He gives Amy Coney Barrett 50-50 odds:
Trump has wasted no time in meeting with Barrett, who made her way to the White House and met with the president [on Sept. 21]. According to the New York Times, Trump “spent much of the day with her and later told associates that he liked her, according to people close to the process, who considered her increasingly likely to be the pick.”
(One wonders whether having them spend so much time together was an attempt by Barrett backers to get Trump more comfortable with her. At their prior interview back in 2018, the thrice-married, not-very-religious Manhattan billionaire and the devoutly Catholic, midwestern mother of seven reportedly lacked “chemistry,” concluding their conversation before their allotted time was up.)
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65 comments:
a nickel on Lagoda
I hope its not her. She seems like just the sort of person who will "Grow in office". A "religious catholic" could mean a supporter of open borders. But Trump can nominate who he wants and the Right wing will support him. They really are a bunch of Dumbo's who love to "Fall in line" and "Support our commander in chief". THat's how we got Souter and O'Connor. And almost got Harriet Miers.
But she can't be any worse than Ginsburg.
I am quite certain that Trump is not anti-abortion as he is not misogynist
It could have been "The Long Goodbye." The Cuban seems a better choice right now. Barrett will get her chance.
Someday there is going to be an interesting book written about Trump's time in office and how it changed him.
I thought it was pretty clear last go around that Trump was saving ACB for the RBG vacancy, according to the 'women can only gain power, never lose any' rule in Feminist Doctrine.
I get it.
Why her? Is she the only Catholic? Only pro-life option? Why are conservatives using the same metrics liberals use? What about her findings, and legal reasoning behind them?
1. Appoint ACB to the Supreme Court.
2. ???
3. Roe is overturned, no more dead babies in America.
That appears to be the logic among many conservatives. Further, if her Catholicism makes her pro-life (which it doesn't), it also makes her open borders.
I'm not against her my any means, I just think we need to have a conversation.
Trump is going to choose based on whether or not the nominee can stand up and fight like Kavanaugh did.
Remember Ann thought Kavanaugh was a rapist.
There are millions of people like Ann that WANT to believe whomever Trump nominates is an evil person. They have a desperate need to be better than those icky deplorables.
Whomever is chosen needs to be prepared and capable.
Barrett has got it. Winning the election is all he is focused on. Later the next two who retire will open up nuanced choices. But not now. Trump wants the mid-west Catholic vote ...Now.
Barrett isn't just a conservative catholic.
She's also pretty young.
It'll be her.
Chemistry or perhaps the decision was already made. I am sure they the lineup set at Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and before anyone visited the Whitehouse. Whitehouse visits are for show.
I like ACB. She was who I wanted, and is from Indiana, is Catholic, and teaches at Notre Dame. All wonderful points.
But I'm looking at it politically, Barbara Lagoa is a better pick for Trump. A Latino woman from Florida of Cuban descent? Probably almost locks in Florida for Trump. And Biden has far fewer paths to victory without Florida.
Yep. At this point, the background vetting is done. The key determinant now for the President is "are you ready for an ugly fight?" and "is your family ready for an ugly fight?"
The key question for the nominee candidates has to be "How solid is the whip count? Because I don't want to be raked over the coals for two weeks in the public eye and submit to Harris and Feinstein's abuse and intellectual dishonesty just to become a Senate Collins, Murkowski or Romney to burnish their "maverick credentials" for fifteen minutes and take out their personal petty vengeance on Trump at my expense."
I'd want a green light that barring any substantial new developments, I've got enough of the squishies on board. I don't want a fight that the Senators are too weak for.
Michael K, what? You have been touting ACB since the Kavanaugh nomination. (I also think the 11th Circuit Judge a better choice but she was reportedly blocked from a meeting with POTUS.)
Supposedly Breyer was '93 front runner until lacked chemistry with Clinton. So picked in '93.
Damn. When I first saw your headline, I thought it said Dalai Lama. Talk about clickbait . . . .
My gut tells me all the talk about Barrett is a ruse. Get them thinking fast ball, then hit them with a slider. Just my feeling.
50-50 odds??
so, it either WILL BE HER, or; it WON'T BE HER?
Achilles is correct- the choice will be whichever candidate is willing to not only start the gauntlet process, but who will tough it out without quitting. That was the thing that impressed me most about Kavanaugh- after the intial blow, I thought he would withdraw immediately regardless of whether or not he was actually guilty, but he didn't- he showed a real spine, and a lot of credit goes to Trump for not listening to LLRs in his administration that were whispering to Trump to withdraw the nomination. I am sure the question being asked of the potential candidates is this- "Will you stick out as the media slime your name and harass your family and friends?"
Lagoda enables more Trump point scoring because POC. Greater opportunity for circus acts. She's also more of a wack-a-doodle winger that you people love, right?
Barrett might be a John Roberts sleeper.
"I hope its not her. She seems like just the sort of person who will "Grow in office"."
There has been a disturbing trend in the Catholic Church lately of eschewing liberalism and going full-tilt toward socialism.
I am not a pro-life absolutist...there are so many other things that are killing our society.
Among the biggest are unchecked (illegal) immigration, and on this subject, the Catholic Church is pretty much open borders, so I'd prefer someone who believes that a country's borders can be vigorously enforced.
"Trump's time in office and how it changed him."
This. I think he's acquired some humility and a sense of his limits. He may also be having great fun too.
I don't know why people think he'll try to hang on to power. There are all kinds of things to do as an entrepreneur and former president. And he knows it.
That's assuming they don't put him in prison or have him killed.
It's great to finally see the republican party stop acting like saps and commit to voting for trump's SCOTUS for once. None of this Hamlet crap of "will they or won't they?" They know that democrats plan to smear and libel whomever Trump nominates so don't bother trying to studiously unpack their bullshit and "hear all sides". Have a 1 day hearing then straight to a vote. That's all they deserve.
You only get to use a flower lapel that squirts water or the whoopee cushion once before you spot bad faith democratic chicanery. Fuck these people and their "have you no decency" schtick. That all went out the window with the Kavanaugh debacle. FOAD.
Achilles said...
Trump is going to choose based on whether or not the nominee can stand up and fight like Kavanaugh did. Remember Ann thought Kavanaugh was a rapist.
I agree on the first point. The nominee needs to appear unfazed by the crazy Democrats. Barrett is the pick in that case.
On the second point, I pointed out that Althouse was emotionally manipulated by the CBF psychodrama (as were many other women with a past history of sexual harassment). She gave CBF the benefit of doubt, but did not take a strong stand on her veracity. The absurd rape allegations were not worth commenting on by any sane person.
I’ve always thought giving anything a 50-50 chance is copping out. That’s not a prediction, it’s a fudge. Whichever way it goes you win.
If she's an establishment CoC judge in the Roberts mold, pass. Agree she should not be blindly supported.
Yancey Ward said...
Achilles is correct- the choice will be whichever candidate is willing to not only start the gauntlet process, but who will tough it out without quitting.
*************************************
If there are only three days of hearing, as Mitch says, it won't take much to tough it out.
Trump is always surrounding himself with beautiful women...it can either be a failing or a strength : )
On that metric alone, ACB is the leader in the clubhouse...
Readering said...
Michael K, what? You have been touting ACB since the Kavanaugh nomination. (I also think the 11th Circuit Judge a better choice but she was reportedly blocked from a meeting with POTUS.)
Supposedly Breyer was '93 front runner until lacked chemistry with Clinton. So picked in '93.
This person thinks Kavanaugh is a rapist based on obvious lies told by a woman who couldn't even say what YEAR she got raped.
Readering is another example of a terrible person who will believe anything to justify her amoral positions.
Howard: "Lagoda enables more Trump point scoring because POC. Greater opportunity for circus acts. She's also more of a wack-a-doodle winger that you people love, right?"
"wack-a-doodle winger" = not a communist
Leonard Leo and his Federalist Society are driving the big push to fill federal court vacancies with genuine "conservatives" sayeth the guard at the door and Senate Majority Leader Moscow Mitch McConnell.
But that isn't happening. If you want to be a judge, join the Federalist Society. Judge nominations for lower level judgeships ignore legal qualifications and experience. So, it is all about who you know, not what you know or even your level of conservatism.
As for depending on Trump's ego to ascertain SCOTUS Justice qualifications, forget.about.it. Trump's Mafia leanings always begets dishonesty from his candidates. For example, The Handmaid's Tale makes People of Praise verboten:
There are some indications that Barrett and People of Praise have tried to conceal her affiliation with the group. When asked, spokespeople for the community were tight-lipped about Barrett’s connection to People of Praise. And although Federal bench nominees are required to fill out a detailed questionnaire for the Senate Judiciary Committee, Barrett did not list any religious affiliations on her form, which is publicly available on the Senate Judiciary website.
It's also clear how deeply Barrett is involved in People of Praise [This group believes in a number of radical Pentecostal staples such as prophecy, speaking in tongues, and divine healings]. According to the NYT, both Barrett and her husband’s fathers served as leaders in the group. Barrett has also appeared in issues of the group’s magazine, Vine & Branches. One appearance was an announcement that she and her husband adopted a child. Another was a photograph of Barrett attending a People of Praise women’s gathering. But these once-documented links have disappeared since her [previous] Circuit Court nomination.
Readering said...
Michael K, what? You have been touting ACB since the Kavanaugh nomination.
I'm speculating. That thing that the left gave up years ago. Your team adopted riots and protesting outside people's homes instead of thinking.
"Lacked chemistry." More misreporting.
Trump had already decided to hold that card to play at a more opportune moment. Like now.
Like Lat, I also wonder why Larsen seems not be be under more serious consideration.
Lat meant 2-1 odds on Barrett, 4-1 on Lagoa, etc. It's obvious he does not do sports betting. At least he didn't try to do a point spread or an over/under.
Trump is all American: Pro-Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness. He is a not so bitter clinger to the letter and spirit of our Constitution. They share common principles and will reach a consensus.
3. Roe is overturned, no more dead babies in America.
If it were only that simple. Unfortunately, unlike one-child, selective-child has been legalized under the Twilight Amendment and normalized by the Progressive Church. Baby steps.
If there are only three days of hearing, as Mitch says, it won't take much to tough it out.
I don't think it's going to be that simple. The left has long developed a playbook to disrupt any hearings on RBG's vacancy. Only now it's being revised using the new rules:
COVID
BLM
Rioting and burning
Nobody spends any time in jail.
Besides, many of these quacks believe their life depends on it! I predict the hearings will be fits and starts until they are finally called off and go straight to a vote.
As for depending on Trump's ego to ascertain SCOTUS Justice qualifications, forget.about.it. Trump's Mafia leanings always begets dishonesty from his candidates. For example, The Handmaid's Tale makes People of Praise verboten:
More bullshit from gadfly. Have your hysterics in private, please.
I care a helluva lot more about open borders than abortion. If Roe is overturned it will go to the states, where it should have been all along.
I love this from David Lat's article:
[UPDATE (9:15 p.m.): In case it’s not clear from context, I’m writing this post from the perspective of the Trump Administration. So when I refer to “advantages,” I’m referring to advantages in terms of either promoting a conservative agenda at the Supreme Court or strengthening Trump’s electoral prospects. Advantages to Trump and the Republicans are, of course, disadvantages when viewing the situation from the perspective of the Democrats.]
Apparently his readership is so mentally blinkered that the idea of "looking at the advantages from the perspective of someone who's 'not one of us'" is so utterly foreign to them that it must be explained to them.
The US is so F'ed if Trump doesn't win
BarrySanders20 said...
Lat meant 2-1 odds on Barrett
No. 1:1 odds: you bet $1, you get your bet back and $1 of winnings if the choice comes in. Which is to say : 50-50. Which is what he said.
And so on
Robert Barnes is sure negative on ACB. Nothing good to say about her in his Twitter feed.
I also hope it isn't Barrett. I've known tons of devout Catholics who'd pander to Loony Leftism at the drop of a hat. WWJD and suffer the little children and all that feelgood shit. "Devout Catholic" doesn't mean what it did when Dr. K was growing up in that Polack neighborhood back in the day.
wholelottasplainin' said...
If there are only three days of hearing, as Mitch says, it won't take much to tough it out.
Wrong. That attacks ahve already begun. They will be outside the hearings, not just inside them.
I don't trust Lagoa, or anyone else who gets rated as "highly qualified" by the ABA.
I trust ACB to be true to her oath of office. You "grow in office" when the approval of the "in crowd" is more important to you than the approval of God. No, God is not a Republican. But God does expect you not to bear false witness.
I want someone who has been, and will be, attacked, smeared, and vilified by the Left, who has a source of validation totally outside the Left's control.
That is why I value ACB's religion, and her personal choices. Because she has demonstrated that she will do what she thinks is right, not what the in crowd thinks is right.
So long as she understands that her job is judge, not Legislator, she will make a great judge. I haven't heard of her legislating from the bench, or arguing that it's right and proper for judges to legislating from the bench.
Absent that, she's the one I want for this seat
Poor Gadfly, missed the "update" where Newsweek admitted that "People of Praise" was NOT the inspiration for "The Handmaid's Tale"
Dude, keep up!
So Murkowski changed her mind. Probably the prospect of a formidable primary challenge by the Sarah Palin focussed her thinking. It’s all over but the whining and the lamentations of the tweeters.
Trump wants the mid-west Catholic vote ...Now
I that a thing? ...and who would they be voting for if he chooses someone else?
...and I'm not sure what the definition of 'open borders' is. Like the Obama administration? Like the opposite of nobody gets to come here? From what I read ACB is likely somewhere in between those two...
It's my understanding that ACB is a member of People of Hope, not People of Praise.
"Devout Catholic" doesn't mean what it did when Dr. K was growing up in that Polack neighborhood back in the day.
I agree. Especially Notre Dame. My high school girlfriend was a Polack but the neighborhood was about half Irish and half Jewish. I was a member of the Young Men's Jewish Council because they had a better basketball court than the YMCA. The synagogues are all now Black Muslim mosques.
Unless Trump wishes to unleash the torrent of Democrat anti-Catholic, anti-Christian bile during the hearings - not a bad idea - Lagoa is the better choice. She has more judicial experience, she has more time in private practice actually appearing before judges, her parents were refugees from communist/socialist Cuba and she’s from Florida where Trump could use a boost. She passed out of the Senate 85-15 last time. Think of the nominating speech!
I am, of course, assuming she is an originalist conservative.
Barrett’s supporters are unlikely to leave him if he chooses Lagoa.
tim in vermont said...
So Murkowski changed her mind.
She used the Big-10 playbook. If I step out first and cancel the season, all others will be pressured to follow.
Gotta give Mitch credit for stomping out the brush fire before the forest burned to the ground.
When Trump is replacing Breyer, what will Democraticals threaten to burn down?
Greg The Class Traitor: "Poor Gadfly, missed the "update" where Newsweek admitted that "People of Praise" was NOT the inspiration for "The Handmaid's Tale"'
gadfly is that dumb kid at the back who is feverishly writing down what everyone else is saying so he/she/xe can use it later....but since he/she/xe is such an imbecile, he/she/xe always ends up using that purloined thoughts of others incorrectly.
It ceased being amusing around June of 2016 and gadly has only degraded further since.
TickTock: "It's my understanding that ACB is a member of People of Hope, not People of Praise."
Nice try random lefty.
You'll have to head back over to Yahoo or DemocraticUnderground if you are going to continue to try and sell transparent BS like that.
Best of luck to you in all your future FakeNews endeavors! gadfly has you covered in that department here so rest easy.
WaPo has Trump up 4 in Florida.
Even with latinos.
Those of you pretending Trump is not way ahead need to get a grip.
gilbar said...
50-50 odds??
so, it either WILL BE HER, or; it WON'T BE HER
No, it means if you bet a dollar on Barrett getting the nomination and she gets it, you win a dollar
Barret is too perfect, in the same way that Roberts appeared perfect. I've heard what Barnes Law has to say and can understand his point, but not necessarily buy it. But I do think that of all the candidates, Barret wants it the most, badly and that puts me off right away. One spotlight-hogging swing vote on the bench is enough, and Roberts has already shown his relish. I think Barret going to the White House for briefings also smacks of classic Trump deception tactics. And the opposition press has taken the bait and started publishing the Hand Maiden's tale response.
That leaves Lagoa, who I think is the better candidate. I don't think Trump is scared of starting a brawl, but I don't think he wants one, either. If he puts a reasonable candidate in front of the Judiciary rather than the perceived extremist and the Democrats turn nasty, he gets what he wants: More highly-assured confirmation, and ease-up for the challenged Republican Senators, and the Democrats showing their ass, as usual.
There are two goals: Getting the seat filled, and keeping the Senate majority.
"so, it either WILL BE HER, or; it WON'T BE HER..."
But is it a Hobson's choice?
Discuss amongst yourselves...
I kind of agree with Aggie.
I'm Catholic and I agree with Aggie too.
I don’t know any conservative Catholics (orthodox) who want open borders.
Poor Gadfly, missed the "update" where Newsweek admitted that "People of Praise" was NOT the inspiration for "The Handmaid's Tale"
Also missed the reveal that "Handmaid's Tale" is in the Fiction aisle.
Patting ourselves on the back being clever at not having accepted the first one, we seem ready to accept the second one. What of the leading candidates, I think five have been named in total, other than Barrett and Lagoa?
Let's assume Trump wins.
Should Clarence Thomas resign in a year or two just to be sure Trump appoints his successor?
wild chicken,
People on the left don't think Trump will try to hang onto power, they fear will... they know it in their heart of hearts.
It's just projection, that's all.
tim in vt,
I was hoping Murkowski found a dead horse's head in her bed, but I guess I'll settle for threat of a strong primary challenger if that's all we've got.
But wait... shouldn't Palin try to primary her anyway?
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