Ran into a friend today, and within moments he was crowing about how Trump's wall doesn't work . The older I get the more I realize the great truth that politics makes people stupid.
Narr I don't think the Puppet-in-Chief will make it to his next birthday
what is peoples' predictions for how long until we smarten up and replace President Shitforbrains with a crow
They're doing a good job given what they have to work with. RGB was healthy as a horse until they couldn't fake it anymore. They could get tired of propping him up but Weekend at Bernies ran two whole movies. I'll take the over on the short dated guesses...
Vaccines are ending covid. Remember what this means: the let grandma die/herd immunity types like Yancey Ward and Achilles and Pants were wrong. Dangerously, desperately, deeply wrong.
Being wrong about a complex issue is not shameful. Doubling down long after your error has become obvious kinda is though. Seen a lot of that from our Covidiot crew.
Can't believe there are people willing to die on the women's NCAA basketball hill. There are so many women's sports that are infinitely more watchable than BB.
As we learn more and more about the depravations of leftist pedophile Brett Bromme, suddenly now the Wisconsin dems are trying hard to pull a gaslight us that they didn't know or were only tangentially familar with him. Like Jonathon Gruber and Norman Tsu, democrats and left suddenly "never met" fellow Democrat scumbags after they have.
If you watch the video of the murder you will see near the end one of the teens express concern and anxiety. She walks right past the dying man without a glance, loudly exclaiming that her phone is still in the car.
Megan Rapinoe: " Despite all the wins, I'm still paid less than men who do the same job that I do."
You don't do the same job that men do. They play men's soccer. That people want to watch. That makes money. Fuck you.
Not only that, the reason she gets paid less is because her union signed a contract that pays her less.
By the way, I have a real beef with Rapinoe. I blame her for all the wokeness in the last several years. USWNT had built up a lot of good will over the years, and Rapinoe is rapidly pissing it all away. I won't watch anymore as long as she's playing.
Cui Bono? One of the main effects of wokeness has been on supposed “working class” political parties and unions. Wokeness has led them to abandon the working class entirely, and we see unions supporting or even demanding more invigilation over workers and their lives. I saw a post today about a worker questioned by his *union* about his tweets.
Engelbert What douchey thing did you do to earn it? You'll have to remind me. I sorta remember you doing some dirt bag dishonest misrepresentation of something.
Got our 2nd vaccine shots today. Also ordered two "I've been vaccinated" face masks. After the shots, we took our chiweenie, Sadie, to Marymoor Park in Redmond. Perfect day for a walk along the Sammamish River. High, thin clouds modulated the sunshine so it wasn't too bright. There were lots of people out walking their dogs in the off-leach area next to the river. There are openings in the fence to allow the dogs to swim in the river. Sadie is not a swimmer and wanted nothing to do with the river.
"What douchey thing did you do to earn it? You'll have to remind me. I sorta remember you doing some dirt bag dishonest misrepresentation of something."
Let me help you here Ken (For a guy who cast aspersions over earlier comments made by others, your memory sucks).
Commenter A: “We are officially a banana republic.”
I think it's unfair that transmen can't compete and get medals like transwomen. My idea is that regular men should have to carry extra weights to equitize their strength privilege so that they compete with transmen as equity equals. And come to think of it, transwoman should also have extra weights to equitize the strength advantage of early-man-being. Horses have equity handicaps and people should learn from horses. Equity weights for equity sports.
Humperdink said... It appears the DOJ's "throw the book" scheme towards the January 6 miscreants is being shredded by the trial judges
“Last time we were here 30 days ago, I was convinced that it was a plan to execute an incursion on the Capitol building,” the judge told Caldwell’s attorney. “You’ve raised some evidence that, I think, rebuts that notion.”
The judge has since released other defendants, noting there’s no evidence they assaulted anyone at the Capitol or, in some cases, don’t appear to be as involved in the planning before Jan. 6.
{U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta agreed in February to keep Thomas Caldwell, who authorities have portrayed as a leader of the conspiracy, locked up while he awaits trial, saying the evidence showed he “engaged in planning and communications with others ... to plan a potential military-like incursion on the Capitol on January the 6th.”
But after Caldwell’s lawyer challenged that assessment, the judge reversed his decision and released Caldwell to home confinement. Mehta said there’s no evidence he entered the Capitol on Jan. 6 or had been plotting to do so.}
Gosh. The corrupt DoJ is lying so much, has overcharged meager to non-existent evidence, Judges realizing the DoJ attorneys are running fast and loose with their pleadings. Its almost like the media narrative is just that...narrative...unsupported by fact.
I know it well. There's always a bald eagle fishing the river.
I'm closer to Magnuson Park. I bought a wildlife camera. I am astounded by the wildlife flourishing (beavers, otters, coyote) on the old Naval Aviation Base.
Can't believe there are people willing to die on the women's NCAA basketball hill.
All they are asking for is justice and equity. But systemic sexism is holding them back. The latest outrage I saw with my own eyes happened just today -- They were showing the women's basketball on ESPN2. Not ESPN, but ESPN-TWO. Like the women are second class or something.
Our two mallards returned to the pond this morning, as they do every spring. They'll hang around for a couple of weeks and move on. No sign that either one of them changed genders over the winter.
Look at the data. The cases dropped long before the vaccine was widespread enough to make a difference. It's starting to help now, but the widespread natural immunity did the lion's share of the work so far. Data is your friend.
Sometimes you want to put yourself on the country (jury trial) and sometimes you want a bench trial.
The Capitol defendants should opt for the trial by a judge. If they ever get that far. The defendants should all call the bluff of the prosecutors and refuse to take a plea.
So I was out walking around and discovered a place that I had been wondering about.
We have a rather large deer population that you might see around dusk. I always wondered where they hung out during the day and presumably where they slept.
I found out. I was walking in a little valley area in the woods and spotted a whole herd of them just standing there behind some fallen trees. I decided to stop moving and just watch them. The women were all just going about their business, but there was one strapping young buck who was eyeballing me and I didn't want to bother with him coming over to mix it up with me.
Does getting Covid make you immune or not? The graph deceptively ignores the natural immunity which was peaking at year end - the same time the vaccine started and the cased stared dropping. Assuming the drop is all due to the vaccine is just deceptive. Cases had just peaked, which means the rate of natural immunity also peaked. This has happened thousands of time in human history without vaccines. Vaccines are great, but data is instructive only when it's presented honestly.
But that first depends on honest collection of data. I doubt we will ever know the true story of kung flu.
We can't. The data have been so screwed with and poorly collected that I suspect there will never be a usable data set to figure out what happened in 2020.
23 million Americans have tested positive and now have natural immunity, and that's only a fraction of those who actually are but were never tested. Those are exactly the people most likely to catch it and spread it, because they actually did. In practice, it is the most precisely targeted immunity of all. A large number of people getting the vaccine already have natural immunity, and therefor the vaccine is doing nothing in those cases.
Obviously if some of you folks are taking idiot vaccine, it doesn’t work. But the covid vaccine is quite effective, and it will end the strain on the health system, and the waves of outbreaks, and the basis cited for lockdowns. By June covid will no longer be such a big deal in the USA. It will take longer in Canada. Covid will no longer be the major disease killer.
Walter The ironic thing is that right now Rappinoe is doing her job better than she does it normally. Her job is to attract attention. That is what sells advertising and tickets and merchandise.
From where I live I take a footpath down to Willows then follow the path down to the old railroad bridge across the river just north of Redmond Way. (There is an eagle's nest just north of the bridge.) From there I've walked as far south as the northern end of Marymoor park.
bagoh, I think the current line is that the shot (theoretically?) protects against more variants than naturally acquired immunity via a particular strain. I don't know if there's much evidence for that or not.... Eventually we will have data involving populations outside of the shot in arms directives.
Flu vaccines have not ended the flu, and you have to get a new flu shot every year.....which is nothing but a guess. A dollar for everyone who gets a flu shot, then winds up with the flu.
There will never be enough vaccines to overcome the hundreds of variants and mutations.
Exit the vaccine merry-go-round, and build your natural immunity which was designed to fight off 99% of anything going around.
Mike in Snoqualmie - we frequently visit the Marymoor off-leash park. We don't wear masks. But I'll be looking for your "we've been vaccinated" mask. :-)
Ignorance - occasionally walk along the slough - but more frequently kayak. Not this year yet.
COVID isn't going to disappear. The vaccine may reduce it for a while, but you will have to get new vaccines on a regular basis, and even those won't eliminate the virus. It is endemic and will continue to kill old people from now on. We will likely become increasingly resistant against it as a population as our natural adaptive immunity develops against it, but influenza never disappeared and we have developed and deployed dozens of different vaccines against all strains of it.
The test for just how effective this vaccine really is will come next Fall when we reenter the upcycle for respiratory viruses. If we continue to test for COVID and its variants at 1.5 million tests/day, I don't think it likely we ever fall below 10,000 new cases/day, and those 10,000/day will lead to 30 deaths/day on an ongoing basis based on how we count COVID deaths- out of 10,000 people, statistically 30 of them will die of something within a year's time in the US.
I am just saying, don't take victory laps over the vaccine. What worries me more is what happens if 500 people/day die of COVID next Fall. I wouldn't be particularly alarmed by such a development, but most people aren't me, and I could easily see us reverting to a full lockdown by next November in a new panic because the vaccine "didn't end COVID". Only an idiot would claim that it will.
Don't overpromise success, and you will find failure is less frightening.
And, finally, if the entire US had followed Sweden's example, like a lot of the Southern states of the US did, guess what- we would still have about 562,012 deaths right now attributed to COVID.
The government mandated interventions didn't work. If you don't believe me, then explain why Europe did worse than the US? They followed the strict lockdown and masking rules far better than we did and used more force of law as coercion. They should be better off, right?
I don't wear masks when I'm outside, just when required in a store. There's zero risk of catching anything during a passing encounter. I see too many people either wearing masks or quickly donning a mask as you pass them.
I don't normally go to Marymoor, but that's Pam's favorite park for walking Sadie when it's not raining. She walks Sadie at Ardmore Park in Bellevue on rainy days. Pam takes Sadie in the late afternoon. I take Sadie to Bridle Trails Corner Park and View Point Park (adjacent to each other) in the morning.
Sadie looks like a miniature German Shepard, black and tan. All 11-lbs of her.
there will never be a usable data set to figure out what happened in 2020.
TBH, there seldom is. For instance the Flu data is a complicated estimate made after the fact. My early prediction at the beginning of the pandemic was that there would be years of argument after it was over. Post hoc analysis, aka data butchery, is a great way to pass time.
It's a bit problematic when misleading tests/testing levels are incentivized. Look to those less able and willing to hamstring their economies for perspective.
Looks like Syracuse is going to come up short. Live by the 3, die by the 3 looking at the box score.
Am following the game score over at Yahoo. I haven't watched a single solitary minute of college basketball all year. I haven't even glanced at the ESPN feeds at the gym during one. I have almost reached the point where I don't care about sports any longer. I wonder if I will even watch the Olympics if they are held. I was, even in 2016, a pretty avid watcher of the Olympics- especially all track and field and the swimming events.
Measles and polio haven't disappeared, but they have ceased to be a problem (in the vaccinated). What's the difference? (Sincere question, I'm not arguing a position.)
You can use the CDC's excess deaths as long as they are careful in assigning all other causes, and I don't see any reason to believe they won't do that properly. The main issue going forward is going to be excess deaths from other causes due to our strictly rationing all other medical care. This is likely going to cause a minimum of 500K excess deaths in the US (the world wide toll from the needless panic will cause a lot of death from starvation, too, just not in the western world) from heart disease, diabetes, and cancer over the next 2-3 years. Those are deaths the Karen's won't cop to, however.
Mr Trump, a Republican, said: "We're going to be opening relatively soon... I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter."
He added in a subsequent interview: "Easter is a very special day for me."
Only one time did I go to a hospital when I had the flu. I couldn't keep anything down, so I got really dehydrated. They stuck an IV in me, and a couple of hours later I was going home. Any other time, I just stayed home, drank lots of fluid and shivered. Didn't call the doctor, so there would have been no record of my illness. Tracking flu accurately is a fool's game. Only the really sick will be recorded.
Half of the country was reopened not long after last Easter, Mutaman, but I suppose you don't know that because you don't live in that part of the country. Where do you live Mutaman- it would be informative to know what policies your state got with its interventions. What say you?
I've gotten sick from the flu once in 40 years. I suspect that I have been exposed to it more than that and simply fought it off. I've never had a flu shot.
I think it is hard for people who have been stuck in the northeast, midwest, and the west coast to really understand that pretty much everywhere else in the US has been mostly normal since early last May. I didn't realize this blindness until a few weeks ago when it Texas eliminated the last of its COVID mandates and the online leftists went batshit crazy claiming Texas was going to explode in cases and deaths. It became to clear to me that none of them understood that Texas had eliminated almost all the state level restrictions last Spring, not in February.
It really is two movies playing on the same screen in this regard- the red states never shut down to the extent that the blue states did, and they reopened 10 months ago.
My oldest sister and her family lives just outside of Philadelphia- according to her, except for walks outside in their neighborhood, they have stayed inside the house since last March ordering everything for home delivery- they haven't gone anywhere. I was just stunned when my mother told me this. I don't know how the people in states like PA survived such a thing, especially since it didn't work to stop the virus even there.
They would determine what is the optimum low-level exposure to trigger an immune response without overloading the system and leading to serious symptoms.
I was flat on my back for two weeks with the Korean Death Flu in '95. Ever since then I've gottten the shots every year. Don't know if it has actually prevented anything, but after that experience a day of being sore-armed and mopey seems a pretty small price.
There were options to vaccine just like that, but no government officials apparently were brave enough to resist the Karens- not even Trump initially. If we had just isolated the elderly in the nursing homes, and those elderly living at home could have done exactly what my sister did with outside help from their families and neighbors, and everyone else had just continued to live their lives normally, we could have reached this same point in immunity level a half year ago or more, and probably would have killed about half as many people because they wouldn't have had to be isolated for over a year like we tried to do.
The British had the right idea early on, but Johnson and his cabinet chickened out. We at least have the Swedish example though- not perfect, but proof that the government inventions don't matter.
Mark You are talking about variolation. I posted quite a bit about it early on. I got basically no response from anyone here. No surprise, most of the Covidiots had no interest at all in what might or might not work, just what might or might not help Trump.
No western country pursued seriously, which I think was a mistake.
Lest anyone be fooled by Yancey Ward's smokescreen, Sweden had a worse outcome than any of its neighbors, and abandoned its policies. Nor was it ever without interventions. Upper schools were closed, large gatherings were prohibited, etc. They had looser restrictions than most, but still not insignificant restrictions nonetheless.
"Most people infected with the poliovirus have no signs of illness and are never aware they have been infected. These symptomless people carry the virus in their intestines and can “silently” spread the infection to thousands of others before the first case of polio paralysis emerges.
For this reason, the World Health Organization (WHO) considers just a single confirmed case of polio paralysis to be evidence of an epidemic – particularly in countries where very few cases occur."
Sweden had a worse outcome than any of its neighbors, and abandoned its policies. Nor was it ever without interventions. Upper schools were closed, large gatherings were prohibited, etc. They had looser restrictions than most, but still not insignificant restrictions nonetheless.
Either link to something that shows that's true, or just admit you're pulling it out of your ass because you still have something stuck in your craw over Covid. You've been a first rate asshole to anyone who's disagreed with you when it comes to Covid, so it's hard for anyone who can look at this objectively to not be skeptical of your views here.
There were NO COUNTRIES who had no deaths from Covid, so the "Swedish Deaths, Meh" comment is pure bullshit. Control your emotions and put up or shut up.
FWIW My wife had two Pfizers, no ill effects. I've had one Pfizer and was head achey for a day and moderate depression for several days. Spoke to a woman who had one Pfizer, then spent several days crying, no energy went straight to bed for the duration. Number two Pfizer is Monday.
Whether the longer or shorter regression periods provide better estimates of normal mortality in 2019 and 2020, it seems clear that excess deaths, as a proportion of the population, were much higher in England than in Sweden. Excess deaths in England per 100,000 population were about four times those in Sweden for 2019 and 2020 combined, and about double those in Sweden for 2020 alone
Other factors?
America had Planned Parent/hood, social contagion driving herd stampedes, unsanitary conditions forcing cross-contamination, and denial and stigmatization of effective, inexpensive, low-risk treatments. The exponential declines in spring and then fall preceded lockdowns, mask orders, and vaccine distributions.
Yes, with a large minority with preexisting immunity, a large minority with naturally acquired immunity through exposure, with inexpensive, effective, low-risk treatments, and low risk of mortality, experimental vaccines are best distributed to high-risk populations.
Ken B, Very likely, at least 1/3 to 1/2 the population has already has Covid. In addition, there are significant numbers of people with some level of natural immunity. Those two factors, more than the vaccinations, are what is stopping the pandemic. The vaccinations obviously help, but they are about #3 on the list.
Just saw a very on-point tweet: Media asked Ted Cruz to put on a mask during his press briefing the other day, but they never say anything about that to Jen Psaki during the White House press briefings
"If medical science wasn't so politicized, they would consider some intentional low-level COVID exposure to innoculate large groups."
One of the big missed opportunities was the colleges in spring, 2020. Should have just left those kids there to mix, instead of sending them home to spread to more vulnerable people.
I see too many people either wearing masks or quickly donning a mask as you pass them.
We were out and about yesterday. Little craft show. masks maybe 10%. I endured that, so went down the road to a gun show. Mask usage about the same.
All the vulnerable are vaccinated. Why all the theater with masks?
We have been mostly normal since last April. Restaurants, traveling, family gatherings.
Lets not forget, cases fell off a cliff January 8th. Experts here tell us a huge spike in cases happen 2 weeks after a super spreader event....like gatherings for Christmas. Covid was dead on that date.
Who is still dying today? We still have 500 deaths/day? Why
Longest game in NCAA hockey playoffs ends in 5th overtime. NoDak 2 UMD 3. 142m 21s. A freshmen scored the winner for his second goal of the season. UMD goalie left in he 4th OT because of cramps. UMD had scored the winning goal in the 1st OT but were offside by about an inch. Hell of a game.
Wait ... you're vaccinated... and you are going to virtue signal to all the Karens by wearing masks? What am I missing here?
I'd really like a mask that said: "I've been vaccinated. Why am I wearing this F* mask?", but I haven't found any like that. I'm only wearing it wear required, not in the great outdoors. The point is to flood the zone with people wearing these masks to show how ridiculous it is to wear masks after being vaccinated. I'm also going to challenge the door guards about mask wearing.
Sweden's restrictions were the lightest in the entire European continent by far. They performed no worse than Europe as a whole. They are the negative control vs what the UK, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Hungary, etc. did. Yes, Norway, Finland, and Denmark did better, but those countries also had much lighter restrictions than did the other European countries with worse outcomes.
Do you ever tire of lying, Karen B? Ever? Sweden's restrictions mirrored those in the Southern Unites States- basically some right at the start of the panic that were quickly removed within a month once they realized the IFR was well under 1%.
And they panic later and apply more restrictions. I know this because I read one story after another last Summer and Fall criticizing them for not doing so. I even linked some of those stories here in the comment sections pointing out that the real reason Sweden was being criticized was because the Karens didn't want Sweden to be the counter-example. And on cue, here is our resident Karen B trying to deny Sweden is a counter-example.
You are a cretin, Ken, and a liar, and everyone here knows it except for Inga. You should think about how Inga is basically your only supporter here before spouting off about this again.
Also, Karen B, pull up a comment you wrote supporting variolation, because I don't remember you supporting it. I know I did- I even linked to Robin Hansen's controversial essays on the matter at the time. I even wrote a comment saying I would be a willing subject for such an experiment.
Here is what I remember about your positions from last March that I disagreed with, but prove me wrong by linking to the threads where you didn't support any of the following:
(1) Short lockdowns to flatten the curve; (2) COVID was going to kill 2-11 million Americans if we behaved like Sweden was doing at that time; (3) Mask mandates would stop the spread of COVID (though I remember this topic arose later in the Spring as mandates spread); (4) I argued that the short lockdowns would morph into much longer ones, you disagreed; (5) That track and trace would work effectively in the US;
Where I remember us agreeing was on vigorously using off the shelf treatments to mitigate the symptoms of COVID, and on isolating the elderly and immune compromised in nursing homes or their actual homes.
I definitely don't remember you supporting variolation through any pratical spread of herd immunity. What I remember is you arguing vociferously against letting the virus spread naturally. You may have supported small experiments with variolation, so prove it.
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127 comments:
First!
Our hostess did not blog on the capture of the gang that whacked the Swiss pine tree last November in Madison.
Initial report put damage at $13K. Felony level?
Who shot and killed Ashli Babbitt?
Temporarily last!
"Initial report put damage at $13K. Felony level?"
Was it a political protest by leftists? Then no charges will be tried.
"Temporarily last"
Hah! When it comes to losing, I am undefeated!
So, what is peoples' predictions for how long until we smarten up and replace President Shitforbrains with a crow?
Goodwife Narr got her second dose yesterday and has the hangover. Swollen arm, and listless, spent most of the day in bed with general malaise . . .
Narr
Never trust a Frenchie
Democrat fucktards!
The Cackler seems pretty crow-like to me . . .
Ran into a friend today, and within moments he was crowing about how Trump's wall doesn't work . The older I get the more I realize the great truth that politics makes people stupid.
Narr
I don't think the Puppet-in-Chief will make it to his next birthday
No, a crow would be better than VP Kneepads, too.
what is peoples' predictions for how long until we smarten up and replace President Shitforbrains with a crow
They're doing a good job given what they have to work with. RGB was healthy as a horse until they couldn't fake it anymore. They could get tired of propping him up but Weekend at Bernies ran two whole movies. I'll take the over on the short dated guesses...
Vaccines are ending covid. Remember what this means: the let grandma die/herd immunity types like Yancey Ward and Achilles and Pants were wrong. Dangerously, desperately, deeply wrong.
Being wrong about a complex issue is not shameful. Doubling down long after your error has become obvious kinda is though. Seen a lot of that from our Covidiot crew.
Pealosi's wall seems to work, doesn't it? One, it's finished and B, it's backed up by the national guard. Funny how that works.
So nobody bit on my Thomas Berger "Little Big Man" reference earlier.
No Bergerites here? A bit surprising.
Narr
I may have to reread it now
Yes but the congressman keep escaping
Can't believe there are people willing to die on the women's NCAA basketball hill. There are so many women's sports that are infinitely more watchable than BB.
I actually like to watch women's ice hockey now and then. They play a more fundamentally sound game than the men do.
But women's BB just sucks.
As we learn more and more about the depravations of leftist pedophile Brett Bromme, suddenly now the Wisconsin dems are trying hard to pull a gaslight us that they didn't know or were only tangentially familar with him. Like Jonathon Gruber and Norman Tsu, democrats and left suddenly "never met" fellow Democrat scumbags after they have.
It appears the DOJ's "throw the book" scheme towards the January 6 miscreants is being shredded by the trial judges.
How many riots will there be for the murdered Pakistani Uber driver? My prediction... zero.
Vaccines are ending covid.
These are four words sorely in need of definitions. Ambiguous babble.
Megan Rapinoe: " Despite all the wins, I'm still paid less than men who do the same job that I do."
You don't do the same job that men do. They play men's soccer. That people want to watch. That makes money. Fuck you.
If you watch the video of the murder you will see near the end one of the teens express concern and anxiety. She walks right past the dying man without a glance, loudly exclaiming that her phone is still in the car.
The Uses And Abuses Of ‘Woke Capital’
(D) leadership seems to love flying flags at half-staff.
Pennsylvania Flag Orders
Megan Rapinoe: " Despite all the wins, I'm still paid less than men who do the same job that I do."
You don't do the same job that men do. They play men's soccer. That people want to watch. That makes money. Fuck you.
Not only that, the reason she gets paid less is because her union signed a contract that pays her less.
By the way, I have a real beef with Rapinoe. I blame her for all the wokeness in the last several years. USWNT had built up a lot of good will over the years, and Rapinoe is rapidly pissing it all away. I won't watch anymore as long as she's playing.
Who knew any US soccer players got paid?
Cui Bono? One of the main effects of wokeness has been on supposed “working class” political parties and unions. Wokeness has led them to abandon the working class entirely, and we see unions supporting or even demanding more invigilation over workers and their lives. I saw a post today about a worker questioned by his *union* about his tweets.
@Yancey Ward and Achilles and Pants. At least Ken B did not label you as douches as he did me. He's one classy guy.
Engelbert
What douchey thing did you do to earn it? You'll have to remind me. I sorta remember you doing some dirt bag dishonest misrepresentation of something.
Flu vaccines are ending flu .........
Got our 2nd vaccine shots today. Also ordered two "I've been vaccinated" face masks. After the shots, we took our chiweenie, Sadie, to Marymoor Park in Redmond. Perfect day for a walk along the Sammamish River. High, thin clouds modulated the sunshine so it wasn't too bright. There were lots of people out walking their dogs in the off-leach area next to the river. There are openings in the fence to allow the dogs to swim in the river. Sadie is not a swimmer and wanted nothing to do with the river.
So, what is peoples' predictions for how long until we smarten up and replace President Shitforbrains with a crow?
Easter.
"What douchey thing did you do to earn it? You'll have to remind me. I sorta remember you doing some dirt bag dishonest misrepresentation of something."
Let me help you here Ken (For a guy who cast aspersions over earlier comments made by others, your memory sucks).
Commenter A: “We are officially a banana republic.”
Ken B. responded: SECONDED
Hump: "@Ken B. I thought you were Canadian."
Worthy of douchiness? Hardly.
I think it's unfair that transmen can't compete and get medals like transwomen. My idea is that regular men should have to carry extra weights to equitize their strength privilege so that they compete with transmen as equity equals. And come to think of it, transwoman should also have extra weights to equitize the strength advantage of early-man-being. Horses have equity handicaps and people should learn from horses. Equity weights for equity sports.
Humperdink said...
It appears the DOJ's "throw the book" scheme towards the January 6 miscreants is being shredded by the trial judges
“Last time we were here 30 days ago, I was convinced that it was a plan to execute an incursion on the Capitol building,” the judge told Caldwell’s attorney. “You’ve raised some evidence that, I think, rebuts that notion.”
The judge has since released other defendants, noting there’s no evidence they assaulted anyone at the Capitol or, in some cases, don’t appear to be as involved in the planning before Jan. 6.
{U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta agreed in February to keep Thomas Caldwell, who authorities have portrayed as a leader of the conspiracy, locked up while he awaits trial, saying the evidence showed he “engaged in planning and communications with others ... to plan a potential military-like incursion on the Capitol on January the 6th.”
But after Caldwell’s lawyer challenged that assessment, the judge reversed his decision and released Caldwell to home confinement. Mehta said there’s no evidence he entered the Capitol on Jan. 6 or had been plotting to do so.}
Gosh. The corrupt DoJ is lying so much, has overcharged meager to non-existent evidence, Judges realizing the DoJ attorneys are running fast and loose with their pleadings. Its almost like the media narrative is just that...narrative...unsupported by fact.
Perfect day for a walk along the Sammamish River.
I know it well. There's always a bald eagle fishing the river.
I'm closer to Magnuson Park. I bought a wildlife camera. I am astounded by the wildlife flourishing (beavers, otters, coyote) on the old Naval Aviation Base.
Goodwife Narr got her second dose yesterday and has the hangover.
Moderna.
strength privilege
If that gets picked up by the narrative.......You will forever have my respect!
I believe the osprey have returned as well.
Can't believe there are people willing to die on the women's NCAA basketball hill.
All they are asking for is justice and equity. But systemic sexism is holding them back. The latest outrage I saw with my own eyes happened just today -- They were showing the women's basketball on ESPN2. Not ESPN, but ESPN-TWO. Like the women are second class or something.
Disgusting misogyny.
Peter Falk playing Columbo playing an old-timer mobster type undercover.
Our two mallards returned to the pond this morning, as they do every spring. They'll hang around for a couple of weeks and move on. No sign that either one of them changed genders over the winter.
Look at the data. The cases dropped long before the vaccine was widespread enough to make a difference. It's starting to help now, but the widespread natural immunity did the lion's share of the work so far. Data is your friend.
Got my second Pfizer shot Thursday. Thursday night had severe chills and Friday deep fatigue. Must be doing something.
Sometimes you want to put yourself on the country (jury trial) and sometimes you want a bench trial.
The Capitol defendants should opt for the trial by a judge. If they ever get that far. The defendants should all call the bluff of the prosecutors and refuse to take a plea.
Mrs. Falk is guest starring.
She was a looker.
"Data is your friend."
Data.
So I was out walking around and discovered a place that I had been wondering about.
We have a rather large deer population that you might see around dusk. I always wondered where they hung out during the day and presumably where they slept.
I found out. I was walking in a little valley area in the woods and spotted a whole herd of them just standing there behind some fallen trees. I decided to stop moving and just watch them. The women were all just going about their business, but there was one strapping young buck who was eyeballing me and I didn't want to bother with him coming over to mix it up with me.
I think slojo has to cling to the wreckage until August or so. If he leaves sooner, it screws up the timing.
Inga and I are going with Biden being replaced by pedjt by the end of the year. Maybe earlier.
But if slojo leaves before kamala, it could screw things up.
We think it will still happen. I just think it makes it messier.
John Henry
Pedjt has told us he plans to do something with (social?) media in coming months.
I believe he is in talks to by CNN.
I think he is just waiting for the price to tank to rock bottom.
They are going down the capper fast.
John Henry
Does getting Covid make you immune or not? The graph deceptively ignores the natural immunity which was peaking at year end - the same time the vaccine started and the cased stared dropping. Assuming the drop is all due to the vaccine is just deceptive. Cases had just peaked, which means the rate of natural immunity also peaked. This has happened thousands of time in human history without vaccines. Vaccines are great, but data is instructive only when it's presented honestly.
Bagoh,
You are right about honest presentation of data.
But that first depends on honest collection of data. I doubt we will ever know the true story of kung flu.
We can't. The data have been so screwed with and poorly collected that I suspect there will never be a usable data set to figure out what happened in 2020.
People will try but it will always be GIGO.
John Henry
The age cohorts seem to follow the vaccination rates.
I've got no special knowledge and no axe to grind. But if you want to appeal to "data", well, this is data.
Engelbert
So basically you don’t remember the douchey thing you did either. Fair enough.
Rappinoe should simply be told athletes are paid entertainers.
It's not a guvmint job classification.
Gonna be hard to get full grasp on Covid stats when so much is based on crap PCR tests.
23 million Americans have tested positive and now have natural immunity, and that's only a fraction of those who actually are but were never tested. Those are exactly the people most likely to catch it and spread it, because they actually did. In practice, it is the most precisely targeted immunity of all. A large number of people getting the vaccine already have natural immunity, and therefor the vaccine is doing nothing in those cases.
Obviously if some of you folks are taking idiot vaccine, it doesn’t work. But the covid vaccine is quite effective, and it will end the strain on the health system, and the waves of outbreaks, and the basis cited for lockdowns. By June covid will no longer be such a big deal in the USA. It will take longer in Canada. Covid will no longer be the major disease killer.
Walter
The ironic thing is that right now Rappinoe is doing her job better than she does it normally. Her job is to attract attention. That is what sells advertising and tickets and merchandise.
Not really her "job".
Perfect day for a walk along the Sammamish River.
From where I live I take a footpath down to Willows then follow the path down to the old railroad bridge across the river just north of Redmond Way. (There is an eagle's nest just north of the bridge.) From there I've walked as far south as the northern end of Marymoor park.
Ken B,
Are there any approved kung flu vaccines available in Canada?
So far all we have is an "experimental" vaccine "authorized" for "emergency use"
We are probably at least a year away from FDA approval.
How's Canada handling it?
John Henry
bagoh,
I think the current line is that the shot (theoretically?) protects against more variants than naturally acquired immunity via a particular strain.
I don't know if there's much evidence for that or not....
Eventually we will have data involving populations outside of the shot in arms directives.
Flu vaccines have not ended the flu, and you have to get a new flu shot every year.....which is nothing but a guess. A dollar for everyone who gets a flu shot, then winds up with the flu.
There will never be enough vaccines to overcome the hundreds of variants and mutations.
Exit the vaccine merry-go-round, and build your natural immunity which was designed to fight off 99% of anything going around.
Oral Roberts came close.
Mike in Snoqualmie - we frequently visit the Marymoor off-leash park. We don't wear masks. But I'll be looking for your "we've been vaccinated" mask. :-)
Ignorance - occasionally walk along the slough - but more frequently kayak. Not this year yet.
Will be interesting to see if rona variants end up as the "But wait, there's more!" of pandemia.
John Henry
We have several vaccines approved. What we lack, due to government incompetence, is doses.
On the other hand we have fair elections and a working constitution.
COVID isn't going to disappear. The vaccine may reduce it for a while, but you will have to get new vaccines on a regular basis, and even those won't eliminate the virus. It is endemic and will continue to kill old people from now on. We will likely become increasingly resistant against it as a population as our natural adaptive immunity develops against it, but influenza never disappeared and we have developed and deployed dozens of different vaccines against all strains of it.
The test for just how effective this vaccine really is will come next Fall when we reenter the upcycle for respiratory viruses. If we continue to test for COVID and its variants at 1.5 million tests/day, I don't think it likely we ever fall below 10,000 new cases/day, and those 10,000/day will lead to 30 deaths/day on an ongoing basis based on how we count COVID deaths- out of 10,000 people, statistically 30 of them will die of something within a year's time in the US.
I am just saying, don't take victory laps over the vaccine. What worries me more is what happens if 500 people/day die of COVID next Fall. I wouldn't be particularly alarmed by such a development, but most people aren't me, and I could easily see us reverting to a full lockdown by next November in a new panic because the vaccine "didn't end COVID". Only an idiot would claim that it will.
Don't overpromise success, and you will find failure is less frightening.
And, finally, if the entire US had followed Sweden's example, like a lot of the Southern states of the US did, guess what- we would still have about 562,012 deaths right now attributed to COVID.
The government mandated interventions didn't work. If you don't believe me, then explain why Europe did worse than the US? They followed the strict lockdown and masking rules far better than we did and used more force of law as coercion. They should be better off, right?
I don't wear masks when I'm outside, just when required in a store. There's zero risk of catching anything during a passing encounter. I see too many people either wearing masks or quickly donning a mask as you pass them.
I don't normally go to Marymoor, but that's Pam's favorite park for walking Sadie when it's not raining. She walks Sadie at Ardmore Park in Bellevue on rainy days. Pam takes Sadie in the late afternoon. I take Sadie to Bridle Trails Corner Park and View Point Park (adjacent to each other) in the morning.
Sadie looks like a miniature German Shepard, black and tan. All 11-lbs of her.
there will never be a usable data set to figure out what happened in 2020.
TBH, there seldom is. For instance the Flu data is a complicated estimate made after the fact. My early prediction at the beginning of the pandemic was that there would be years of argument after it was over. Post hoc analysis, aka data butchery, is a great way to pass time.
It's a bit problematic when misleading tests/testing levels are incentivized.
Look to those less able and willing to hamstring their economies for perspective.
Looks like Syracuse is going to come up short. Live by the 3, die by the 3 looking at the box score.
Am following the game score over at Yahoo. I haven't watched a single solitary minute of college basketball all year. I haven't even glanced at the ESPN feeds at the gym during one. I have almost reached the point where I don't care about sports any longer. I wonder if I will even watch the Olympics if they are held. I was, even in 2016, a pretty avid watcher of the Olympics- especially all track and field and the swimming events.
"influenza never disappeared"
Measles and polio haven't disappeared, but they have ceased to be a problem (in the vaccinated). What's the difference? (Sincere question, I'm not arguing a position.)
Anyone have measles or polio without knowing it?
I see too many people either wearing masks or quickly donning a mask as you pass them.
It's the new Macarena.
You can use the CDC's excess deaths as long as they are careful in assigning all other causes, and I don't see any reason to believe they won't do that properly. The main issue going forward is going to be excess deaths from other causes due to our strictly rationing all other medical care. This is likely going to cause a minimum of 500K excess deaths in the US (the world wide toll from the needless panic will cause a lot of death from starvation, too, just not in the western world) from heart disease, diabetes, and cancer over the next 2-3 years. Those are deaths the Karen's won't cop to, however.
I can, however, imagine asymptomatic flu..if we tested for it with excessively ampflified testing protocol.
Mr Trump, a Republican, said: "We're going to be opening relatively soon... I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter."
He added in a subsequent interview: "Easter is a very special day for me."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52029546
Only one time did I go to a hospital when I had the flu. I couldn't keep anything down, so I got really dehydrated. They stuck an IV in me, and a couple of hours later I was going home. Any other time, I just stayed home, drank lots of fluid and shivered. Didn't call the doctor, so there would have been no record of my illness. Tracking flu accurately is a fool's game. Only the really sick will be recorded.
Half of the country was reopened not long after last Easter, Mutaman, but I suppose you don't know that because you don't live in that part of the country. Where do you live Mutaman- it would be informative to know what policies your state got with its interventions. What say you?
I've gotten sick from the flu once in 40 years. I suspect that I have been exposed to it more than that and simply fought it off. I've never had a flu shot.
I think it is hard for people who have been stuck in the northeast, midwest, and the west coast to really understand that pretty much everywhere else in the US has been mostly normal since early last May. I didn't realize this blindness until a few weeks ago when it Texas eliminated the last of its COVID mandates and the online leftists went batshit crazy claiming Texas was going to explode in cases and deaths. It became to clear to me that none of them understood that Texas had eliminated almost all the state level restrictions last Spring, not in February.
It really is two movies playing on the same screen in this regard- the red states never shut down to the extent that the blue states did, and they reopened 10 months ago.
My oldest sister and her family lives just outside of Philadelphia- according to her, except for walks outside in their neighborhood, they have stayed inside the house since last March ordering everything for home delivery- they haven't gone anywhere. I was just stunned when my mother told me this. I don't know how the people in states like PA survived such a thing, especially since it didn't work to stop the virus even there.
If medical science wasn't so politicized, they would consider some intentional low-level COVID exposure to innoculate large groups.
They would determine what is the optimum low-level exposure to trigger an immune response without overloading the system and leading to serious symptoms.
I was flat on my back for two weeks with the Korean Death Flu in '95. Ever since then I've gottten the shots every year. Don't know if it has actually prevented anything, but after that experience a day of being sore-armed and mopey seems a pretty small price.
Mark,
There were options to vaccine just like that, but no government officials apparently were brave enough to resist the Karens- not even Trump initially. If we had just isolated the elderly in the nursing homes, and those elderly living at home could have done exactly what my sister did with outside help from their families and neighbors, and everyone else had just continued to live their lives normally, we could have reached this same point in immunity level a half year ago or more, and probably would have killed about half as many people because they wouldn't have had to be isolated for over a year like we tried to do.
The British had the right idea early on, but Johnson and his cabinet chickened out. We at least have the Swedish example though- not perfect, but proof that the government inventions don't matter.
Shorter Yancey Ward: Dead Swedes, meh.
Mark
You are talking about variolation. I posted quite a bit about it early on. I got basically no response from anyone here. No surprise, most of the Covidiots had no interest at all in what might or might not work, just what might or might not help Trump.
No western country pursued seriously, which I think was a mistake.
Lest anyone be fooled by Yancey Ward's smokescreen, Sweden had a worse outcome than any of its neighbors, and abandoned its policies.
Nor was it ever without interventions. Upper schools were closed, large gatherings were prohibited, etc. They had looser restrictions than most, but still not insignificant restrictions nonetheless.
Blogger walter said...
Anyone have measles or polio without knowing it?
"Most people infected with the poliovirus have no signs of illness and are never aware they have been infected. These symptomless people carry the virus in their intestines and can “silently” spread the infection to thousands of others before the first case of polio paralysis emerges.
For this reason, the World Health Organization (WHO) considers just a single confirmed case of polio paralysis to be evidence of an epidemic – particularly in countries where very few cases occur."
https://www.unicef.org/sudan/stories/five-fast-facts-about-polio
John Henry
Ken B.
Approved? As in gone through all tests for safety and efficacy?
Or just authorized for emergency use (or whatever language Canada might use) as an experimental drug?
It is "authorized" in the US but not "Approved"
John Henry
Authorized by FDA but not approved by FDA
John Henry
Sweden had a worse outcome than any of its neighbors, and abandoned its policies.
Nor was it ever without interventions. Upper schools were closed, large gatherings were prohibited, etc. They had looser restrictions than most, but still not insignificant restrictions nonetheless.
Either link to something that shows that's true, or just admit you're pulling it out of your ass because you still have something stuck in your craw over Covid. You've been a first rate asshole to anyone who's disagreed with you when it comes to Covid, so it's hard for anyone who can look at this objectively to not be skeptical of your views here.
There were NO COUNTRIES who had no deaths from Covid, so the "Swedish Deaths, Meh" comment is pure bullshit. Control your emotions and put up or shut up.
Cop shooter shoots self.
FWIW My wife had two Pfizers, no ill effects. I've had one Pfizer and was head achey for a day and moderate depression for several days. Spoke to a woman who had one Pfizer, then spent several days crying, no energy went straight to bed for the duration. Number two Pfizer is Monday.
The progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Sweden: an update
Whether the longer or shorter regression periods provide better estimates of normal mortality in 2019 and 2020, it seems clear that excess deaths, as a proportion of the population, were much higher in England than in Sweden. Excess deaths in England per 100,000 population were about four times those in Sweden for 2019 and 2020 combined, and about double those in Sweden for 2020 alone
Other factors?
America had Planned Parent/hood, social contagion driving herd stampedes, unsanitary conditions forcing cross-contamination, and denial and stigmatization of effective, inexpensive, low-risk treatments. The exponential declines in spring and then fall preceded lockdowns, mask orders, and vaccine distributions.
It is "authorized" in the US but not "Approved"
Yes, with a large minority with preexisting immunity, a large minority with naturally acquired immunity through exposure, with inexpensive, effective, low-risk treatments, and low risk of mortality, experimental vaccines are best distributed to high-risk populations.
I see too many people either wearing masks or quickly donning a mask as you pass them.
Social stigma backed with the threat of force in secular societies.
Actually, Sweden did better than most of the other European countries.
Ken B,
Very likely, at least 1/3 to 1/2 the population has already has Covid. In addition, there are significant numbers of people with some level of natural immunity. Those two factors, more than the vaccinations, are what is stopping the pandemic. The vaccinations obviously help, but they are about #3 on the list.
Just saw a very on-point tweet:
Media asked Ted Cruz to put on a mask during his press briefing the other day, but they never say anything about that to Jen Psaki during the White House press briefings
https://mobile.twitter.com/antoinegigal/status/1376113608845836290?s=21
"If medical science wasn't so politicized, they would consider some intentional low-level COVID exposure to innoculate large groups."
One of the big missed opportunities was the colleges in spring, 2020. Should have just left those kids there to mix, instead of sending them home to spread to more vulnerable people.
I see too many people either wearing masks or quickly donning a mask as you pass them.
We were out and about yesterday. Little craft show. masks maybe 10%. I endured that, so went down the road to a gun show. Mask usage about the same.
All the vulnerable are vaccinated. Why all the theater with masks?
We have been mostly normal since last April. Restaurants, traveling, family gatherings.
Lets not forget, cases fell off a cliff January 8th. Experts here tell us a huge spike in cases happen 2 weeks after a super spreader event....like gatherings for Christmas.
Covid was dead on that date.
Who is still dying today? We still have 500 deaths/day? Why
Ken B asserted: "Engelbert
So basically you don’t remember the douchey thing you did either. Fair enough."
Not only did I remember it, I posted it it at 9:18 above. Why am I not surprised you missed it.
wildswan: Harrrison. Bergeron.
iowan2: link, please?
Longest game in NCAA hockey playoffs ends in 5th overtime. NoDak 2 UMD 3. 142m 21s. A freshmen scored the winner for his second goal of the season. UMD goalie left in he 4th OT because of cramps. UMD had scored the winning goal in the 1st OT but were offside by about an inch. Hell of a game.
Got our 2nd vaccine shots today. Also ordered two "I've been vaccinated" face masks.
Wait ... you're vaccinated... and you are going to virtue signal to all the Karens by wearing masks? What am I missing here?
If you fall for this scam, they will NEVER let you stop wearing the mask.
"and you are going to virtue signal to all the Karens by wearing masks? "
Following the law is not virtue signaling.
Have you noticed that Biden always wears his mask walking up to the lectern but not when he leaves?
LOL. I went to Amazon and started to type "I've been vaccinated" into the search bar. I only got to "i'v" and they popped up at the head of the list.
"Have you noticed that Biden always wears his mask walking up to the lectern but not when he leaves?"
He isn't going to remember to put it on. Some staffer took care of that when he went out.
Wait ... you're vaccinated... and you are going to virtue signal to all the Karens by wearing masks? What am I missing here?
I'd really like a mask that said: "I've been vaccinated. Why am I wearing this F* mask?", but I haven't found any like that. I'm only wearing it wear required, not in the great outdoors.
The point is to flood the zone with people wearing these masks to show how ridiculous it is to wear masks after being vaccinated. I'm also going to challenge the door guards about mask wearing.
"I'd really like a mask that said: "I've been vaccinated. Why am I wearing this F* mask?","
If you find one, please let me know.
I see Karen B is lying once again.
Sweden's restrictions were the lightest in the entire European continent by far. They performed no worse than Europe as a whole. They are the negative control vs what the UK, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Hungary, etc. did. Yes, Norway, Finland, and Denmark did better, but those countries also had much lighter restrictions than did the other European countries with worse outcomes.
Do you ever tire of lying, Karen B? Ever? Sweden's restrictions mirrored those in the Southern Unites States- basically some right at the start of the panic that were quickly removed within a month once they realized the IFR was well under 1%.
And they panic later and apply more restrictions. I know this because I read one story after another last Summer and Fall criticizing them for not doing so. I even linked some of those stories here in the comment sections pointing out that the real reason Sweden was being criticized was because the Karens didn't want Sweden to be the counter-example. And on cue, here is our resident Karen B trying to deny Sweden is a counter-example.
You are a cretin, Ken, and a liar, and everyone here knows it except for Inga. You should think about how Inga is basically your only supporter here before spouting off about this again.
"Do you ever tire of lying, Karen B?"
Of course not, Yancey. He gets his rocks off lying. Lord knows why, but there are people like that.
Also, Karen B, pull up a comment you wrote supporting variolation, because I don't remember you supporting it. I know I did- I even linked to Robin Hansen's controversial essays on the matter at the time. I even wrote a comment saying I would be a willing subject for such an experiment.
Here is what I remember about your positions from last March that I disagreed with, but prove me wrong by linking to the threads where you didn't support any of the following:
(1) Short lockdowns to flatten the curve;
(2) COVID was going to kill 2-11 million Americans if we behaved like Sweden was doing at that time;
(3) Mask mandates would stop the spread of COVID (though I remember this topic arose later in the Spring as mandates spread);
(4) I argued that the short lockdowns would morph into much longer ones, you disagreed;
(5) That track and trace would work effectively in the US;
Where I remember us agreeing was on vigorously using off the shelf treatments to mitigate the symptoms of COVID, and on isolating the elderly and immune compromised in nursing homes or their actual homes.
I definitely don't remember you supporting variolation through any pratical spread of herd immunity. What I remember is you arguing vociferously against letting the virus spread naturally. You may have supported small experiments with variolation, so prove it.
"Half of the country was reopened not long after last Easter,"
Over 520,000 souls have died of covid nationally since last Easter, Sparky.
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