"... and is more likely than before to seek to negotiate, people familiar with the matter said.... Twitter is still working on an all-important estimate of its own value, which would need to come in close to Mr. Musk’s offer.... The two sides are meeting Sunday.... Mr. Musk said he sees no way Twitter management can get the stock to his offer price on its own, given the issues in the business and a persistent inability to correct them.... Twitter’s board should engage with Mr. Musk since its stock has 'gone nowhere' since the company went public eight years ago, said Jeff Gramm, a portfolio manager with Bandera Partners LLC... Mr. Gramm said Twitter’s board can’t walk away from Mr. Musk’s offer without providing an alternative that gives real value to shareholders. 'I’m not sure what that can be at this stage besides finding a higher bid,' he said."
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31 comments:
They still have the poison pill. The premium Musk is offering is probably not enough to attract 51% willing sellers. Selling invokes income tax complications, and for less than they may expect from the stock eventually.
The market price is what the least enthusiastic holder wants for his stock, not what the mass of the holders want.
At this point, we can start making predictions on how disgruntled Twitter employees will sabotage the network. I suspect a few people hope that will include destruction of archives.
"They still have the poison pill."
The article is about the board reconsidering Musk's offer. The poison pill relates to a hostile takeover.
I see the business argument.....the stock has gone no-where......but I'm having trouble imagining what the next-big-step might be.
Isn’t the 52 week high $73.34, or something like that?
And Musk is offering much less?
Math is tricky.
Poison pill buys time. This extract tracks my comments on this subject. Management has to raise value of stock one way or another in face of credible offer from Musk.
The article is about the amateurs Twitter has been paying to do nothing talking to their lawyers for the first time. They will be lucky to get out with their skins.
"The market price is what the least enthusiastic holder wants for his stock, not what the mass of the holders want."
True. But it is also somewhat higher than anyone else alive thinks that stock is worth.
It is hard for a board in this situation not to sell - whether to Musk or someone else. Doing nothing in the face of an above market offer is not really an option.
His argument is based on the idea that Twitter is in trouble and needs to sell.
Is there any proof to that?
Musk wouldn't be buying if he didn't think that he would make $$ off of Twitter ... so why would current shareholders think the same?
"Isn’t the 52 week high $73.34, or something like that?"
Why yes it is, but why did you have to tell all these armchair experts about it?
I was shocked by the arb on Twitter. It shrinks on Monday.
Board owns almost no stock so what does that tell you about what they think that the upside is.
“Isn’t the 52 week high $73.34, or something like that?”
Musk offered a significant premium to what Twitter was trading for before the offer. That’s what matters.
Musk wouldn't be buying if he didn't think that he would make $$ off of Twitter
He can make money off of Twitter by changing the business plan. The current leadership sues Twitter not as a means to create value but as a means to affect politics and culture, which means there is a potential for unrealized market opportunity that Musk sees that the current leaders refuse to appreciate.
adSs: "Math is tricky."
A $4 Billion stock buyback helped to inflate the stock price temporarily.
You might want to take a look at twitter growth since 2014 and you'll see how stagnant growth has been.
But you do you. Business finance is tricky.
Thanks for playing.
Dumb Lefty Mark: "Why yes it is, but why did you have to tell all these armchair experts about it?"
LOL
How many times can this failed twitter leadership (who own basically no twitter stock at all) kick in $4B blocks to goose the stock price temporarily to cover their arses with shareholders?
Talk about "armchair experts". You epitomize that moniker.
Jeff Gramm, a portfolio manager with Bandera Partners LLC
Bandera Partners? Sounds too Ukrainian and controversial to get involved with now.
And there's this:
Bandera Partners is a hedge fund with 2 clients and discretionary assets under management (AUM) of $210,041,988 (Form ADV from 2021-03-24).
Two clients and two hundred million in assets?
can Musk use 'Tweet-feed' to turn Tesla cars into bumper-cars?
Isn’t the 52 week high $73.34, or something like that?
Just wondering...do you actually buy every stock that's currently trading below its 52-week high?
Drago,
I offer you $420.69 for your car. That is my best and final offer.
If you don’t accept this you are a dumb dumb because Drago Finance School tells me that anything short of immediate and complete capitulation to my offer is wrong.
If Elon Musk does have $46.5 billion in financing, the Twitter board should ask for $50 billion. Musk has put his personal brand on the line if he doesn’t get the deal. That should be worth several billion.
Plus, $50 billion is a nice round Cool Hand Luke sort of number.
Drago,
You can now order one of the new Roadsters for only fifty grand prepaid.
The thousand “Founders” had to prepay $250,000 in 2017 to order the same car.
BTW finance-expert-Drago, how much money would $250,000 invested in Tesla stock in 2017 add up to today?
Follow-up question, was giving Musk a quarter of a million dollars in 2017 for a car that still doesn’t exist a good idea?
Bandera Partners:
So you want to be an Activist Investor?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-9tqM1EH7Lk
Twitter could finalize deal with Elon Musk this week: WSJ
This is a bit of a question, but I read Musk's tweet about the board not representing the interest of shareholders. I think, but not sure so hence the question, that this puts the board in a predicament regarding its poison pill. If Musk makes a reasonable offer that benefits shareholders and the board, which has already saw a rather significant drop in their share prices, rejects the offer; doesn't that provide grounds for shareholders to sue the board members directly?
It seems to me that the only thing moving Twitter's stock upward is Musk buying it. If he sells after a failed bid, good luck board and shareholders.
Surprising that leftist investors have not swooped in to “save” Twitter.
adSs: "Drago,
You can now order one of the new Roadsters for only fifty grand prepaid."
It was wise of adSs to abandon his previous line of BS/faux expertise and change the subject.
adSs: "Drago,
I offer you $420.69 for your car. That is my best and final offer."
You misspelled -- yes, the poor performing Twitter Board did indeed execute a $4B stock buyback to artificially and temporarily inflate twitter stock price so shareholders wouldnt fire their arses. --
Better luck next time.
Leland: "It seems to me that the only thing moving Twitter's stock upward is Musk buying it. If he sells after a failed bid, good luck board and shareholders."
Careful. That sort of clear cause and effect relationship has been known to trigger adSs and Dumb Lefty Mark.
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