November 17, 2020

"Schools Should Be the Last Things We Close, Not the First/Why do we keep asking children to bear the brunt of a lockdown?"

A NYT op-ed by Aaron E. Carroll. Carroll is a pediatrics professor at the Indiana University School of Medicine. 
Cases have definitely been more common in school-age children this fall. But when schools do the right things, those infections are not transmitted in the classroom. They’re occurring, for the most part, when children go to parties, when they have sleepovers and when they’re playing sports inside and unmasked.... The playbook for keeping schools as safe as possible has been understood for many months...
[O]ur schools are not, for the most part, prepared to deliver high quality educational content online. Kids are also social animals and need safe in-person interactions for their mental health and development....  Closing schools also exacerbates social and economic disparities.... Students who fall behind will have an incredibly difficult time catching up.... 
Almost everything else should be put on pause first. This is what Europe is doing. No one can explain why, once again, the United States is choosing its own path....

My hypothesis would be that both Europe and the United States are putting the interests of adults first and the difference is which adults — parents or teachers.  

147 comments:

tim maguire said...

My hypothesis would be that both Europe and the United States are putting the interests of adults first and the difference is which adults — parents or teachers.

There's a lot of reason to think that that's correct. In the US, teachers' unions have too much power and they use that power to harm children.

David Begley said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Temujin said...

Given the actual data, it seems crazy to me at this point to shut anything down. The virus is mostly fatal, by a far, far margin, to those over 80 years old, and those with specific pre-existing conditions. Why are we still playing the game we played back in March when we knew nothing? We have months of data now. We know better how to fight the virus. And we know that the young, by almost a 99% clip, do not get ill from the virus. That includes college aged people.

What are we doing shutting down California, Washington, Michigan, others? Just what is the goal here? It's not health safety. Mentally, socially, economically, we're killing an entire generation of Americans. What is the goal of our 'leaders' and those who scream "Science!" while ignoring the data?

rehajm said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
David Begley said...

Althouse is, again, correct.

Here in Nebraska the state’s teachers’ union claimed yesterday that their union members were exhausted. Compared to whom? Roofers? Concrete workers?

Public schools exist for the benefit of the staff and the teachers. The students are secondary.

Schools in Omaha are going remote again.

Temujin said...

Tim Maguire said: "There's a lot of reason to think that that's correct. In the US, teachers' unions have too much power and they use that power to harm children."

No worries. Joe Biden is going to put them back in charge of the Dept. of Education. You have not yet seen the destruction of our kids education.

Shouting Thomas said...

We took this path because the teacher’s union is so heavily invested in the Democratic Party.

Like all other factions of the party, the union was obliged to commit to abject hysteria over the virus in the great campaign to defeat Trump.

So, the schools backed themselves into a corner. They can’t admit now that the panic was a bullshit political drama.

Lewis Wetzel said...

The playbook for keeping schools as safe as possible
This is a mistake, and an obvious one.
The goal should be to keep schools as safe as reasonable, not as safe as possible.

Whiskeybum said...

David Begley said... @ 6:14

"Here in Nebraska the state’s teachers’ union claimed yesterday that their union members were exhausted."

I've heard that here locally where I live. And you know the reason why they are exhausted and have low morale? It's because they are spending so much time and effort herding kids to follow mostly ineffective COVID-avoidance rules, and therefore not spending much time/effort in teaching kids anything.

Curious George said...

Why? Ask Joe Biden.

Milwaukee Public Schools are doing remote learning. Probably doesn't matter. Half of the kids don't go to school anyway. And the other half aren't getting much of an education anyway.

Kai Akker said...

The powers that be
That force us to live like we do

Phil 314 said...

A national tragedy that will have lasting negative effects. Poorest kids hit hardest.

rehajm said...

Joe's people are going to appoint a head of the teachers union to his cabinet. Your kids will be the last thing they're thinking about...

Mid-Life Lawyer said...

Parents need to form a union. They won't though because they are generally doing very well without one so they will continue to allow the identity groups to ruin the hell out of everything. Blacks, gays, immigrants, women, and now teachers. Teachers Lives Matter.

stevew said...

No one other than you cares about your kids and their wellbeing, and I'm not 100% about you.

My daughter's MIL runs a small school for pre-school aged children. One of her staff, a teacher, tested positive for Covid. They had to shut down the school and have everyone tested. None of the kids tested positive; daughter's MIL is awaiting her results. No matter what they are shut down for at least two weeks following recording of all test results. Those that test positive are out longer.

Jess said...

If the children are at home, they are influenced by their parents, who are angry about the manipulation of the economy, and supposed concerns of who they know are crooked politicians. Children know there is something wrong, and time away from schools influences their critical thinking. That's not good for the narrative, and the solution is to get them back in school for more indoctrination.

To Marxists, children are useful tools for achieving complete control.

Quayle said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Quayle said...

Follow Governor Whitmers’s logic on keeping people safe and we should be banning smoking outright, banning alcohol as long as we have cars, and shutting down all freeways, and the list would go on and on. No boating in the Great Lakes. Swimming pools filled in. No children allowed to ride a bike in a neighborhood. She said it is hard to take republican criticism seriously. To me the statement shows two things. 1. she’s not a stateswoman leader, she’s a highly partisan party politician. 2. her only way of looking at the world appears to be through the lens of political parties. What exactly is “Republican” criticism?

Bill Owens said...

https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-study-lockdowns-masks-are-useless-and-might-even-increase-covid-19-spread/

A report on a very controlled study using Marines-who follow orders- found through Instapundit. Summation: masks and lockdowns are useless, perhaps even counterproductive.
The kabuki is meant to control, not protect.

TwoAndAHalfCents said...

The author is in Indiana. I’m sure she is nice.
(Callback to NYT COVID comment from a few days ago)

rehajm said...

...both Europe and the United States...

Our differences are disappearing...

Leland said...

I'd say both the US and European are putting the interest of paying lobbyist first. Parents pay because of taxes. Teachers Union then pay the politician's campaign. Alas, I see Tim Maguire noted this first.

Greg Hlatky said...

Albert Shanker may never have said, "When schoolchildren start paying union dues, that's when I'll start representing the interests of school children." But it certainly is the attitude of teachers unions.

Birkel said...

We force others to bear the costs so tim in vermont can feel good about sacrificing.
There are lots of him.

They are vocal.
They are quislings.
Get used to it.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

What do pediatricians know about kids? Teachers unions and science-worshipping governors say schools are superspreaders, like Trump rallies (but UNlike Democrat street celebrations and dinner parties). Simple! Logical!

Jersey Fled said...

Nearly half of Puerto Rico's schools were closed 6 months after Hurricane Maria.

Three years later, testing has shown that the island's school children have still not recovered to even their poor pre-Maria levels.

Anyone who claims that untrained and unprepared teachers can teach effectively using Zoom and email is a fool or a liar.

I expect that standardized testing will be the next casualty of the pandemic. The teachers always hated it because it showed just how bad our schools are in many parts of the country, especially as regards minority students. It also shows that after trillions of federal dollars pumped into the system over decades now, there has been no measurable improvement in student outcomes.

The education bureaucracy simply needs to hide the inevitable decline resulting from the lockouts. I expect that a Biden administration will happily comply.

tim in vermont said...

I was talking to a friend who is a teacher the other day and she says it is a complete “shit show,” that the kids are not learning anything, they simply don’t do their homework, the work has been dumbed down and still they can’t or won’t do it, that they have no real working model for on-line learning, and basically she agrees with Phil314.

At this rate, they are going to all end up like Birkel, whose reading comprehension is so poor that he can’t parse the following position which I have maintained since at least May. That the schools should be open, and that teachers who are at special risk due to health conditions or age should be eased out with things like early retirement. Talking to my friend just kind of solidified that position, this isn’t working except for the most motivated kids, who would probably do fine no matter what.

gilbar said...

Why do we keep asking children to bear the brunt of a lockdown?"

how does the saying go?
Students won't get fair treatment from schools unless they join the Teachers Union?

iowan2 said...

Temujin has very good observations

I just sat through my morning news update on the local channel, and informed about the new restrictions put in place by the Governor (Rep.). Bars, masks, attendance at school sports, limits on gathering sizes....
But not a single mention about nursing homes. +80% of all covid deaths are occuring there.
But the message is masks and distancing.
Local Dr, is hair on fire insane. hospital staffing is short (he claims) because the staff are contracting covid. If medical Professionals are contracting covid, and masks are the end all be all (more effective than a vaccine, according the head of the CDC) how can 10 year olds possibly use a mask properly?

Schools are run by teachers unions. Plain and simple. I dont hear anything in the media about the christian schools and what they are doing. Wonder why the news is being curated to hide that data point?

Tom T. said...

Here in Fairfax County Va., the school board (which is responsive to parents) keeps pushing to reopen, whole the superintendent, who is responsive to teachers, keeps the system shut down.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

There is no scientific reason to order healthy productive people to stop working and living normally in this country. No action taken by any government body has PREVENTED the spread of COVID this year. We slowed it down, but as every person who knows any epidemiology at all has said repeatedly: viruses gotta virus. That is, it will spread as far as it can as long as it can until it kills all its victims or herd immunity kicks in, as with measles and etc. Ebola was so deadly it killed all available victims before they could spread it. H1N1 spread far and wide, infecting over 60 million Americans, but was far less fatal because it caused mild symptoms like a seasonal flu. Hong Kong flu behaved almost exactly like COVID and had a very similar outcome in 1969 to our experience this year, with almost zero mitigation (no shutdowns no panic). So all of the “slow the spread” efforts this year worldwide have accomplished no more than the do-nothing strategy of ‘69.

What should this tell honest intelligent adults? That political actors ALSO were highly ineffective (other than Operation Warp Speed, which is cool) this year. Outcomes are equalizing worldwide (‘cause the virus is gonna virus no matter what) and proving that executive actions other than allocating resources was useless. It’s not Coumo or Whitmer or a Noem or Wolf or Evers or Newsome that halts or spreads the virus. It doesn’t matter if the streets are full of cars or rioters. It doesn’t matter if we stay at home or go to work and school. The virus is acting outside our control. The first politician that explains that and admits we can go back to normal may become a hero. More likely the virus theatre will continue. Fauci seems drunk on his assumed power. And Democrats have no other good way to kill our economy without shutdowns so they want them with a hot passion just like their Chinese masters want us to.

Roughcoat said...

"Because if it saves the life of even one child ..."

Danno said...

My hypothesis would be that both Europe and the United States are putting the interests of adults first and the difference is which adults — parents or teachers.

Ann, this is very simple. When the parents start paying union dues and have more members than the teachers, the parents will come first.

mockturtle said...

A good time for parents to form their own schools. And not just temporarily.

Fernandinande said...

Why do we keep asking children to bear the brunt of a lockdown?

Bullies bear the biggest brunt.

tim in vermont said...

"Outcomes are equalizing worldwide”

Of all of the things that you wrote that are not true, let’s look at this one.

Deaths per million pop

Belgium: 1,259
USA: 762
Sweden: 615
Norway: 55
Denmark: 132
Japan: 15
South Korea: 10

tim in vermont said...

By the way, I don’t think we should shut down the schools, as I have said repeatedly, it’s just that lies are counterproductive. As far as I know, Japan’s schools are open right now.

wild chicken said...

Again, lurk at reddit/teachers and walk a mile in their shoes.

Yeah online ed is a shitshow but mainly because it rwveals how many students won't engage whether in class or at home. I mean not log in or do a fucking thing. Or, parent does everything and gets pissed if she gets a bad grade. We are so screwed.

Oh and also, they are running out of teachers and subs.

WK said...

“ Schools Should Be the Last Things We Close, Not the First”
Government runs the schools (most of them)
Do I not have the right to do as I please with what is mine? Or are you envious because I am generous?’ So the last will be first, and the first will be last.”

Todd said...

"Schools Should Be the Last Things We Close

Because when they are closed this allows parents to see and understand what today's public schools are actually doing to their children and gives them the opportunity to see and understand that they don't actually need us as much as we lead them to believe. We can NOT have this! The education industry [and Democrats] depend on this!

Mike of Snoqualmie said...

When are parents going to start demonstrating in front of the teachers' unions' buildings? Union officials should not get off without getting in-your-face face time from the parents. Stop all business activity. Make their life hell.

hombre said...

“...[O]ur schools are not, for the most part, prepared to deliver high quality educational content online.“

Our schools are not, and have not been, prepared to deliver high quality education - period!!! This is no secret just as it is no secret that teachers and their unions are driving the closures. It’s not the science. Once again, destructive practices carried out with the complicity of the Democrats and the leftmediaswine. It’s remarkable that the odious NYT would even publish this piece.

“Once again” because it is no stretch to compare this behavior of the teachers and the tacit support of Democrat leaders to the antisocial activities of BLM/Antifa Brownshirts and other socialists/Marxists receiving the tacit support of Democrat leaders and their leftmediaswine consorts.

Kentucky Packrat said...

The easiest and quickest way to end the school lockdowns would be for every parent who is already having to teach their child/children so they don't fall behind either enrolls them in a private school that's doing physical attendance or starts homeschooling. Most school systems will have to start massive layoffs if enrollment drops 10% or more, and then the teacher's unions might just change their tune.

MD Greene said...


In my town, 79 teachers have been granted full-pay and dispensations not to appear because of pre-existing medical conditions and/or because they need to stay at home to take care of their own kids.

How many "essential" workers like grocery clerks and EMTs wouldn't like to have that deal?

-----

In Portland, Ore., last spring, the school district and teachers union cooked up a neat arrangement that "furloughed" teachers one day a week, which allowed the teachers to collect an extra increment from the federal Covid programs that meant the teachers got paid even more than they would have been if schools had been in session. (And I think I'm a cynic.)

The money would have been better spent sending books, more books, abacuses and science kits to family homes to allow for more non-computer, student-driven learning.

Mark said...

"Oh and also, they are running out of teachers and subs."

No one wants to talk about this, but it was a chronic issue for many districts before all their retirement age subs decided to fully retire this year.

A friend teaches. When she was out for surgery for two days, there was no sub available so they just skipped history class while she was out.

Schools here are going virtual for periods due to lack of staff.

No one wants that job anymore. Not worth the pay to deal with kids whose parents just want to be their friends

mockturtle said...

From Klaus Schwab, WEF Chairman: To achieve a better outcome, the world must act jointly and swiftly to revamp all aspects of our societies and economies, from education to social contracts and working conditions. Every country, from the United States to China, must participate, and every industry, from oil and gas to tech, must be transformed. In short, we need a “Great Reset” of capitalism. World Economic Forum COVID Action Platform

Skeptical Voter said...

My wife reminds me that in California--with a population at or touchng 40 million people, just two children have died of Covid 19. So shutting the California schools is designed to protect the teachers, not the students. And the teachers union in California is a big time political player.

Francisco D said...

Here in suburban Tucson, kids are going to school in shifts, except a lot of parents are keeping them out of school because Covid protocols necessitate that the parents quarantine if the kids test positive.

My wife complained that the kids are depressed and robotic - absolutely no misbehavior. The union is focused on getting our RINO Governor out of office with gossip . Apparently they are unhappy that a ton of teachers have not gotten sick from Covid as predicted.

MacMacConnell said...

In all of California two children under eighteen have died of Covid. Children don't die of Covid, they are asymptomatic. Their viral load is so small they don't transmit large viral loads. Teachers aren't getting Covis from their students, teachers are getting it elsewhere. In some school districts that's the problem, a shortage of teacher replacements while infected teachers quarantine. Teachers should be banned from bars, one night stands and restaurants. Fuck the NEA.

Quayle said...

In 2005, Gordon Hinckley, then President of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (SKA Mormons) called up Kim Clark, then Dean of the Harvard Business School, and asked him to leave Harvard and take the position as president of Brigham Young University’s Idaho Campus. Not the main Provo Campus, but the smaller, more remote BYU-Idaho campus. Kim Clark accepted the invitation.

Why did he do that? What were they up to?

Answer appears to be that they were looking ahead to the eventual deterioration of education systems in the U.S., the problems many have because of their poor early educational opportunities or the difficulty to go back to school while having to work, the exploded cost of higher education, and the need for education in remote parts of the world. The goal was to put in place a new system that could be rolled out in the U.S., be effective to the underprivileged, and likewise be extended to the world.

They started from the foundational design, focused on practicality, used the now-available technologies for learning, and the results are in place and being rolled out. It is one of several models for others, who desire to move to new educational models, and particularly answer to bloated campuses and ineffective primary schools.

Here is an overview of the first year foundation and "GED" type module.

Here is an overview of the full program.

I mention this only as an example of what kinds of things will almost certainly replace the current educational institutions. They're already in place.

Wince said...

Out for summer
Out till fall
We might not come back at all

School's out forever
School's out for summer
School's out with fever
School's out completely

Bruce Hayden said...

“The kabuki is meant to control, not protect.”

And to justify mass mail-in voting, in order to provide the excess ballots and lack of controls that the Dems needed to prevent OrangeManBad from being re-elected.

Balfegor said...

It made sense to shut down schools back in the spring when we had little data on who was getting infected and how -- children are often more at risk from serious infectious diseases, so it was a reasonable precautionary measure. Forget Western Europe, which has suffered more from coronavirus than most of the US, other than the Northeast. They're not exactly a model for how we should respond, since although they avoided some of our more spectacular screw-ups (e.g. the CDC-designed test fiasco), on average they've done as badly as the US has if not worse.
More persuasively, this is what the densely populated Northeast Asian countries did early in the pandemic -- Japan and Korea.

But once it became apparent that schools weren't a huge risk, they sent children back to school. Since then there have been a few school-related outbreaks, mostly (possibly entirely?) connected with team sports. Not ideal, but manageable.

tim in vermont said...

From the Marine recruits study:

All recruits wore double-layered cloth masks at all times indoors and outdoors, except when sleeping or eating; practiced social distancing of at least 6 feet; were not allowed to leave campus; did not have access to personal electronics and other items that might contribute to surface transmission; and routinely washed their hands. They slept in double-occupancy rooms with sinks, ate in shared dining facilities, and used shared bathrooms.

I guess that the conclusion of this study is that the virus doesn’t punch the clock when room-mates sleep in the same room, and that it doesn’t punch the clock when they eat indoors in large groups.

You mix a bunch of people together from all over the world, basically, and some of them are infected when they come in, and they spread infections to roommates and to people eating with them indoors. I don’t get what point this study is supposed to make. It tells us nothing new.

tim in vermont said...

What is interesting is that sharing bathrooms didn’t seem to spread the virus. Those bathrooms seemed exceptionally well sanitized though. It’s been obvious since forever that the problems come from breathing the air of infected people, symptomatic or no, for extended periods of time. These infected people who were spreading the virus mostly had no symptoms. So again, what is the big deal about this study?

It’s like testing a material to see if it’s waterproof, but leaving holes in it.

Mark said...

tim, and they cite this as 'proof' and then claim school kids can't transmit it well (similarly ignoring the older kids in high school when they make that statement).

Its weird to agree with you, but that marine study is an absolute joke.

MadisonMan said...

School children don't have a powerful Union that is calling the shots with the Democratic Party. That's why schools are closed. I am thankful my kids are out of College.

mockturtle said...

Francisco D. reports: The union is focused on getting our RINO Governor out of office with gossip.

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks Ducey is a RINO. Hope he gets primaried in 2022.

Anon said...

"My hypothesis would be that both Europe and the United States are putting the interests of adults first and the difference is which adults — parents or teachers."

Interestingly, Europeans are less beholden to special interests.

Howard said...

The Marine experiment obviously worked. When I was in boot camp we had recruits from all over the country. After the first week or so the entire platoon became sick with the worst cold I've ever had. Was very sick for at least 10 days. Of course you could never go to the doctor for that because if you did they would very likely hold you back and wait for another platoon forming up and then you'd have to spend even longer at MCRD.

They were able to hold the cove in levels to less than 5% that sounds like a very positive outcome to me.

Narayanan said...

in my alt-history USA >>> teachers get to enjoy busing instead of children waking up at 5 am

Achilles said...

Temujin said...

What are we doing shutting down California, Washington, Michigan, others? Just what is the goal here? It's not health safety. Mentally, socially, economically, we're killing an entire generation of Americans. What is the goal of our 'leaders' and those who scream "Science!" while ignoring the data?

Get to church.

Tell them to not bend the knee.

This is about stealing an election.

Achilles said...

tim in vermont said...

What is interesting is that sharing bathrooms didn’t seem to spread the virus. Those bathrooms seemed exceptionally well sanitized though. It’s been obvious since forever that the problems come from breathing the air of infected people, symptomatic or no, for extended periods of time. These infected people who were spreading the virus mostly had no symptoms. So again, what is the big deal about this study?

It’s like testing a material to see if it’s waterproof, but leaving holes in it.


What are you talking about?

There hasn't been a single piece of information they have given us that hasn't turned out to be a lie.

Carol said...

The reason schools suck is because for 50 years they have bent over backwards to get minorities caught up. So everything has been dumbed down.

And it still doesn't work.

Jupiter said...

"Students who fall behind will have an incredibly difficult time catching up"

Bilge. After 3rd grade, nothing of any great importance is taught in the public schools. Algebra, maybe.

Achilles said...

Vitamin D and Vitamin C deficiency has been shown to be an almost perfect correlation to having a more serious case when sick.

So we lock everyone inside?

Jay Inslee wants more people to die of COVID. Everyone giving these lock down orders wants more people to die so they can continue to lock us down.

Achilles said...

Carol said...

The reason schools suck is because for 50 years they have bent over backwards to get minorities caught up. So everything has been dumbed down.

And it still doesn't work.


Don't forget the mandatory sex education now starting in Kindergarten here in Washington State.

Begonia said...

The adults that the United States are putting first are those who go to bars, gyms, and restaurants. Those should be closed, so that case rates fall and schools can remain open.

In Wisconsin, I lay the blame on the Tavern League.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

When are parents going to start demonstrating in front of the teachers' unions' buildings? Union officials should not get off without getting in-your-face face time from the parents. Stop all business activity. Make their life hell.

Because of teacher-worship this will never happen. Parents, especially mothers, are strongly socialized in the 'I'm a teacher! What's your superpower!' mentality. Among parents, the strong majority opinion is that if you push too hard on kids going back you are a selfish asshole who wants sweet Mrs. Johnson and her elderly mother and new baby to die.

tim in vermont said...

"but that marine study is an absolute joke.”

The study is not a joke, it’s interesting and well done, what is a joke is the interpretation that people writing about it in places like Instapundit give it.

Jupiter said...

"One of her staff, a teacher, tested positive for Covid. They had to shut down the school and have everyone tested. None of the kids tested positive; daughter's MIL is awaiting her results. No matter what they are shut down for at least two weeks following recording of all test results. Those that test positive are out longer."

Just so you know, most positive Covid tests are false positives. That's because they use the PCR test, and the PCR test does not give you a yes/no answer, it gives you a number. It would be rational to treat that number as a probability, but you can't make and enforce simple rules using a probability, so before they give you the result, they apply an arbitrary cut-off, to get a yes/no result. Now, it should be obvious that an "arbitrary" cut-off is just that -- arbitrary. They can set it high, so almost everyone gets a "no", including some people who are actually infected. They can set it low, so almost all of the sick people get a "yes" -- along with a lot of people who are not sick. It's up to whoever handles the test, and they have mostly chosen to do the latter. Which means few false negatives, lots of false positives.

A case can be made, that this is the "prudent" thing to do. Better a hundred healthy people test positive than one yadda-yadda. But the result, given that most people don't have Covid, is that most positives are false positives. So when you read, in the newspapers you trust, that the doctors you trust say that cases are up, but deaths are not, now you know why. In this case, they aren't lying to support a political agenda. They don't have to, someone has already cooked the data for them.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Tim’s list of deaths per M is misleading, and nothing I said is untrue. There are demographic reasons Japan and Korea show better tolerance for the virus. But it is there and spreading just like here. Compare the victims and you might start to see the reasons. Of course I said explicitly that we don’t know why different states had differing results so far. I leave room for unexplained. Apparently Tim has all the answers!

And Balfegor is incorrect. We knew early on that children were not getting sick. Certainly the data was obvious by Fall and yet, so much opposition to normal schooling. Let’s just ignore the pediatric advice that sparked this column shall we!

tim in vermont said...

"Students who fall behind will have an incredibly difficult time catching up”

Joe Biden failed third grade and look where he is.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Joe Biden is the perfect specimen to illustrate the Peter Principle.

Mark said...

"There hasn't been a single piece of information they have given us that hasn't turned out to be a lie."

Pot, meet kettle.

ga6 said...

As of last night the number of deaths in California of persons under the age of 18 from china flu is:

2

tim in vermont said...

"There are demographic reasons Japan and Korea show better tolerance for the virus. “

Let’s hear them, or are you just working off of “feelz”? You said that the virus spread is equalizing worldwide, which is not true, which is pretty amusing considering that you also said this: "What should this tell honest intelligent adults?”

What are the demographic differences between Sweden and Norway?

"But it is there and spreading just like here”

Cases per million population is 945 for Japan and 19,000 for Sweden. And there is a vaccine and highly effective treatments in the pipeline, meaning that Japan has likely carried grandma and grandpa over the abyss so that the grandkids can have the benefit of their wisdom.

I don’t know about you guys, but I really liked my grandmother. She was born in the 1880s and a kid in the ‘60s could learn a lot from her. It was a priviledge to know her.

ga6 said...

I cannot believe that Howard was in my beloved Corps.

Joe Smith said...

I was at a nearby city on Sunday that is one of the larger in the surrounding 20 miles or so. There is a very nice park with a playground and grass. It was 70 degrees and beautiful.

There were hordes of people shopping and strolling. The playground was mobbed with kids 5 to 12 years old. Parents sat on blankets on the lawn and watched them.

And you're saying kids can't be in a classroom? Aren't they killing grandma?

Jupiter said...

"... this isn’t working except for the most motivated kids, who would probably do fine no matter what."

Which is to say, business as usual in the public schools. I know it's pleasant to whack the Teacher's Unions, I do it myself whenever possible. But the reality is, private schools are almost as bad. The only thing young kids are any good at learning is languages, which are seldom taught any more. And even when they get older, the crap they teach in the schools is of marginal utility at best. I suppose there is less overt indoctrination in craziness in some private schools, but they are pretty much all Communism factories nowadays. It is not actually a good idea to sequester young people into a social system based upon teen-age status cues, they should be around adults so they can learn adult values.

If your kids aren't criminals, don't send them to prison. Home-school!

tim in vermont said...

I wish I had known Grandpa, his dad fought in the Civil War, he was born the year of the Battle of Little Bighorn, but he died a couple years before I was born. A lot of stuff is lost when we lose our elders early.

Jupiter said...

Mark said...

"A friend teaches. When she was out for surgery for two days, there was no sub available so they just skipped history class while she was out."

There you go! Just think of all the those poor kids, going two days without being told what a wretched pack of vicious criminals their ancestors were, and how much they should hate the kids on either side of them!

tim in vermont said...

Which is it, “the disease is no problem because it only kills people over 75” or “They wrongly accuse us of wanting to kill grandma” I can never keep it straight, both are in this thread

Francisco D said...

mockturtle said...Glad I'm not the only one who thinks Ducey is a RINO.

I grew up in Chicago. The only Republicans in Illinois are RINOs. I am beginning to think the same of Arizona.

I fear that the Democrats will align with RINOs to create the appearance of a two party system that is really a graft operation for the good little boys and girls who play the game.

That is why Trump could not and never again will be tolerated.

Nonapod said...

According to the CDC, in the 0-14 yo age group there have been 81 deaths in the US. Out of a population of over 60.3 million, that's something like 0.000135%. For a rough comparison, on average, 12,175 children 0 to 19 years of age died each year in the United States from an unintentional injury. It's likely that in the US today a child is far more likley to be killed by one of their parents than Covid.

Jupiter said...

"It’s like testing a material to see if it’s waterproof, but leaving holes in it."

Very good, Tim! By George, I think he's got it!

Now let's work through this together. Q - If we want to test whether fabric is waterproof, why would we poke holes in it first? A - Because, when we use the fabric, it will have holes poked in it. Big ones! So, we need to see whether it is waterproof when it has big holes poked in it.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

"There are demographic reasons Japan and Korea show better tolerance for the virus. “

Let’s hear them, or are you just working off of “feelz”?


So sarcastic and so few facts! It is well known that Americans are fatter and more prone to diabetes than Japanese, for example. Both of these variables are known comorbidities for COVID19. In addition, Black Americans are more likely to acquire sickle cell anemia and hypertension than other Americans. They also have a higher incidence of comorbidities for COVID. There are few Black Japanese. I'm sure most adults have caught the drift by now.

You said that the virus spread is equalizing worldwide, which is not true, which is pretty amusing considering that you also said this: "What should this tell honest intelligent adults?”

Yes present tense, equalizing, and in fact will cover the globe eventually as measles and polio and etc have. Do you have no science training at all? Snapshot numbers do not provide a basis on which to prove or disprove what I said. You need an historical knoeledge of epidemiology, sych as the capsule version I supplied above referencing the Hong Kong Flu and H1N1, which are very much apple-to-apple type comparisons. I notice you competely ignores that part of my response. Because you don't know, you're spinning.

What are the demographic differences between Sweden and Norway?

Really why would I bother answering this after you've proved yourself incapable of even understanding what I wrote? Yes both are mostly white, but Tim there are indeed demographic differences in culture, medicine, family interaction, etc. Look it up. By the way, you cannot accurately measure outcomes in the middle of a pandemic. My "equalizing" statement is explicitly present tense because in the end the differences will be small for the most part.

"But it is there and spreading just like here”

Yep. Do you think there is a "there" in which the virus is not and will not spread? Really? Then why should we even continue this dialog? That's just stupid.

Rick said...

No one can explain why, once again, the United States is choosing its own path....

Of course we can. Our k-12 education system is run for the benefit of (1) the Dem political machine and (2) teachers. Teachers are notoriously selfish and seize any excuse to reduce their work and accountability. Since the Dem political machine cannot exist without teacher voting that machine has to protect itself by giving the teachers what they want. These are the same reasons we cannot improve failing school districts (granted our legal system which prevents schools from controlling students and parents who cannot or refuse to do so are an obstacle).

Did you hear Joe Biden is considering for Ed Secretary Randi Weingarten, the person who has done more to damage k-12 education than anyone else in our country's history?

Good times, good times.

Quayle said...

"I fear that the Democrats will align with RINOs to create the appearance of a two party system that is really a graft operation for the good little boys and girls who play the game."

We were putting on such a good show in Washington DC. Patriotism. Pomp. Expertise. Solutions. It was high drama and theater. And we were all getting so amazingly rich: politicians, media, lobbyists, military suppliers - all of us. (Where else except Washington DC media could an overdressed and over credentialed English major make so much money?!?)

Until this Donald character came along and stole the spotlight - the attention hog! He spoiled the show by hogging all the stage time and disturbing the aura. He even made the English majors look stupid.

Can't we just go back to the good-ol' days where we put on the big show of statesmanship, and the fleeced taxpayer and perpetually poor stay fixated and safely in their places?

We were all having such a good time!

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Note to those who still doubt what I write, even though it is easy to check:

- In March I wrote here that "when deaths per day start dropping steadily" we will know the worst is over because epidemiologists always say that, and were saying it in March. These "experts" were sidelined in favor of fear-mongering doctors of various stripe soon after, never to be heard from again. But the fact remains, we hit a peak in April and everything after has been part of the "long tail" of the virus finding its remaining victims and us acquiring immunity/vaccine to deal with future outbreaks.
- There have been two smaller peaks as the virus rolls through but nothing like we saw in April.
- "Cases" are just positive tests and not even unique: one person can account for many positive tests and each is listed as an "active case" but this does not indicate sickness.

Howard said...

Blogger ga6 said...
I cannot believe that Howard was in my beloved Corps.


I was a Hollywood Weekend Warrior in the Wing if that makes you feel better.

Jupiter said...

"Yes present tense, equalizing, and in fact will cover the globe eventually as measles and polio and etc have."

When they first rolled out the lockdown tactic, as a means to "flatten the curve", preventing the hospitals from being overwhelmed, it seemed to make sense, although a few prescient individuals pointed out that if the projections were true, "flattening the curve" would require several years of lockdown. But the tactic soon became a strategy; we will prevent the spread of the disease, and therefore no one will get the disease! There are two problems with this strategy;
1 - We can't afford to close down our economy for the rest of time.
2 - Lockdown may slow but does not prevent the spread of the disease.

It is obvious that we have to come out eventually, and when we do, the Covid will be there, waiting. This has been evident from the beginning, but as TIV has kindly demonstrated, anyone who attempts to point out the flaws in this "strategy" is swiftly accused of a desire to kill someone's grandparents.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Even ones he never met, Jupe!

Achilles said...

tim in vermont said...

Which is it, “the disease is no problem because it only kills people over 75” or “They wrongly accuse us of wanting to kill grandma” I can never keep it straight, both are in this thread

You are just being a piece of shit.

mockturtle said...

I urge everyone to read my post @8:50AM. This is not just about the virus. That would be putting the cart before the horse. Take this seriously--it's part of the Great Reset of Globalism [see Klaus Schwab and the WEF] and the plandemic just served as a catalyst for action, as Schwab predicted it would. I beg you to look at the big picture rather than seeing the virus in isolation.

Sigivald said...

"[O]ur schools are not, for the most part, prepared to deliver high quality educational content online."

Remove "online" from the end of that sentence and it's still true, generally, no?

(Well, and note that "content ... delivered" is a weird metric for education?

Does "delivering" high quality "content" teach the kids?

But, again, they're bad at doing that no matter what...)

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Big Picture question: why did almost every country go into “lockdown the healthy” mode for the first time ever? It defies historical trends for similar panics like the Tulip Craze or the original Pandemonium from China?

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

I’ll flip this back at Tim in V too: you tell me what Norway did specifically to achieve that outcome and elucidate how you gauge the effectiveness of their actions versus the demographic factors and cultural habits? I mean I nicely addressed your points and expect you could back them up by answering this one question about Norway, although I’m just as happy to have you pick any other country and explain what they did as opposed to other factors that influence epidemic spread.

Fernandinande said...

Klaus Schwab, WEF Chairman

I bet I could pin that guy.

Seriously though, that's all pretty creepy.

"22 organizations join the COVID Response Alliance for Social Entrepreneurs"

I hope "Social Entrepreneur" is not like "social engineering", which is a fancy term for tricking people into giving out their passwords. Maybe it's worse.

PM said...

I hereby decree that henceforth no state proposition appearing on any ballot may use the terms School, Education or Children.

Achilles said...

mockturtle said...

I urge everyone to read my post @8:50AM. This is not just about the virus. That would be putting the cart before the horse. Take this seriously--it's part of the Great Reset of Globalism [see Klaus Schwab and the WEF] and the plandemic just served as a catalyst for action, as Schwab predicted it would. I beg you to look at the big picture rather than seeing the virus in isolation.

This has been pretty clear to many from the start.

They were losing to Nationalistic movements all over the world.

Fernandinande said...

The WEF page above links to YOUR COVID-19 SOCIAL ENTERPRISE COMMITMENT
"We confirm our support to the COVID-19 Social Enterprise Action Agenda and call on all actors to stand by social entrepreneurs as first responders to the COVID-19 crisis and as pioneers of a green, inclusive society and economic system"

"I commit!" (button that turns blue)

So it IS worse than social engineering.

tim in vermont said...

"Yes present tense, equalizing, and in fact will cover the globe eventually as measles and polio and etc have.”

Tell you what, I will give you that one if the vaccine doesn’t work and the polyclonal antibodies treatments fail. But of course all indications are that they are working, the polyclonal antibodies worked on Trump within hours, and the vaccine seems to be far more effective than people were counting on.

You are assuming that the virus will keep rolling out for all time, and I am expecting a hard stop, at least in advanced industrial countries. What is so hard for you to understand about that? it’s almost as if you have no mathematical training at all.

tim in vermont said...

At some point, if the treatments and vaccines all fail, then yes, the virus is going to spread worldwide and containment is going to be a pointless strategy.

If.

gilbar said...

another question for Tim (in where ever);
Tim? You are OBVIOUSLY so Much Smarter than i am
(i'm sure that's true; i hear it from you all the time)
So tell us!
WHAT should We DO?
We've tried lock downs (which, didn't help; and you Now say you never supported)
We've tried closing schools (which, didn't help; and you Now say you never supported)
We've tried Mask Mandates, (and states like Illinois (with mandates since May,) are having as many new cases per million as states like Iowa (without a mandate 'til today)
So Tim? TELL US! YOU ARE THE EXPERT!!!
What should we do?

The closest i've heard you specify, is that we should turn Japanese
anything else? anything ACTUAL?

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

You are assuming that the virus will keep rolling out for all time, and I am expecting a hard stop, at least in advanced industrial countries. What is so hard for you to understand about that?

Yes I am assuming this virus behaves like all known viruses, including polio and measles, and I'm very clear that I base this on known epidemiology as I said. I'm confused by your insistence it will not behave like known viruses. I am not however surprised you included another gratuitous insult ("it’s almost as if you have no mathematical training at all") instead of supplying any facts. Did you miss my many references to "under the curve" or "the long tail" of the virus in earlier threads? Did you ever study any math that described an area under a curve? Then you might understand more than is in evidence here.

Maybe you can answer one direct question: what do you mean by, "I am expecting a hard stop" above? Do you have an example of "hard stop" you can share?

tim in vermont said...

"We've tried lock downs (which, didn't help; and you Now say you never supported)
We've tried closing schools (which, didn't help; and you Now say you never supported)”

You find the comments where I supported either closing the schools or lockdowns after April. I don’t recall ever supporting lockdowns beyond the first month or so, when I may have when so little was known. I am sure you are really smart gilbar, not stupid like people say, which makes it hard for me to understand why you can’t understand my comments.

I can’t prove a negative, that I never said it, you being smart should know that, but you could back up your calling me a liar by finding one of these comments. All I do here is call bullshit on bullshit.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

How are we doing against the "common cold" rhinovirus variant of SARS/COVID? Do we have an effective seasonal flu vaccine yet? Gee Tim, why not?

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

All I do here is call bullshit on bullshit.

LOLGF. You do so much more than that Tim, much more. All I've seen today is BS piled on BS and ignorant takes. I call bullshit on that!

tim in vermont said...

" Did you ever study any math that described an area under a curve?”

You are integrating from December 2019 or so to ∞, I am integrating until maybe second quarter of next year.

"Do you have an example of "hard stop" you can share?”

Polio with the Salk vaccine, small pox with the vaccine, measles with the vaccine, etc, etc...

mockturtle said...

Fernandinande: Try this one on for size: WE Forum: Pioneers of Change Summit

tim in vermont said...

"Do we have an effective seasonal flu vaccine yet? Gee Tim, why not?”

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/

You are not even trying.

MadTownGuy said...

Q: "Why do we keep asking children to bear the brunt of a lockdown?"

A: To inflict maximum pain on the deplorables and their kids. Because it's all for the children.

n.n said...

Children are least vulnerable to succumb to Covid-19 progression. Their infection is the primary objective to normalize community immunity, thereby reducing vectors and exposure of people who are at risk. Think polio or another communicable disease, where naturally acquired immunity happens in the youngest to minimize spread and collateral damage.

Chennaul said...

Kids would have to maintain distance form each other and wear masks. I do not think this is the kind of “socialization” that we have had in the past so the expert has no point of reference for that.

If socialization is that important in the few months of holidays before the vaccine comes out parents can organize socialization with more adult supervision, with kids from households that they know have not had exposure and will be able to discipline the kids much more effectively on their own.

Socialization with other kids can happen over the internet, it’s the physicality that is missing and you again are not going to get that with the masks and social distancing requirements.

This matches the hysteria on the left about the election— it really will not be that long before the vaccine is out, to claim that kids will somehow be irrevocably harmed by waiting till then is hyperbole. Children are pretty resilient.

n.n said...

science-worshipping governors say schools are superspreaders

While half of the Tokyo population, despite, or possibly because of, widespread mask use, is estimated to be infected, mortality attributed to SARS-CoV-2/Covid-19 is around 3,000. Community immunity (i.e. reduced vectors and subsequent exposure) develops through infection, correlation, or inoculation.

Chennaul said...

Also parents vs. teachers is reductive.

Wisconsin is the state with the fourth most cases per million. However Wisconsin is 27th in deaths per million. Your medical community must be superb. Appreciation for this community seems to have gone on the back burner. A pandemic by definition is “global”, schools are not inside some bubble that does not communicate and have an effect on the greater community, and of course that works both ways. Older people are also part of the community and are owed a voice in this it is not simply parents vs teachers.

pandemic (adj.)
of diseases, "incident to a whole people or region," 1660s, from Late Latin pandemus, from Greek pandemos "pertaining to all people; public, common," from pan- "all" (see pan-) + dēmos "people" (see demotic). Modeled on epidemic; OED reports that it is "Distinguished from epidemic, which may connote limitation to a smaller area." The noun, "a pandemic disease," is recorded by 1853, from the adjective. Related: Pandemia.

Chennaul said...

Blogger Balfegor said...
It made sense to shut down schools back in the spring when we had little data on who was getting infected and how -- children are often more at risk from serious infectious diseases, so it was a reasonable precautionary measure. Forget Western Europe, which has suffered more from coronavirus than most of the US, other than the Northeast. They're not exactly a model for how we should respond, since although they avoided some of our more spectacular screw-ups (e.g. the CDC-designed test fiasco), on average they've done as badly as the US has if not worse.
More persuasively, this is what the densely populated Northeast Asian countries did early in the pandemic -- Japan and Korea.

....................

Google COVID + schools, hit news, select tools organize by date— see what comes up. IOW test your assertion.

n.n said...

Unintended Consequences? Polio and COVID 19

Before the introduction of modern sanitation, polio infection was acquired during infancy, at which time it seldom caused paralysis but provided lifelong immunity against subsequent polio infection and paralysis in later life.

Michelle Dulak Thomson said...

"A friend teaches. When she was out for surgery for two days, there was no sub available so they just skipped history class while she was out."

Once in high school (10th grade, I think), our regular history teacher was out for a week. What did the sub do? She played us "Ivanhoe." As history. (The book is not "historical" at all, apart from having people named King Richard I and King John in it; the movie is much, much worse. Scott could at least write.)

That said, you underestimate public school teachers, who are by no means all idiots. The most annoying parts of the school shutdowns are (1) the near-certainty that all the practices currently in place for distance learning, &c. will continue once there's a universally-available vaccine; and (2) the fact that "distance learning" is simply impossible in some disciplines. My husband is currently trying to keep together three string orchestras and a full orchestra when no one can play with anyone else. At best, individual students can download a mockup of the whole ensemble and add in their line, but differing Internet speeds make synchronizing multiple live players impossible. This, you will understand, kinda defeats the whole point of an orchestra.

n.n said...

Take precautions with grandma. Don't socially distance from her and allow her to evolve/die in isolation. As if Planned Parent wasn't enough.

Achilles said...

tim in vermont said...

You are not even trying.

How many people have died of COVID tim?

What is your source?

Stop being a piece of shit.

Achilles said...

California lawmakers go to Hawaii.

The people telling us this is a health crisis are not acting like it is a health crisis.

Birkel said...

tim in vermont,
For months you took the position that my argument "trade-offs matter" was wrong and we must sacrifice the economy and our personal freedoms to protect old people. So pardon me if I call you a liar.

I was arguing the negative emotional effects that those old people you wanted to protect was negatively impacted. And that we should ask them what they want before imposing our conception of what is best for them. For that you accused me of wanting to kill grandma. Fuck you.

I argued that food shortages would starve poor people in the third world. You never took a position on their future starving. You did, however, advocate economic policy that would lead to lowered food production. So the natural and inevitable results from your policy positions was ambivalence toward third world starving.

Meanwhile, suicides are up. I criticized the lockdowns from the beginning because I could see what was coming. I was arguing about trade-offs. You took the absolutist position. You can pretend otherwise but anybody reading the last eight months knows that your present self-serving rewrite of history is horse shit.

gilbar said...

Another question for Tim (in where ever);
Tim? You are OBVIOUSLY so Much Smarter than i am
(i'm sure that's true; i hear it from you all the time)
So tell us!
WHAT should We DO? So Tim? TELL US! YOU ARE THE EXPERT!!!
What should we do? The closest i've heard you specify, is that we should turn Japanese
anything else? anything ACTUAL?

asking this AGAIN, Tim; because i guess you are SO SMART, that you can't understand English?
Yes, you've stipulated that you think i'm stupid (it's probably my traumatic brain injury)
So, HELP ME TIM! WHAT SHOULD WE DO???
you spend LOTS of time reminding people that
A) they're stupid
B) you're SUPER SMART

please spend, just a Little time, Showing us that you're Smart
I'm ASKING (for about the twentieth time); What should we DO?
Mask Mandates don't seem ti do ANYTHING; if they DID, states with would be doing better
So, WHAT DO YOU THINK WE SHOULD DO?

surely, your Entire plan doesn't consist of telling people that they're stupid
Does IT?

Jim at said...

As I mentioned earlier in the summer, I was out running errands and I noticed a playground full of kids on the swings, the Big Toy, slides ... all without masks.

And those kids were playing on that playground no more than 50 feet from the entrance to a school that still remains closed.

But, hey. At least I'll see a corresponding decrease in my property taxes.

PJ said...

Why do we keep asking children to bear the brunt of a lockdown?

For the same reason we ask them to bear the brunt of trillions of dollars of government debt--they don't know any better than to trust us.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Those are not a hard stop Tim. People still get polio and measles and chicken pox long after we’ve had a vaccine. What’s up with that?

ga6 said...

Jim: the number of children under the age of 18 who have died of chinaflu in California is 2

ga6 said...

Howard: hope you never broke a fingernail sweeping the runways once a month...what squadron/unit and years?

ga6 said...

Howard: What does VMA stand for?

ga6 said...

Howard: No use of google, etc..

Browndog said...

The school system was created and exists only to serve parents. Period.

Now, it only exists to serve the childless that have nothing but contempt for the family unit.

Yet, to this day, few have even noticed.

Gospace said...

Other reasons for the low Korean and Chinese death rates- coronaviruses are a lot more common everywhere in Asia than in the U.S. T-cell immunity seems to the key to those who don't get it. And testing for T-cell immunity is very expensive- so it's not done. I've been exposed twice, maybe three times, to active cases. Two sons- diagnosed by symptoms-especially the loss of taste and smell which don't seem to be very common symptoms for anything else that's going around. And back in February, before they were going crazy about it- my better half had all the symptoms, including loss of taste and smell. That's the maybe 3rd. No symptoms for me- but my Vitamin D level is higher. I'm tested for it. Also, thanks to the Navy, I've been to Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Guam, and a few other places, and likely had a coronavirus cold or two more than average for an American.

As for Howard's memory of boot camp- I don't recall that. Might have happened, but I don't recall it. 1973 is a long time in the past... What I do know is that at the beginning of every SSBN deterrent patrol and SSN specop, everyone shared everything that was going around the first 10 days or so, then nothing for the rest of the patrol. And when we got back, everyone got sick from what was now going around in the world.... I imagine the same thing occurs on skimmer deployments.

Balfegor said...

Re: n.n:

While half of the Tokyo population, despite, or possibly because of, widespread mask use, is estimated to be infected, mortality attributed to SARS-CoV-2/Covid-19 is around 3,000.

What's your source for 50% of Tokyo being infected? I mean, I was there from March until September (and spent much of January and February in Tokyo as well), going out to eat from time to time, shopping, etc., so if 50% of the population were actually infected, I'd guess I'm more likely than not to have been infected. But in three months of using the COCOA contact tracing app, I had only a single close contact with someone later determined to have been infected (almost certainly on the Yamanote train line).

As of June (after the April peak in deaths), antibody tests resulted in an estimated infection rate of 0.1%, although that was based on a sample of 1,971 individuals, with just two testing positive so there's some uncertainty in extrapolating from such small numbers of positive cases. More recently as of the end of October, it looks like Tokyo was at 0.3%, although I don't see the sample size for the more recent test referenced in the article. Tokyo has gone through a second peak in August (albeit with much, much lower mortality) and is climbing again now, so it's not too surprising that the number is higher than June. But there's still a big difference between 0.3% and your 50% estimate. What's your source?

Joe Smith said...

Re: Tokyo...keep in touch with friends there and they say it is going well...

I am playing golf with one Friday and will ask.

Balfegor said...

Re: n.n.

Also, source on 3,000 deaths for Tokyo? Official count is 476 as of yesterday, and while there's some uncertainty around deaths in February/March (there were complaints in a few cases that people who might have died of Wuhan coronavirus weren't tested) it's far short of 3,000. The NIID tracker for flu and pneumonia-type deaths shows excess deaths (blue dots) above baseline (green), but only slightly above the threshhold level (pink). Japan as a whole only has 1,900 deaths. Although to be fair, even if it were 10,000, I'm not sure it would register as more than a blip in excess mortality statistics.

gilbar said...

here's Fun!
PA gov announces new COVID rules, including wearing a mask in your house

In Pennsylvania now, they've announced the Masks work... SO GOOD...
That you have to start wearing them INSIDE YOUR OWN HOME, if you have guests over

Coming up (to try to make Tim happy? I don't know;
he WON'T SAY what he wants, he just keeps telling everyone that HE'S SUPER SMART,
and that EVERYONE ELSE ARE MORONS

but, i assume (judging on his criticism of that Marine Study:
A) Mandatory Masks while Eating (WHILE EATING)
B) Mandatory Masks while sleeping

But, i don't want to try to put words into Tim's mouth; i want to hear HIS PLAN
come ON Tim! tell us dummies your wisdom!!!

jrytrpt said...

I can say that my colleagues, as a rule, don't want to teach virtually. It was forced on us by our school board. The kids are struggling mightily and need to be in school. A lot of teachers see that truth.

Rusty said...

Blogger ga6 said...
"I cannot believe that Howard was in my beloved Corps."
My wife's cousin humped the M60 in Viet Nam. He got the Bronze Star for being the only one left who could still fire a gun. Everyone else being either wounded or dead. As a person he was the kind of shitheel you just wanted to punch.

The Gipper Lives said...

"My hypothesis would be that both Europe and the United States are putting the interests of adults first and the difference is which adults — parents or teachers."

And my hypothesis is that Democrats are so eaten up with Trump Derangement Syndrome that they are willing to burn down their own cities and wreck a generation of children in hopes of regaining national power. And even if they don't, governors and mayors have realized that the Bio-Medical State will let them shutter churches, empty jails and boss people around forever.

Or at least until Lexington and Concord.

Howard said...

ga6: stalker is a good look, for you.

h said...

Here (as often) I see so many reasonable commenters (by which I mean people who agree with me) that I wonder whether (or if not, why not?) these opinions aren't more widespread. Will this (education response to Covid) be the chink (am I allowed to use that word?) in the armor of the union-based public education system?

n.n said...

Balfegor:

You're right. I must have recalled the number from memory. The number on the worldometers.info site is 1,903 for Japan.

Tokyo citizens may have developed COVID-19 herd immunity, say researchers

Yasutaka Hayashida (Medical Corporation Koshikai, Tokyo) and colleagues from Boston Children’s Hospital and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical School, Boston, say their study suggests that seroprevalence for SARS-CoV-2 rose to almost 50% at around the same time cases of COVID-19 waned in the city.

with the caveat:

This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

Reaching the conclusion that they have realized community immunity may be premature, and is based on their estimate of seroprevalence in the population.

Gospace said...

Based on the Elon Musk testing- 4 samples same day same test, two positive, two negative- no one really has any clue how many people have actually had covid, how many people are already immune to it, or anything else about the numbers. The only thing known is- some people have had it, some people have actually died from it, and many others have died with it, but not from it. And many other people have not been diagnosed with other diseases in time to keep them from dying of those other diseases because the healthcare system has been shutdown and ordered to cater to only one diseases- the dreaded covid- which isn't nearly as deadly as advertised.

As I've said many times before- the numbers from the Diamond Princess told us all the basics, and they haven't changed. The dreaded covid isn't as contagious as advertised, isn't as deadly as advertised, and if you're in a high risk category- YOU (not everyone else) should take special care to minimize your chances of getting it. Elsewise- life should go on as life always has. I've seen nothing to change my mind on that. The additional information that has come since the Diamond Princes- if you're not taking Vitamin D- start. Various inhaled steroids if administered EARLY will keep you alive if you're in a high risk category. LAte intervention- with anything, means you're going to die. Dictators Cuomo and Whitmer- and others- have decreed that only late intervention is allowed after 100% assurance you're already dying of it.

Balfegor said...

Re: n.n.:

Thanks. Interesting! Their findings seem to be totally inconsistent with the findings of similar tests reported in Japan -- their starting seropositivity rate for the antibodies was apparently already 5.8% in May 2020, in approximately the same time that the sample of 1,971 individuals in Tokyo had an antibody positivity rate of only 0.1%.

I can't find any references to this result in the Japanese press at least on a brief google. I looked at the institution associations on the draft, though, and this Yasutaka Hayashida appears to be an opthamologist, so this seems a little outside his specialty. I am somewhat skeptical.

I think the reason the summer wave subsided without even a soft lockdown comparable to the April-May voluntary request to stay home is that (1) based on positvity rates and case fatality rates, the July-August peak was actually much, much smaller than the "real" April peak even though the number of test-confirmed cases was significantly higher, and (2) on average, Japanese are really risk averse and willing to modify their behavior as long as their employers will allow it. If you look at subway ridership, there's a huge dip around the April-May stay home request. But then there's another shallower dip starting mid-July. There's a sharp trough around the obon holiday, so it looks more dramatic than it really is, but ignoring that one week outlier, you can see people responded to climbing case counts by modifying their behavior. At the same time, contact tracing identified host clubs as a major vector for the outbreak, and the government arranged for mass testing of cooperating host clubs starting in early July, before the peak in confirmed cases. Contact tracing has never quite caught up (only about 50% of new cases have known close contacts with previously identified cases at least when first confirmed) but they're still working to test and isolate clusters proactively whenever they find them. If it were a huge wave, that might not be enough to tamp it down. But in this case, it just wasn't all that big, when you consider Tokyo's population.

Kirk Parker said...

"This article ... has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]."

The cynical--by which I mean accurate--view is that the real question being asked by peer review is "Will the Beautiful People™ in our field laugh at us if we publish this?"