Sweden has had 27% "excess deaths," while Britain has had 67% (the worst in Europe). But maybe Sweden shouldn't be compared to Britain. Italy, Spain, Belgium, and France have all also done worse than Swedent, but Sweden is worse than the other Scandinavian countries. Denmark has 6% excess deaths, Norway 5%, and Finland 0%. (What's the U.S. percentage? I don't think the article says.)
Swedish officials chose not to implement a nationwide lockdown, trusting that people would do their part to stay safe. Schools, restaurants, gyms and bars remained open, with social distancing rules enforced, while gatherings were restricted to 50 people....You can't really ask what if we had done that, because we're Americans, and we would have done things our way if the government had left us to make our own choices about going out and about and getting close to other people in the workplace and the schools. And we'd have been doing it within the physical conditions of our country:
“Once you get into a lockdown, it’s difficult to get out of it,” Sweden’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, said. “How do you reopen? When?”
Instead of imposing strict lockdowns, public health officials said that Swedes could be relied on to go out less and follow sanitation guidelines. That proved to be true: As a whole, Swedes visited restaurants, retail shops and other recreation spots almost as little as residents of neighboring countries, according to Google mobility figures....
Sweden’s low density overall and high share of single-person households — factors it shares with its Scandinavian neighbors — set it apart from other Western European countries. In Italy, the virus tore through multigenerational households, where it easily spread from young people to their older relatives.So Sweden performed an experiment, and we can look at the results, and it's a challenge to analyze the results and not come up with the answer that you want — either we should have done that too or it would never have worked here. There's also the compromise position: We should have used the Swedish approach in the sparsely populated parts of the country and the mandatory lockdown in the dense places — New York, Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia, etc.
And although Sweden is not a particularly young country in comparison with its Western European peers, it has a high life expectancy and low levels of chronic diseases, like diabetes and obesity, that make the virus more lethal.
And what about that difference in "chronic diseases, like diabetes and obesity"? I see that 13% of the Swedish population is obese and 40% of Americans are obese — the worst in the world [ADDED: or the worst in the set of countries the NYT chose to compare in this article].
People who are obese know they are obese. They could be given the advice to do more self-isolation, but if it's 40% of us, what can we do? Can the workplaces and schools remain open with 40% of them advised to stay home? Actually, that's a way to do social distancing: You have only 60% occupancy of these spaces — distance created. Keep places open but expect the obese to stay home. It's pretty awkward to give that advice, though. So much easier to tell everyone to stay home. Except the part where the economy crashes and we're all plunged into a depression.
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88 comments:
There's obese (BMI > 30) and obese-obese (BMI > 40). For a 5 ft 10 in man, obese is 209 lbs (not really that fat), while obese-obese is 279. I'm sure we lead the world in both categories, but I'd like to see the data on how dangerous it is to have a BMI of 30 vs. 40. Because the fraction of the population with a very high BMI is going to be much lower than 40%.
"People who are obese know they are obese."
In all the "information" being provided by "experts" one relevant missing statistic is how obese is dangerously obese when it comes to the virus?
We've never even got our heads around the whole BMI thing before the virus was a glint in the eye of the Wuhan Lab.
You are correct in that you cannot compare the US with Sweden. Our populace is different, not the least of which is our density in some cities, and our lack of...decorum among a large sector of the populace. That is, people are very independent in the US. They will do what they want, when they want, without regard to how it might affect others. I'm fine with people doing what they want, when they want. But I draw the line on infringing on my rights to live for my own sake. That said...
We'll know if Sweden did the right thing in a few years. It's hard to tell at this point, when we're all still in the middle of this thing. My gut, based on reading a number of negative and positive stories about Sweden, is that on the whole, they'll come out of this better, and more quickly, than the rest of the Western world. They are already still in business. We're talking about a 4th bailout, using fake dollars that have less value with each printing, while on the streets, businesses are either closed for good, going to have to close, or going to have to get used to getting by on about 40%-60% less revenue that the previous norms. (those previous numbers are what allowed the businesses to survive. Most will not survive on 40% of previous sales.)
Not sure if they'll be interviewing Fauci and Rick Bright when we're seeing news videos of steady streams of people losing their livelihoods, and lines of people on the streets waiting for some sort of government hand-outs.
Althouse, "We should have used the Swedish approach in the sparsely populated parts of the country and the mandatory lockdown in the dense places — New York, Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia, etc."
Did the NYT offer that? Did politicians offer that? NO.
So, Cherry County, Nebraska (which is bigger than the entire state of CT) is treated the same as the actual state of CT.
I blame the Fake News, health bureaucrats and cowardly governors (including Nebraska's.)
Given the amount of variation place to place, I wouldn't take any of these speculations too seriously. In the area where I live we are running about 6 deaths/million, which beats the heck out of Sweden's 247 deaths/million.
Obesity is a co-morbidity usually listed after the primary condition of being older than 60. The excess death rate has been mentioned before as a good way to analyze the WuFlu after the fact. I question the precision in the article simply because normal deaths are not even distributed and YTD rates may vary year to year. But accepting 7% for Sweden and 6% for Norway is not really informative. With a US-like lockdown Norway might be primed for second wave in the Fall that will increase their excess death rate. Sweden, having chose to adopt herd immunity in this phase may have very few additional deaths and end up with a lower EDR by year end. It’s rather premature for this type of article. A compassionate Press might want to focus on the economic hardship Americans are enduring but our Media does not.
I think a lot of what we've done is tiptoe around telling people that they are obese and that's dangerous. That's not who we are any more. We are body positive.
Funny how the article disregards comparisons to Britain, France, Belgium, et al and wants only to compare Sweden to other Scaninavian countries. I think it's called stacking the deck. Or maybe we should just compare the U.S. to Canada and Mexico.
As to your comment on excess deaths in the U.S., I've had great difficulty finding that number. Maybe someone here can help.
It's very difficult to make true apples to apples comparisons. As a result, nearly all efforts are fatally contaminated by confirmation bias--the desire to get a result that confirms the person's politics and/or preferences. In the US, we struggle to tell fat people that they're unhealthy. How could we possibly tell them to stay home when their thin neighbors are out and about?
This pandemic is having me gain weight, since my normal ways of working out are gone. I go out to walk more, but I find myself eating more and not exercising as vigorously at home as I would at a studio or gym. I also must have moved around more at work during the day, at home I don't have to ever get up. That said, I do a lot more push ups and pull ups than I normally do, and I feel like I've gained some strength.
I've got to come up with a new system to drop the weight back down.
Barry Dauphin said...
Analyzing results in the middle of an experiment is interesting but often misleading. The experiment has a long way to go. Let's see what the realists are a year from now.
Yep. A key to determining whether the Swedish experiment is successful is what happens when their neighbors (with their currently superior fatality numbers) get a second wave.
There's also the compromise position: We should have used the Swedish approach in the sparsely populated parts of the country and the mandatory lockdown in the dense places — New York, Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia, etc.
I like it! A bit of common sense trickling down from the ivory tower:)
Analyzing results in the middle of an experiment is interesting but often misleading. The experiment has a long way to go. Let's see what the results are a year from now.
Insightful. But there are 10 Pacific Island countries with more obesity than the US. Obesity is also supposedly common in the Middle East, which came as a surprise. Mexico is a wild card. It's been said that Mexicans are about as obese as Americans, while other surveys put them further down the list, closer to Canadians and Australians.
I am relieved to find out that when this thing started I was obese but not obese-obese.
Lockdown may have pushed me over the borderline.
According to BMI most NFL running backs are obese.
Analyzing results in the middle of an experiment is interesting but often misleading. The experiment has a long way to go. Let's see what the results are a year from now.
So the Big Picture is that our media seems incapable of providing timely, useful, informative, fact-based, on-the-record information that helps the People understand and react to the WuFlu with confidence and calm. Where is the “stay calm and carry on” for this crisis? I don’t want to be shocked, infuriated or confused by the News. I want to be informed. Helpful info is empowering. Useless data is exasperating. We are poorly served by our IT.
On the other hand, that hot babe Lilly is back making commercials for ATT so there is something to appreciate.
If you are afraid, and there are many, please stay home and allow the rest of us to more easily navigate the world while keeping our distance.
What are the mental issues created by trying to maintain a high level of fear for a prolonged period?
Least obese country: Vietnam. I could say that's why they beat us, but we weren't so fat back then.
It wouldn't surprise me to find out that the Swedish approach ends up being neither more nor less effective than the approaches of other countries. Maybe in the final analysis there are two choices:
1. Do relatively little, get whacked by the virus, pick up the pieces, and go on.
2. Do a lot, delay getting whacked by the virus until you've broken your country, then get whacked by the virus, pick up the pieces, and go on.
Great interview here with Stanford professor of medicine Jay Bhattacharya who just completed an epidemiological study of Major League Baseball's 15,000 employees (not players, but staff.)
Best place to start is around minute 33.
His conclusions:
Virus can't be stopped. Lockdowns are worthless, except to protect high-risk groups, i.e. those in nursing homes.
Children have not been shown to transmit the virus to adults (or at least to their parents); therefore, closing schools and camps makes no difference and is probably harmful.
The actual number of Americans who have had the virus is actually very small. Very. That's based on his MLB study.
May never be a vaccine. There is no vaccine for any other coronavirus.
Also, he doesn't get into it, but it's also becoming clear that masking is a dubious behavior.
So Althouse, what you're saying is, political correctness will destroy the greatest economy the world has ever seen. Fantastic.
The one thing comparison of the different approaches and regimes has illuminated is the lack of any consistent outcome or trend. The lack of which tells me the shutdown approach is irrelevant to the spread and severity of the virus.
They could be given the advice to do more self-isolation, but if it's 40% of us, what can we do? Can the workplaces and schools remain open with 40% of them advised to stay home? Actually, that's a way to do social distancing: You have only 60% occupancy of these spaces — distance created. Keep places open but expect the obese to stay home. It's pretty awkward to give that advice, though. So much easier to tell everyone to stay home. Except the part where the economy crashes and we're all plunged into a depression.
60% occupancy would kill many of those businesses anyways. And 40% means that everyone is going to have regular contact with someone who is at risk, and thus will end up needing to restrict their behaviors in order to avoid infection.
"Excess deaths" is a problematic statistic. Figuring out how many people died that wouldn't have otherwise is very difficult.
Also many of those in the "excess" category were already very vulnerable, and were going to die soon from a compound of causes. So Sweden's 27% excess death rate may just mean that many people died who would otherwise have died later this year or next, and thus Sweden's overall death rate will flatten over the next two years.
I see that 13% of the Swedish population is obese and 40% of Americans are obese — the worst in the world.
Where do you see that? The NYT?
There are a bunch of countries with more fat people; and it's actually US 36.2% vs SE 20.6%
It's asinine to compare countries to countries. There are too many variables. Those on one side choose Sweden (ironically, in some ways) as a comparator, and those on the other like to trot out South Korea. We're neither.
Althouse “We should have used the Swedish approach in the sparsely populated parts of the country and the mandatory lockdown in the dense places — New York, Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia, etc.”
No shit. The one size fits all approach preferred by our fascist leaders was asinine from the outset. Stunningly stupid. Should have had county by county decisions where leadership would have been visible and accountable. Now lots of counties would have behaved stupidly. But they could be ousted in short order.
There's a rule of thumb for stopping distance to allow when driving - 1 car length for every 10MPH. Maybe we could use 1FT for every 30LBS for social distancing.
Can we find a country where "comment moderation" is not enabled for comparison?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Fat people are often stupid too. Exhibit A - Jerry Nadler.
"Where do you see that? The NYT? There are a bunch of countries with more fat people; and it's actually US 36.2% vs SE 20.6%"
It's in the linked article, but maybe the graph is limited to the countries that matter to the NYT (for purposes of comparison).
BTW: suppose wearing a mask is a close question, so that initially the experts thought it was 52/48 against, but now it’s 52/48 in favor — in that case whether an individual wears a mask or not isn’t a big deal, is it?
“Once you get into a lockdown, it’s difficult to get out of it,” Sweden’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, said. “How do you reopen? When?”
The same questions are coming over masks and social distancing, but it seems the American public doesn't want to think about what lies ahead.
I see all these small business owners begging to re-open. Saying how they will enthusiastically comply with any regulations needed to re-open.
Boy, are they in for a rude awakening.
As I said before, the brownshirts are coming to your business, and they aren't going to be leaving for a very long time, if ever. What they are doing in Washington is the tip of the iceberg.
Then, we got Donald Trump telling us he's getting the military ready to roll down the streets of America with a vaccine in tow come fall.
The man has lost his way.
I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that perhaps 99% of fatal cases of covid-19 are among people with really bad comorbidities. The younger cases (younger than age 50) occur to people with compromised immune systems.
If this is the case (and I am just about willing to bet on it), the universal lockdowns have killed people who would have been better served by a system that protected vulnerable populations.
As the real data became available, showing the virus was no where near as deadly as the models predicted, the lock downs became even more harsh and draconian.
Remember when the spring breakers killed grandma and grandpa by having fun of the beach?
Turns out several democrat governor were doing exactly that--in secret.
Meanwhile, further south in Europe, Slovenia has announced an end to the epidemic and reopened its borders. How did they handle coronavirus?
Meanwhile I’m just glad there’s a Slovenian in the White House. We need to keep her there until January 2025.
"As to your comment on excess deaths in the U.S., I've had great difficulty finding that number. Maybe someone here can help."
You can find the data since February 1st here. Simply scroll down. Note that it takes about 3 weeks to a month for a given week's data to be complete.
In the link I provided, I have followed the data regularly- even the week of 4/11 is still changing day to day, but the data for the week of 4/4 seems to be complete now. However, you can used the percentage of "expected mortality" to roughly estimate how complete a week is.
"Keep places open but expect the obese to stay home.
Right. From here on out, avoidable infections of the vulnerable are on them.
"It's pretty awkward to give that advice, though. So much easier to tell everyone to stay home."
This has driven the overreaction all along. It's too "awkward" to tell just old and fat people to stay out of the way.
"Except the part where the economy crashes and we're all plunged into a depression."
Now you tell us. You mean, there were no "real calculations" that the panic would cause disaster?
I just wonder what the number of deaths in Sweden were "immigrants" vs Native Born Swedes. Just another variable. I have read that like here the majority deaths were in nursing homes.
Us Old People are expendable. On the other hand it would have been better to urge (not force) the older population to self quarantine and not shut down the country. But that would have taken common sense.
Re: Paco Wove:
I think in the end the big differentiator is going to come down to: (1) how quickly did the people (not the government!) start taking the virus seriously and adjust behaviour in response, and (2) did those adjustments slow asymptomatic spread (by which I mean did people wear masks).
Lockdown vs no lockdown probably won't make much difference because the places that implemented draconian lockdowns (e.g. New York, France, Italy) did so because they screwed up the early response and didn't change course until it was too late to avoid tens of thousands of deaths. If anything, lockdowns are probably going to be correlated with the worst outcomes. Maybe Sweden will pull in the opposite direction, but when you have New York out there like a black hole of failure and death, the raw outcome numbers on lockdowns are going to look terrible on their face.
Basically, states/countries that have opted for lockdowns have done so because they were out of options -- they missed the window for anything more sophisticated. As a result, lockdowns seems to be negatively correlated with strategies like tracing and isolation of close contacts, which can enable public health authorities to identify and segregate potential asymptomatic spreaders more efficiently than a lockdown.
But critical to that is ordinary people taking the threat seriously and changing behaviour so that the rate of spread comes down. In NYC, the number of cases was doubling every two days at the outset. With that kind of spread, it would be extraordinarily difficult for track and trace to get out ahead of the spread if people are infectious for days before they become symptomatic.
Quarantine works.
Testing == quarantine.
US and EU will not do quarantine like China, Vietnam, Thailand, etc.
Thus herd immunity.
Lockdowns won't stop the flu or the common cold. Which this virus is.
They will flatline your jobs.
Sweden’s curve will go down quicker. So in the end, their death rate will be similar to their neighbors.
There is no vaccine. There will never be a vaccine.
The Swedish model is realistic. The sit around the house until The Experts Create a Vaccine is what cowards do
If the NYT gets anything right half the time, it would surprise me. I get that citing the subversive leftmedia has been a successful formula for this website, but pretending that the Times provides accurate or truthful, or even useful, data on any topic of importance is an exercise in futility. If it did, how could it be found amidst the codswallop?
There are things like the study cited at 8:48 of probable value. The primary purpose of the NYT is indulging left wing fools.
It's all lies. Every word of it, they just made up. Haven't you figured that out yet?
The Swedish model worked out better for the Swedes who didn’t die. If the U.S. had another 90 deaths per million to match the Swedish death rate, that would be another 30,000 deaths on top of what we’ve had. Of course, our deaths if we had followed the Swedish model might have exceeded Sweden’s rate.
But we’re asking the wrong what if questions. What if we had close the borders to the whole world and not just China? What if at the first sign of trouble we had started washing the NYC subway cars and buses every night and between the morning and evening rush (and in other major cities). What if we had given out free face masks to NYC commuters? That might have cost billions but think of the trillions we could have saved.
So much click bait, so little useful information.
that's not an option you're allowed,
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1261285316113154049?s=20
And 40% means that everyone is going to have regular contact with someone who is at risk, and thus will end up needing to restrict their behaviors in order to avoid infection.
This is the problem with all partial lockdowns as well as plans that purport to protect the vulnerable.those vulnerable people have to interact with others who are not isolating. This is true of current full lockdowns too, with essential workers providing for the needs of those who shelter at home. But when you start expanding the pool of people who are out in circulation, the risk for the vulnerable people increases.
“I think in the end the big differentiator is going to come down to: (1) how quickly did the people (not the government!) start taking the virus seriously and adjust behaviour in response, and (2) did those adjustments slow asymptomatic spread (by which I mean did people wear masks).”
Many don’t even believe Covid is a threat. It’s milder than the flu!
“But critical to that is ordinary people taking the threat seriously and changing behaviour so that the rate of spread comes down. In NYC, the number of cases was doubling every two days at the outset. With that kind of spread, it would be extraordinarily difficult for track and trace to get out ahead of the spread if people are infectious for days before they become symptomatic.”
Well, half of the some states in the US are taking the threat seriously by celebrating the end of social distancing and crowding into bars getting drunk.
“But we’re asking the wrong what if questions. What if we had close the borders to the whole world and not just China?”
Yes, Governor Cuomo said their cases of Covid came from Europe, not China.
One thing Sweden didn't do is let some of the most corrupt, power hungry and stupid people in the country make the decisions for everybody else, and that would make me proud to be Swedish.
Inga said...
“But we’re asking the wrong what if questions. What if we had close the borders to the whole world and not just China?”
Yes, Governor Cuomo said their cases of Covid came from Europe, not China.
Governor Cuomo ordered nursing homes to take COVID-19 patients.
He is not a good person and neither are the people that support him.
We need to design our moral panics better. Global Warming was actually a pretty good one, since, as nothing could be done about it in the short ( or any) term, no harm has been done and people are now tired of it. The day care satanic child murderers was pretty bad, but only hurt a few dozen innocent people and left everyone else alone. We need to start worrying about alien abduction again, that doesn't hurt anyone, if they lube the probes. The wuhu panic will cause untold suffering non-wuhu illness and lack of medical care, and third world starvation. The leadership of the world is in the hands of the marching morons.
Avg age of Spanish flu mortality was about 28 years. The stronger the immune system the worse off you were.
Turns out Desantis in FL was way ahead of the NE state Govs on protecting seniors in LTC facilities. There is blood on Cuomod hands.
Newsweek
Verified account @Newsweek
Wisconsin's new coronavirus cases rise as people flock to reopened bars after court overturns stay-at-home order
4:40 AM - 15 May 2020
Inga said...
Many don’t even believe Covid is a threat. It’s milder than the flu!
To people under the age of 50 this is absolutely true. The death rate for them is lower than the flu and obesity is a highly correlated factor.
The flu is much more indiscriminate and deadly to those under 50.
"Yes, Governor Cuomo said their cases of Covid came from Europe, not China."
Then Cuomo is lying, or lying by equivocation, as the virus certainly came to Europe and thus the US from China. He is trying to fool you.
Many don’t even believe Covid is a threat. It’s milder than the flu!
Fact check: TRUE
For many it isn't a threat, and for many, even most, it is milder than the flu. To the point they don't even know they have it.
Ever have the flu and not notice?
Many people don't think, they just repeat things thinking it makes them smarter.
Keep places open but expect the obese to stay home. It's pretty awkward to give that advice, though.
Oh, I think obese people get that advice all the time.
Now imagine African-Americans were more susceptible to the disease.
Would your advice still stand?
Would all the "good" white people stay home in solidarity?
Would #Selma2020 be people NOT marching in the streets?
"Yes, Governor Cuomo said their cases of Covid came from Europe, not China."
If we're playing that game their cases came from other New Yorkers, as that's the most likely proximate source.
Newsweek
Verified account @Newsweek
Wisconsin's new coronavirus cases rise as people flock to reopened bars after court overturns stay-at-home order
Can't be correlated, since the striking down of (not confirmed appointee) Palm's over-reaching order was just a day and a half ago. Covid takes longer than that to show up on newly-infected individuals.
Maybe that rise in cases has to do with the newly-implemented efforts to test everybody and their cow in the state?
Nah, can't be, doesn't feed the narrative.
"You have only 60% occupancy of these spaces — distance created."
If the obese people stay home, you'd have less than 60%.
The last numbers I saw indicated that the US death rate was lower than normal in March mostly due to a reduction in car accidents. For some reason it's really hard to find those numbers.
Here's another data point to look at: total deaths over the year.
Since the Wuhan Virus took away many people with serious health issues, the total increase should be higher than what they were, but not that much higher.
The NYT? I despise, detest, and distrust the NYT. The WaPoo, too.
I see that Yancey at 9:33 already posted the link to the CDC numbers that indicate excess deaths.
A few weeks ago some folks here were using that data to say there were fewer deaths than normal during this Spring and I pointed out that the footnotes stated that the data lagged behind a few weeks.
Now the excess fatalities are showing up. By quick calculation it looks like about 55K during the 5 weeks between 3/28 and 5/1. During the same period they report about 50K Covid deaths.
This is not directly relevant but studies done in the first decade of this century estimated that the median time to death of people in nursing homes was a bit over 5 months and the mean was a bit over 13 months distorted by outliers who lived for many years. Lowest average was for married white men with higher incomes. I came across this while deciding whether to purchase long term care insurance. https://www.geripal.org/2010/08/length-of-stay-in-nursing-homes-at-end.html
Tegnell admitted they blew it regarding nursing homes.
As with others, the gen pop approach should be viewd in light of that.
Unknown, thanks for the link to the MLB study.
Dr Jay Bhattacharya is very easy to listen to. He also holds a PhD in economics, so he can speak with authority on that subject as well as on medical issues.
Very reasonable and informative.
I believe we are all going to get the virus - the social distancing was to give a chance for hospitals not to be overwhelmed. Now that is under control - the only reason to extend the time we will ultimately be exposed is to see if we can get a remedy or a vacine. How fast can that be done?
For Mothers' Day we went to a pig roast hosted by my parents' Tongan caregiver. Those are some big people. I wonder what the death rate for Tongans is. It's hard to social distance when you are that size. You could argue that it's irresponsible to expose my parents like that, but my dad doesn't have much time left. Is it better that he spend the time locked up inside trying to squeeze out a few more days, or is it better to get out and do things he wants to do?
Sanest comments I've heard yet from an official [Elite]. “Once you get into a lockdown, it’s difficult to get out of it,” Sweden’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, said. “How do you reopen? When?”
Yep, we are seeing this "reopen...when.." scenario in real time in every State.
Second guessing decisions is worthless because it's an action of trying to put the 'horse back in the barn' - close to impossible and waste of time. Moreover, the Apples to Apples comparison of Sweden to any other country, including other Scandinavian countries is again an exercise of silliness. Why, well tell us the cost of Sweden's decision in terms of human life versus economic life versus other countries for similar decision? And if you go toward either I can offset anything you say. Like, do we shut down our country for car deaths, cancer deaths, etc. Flu's have been around for a long time and they will never cease. We need to stop thinking that just because we have a 'hammer' not everything looks like a 'nail'.
"Does this pandemic make me look fat? Be honest honey."
Yikes. L.A. Health Director
...she chose poorly
Physician Heal Thyself
“I see that Yancey at 9:33 already posted the link to the CDC numbers that indicate excess deaths.
A few weeks ago some folks here were using that data to say there were fewer deaths than normal during this Spring and I pointed out that the footnotes stated that the data lagged behind a few weeks.
Now the excess fatalities are showing up. By quick calculation it looks like about 55K during the 5 weeks between 3/28 and 5/1. During the same period they report about 50K Covid deaths.”
Yes, exactly. There were those who were trying to say that the CDC was fudging the numbers, while they clearly said their numbers were at least two weeks behind.
There's obese (BMI > 30) and obese-obese (BMI > 40). For a 5 ft 10 in man, obese is 209 lbs (not really that fat), while obese-obese is 279. I'm sure we lead the world in both categories, but I'd like to see the data on how dangerous it is to have a BMI of 30 vs. 40. }}}
I have some data on that. Though the excellent blog Powerline and the daily update on the daily update of Minnesota COVID, I learned today that their data indicates the pertinent co-morbidities are obesity BMI of 40 or over. IOW, morbidly obese. Also, moderate to severe asthma (I really need to know this because my asthma is mild) and some other obvious factors like heart disease. But get this: Minnesota deaths are 98.8% coming from residents of long-term care facilities and those with serious underlying conditions. Think about that! Not just older people, but only those older people in care homes. Only 1.2 percent of deaths are not associated with those not already seriously ill. And then, think about this: why aren't these statistics widely known, and indeed trumpeted as very positive news! Why indeed?
Leora said: studies done in the first decade of this century estimated that the median time to death of people in nursing homes was a bit over 5 months and the mean was a bit over 13 months distorted by outliers who lived for many years. Lowest average was for married white men with higher incomes. I came across this while deciding whether to purchase long term care insurance.}}}
I'd love to know what you have decided vis a vis long-term care. It's a decision that is on the table for us and I just don't know yet.
"Keep places open but expect the obese to stay home. It's pretty awkward to give that advice, though. So much easier to tell everyone to stay home. Except the part where the economy crashes and we're all plunged into a depression."
Heaven forbid we'd want to do anything like lay out the evidence that a diet high in processed carbohydrates leads to metabolic conditions which can lead to complications of infection. Also, be sure not to check vitamin D levels.
“Once you get into a lockdown, it’s difficult to get out of it,” Sweden’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, said. “How do you reopen? When?”
True dat.
Instead of imposing strict lockdowns, public health officials said that Swedes could be relied on to go out less and follow sanitation guidelines. That proved to be true: As a whole, Swedes visited restaurants, retail shops and other recreation spots almost as little as residents of neighboring countries, according to Google mobility figures....
Conformists. That wouldn't work here.
Yes, counterfactuals ("alternate history- what if Prinzip's gun had jammed? What if that What if that Austrian corporal had taken a fatal wound in WWI?) are tough.
Worse than making predictions (yes, about the future!), even, for predictions may eventually be shown to have been wrong.
Counterfactual histories may be a fun game, but, is it not inevitable that this is a "for amusement only" activity from which one will forever be able to conclude anything?
Tense trouble. Not performed, is perfor. Sweden is performing an experiment, and it is ongoing.
So are we, it is just less obvious we are, since most countries are doing largely the same experiment.
Taiwan, S Korea, and NZ did something better, but they have easier borders to close.
Our politicians would order everyone of us to stay home to avoid being accused of fat shaming.
The virus will be gone by the end of May, latest, by end of June.
Inga;
“Many don’t even believe Covid is a threat.”
Please quantify “many”
“Half of the some states”
Please quantify “half of the some states”
Or are you just saying “those who don’t think like me are idiots”?
Or are you just bad with math?
We don't test for the regular flu, so there could indeed be thousands of people who have the regular flu but don't know it. Rough estimates are that possibly over half the people who have the regular flu don't have symptoms.
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