantasy. What we need is the most disruptive and confrontational candidate we can nominate. Right now, that's Trump. If somebody better comes along, great.
Don Surber is TRUMP 2024 again, after going DeSantis for 2 minutes.... https://donsurber.blogspot.com/2022/11/trump-2024.html
Trump sucks. Time to move on. He's a child.
Trump is beating Biden by 2 points?
Wow - it's a landslide! WE should be so excited.
meanwhile:
"CANDACE OWEN JUST FIGURED OUT TRUMP IS RUDE AND SELFISH And welcome to the party, Candace. She says the way he reacted to an interview she did with him changed her view. From the article:
In her monologue on her Daily Wire show this week, Owen's said she was sharing the "personal story" because "it's something that made me for the first time question him as a person."
The conservative firebrand went on to say that Trump twisted a "completely kind and fair interview."
"That is not being a leader, that is not owning things that you did wrong, that is not owning that you misunderstood something about your base," she said. "That's not growing, that's not developing."
Owens said that was the moment she realized he was "not listening" and made her question if he was becoming "too angry."
So he can be rude to everyone else and she's down with him, but now that he's treated her the same way he's treated a zillion other people, she's out. I'm telling you, the mass exodus from the Trump Train is far from over. "
Trump blew it:
He's a man-child.
He's a Saudi-paid billionaire - out of touch.
He dumped all over strong, younger, popular governors who could be future leaders.
More Trump? no thanks.
He walked into every democrat trap.
He failed to listen to Ann Coulter when she was screaming at him to stop surrounding himself with losers back-stabbers, and frauds at the beginning of his 2016 term.
He is a dick-stepper.
He never went after Hillary - and Hillary's lies consumed him.
and on and on...
the only thing I like about Trump are his policies. Anyone can copy those. Including an adult.
"the only thing I like about Trump are his policies. Anyone can copy those. Including an adult."
But until Trump no one ever has. There is no indication that the current crop of republicans ever will. Including DeSantis.
The difference between Trump and DeSantis in most of the polled's minds is that Trump was a probable candidate for 2024, but DeSantis is still in that gray area of unknown status.
I suspect, but can't prove, that once DeSantis declares his candidacy (not going to happen until late next Summer at the earliest), he will pull even or ahead of Trump. If 15 Republicans declare their candidacy, then Trump will likely have a HUUUUUUGE edge in a split vote.
Achilles,
Cruz was a Senator running for president. Now, I like Ted Cruz a lot, and I voted for him in the 2016 TN primary, but the truth is that Senators don't make good candidates for President. Also, but the time Cruz got it heads up, Trump was already too far ahead in the delegate count- there was quite a bit of fait accompli by that point in the race.
Now, DeSantis, to win the nomination, probably needs a narrow field right from the start, and there are no guarantees of this. Trump holds an advantage right now.
Anyone can copy those. Including an adult.
And yet, they don't. The GOP has had twenty years to adopt those policies, most of which were part of the supposed platform, and instead they focused on outsourcing jobs to China and importing cheap labor, and trying to use the US military to prop up the increasingly fragile global order.
But until Trump no one ever has. There is no indication that the current crop of republicans ever will. Including DeSantis.
You can't get Trump's policies without a bit of Trump's attitude, because you have to be self-assured enough to enjoy conflict. Otherwise, the instinct for any politician is to triangulate, and to adopt the "consensus" position.
A DeSantis admin swept into office by the support of the establishment GOP won't be staffed with rock-ribbed America Firsters, but by the same folks who filled the ranks of the Bush Admin: at best they're highly competent administrators dedicated to preserving the very global order which is the source of a lot of our problems. Personally, I don't want eight years of a competent Imperial Presidency. If the choice is between that, or a disaster of a Dem admin which will result in a faster collapse, I'll lean towards voting for the collapse.
@ Hunter Biden's tax payer funded Hooker
You should run. I'd vote for you.
I suspect, but can't prove, that once DeSantis declares his candidacy (not going to happen until late next Summer at the earliest), he will pull even or ahead of Trump.
I suspect the opposite: once DeSantis becomes a declared candidate, his numbers will drop. Right now, he's the idealized candidate because he hasn't declared. It's a "grass is always greener" effect. He's the ideal boyfriend you could date, if you weren't currently lying in bed next to some snoring, farting dude who likes to spend his evenings playing video games, and who probably isn't going to rise much higher in his job because he likes where he's at.
NYT is WaPo is CNN is Fox is US News and WR is Real Clear Politics.
Salina Zito said that Trump is the result of the Conservative coalition, not the cause. The idea that you can substitute another person into that role just because he has an (R) after his name is very naive. Trump speaks to the frustrated group of people who feel marginalized by both parties. Inserting a party anointed pol in Trump’s place will deflate much of the energy of this group of people. Getting rid of Trump for his warts will also get rid of the motivation of the blue collar and red neck coalition. You will throw the baby out with the bath water. I caution people who are in love with DeSantis and are bad mouthing Trump supporters that your efforts to oust Trump will also oust the people you would need to put DeSantis over the line. The Trump faithful have the energy. Lose that and you could lose everything.
The Hooker is off her rocker. It’s like those ex-smokers who suddenly want everyone else to quit too and if not they harass you and carry a tiny fan around and try and change the rules of the HOA so you can’t even smoke in your home. For some reason turncoats just cannot live and let live. Here’s a pro tip. When you’re arguments are so weak and weird you’re citing “ignoring Ann Coulter” to list of offenses then your very rant has become counterproductive. Move on. And leave us alone. Some of us actually wait for the primary to eliminate options.
Trump and his supporters cannot take any push-back.
Weak. Name-calling. Boring. Not leadership.
I like Cruz because he fought the real enemy. He could have brought that level of fight up against the Hillary, and won the election with stronger numbers.
Or not - it will never be known. (Tired of people insisting they have super-powers to know the unknowable.)
I recall the media were desperate to make Trump the GOP nominee. (blah blah blah insert here *--* stuff I've already stated a million times) The media had a large hand in it. I don't deny that Trump's populism brought in a lot of support from all sides. I do doubt, however, that level of support can be re-created. Esp. now that he is bleeding support - financial and otherwise. Spare me the "only Trump" can save us. It takes more that one person. You need a team.
If Trump's former donors move away from Trump - what used to be "good" money - is now bad bad super plus ungood double bad chi com dirty donor money... or something.
I hope some Republican becomes President in 2024 but if the Republicans don't learn how to vote harvest no Republican can win. And I can't see them doing that. It's not in their nature. Democrats want to win. Republicans want to be traditional.
Lifted: the Trump lash-out:
Two sources familiar with Trump’s thinking said part of the reason he has lashed out is because he believes both governors are actively soliciting support from “his donors.” Trump has told aides and allies that DeSantis especially is trying to pitch himself to deep-pocketed Republicans who helped bankroll Trump’s reelection campaign.
A Republican fundraiser in Florida with knowledge of DeSantis’ political operation said, “Of course, he’s talking to those people. They’re fair game and every Republican is going to go after those donors because that’s the smart thing to do, it’s not with the mindset, ‘Let’s screw Trump.’”
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