"Essentially what it means is ‘distraction from work because you’re obsessed with the war.’...
There’s little doubt that in Zhongnanhai, the leadership compound in Beijing, Chinese Communist party higher-ups are, in a more literal sense, working with their minds on Ukraine....
A few weeks ago, a prominent Chinese nationalist told me that the Ukrainians were ‘Russians really.' It doesn’t seem that way today... Beijing has in the past argued, in terms like those used by Moscow about Ukraine, that long-standing historical ties and linguistic similarities make the case for unification. Yet regardless of the legal differences between Taiwan and Ukraine’s international standing, the scenes from Kiev and Kharkiv show a very different narrative to the world, including to China: people in a democratic, developed state refusing to accept annexation by a powerful, autocratic neighbour.... Any assault on Taipei would receive massive coverage. Russia cares little about global PR. China, despite its increasing assertiveness, is still keen to promote its image as a peaceful power that seeks economic partnership. Footage of terrified civilians hiding in the Taipei metro would hardly burnish that image. The brutality evident in the streets of Ukraine may have given Taiwan a breathing space."
From "Could the Ukraine war save Taiwan?" by Rana Mitter, Oxford history professor and author of "China’s Good War: How World War II is Shaping a New Nationalism" (The Spectator).
42 comments:
How would Ukraine save Taiwan?
Russia is becoming a Chinese satellite. Russia is now dependent on China for financial service.
China just got access to all the Oil and Coal they need and they will be getting it at a discount.
Perhaps the more important point would be the real-world proof that, in war, the other guy has a vote.
And the reminder that logistics is king. If you can't demonstrate you can easily supply twice as much as it looks as if the troops will need, don't even start.
Wishful thinking is usually wrong. See Hitler and see the Japanese.
To quote Sun Tzu...don't start nuthin' won't be nuthin'
Just how important is Taiwan, anyway? What do you think you'll pay--corrected by the multiplier you get from watching the Uke thing--for an island all of whose useful parts are destroyed?
We've seen the New New World Order: Everyone in the world is now a publisher, an influencer, and a power. Governments can control your bank accounts and monitor social media. Hackers can expose private data of their enemies. Protestors and rioters can make any government look bad. Physical labor employees (e.g., truckers, medical, teachers) can veto the best laid plans.
We all learn to work together, or we'll have chaos...
Lots of people saying,"I wish we'd given defensive arms to the Ukraine earlier".
We ought to be flooding Taiwan with defensive weapons today.
Hog wash. Remember Tiananmen Square. China cares no more about image than Russia. China smart move now - Seem reasonable and sensible and not align with Russia. Take everything the west will give you while Russia takes Ukraine. Then they take Taiwan. If they try too early to take Taiwan it would probably be WW3 with Nukes - West against both Russia and China and they know that.
China, despite its increasing assertiveness, is still keen to promote its image as a peaceful power that seeks economic partnership. Footage of terrified civilians hiding in the Taipei metro would hardly burnish that image.
This seems a little like wishful thinking. There was some brief outrage about the crackdowns in Hong Kong, complete with social media, etc. but China seems to have weathered it fine. Shots of bombed out Taipei apartment buildings would be worse, sure, but I think they can probably weather that too.
And to a much greater extent than Russia, China has taken steps to protect its economy from foreign interference. For example, I think China UnionPay still has an overwhelming share of the domestic credit payment market, with only limited penetration by foreign companies, so the Visa/Mastercard issue wouldn't be crippling in the same way. Of course, its economy is highly dependent on exports, giving foreign powers leverage, but by the same token, China is also the largest trading partner for many -- perhaps most? -- countries around the globe. So isolating them would be a lot more painful than isolating Russia.
It's probably not the brutality or the threat of foreign reaction/retaliation so much as the possibility that conquering the Republic won't be quick, but will drag on with humiliating scenes of scores of PRC tanks getting blown up by Javelins and leaking back into the mainland. That would undermine the prestige of the Communist regime domestically, and I doubt they could suppress the news fully.
If the US thinks that China will give up their interests in Taiwan because of Twitter, they're dumber than I ever imagined. A major problem with the sheer level of escalation in Ukraine is that the CCP now knows not to trust Western banks or corporations- even the Swiss. More, they have a cultural map to use in planning for an invasion of Taiwan. Of course, given the way Biden insists no one will send American military power to Ukraine, China can hardly be blamed for supposing that American forces are less able to defend Taiwan.
I do think what is currently happening in the Ukraine should have China rethinking strategy in regards to Taiwan. A couple of weeks ago, I thought the west's mishandling of Putin (particularly the utter incompetence of President "small incursion" Biden) would embolden China into thinking now is the time to take Taiwan. However, the combined resistance by Ukrainians, the greater incompetence by the Russian military, and fairly the economic sanctions taken against Putin and Russia should cause China to pause. I don't China's military is as bad as what we are seeing from the Russians (either in preparedness or internal support for the cause), but China wouldn't want to lose the economic relationships it currently has.
China still wants Taiwan, but it looks like now isn't the time.
It's not about the publicity, it's about the fact that those "near Russia" Ukrainians are fighting hard to stay out of Russia
Which is probably bursting a lot of bubbles in Beijing.
Because I'm sure there were a LOT of people pushing a conquest of Taiwan on the grounds that "they're really Chinese, very few would actually resist us."
And that story line doesn't float any more
To get a good sense of the power differential between the US and Russia/China, consider where the hotspots are. Mexico? Canada? The Caribbean? The coast of California? No, they're in Eastern Ukraine, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. US efforts to maintain and/or incorporate Ukraine and Taiwan into a US-backed sphere of influence will inevitably provoke a hostile reaction from Russia and China. NATO expansion and demands for more explicit security guarantees to Taiwan add nothing to US national security while simultaneously provoking the ire of major regional powers. America's simultaneous denialism about relative decline and mythology about the "unipolar moment" has led the US into one costly, destructive, counterproductive intervention after another.
Just how important is Taiwan, anyway? What do you think you'll pay--corrected by the multiplier you get from watching the Uke thing--for an island all of whose useful parts are destroyed
When it comes to Ukraine and Taiwan Russia and China don’t appear motivated by economics…
…but then again game theory suggests being hawkish when opponents are dovish is a winning strategy.
Achilles said...
How would Ukraine save Taiwan?
Russia is becoming a Chinese satellite. Russia is now dependent on China for financial service.
China just got access to all the Oil and Coal they need and they will be getting it at a discount.
Poor Achilles, just so desperate to lose.
You know, you'd do a LOT better focusing on Biden's failures (see: energy policy and funding Putin), then being just so desperate that America loses in this.
Now, exactly HOW is china going to get all that coal and oil from Russia? What infrastructure do they have, right now, for delivering it that way?
How much will it cost to build that infrastructure, how long will it take?
Then there's the reality that both Russia and China are corrupt. So, how long will it take before they get actually good, functioning infrastructure?
Russia is only China's satellite so long as Putin is in charge of Russia. Is Putin going to spend the next 20 years hiding out in the Urals?
Where do the rest of the Russian oligarchs want to be partying? Paris? London? Beijing?
Russia isn't all Putin, any more than America is all Biden*
@Koot Katmandu:
Then they take Taiwan. If they try too early to take Taiwan it would probably be WW3 with Nukes - West against both Russia and China and they know that.
This confuses statecraft with James Bond villainry. It isn't even clear what "take Taiwan" means. We have no obligations to defend Taiwan let alone commit ourselves to national suicide on her behalf. If the Soviet invasions of Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, or Afghanistan in 1979 did not trigger nuclear confrontation, why would this?
Thank you Richard Aubrey for posting something sensible.
Balfegor said...
This seems a little like wishful thinking. There was some brief outrage about the crackdowns in Hong Kong, complete with social media, etc. but China seems to have weathered it fine. Shots of bombed out Taipei apartment buildings would be worse, sure, but I think they can probably weather that too.
The significance here is that taking over Hong Kong was easy. And there were therefore a lot of people in Beijing saying that Taiwan would be easy, too.
Ukraine blows that up
And to a much greater extent than Russia, China has taken steps to protect its economy from foreign interference. For example, I think China UnionPay still has an overwhelming share of the domestic credit payment market, with only limited penetration by foreign companies, so the Visa/Mastercard issue wouldn't be crippling in the same way. Of course, its economy is highly dependent on exports, giving foreign powers leverage, but by the same token, China is also the largest trading partner for many -- perhaps most? -- countries around the globe. So isolating them would be a lot more painful than isolating Russia.
The other countries won't quickly have hordes of out of work people looking for someone to kill. China will
For that matter, does anyone know how big Taiwan's actual Navy / naval power is? China depends rather heavily on goods coming from the sea. How much of that can Taiwan destroy?
So now China has to have supplies on hand to support its (now more expensive) invasion of Taiwan, PLUS to keep the country going.
It's probably not the brutality or the threat of foreign reaction/retaliation so much as the possibility that conquering the Republic won't be quick, but will drag on with humiliating scenes of scores of PRC tanks getting blown up by Javelins and leaking back into the mainland. That would undermine the prestige of the Communist regime domestically, and I doubt they could suppress the news fully.
You're thinking too small.
How about the pictures oh hundreds to thousands of dead bodies floating in teh water, when their landing craft where hit by Javelins or their equivalent?
What you can never forget is the results of China's One Child policy.
Virtually every single Chinese soldier is the only son of parents who are only children. He is the sole future hope of six people.
Despite China's huge population, their military is going to have to be very sensitive to casualties.
And then there's the other side ofter time pressure: They can't expect the pathetically weak Biden* Admin to last more than 4 years. If they understand anything about US politics, they understand that even the Democrats will have to try to actually fight back if China invades during election season.
So from this summer to November is out. Trying to launch an amphibious invasion in the Winter is probably out, and there's probably no time in 2024 where the weather is good enough, and the Presidential campaign is quite enough.
So, can they be completely ready by Summer 2023?
Will the Biden* Admin sell Taiwan enough defensive weapons to make it impossible for China to be ready by summer 2023?
If Ukraine collapsed quickly and/or the West did nothing to oppose Russia's invasion, that could be taken as a green light to China to invade Taiwan. However, events as they are unfolding are a strong signal to China to cool it for another decade or two.
China only cares about what is good for China.
I wish that we in the US had that same focus, but we don't.
Because we're a nation of morons...
The ChiComs are taking notes and adjusting strategy, that's all.
"Footage of terrified civilians hiding in the Taipei metro would hardly burnish that image."
Fine. But no one gave a damn about the slightly less brutal treatment of Hong Kong.
"Could the Ukraine war save Taiwan?"
No. The PRC will try to get its way without war but make a move when it feels ready. It has seen Western reluctance for a real fight and is far too important to be cut off from the rest of the world. What are we gonna do--hold Chinese students in the U.S. hostage? If China threatens to destroy TSMC facilities, how would we respond?
China annexes Tibet. China conducts violent border disputes. China maintains practical and actual slavery and diversity. China chooses one-child/selective-child. A peaceful, progressive power.
Despite their unflagging loyalty amongst the Hard Core Trump right, Putin and the Russian Kleptocracy have united Western Democracies.
China sees this. China depends on exports to rich Western Democracies. They cannot continue business as usual if their trading partners gets reduced to India, Venezuela, Russia and North Korea. What would economic hardship or collapse do to the stability and passivity of the People's Republic expanded middle and lower middle working class?
Reading the tea leaves advises discretion.
"Despite their unflagging loyalty amongst the Hard Core Trump"
You mean the people who have been warning about the "interagency consensus" leading to this war for years?
should we expect CCP to know more about SunTzu or less?
China's logic with Taiwan is and has always been whether they can get away with it. If Mao could have gotten away with it, he would have annexed the island sometime in the 1950s. For a long time, the Chinese were basically incapable of performing a proper naval invasion of the island, even without the United States fleet getting in the way. They were also economically irrelevant and their military was genuinely unimpressive except for its numbers. Those things are less and less true now, though how much so I do not hazard a guess.
Right now, the state of the world is basically in chaos on almost every level. Any decision comes with a large helping of uncertainty. Whether the Chinese will be risk averse or embrace the crazy is impossible to predict.
If I'm gonna die for a word...
My word is "Kuomintang."
The other thing that must give the Chinese pause is if the Russians are having trouble invading when they just need to drive across the border where the biggest obstacle is mud, an invasion across the 80-100 mile Tiawan Straight may not go as currently planned. Amphibious landings are hard and the Chinese don't have any experience in modern times. Any plans would likely include airborne troops and the complete failure of Russian "elite" VDV has to be eye opening. Based the Russian experience the thought of crossing nearly 100 miles of sea to attack a mountainous island loaded with antiship and antiaircraft missiles and artillery can't be pleasant.
@Static Ping:
China's logic with Taiwan is and has always been whether they can get away with it. If Mao could have gotten away with it, he would have annexed the island sometime in the 1950s.
What is the "it" that "they can get away with"? How would a large-scale military invasion and prolonged occupation of Taiwan be an improvement over China's current condition?
Right now, the state of the world is basically in chaos on almost every level. Any decision comes with a large helping of uncertainty.
This is always true. One of the basic tenets of realism is the anarchic nature of the international system. That said, the international system of today is much less unstable and dangerous than it was when the Soviet Union existed.
The US dropped over 25,000 bombs on seven different countries in 2016 alone. OF course, when they do it, it's terrorism; when we do it, it's counterterrorism. It's why Ted Cruz could get a thunderous applause out of a lame, pseudo-macho remark like "carpet bomb Syria." For the warmonger, the problem is always that the US is not being destructive and brutal enough.
Given the incompetence, idiocy and general ineptitude the Biden junta has prominently displayed in the first 14 months of their Reign of Error, Russia and China would be foolish not to make whatever aggressive moves they have contemplated. No rush… they’ll have plenty of time to exploit their advantage.
Tim, it's possible to be anti war and not pro Putin. Just read J Farmer's thoughtful posts. But when you repeat with Glee the FSB fab talking points, you have gone over to the Vlad side whether you're intending to or not. Giving you the benefit of the doubt I put you in the useful idiot category.
I am not sure China takes signals from what happens in Eastern Europe. NATO did not intervene in Hungary in 1956 or Czechoslovakia in 1968. And not much response to Georgia 2008 or Ukraine 2014. But the US and allies fought long, bloody wars in Korea and Vietnam. It was ready to fight to protect tiny Quemoy and Matsu for Taiwan against PRC. There is a reason China spends so much to try to be able to counter the strength of the US Navy.
" But when you repeat with Glee the FSB fab talking points,"
I don't repeat talking points. Joe Biden made the same points before he became senile. He said that the only risk coming from Russia was a reaction to expanding NATO east.
https://twitter.com/AlexeiArora/status/1500824118454898689
Maybe you are the one repeating talking points. I don't automatically believe or disbelieve anything depending on who says it. I have objected to every move that the US and the Europeans are now rueing regarding becoming dependent on Russian oil and at Putin's mercy. I have many times made the point that restricting supply, as was done when Keystone was killed, just funded Putin's army. Achilles has also made this point repeatedly. Now we are "Putin apologists."
Ukraine is a sewer, I have been saying that for years. How many times have I posted a link to that New York Times story that was intended to kneecap Trump in August of 2016 of the fake "Black Ledger"
I have made the point since it has been known, for a couple of years now, that the "whistleblower" and Vindman met with these Ukrainian politicians in the White House during the Obama Administration.
The fact is that this war was foreseeable, and preventable, and is a war of choice by both Putin and Biden.
tim in vermont said...
I don't repeat talking points. Joe Biden made the same points before he became senile. He said that the only risk coming from Russia was a reaction to expanding NATO east.
Joe Biden's been a moron all his life.
Anyone who believes that Russia was never a threat to its neighbors until NATO decided to expand eastward is at least as much of a moron as Joe.
Seriously? "They invaded Georgia because NATO was expanding eastward"? WTF?
Or is it "Georgia is part of the Russian 'sphere of influence', so of course it's right and proper that Putin invade there whenever he wishes"?
What other countries were / are in Russias "sphere of interest", so it's "not a risk" if Russia decides to invade them?
Do you object to the Chinese enslaving people? Because it clearly doesn't seem to bother you when Putin does it
All this whining about keystone. Keystone was in litigation when Biden dropped the hammer. The litigation was many years from being resolved. Same with the prospect of actual commercial extraction in new Alaska leases.
The Taiwan problem is easily solved.
Taiwan just tests a nuke in the South China Sea and it all ends.
They have the technical expertise and economic power.
They should not trust anyone else, particularly not a Country with a senile puppet who shits his pants in public and has taken millions of dollars in bribes from China.
Greg The Class Traitor said...
Poor Achilles, just so desperate to lose.
I have decided you just don't know how to read or comprehend above a certain level that is limited by your over emotional reactions.
If you want to have an intelligent discussion let me know.
J. Farmer said...
What is the "it" that "they can get away with"? How would a large-scale military invasion and prolonged occupation of Taiwan be an improvement over China's current condition?
The problem is that dictatorships are not always rational nor do they always have perfect information.
Russia invading Ukraine is turning out very poorly for Putin. But he thought he would be able to topple Ukraine easily. He was also misled by the idiocy coming out of Biden's mouth. Biden made it seem that there was going to be little or no reaction to an invasion of Ukraine.
Putin was given a rosy assessment by generals and intelligence officials of Russian capabilities and Ukranian resistance levels much the same way Bush and that administration was misled. Both used these rosy projections to do what they always wanted to do.
China is is a very similar situation to Russia right now. It is quite plausible that Chinese Generals give Xi a rosy picture of Chinese Military capabilities and tell him they can easily conquer Taiwan. Xi obviously wants it to be true.
@Readering:
But the US and allies fought long, bloody wars in Korea and Vietnam. It was ready to fight to protect tiny Quemoy and Matsu for Taiwan against PRC. There is a reason China spends so much to try to be able to counter the strength of the US Navy.
The key difference is that Korea, Vietnam, and the Taiwan Strait Crisis all occurred within the geopolitical context of the Cold War. We had a defense treaty with the Republic of China, and we did not have diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China. That alliance was abandoned over 40 years ago, and the Cold War ended 30 years ago.
@Iman:
Russia and China would be foolish not to make whatever aggressive moves they have contemplated. No rush… they’ll have plenty of time to exploit their advantage.
Sure, because the only thing preventing Russia and China from taking "whatever aggressive moves they have contemplated" is US militarism. They're certainly not constrained by capacity, national economic and security interests, internal domestic constraints, or strategic/tactical limitations.
No, it's not good for Taiwan in any way unless it motivates the US to increase the readiness of its armed forces and our president learns from his mistakes.
What the world thinks of aggression is surprisingly flexible. If you win, everyone is ok with it.
The situation in Europe is pretty simple. The Baltic States, Poland, and a lot of what used to be the USSR empire are in NATO. All NATO states are pledged to defend them. They have no choice. If Putin pulls a Ukraine on the Baltics, or another NATO country, NATO has to respond in force, and presumably Russia knows that.
China and Taiwan are differnt. If China is thinking about annexing Taiwan, they can't be certain that the US would support Taiwan. I think we need to make clear that we would do so.
tim in vermont said...
Ukraine is a sewer, I have been saying that for years
Yes, it is
So is Russia
The key points are:
1: Russia becomes a bigger threat to us if they have control of Ukraine's resources
2: Ukraine becomes a worse sewer if Putin gets control
So everybody but Putin and his suck-ups loses if Putin gets control
What part of that are you unable to grasp?
"All this whining about keystone. Keystone was in litigation when Biden dropped the hammer."
True enough, thanks to Obama-Biden, and, as we now have learned, Putin funded opposition. It was being built, however.
Some of the things the Biden* Admin and Democrats in DC did to support Putin while screwing us over:
https://freebeacon.com/politics/how-dems-helped-spike-gas-prices/
Post a Comment