"Republicans are genuinely fearful that people will be too thankful if government helps them too much and that the crisis will make the passage of stronger safety-net programs more likely in the future. But if you thought Trump could still win, your best move would be to give the economy the biggest short-term boost possible with massive government spending, then worry about cutting it back later. Doing nothing now, even if you’re planning to promote cuts in a year or two, suggests only that you think the Trump presidency is all but a lost cause."
From "Republicans have already decided Trump is going to lose" by Paul Waldman (WaPo). I've quoted the last 2 paragraphs, which account for the very dubious proposition in the headline.
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202 comments:
1 – 200 of 202 Newer› Newest»If you do too much, it's too much. Never do too much.
The WAPO has been wrong about every aspect of this event and it's owner is profiting massively from the shut down.
It is agenda driven propaganda at every level.
"Reticence" for "reluctance"...Aaargh!
You should always, always take the very good advice of your political enemies.
Better wording would have been, Republicans know that Trump is going to lose.
Everyone knows at this point. It is going to be a dull election cycle, despite Trump's desperate attempts to put on a show. The only issue in question is how pitiful and desperate will he get.
I wasn't asked, Paul, but I've already decided that Trump is going to win. So, there's that.
Like I said, the economy is the new talking point the Democrats and their tools will be pushing.
Ah, the good ol' "Everyone knows Trump has zero chance to win" talking point. Have we somehow time warped back to October 2016?
Fake News: Trump To Lose. The good news is... it's FAKE!
A safety-net after remedying progressing prices, labor arbitrage, environmental arbitrage, globalism, immigration reform, planned parenthood, etc. Order matters.
I remember well a column by Megan McArdle just before the 2016 election on the landslide loss Trump was going to inflict on the GOP.
Reticence and reluctance are NOT synonyms!
Making predictions in May about what will happen in November is a waste of time. Only the really stupid people are doing so.
Yeah, I guess I haven't gotten the word. I think Trump is going to win.
I want to see ARM with eyeballs! What if he is a swivel-eyed lunatic?
I think they used to paint them in on the statues.
The GOPe did not expect DJT to win in 2016, nor did they want him to. They were happy being the minority party putting out campaign ads about what they would do if they were in charge all in order to get the campaign funds flowing to them. If they were actually elected,they settled nicely into the easy chair. Spout a few platitudes on the Sunday talk shows and sponsor a few post office namings. Life was good.
DJT actually not only talked the talk, but walked the walk. That upset the gravy train greatly. GOPe didn't actually want to reduce illegal immigration, they didn't actually want to reduce taxes, and they didn't actually want to reduce trade deficits. Those were items that were trotted out just for campaign ads.
Several of them were part of the coup and many of them bailed out in the 2018 mid-terms because they had no backbone.
If we can prevent massive cheating, DJT will be re-elected.
One of the reasons I think Trump will win is because Slow Joe Biden is:
1. A hair sniffer
2. A pussy grabber
3. Suffering early stage dementia.
4. Fumbles, mumbles and stumbles through speeches.
5. Has a weasel grifter son, who knocked up an Arkansas Stripper
6. Doesn't appeal to a large segment of Bernie Bros, who will stay home.
7. Against fracking
8. A high-tax liberal idiot, who's never held a private sector job or tried a real case.
9. Garners no enthusiasm from Dem voters
10. Way behind Trump on campaign funding.
Shall I continue? The list gets bigger.
Didn't the same bunch of "Republicans" decide that Trump was going to lose in 2016? Some of them even voted for Hillary.
The only issue in question is how pitiful and desperate will ARM get.
FIFY
Where do they find these guys ? How long has Keynes been dead?
Bound to lose — that worked so well for him in ‘16.
So Pelosi packs a bill with pork, and commits a little over a quarter to businesses and persons and that's trump's fault
"your best move would be to give the economy the biggest short-term boost possible with massive government spending,"
Waldman lives in an alternative reality where this is not happening, I guess.
BCARM:
"Republicans know that Trump is going to lose."
That's it. I think you and the rest of the left should rest easy, knowing this one's in the bag.
Truth to be told, I still think it's a 50-50 election because the country is still very divided.
The Dems would have to do a lot more to steal the election in 2020 than they did in 2016 -- and that was plenty, and still didn't work. Now that BHO has stuck his head up, I'm not even worried about Michelle as a potential Dem candidate.
The old rule was: Don't pay attention to the Presidential election until after September. That's still a good rule.
Aha !
Paul Waldman
Washington, D.C.
Opinion writer covering politics
Education: Swarthmore College, BA in Political Science; University of Pennsylvania, PhD in Communication
Another "Communications" leftie.
I remember well a column by Megan McArdle just before the 2016 election on the landslide loss Trump was going to inflict on the GOP.
Yeah, I remember that one too. The election was ovuh - everyone knew that Trump had zero, I repeat zero chance to win - and the only thing worth talking about was what the blessed President Hillary would do next.
@n.n:
A safety-net after remedying progressing prices, labor arbitrage, environmental arbitrage, globalism, immigration reform, planned parenthood, etc. Order matters.
Agree. Getting immigration under control is #1 priority. Republicans needs to dump the free market/small government shtick. We're not going to have a small government, and everybody loves deficits. Republicans can use them to fund tax cuts and military spending, and Democrats can use them to fund entitlements.
Living in a true blue state, Illinois, I basically just do the opposite of what the "leaders" tell me. They said no worries, I bought N95 masks, yeah, this was early Feb. BJ was still on the toilet. They told me to go to the parade, go to Chinatown, I didnt.
I watch people with masks handling money with no gloves and I just laugh at this whole situation. I see people buying lotto tickets all this time, a cash business. Murders up in Chicago, so much for social distancing, and hell, they'll just let them out anyway.
Cutting hair, thats the real crime. Not a problem for Lightfoot(Groot) though.
Faith in Govt, other than national security, not really. With dems in charge, I have no faith in govt whatsoever, in fact I would fear them. I have seen their work and they are some nasty people. And their lemmings scare me more.
Article that isn't being written: Democrats have already decided that Biden is going to win.
Why is that?
This is just as true now as it was in 2016.
Republicans did decide that.
Voters were not consulted until November.
As in 2016, the “Trump is going to lose” wishcasting totally ignores who he’s running against. Like Trump exists in a vacuum. Our his enemies exist in a bubble....
"Doing nothing now, even if you’re planning to promote cuts in a year or two, suggests only that you think the Trump presidency is all but a lost cause."
Even from a pure prog standpoint, that doesn't make sense. You could just as easily argue that doing nothing now suggests only that you think Trump's got this.
Which "Republicans" did he talk to?
Bill Kristol, Jonah Goldberg and Jen Rubin?
Chuck?
And where Hillary was acclaimed (at least according to the media), Biden is acknowledged by pretty much everybody to just be the default. Historically, that’s where the march away from the institutions begins.
"It’s not that there’s no sincere sentiment underneath the Republican reticence to do too much to save the economy."
This is not a dubious proposition, it's unreadable.
Not one mention of the Durham investigation and it's impact on the November election...
Come November, I want video footage of Paul Waldman learning the election results. That will be priceless.
Waldman meant to start his article with "All the Republicans who I know....." Reminds me of Pauline Kael's comment about Nixon.
4 trillion dollar deficit, more than 80,000 dead, 15% unemployment with worse to come, -5% GDP with worse to come.
No one is supporting Trump as this point, they just hate other people. Other, more competent people.
I remember well a column by Megan McArdle just before the 2016 election on the landslide loss Trump was going to inflict on the GOP.
I am always amazed when pundits engage in this kind of dumb rhetoric. Even if you believed it, it's a dumb strategy to state it publicly. You should always hedge just to protect yourself against this type of criticism. It's a common phenomenon that after a surprising or unexpected outcome, people who had "got it right" are looked upon as if they have superior prognostication skills or keener insights. After the Great Recession, people who had "called" it received greater interest from the media and some of them got reinvented as gurus.
We all roll the dice, and sometimes it's a seven and sometimes it's snake eyes.
What an idiot.
You can't "save the economy" without production, which means re-opening workplaces and sending people back to work in them. Large handout checks are utterly worthless without stuff to buy.
That's basic Keynesianism; you goose aggregate demand in order to convince businesses to go into production to meet the demand, which involves hiriing people to work. If they can't because of a lockdown, Keynesian theory itself says that giving people money cannot work to stimulate the economy.
Who are these Republicans that are convinced Trump will lose to Biden in November? To Biden, in November 2020, with an as yet to be named female (likely black) VP. Who other than the above mentioned LLRs Kristol, Goldberg, and Rubin?
This joker is obviously a John Maynard Keynes fan.
Yep. I think Democrat donors should close their wallets and purses because there just is no point. Trump is going to lose in a landslide. Says so right there in the Post. Joe has it in the bag so he really doesn’t need your donations. Nope. Not at all.
ARM, the deficit warrior!
J. Farmer - it could be worse. It could be roulette instead of craps. Odds are awful on roulette compared to craps. Of course the guys who pissed off everyone at craps were the characters who bet on the do not pass line on the come out roll.
That's nothing but a hundred percent pure horseshit no one's laying down for anything are you kidding me we're talking about the power structure of the most powerful Nation that ever existed on the face of the planet no one's giving that up easily.
The Democrats have told us that Joe Biden is the most competent person in America.
He's evaluating the right by considering what he would do in their circumstance. The idea that other people believe differently doesn't enter his mind.
To quote a certain new Press Secretary who quoted the Washington Post:
"Americans get a grip, the flu is bigger than the coronavirus!"
and
"Our brains are causing us to exaggerate the threat of the coronavirus!"
who writes the bills, Pelosi magic circus of misfit toys, crossed metaphors,
No one is supporting Trump as this point, they just hate other people. Other, more competent people
Trump is a kind of tragicomic character. His style and persona play very well during the good times but very poorly during the bad times. There's no one more you want to hear good news from and no one less you want to hear bad news from. I imagine the crisis has weighed heavily on Trump. His desire to do the right thing conflicts with his sense that he is in over his head. It's simply not possible to possess the kind of ego that Trump has without some massive sense of insecurity and inadequacy.
By contrast, Newsom and Cuomo are more psychopathic. They can convey cool, calm level-headedness even when they are in over their heads. Because they never think they're in over their heads. Trump is a lovable conman. Newsom and Cuomo believe their own lies.
Paul Waldman should stick his head in a gas oven before the Democrats ban natural gas. An electric oven would be much too painful.
I am always amazed when pundits engage in this kind of dumb rhetoric. Even if you believed it, it's a dumb strategy to state it publicly. You should always hedge just to protect yourself against this type of criticism.
Whether she believed it or not is not the point. Though I suspect she didn't believe it. The column - along with a lot of similar commentary that came out at the same time - was part of an information op aimed at demoralizing potential Republican voters. All coordinated on some Journolist-style mailing list or chat room.
That she ended up being wrong doesn't really matter. She's still employed in the opinionating business, because she's a team player and pushes the lines that she's supposed to push.
It's always interesting when you hear someone else's description of your thoughts, feelings, and motivations. Sometimes you recognize glimpses of truth in the observation -- even if its distorted like a reflection in a funhouse mirror. While distorted, you can recognize yourself in the description and use it as an aid in introspection.
Other times, there is no ring of truth in the description of your thoughts, feelings and motivations. You cannot fathom how the speaker came up with his or her conception of what's going on inside of you. This is one of those times. Has Paul Waldman ever even met a Republican? His description bears no semblance to an Republican I've ever met, not even the one I see when I look in the mirror.
didn't she support sanders in this last cycle, its a distressing point from where she started in her old blog,
@Sheridan:
J. Farmer - it could be worse. It could be roulette instead of craps. Odds are awful on roulette compared to craps. Of course the guys who pissed off everyone at craps were the characters who bet on the do not pass line on the come out roll.
I can probably count on one hand the amount of times I've played table games. Gambling just does nothing for me.
The comedian Norm Macdonald said that he developed his gambling addiction after a six-figure win at a craps table in Atlantic City. He knew nothing about the game, put down $100, won, and when asked by the croupier asked if he wanted to press it, Norm didn't want to look dumb so he said emphatically what do you think.
Statism, always more statism.
The way I see it BC A Reasonable Man lives in either Colorado or California---and right next door to a "medical" legal marijuana dispensary. He smokes about a bale of ganja then sits down at the keyboard and tells us why everyone knows Trump will lose. The 2010s have been kind to him, and he keeps on trucking down to the dispensary.
As the more sentient posters on this blog have noted, it's still a 50-50 electorate--or more likely a 47-6-47 electorate. And Trump could lose in November. On the day after the Schiff-Storm impeachment failed, things were looking good for The Donald. Now there'll be a blame game re who was "responsible" for the virus, who warned and when, and how it was handled.
Biden will claim he "could have done it better". Will people believe him while he's drooling in his oatmeal? We'll see.
Craps is the best game with the best odds. Play smart you can play all day and all night and only risk losing a couple of hundred bucks enjoy free drinks, it's a party atmosphere lots of people around floating in and out of the game. Just don't make any of those sucker bets
The government can't do shit, but get in the way. They have no money except ours, they have no ideas except ours, they have no effort to give except ours. Government created this mess with nothing but words and threats. Now just get out of the way and stop screwing things up.
beyond wish-casting. Brainwashing.
... and throw in a little projection while youre at it
I love hearing experts tell me that Trump is gonna lose, becuase I want him to win.
Michael K says
"Another "Communications" leftie."
yes, Seriously, we need a revolution in our K-12 for algebra literacy, and all the other necessary disciplines of mind we have abandoned to coddle the girls.
@Automatic_Wing:
That she ended up being wrong doesn't really matter. She's still employed in the opinionating business, because she's a team player and pushes the lines that she's supposed to push.
I agree with you in a sense but not the matter your describe it. Absent strong evidence, I tend to reject explanations of top-down coordination. More often, I think it is best to understand it as an emergent quality when lots of people who share backgrounds, assumptions, and values give their opinions on big subjects.
bill ayers among others already installed the malware in the last 30 years, invisible serf's collar blog identifies the source of these educational templates, guess where?
The outcome of the election is crystal clear.
So basically, if you do what's best for the country, instead of what's best for you politically you have given up?
Have we really reached this point? It was only 50 years ago that Kennedy was telling us to ask not....
@cf:
yes, Seriously, we need a revolution in our K-12 for algebra literacy, and all the other necessary disciplines of mind we have abandoned to coddle the girls.
Rest assured, algebra has not been "abandoned" in the K-12 system. But frankly, it should be. Unless a student is going to pursue a career that requires calculus or statistical theory, it is very unlikely that they will retain much algebraic knowledge for more than a couple of years.
Convoluted. This is what WaPo has come to.
When political commentators resort to mind-reading what their opponents are thinking, it usually means they have lost the ability to consider actual data.
Howard said...
Craps is the best game with the best odds. Play smart you can play all day and all night and only risk losing a couple of hundred bucks enjoy free drinks
True but I would usually slowly lose in craps. When I got down to a stake, I would switch to 21 and build it back up. I never lost at 21 but it was boring. That was back when I was young and poor. Once I could afford to lose, I never won again. We would drive to Vegas at 100 miles an hour about 2 AM, gamble til noon or so, then drive back to LA. That was a long time ago.
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
No one is supporting Trump as this point, they just hate other people. Other, more competent people.
Democrats! Only Democrats can save us now! The same cocksucking Democrats who have rendered most American cities unlivable! Let's have some of them, please!
As the more sentient posters on this blog have noted, it's still a 50-50 electorate--or more likely a 47-6-47 electorate. And Trump could lose in November. On the day after the Schiff-Storm impeachment failed, things were looking good for The Donald. Now there'll be a blame game re who was "responsible" for the virus, who warned and when, and how it was handled.
I agree with this but Durham is coming and boy is he pissed. A flood of indictments, if that really happens, might change the metrics.
Yeah you're right about 21 Doc. If you can count cards that is the best odds.
“Other times, there is no ring of truth in the description of your thoughts, feelings and motivations. You cannot fathom how the speaker came up with his or her conception of what's going on inside of you. This is one of those times. Has Paul Waldman ever even met a Republican? His description bears no semblance to an Republican I've ever met, not even the one I see when I look in the mirror.”
This is exactly how I’ve felt many many times reading the traits that commenters here ascribe to Democrats. I’ve come away thinking where do these so called Democrats live?
I imagine the crisis has weighed heavily on Trump. His desire to do the right thing conflicts with his sense that he is in over his head. It's simply not possible to possess the kind of ego that Trump has without some massive sense of insecurity and inadequacy.
I disagree. Has anyone come back from a deeper hole than Trump? Ice water in his veins.
I am constantly amazed at how much he has done with the shitstorm all around him.
I've spent 40 years in a profession where staying cool in a shitstorm is an incalculable talent. You can't learn it.
Howard said...
we're talking about the power structure of the most powerful Nation that ever existed on the face of the planet no one's giving that up easily.
At some point saving the Senate will become the priority. It can still be saved, thanks in part to the inherent gerrymander, and in part to the preference for divided government. Yet even this won't be easy. A four trillion dollar deficit is not easily ignored by anyone.
It can still be saved, thanks in part to the inherent gerrymander, and in part to the preference for divided government.
ARM is another Constitutional scholar who never figured out the Connecticut Compromise.
Civics died as a class 50 years ago. Keep 'em dumb and they will vote Democrat.
I live in the blue hell of MD, and I've seen exactly one Biden bumper sticker. One.
It's what Putin decides that matters, isn't it?
Even if Trump loses to dirty trick squads and the gaslighting left in media, does the WaPoS really believe that the American citizenry is going to open the portcullis to socialist government? When the democrats tell everyone that has been forced out if work that they will see no property tax reprieve and income taxes skyrocket to bailout the government bureaucrats and the teacher unions cry crocodile tears how does the WaPo think they will respond? Every win the left has had since 1990 has been a temporary reprieve at best. 2008 was erased by the biggest congressional election flip in history two years later after Obama gave us the the left Reich 1.0 and succeeded in destroying the US economy with TARP, ACA , Dodd-frank, and Solyndra and the ethanol hoax. Even locally notice how snivelling chickenshit Evers has suddenly reversed course after seeing how the other midwest governors get their brand of socialist authoritarianism has been rejected by the people and courts (Kentucky just recently). He knows that Scott Walker lost by only a fraction of a percentage point because dead people in Chicago voted for him as is toast then next time round. That is also why he so quickly folded in the FoiA lawsuit by WILL. He does not want to go to court and face the people.
That's just your opinion, man.
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
4 trillion dollar deficit, more than 80,000 dead, 15% unemployment with worse to come, -5% GDP with worse to come.
It's cute when left wingers pretend to care about the deficit. It's good timing getting this criticism in since Dems are going to introduce a bill to spend 3 trillion more, and of course that's on top of the trillions they're already committed to with their campaign plans.
I can just bet we'll see no complaints about budgets after that. But don't worry, we'll remember for you.
Howard said...Craps is the best game with the best odds. Play smart you can play all day and all night and only risk losing a couple of hundred bucks enjoy free
Try Texas hold 'em. The house takes a rake, but your winning depends a lot more on skill than other games.
Russia Collusion Truther Inga: "This is exactly how I’ve felt many many times reading the traits that commenters here ascribe to Democrats."
Democrats are idiots who believed Carter Page was a russian spy and Trump colluded with Russia....and they still do.
I wonder if I am over-ascribing these beliefs to democrats?
The idiot dems are now calling the ChiCom/WHO Wuhan Lab Bat/Pangolin Flu the "European Flu".
Because that makes sense.
Give them time, Drago- they will be calling it Cornhusker Flu before long based on the new meme going around that Nebraska has more new cases than New York on some shit-brained metrics.
"Republicans have already decided Trump is going to lose
Oh, oh, feel the burn.
Joseph Goebbels is alive and well writing under an alias at WaPo.
Howard said...
Craps is the best game with the best odds. Play smart you can play all day and all night and only risk losing a couple of hundred bucks enjoy free drinks, it's a party atmosphere lots of people around floating in and out of the game. Just don't make any of those sucker bets
Depending on the table, optimal play can get the house edge on blackjack lower than that on a craps table. Baccarat can come close to craps, and you get to pretend you're James Bond. Of course the house always has an edge on those games.
The only places where it's possible to make a living in a casino (for a non-employee of the casino, of course) is at the poker table, and in the sportsbook. For somebody who actually knows what they're doing, obviously, not just somebody who has deluded themselves into thinking they know what they're doing.
Or Swedish Flu.
I still like Kung Flu.
So does Carl Douglas.
Yancey Ward: "Give them time, Drago- they will be calling it Cornhusker Flu before long based on the new meme going around that Nebraska has more new cases than New York on some shit-brained metrics."
Its fun watching the lefties ignore the intelligence reports from so many other western nations that clearly demonstrate ARM's Beloved and Heroic Peoples Republic of China ChiComs have been lying every step of the way with full US MSM and democrat support.
Its very useful that has become undeniably clear.
@bagoh20:
The government can't do shit, but get in the way. They have no money except ours, they have no ideas except ours, they have no effort to give except ours.
This might be true in a kind of abstract way, but it really has nothing to do with the way the world actually works. It's like saying there is no society only individuals, which is true but still meaningless. It's like saying there is no biology, there is only chemistry. The "economy" is not a distinct thing that the government can get in or out of the way of. The economy is intricately and intimately interconnected to the political and legal systems.
Cheerleaders are going to cheer, even if their team is losing.
Why such a nasty generalization?
The people most likely to rush out to the places that open are probably the least scrupulous about taking precautions. Realizing that, those who are careful should be even more reluctant to go to these places. That's really unfortunate!
Republicans have already decided Trump is going to lose
Well, maybe the Republican swells in DC have, but, honestly, what they think hasn't counted for much for quite some time.
The Republican electorate, however, is raring to go. They don't hold Trump responsible for the economy crashing. I mean, cripes, who can you hold responsible for a black swan event like a plague? Even the Chinese, who fucked up more than anyone else in the pandemic, could probably only delay the inevitable break out into the rest of the world. Epidemiologists have long warned that we'd have a pandemic outbreak of something sooner or later. Well, here it is.
they will be calling it Cornhusker Flu before long
I'm going with "New York Flu", seeing as how NY played a major role in infecting the eastern half of the country.
How about New World disorder?
ARM wears his chains lightly and eagerly licks the wrists of his masters
@Drago:
Its fun watching the lefties ignore the intelligence reports from so many other western nations that clearly demonstrate ARM's Beloved and Heroic Peoples Republic of China ChiComs have been lying every step of the way with full US MSM and democrat support.
It's fun watching the right complain about the Deep State on the one hand and uncritically accept the conclusions of secret reports on the other. It's almost as if we hype things that confirm our biases and downplay things that refute them.
I am going to be the first person to use the word "Ahriminian" in these blog comments.
I am voting for Trump, if he loses, it will not be my fault, the opposition is whack.
"Ahrimanic"
I see the WaPo is Wish Casting again.
I say complete the circle. We started-out with Obamacare so we should wind-up with Obamacrap. Got the virus? Obamacrap. The unfettered rise of the globalist oligarchs? Obamacrap. Political and bureaucratic corruption and malfeasance? Obamacrap. As Obama himself once said to President XI - "I'll have more flexibility after the next election." Or was that President Medvedev/Putin? Oh well, it's tough sorting-out autocrats. And what did he mean by "flexibility"? Golly, I'll just call it what it is and always will be. Obamacrap.
Rain coming.
J Farmer said
...uncritically accept the conclusions of secret reports ...
Like what?
Sheridan - it's illegal to talk to Russians, unless you're a member of team Obama. But you and I know this.
Blue state flu, Chi-Com Hillary Wuhan virus, The Krugman economic miracle virus.
"It's fun watching the right complain about the Deep State on the one hand and uncritically accept the conclusions of secret reports on the other. It's almost as if we hype things that confirm our biases and downplay things that refute them."
Government documents recently revealed have pretty much confirmed a cabal of Obama friendly careerists in the FBI, DOJ and CIA (pretty much the definition of a "deep state", if you will) colluded to remove Trump from office using a phony Russian collusion counter-intel op.
So, there is no necessary contradiction in citing Government documents that show the CCP lied about the Wuhan virus from the get go. Hell, you don't even need the documents to figure that out. Communists lie about most everything.
@BleachBit-and-Hammers:
...uncritically accept the conclusions of secret reports ...
Like what?
"the intelligence reports from so many other western nations that clearly demonstrate..."
“Paul Waldman (born February 27, 1968) is a liberal / progressive American op-ed columnist and senior writer for The American Prospect, as well as a contributor to The Week and a blogger for the Washington Post's Plum Line blog.”
Simply spreading disinformation.
Worthless.
It’s impossible to see who’s going win the presidential election.
One of the few things you can say accurately is that trumps support has not budged an inch. There’s no sign that people who support Trump are abandoning him. His base is solid.
Another thing you can say is that Joseph Biden does not generate enthusiasm. He is a default choice.
Hauling this far in advance is not of much use, historically. Given the very strange times were living in it’s even less valuable.
Betting markets show the election very close. And that is probably correct
J Farmer - > Still lost... You'll need to feed us more.
Maher malady ftw.
"Secret Reports"
lol
Farmer: "It's fun watching the right complain about the Deep State on the one hand and uncritically accept the conclusions of secret reports on the other. It's almost as if we hype things that confirm our biases and downplay things that refute them."
Oh, that's right.
Critical of the ChiComs, but not of the Israelis.
My mistake. Carry on.
Shorter article: How in the hell can we get Trump to sign off on Pelosi’s boondoggle?
One mustnt be too critical of the ChiComs when Israelis are afoot.....
the Deep State
The "Deep State" is defined by character, not color. Diversity is not helpful.
the intelligence reports from so many other western nations
It depends on the choices. The first choice fielded by Democrats was false. The second choice is credible and will either be confirmed or unwound. Is there a third? Perhaps a spectrum (e.g. 50 shades).
Chicom Consumption
Critical of the ChiComs, but not of the Israelis.
And the Iranians sustaining Obama's legacy in a Middle East war until Trump closed that gate.
Americans are nothing if not monotonic. They are prudent and bold. Adapt.
SGT Ted: "Government documents recently revealed have pretty much confirmed a cabal of Obama friendly careerists in the FBI, DOJ and CIA (pretty much the definition of a "deep state", if you will) colluded to remove Trump from office using a phony Russian collusion counter-intel op."
Farmer has made clear that this sort of thing is, in his opinion, not out of the ordinary and all part of the typical back and forth between opposing political parties and really doesn't rise to the level of consideration in discussions regarding Trump's performance in office during his first term.
I've been watching episodes of the TV show "Stargate Atlantis"and wishing that a Wraith ship would descend on Washington (and every other capital including whatever city the EU meets) and start sucking the life out of the earth's elite masters. It could be televised! That would be better than watching Gorgeous George films! Finally give the MSM something to report except they would be next on the Wraith Menu. Oh, Obamacrap!!
@Drago:
Critical of the ChiComs, but not of the Israelis.
What does that even mean? What is your basis for determining that intelligence reports "clearly demonstrate" something?
@BleachBit-and-Hammers:
J Farmer - > Still lost... You'll need to feed us more.
See above.
This line of thinking might more believable if the Dems had someone more inspiring than Joe Effin Biden. Rabid partisans, yeah they'll vote for him, but you think a regular guy in Florida is going to get all excited about Biden? It's bizarre.
@Drago:
Farmer has made clear that this sort of thing is, in his opinion, not out of the ordinary and all part of the typical back and forth between opposing political parties and really doesn't rise to the level of consideration in discussions regarding Trump's performance in office during his first term.
You would do better to concern yourself with things I actually say rather than your caricatured notion of what you think I believe. If you actually believe that that is an honest summation of what I have "made clear," then you should probably be a more generous or inquisitive reader.
It's almost as if "Democracy dies in darkness" is Wapo's mission statement.
Farmer, Thank you for telling me about the real world. I have no idea what it's like out here. Take your point and reverse it. It expresses the exact amount of wisdom both ways - pedantic mental masturbation. This is not Ikea.
Idiocy. Or at the very least whistling past the graveyard.
Again I'm not a Trump fan, but anyone who thinks he can't win has not been paying attention. His opponent can't hold a thought long enough in his head to make it past his mouth. Said opponent also has this nasty sexual harrasment thing that is becoming more substantial by the day. And no reasonable person actually blames him for the economy.
As much as I'd love to believe his goose is cooked, reality again refuses to cooperate.
Farmer: "You would do better to concern yourself with things I actually say rather than your caricatured notion of what you think I believe."
You have made those points on multiple occasions and I've tended to call it out each time I see it.
Further, you seem to find new and creative ways to find fault with the Israelis quite often.
Tough luck if you don't care to have it pointed out.
Farmer: "If you actually believe that that is an honest summation of what I have "made clear," then you should probably be a more generous or inquisitive reader."
I'm quite content to be as generous or inquisitive a reader and analyst regarding your comments as you with Israeli military history. Case in point, the start of the 1967 war.
It’s six months until the election.
I don’t know who’s going to win. Nobody does.
Nobody knows what the economic and social conditions will be as we get closer to the election.
All punditry seems to be wishful thinking.
@bagoh20:
It expresses the exact amount of wisdom both ways - pedantic mental masturbation. This is not Ikea.
Right. Offering gremlins as an explanation for mechanical failure is just as valid as any other explanation. It isn't pedantic to point out that saying the government needs to "get out of the way" is sloganeering that doesn't mean anything.
It's fun watching the right complain about the Deep State on the one hand and uncritically accept the conclusions of secret reports on the other.
I gave up any discussion or debate with Farmer a while ago. He has a few sources that are single minded. Good luck trying to have any discussion
ARM
The voters do not give one shit about the trillions in debt. One in fifty could tell the number of zeroes. But it is nice to know you believe Biden more competent than Trump. Says a lot about you.
@Drago:
You have made those points on multiple occasions and I've tended to call it out each time I see it.
Those are the points I've made. Those are the points you insist I must have made.
Further, you seem to find new and creative ways to find fault with the Israelis quite often.
I have no concern with the "fault" of Israelis or any other nations for that matter. My concern is with US foreign policy. But your interpretation is interesting. It's less concerned with what I say than why I say it.
The upcoming presidential election is really devolving down into a death battle between Obama and Trump.
I have a friend who works as a contractor in defense weaponry analysis for the U.S. and Israel. He’s usually on the money in predicting where things are going.
He expects indictments against the coup perps. And he expects all hell to break out as a result.
"It’s not that there’s no sincere sentiment underneath the Democrats reticence to do anything that might save the economy. Democrats are genuinely fearful that people will be too thankful if reopening the economy helps them too much and that ending the hysteria-induced crisis will make the acceptance of authoritarian directives less likely in the future.
But if you thought Biden could win your best move would be to give the economy the biggest short-term boost possible by supporting the reopening of all businesses, then worry about restricting them again later with increased health regulations. Doing everything you can to seriously damage the economy now, suggests only that you think the Biden presidency is all but a lost cause without a prolonged economic crisis."
@Michael K:
Good luck trying to have any discussion
By "discussion," you mean agreeing with you. For the life of me, I cannot understand how grown men get their panties in a twist over someone having a different opinion than them. And then insisting that the difference must be the result of a character flaw.
“4 trillion dollar deficit, more than 80,000 dead, 15% unemployment with worse to come, -5% GDP with worse to come.”
So ARM I assume that in early February you felt Trump was a cinch to win in November.
Jim at @ 5:16pm Making predictions in May about what will happen in November is a waste of time. Only the really stupid people are doing so.
This is the most sensible post in the thread. Predicting where America's psyche will be in November is a fools errand at this point. There are way to many variables right now.
So, we’ve got a mess of wild cards to be played out over the next six months.
Will Trump succeed in fighting back against the obvious desire of the Democratic governors to keep the economy in the tank and unemployment as high as possible?
Obama has been exposed as the instigator of the spying and coup against Trump. He’s got no choice now but to enter the battle full force.
Will Barr succeed, not just in bringing indictments against the coup perps, but in winning the public opinion battle to support those indictments?
Will the economy recover quickly and will unemployment return to very low numbers? The market has already regained half its lost value.
Will Biden be the candidate? He’s a terrible candidate.
Farmer: "I have no concern with the "fault" of Israelis or any other nations for that matter. My concern is with US foreign policy. But your interpretation is interesting. It's less concerned with what I say than why I say it."
I am addressing what you said. But when anyone addresses what you say you turn it into a conversation about motivations.
Who knows why.
My money is firmly on Trump.
Sure, it's quite possible for the Democratics to replace Biden.
But Biden cannot win.
It will be tricky business replacing Biden.
His voters might be offended.
The Bernie Bros started off that way.
The coalition for Democratics to win is not straightforward.
Still, Trump does face significant obstacles.
Smug thinks he can tell other people what they can reasonably think about the things he types.
That seems odd.
Once the thoughts you express leave your control, there is nothing you can do to control them.
Silly to try.
Smug tries.
I don't expect indictments against Obama, Rice, Holder, or Clinton. To much of a political hand grenade.
I expect indictments against Comey, Clapper, McCabe, Strozk, etc.
I expect a couple of people are cooperating.
Mexico is hinting about asking about Fast & Furious!
>He expects indictments against the coup perps. And he expects all hell to break out
>as a result.
@Birkel:
Once the thoughts you express leave your control, there is nothing you can do to control them.
Silly to try.
I completely agree with that. But my point is two-fold: (1) misunderstanding and misconstruing are real phenomena. I cannot control that, but I can point out when it happens, (2) why someone says something is irrelevant to whether or not what they say has any validity.
In an amazing coincidence, E.J. Dionne, of the Washington Post, believes the GOP will lose the Senate.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republicans-grow-nervous-about-losing-the-senate-amid-worries-over-trumps-handling-of-the-pandemic/2020/05/09/65691184-915f-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html
I can understand that a voter might look at the number of Chinese Flu deaths by November, and the number of people out of work, and how his/her IRA looks, and say Why the f*ck should I vote for the incumbent? What I don't understand is why anyone would conclude that the thing to do is vote for Biden.
The template is a cookie cutter form, examine the list and youll note that.
@Drago:
But when anyone addresses what you say you turn it into a conversation about motivations.
Who knows why.
You said: "Further, you seem to find new and creative ways to find fault with the Israelis quite often." Even if this were true, what difference does it make? If you recall, our interaction began with me taking issue with your claim that "intelligence reports...clearly demonstrate." Instead of defending that position, you started talking about me.
Who knows why.
Farmer: "misunderstanding and misconstruing are real phenomena. I cannot control that, but I can point out when it happens, "
You are free to point anything you wish at any time but whether or not something is misunderstood or misconstrued is itself a debatable point.
Farmer: "Even if this were true, what difference does it make?"
Well Hillary, I'll tell you: it misrepresents or misconstrues what really happened.
See what I did there?
By "discussion," you mean agreeing with you. For the life of me, I cannot understand how grown men get their panties in a twist over someone having a different opinion than them.
Opinions are like assholes. Everyone has one. Yours seem particularly narrow. No problem. Best ignored.
I'm guessing that the shit just hit the fan. Names have been named.
The trolls will be filling the Althouse airwaves with nonsense.
FYI.....Google spellcheck automatically capitalizes Althouse......so, you got that workin' for ya!!
@Drago:
See what I did there?
Let me see if I can clarify by way of an analogy. If you point out some mendacious behavior on the part of China, and I reply, "You're just Sinophobic," would you consider that a very fruitful exchange? If not, why not?
Farmer: "Let me see if I can clarify by way of an analogy. If you point out some mendacious behavior on the part of China, and I reply, "You're just Sinophobic," would you consider that a very fruitful exchange? If not, why not?"
Not. Analogous.
@Michael K:
Opinions are like assholes. Everyone has one. Yours seem particularly narrow. No problem. Best ignored.
There's a difference between explaining what's wrong with an argument and explaining what's wrong with the person making the argument. Opinions are not valid or invalid on the basis of their width.
Farmer: "There's a difference between explaining what's wrong with an argument and explaining what's wrong with the person making the argument"
I have no idea what, if anything, is wrong with you.
Democracy Dies in Darkness!
We’ve fallen into a pit of shit here.
My complaint against Farmer is none of the above.
It’s that his vanity over complex intellectual argument almost immediately obscures everything and dumps us into a meaningless pit of showy pedantry for his amusement.
@Drago:
Care to explain how bringing up Israel has anything to do with the question, "What is your basis for determining that intelligence reports 'clearly demonstrate' something?"
Lets put it another way, who has provided assistance to us, in this outbreak and who has put up roadblocks
@Shouting Thomas:
It’s that his vanity over complex intellectual argument almost immediately obscures everything and dumps us into a meaningless pit of showy pedantry for his amusement.
Asking people to explain why it is they think what they think isn't obscuring; it's clarifying.
J. Farmer, you remind me of my days as a young TA sitting up all night reading essays by Freshman and Sophomores trying to snow me with endless strings of big words.
Farmer: "Care to explain how bringing up Israel has anything to do with the question, "What is your basis for determining that intelligence reports 'clearly demonstrate' something?"
Care to explain how it is you are so poor at constructing analogies?
Blogger Michael K said...
I've spent 40 years in a profession where staying cool in a shitstorm is an incalculable talent. You can't learn it.
Not taking anything away from you but if you want to hear someone stay REALLY cool in a shitstorm, listen to the cockpit voice recording of USAIR as Capt Sullenberger learns he has no engines over Manhattan. I get more excited buying a sandwich at Wendy's. The air traffic controllers stayed just as calm.
Had either one not stayed calm, it likely would have been a much bigger disaster.
I use it in my workshops to emphasize the need for calmness in the face of management pushing a mechanic to GET THAT &%(((%$$^& MACHINE RUNNING AGAIN RIGHT NOW!!! I just watched it yesterday as I was using it in a video on checklists.
While Sullenberger was trying to fly the plane, Co-pilot Jeffery Skiles pulled out a paper checklist and started going through emergency engine restart. A paper checklist because he had no time to take a chance on getting it wrong doing it by memory in the 90 seconds before they watered.
https://youtu.be/5S5hRRio-E8
If youo have not seen the NTSB animation, you owe it to yourself to watch.
John Henry
Blogger Shouting Thomas said...
he expects all hell to break out as a result.
Pan-demonium?
John Henry
Craps is the best game with the best odds.
Howard is correct. Several years ago I worked a "Vegas Night" charity event as a croupier. I had to study the official Nevada Gaming Commission rule book as well as a nearly worn-out instructional VHS for three evenings straight in order to be able to do even a half-assed job at running the table. Unfortunately, I had a "player" at my table who loudly advised everyone to play the field, which they did, often stacking their chips on top of other bets, table manners that will get you escorted out the door by uniformed security in a real Nevada casino. I learned that, without a pit boss and the intimidation effect of a beefy security agent watching the bettors like a hawk watches a rabbit, a craps table can a Chernobyl-scale disaster area.
The biggest advantage the House enjoys over the bettors in craps is the daunting variety of bets on the table and the pace of a professionally run game, which keeps the over-all House profits craps at more than 10%, even though there are betting strategies that narrow the House to as little as 2%. Of course, to enjoy those nearly even odds a bettor needs patience and the gumption to ride out the inevitable streaks of losing rolls, which most people are either too chicken or too drunk to endure.
Personally, I consider the whole casino experience to be obnoxious in the extreme. I confine my betting entirely to the track. At least I know more than the average bettor about racing and can read fairly accurately the equine body language on display in the paddock.
Not taking anything away from you but if you want to hear someone stay REALLY cool in a shitstorm, listen to the cockpit voice recording of USAIR as Capt Sullenberger learns he has no engines over Manhattan. I get more excited buying a sandwich at Wendy's. The air traffic controllers stayed just as calm.
I have read a few transcripts of cockpit voice recorders in crashes where the crew did not survive. At least I was not in danger myself,
For example, read the transcript as this AA plane went down in 2001.
The stabilizer separated from the aircraft and fell into Jamaica Bay, about one mile north of the main wreckage site.
The aircraft pitched downwards after the stabilizer loss. As the pilots struggled to control the aircraft, it went into a flat spin. The resulting aerodynamic loads sheared both engines from the aircraft; they fell several blocks north and east of the main wreckage site, causing minor damage to a gas station and major damage to one home and a boat. The loss of engines cut power to the FDR at 9:16:01, while the cockpit voice recorder (CVR), using an emergency bus, cut off at 9:16:14.8, on impact with the ground. At 9:16:04, the stall warning sounded on the CVR.[4]:195 The last recorded words were Molin saying, "What the hell are we into, we're stuck in it" (9:16:07) with States replying, "Get out of it, get out of it."[9][10] The aircraft slammed into the ground at Newport Avenue and Beach 131st Street.[4]:48–50
When I worked at Douglas, a plane went down on a test flight. The guys all said goodby to their families as they went down.
When I worked at Douglas...
McDonnell-Douglas or CLT?
Keeping your cool in a desperate fight is how you win. When the other guys get afraid first you can see it in their eyes. One Man famous for exactly doing that was U. S. Grant. Trump has that talent too and he is smarter than Grant. Ask the ChiComs.
Trump will roll to victory easily.
@Drago:
Care to explain how it is you are so poor at constructing analogies?
Thank you for proving my point. I've asked you why you made a specific claim, and you absolutely refuse to answer it.
Farmer: " I've asked you why you made a specific claim, and you absolutely refuse to answer it."
Care to link to my absolute refusal to answer?
@Shouting Thomas:
J. Farmer, you remind me of my days as a young TA sitting up all night reading essays by Freshman and Sophomores trying to snow me with endless strings of big words.
Sweet of you to say so. You're free to apply any adjective of your choosing to me. I come here to read what people think about things and to say what I think about them. The character behind the thinking is not something I try to involve myself with.
I think everyone will be surprised how fast the red states economy comes back.
I expect massive deregulation and other structural changes that will help employment,
And I expect Trump is going to take out a Democratic Senator or two,
If Trump can peal away more of the Black vote, election will be seismic.
@Drago:
Care to link to my absolute refusal to answer?
Prove something doesn't exist? ;)
I'll retract "absolutely refuse to answer it" and replace it with "haven't answered it."
Farmer: "Prove something doesn't exist? ;)"
Exactly.
Thank you.
Im reminded of the very self affacing way tom wolfe describes chuck yeager in chapter 3 of the right stuff.
Better wording would have been, Republicans know that Trump is going to lose.
So Democrats decided to put up a guy who can't remember his own name to make it a sporting contest? That was nice of you.
Your #2 is not the way people work.
It's stupid of anybody to pretend otherwise.
When you read a great poem, do you not observe subtext?
Or when you look at art?
Should we discount those things because the author or artist did not even understand their own motivations?
You assume too much.
J. Farmer @ 6:13pm,
I tend toward 'emergent property' as an explanation, too--but don't lose sight of the fact that JournoList actually existed.
Asking people to explain why they think a thing might obscure and it might enlighten.
Who can say?
But if a person cannot explain why they know a thing but their predictions are accurate, why would the person who can explain precisely why they believe a thing that holds little value be given greater weight? Why does explication of unimportant things matter? Do you understand the nature of the assumptions you are making, Smug?
Twisted minds at the WaPo.
@Birkel:
I am just going to reply to what you wrote generally instead of quoting anything. I take your poetry and art examples, but I think there's a categorical difference between that and being in a dialogue with someone, particularly on a topic of politics or social policy. In general, I prefer to discuss topics we disagree over than ones we agree with. If someone says "I support A" or "I oppose B," I don't think it is out of line, or out of the ordinary, to ask someone why they have that position. I am not saying you have to define it to a metaphysical certitude. But it's not asking too much to ask someone what assumptions and thoughts led them to a conclusion.
If someone comments here about US-China policy, for example, and I have a different view, I will write that. If that person then responds with some judgment about my character or my ability or my knowledge or my motives, I don't consider that a useful exchange. I much prefer to talk about the issue than about each other.
"But if you thought Trump could still win, your best move would be to give the economy the biggest short-term boost possible with massive government spending, then worry about cutting it back later."
-- If only that had *ever worked in the history of the United States ever,* it would be a good idea. Sure, maybe war spending has occasionally gone down after the war was over, but generally, once a bill is created, it exists forever. Maybe if it is a terrific failure of historic proportions, like the stimulus or Cash for Clunkers, you can keep it at bay, but since both of those were failures (and the stimulus was a failure by the very metrics that were used to promote it, mind you, with the economy doing worse under the stimulus than was predicted *without* a stimulus), but, "It'll be a giant failure with decades-long consequences, so go ahead and do it to prove you love me," is a terrible argument.
"Better wording would have been, Republicans know that Trump is going to lose.
Everyone knows at this point."
-- We all knew he was going to lose on election day in 2016 as well. Hell, Clinton even popped champagne in the morning we so knew he was going to lose. (Honestly, I think the only people who thought Trump might win were Mick and Trump himself.)
To all sure Trump will lose, my question simply is to whom?
Waldman, a fat slob from the Washington ComPost. Why print this nonsense?
I get through the comments a lot faster these days. It doesn't takelong to sort them:
Real comment
Real comment
Pissy comment about someone
real comment
Pissy reply
Pissy reply
pissy reply
real comment
Pissy
Pissy
Pissy
It doesn't take long to find the main actors in the play,"I know what you are, now what am I?" So I skip them. Today was a classic example.
To all sure Trump will lose, my question simply is to whom?
Exactly. The old adage, "You can't beat somebody with nobody" has never been more accurate. But to the WaPo crowd, the notion that Trump is Worse Than Hitler (tm) is sacrosanct, so anybody should be able to beat him. (Well, except Hillary.)
Politics is such a funhouse. I don't mean it's fun. It's filled with so many distorting mirrors that it's hard to know what's real and what isn't. The party in office wants things to be good. The party out of office wants things to be bad. But can one really reduce the whole of what one side or the other wants to the desire to be reelected? Isn't there some concern with the realities underneath all the spin?
I'd say that the desire to stay in office or to get back into office affects which facts we examine and give weight to, but it doesn't outweigh the need for facts. In this case, there really are significant "alternative facts" that people pick and choose from in a process that's affected by their ideologies and their desire to keep or regain power, but that can't simply be reduced to those desires.
You should at least consider my main thesis: your assumptions.
To avoid that subject is why you remain Smug.
give the economy the biggest short-term boost possible with massive government spending
This is nonsensical in relation to current events. The only people spending money right now is the government. For example, Harris County (TX) spent $17 million to build a medical overflow facility that wasn't used. How is this massive government expenditure helping the economy? The problem with the economy is personal and commercial expenditures are down, because the government is putting into question whether individuals or business will be able to earn an income in the coming weeks or months.
"ARM wears his chains lightly and eagerly licks the wrists of his masters."
That's pretty much SOP for "liberal" State-fellators.
"...But if you thought Trump could still win...", truly amazing propaganda statement from an imbecile writer - not even entertaining. His prediction in May is like the Weather man predicting it will be hot, cold, snowing, raining, etc. Having a job and being wrong so many times is a great 'Gig'.
Ah! The WaPoo strikes! (out. Again.)
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