"... when assessing how voters evaluate Trump and where his approval ratings might go, it's perhaps important to note that both COVID and the protests involve profound disruptions to everyday life..."

"... in a way that say impeachment didn't. The protests perhaps slightly less so if you're not living in a major city, although there are also a lot of protests in smaller cities. But the images on TV will instantly remind Americans everywhere that 'this is not normal.' But there are a lot of voters who, in ordinary times, are softly pro-Trump. They may not like his conduct. But they think 'politics is silly,' 'both sides are so partisan,' 'this stuff is overblown.' LOTS of people in this bucket and they are underrepresented on social media. This is usually contingent, though, on their financial circumstances going OK and basically being able to live life as normal. They may be forced to reassess when there are big disruptions. It's these people Trump should be worried about."

Tweets Nate Silver.

I was reading that slowly and thinking about each step, and I can honestly say that I was surprised by the last statement — "It's these people Trump should be worried about."

It's these people Trump should be worried about? I think if you're softly pro-Trump, you want things to be getting back to normal — emerge from the lockdown, restore order along with more harmonious racial relations, and build the economy back up. You want to see that happen and you want to believe that is happening. I'm thinking that these people won't be receptive to Democratic Party arguments aimed at exaggerating and increasing the disease-and-racism negativity we've been experiencing.