Althouse: "Former Vice President Joe Biden saw no immediately measurable increase to his substantial lead over President Donald Trump following this week’s largely virtual Democratic National Convention..."

August 22, 2020

"Former Vice President Joe Biden saw no immediately measurable increase to his substantial lead over President Donald Trump following this week’s largely virtual Democratic National Convention..."

"A new Morning Consult poll of 4,377 likely voters conducted Friday found Biden leads Trump by 9 percentage points, 52 percent to 43 percent, statistically unchanged from a Monday survey of 4,141 likely voters, when he led the president by 8 points."

The NYT is running an article titled "Is the ‘Convention Bounce’ a Thing of the Past?"

61 comments:

Drago said...: Morning Consult Poll!!

LOLOLOL

The "polling" outfit started in order to do polling on how everyone was going to be joyously signing up for obambiCare!!

Well, lets take that to the bank!; 8/22/20, 12:53 PM
David-2 said...: Seems a little early for this article, huh? Shouldn't they be waiting until after the RNC convention next week? Then maybe you could see if there's a this year there's a trend worth commenting on ...; 8/22/20, 12:53 PM
Ice Nine said...: >>The NYT is running an article titled "Is the ‘Convention Bounce’ a Thing of the Past?"<<

The ol' memory hole is sure going to be useful for the NYT and this article after the Republican Convention, now isn't it.; 8/22/20, 12:54 PM
Drago said...: Morning Consult has never been anything other than a democrat narrative push operation.

Ever.

Closer to the election, as in 2016, MC will "close it up a bit" after spending months proclaiming Biden far far ahead........; 8/22/20, 12:55 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Shorter NYTimes:

"Pollsters were afraid of being openly mocked if they tried to increase Biden's lead."

If you take a deeper think, you will realize I am right. They have blown up Biden's lead so much that the risk is real that the polls start being seen as self-parody. It also explains the earlier story you posted about. The media realize they might have boxed themselves in by proclaiming the race being over, just like they did in 2016, by the way. I think the media might be on the verge of learning something- that their narrative building in this regard doesn't really work to suppress Republican voters at all, but might actually backfire in making Democrats too complacent. I believe this might have been true in 2016- all the "Trump is Toast" narrative did was suppress Democrat voters, the only people who believe what they read in the NYTimes and WaPo.; 8/22/20, 1:03 PM
Gahrie said...: Does anyone believe that Biden is going to win by eight or nine points?; 8/22/20, 1:06 PM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: Convention bounces are usually ephemeral anyway. But to fail to move the needle at all? Support for Biden is wafer thin. The mere passage of time crumbles it.; 8/22/20, 1:06 PM
hstad said...: NYTimes running it's so-called printing (propoganda) press. Interesting no mention of other polls which exhibit Mr. Trump's rise in the polls before and after the DNC convention.?; 8/22/20, 1:08 PM
wild chicken said...: Wow, that's uh pretty unusual no?

Wouldn't be funny if Woke DNC had the same turnoff effect as Woke ESPN?; 8/22/20, 1:15 PM
Original Mike said...: "Seems a little early for this article, huh? Shouldn't they be waiting until after the RNC convention next week? Then maybe you could see if there's a this year there's a trend worth commenting on ..."

If the Republicans do get a bounce, then they don't have a story. So they're doing this now when they can.; 8/22/20, 1:19 PM
Gospace said...: After next week there’ll be an article on how convention bounces are ephemeral and temporary and don’t mean anything.

I think Trump waited until the Democrats actually nominated Biden before going into full blown campaign mode. Going to be a lot harder replacing him now,; 8/22/20, 1:21 PM
rehajm said...: In case you tuned into Althouse late, there are other outlets with data showing Biden's convention bounce was minus 6...; 8/22/20, 1:23 PM
tommyesq said...: need to have a convention to have a convention bounce. Sad.; 8/22/20, 1:24 PM
Char Char Binks, Esq. said...: Democrats are already protesting democracy ahead of the Republican convention.; 8/22/20, 1:31 PM
readering said...: As with bounces generally, what goes up, then comes down.; 8/22/20, 1:32 PM
Sebastian said...: "Is the ‘Convention Bounce’ a Thing of the Past?"

Yes, like snow.; 8/22/20, 1:46 PM
Jerry said...: "We hate Trump, we hate Trump, we're making nebulous promises, aren't they great? And no details at all, and we hate Trump. That should be enough to get you to buy in and give us all your support. Did we mention that we hate Trump?"

They had pretty much nothing substantive except promising to undo everything Trump's done, and raise taxes. What in the hell are we supposed to be thinking, that by jacking up prices and re-instituting a lot of economy-stifling regulations that somehow things are supposed to get BETTER? Because that's what Presidents are supposed to do - manage (NOT RULE) the country.

The Dems want to rule, not manage. They'd be happy ruling over ruins.; 8/22/20, 1:51 PM
n.n said...: "Is the ‘Convention Bounce’ a Thing of the Past?"

Yes, like snow.

And beachfront properties.; 8/22/20, 1:54 PM
JPS said...: Jerry, 1:51:

Spot on. The sole “positive” part of their pitch is, Put us back in charge, won’t that be better?

What they don’t seem to understand is that them in charge, even the sainted Barack and Michele, begat the Trump presidency in the first place - for reasons the loathsome but very sharp Bill Clinton sized up in 2016.; 8/22/20, 1:56 PM
RMc said...: Shorter NYT: "Biden is so far ahead, it's pointless to vote for Trump. Indeed, it's racist to do so."; 8/22/20, 1:57 PM
Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...: lefties always push "New Normal" propaganda

it usually means 'accept something shitty or low-performance'; 8/22/20, 2:03 PM
MartyH said...: Yancey-

"I believe this might have been true in 2016- all the "Trump is Toast" narrative did was suppress Democrat voters, the only people who believe what they read in the NYTimes and WaPo."

We know it is true in Inga's case- a Wisconsin voter who pulled the lever for Jill Stein rather than Hillary because Hillary had it in the bag.; 8/22/20, 2:04 PM
Gunner said...: Don't they do this article every year when the Dem Convention beclowns itself?; 8/22/20, 2:05 PM
hstad said...: How the hell could he lead Trump by 9 points nationally and be tied with him in the bluish state of Minnesota? Someone’s clearly wrong. By a lot.

Lay all of that aside for a second and let’s look at the numbers. The Minnesota data comes from Trafalgar, the pollster that nailed Trump’s upsets in the Rust Belt four years ago. Trafalgar is a Republican firm as well and consistently produces rosier numbers for the president than nearly anyone else. Is that because they have special insight into how “shy Trumpers” are voting or is it because there’s a Republican lean to their polling that’s distorting the true picture of the race?

Meanwhile in Pennsylvania: Biden drew support from 49% percent of likely state voters and 45% backed Trump, when those leaning toward a particular candidate were included. That four-point gap is within the poll’s margin of error…

For two reasons these polls are hard to compute, at least at first glance.
1: my tds blinds me to the most basic reality.
2: polls are supposed to be my safe space ?!? What is happening?!?!?; 8/22/20, 2:15 PM
Browndog said...: NYT: Donald Trump very little evil today to add to his already super duper evil legacy.

NYT: Florida governor DeSantis killed several Floridians today adding to the thousands and thousands and thousands of Floridians he already killed by Covid019.

NYT: Slightly above average temperatures today adding to the already scorched Earth death of a dying planet caused by climate change.; 8/22/20, 2:26 PM
deepelemblues said...: The convention couldn't even get more Trump voters to lie to the pollster and say they're voting for Biden? Daaaaamn.; 8/22/20, 2:28 PM
Amadeus 48 said...: Joe can take that 9 point lead to the bank, but he better not sign anything.; 8/22/20, 2:42 PM
Drago said...: Yancey WRd: "I believe this might have been true in 2016- all the "Trump is Toast" narrative did was suppress Democrat voters, the only people who believe what they read in the NYTimes and WaPo."

Actually, FakeCon LLR's also believe what they read in the NYT and WaPo....but thats because they are indeed democrats.

And always have been.; 8/22/20, 2:43 PM
Michael K said...: readering said...
As with bounces generally, what goes up, then comes down.

Or, sometimes it goes down and never goes up. "Dead cat bounce" it's called.; 8/22/20, 2:44 PM
hstad said...: "The NY Times" again omits a key poll which doesn't agree with their narrative?

The Rasmussen Report's daily average for Trump, which is spread over three days, hit 51% this week (during the DNC convention) — and has stayed there.

On the first day of the Democratic National Convention, Trump's approval rating was 47%.; 8/22/20, 2:52 PM
SteveB said...: Joe got the Hillary face forward into the limo bounce.; 8/22/20, 2:57 PM
Amadeus 48 said...: I am really glad to get the NYT’s take on this. Their reputation for reliability goes back to Walter Duranty. He got a Pulitzer, you know. And they nailed Trump’s collusion with Russia. Why, they out-investigated Robert Mueller, and he had grand juries at his disposal. Well, I guess NYT had better sources. There is very little that beats old-fashioned shoe-leather reporting. The walls were closing in. They expected multiple indictments. Adam Schiff and Jerry Nadler were on the case. The other shoe was about to drop, etc.

If your mother says she loves you, check it out.

Right?; 8/22/20, 2:57 PM
rcocean said...: Hello? They're trying to HIDE Biden. Why? because they know the more people see of him, and know about the Democrat's platform, the fewer votes they'll get. He's now got back in the basement, without answering any tough questions, or any questions, from the press. So, I'm mystified he didn't lose votes after the convention.

Its getting insane. We're about to elect a 78 y/o man, who can't leave his house, President of the USA. How is Biden going to meet with foreign leaders? Are they all going to drop by his White House Bedroom?; 8/22/20, 3:00 PM
rcocean said...: BTW, I sincerely doubt the R Convention will have a big bounce either. Why? People know Trump.; 8/22/20, 3:01 PM
Temujin said...: Again the question must be asked: Is the New York Times a thing of the past?; 8/22/20, 3:08 PM
rightguy said...: They need a Willy Horton, eh ? New York, Portland, Seattle, Baltimore, etc are currently full of Willy Hortons.; 8/22/20, 3:09 PM
Skeptical Voter said...: Well in your declining stock markets you sometimes see such things as a "dead cat bounce".

And if you run a doom and gloom Democrat convention, don't expect a "dead campaign bounce".

We'll see. Both Trump and Biden are distasteful to large swathes of the voters. I hope that however the election turns out, it's not close. Because if it is, we'll be faced with multiple lawsuits and a reprise of Al Gore's attempt to win the election in court. The country can't stand another such episode.

And Hillary Clinton deserves an extra trainload of coal to stoke the subterraneand fires for her "The Russkies did it" claim. See what it has gotten us.; 8/22/20, 3:12 PM
eric said...: Here's how we will know.

The numbers.

Something like 22 million watched Joe Biden give his speech. How many will watch Trump?

How many will watch the RNC vs how many watched the DNC?

I suspect if it's more for the RNC, the media will either hide or excuse it.

If it's less, the media will make a big deal out of it and claim it's a sign Joe will win.

And they'll be right in the second case, but wrong in the first.; 8/22/20, 3:34 PM
Doug said...: Is The New York Times a thing of the past?; 8/22/20, 3:49 PM
Tyrone Slothrop said...: Substantial lead, my ass.; 8/22/20, 3:54 PM
Banjo said...: If I want a glimpse into the future, I slaughter a goat on the temple steps and study its innards for auguries. This costs a lot less than using questions that give you the results you want.; 8/22/20, 4:21 PM
walter said...: Ah...a "systemic" analysis.

readering said...As with bounces generally, what goes up, then comes down.
--
Science!; 8/22/20, 4:23 PM
Spiros said...: Hillary Clinton also held sizable leads, peaking at seven percentage points in early August and mid-October 2016. But Mrs. Clinton's lead was never for more than a few days or weeks. Biden has been up 8 or 9 points for two months now.; 8/22/20, 4:33 PM
Drago said...: Spiros: "But Mrs. Clinton's lead was never for more than a few days or weeks. Biden has been up 8 or 9 points for two months now."

Dem operatives decide they need to work harder to pump up Dementia Joe's campaign and thats good enough for Spiros.; 8/22/20, 5:20 PM
The Godfather said...: Polls before Labor Day have NEVER been meaningful. The Summer is usually a slow season/silly season for news anyway. Joe and Josephine Voter don't pay attention to political campaigns before Labor Day (and even with a pandemic going on, most folks have other things on their minds). Biden's big hope is to be able to avoid the 3 debates v. Trump. The Mainscream Media will back him on that effort. But Oh Golly Miss Molly I really REALLY want to see those!; 8/22/20, 5:20 PM
tim maguire said...: A thing of the past? That's stupid, and just what I expect from the Times. But this year was going to be a lot tougher and I'm not surprised the Dems didn't get much of a bounce. The Reps have the advantage of going second, so they might be able to do better, but probably not.; 8/22/20, 6:33 PM
Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...: "Is the ‘Convention Bounce’ a Thing of the Past?"

"Let's diminish whatever significance it has, since Slo Jo got none,

...and Trump will get a nice one"; 8/22/20, 6:49 PM
roesch/voltaire said...: More bat shit tweets from Trump conspiracy mind set will definitely help with his base.; 8/22/20, 7:10 PM
Gk1 said...: "lefties always push "New Normal" propaganda it usually means 'accept something shitty or low-performance'"

The DNC convention is the low flow shower head and toilets of the Democratic party. RNC & Trump Convention are the pre-EPA approved plumbing devices that always worked as needed.

I don't even think the lefties believe these polls and feel like they are being humored because they can't handle the reality of another Trump term they helped shape. The polls showing Biden ahead are the "He has a great personality" but we all know what that really means.; 8/22/20, 7:31 PM
Joe Smith said...: This is the first convention I remember where one party didn't lay out a case for what they've accomplished in the past that would earn a vote in the election.

The Democrats have zero accomplishments in the past four years. They've wasted their time trying to tie Trump to Russia.

Pelosi is one cagey bitch, but she got steamrolled by the young radicals in her party.

And how in God's name did they even allow Bernie to run as a Democrat? He's not a Democrat!

They really fucked up. If they win, it will be worth it for them. If they lose, they will have a problem on their hands...; 8/22/20, 7:57 PM
DavidUW said...: When Trump gets a yuuuuge bounce post the RNC, the spin from NYTimes would be amusing, if I ever read past whatever Ann posts.

(Of course the bounce is inevitable, since again, the pollsters can't help themselves, putting out idiot polls saying Biden is more than 5 points ahead, so the inevitable tie that they start publishing will seem that Trump has all the momentum).; 8/22/20, 7:58 PM
Michael K said...: oesch/voltaire said...
More bat shit tweets from Trump conspiracy mind set will definitely help with his base.

R/V will be astounded to learn that the Chinese consulate in Houston (the one Trump shut down) was training BLM rioters. Of course, those are peaceful protests so, unless R/V takes a wrong turn downtown some day, there is no news but OrangeMan Bad.; 8/22/20, 8:22 PM
Michael K said...: oesch/voltaire said...
More bat shit tweets from Trump conspiracy mind set will definitely help with his base.

R/V will be astounded to learn that the Chinese consulate in Houston (the one Trump shut down) was training BLM rioters. Of course, those are peaceful protests so, unless R/V takes a wrong turn downtown some day, there is no news but OrangeMan Bad.; 8/22/20, 8:22 PM
Greg The Class Traitor said...: David-2 said...
Seems a little early for this article, huh? Shouldn't they be waiting until after the RNC convention next week?

No, the point of a "convention bounce" is it happens during / right after the convention; 8/22/20, 8:43 PM
Drago said...: roesch/voltaire: "More bat shit tweets from Trump conspiracy mind set will definitely help with his base."

Russia collusion conspiracy nut, ukraine impeachment hoaxer, Kavanaugh gang rape hoaxer, post office crisis hoaxer, Qanon hoaxer, Boogaloo-er hoaxer checks in to accuse those who didn't buy into the hoax conspiracies of being conspiracists....because of course.

Come to think of it, r/v never even admitted he/she/xe was lying about how Trump fed goldfish in Japan.

That's how moronic r/v and pals are.; 8/22/20, 9:24 PM
Birkel said...: Spiros is lying, of course.

Hillary's "lead" was double digits.

Why are the trolls so stupid all the time?; 8/22/20, 10:15 PM
daskol said...: As always, it's inadvisable to be an overconfident youth, but combine this...

their narrative building in this regard doesn't really work to suppress Republican voters at all, but might actually backfire in making Democrats too complacent

.,..with all the neurotic people afraid to go to the polls, virus fear, and you realize: you can control the whole fucking media just about, but if you are running your shit by committee, it's going to backfire. Maybe it's time for deep state central to call in some management consultants and rework their strategy and stuff.; 8/23/20, 12:01 AM
DeepRunner said...: The New York Times said...
"Former Vice President Joe Biden saw no immediately measurable increase to his substantial lead over President Donald Trump following this week’s largely virtual Democratic National Convention..."

Yeah, let's see. I looked at that likely-voters poll on the Morning Consult site. All I saw was one metric: "Pick one." Beyond that, in their summary, I can't see demographics, which would be a better indicator of a more-complete picture. How many Dems vs. Repubs were in that poll? What were the age, gender, and ethno-cultural breakouts? Were there geographic biases?

I don't have my head in the sand on this. Just not ready to grant the credence to something that supports the NYT view that it's already over.; 8/23/20, 1:35 AM
Big Mike said...: I think the “bounce” was that Biden didn’t slide even further in the polls. It was a crappy convention, long on hatred of Donald a Trump and without hard policy prescriptions. They will unify us? How? At gunpoint? As a party they spent the whole of the 21st entity being a divisive force in American politics.; 8/23/20, 4:21 AM
Jamie said...: Greg TCT, did you misunderstand the question about the NYT's being premature in asking whether the "convention bounce" is no longer a thing?

You said a "convention bounce" happens during or immediately after a convention - yes, of course. But there's another convention coming, next week. If Trump does see a bounce during or immediately after that convention, the NYT's trend-spotting will have been shown to be premature. See?; 8/23/20, 8:10 AM
Linda Seebach said...: The site realclearpolitics tracks betting odds. The largest gap between Biden and Trump was on July 31, at 24.6 points. It's been falling since and when I looked this morning it was down to 12.3, which is exactly half. No Kamala bounce, no convention bounce.
(click on the link to see the complete graph).

Of course the betting markets were wrong in 2016, favoring Hillary 70 to 80 points over Trump.; 8/23/20, 8:31 AM