June 10, 2020

"Terrified after watching economies built over the course of decades hollow out in a matter of weeks, countries seem to be saying, in effect: Enough."

"For health officials who have been watching the virus with alarm as it began claiming a foothold in continent after continent, it is a dizzying moment.... While infection rates in the hardest-hit cities in United States and Europe may have slowed, the virus remains deeply woven into the fabric of the world. Indeed, the global peak of infection may still be months away.... Even some countries that moved against the virus head on are losing ground. Among them is India. 'There will be a total ban of coming out of your homes,' Prime Minister Narendra Modi told his citizens on March 24. 'Every state, every district, every lane, every village will be under lockdown.'...  India is a country of 1.3 billion, and hundreds of millions of its citizens are destitute, with countless millions living in packed urban areas with poor sanitation and weak public health care. Despite the swift action, the country is now grappling with a sharp surge of infections.... But this week, Indians can once again dine out, shop and pray at religious sites."

From "The World Reopens, Despite Skyrocketing Coronavirus Cases/The number of infections is rising faster than ever, but many countries have decided that this is the moment to ease lockdown restrictions" (NYT)

40 comments:

John Borell said...

Welcome to the party pal. Some of us has been saying this for months.

rehajm said...

I'm surprised people tolerated more than six weeks anywhere. Now people are socializing to dine, work, protest, socialize. Humans gotta human. Despite predictions we'll stop staring at each other in bad lighting on tiny cameras and start flying to see each other. Might as well cause you're not getting out of your lease for all that office space...

Howard said...

I thought Achilles (Trump's meat puppet) told us summer and high temperature countries like India would eradicate the Covid-19 via UV radiation? To be fair, a lot of people got a lot of things wrong... such is the nature of real-time novel pandemonium. "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." (Yogi Berra)

Remember whatever you do don't wear masks otherwise you people will look exactly like an endless loop of Jerry Nadler at the rostrum. If you want to be impotent you have to look impotent.

tim maguire said...

No sane person ever argued that we should keep economies closed until the death rate reached zero. It’s a balancing act—the costs of this or that approach weighed against the costs of doing nothing. The costs of all of the approaches go up over time, while the cost of doing nothing goes up, peaks, and then goes down. It is inevitable that at some point doing nothing will become the best approach. Reasonable people can disagree on when, precisely, we reach that point, but we will reach it. (Have reached it?)

Rusty said...

The left and half of the "woke" conservatives don't know how this machine works and their surprise when when it quits working is, well, delicious. Heinlien was a fucking prophet.
Now if the chuckleheads would just stand aside....................................

Oso Negro said...

Given the spurious source, the story could be true or could be false. But where I have been - Galveston and Tulsa - people are totally done. The government experts can say what they will, but the public is done. Air travel between the two cities is entirely depressing and not a sustainable industry. And I would love to go visit my properties abroad, but it isn’t clear to me when the borders will open or whether this country will disintegrate first. I guess rebel city states is coming soon. How many blocks of Seattle now?

JackWayne said...

Skyrocketing? Surely the next news will be that the hospitals have been overrun and we need to “flatten the curve” again. Right?

gilbar said...

imagine that you wanted to do something...
imagine that there were risks involved....
imagine if they told you not only couldn't do it; but you couldn't even leave your house...

NOW! imagine that this activity was
driving
having unprotected sex
protesting
simply BEING

So, it's okay, be outraged about the first three; but you should quietly submit to the fourth?

Mike Sylwester said...

The people in India can say they are joining the world-wide protest against the police execution of George Floyd, and so they don't have to comply with social-distancing rules any more.

Temujin said...

Get busy living, or get busy dying.

Leland said...

They decided the moment was over a month ago.

Sebastian said...

The key, as always, is not infections but complications.

The key to a rational response, as always, is to weigh actual health benefits against health and economic costs.

Most recent evidence from Europe: more interaction and density after reopening caused no increase in problems. Experts hardest hit.

Wouldn't want to extrapolate directly to India et al.: the most important thing to do, isolating the really vulnerable, will be harder to do there.

Gusty Winds said...

Infections do not equal hospitalizations. The NYT's has gone full propaganda. Liberal lemmings will eat it up. They love fear whether or not they actually believe it. Gives them windmills at which they can tilt.

tim in vermont said...

It’s every man for himself and his family now. The world can’t stop.

Obviously the severity of the riots stemmed from the pent up energy of the stir crazy.

Obviously our 'leaders’ suck.

Obviously our media has been co-opted by billionaires with agendas that have little to do with what would be best for the average person.

We are experiencing a “cultural revolution” and they don’t want to hear any of the “master’s logic.” The country has turned into a shithole of quicksand. This is a victory for them for me to say that. They are trading an economy that is based on increasing the general wealth for one based on allocation of power, which is a zero sum, usually winner take all (cough cough, Joe Stalin, Kim of the Norks, Mao, Xi). Like lambs to the slaughter, our kids are being led into the pen.

In 1640 the puritans took power in England through these same kinds of riots. In 1646, the people of London were rioting again against the Puritans who had outlawed the celebration of Christmas. The same 12 days off that they had used to seize power through riots of apprentices who had 12 days free. The English got what they had rioted for good and hard. These people are a kind of puritan too. There is no reasoning with them and whatever concessions you make to them only gives them a sense of power and leads them to demand more.

I can leave and I plan to leave.

daskol said...

We were always going to forget about microscopic death, and quickly. It just doesn't tug at the imagination like death from above, for example. Every once in a while a medical thriller book or movie will capture the imagination, but it's not a reliable way to entertainingly terrify people.

richlb said...

The lockdown set us back 5 years. The lockdown was a mistake that will never publicly be acknowledged.

Mrs. X said...

Are more people dying or are there only more cases? Isn’t the rising number of infections the result of more testing? I am so sick of being told A. I’m going to get COVID and die or B. I’m going to unknowingly give it to someone else who will then die. I’ll manage my risk, you manage yours. Government, keep your hands off my body.

Mal said...

@Howard, one thing to keep in mind is that summer arrives at different times across the world.

Australia and New Zealand had summer right at the beginning of Covid-19. That's part of the reason why they are in such good shape. Let's see how long that lasts given that they will soon enter winter.

For India, they spent their entire summer in lockdown. But their summer is now ending, and they are entering the Monsoon (rainy) season. You can imagine what that will do for infection rates.

I wonder what Latin America will be like? They already had a ridiculous situation, and now, Winter is Coming...

Wince said...

For statistical purposes was George Floyd's death deemed Covid-19 related, as it was reported he tested positive at autopsy?

gilbar said...

Howard said...
I thought Achilles (Trump's meat puppet) told us summer and high temperature countries like India would eradicate the Covid-19 via UV radiation?


JackWayne said...
Skyrocketing? Surely the next news will be that the hospitals have been overrun and we need to “flatten the curve” again. Right?


As Al Smith would say, Let's Take a Look, at The Record
India, 8,852 new cases yesterday, less than HALF of the USA
Total cases Per Million:199 One FUCKING THIRTIETH of the USA
Total deaths Per Million:6 One FUCKING FIFTIETH of the USA

gilbar said...

Oops forgot to give a reference
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

Skeptical Voter said...

Sometimes people come to realize that the "cure" is worse than the disease.

Tarrou said...

So what they're saying is that they jumped the gun on lockdowns, spread them too broadly, and now people are fed up and also finding out that their models and predictions are horseshit. Oh, and since the left now wants to get out and burn shit, the media has to run interference for them and explain why it's ok to get tens of thousands of people together in the street. It's tough explaining why the rules only apply to your political opponents, but someone has to try.

WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...

Had enough Hillary-Wuhan Chi-Com virus?

Yeah.

NCMoss said...

It seems the most useful bit of data is hospitalizations due to Covid-19. If most people recover from it and we provide extra care for the elderly and infirm then the rationalization for another lock-down is extremely weak.

Ray - SoCal said...

There is still a lot unknown about Covid 19. And the failure of many of the experts has not helped. The world is not rich enough to just stay at home, not working.

Sweden seems to be doing generally OK, without destroying the economy.

Key is protect the vulnerable (nursing homes), while allowing the economy to keep going.

Masks, I believe, help a lot. Unfortunately the so called experts squandered their credibility by extending the lock down, that many don't believe them on masks.
https://masks4all.co/

And a huge unknown, is if we were locked down in LA for example, where were the new infections coming from. My guess a lot of CYA by not giving out this information. Especially where nursing homes have been a huge reservoir for the disease.

holdfast said...

Again, we flattened the curve. The ICUs are not overwhelmed, and never were. NYC got close for a bit, but even there they were never completely full (even though they mismanaged everything about as badly as possible).

So what now?

Are we really supposed to cower in place, waiting for a vaccine that may never come, or may be only partially effective. Oh, and by the by we unemployed tens of millions of Americans, released thousands of violent felons from jails, and now we’re surprised to be seeing violent riots? And NOW they tell us that protesting for racial justus is permitted, but all other gatherings are not? We truly have the worst expert class, ever.

Rory said...

"I can leave and I plan to leave."

It's like Ethan Allen, come back to life.

Michael said...

There are 45 thousand new cases worldwide. That is not “skyrocketing” NYT though you might wish it were so. Worldwide the number of serious cases is 54,000 the rest of the 3.3 million active cases are considered mild. There are 7.8 billion humans. Look at these numbers and consider them then remember the concept of perspective. 15 billion legs have been pulled.

mikee said...

Power can be grabbed by a bold stroke during a societal stand-down. Apparently all it takes is some organized rioters, a complicit press, and a political party with zero ethics.

alanc709 said...

Does Howard every say anything that isn't trite and juvenile? Or am I expecting too much?

Yancey Ward said...

There isn't even a burst of new infections anywhere in the US- what you are seeing in a handful of states is the effect of increased tests run. The worse looking state right now is Arizona, but if you examine the cumulative positive rate, it has bound between 10.7% and 8.7% since the first of May, undulating up and down. It is right now 9.6%. On balance, it looks like Arizona is seeing a slight increase in new cases accounting for increased testing, but that could easily be due to a more focused testing regimen- you just stop testing anyone who asks for a test, and direct your resources to where you think they are most needed.

As for India, they probably have no idea how many cases they have- they have run about 8K new cases a day for a while now, but with 1.3 billion people, that is a very low rate of infections as measured.

The notable thing to me is that while infections continue to increase worldwide, the deaths have dropped to a plateau. This suggests that we are getting better at treating the disease in a significant way.

Birkel said...

Some of us were saying this was inevitable.
Others were delusional dipshits and lady parts.

Marty said...

To pick up on a couple of comments, our useless media refuse to report the numbers of people who are actually sick. "Cases" simply refers to those who test positive for the Wuhan virus. The ratio between total cases and total hospitalizations (when you can find that data point) is incredibly small. Additionally, to make sense of that data point we have to know total number of "active cases," i.e., those who are no longer positive. I finally found a source, how trustworthy I cannot say, that indicates that 2% of active cases result in severe and/or life-threatening symptoms. 2%.

Keep that in mind as our stampeders apply scare words like "avalanche," "surge," and, my new favorite, "skyrocketing." Meh.

Mattman26 said...

That the number of infections may be "skyrocketing" (and I would bet the curve does not look all that rocket-like) is all but meaningless. The fact that the Times sub-hed includes that claim, but says nothing about hospitalizations, ICU admissions, or deaths, tells me all I need to know. Manufactured hysteria.

Michael K said...

My wife in Tucson had three tests in a week, all negative, but still ended up in the hospital with pneumonia. The doctors are "sure" she must have COVID but she has had pneumonia before. She'll probably be counted as another case.

Now, if we can get Blue Cross to authorize O2 at home, she can be home today. Until they do, she stays in the hospital on O2. This is our medical world today.

Freeman Hunt said...

Hospitalizations are shooting up here, but I think we're the fastest rising hotspot right now.

Bill Peschel said...

Does Howard every say anything that isn't trite and juvenile? Or am I expecting too much?

A few days ago, when he claimed economic expansion ended in the '70s and he got his ass kicked hard over it with facts, I expected him to stay away for awhile, if only to be ashamed of his knee-jerk opinions. And yet here he is. Fortunately, he can be ignored.

effinayright said...

gilbar said...
Oops forgot to give a reference
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
********

Go here:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/coronavirus/cases-in-india-and-world

and you will see that India's new case rate is climbing rapidly, with about 1/3 arising just within this month.

The US case rate and deaths have begun to decline:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

So you're comparing mangos and tamarinds.

Jim at said...

Of course the cases are increasing. Some of us predicted this a long, long time ago.

The stupid lockdowns didn't stop the virus. They simply postponed it.