Althouse: "We will be okay."

April 17, 2020

"We will be okay."

Found, today, on a park bench...

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Open thread. Talk about whatever you like.

210 comments:

1 – 200 of 210 Newer› Newest»

Marc in Eugene said...: People here in Eugene leave those painted stones about-- am always delighted to spot one. I don't find the sentiment particularly reassuring-- some of us will die, some of us will suffer, some will flourish, some will be okay-- but truly, at least sometimes, it's the intention, the 'thought', that matters.

I noticed at another Madisonian's blog yesterday evening mention of the painter Salvatore Rosa and his possible self-portrait (myself, I know nothing of Rosa beyond his name) in the National Gallery in London called 'The Philosopher' (ca 1645). Of interest here because in the portrait, the subject is holding a placard on which is written, 'Aut tace aut loquere meliora silentio', be silent, or say something better than silence would be, which reminded me of the famous adage 'better than nothing is a high standard'.; 4/17/20, 8:06 PM
Ralph L said...: Madame Butterfly is the free Met Opera until 6:30 tomorrow. I wish they'd zoom the cameras out more. The soprano is far from 15 and twice as wide.; 4/17/20, 8:10 PM
Ann Althouse said...: "Of interest here because in the portrait, the subject is holding a placard on which is written, 'Aut tace aut loquere meliora silentio', be silent, or say something better than silence would be, which reminded me of the famous adage 'better than nothing is a high standard'."

Ha ha. Thanks!; 4/17/20, 8:10 PM
Rory said...: Coming up on Green Acres: Arnold Ziffel and Cynthia the Basset Hound become star-crossed lovers.; 4/17/20, 8:13 PM
John henry said...: It's official, a BooKafe

I finished reading A Living by Annie Dillard. Nothing to change my opinion from last week. A pretty good read.

I'm a sucker for industrial history and when a couple people mentioned Freedom's Forge by Arthur Herman, I had to check it out. I'm a bit more than a 3rd of the way through. Terrific book.

It is about how unprepared we were in 1937 or so to go to war in Europe. FDR was bound and determined that he would get us in by hook or by crook even though he was one of the very few who thought we had any business in the war. I still don't think it was any of our affair. Or WWI either.

He put Bill Knudsen, formerly President of GM and prior to that head of manufacturing at Ford in charge of the effort to tool up for the war.

Henry Kaiser was a highly successful contractor. He built thousands of miles of roads, Grand Coulee, Bonneville and Hoover dams and a bunch more.

Never did anything industrial but Knudson brought him on to build ships. To do that he had to build shipyards. He did a fantastic job of both.

This book tells the story of how the US tooled up for war, focusing largely on these two.

Very readable and I suspect that it would be of interest to anyone who likes history and biography even though the subject matter seems a bit dry to most.

So what's everyone else reading on this, perhaps the last week of lockin?

John Henry; 4/17/20, 8:14 PM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: Coming up on Green Acres: Arnold Ziffel and Cynthia the Basset Hound become star-crossed lovers.

But what about Drobny?; 4/17/20, 8:17 PM
Openidname said...: OK, rock.; 4/17/20, 8:18 PM
John henry said...: Isn't that stone just a shorter version of Isaiah 41:13?

For I the lord will hold thy right hand, saying unto thee, fear not for I will help thee."; 4/17/20, 8:20 PM
rehajm said...: No armadillos on safari this evening. Deer, a couple whippoorwills, tons of gray squirrels including a rare sighting of what looked to be baby gray squirrels.; 4/17/20, 8:26 PM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: Kings of the Wyld (The Band)
by Nicholas Eames

What if bands of mercenaries were just called 'bands'. And what if they gave themselves names? And what if we make a whole book around the metaphor of a group of tired middle aged guys getting the band back together and going on tour?

Well, frankly, it would be really good.

Clay Cooper is in the city watch in a small out of the way town. Happily married to a smart woman who brings in more money with horses than he does with his peace keeping, he has a wonderful young daughter who makes friends with frogs. He has a dark history, but has finally managed to calm his temper and make peace with himself. Mostly. There are things in his past he would have done differently, or not at all, and they do wear at him some nights.

It's wearing a bit when he comes home one evening following an after work round at the tavern where the younger set wanted to hear stories of the greatest band ever, Saga, stories Cooper would just as soon forget. And then he gets home, and there is Gabriel, Saga's front-man on his doorstep, wanting to get the band together again. It's not the first time. Gabriel is adrift in life, his marriage failed, the money gone and no purpose centering him. But this time is different; it's not some quixotic scheme of lucrative arena appearances or half-baked plans to take real gigs again. This time it's family.

The only good thing to come out of Gabriel's marriage was Rose. And though he discouraged her, she was bound and determined she would be in a mercenary band just like her dad. She even had the natural talent for it, and had built a local following, so when the call came out from the Republic of Castia for mercenaries to turn back the HeartWyld Horde, Rose answered. And when the Horde turned out to be the biggest collection of monsters in living memory, and when all of Castia outside the walls fell, Rose is trapped in the following siege -- if she is alive at all. Help me persuade the others, Gabriel pleads with Cooper. We have to go after Rose.

It's a terrible choice, but an easy one. Rose is almost certainly dead. Cooper has a wife and daughter he loves more than his own life. He sends Gabriel away.

Except:

==

Her eyes fluttered open. "Daddy?"

"Yes, angel?"

"Is Rosie going to be okay?"

==

He goes.

Nothing is easy. Gabriel has pawned his magic sword. The rest of Saga are scattered. One is the King; he's certainly not going to go haring off. Another has good reasons to kill all the rest. None of them are young men, Castia is a thousand miles cross-country, and the HeartWyld is no more friendly to humans than it ever was. And yet: "Is Rosie going to be okay?"

In some ways, this is a Pratchettesque book. In fact, if you think of Clay Cooper as a somewhat more substantial Fred Colon, you won't be too far wrong. Although I believe Eames is a Canadian, Cooper and his mates are very English types, and some of the action is very funny. Some of it. In other places it grabs you by the heart or throat. Think half Spinal Tap, half Conan, half Fafhrd & the Grey Mouser and half Fawlty Towers. I'm sure that there are many music industry jokes I missed, but I got enough, and in the end it's more than a funny book.

Humans are not native to this setting, having been brought to the world by the almost vanished Druins, who were themselves not native. With the fledgling human kingdoms not able to drive back the monsters of the HeartWyld, bands of mercenaries formed, selling their services in a heroic age just now passing, until the last Druin noble makes the monsters probably unkeepable promises, and sets them against Castia (whose hands are not clean, for the usual colonial reasons).

Cooper is the heart of this book, and in the beginning you wonder how he and Saga could tie their own shoes much less be "Kings Of The Wylde", then gradually you begin to understand what he was, what he is, and why that's enough.

Five stars.; 4/17/20, 8:29 PM
Big Mike said...: I hope that whoever made that really will be okay.; 4/17/20, 8:33 PM
Limited blogger said...: Normally a cairn would be multiple stacked rocks, and I don't believe they would be painted.; 4/17/20, 8:33 PM
Ken B said...: John Henry
I own Freedom's Forge on Kindle but have not read it yet.
You would like G Perrett's books on creating the wartime army and air force from a standing start.; 4/17/20, 8:40 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: I am reading the craziest book - it's the Book of Genesis, but illustrated by Robert Crumb.

Crumb, of course, got famous from all his dirty comic books in the 60s & 70s. But when he restrains himself, and focuses, he's quite talented. Example - he's an old jazz afficionado, has an incredible old jazz record collection and has written/drawn some remarkable books about the old jazz legends from 100 years ago.

Anyway, for whatever reason, he tackled the Book of Genesis, kept the pictures PG rated, and faithfully recounted the stories from the Torah.

I'm embarrassed to say this book has filled in many gaps from years of going to church. Perhaps, I've been napping thru the sermons!; 4/17/20, 8:41 PM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: Urban cairns..; 4/17/20, 8:41 PM
J. Farmer said...: So what's everyone else reading on this, perhaps the last week of lockin?

Recently finished Charles Murray's Human Diversity. It was a good read but basically argued for positions I already hold. There wasn't anything too groundbreaking in the sections on gender and race. The section on class was mostly a rehash of The Bell Curve's thesis. Murray does a good job of distilling the current state of knowledge on these topics. Murray is very excited about the potential of polygenic scores. He published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal a couple of months ago making the case. I don't understand the implications enough at this point to have a strong opinion one way or another.

I have long been a fan of Murray's work, but I've never shared his plucky Midwestern optimism. I am decidedly not. My model is the British critic Theodore Dalrymple, who made a career as a prison psychiatrist before becoming a writer.

"The danger of ignoring the neo-pessimists lies in the fact that up to a point they are right. So long as one thinks in short periods it is wise not to be hopeful about the future. Plans for human betterment do normally come unstuck, and the pessimist has many more opportunities of saying ‘I told you so’ than the optimist. By and large the prophets of doom have been righter than those who imagined that a real step forward would be achieved by universal education, female suffrage, the League of Nations, or what not."
-George Orwell, 'As I See It', Tribune 24 Dec 1943; 4/17/20, 8:43 PM
Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...: "We will be okay"

...if we have the stones. And when life gets rocky,
dont let it keep us on the bench.

No moss!; 4/17/20, 8:47 PM
Marc in Eugene said...: Unknown at 8:29 reminded me of a passage in Evelyn Waugh's Brideshead Revisited in which-- and actually I can't remember which way the misunderstanding went-- one of the characters hears someone else talking about a band and thinks he is speaking of a band of musicians when what he meant was a band of brigands (or, as I say, the other way around). I'm fairly sure the one who misunderstands is Lady Marchmain but who the teller of the tale is, eh. Oh, that awful man she employed to be what's his name's, Sebastian's, keeper; Maurice Bowra.; 4/17/20, 8:47 PM
Ken B said...: Farmer
I am more aligned with The Rational Optimist by Ridley, but I do think he underestimates some of the downwards trends in western society. Still, that book gives a good summary of my outlook.; 4/17/20, 8:48 PM
realestateacct said...: I've been reading James Clavell's Asian Sage - 7 books about the interaction of Brits and Americans with Asia. Particularly impressed with "Shogun" and "King Rat." The others so far are page turners about the trading families of Hong Kong. Looking forward to reading the next to last about the Iranian revolution. Clavell was a prisoner of war of the Japanese in Java and Singapore as a young man and had a career in films before he began to write novels during a writers' strike. He wrote the original scripts for "The Fly" and "To Sir with Love."; 4/17/20, 8:49 PM
Big Mike said...: BTW, if someone in Madison is being paid to maintain park benches, then they are overdue to earn their money.; 4/17/20, 8:50 PM
Richard Dolan said...: Seeing similarly painted rocks with the same kind of message along the shore in Brooklyn Bridge Park. Catchy, like the virus, but better.; 4/17/20, 8:51 PM
narciso said...: Didnt know that last part about clavell i picked up noblehouse when hong kong was in the news last winter.; 4/17/20, 8:56 PM
Marc in Eugene said...: Am re-reading W. Sidney Allen's Vox Latina and Vox Graeca (on the pronunciation of classical Latin and Greek) during the Paschal Octave, and Evan Connell's Son of the Morning Star, about the disastrous Custer expedition. The new book is Eleanor Parker's Dragon Lords, about Viking history and legends in England.; 4/17/20, 8:58 PM
Original Mike said...: "So what's everyone else reading on this, perhaps the last week of lockin?"

Geology of the Lake Superior Region (Gene LaBerge). Planning on doing a lot of rock hounding in the UP this summer. May run afoul of Whitmer's brown shirts. Anybody know a good Michigan lawyer?; 4/17/20, 8:58 PM
John henry said...: Blogger Ken B said...

You would like G Perrett's books on creating the wartime army and air force from a standing start.

Got names of the books? Sounds like somethng I might like but I can't find anything by a G Perret on Kindle.

A great book along these lines, though somewhat more focused, is Curtis LeMay's "Superfortress: The Boeing B-29 and American Airpower in WWII"

LeMay was probably more involved in the design, building and use of the B-29 than anyone else. He is also an excellent writer.

After reading that book, I read Barrett Tillman's Bio of LeMay. One of the more interesting generals I've read about.

Five stars to both.

John Henry; 4/17/20, 8:59 PM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: BTW, the 4096 character limit is not only irritating, it's not even right. I worked that review down about 10 different times, all showing < 4096 on my system and still rejected by blogger. I even took the Althouse portal link out to save a few bytes:

Kings of the Wyld (The Band)
by Nicholas Eames; 4/17/20, 9:00 PM
Andrew said...: I've been giving Trump the benefit of the doubt. But his tweets encouraging people to "liberate" certain states is a big mistake. That's crossing a line. He is contradicting himself and his own experts. He is provoking antagonism towards the governors, who have enough problems to deal with. Some of the protesters are blocking traffic - that is as offensive to me as when Antifa does it. He is basically inciting a riot, rather than encouraging people to follow his own declared strategy (a gradual reopening of the economy). I'm disappointed that he isn't rising to the occasion.

If Trump's not careful, he could lose this election even to an empty shell like Biden. If a Perot figure were to arise and run as a viable third party candidate, I think Trump would lose just as Bush senior did. His peculiar governing style has its place and can be surprisingly effective, but not in this crisis. He needs to stop treating the governors as the enemy. If he disagrees with them, he should explain it plainly. Calling on people to liberate their states after he acted like the governors should be deferred to is adding too much fuel to the fire. He is sending mixed signals and creating more chaos.; 4/17/20, 9:01 PM
rhhardin said...: EGBOK Everything's going to be okay Ken Minyard KABC slogan.; 4/17/20, 9:03 PM
narciso said...: this one ?; 4/17/20, 9:05 PM
Inga said...: “We will be okay"

We will! Just don’t lick that stone. 👅; 4/17/20, 9:05 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: I enjoyed "King Rat". I hadn't thought about that book for 40+ years. Maybe I'll rent the movie.; 4/17/20, 9:06 PM
CWJ said...: You know. I'm not saying all of this is unwarranted, but I'm getting more than a whiff of whether deliberate or not, this will work as a dry run for how much the authorities can get away with controlling the people before they kick back.; 4/17/20, 9:06 PM
narciso said...: I read american caesar and it ahaped my opinion about macarthur, since then many biographers have downgraded him, arthur herman is an exception to that.; 4/17/20, 9:06 PM
Mark said...: Faith.; 4/17/20, 9:07 PM
walter said...: Everybody must get stone.; 4/17/20, 9:07 PM
Inga said...: I love that mossy bench. There is beauty on the rocky road to recovery.; 4/17/20, 9:08 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Loved "American Caesar". Great man, great book. Not really like Caesar at all.

By the way, what's happened to the Drudge Report? It's a full throttle panic stricken propaganda machine, now.; 4/17/20, 9:08 PM
John henry said...: Blogger Marc said...

Unknown at 8:29 reminded me of a passage in Evelyn Waugh's Brideshead Revisited in which

I got on a Waugh kick back in the late 80s and tried to read everything he had published. I missed a few but got a lot of them. Not bad but the only 2 that have stuck with me are "A handful of Dust" and "Sword of Honor Trilogy"

Sword really stuck with me. It's one of a dozen or so books that I read over and over. I would bet I've read it more than 20-25 times. I find it incredibly moving for reasons I can't explain. Also still laugh out loud funny in parts and very well written.

John Henry; 4/17/20, 9:08 PM
CWJ said...: Also, we're getting more than a little of the we're all equally at risk vibe as they tried to claim for AIDs when they were trying to save the gay and drug using sub set from the onus of acknowledging that they were uniquely at risk relative to the rest of the population.; 4/17/20, 9:11 PM
Josephbleau said...: I have had a lot of fun over the last two weeks re-reading Rudin's "Introduction to Analysis" I am trying to be disciplined during the crono death and solve all the problems in my own hand. I am half way thru chapter 2. Ruden himself, a Prof of UW-M owned a Frank Loyd Wrong house in Madison. I think it was probably a great place to live, I drove by it once. I am in a stat PhD program now but can't go to class.; 4/17/20, 9:11 PM
John henry said...: Blogger Original Mike said...

Anybody know a good Michigan lawyer?

How about he who must not be named?

That would be fun for all of us to watch. Not so much for you, perhaps.

John Henry; 4/17/20, 9:11 PM
narciso said...: Yes i dont think he had political ambitions really, his concern was about the army and unrest with the people, hence his poor choice with bonus marchers, he was a little too wedded to the phillipines a family legacy, so he thought they would be safe.; 4/17/20, 9:12 PM
Sebastian said...: "We will be okay"

So, worst pandemic ever--millions, wait, no, hundreds of thousands, wait, no, "a number" dead--requiring devastation of the economy and 22 million unemployed, but -- no biggie?; 4/17/20, 9:14 PM
Original Mike said...: You don't really think he's a lawyer, do you John Henry?; 4/17/20, 9:14 PM
William said...: I read Clavell's Shogun some time back. Thick book, but I think I finished it in three or four sittings. The narrative drive is supercharged, and it takes place in a brave, new world that I knew nothing about. Great book.....I'm trying to get through Chernow's Grant. It's the first book I've ever read on kindle. There's something vaguely unsatisfying about reading a book on kindle. I like the mildly sensual experience of turning pages and seeing how far I've gone after I bookmark it at night.....Chernow's bio is an excellent book, but I must say his account of Grant's Civil War battles is far more interesting than the tales of Grant's troubles with his in-laws and parents.....Side note: The book I see most often on the bookshelf behind various pundits on tv is McCullough's Truman.; 4/17/20, 9:14 PM
Narr said...: John henry--

Geoffrey Perret A War To Be Won (WWII USArmy)

Winged Victory (WWII USAAC/USAAF)

Both excellent overviews.

His "Country Made By War" is a survey of US military history that I mean to reread soon.

Helps to have some milhist knowledge and interest, but worthwhile.

Narr
IMHO; 4/17/20, 9:14 PM
narciso said...: You know hugh laurie wrote a novel long before house the gunrunner. When i read it years later it echoed with his voice a sort of spy picaresque.; 4/17/20, 9:14 PM
John henry said...: Thanks, Narciso. That looks like it might be it. Looks interesting in any event.

I downloaded the sample to my pile.

John Henry; 4/17/20, 9:16 PM
narciso said...: correction one wonders if he took one if the characters as inspiration for the night manager.; 4/17/20, 9:19 PM
narciso said...: Ovidcay nay erehay; 4/17/20, 9:21 PM
Sebastian said...: CWJ: "we're getting more than a little of the we're all equally at risk vibe as they tried to claim for AIDs when they were trying to save the gay and drug using sub set from the onus of acknowledging that they were uniquely at risk relative to the rest of the population."

Correct.

And, in that case, too, the we're-all-at-risk, this-is-the-worst-thing-ever propaganda was used to prevent public policy from focusing on the actual risk groups at the outset, the deliberate overinterpretation was used to justify a huge societal expenditure relative to the number of people affected, "science" was abused for political purposes and to promote CYA virtue signaling, and all the misinformation and abuses were flushed down the memory hole right quick.; 4/17/20, 9:22 PM
Rick.T. said...: So why are people in food lines for hours? If you’re not working you should have the Coronavirus unemployment plus. If you have EBT, you should still have it. If you’re lucky enough to be working still...

Same with all the gnashing of teeth about no health insurance. Premiums are heavily subsidized for working people and there’s Medicare and Medicaid.; 4/17/20, 9:22 PM
William said...: I read American Caesar. Maybe MacArthur deserves more credit for the way we occupied Japan--especially when you compare it to our post war occupation of Iraq. He took a lot of flak for being treating all but a few of the Japanese war criminals too gently, but perhaps that light touch helped the Japanese adjust to the occupation....I'm not sure, but I think the Filipinos and the Japanese might have a better opinion of MacArthur than the Americans--or, anyway, the Americans who write history books.; 4/17/20, 9:22 PM
narciso said...: wondered aboutbthe hit in politico; 4/17/20, 9:22 PM
Ken B said...: Winged Victory
There's a war to be won

Both by Perrett.; 4/17/20, 9:22 PM
narciso said...: The control junta was thoroughly defeated, we needed them for the next conflict. Hence they reabilitated ldp founder amd yakuza bigwig kodama,korean administrator (and abe grandfather) kishi and sasagawa.; 4/17/20, 9:26 PM
narciso said...: One series that was initially interesting was barry eislers john rain, but within two or three books he became venonously anti american; 4/17/20, 9:28 PM
Joanne Jacobs said...: A few days ago, I went for a walk and spotted two rocks painted with cheery messages. Perhaps it's replacing rainbow drawings on windows.; 4/17/20, 9:30 PM
John henry said...: Blogger CWJ said...

Also, we're getting more than a little of the we're all equally at risk vibe as they tried to claim for AIDs when they were trying to save the gay and drug using sub set

Yup. Remember when homosexual AIDS was a myth? Remember when it was going to break out massively in the heterosexual (non-drug using) population? Remember when half the population or more of Africa had AIDS and half of them were women?

DANGER! DANGER! DANGER!

It turned out to be a hoax much like the danger we are scammed with on Kung Flu. Same techniques.

People would die of the same horrible African diseases that had been killing them for millenia. Now, since some of the symptoms of some of the diseases were similar to some of the symptoms of some AIDS, people were being diagnosed with AIDS with no testing and no evidence they had HIV or AIDS.

Because HIV testing was difficult for many reasons in Africa, WHO came up with what they called the Bangui definition. WHO defined symptoms of AIDS in Africa as "prolonged fever for a month or more, weight loss of over 10% and prolonged diarrhea". If you had that, you would be diagnosed with AIDS.

When they eventually started testing, they found that a small fraction of the population had AIDS as defined in the west which is Any of about 28 diseases, like tuberculosis PLUS HIV positive.

They are rerunning this scam with Kung Flu. We have 24m deaths reported in the US so far. We may have as little as half of that in actuality.

Bodies = bucks. In Africa if they can freak people out about AIDS. In the US if they can freak us out about Kung Flu.

John Henry; 4/17/20, 9:30 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: So, as I mentioned some nights ago, I have a concern that people who need care for other medical issues will not bother, will be dissuaded by fear, will not want to/be unable to navigate telehealth. Do indeed have invasive squamous cell carcinoma on my arm. Fortunate for me that I pushed until I got seen. How many others, not veterans of the system like I, will not receive care?

We need to stop the madness.

What am I reading? Paul's letter to the Romans--one of my favorites. 80/20 Running. Ian Rankin's latest.; 4/17/20, 9:30 PM
narciso said...: The ones who caught the noose was yamashita, as opposed to the more venomous denizens who were allowed to go free.; 4/17/20, 9:31 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @CWJ,

"Also, we're getting more than a little of the we're all equally at risk vibe as they tried to claim for AIDs when they were trying to save the gay and drug using sub set from the onus of acknowledging that they were uniquely at risk relative to the rest of the population."

Back then, pre-Internet, it was a challenge just to get the CDC data - you had to physically go to the library or write them a letter to get a copy of the reports.

In 1990 or so, Michael Fumento wrote this book, "The Myth of Heterosexual AIDS" which pissed off a ton of people. But basically all he did was scour the CDC reports which detailed by year, in plain english, that 95% of AIDS patients were young gay men or make drug users.

Fauci was knee deep in that stuff too, way back when.; 4/17/20, 9:33 PM
narciso said...: Talk about a tale, pauls travails would fill a miniseries, taylor caldwell tried to provide backstory in the 60s others have attemped most recently jay parini because why not.; 4/17/20, 9:34 PM
John henry said...: Blogger William said...

I'm trying to get through Chernow's Grant.

I've read several of Chernow's books. On Hamilton, Rockefeller, Morgan and perhaps others. I liked them all.

I downloaded the Grant sample and liked it. But then thought, Grant wrote a highly regarded autobiography, let me take a look at that first.

I did and it really hooked me in. Well written and fascinating throughout.

I'll probably read Chernow eventually, but too many other books in my Kindle pile.

John Henry; 4/17/20, 9:36 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Hymns of the Republic.

Honeybee Democracvy--now THAT was fascinating. Bees are strange little beings.; 4/17/20, 9:37 PM
Original Mike said...: Best wishes, Anne.; 4/17/20, 9:37 PM
John henry said...: For those who like WBTS bios, General WT Sherman wrote a 3 volume bio that is pretty good.

John Henry; 4/17/20, 9:37 PM
Michael K said...: Bodies = bucks. In Africa if they can freak people out about AIDS. In the US if they can freak us out about Kung Flu.

It is now becoming clear that these cases being added to the totals of WuFlu deaths with no culture are being added for money.

Last night Senator Dr. Scott Jensen from Minnesota went on The Ingraham Angle to discuss how the AMA is encouraging American doctors to overcount coronavirus deaths across the US.

This was after Dr. Scott Jensen, a Minnesota physician and Republican state senator, told a local station he received a 7-page document coaching him to fill out death certificates with a COVID-19 diagnosis without a lab test to confirm the patient actually had the virus.

Dr. Jensen also disclosed that hospitals are paid more if they list patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis.
And hospitals get paid THREE TIMES AS MUCH if the patient then goes on a ventilator.

There is a lot of money involved, thousands. Maybe millions.; 4/17/20, 9:39 PM
Ken B said...: Honeybee Democracy is quite a good book, highly recommended.
Journey to the Ants by E O Wilson and a guy with a hard name to spell is terrific.; 4/17/20, 9:40 PM
Inga said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/17/20, 9:41 PM
grackle said...: Invitation to poets: Post a poem and allow the readers to experience your unique artistic perspective. Meanwhile here’s my revision of my contribution from last night:

Corona3

Stores with open books

Views, likes, subs
Radiocarbon pubs
it’s all there, splayed
as much as displayed
And sitting on merch
Like a bird on a leaf-less perch

Rogan rode the wave
Don’t eat like a slave
Sleep when you’re tired
Even if you’re wired

Consigned to mere nook
He could kick any crook

Entrepreneur
He got in early
For the hell of it
Started doing long

Interviews with different dwellers
You know, back in the days when
Your Mother made your bed
And you ran in any direction

But only where you were led
They could declare, like obscene tellers,
Anything: ideas,
diverse vulgarities
irregularities
in the Great Matrix
Endorsing bombshells like hot checks
Stamping tattoos on elite necks

Too much collagen, like bogs
Sneaking into scorned pasture
Saw fit to torment many a heifer
Along with not a few hogs

And folks nodded their heads
Finished taking their meds
PowerfulJREing
Kind of, like, agreeing

Going down for mail
Going to outrun Hell
Throw away your waste
Where it can’t be traced; 4/17/20, 9:42 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Can't Hurt Me - David Goggins. That man is an absolute monster. In a good and amazing way.; 4/17/20, 9:43 PM
narciso said...: <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Darwins-Armada-Voyages-Battle Evolution/dp/
0393068145> how to theories become dogma </a>; 4/17/20, 9:44 PM
Inga said...: Food shortages are now hitting rural areas. My sister lives in far western WI and I in SE WI. When I told her that our grocery stores here were out of certain items together or items had to be exchanged for one what was available, she was so surprised. Now she’s seeing it herself in the grocery stores in her county. I think it’s like they just realized they are not insulated from this virus. It eventually is making its way to rural areas and along with it shortages of certain goods.

‘It Really Is the Perfect Storm’: Coronavirus Comes for Rural America. In rural Washington, hospitals are faltering, stores can’t get supplies and people are staying closer to each other than you’d think.; 4/17/20, 9:44 PM
Narr said...: Read Grant himself first! Please, it's faster and more rewarding than Chernow.

Perrett dropped the double t when he dropped his dual citizenship (US/UK) for just American
(I think the Wikipedia entry is wrong, heavens!).

His bios of MacArthur and Ike are good too.

Narr
A favorite for years; 4/17/20, 9:45 PM
CWJ said...: Seems to me Yamashita earned his noose.; 4/17/20, 9:45 PM
Michael K said...: You would like G Perrett's books on creating the wartime army and air force from a standing start.

Got names of the books? Sounds like somethng I might like but I can't find anything by a G Perret on Kindle.

Have you read "Once an Eagle ?

Must read about leadership and the US Army. I may still be on the reading list for the War College, unless the pussies have gotten control.

Chernow's "Grant" is great. For Sherman I recommend Liddell Hart's biography from the 1920s.; 4/17/20, 9:45 PM
Sebastian said...: JH: "Remember when it was going to break out massively in the heterosexual (non-drug using) population?"

Yep. Like the way healthy young people were supposed to suffer now. AIDS from heterosexual kissing = COVID from playing sports.

"It turned out to be a hoax much like the danger we are scammed with on Kung Flu. Same techniques."

Indeed. I remember one renowned epidemiologist telling me at the time that it was the worst viral epidemic ever. His obsession taught me to be forever skeptical of experts in his field.

"people were being diagnosed with AIDS with no testing and no evidence they had HIV or AIDS. "

Cooking of the books has already started on Chinese Lung AIDS as well.

"They are rerunning this scam with Kung Flu"

They being the same sorts of people for the same sorts of reasons, with the same sort of gullible, panicky public.

Of course, we never learned from that debacle, and we won't now. Don't expect any mea culpas from the alarmists.; 4/17/20, 9:46 PM
narciso said...: Sam damon was too uncredentialed for this lot, i imagine myrer was thinking of macarthur for massengale but later iterations like wesley clark come to mind.; 4/17/20, 9:48 PM
John henry said...: Blogger narciso said...

The ones who caught the noose was yamashita,

But what about his gold?

Did the Marco's find it?

Did the CIA find it?

Did the Japanese find it and use it to finance their post war recovery?

Very mysterious.

Cryptonomicon by Neal Stephenson is one of the books I've read 15-20 times and find new stuff every time.

It is about the gold (supposedly) looted by the Japanese and buried in the Philipines. Stephenson proposed using it to finance a cryptocurrency, sort of like bitcoin.

Any thoughts on the Japanese gold, Narciso?

I've read several of Seagraves books, most memorably his book on the Soong sisters (Madame Chiang Kai Chek et al). Somehow I've never gotten around to reading his book about the gold.

John Henry; 4/17/20, 9:49 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Sebastian:

And, in that case, too, the we're-all-at-risk, this-is-the-worst-thing-ever propaganda was used to prevent public policy from focusing on the actual risk groups at the outset, the deliberate overinterpretation was used to justify a huge societal expenditure relative to the number of people affected, "science" was abused for political purposes and to promote CYA virtue signaling, and all the misinformation and abuses were flushed down the memory hole right quick.

Who has said we're all at risk? What was the evidence for the "actual risk groups" that was available in late February? Ioannidis' warnings of overconfidence and premature conclusions are sound. But how do we make decisions with reliable data when we don't have the data?

In Ioannidis' Stat News article, he says: "The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have."

He's right. We don't have that information. So now what?

In terms of data, the phenomenon I see most active is confirmation bias. People have largely formed some general opinion on the whole issue and are now likely to play up findings that support their conclusion and downplay those that don't. The embrace of arguments put forth by Knut Wittkowski and Richard Epstein are two examples.

Lastly, consider the emphasis that has been put on herd immunity. And yet, what is the strong evidence for the human immune response to the virus, in terms of the degree of protection it affords and the length such protect lasts?; 4/17/20, 9:49 PM
Marc in Eugene said...: That 'Sword of Honour' ought to be more highly valued by the critics is my opinion, too. I've always wondered if Anthony Powell's 'Dance to the Music of Time', becoming a 'hit' shortly after the concluding Unconditional Surrender was published didn't deprive 'Sword' of some necessary oxygen.; 4/17/20, 9:51 PM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: I read My Search For Douglas MacArthur in American Heritage magazine many years ago, and find it is now online at their site.

Here's the key bit about possibly the biggest controversy in MacArthur's life:

His relentless pursuit of great-man status puzzled and troubled Dwight D. Eisenhower when he started working for MacArthur in 1932. In Abilene, Kansas, I found in Ike’s diary for 1933 a short essay titled “Great Men,” in which he asked himself if such creatures still existed—and concluded they did not. It seemed to me that here was the first fissure that led eventually to the split between Eisenhower and MacArthur. Ike could never look at MacArthur in the radiant light the general demanded.

That realization, however, only made more puzzling Eisenhower’s attempt to exculpate MacArthur from blame for the rout of the Bonus Army from Washington in July 1932. Even Eisenhower’s most authoritative biographer, Stephen Ambrose, disbelieves Ike’s version and more or less accuses him of lying to protect MacArthur. Every scholarly account of this dismal episode claims stoutly that MacArthur was ordered not to cross the Anacostia Bridge and send his troops into the main Bonus Army camp.

Ike’s unequivocal assertion that MacArthur received no such order was flatly contradicted by the memoirs of MacArthur’s Assistant Chief of Staff, George Van Horn Moseley, and Moseley’s version had never been challenged. I too had long believed—indeed, had written in America in the Twenties —that MacArthur flagrantly defied Hoover’s clear instructions. It came as a shock to discover how wrong I had been.

At the Herbert Hoover Library in West Branch, Iowa, I read the transcript of an interview with Trubee Davison, Hoover’s Assistant Secretary of War for Air. I turned to it hoping to learn more about MacArthur’s problems with the Air Corps but discovered, to my astonishment, that much of it was about the Bonus Army.

The point of the interview was Davison’s encounter with Moseley and the other Assistant Secretary of War, Frederick Payne, the morning after the marchers had been driven out of Washington. They gleefully boasted to him that Hoover had twice tried to order MacArthur not to cross the bridge, but Moseley had made sure the first message never reached MacArthur and had delayed the second one so long that it did not arrive until after the troops had already entered the camp.

In effect Davison and Eisenhower corroborated each other’s stories. Back in Norfolk I found a privately printed memoir by the commander of the troops involved, Brig. Gen. Perry D. Miles. His account tallied perfectly with those offered by Davison and Eisenhower. Here, then, were three unimpeachable witnesses who extricated MacArthur from the hook of History where Moseley had impaled him.; 4/17/20, 9:52 PM
wildswan said...: Polygenic scores attempt to predict behavior - that's the part that makes them a social issue rather than an academic hobby. Moreover, the prediction isn't based on what you yourself have done and are then projected keep on doing. It's based on your ancestors like castes in India which assume that you are the result of your ancestors sins or virtues and it's based on events in your ancestors' past. (For example, they've studied the consequences of living through the 1918 epidemic for the children of those who lived through it.) And then, there will be "interventions" for those for whom the predictions are dire. Statistics will be applied to individuals and "treatment regimes" imposed on a statistical basis. When all is said and done little black kids in the ghetto will be stigmatized and drugged on the basis of this "new" approach by "the experts." These "experts" are in their late twenties or early thirties with a PhD degree in sociology. They've taken courses in statistics and computers and they have attended workshops on how to meld big sociological databases with big genome studies. They have no real idea whether their theories are valid because the technique they are using is no more than ten years old, if that. But they would be willing to apply their theories to children hoping to affect their lives. They would be willing because they are young and fantastically ignorant outside a narrow range of subjects, and heartless, and self-centered, and morally obtuse, and devoid of imagination, and have never existed outside a school of some sort since they were 5 years old. If they allowed to proceed they will affect lives by damaging them since that's what stigmatizing and drugging does.; 4/17/20, 9:52 PM
Big Mike said...: Seems to me Yamashita earned his noose.

Primarily by out-generating MacArthur.; 4/17/20, 9:52 PM
narciso said...: The thinly veiled macnamara manque spent 20 years looking for it, possibly marcos yes i read seagrave on soong (his view concurs with my friends grandfather view on chiang.; 4/17/20, 9:52 PM
wildswan said...: After that tirade I will attempt to get back on the thread track by saying I'm reading Human Diversity by Murray and Social by Nature by Catherine Bliss which is a sociological study of the group of "experts" producing the "expertise"on which "Human Diversity" is based. As i have mentioned this is the new eugenics.; 4/17/20, 9:56 PM
John henry said...: Blogger Michael K said...

Have you read "Once an Eagle ?

Nope. Never heard of it but it is now in my pile. It does look interesting.

This is perhaps the think I love most about Kindle. I don't need to write the book down, remember it when I go to a book store, rummage through a few pages and make a decision to buy or not.

Michael makes a recommendation and less than a minute later I have the actual book, or at least the first part of the book, in my sweaty little hands.

For free.

Not gonna read it right now but it is there when I finish my current reads and
am looking for something else.

John Henry; 4/17/20, 9:57 PM
Big Mike said...: I[t] may still be on the reading list for the War College, unless the pussies have gotten control.

After eight years of Obama how can you doubt it?; 4/17/20, 9:57 PM
narciso said...: I dont neccesarily agree, the phillipines had other sources of funding, notably the foreign aid that was lavished on that country

How long have you had the growth, anne.; 4/17/20, 9:57 PM
Narr said...: Can't we quarantine a thread daily for those who don't want ChiComLungAIDS talk everywhere they look? I don't ask to be spiteful or mean, and it's too late now (in more ways than one).

John henry, search "Lost Gold Of World War II."

Narr
Some folks are still looking.; 4/17/20, 9:57 PM
Josephbleau said...: Gee, what is with the mile long posts to nite? make your statement succinct, then we can afford to read it. Don't mean to demean all you great beautiful folks.; 4/17/20, 9:58 PM
narciso said...: I try, but they keep dragging me back in.

On the other front there is another explanation of why the swiss banks held on to their gold so readily.; 4/17/20, 10:00 PM
Skeptical Voter said...: I've read Freedom's Forge and all three of the Geoffrey Perrett books mentioned above. All are good reads.

I'd also recommend Paul Kennedy's "Engineers of Victory'. It's a slightly different take on the subject--but it also involves industrial/production solutions to problems presented by the war. "How to get convoys across the Atlantic" "How to land on an Enemy Held Shore" "How to Seize Command of the Air". Kennedy focuses on both the way the problems were solved, and the people who solved them.

I suppose that William Knudsen was first and foremost among the "dollar a year" men who came to Washington from private enterprise to get the production juggernaut rolling. His initial approach to his fellow businessmen was interesting. He got a list from the military of the things they needed--everything from guns, tanks, planes, ammunition to mundane things like jerry cans, radios and bandages. He assembled as many businessmen in a room or rooms as he could get (and he got a lot of them) and asked, "Who can make what on this list?" So GIs in WW II (and Viet Nam for that matter) carried and used machine guns made by the Kelvinator refrigerator people---and so it went.; 4/17/20, 10:02 PM
Big Mike said...: Out-GENERALING; 4/17/20, 10:06 PM
J. Farmer said...: @wildswan:

After that tirade I will attempt to get back on the thread track by saying I'm reading Human Diversity by Murray and Social by Nature by Catherine Bliss which is a sociological study of the group of "experts" producing the "expertise"on which "Human Diversity" is based. As i have mentioned this is the new eugenics.

I think it is common sense that we should not be overly-reliant on "experts." But we still run into practical problems. Given the limits of what any individual person can know, how do we effectively evaluate data/arguments and draw our own conclusions? In a democratic society, if a population is supposed to have an opinion on say nuclear power plants, how can they make an informed decision?; 4/17/20, 10:10 PM
John henry said...: Blogger Skeptical Voter said...
I'd also recommend Paul Kennedy's "Engineers of Victory'. It's a slightly different take on the subject--but it also involves industrial/production solutions to problems presented by the war.

Probably why I liked it so much. A very interesting way of looking at the problems.

machine guns made by the Kelvinator refrigerator people---and so it went.

I would not be surprised if we were still using them. I once read a book or long article about the accumulation of supplies for the planned invasion of Japan.

Huge quantities of stuff still stockpiled in the late 90s early 00s.

One thing I remember is that they had something like 500,000 Purple Heart medals made up. Probably by someone like Kelvinator or Singer Sewing Machines. A troop getting a purple heart in Iraq is still getting a medal from that stockpile.

"Thank God for the Atom Bomb" is an essay by by Paul Fussell. He had fought and been seriously wounded in Europe and his unit was scheduled to take part in the invasion of Japan. He talks about his thoughts on hearing about Hiroshima.

Full essay here.

https://www.uio.no/studier/emner/hf/iakh/HIS1300MET/v12/undervisningsmateriale/Fussel%20-%20thank%20god%20for%20the%20atom%20bomb.pdf

The actual line comes from William Manchester's book Goodby Darkness. Manchester had just fought though several weeks of Hell on Okinawa when he heard about the bomb.

After Biak the enemy withdrew to deep caverns. Rooting them out became a bloody business which reached its ultimate horrors in the last months of the war. You think of the lives which would have been lost in an invasion of Japan’s home islands—a staggering number of Americans but millions more of Japanese—and you thank God for the atomic bomb.; 4/17/20, 10:13 PM
narciso said...: Roosevelt wanted a rematch with the junkers, he didnt have enough challenge at home.one wonders what would have happened if he had enlisted kaiser (whose protege waa future cia director mccone) and knudsen from the start to rebuild america.?; 4/17/20, 10:13 PM
ngtrains said...: A number of years ago, Michael Crichton wrote a book - fiction; State of Fear

It deals with three groups who wish to influence policy on a national lever:
politicians, media and attorneys.

Seems like it has a ring of truth today; 4/17/20, 10:15 PM
Kay said...: Bay Area Guy said...
I am reading the craziest book - it's the Book of Genesis, but illustrated by Robert Crumb.

Crumb, of course, got famous from all his dirty comic books in the 60s & 70s. But when he restrains himself, and focuses, he's quite talented. Example - he's an old jazz afficionado, has an incredible old jazz record collection and has written/drawn some remarkable books about the old jazz legends from 100 years ago.

Anyway, for whatever reason, he tackled the Book of Genesis, kept the pictures PG rated, and faithfully recounted the stories from the Torah.

I'm embarrassed to say this book has filled in many gaps from years of going to church. Perhaps, I've been napping thru the sermons!
4/17/20, 8:41 PM

It’s a very good book and I’m fascinated by it as well. Genesis also happens to be my favorite book of the bible. If I recall correctly, though, it’d definitely get an R rather than PG.; 4/17/20, 10:16 PM
narciso said...: I know its kind a pipe dream with the phiolosophical company he was keeping.; 4/17/20, 10:16 PM
J. Farmer said...: The 1995 documentary Crumb is fantastic.; 4/17/20, 10:18 PM
J. Farmer said...: It deals with three groups who wish to influence policy on a national lever:
politicians, media and attorneys.

I’d add business interests and advocacy groups to that list.; 4/17/20, 10:22 PM
narciso said...: Well its about gods creation and mans rebellion, people havent changed much on the second for how many thousands of year since.; 4/17/20, 10:22 PM
bagoh20 said...: I can't take the stone message serious until I see the CV of the author. They should have left it under the rock.; 4/17/20, 10:24 PM
narciso said...: more philosophical; 4/17/20, 10:26 PM
J. Farmer said...: more philosophical

That dreadful union of 60's self-fulfillment and 70's self-centeredness.; 4/17/20, 10:37 PM
narayanan said...: serendipitously

a fanfic from Vorkosiverse >>> murder mystery with designer virus and contact tracing etc.

Completed: 2015-10-25

A curious case of food poisoning; 4/17/20, 10:50 PM
narciso said...: The thing is murray noted the same patterns of behavior were occurring among white working class youths maybe a little slower, so one has to chalk that up to environment, particularly the plan of deindustrialization that occurred starting in the 70s.; 4/17/20, 10:51 PM
J. Farmer said...: Amy Wax describes that phenomenon as the upper class “talking the 60s but living the 50s.”; 4/17/20, 10:54 PM
Josephbleau said...: "Well its about gods creation and mans rebellion, people havent changed much on the second for how many thousands of year since."

You know what? man has not changed since the Greeks of -500 AD. Archimedes of Syracuse to Euler to Godel, there is no evolution of the ugly eating killing mind, there is only evolution of the sublime systematic mind. Each man has an animal mid and a sublime mind.; 4/17/20, 10:58 PM
narciso said...: We seem to focusing on the former over the latter, what passes for science is polemical lobbying of interest groups over evidence. What passes for logic i cant even describe; 4/17/20, 11:11 PM
Joan said...: I’m a science teacher and it bothers me greatly how people lionize SCIENCE!!!1!!

Like all human endeavors, science is far from perfect. It is AT LEAST as beset by politics as every other profession, but realistically, more so, considering where the $ comes from. Most people don’t have any idea that literally everyone doing science has an agenda. I like to think that it would make a difference if they did, but I’m not so sure.; 4/17/20, 11:23 PM
Ken B said...: Farmer
They don’t preach what they practice.
Fits several 30 year olds I know to a T.; 4/17/20, 11:27 PM
Josephbleau said...: so I am now reading also about task force smith in the Korean war. I once had an educational job in Korea, they don't understand mining. And on my off time I went to heartbreak ridge, t bone, pork chop, baldy,and Nevada cities, I asked because I wanted to see what my father in law 1 lt Commander/company A/1Btn/38 infantry rgt 2infdiv saw. The sKors were appreciative that US guys died for freedom.

“Aye! Fight and you may die. Run and you will live, at least awhile. And dying in your beds many years from now, would you be willing to trade all the days from this day to that for one chance, just one chance, to come back here and tell our enemies that they may take our lives but they will never take our FREEDOM!”; 4/17/20, 11:31 PM
narciso said...: Thats why i included darwins armada, which shows how darwin advanced his notions in thr public square over others; 4/17/20, 11:31 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Ken B:

Farmer
They don’t preach what they practice.
Fits several 30 year olds I know to a T.

IT's the cleavages of the culture war. Pat Buchanan's '92 RNC convention speech is as relevant now as it was nearly 30 years ago. It's also why I think the capitalist/socialist dichotomy is not very useful for discussing the issues we face in the contemporary world. Not only have media and academia come down squarely on one side but so have big business interests. The war is likely not to be won through the electoral system. And the other side has pretty much declared its path to victory: America's old stock must die. The straight white male is the new WASP. The derision of "dead European males" in the humanities is another example.; 4/17/20, 11:46 PM
narciso said...: And which part of those institutiond are genuinely free markets, not this crony capitalism, which one of these is for traditional values which is a bulwark against the atate domination over the individual.; 4/17/20, 11:52 PM
J. Farmer said...: There are no “genuinely free markets.” It’s the equivalent “true socialism.” We can talk about it in a theoretical sense, but it doesn’t have much relevance in discussing how the real world operates.; 4/17/20, 11:55 PM
Josephbleau said...: So Mr. Farmer, how do you see it going, and at what rate. I consult in an f100 company where I hear what the experts say, including the cute Kinsey girls from big ten schools.

I predict that by May 15 there will be an embarrassingly low level of cronodeath and governors will try to figure out how they should be reelected since they destroyed billions in wealth; 4/18/20, 12:10 AM
eddie willers said...: Not really like Caesar at all.

Speaking of Caesar, Colleen McCullough's Masters Of Rome series has finally been released for Amazon's Kindle. A thousand pages each of rockem, sockem Roman action from Marius and Sulla to Caesar and Cleopatra.; 4/18/20, 12:20 AM
eddie willers said...: Maybe MacArthur deserves more credit for the way we occupied Japan

I believe you are right. I worked for JVC in Atlanta during the 80s and all the boys from the home islands thought the world of him. In fact, they were surprised there weren't statues of him on every street corner.; 4/18/20, 12:24 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: Sorry I missed tonight's discussion. Lots of good book recommendations. Thanks.

Here in the Bay, we find that in Santa Clara County, perhaps at least 50x or 80x number infected beyond what testing showed. Not surprising. And it isn't as though SC County has a big, beautiful wall around it. Until a role change a year ago, I spent a couple of days every two weeks in SC County.

Clearly, this virus has spread much further than the "experts" said. With far fewer corpses to show for it. Yet, the ratchet tightens.

I have a theory about why that is. When someone who has an unreasonable fear of something--say, venturing to the mall--indulges that fear, her brain tells her, "See? There was something to be worried about." So she then becomes frightened of going to the grocery. And avoids the grocery. And her brain tells her there must have been something to be frightened about. And so on. And thus, an agoraphobic, who won't leave the house, is brought into being.

All these panicked people...locked themselves away (or dictated that we be locked away)...and now their amygdalas are telling them: See? We were right to panic. There must be even MORE to be afraid of. And so we clench even further into the fetal position, even as evidence mounts that we have no reason to curl up in the first place.

A wine merchant told me today that Oakland is requiring masks as of 4/22. I said, "Well, I won't be running in a mask." His reply? "Oh, we'll see about that." Yes, we will. Though actually, the directive doesn't require that one wear a mask when one is alone. @@; 4/18/20, 12:28 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Josephbleau:

So Mr. Farmer, how do you see it going, and at what rate. I consult in an f100 company where I hear what the experts say, including the cute Kinsey girls from big ten schools.

I haven't the slightest idea. There is still too much unknown about the nature of the virus to make confident predictions one way or another. We are not even entirely sure how exactly to define the high risk group, other than the elderly. If we say that the high risk group are the elderly, the obese, and those with comorbidities, that's a pretty sizable chunk of the population. We can't assert herd immunity as a solution until we understand the human immune response to the virus. What role weather plays is not yet well understood.

This is my fundamental issue with Ioannidis' position, which I think is generally sound advice. But if we are to make decisions only on the basis of reliable data, what do we do when reliable data is not available?; 4/18/20, 12:31 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: Well, Mr Farmer, we use our heads.

If the virus is as contagious as the experts say (and as testing in the homeless shelters, SC County, the town in CO) seem to suggest, then it is nowhere near as lethal as the experts fear. Santa Clara county is where many of the Bay Area's Asian population lives. We can presume that the residents of that county had a lot of exposure to native Chinese--and that exposure spread, because the Bay Area is a great big mixing bowl. Yet, the bodies are not piled up in the streets. We never even got close to being overwhelmed in the hospitals. So: contagious but not exceptionally lethal.

What if the virus is deadly? Then it must not be very contagious. Because here in CA, no real lockdown occurred until after 3/17. That is when I got back from a trip to AZ,. There is a 3-week lag between shut-down and expected results from it--so about a week ago. Yet, again, bodies weren't piling up.

To me, this doesn't require a lot of numbers and analysis. It just requires a good hard look around,; 4/18/20, 12:36 AM
Kyjo said...: China reported a 50% increase in the death toll from COVID-19 in Wuhan—not new deaths, mind you, but previously unreported deaths. BBC article here.; 4/18/20, 12:38 AM
Kyjo said...: Anne-I-Am refers to the results of this research (not yet peer-reviewed). Here’s the important bit:

“The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.”; 4/18/20, 12:45 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Anne:

To me, this doesn't require a lot of numbers and analysis. It just requires a good hard look around,

The geographic differences in the virus' presentation are also not well known. There is no reason to believe that whatever conditions explain the California numbers are operative nationwide. There are probably numerous variables at play. Government mandates may be one, but so could voluntary changes in social behavior. Weather conditions have also been proposed. Transmission from travel from China versus transmission from travel from Europe could be another.; 4/18/20, 12:50 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: Kyjo,

Yes. And interestingly, their results favored white women (this makes me roll my eyes; why is my peer group such a bunch of wanh-wanhs?), which would seem to me to overlook those most likely to have been infected--the Chinese who live and work in Santa Clara County.

And as I said, Santa Clara County is just a part of the big mixing bowl that is the Bay Area. Every other Sunday, I run with a group of imbeciles who come from all over the Bay. Including SC County. And my son lives with me in Oaktown, but has worked frequently in the South Bay. IOW, there is a ton of mixing. No reason to think that the entire Bay Area isn't very similar to SC County.

Which means? This Chinese Lab Virus is not nearly as lethal as our elites keep telling us it is.; 4/18/20, 12:51 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Kylo:

Generalizing the results from the Santa Clara study are also hampered by the fact that the participants were not randomly chosen. They were recruited from Facebook. Multiple tests of random groups over time will probably be needed to get more solid data.; 4/18/20, 12:53 AM
PresbyPoet said...: The Library is an essential. Every morning we walk past the closed Santa Clara City library. Dark. All the books in prison. There is a book on hold for me. Supposed to picked up by March 23rd. "The Assault on American Excellence" by Kronman. Now frozen, until our economy thaws, it sits, waiting to be free.

We generally have multiple books being read:

Just Finished S.M. Stirling's third novel in his alternative WWI series, "Shadows of Annihilation". Taft dies, and Roosevelt is elected for a 3rd term in 1912, and a 4th in 1916 while at war with the Hun. A good read.

Have read all 26 of Stirling's novels. His "Novels of the Change" seem strangely relevant today, since they are about civilization crashing when machines stop working, and cities die. What will we do when grocery stores are empty?

James Holland's book "Big Week" about the air battles over Germany in early 1944, provides an interesting perspective from both sides of the battle. There is much more than just the climactic air battle, that cleared the skies of the German air force. It details decisions that gave the allied forces the long range P51, and denied Germany jet fighters, (blame Hitler).

Two other interesting recent reads are "Symphony in C", by Robert Hazen, about the importance of carbon, and "Slime" by Ruth Kassinger about the importance of algae.

Now reading "The science of Rick and Morty". Which is actually an interesting book on real science. Discussions of multiverse theory, the importance of 137, memory, cloning, alien life, dark matter and energy all included. The author, Matt Brady is clearly a student of science, and "Rick and Morty".

Others being read are "Mama's Last Hug" by Frans De Waal, a book about animal emotions and ours. Another, "The trouble with Gravity" by Richard Panek was frustrating when he proved he knew nothing of the Bible in a chapter about gravity in our myths. He has Elijah "out for a walk with his "wife"", when the chariot of fire takes Elijah to heaven. I tend to not trust an author when he makes such a dumb error on page 22, then tries to convince readers he understands gravity.

A Wednesday morning 6AM men's group, that now meets on Zoom, is going thru "The Good and Beautiful Community" by James Smith. This is the 3rd book in a series on discipleship.

Every morning after our morning walk, we read a chapter from the Bible. Currently reading Proverbs. Chapter 11, verse 26 seems to offer some advice for today. "People curse the man who holds his grain for higher prices, but bless the man who sells it to them in their time of need."

Is there nothing new under the sun?; 4/18/20, 12:56 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: J Farmer,

Yes, yes, yes. Many nuances. And the fact is, people are not dropping like flies--despite the fact that this bug seems pretty contagious--whether in NYC or Cali. The at-risk group is very well-characterized, no? And we can't ruin an economy and send many people into worry, depression and despair in order to spare a group of people who are at risk from EVERY respiratory illness that comes down the pike. This is madness.

The original mandate for shutdown was a need to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed. That has clearly been achieved. Even NYC hasn't been pushed beyond capacity. So why the continued ratchet? My previous explanation--that the human brain interprets actions undertaken out of fear to be grounded in reality, and so increases its reactivity. What is needed is logic--cognitive behavioral therapy--to counteract the fear response.

Do you honestly believe you are at risk? Your partner? I think I have *probably* already had the virus, but if not, I am not at all concerned. I may be a sport--underweight, elite athlete, terrific health--but I am also not worried about my friends who are not quite as fit as I.

And my BIL--I am a little worried about him, he is very, very heavy--a pulmonologist/critical care MD--isn't counseling fear and panic. I admit I take a lot of my cues from him (and my own background in medicine/ID/immunology). When HE panics (IF), then I will panic.; 4/18/20, 12:59 AM
Kyjo said...: @Anne, agreed. I’m also in the Bay Area, and work in Santa Clara County.

@Farmer, sure. If anything the prevalence should be higher though, which would still support Anne’s point about low lethality. There have only been 69 deaths in Santa Clara County to date, which would mean a fatality rate of 0.09%–0.14%. That’s on par with seasonal flu. As the prevalence data is from early April, we’d need to see a substantial jump in deaths in the next week to indicate something more deadly than this, at least as far as the Bay Area is concerned.; 4/18/20, 1:01 AM
Josephbleau said...: What will happen is this,

Companies will pay more for skilled people, they won't be duplicated by untermenches. Office functionaries, secretaries, and such will loose their jobs. Office Buildings will be utgefuked. Democrat Cities who have minorities who sell hot dogs to the skilled people will be utgefuked. Minorities who depend on crime will suffer, because victims will not leave their homes.; 4/18/20, 1:03 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: Kyjo,

A fellow Bay Area crazy! I am a pharma rep--until a year ago, covered the Bay Area down to Monterey. Had a role change and now cover the entire state--flying all over. Only the academic centers. Saved from the freaking 880. Thank God. Unless I am going to Stanford, which is fortunately only once a month or so.

This really should not be a point of contention. High prevalence/low lethality and vice versa. it is the nature of viruses. I am puzzling over why the country seized up over this.; 4/18/20, 1:09 AM
Gospace said...: Inga said...
Food shortages are now hitting rural areas.

Uh, what? News Flash! Food shortages have been hitting rural areas from the gitgo. I live in ruralville NY. There's an Aldis 2 towns over. Small town, small volume Aldis. Aldis is a German company run with German efficiency, without regards for much else except efficiency and maximizing profits. When they started being wiped out- they temporarily CLOSED the small volume stores furthest from their warehouses, and concentrated on keeping their larger higher volume stores filled.From a logistics standpoint, it was an absolutely logical decision. A delivery truck can make multiple daily back and forth runs to a store 30 miles from the warehouse. One to a store 120 miles away. Take the trucks serving the further away stores and have them all working on the closer stores, you can keep the closer ones stocked as they sell more merchandise.

The same is true to a lesser extent of all other stores. The further away a store is from the supply depot, the harder it is to keep the store fully supplied. And for independent grocers, yeah, their supply chain is totally disrupted.

It's darn near impossible to find corned beef hash since the hoarding began. And I find that really puzzling. None of the people I've ever been camping with over the years eat the stuff except on camping trips where I insist the Scouts put it on the breakfast menu. It's only in the last week I've been able to find liverwurst on the shelf. Again, how many people eat liverwurst? Who's buying it that didn't used to- and WHY?; 4/18/20, 1:11 AM
Gospace said...: These are the statistics from NY from when I was looking at them earlier, which are as accurate as any others available. Which is to say, not accurate. My 29 year old son spent overnight in a hospital on oxygen. He received his second negative test on Covid19, the previous one taken a week earlier, and the results received the day before his primary care practitioner said- "Have someone drive you to the ER." Not go to, have someone drive you. Before he was discharged, after testing negative for Covid19, flu, and several other things, with x-rays showing clear lungs, the doctor treating him told him he has Covid19, the test shows a high number of false negatives, but they're not allowed to test a third time. Makes me wonder about false positives..

12192 deaths attributed to Covid19. 9273, 76%, in 12 contiguous counties that comprise the NY metropolitan area. Maybe 10% of NY's land area. Erie County is the only other county in triple digits, home of a lot of colleges and Buffalo, a major urban area. My county and 4 adjoining counties have a total of 50, 44 or 88%, from Monroe County, with the major city of Rochester. Yet we're all being subjected to the same rules as NYC.

84.3% of the reported death are over age 60. 84.3% Tells me that if you're over age 60, you should be much more careful. And maybe do some other things.

And, it's a pretty lopsided ratio of male/female deaths. looks like the old NY Times headline "Women and minorities hardest hit" needs to leave out women. But not minorities. No coherent explanation of the male/female imbalance. The greater proportion of minority deaths? Lifestyle. Period. More minorities are obese. More of them smoke. More have other risk factors.

What the statistics are telling us is simple. Outside of major cities, all these precautions are serious overkill. And even in cities, many of these precautions are outright Constitutional violations.; 4/18/20, 1:14 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: Gospace,

Right? And all the flour missing? And yeast? Who are all these people suddenly baking their own bread? When, news flash, bread is easy to buy?

I chalk it up to amateurs. I admit I am a prepper. I have 6 months of meals, batteries, camp lights, first aid (clotting agent, tournequets, bandages, etc, etc), sterno, water filtration... and suddenly, a bunch of people are waking up to the fact that existence is contingent.

Fortunately, this will pass, and they will all fall back to sleep. Then I will buy masks (hadn't thought of that), more isopropyl alcohol, get a supply of antibiotics and some more antivirals...

These people wear my ass out.; 4/18/20, 1:16 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Anne:

Yes, yes, yes. Many nuances.

Well, you shouldn't chastise people for drawing overly broad conclusions from limited data and then turn around and draw overly broad conclusions from limited data. Overly focusing on the mortality rate is a mistake, regardless who indulges in it. As you said, the primary concern was a spike of cases overloading healthcare resources. And that was a legitimate concern given the dearth of information and what we were seeing abroad.

From my perspective, the biggest screw up was the lack of widespread testing capabilities. Without the ability to quickly test and isolate people and with the possibility of long incubation times and the ability to transmit while either asymptomatic or presymptomatic, we don't have many options left for containing community spread.

A novel virus to which there is no human immunity, no known treatments, and no vaccines that is relatively contagious and causes symptoms requiring hospitalization for a subset of those infected is not a frequent occurrence.

The variance in effect among those infected is also not well understood. That is, why develop no symptoms and others develop more serious symptoms. About 20% of the patients who have been hospitalized are under the age of 44. What role underlying conditions has played in that isn't known yet. And even if you don't require hospitalization, it is possible to be seriously debilitated by the disease for several weeks. The long-term impacts the illness has on the body are also not known. Lastly, becoming ill is not the only concern given that I would have the potential to pass the disease to someone else.

For what it's worth, I am not advocating mass lockdowns. I don't have an answer. But I do think that a temporary, mass social distancing campaign to "flatten the curve" was a legitimate strategy given the potential threat and the number of unknowns.; 4/18/20, 1:21 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Gospace:

What the statistics are telling us is simple. Outside of major cities, all these precautions are serious overkill. And even in cities, many of these precautions are outright Constitutional violations.

But you are using data from now to criticize a decision made before such data was available. Even now, we are not entirely sure what explains the geographic variance and the various clusters we are seeing. Without the ability to do mass testing, there wasn't anyway to know with any degree of certainty what the geographic distribution of cases would be.; 4/18/20, 1:28 AM
mandrewa said...: J. Farmer said, "In terms of data, the phenomenon I see most active is confirmation bias."

But that's always true. And it seems to be true for everyone.

But still not everyone does this to the same degree. There are always some that are better at getting around their own confirmation bias.; 4/18/20, 1:32 AM
Kyjo said...: @Anne, I’ve been in the Bay going on 6 years. I love the weather, the region has so much natural beauty, and I can even enjoy the social scene—as long as I avoid talking politics. Still a Southern Californian at heart, though—fourth generation at that. I commute on the 101, but I work odd hours and I only have to go 5 miles total, so it’s not bad. I make the occasional jaunt up to Berkeley, to visit a friend who lives there; 880 is worse, traffic jams even on a Sunday afternoon. Good thing you can mostly avoid these days!; 4/18/20, 1:32 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: J Farmer,

I won't dispute the initial social distancing. What I dispute is the continued panicked response. Now we have information. Imperfect, yes, but information is always imperfect. A novel virus--no human immunity. That is redundant. And we don't know about immunity, because corona viruses are not new, and there is cross immunity to common virus types.

No known treatments? No vaccines? Not unexpected for a novel form of a common virus. Every time the flu comes around, we have no known treatments, except symptomatic relief, and the vaccine is a crap shoot.

The fact is, this was not--and to some of us, this was obvious from the start--a defcon 5 situation. Initial caution? Sure. Continued panic? Insane overreaction.

All of the issues you raise are issues with any new presentation of a known type of virus. And we don't ruin the economy over them.

I am going to say this flat out: so what if people die? People die every day, all day, from all sorts of things, including viruses. We don't bring life to a screeching halt because of that. Why has this caused such hysteria?; 4/18/20, 1:34 AM
PresbyPoet said...: Anne-I-Am,

We can never be fully prepared. We don't know the future.

We should use this to remind us the bay area is full of faults. When the Calaveras ruptures from San Jose to Concord, and every overpass of 680 has fallen, it will take a lot longer than 72 hours to start to get help. Picture all the traffic on 580 trying to squeeze into one lane of 152. This mild fake "pandemic", can be helpful if we use it as a wake up call, and stop buying anything crucial from China.; 4/18/20, 1:38 AM
Josephbleau said...: Conclusion: Government decides US Citizens are stupid beyond belief. Constitutional rights only apply to smart people.

Government kills thousands to save hundreds.; 4/18/20, 1:38 AM
Jon Ericson said...: Noam wut I'm sayin'; 4/18/20, 1:41 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Anne:

I won't dispute the initial social distancing. What I dispute is the continued panicked response. Now we have information. Imperfect, yes, but information is always imperfect.

I haven't disputed this, so you're not arguing with any position I've advocated. Region specific strategies make sense, though I leave open the possibility that there may be spikes in areas not hit hard before.

No known treatments? No vaccines? Not unexpected for a novel form of a common virus. Every time the flu comes around, we have no known treatments, except symptomatic relief, and the vaccine is a crap shoot.

Well, we do have antivirals for influenza. And even imperfect vaccines can offer some benefit. But most importantly many people have natural resistance. And the fact of cross immunity to common virus types tells us nothing about this particular virus. Plus, we don't have vaccines for any of the coronaviruses that infect humans.

The fact is, this was not--and to some of us, this was obvious from the start--a defcon 5 situation. Initial caution? Sure. Continued panic? Insane overreaction.

Even the most pessimistic scenario would not have been cataclysmic. Society carried on from the 1918 flu, even though it disproportionately affected older people. Pedantic point: Defcon 5 is the least trouble; you meant Defcon 1. Barring that, there was not substantial evidence at the time to make any kind of confident assertion. Guessing right does not make something "obvious."

All of the issues you raise are issues with any new presentation of a known type of virus. And we don't ruin the economy over them.

Given the combination of factors at the onset, there is not much precedence.

I am going to say this flat out: so what if people die? People die every day, all day, from all sorts of things, including viruses. We don't bring life to a screeching halt because of that. Why has this caused such hysteria?

Remember Obama's "death panels?" A tremendous amount of healthcare spending occurs among people over 65. Do you consider this spending a waste? As to your last question, I would say "the unknown." Sometimes you have to make decisions with imperfect information when faced with a potential threat.; 4/18/20, 1:57 AM
BUMBLE BEE said...: Friend's company helped put this together, Very good in thought and deed...

https://vimeo.com/408869785/af71ece185; 4/18/20, 1:57 AM
Josephbleau said...: I realy feel bad in this crono death economy, you know.

When I used to ride the 12 bus home from California the folks could rob me and steal my money. Since I don't ride the bus under crono, I am depriving them of income.; 4/18/20, 1:57 AM
buwaya said...: The discrepancies become more interesting as you wander out of the US.
These are extreme.
A simple epidemic-infection model fails completely, as such variation implies numerous critical factors that are unknown.

We are in a country that is, possibly, the hardest hit by coronavirus at this point, we may have passed Italy after all the data is reconciled.
Why?
Social/living arrangements? Crowding? Mass transportation?
Spain and Italy are not unique in these at all.
Weather? Then why not Poland or Austria?

And in the same country you have unexplainable discrepancies. Why Milan and not Naples? Can anyone imagine that there are more opportunities for contagion in Milan vs Naples? Why Barcelona vs Sevilla?

The broad pattern emerging seems to be that climate is extremely important. No "hot" country has suffered significantly, within an order of magnitude of the "cold" countries. SE Asia should have been smashed with this, but it hasn't been, in spite of any number of vulnerabilities and deficiencies.

In Europe the more Eastward countries have been hit vastly less. Some exceptions are probably extremely important in teasing out the most important factors, notably Portugal.; 4/18/20, 1:59 AM
J. Farmer said...: @mandrewa:

But that's always true. And it seems to be true for everyone.

But still not everyone does this to the same degree. There are always some that are better at getting around their own confirmation bias.

That is certainly true. It's something you should always be vigilant of. I was only pointing out that it is inconsistent to play up Ioannidis' observations and then turn around and support people who were making predictions. These people weren't being supported because their methodology or data were superior, but because their conclusions were ones that people preferred.

One of the many downsides to living in a society as hyperpolarized as ours is the way you are often corralled into one of two positions, from which each side then spends their time shouting at the other and pointing out how evil, dumb, gullible the other side is. Any kind of nuances positions is often crowded out. Overreacting to a threat is a problem worth criticizing but so is under reacting to it.; 4/18/20, 2:03 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: J Farmer,

You and I will disagree over the level of panic necessary. We agree on the initial caution. I would proffer that a corona virus is not on the level of an Ebola or a Marburg or a rabies. THIS corona virus may be novel, but corona viruses are not, as influenza viruses are not.

Death panels? Yes, most of our healthcare spending is on people getting on in years. And those with chronic conditions. Saying that we should stop spending on them is not the same as saying we should accept that the vulnerable among us should receive not only healthcare dollars but the benefit of an economy brought to a halt to save them. C'mon, you can see the difference.

I am not going to argue that the 430 lb 60 year old my BIL labored to save from the Chinese Lab Virus should not have received care. What I will say is that he would have been at risk from the flu, from pneumonia, from almost fucking anything--and that while we labor to save him, he doesn't deserve an economic shutdown. And the as yet unafflicted obese Americans out there absolutely do not warrant an economic catastrophe to save their fat asses.; 4/18/20, 2:07 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Josephbleau:

Conclusion: Government decides US Citizens are stupid beyond belief. Constitutional rights only apply to smart people.

The Constitution (in theory) constrains the power of the federal government. States have broad leeway in their police power. The Bill of Rights did not apply to the states before the Civil War.

Government kills thousands to save hundreds.

What does this even mean?; 4/18/20, 2:09 AM
Josephbleau said...: Farmer, so you are at the nihilistic point. Nothing makes sense including you. Your only choice is to break through to the other side, try some microdot, 250 MMGM dose.; 4/18/20, 2:15 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: J Farmer,

Government kills thousands to save hundreds. Pretty obvious. The government is sacrificing the well-being, health, livelihoods, and possibly life itself, of many, to ostensibly save a few. And it is arguable whether we are really saving a few, or whether they would have eventually caught the virus and died anyway. Or died from something else, because they were in terrible health.

The government told us they weren't trying to save people--only trying to save the system from being overloaded. Now, it has morphed into saving lives. Calvinball. Bullshit. As I said, the amygdala run wild. And that is a charitable perspective. The less charitable perspective is that some people in charge got a taste of absolute power and decided they want more. Politics and police attract the bullies among us.; 4/18/20, 2:17 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Anne:

I would proffer that a corona virus is not on the level of an Ebola or a Marburg or a rabies. THIS corona virus may be novel, but corona viruses are not, as influenza viruses are not.

The virus family does not tell us anything about this particular virus' transmission, symptoms, or severity. And again, we have already developed vaccines for influenza and thus are way ahead of the curve. We have no vaccines for coronaviruses that infect humans. That is why we were able to develop a swine flu vaccine in less than six months compared to the expected time before we get a coronavirus vaccine.

Death panels? Yes, most of our healthcare spending is on people getting on in years. And those with chronic conditions. Saying that we should stop spending on them is not the same as saying we should accept that the vulnerable among us should receive not only healthcare dollars but the benefit of an economy brought to a halt to save them. C'mon, you can see the difference.

If we shouldn't be hysterical about a pandemic then we shouldn't be hysterical about the economy. The economy was not "brought to a halt." A number of industries continue to operate. That, of course, is not to minimize the effect on other sectors of the economy more adversely affected. But in that case, we are lucky that we live in a wealthy society, and we can spend money to help mitigate the damage and ease the disruption. And we will likely have to do more, because even in the absence of government mandates, we can expect potential disruptions due to voluntary changes in behavior.; 4/18/20, 2:18 AM
Josephbleau said...: Government kills thousands to save hundreds.

What does this even mean?

What it means is that the governemt uses safety as an excuse to control the masses.; 4/18/20, 2:18 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Josephbleau:

Farmer, so you are at the nihilistic point. Nothing makes sense including you. Your only choice is to break through to the other side, try some microdot, 250 MMGM dose.

Insulting me doesn't make me wrong or you right.; 4/18/20, 2:20 AM
Josephbleau said...: We must destroy the village in order to save it.; 4/18/20, 2:20 AM
J. Farmer said...: What it means is that the governemt uses safety as an excuse to control the masses.

I'll grant you some basic truth as a general statement, but what does that have to do with the current situation? What exactly would be the motive under the current circumstances?; 4/18/20, 2:22 AM
Josephbleau said...: If you look at my posts, there is no reasonable example of me insulting you, I actually like communicating with you.; 4/18/20, 2:22 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Anne:

The government is sacrificing the well-being, health, livelihoods, and possibly life itself, of many, to ostensibly save a few.

The "many" and "few" there aren't easily substantiated.; 4/18/20, 2:26 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: J Farmer,

Not hysterical about the economy. But outraged that millions have lost jobs, lost businesses, lost years of work because of this. And you speak of the economy as though it is separate from people. But it isn't. It is people who will commit suicide, go through divorces, abuse their partners, abuse their children, spiral into depression, suffer from addiction, have acute disease episodes, and suffer from chronic health problems because we have moved from flattening the curve to what? Preventing another death?

Your insensitivity to the morbidity and mortality that will result from this panic tells me you are safe--still working--and not immediately affected. What a luxury.

We can all agree that the initial caution was warranted. What are you arguing for now? Saving a few at the expense of the many? I don't get it. Are you so insulated from the harm that is being done to your fellow humans? It isn't "the economy." It is fucking people.; 4/18/20, 2:27 AM
J. Farmer said...: Josephbleau:

If you look at my posts, there is no reasonable example of me insulting you, I actually like communicating with you.

"Farmer, so you are at the nihilistic point. Nothing makes sense including you."

Even if this statement were true it wouldn't make anything I said wrong.; 4/18/20, 2:27 AM
Kyjo said...: Just for fun, let’s generalize from that Santa Clara County antibody study. Caveat lector: I’m not a scientist of any kind, nor do I portray one on TV.

Let’s say 2.49%–4.16% of the US population was infected by early April, as the study concludes is likely for Santa Clara County. (Not enough for any potential herd immunity, unfortunately.) That would mean 8.2–13.8 million Americans were infected by early April. The total US death toll is at 37,154 to date. To better account for the lag between infection and death, let’s push that number up to a generous 50,000 deaths by the end of next week (not an exponential increase, since we’re not experiencing that at present), accounting for deaths resulting from infections acquired in early April. That would be a death rate of 0.36%–0.61%. That’s bad, but it ain’t exactly the Spanish flu. Bearing in mind that true prevalence is, if anything, higher than the 2.49%–4.16% estimated for Santa Clara County, the lower end of that death rate range is more likely than the higher end.

OK, so let’s extrapolate from the 0.09%–0.14% death rate—on par with season flu—implied for Santa Clara County by the antibody study. (Again, if anything, actual prevalence is higher, so the actual death rate may well be lower even than this.) A death toll of 50,000 by the end of next week would indicate 35.7–55.6 million Americans were infected by early April, which is around 10.8%–16.8% of the population. (Still too low for any potential herd immunity nationally, alas.); 4/18/20, 2:30 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: farmer,

The many and the few are easily substantiated? What the fuck are you talking about? The corpses aren't piling up in the streets. If this virus is as virulent and as lethal as they say, we should be drowning in bodies. We aren't. And we won't be. You can't have it both ways. If it is contagious, contagious, contagious--then many, many people have caught it. Where are the bodies?

If it is lethal, lethal, lethal--so much so that we must sacrifice the well-being of MILLIONS, then it must not be very fucking contagious, or the bodies would be everywhere. And if it isn't that contagious, then we ought to be able to contain it without shutting healthy people inside their homes.

Quit reaching back to the past--and the unknown--to justify what is happening right now.

It is time for this to stop. Even if thousands of old, fat people die. Their lives are not worth the lives of everyone else. Period. Spend what we have to on them if they fall ill, but don't sacrifice the mental, physical and economic health of hundreds of millions for them.

Done now. This is insane.; 4/18/20, 2:33 AM
buwaya said...: Going all empirical on this thing, based on ten weeks of global experience, I think I am safe in predicting that you will see no significant effects in Hawaii, where it has been a non-starter from the beginning.

And for that matter this should all go away for the Northern hemisphere come summer.; 4/18/20, 2:33 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Anne:

Your insensitivity to the morbidity and mortality that will result from this panic tells me you are safe--still working--and not immediately affected. What a luxury.

I voluntarily closed my business through the end of April and paid all of my employees their salary during the closure. Yes, the fact that I have the ability to do that is a luxury I am grateful for. It's also the product of a lot of hard work.

It may surprise you that historically death rates have fallen during economic downturns, not increased. I don't mention that to refute all you said only that it's something to keep in mind. A lot of the economic effects from the "initial caution" that you supported, so apparently you thought that was worth the economic cost. We have the financial resources to mitigate a lot of problems. And it's not accurate to attribute all of the economic effects to government mandates given the effect of people voluntarily changing their behavior, the built in uncertainty over the effects of the virus, and the effects on other countries.

What are you arguing for now? Saving a few at the expense of the many? I don't get it. Are you so insulated from the harm that is being done to your fellow humans? It isn't "the economy." It is fucking people.

You're the one who began the interaction with me, not the other way around. I was responding to a comment Sebastian made. Everything since has been my reply to you. You can go back and read that comment if you wish.; 4/18/20, 2:36 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Anne:

The many and the few are easily substantiated? What the fuck are you talking about? The corpses aren't piling up in the streets. If this virus is as virulent and as lethal as they say, we should be drowning in bodies. We aren't. And we won't be. You can't have it both ways. If it is contagious, contagious, contagious--then many, many people have caught it. Where are the bodies?

You can't expect me to defend claims I never made. If someone told you that bodies would be piling up in the streets, go argue with them. I've never said it.

Passing the peak does not mean that the infections simply stop. We don't know how long the down slope will be. We have no idea how many infections occurred last week and how many of those will show up in a few weeks from now.

It is time for this to stop.

Again, where have I advocated the opposite? You seem intent to argue with me over positions I don't hold.; 4/18/20, 2:41 AM
buwaya said...: Santa Clara county probably (usually) suffers less from the seasonal flu than most of the US.

California is usually rather light on the flu, comparatively. There are very large geographic discrepancies in flu severity.; 4/18/20, 2:43 AM
J. Farmer said...: @buwaya:

Going all empirical on this thing, based on ten weeks of global experience, I think I am safe in predicting that you will see no significant effects in Hawaii, where it has been a non-starter from the beginning.

The weather effects do look promising, although the clusters in south Florida, Louisiana, and East Texas are curious in this regard.; 4/18/20, 2:45 AM
J. Farmer said...: California is usually rather light on the flu, comparatively. There are very large geographic discrepancies in flu severity.

I've seen a lot of potential explanations for this. The prevalence of outdoor activity during the height of the season, and the increased use of telecommuting among a lot of tech workers for example.

I do find it interesting that some people are prepared to express outrage over some people getting the magnitude of the problem wrong while ignoring that others spent the entire month of February saying this was a hoax that wouldn't have any effect here.; 4/18/20, 2:49 AM
Kyjo said...: @Farmer, did we have any good reason to believe in mid-March that this pandemic was going to be as deadly as or worse than the 1918 flu? Because the approaches recommended and taken have been broader and more restrictive than the most restrictive measures taken by the most successful municipalities in 1918. There were no statewide “shelter-in-place” or “stay-at-home” orders or mandatory closures of barber shops, tailors, and furniture stores.; 4/18/20, 2:53 AM
Josephbleau said...: "Farmer, so you are at the nihilistic point. Nothing makes sense including you."

A grave insult indeed, draw pistols Mr. Farmer.

Your Honor cannot bear this degeneration of your character.; 4/18/20, 3:03 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Kyjo:

@Farmer, did we have any good reason to believe in mid-March that this pandemic was going to be as deadly as or worse than the 1918 flu?

The threat wouldn't have to be "as deadly as or worse than" to justify a different response. A big factor was the potential for transmission while asymptomatic or presymptomatic. And again, it wasn't the lethality that prompted the social distancing but the potential for a spike in cases to strain healthcare resources. The population is more dense than it was in 1918, and it's much easier for large numbers of people to move efficiently over great distances.; 4/18/20, 3:07 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Josephbleau:

Your Honor cannot bear this degeneration of your character.

Oh, I don't give a shit about my character. Only pointing out that your comment was neither here nor there ;); 4/18/20, 3:08 AM
J. Farmer said...: p.s. And I prefer bladed weapons. More personal.; 4/18/20, 3:09 AM
Kyjo said...: @Farmer, there was no real justification in mid-March for going straight to stricter measures than were undertaken in 1918 for Spanish flu—a more dangerous illness at a time with less epidemiological knowledge, lower capacity for acute medical care, and worse health outcomes in general. Certainly many basic social distancing measures were reasonable precautions, but statewide mandatory furniture store closures? Fines and misdemeanors for driving with a non-essential purpose? Of questionable value at best, unconstitutional overreach at worst.

Even so, I don’t harshly judge the municipal, county, and state officials who made these calls; their work necessarily biases them toward positive action. The well-meaning epidemiologists had their very scary models, the media pumped out the worst-case predictions from these models, and the public started going into panic mode. You don’t want to be seen as under-reacting and judged as a do-nothing when everyone’s being told about the millions of deaths knocking at the door. Heck, in cities like New York it may even have been the best available response—but that doesn’t obviously justify the same approach in the intermountain West.

Seriously, I was told on Mar. 26—by a fucking epidemiologist no less, credentialled and all—that without mandatory mass quarantines across the country, we’d be looking at a minimum infection rate of 20% (“unrealistically optimistic”) with people aged 20-65 hospitalized at a “conservative” rate of 25% or more (that rate was already easily refuted by contemporaneous data)—16 million working-age Americans hospitalized over a short span of time, with many more too sick to work but unhospitalized, rather than spread out over the 12–18 months it would take to develop a vaccine. This more than justified 3.3 million new unemployed in a week, which wouldn’t be as much of a problem had we a stronger social safety net for them. How many things wasn’t she accounting for? Ongoing significant selection bias in the testing data, a false choice between doing nothing and mandatory mass quarantines (no, she said, that just depends on whether people will voluntarily mass quarantine!), faulty and improbable generalizations from the Diamond Princess, and lack of any consideration for future economic impacts and unemployment from ongoing mass quarantines (I sarcastically suggested an exponential model that got up to 25 million by week 6—oops, too optimistic).

I’m not sure how good an epidemiologist she really is, though I have no reason to doubt her credentials. But you can clearly see this same myopic approach taken in much of modelling upon which we’ve justified the most restrictive peacetime measures ever undertaken in this country. Lack of reliable data is certainly reason to take precautions, but this was a fundamentally irrational approach.; 4/18/20, 4:26 AM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Blogger buwaya said...

Going all empirical on this thing, based on ten weeks of global experience, I think I am safe in predicting that you will see no significant effects in Hawaii, where it has been a non-starter from the beginning.

On the Big Island, population ~150k, we have had around forty cases, thirty released with no restrictions, the ten or eleven remaining with active illness home quarantining. No deaths, no hospitalizations.
State wide we've had around 500 confirmed cases, and nine deaths. Over 80% of the 500 cases brought the disease with them from elsewhere, and another ten percent got it from close contact with someone who had brought with them from out state.; 4/18/20, 4:38 AM
Kyjo said...: Ironically, that same epidemiologist who said a 20% infection rate was “unreasonably optimistic” commented that she doesn’t think the case numbers are underreported as much as suggested by the Santa Clara County antibody study.; 4/18/20, 4:47 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Kylo:

@Farmer, there was no real justification in mid-March for going straight to stricter measures than were undertaken in 1918 for Spanish flu—a more dangerous illness at a time with less epidemiological knowledge, lower capacity for acute medical care, and worse health outcomes in general. Certainly many basic social distancing measures were reasonable precautions, but statewide mandatory furniture store closures? Fines and misdemeanors for driving with a non-essential purpose? Of questionable value at best, unconstitutional overreach at worst.

I honestly don't understand what parallel you're trying to make with the 198 flu. There was no coordinated response, and it's not as if that response is anything we should look to as a model. There was a lot of effort at the time to downplay the threat because of the war effort.

The lethality was not the primary justification for the temporary shut down. It was to prevent a spike of cases over a short period of time. What necessitated such a blunt response was a lack of testing, which meant we couldn't effectively identify the cases. We also couldn't determine with any certainty where spikes would occur. The basic "flatten the curve" approach was what was left, given the unknowns.

Mind you, I am only defending a temporary widespread shutdown. I don't doubt that there are many dumb stories of it being enforced by overzealous or confused local authorities.

It was not possible to know with any degree of certainty what the infection rate, lethality rate, or hospitalization rate would be. But preliminary data was enough cause for concern. And distancing earlier rather than later is preferable. A virus that is more contagious but less lethal than the flu can easily kill more people than the flu.

Lack of reliable data is certainly reason to take precautions, but this was a fundamentally irrational approach.

If you grant lack of reliable data, how do you differentiate appropriate precautions from an "irrational approach"?; 4/18/20, 4:52 AM
Kyjo said...: Here’s an NIH serological study looking for participants. If you’re 18 or older with no confirmed history of COVID-19 and not currently suffering symptoms consistent with it, you may be eligible to participate.

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection; 4/18/20, 4:54 AM
Mr. Forward said...: Painted rocks are how the coronavirus communicates.; 4/18/20, 5:00 AM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Well, we will be okay.; 4/18/20, 5:20 AM
J. Farmer said...: I wonder how many people remember the famous 60's self-help book I'm Okay - You're Okay. It was based on an offshoot of psychoanalysis called "transactional analysis," which is no longer widely acknowledged in the profession. It did form some of the basis for what would later be called "positive psychology," which basically recast psychologists treating disorders as life coaches promoting well-being. Yuck.; 4/18/20, 5:31 AM
Kyjo said...: @Farmer, the analogy to the 1918 flu came from the epidemiologists. The successful responses of some
municipalities, which avoided overburdened hospitals, are the basis of our present social distancing measures. And sure, formally the primary justification was avoiding a spike and overburdening our healthcare system, but let’s not kid ourselves that the potential death rate wasn’t critical in persuading the public officials and the general public of the need for such measures. Here’s something that happened in San Jose, on March 26:

City of San Jose projections suggest a staggering 2,000 people in Santa Clara County could die of coronavirus by June, despite unprecedented measures shutting businesses and isolating people at home to check its rapid spread. ...

“Even in the best-case scenario, we were looking at the order — in the next 12 weeks — of 2,000 potential deaths directly from COVID-19,” Harkness said at the meeting, referring to the “full suppression” shelter-in-place measures that county health officers around the Bay Area imposed March 16.

With more modest measures or lack of compliance, fatalities could triple to 6,000, Harkness said, and without any social distancing the number could reach as high as 16,000.

Harkness told the council the data is a “rough estimate,” clarifying that Santa Clara County was working on a “much more detailed and robust estimate” itself. “But given the urgency of this situation, we have decided to share these preliminary results in order to drive the action needed to save lives,” he said.

Does it seem to you he was suggesting that under a better-than-best case scenario there would still be 2,000 COVID-19 deaths in the county, spike or no spike? Then of course there are the neighbors, friends, and family who are all about how we’re SAVING LIVES from COVID-19. Poor suckers never grasped that the primary justification wasn’t saving lives, I guess.

If you grant lack of reliable data, how do you differentiate appropriate precautions from an "irrational approach"?

We can start by not basing public policy on epidemiological models which do not account for the negative economic and social affects of their recommendations. I don’t think that’s a particularly high bar, do you?; 4/18/20, 5:32 AM
stevew said...: There are lots of "we" that won't be ok. Me, I'm fine and will continue to be so. The sort syrupy, feel good, clap-trap written on that stone is annoying as hell.

You know what else is annoying? Snow falling and covering the ground here on April 18th. We'll be ok, should be gone by tomorrow.; 4/18/20, 5:37 AM
Kyjo said...: The point is, the approach we’ve taken was more extreme than any we’ve ever taken before in response to a pandemic, and all without sufficient reason to believe that this pandemic would be worse than the worst pandemic in US history. If it did somehow become worse than 1918, that’s just moral luck: we didn’t have reliable data suggesting it would be worse, so it wouldn’t be reasonable to blame us for not responding as aggressively. If these measures have actually been effective in the way intended, well—I almost hate to say it—but that too is moral luck, because we didn’t have reliable data to show with any degree of certainty that the measures would work.; 4/18/20, 5:50 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Kylo:

@Farmer, the analogy to the 1918 flu came from the epidemiologists. The successful responses of some municipalities, which avoided overburdened hospitals, are the basis of our present social distancing measures.

Ah, I understand your point now. You mean as evidence of the efficacy of social distancing. Yes, the St. Louis vs. Philadelphia cases is the classic example. Social distancing has long been a mitigation tactic and not is confined only to the 1918 flu.

Poor suckers never grasped that the primary justification wasn’t saving lives, I guess.

Well, sure, saving lives is the justification. That's why not overburdening health services is important, because an overburdened health system will lead to unnecessary death.

We can start by not basing public policy on epidemiological models which do not account for the negative economic and social affects of their recommendations. I don’t think that’s a particularly high bar, do you?

The "negative economic and social affects" for under responding would also have to be factored in. That's a whole other model, and such models would also have to make assumptions based on a huge number of variables. What would make you any more confident in those models' predictions than the ones that are already derided?; 4/18/20, 5:52 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Kylo:

The point is, the approach we’ve taken was more extreme than any we’ve ever taken before in response to a pandemic, and all without sufficient reason to believe that this pandemic would be worse than the worst pandemic in US history.

That presumes the approach taken in 1918 was commensurate with the threat faced at the time. It wasn't. The approach was taken because we had no way of effectively identifying and quarantining the sick, the possibility of a long incubation period, concerns with the virus' ability to spread from asymptomatic and presymptomatic people, and the fact that some subset of the infected would require hospitalization.

And as you said earlier, "their work necessarily biases them toward positive action."; 4/18/20, 5:59 AM
Kyjo said...: @Farmer, the guy was saying there will be 2,000 deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 by June under the best case scenario, with a “shelter-in-place” order already in effect for more than week, and that there will be even more deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 if social distancing requirements are relaxed before June. He was not talking about deaths resulting from a spike in cases overwhelming the healthcare system. He was not saying that we’re just spreading COVID-19 cases and deaths out over a longer period of time to avoid such a spike. Don’t be obtuse.

The "negative economic and social affects" for under responding would also have to be factored in. That's a whole other model, and such models would also have to make assumptions based on a huge number of variables. What would make you any more confident in those models' predictions than the ones that are already derided?

Well, they’d already be looking at the unavoidable tradeoffs in that case, instead of pretending that “we must never sacrifice lives for the economy.” That’s already more honest and informative.; 4/18/20, 6:13 AM
Kyjo said...: @Farmer: That presumes the approach taken in 1918 was commensurate with the threat faced at the time. It wasn't.

Is your argument that the most successful municipalities would have been even more successful had they shut down all barbers, tailors, and furniture stores? My point is more than just about epidemiological success, anyway. It’s about the tradeoffs that were made. There was no vaccine for the flu till the 1940s, but now we have Harvard epidemiologists earnestly “predicting” that we may have to continue with at least intermittent “stay at home orders” till 2022 if a vaccine for COVID-19 isn’t found quickly. And what if we never get an effective vaccine?; 4/18/20, 6:25 AM
gilbar said...: Serious Question
Remember Movie Theaters? Not CinePlexes, But Movie Theaters?
Where there would be ONE screen, that showed ONE Movie?
And people would sit down, watch the movie 'til the end,
THEN; STAY, and wait until the movie started Again, and watch until they'd say:
............This Is Where We Came In.........
and then Get up, and leave.

Remember that? Do any of you Actually remember DOING that?
I sure remember the phrase; but i have no recollection of ever actually Doing it?
And, I can't Begin to imagine today's people even getting the idea.

So,
a)how long was the wait between movies back then? Did the shorts & newsreels start right away?
b) what do today's people think the expression even means?
c) DO today's people even thing?; 4/18/20, 6:50 AM
wildswan said...: It ain't over till the fat lady sings. First, this may come back in the fall and if it does we'll be ready with treatments and ventilators and hand washing but no more national shutdowns (I hope and pray.) Or the Silk Road vector may send out another virus, in fact it will for certain if there's no reform. Again, we'll be ready. Second, it isn't quite right to ignore the impact of fear and panic and the need to manage it. People obeyed the lockdown because they were afraid and if there had been no practical, rational course of action offered, there is no saying what people might have done. The fact they carried out the policy indicates how fearful people were. But they were afraid, not brain dead, so that as soon as Governor Witless tried to exploit the situation, she was unmasked. Third, the hardest hit place, New York, has had people jammed together in subways, morning and evening, the whole time and started social distancing quite late. Fourth, the place that should have been hardest hit, Los Angeles - most flights in from China, 50,000 dirty homeless people wandering about - has had a struggle with a spike but has not been overwhelmed. Los Angeles has social distancing built into the way the city is - it is spread out and uses cars as transportation. And it has a lot of sunshine. Perhaps we'll find that bat viruses like bat-cave conditions and that cities or climate zones or subways which bat-viruses hit hard approximate bat-caves the most. Anyhow, we need to pull together to recover just as much as we needed to pull together to handle a pandemic without a panic except over TP.

PS Geezer lockdown ain't gonna happen. Some people never seem to realize where young people come from - they are the children of older people and those older people usually are closely integrated into their children's lives. Children may fear infecting their parents- that doesn't mean they would agree to a Whitmerism or Chinese practices as a way of life for Mom and Dad.; 4/18/20, 6:50 AM
Kyjo said...: @Farmer: To clarify, though, I know you’re defending an initial, temporary widespread shutdown. I would be surprised in deed of you were to defend widespread shutdowns, even intermittently, for 2 more years in the absence of a vaccine.; 4/18/20, 6:52 AM
gilbar said...: wildswan said...
It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

true but (Assuming that it's the same, or similar virus) the likely death candidates will ALREADY BE DEAD

In NYC, nearly half (47.7%+) of the deaths were people 75 years old, or older
and 85.8% of those oldsters had underlying conditions
THOSE people will NOT die this fall; they are ALREADY DEAD

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/; 4/18/20, 6:58 AM
Rusty said...: "You know what else is annoying? Snow falling and covering the ground here on April 18th. We'll be ok, should be gone by tomorrow."
Mother nature is startin' to piss me off.
Is quarantine shaming now a thing with the usual suspects?
I'm noticing that all of a sudden EVERYBODY is a virology expert.
Most of the governors of the various states are complete fascist assholes with very few excptions. Some police departments don't deserve to wear badges.
Public sector employees who are getting paid to sit at home should probably keep their opinions to themselves.
Tammy Duckworth is a despicable little shit with no honor.; 4/18/20, 7:06 AM
Fernandinande said...: That rock might have cooties on it - wear gloves when reading it.; 4/18/20, 7:16 AM
mandrewa said...: J. Farmer said,

"If we shouldn't be hysterical about a pandemic then we shouldn't be hysterical about the economy. The economy was not "brought to a halt." A number of industries continue to operate. That, of course, is not to minimize the effect on other sectors of the economy more adversely affected. But in that case, we are lucky that we live in a wealthy society, and we can spend money to help mitigate the damage and ease the disruption."

I think this, emphasized in bold, is the main flaw in J. Farmer's thinking. He has a lot of company. So many people just don't get the amazing, astonishing incredible damage being done to everyone whose income depends on the marketplace.; 4/18/20, 7:36 AM