Althouse: "There will be a lot of death" as we enter what may be "the toughest week," said President Trump.

April 4, 2020

"There will be a lot of death" as we enter what may be "the toughest week," said President Trump.

And Dr. Deborah Birx said: The next two weeks are extraordinarily important. This is the moment to not be going to the grocery store, not going to the pharmacy, but doing everything you can to keep your family and your friends safe and that means everybody doing the six-feet distancing, washing their hands."

Quoted in the NYT.

91 comments:

Freeman Hunt said...: Look at poor France. Ouch. They're also getting a thousand deaths a day.; 4/4/20, 7:23 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Looks like California processed about 46,000 of their backlogged tests, with large drop in percent positive. It is largely responsible for the increase in test results today and the drop in overall ratio of positives for the country as a whole.; 4/4/20, 7:23 PM
Yancey Ward said...: In short, it looks like California processed about 49,000 tests in the last 24 hours to get 1,400 new cases, or a positive percentage for just today of 3% when they had been running at over 30%. It makes me wonder about those 60,000 samples that have been sitting around for almost a week- did they degrade?; 4/4/20, 7:28 PM
Char Char Binks, Esq. said...: A lot of death? Trump is peddling false hope! IMPEACH!!!; 4/4/20, 7:36 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @Yancey Ward,

The best epidemiologist in the world, Dr. John Ioannidis from Stanford, is on the same page as you re testing:.

Money quotes:

"As government and public health officials make decisions of enormous magnitude, shouldn’t we know how infectious and lethal the coronavirus is?"

"How deadly is the coronavirus? It is a simple but vital question that we don’t know the answer to right now. With American lives and livelihoods on the line, we need a science-based baseline from which to make public policy decisions. Hopefully those answers come sooner than later as the White House looks to do random sampling, something I recently reported."

"The economic toll of shutting down nonessential businesses across the country is also real. A record-shattering 10 million Americans filing for unemployment in just two weeks and the largest bailout in United States history — $2.2 trillion — are sobering numbers that reflect the economic calamity we are facing. As government and public health officials make decisions of enormous magnitude, shouldn’t we know how infectious and lethal the coronavirus is?"

"That is why random sampling is important. John Ioannidis, a Stanford epidemiologist who is famous for debunking bad research, has been pushing for it. He told me that random sampling is needed and could be done with a couple of thousand tests. When I told him that I previously worked in the polling industry, he put it in terms that resonated with me. He said, “Random representative testing is like polling. We run thousands of opinion polls in this country. We should similarly get a representative sample of the population and get them tested. It is just so easy.”; 4/4/20, 7:39 PM
stephen cooper said...: Very good news from China, the noble city of Shenzhen has finally outlawed the killing and eating of dogs and cats (and, good people hope, also flying chihuahuas). The first step to the appeasement of God is to stop the abominations of your sins, and this is a good first step, albeit belated.

Very bad news from China, there are reports that the people are losing trust in the CCP and nationwide hoarding is again on the rise. Meaning maybe they did not bend the curve as much as they claimed, and the good people of China are worried.

Both items could be fake news.; 4/4/20, 7:43 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: The next two weeks are extraordinarily important. This is the moment to not be going to the grocery store, not going to the pharmacy, but doing everything you can to keep your family and your friends safe and that means everybody doing the six-feet distancing, washing their hands

I know the woman is tired but sentence this doesn't really make sense.; 4/4/20, 7:49 PM
Kathryn51 said...: For 3 days, IHME has not updated its models and this has been on their site: "Please check back on Saturday, April 4 for our next update."

No update as of 5:00 (PDT) today.

This is one of the models used by the White House (Fauci and Brix) to predict CV-19 infection/ICU requirements, etc. As menti8oned previously by many of the Althouse commentariat, the "range" on this model are extraordinarily wide. IHME says its primary purpose was to try and predict resource (ICU/ventilator) needs based upon estimated "peak" need.

The models are only as good as the data that goes into them and I applaud IHME for at least making the attempt and admitting that the unknowns were large.

I've been tracking for the last several days - here is where we stand (in terms of predictedCV-19 fatalities on August 4) as of 4/2:

Washington (my state):
3/31 – 1621
4/1 – 1233 (~25% drop)
4/2 – 978
Utah (limited restrictions)
4/1 – 586
4/2 – 580
Wisconsin (Althouse’s state)
4/1 – 926
4/2 – 951

Will update if IHME ever updates.; 4/4/20, 7:49 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Does Trump know something we don't know? His Twitter today:

To all of our youth who are missing the start of their
@LittleLeague seasons, hang in there! We will get you back out on the fields, and know that you will be playing baseball soon...We will get through this together, and bats will be swinging before you know it. In the meantime, take care of mom and dad, and know that this will not be forever!

Hmmm. I have a thought and prediction to make.; 4/4/20, 8:01 PM
Francisco D said...: It is not so much a question of "a lot of death" as it is a question of overwhelming (or not) the healthcare system and causing unnecessary deaths.

There is always a lot of death in the world ...

... and a lot of new life.; 4/4/20, 8:04 PM
D. said...: >Looks like California processed about 46,000 of their backlogged tests, with large drop in percent positive.<

were they doing test harvesting?; 4/4/20, 8:06 PM
narciso said...: interesting question; 4/4/20, 8:08 PM
Wince said...: Can't help but think of Kim Jong-il's mispronunciation in Team America World Police when I see Dr. Brix's name.

"Well inspect that, you butt-fucking piece of shit!"; 4/4/20, 8:09 PM
Ken B said...: Freeman
The US has five times the population of France. So in US terms, 5,000 a day. Strange to think we have so many here who think 5,000 a day a trifle.
What I want to know is, who convinced Trump to lead the anti Trump conspiracy? Because that's who I want as my marketing director.; 4/4/20, 8:13 PM
Mark said...: His young son is on Trump's mind, Bay.; 4/4/20, 8:16 PM
Francisco D said...: Ken B said What I want to know is, who convinced Trump to lead the anti Trump conspiracy? Because that's who I want as my marketing director.

I did not understand what you are trying to say. Can you clarify and expand?; 4/4/20, 8:16 PM
bradford said...: @ Bay Area Guy

You raise a great question on the need for some random sampling with the Covid19 test. It shouldn’t be that hard to do. We have a bunch of smart people in the effort. Why has so obvious an action not been done? The results would enable the experts to better tune their wildly variable models.

It almost makes you wonder that perhaps some people don’t want to know the answer.; 4/4/20, 8:17 PM
bradford said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/4/20, 8:17 PM
sinz52 said...: I don't have more than a week's worth of groceries on hand. And I don't have anyone to shop for me.

I tried the online delivery apps like Instacart and Peapod, but they're booked solid for the next ten days (that's as far into the future as they go).

I may have nothing to eat during the second week unless I can find some solution.

Anyone have any suggestions?
Anyone know how I can find someone--or hire someone--to shop for groceries for me?; 4/4/20, 8:19 PM
Sebastian said...: "doing everything you can to keep your family and your friends safe"

The vast majority of us are already safe. We are sacrificing for the risk groups. Next step: isolate them, not us, and reopen safely. Let us save the country. If we, the healthy, don't do everything we can, no one will be safe.; 4/4/20, 8:22 PM
narciso said...: we have most things but there are some items; 4/4/20, 8:22 PM
William said...: Danger is my middle name. I intend to go grocery shopping next week. A man's gotta do what a man's gotta do.; 4/4/20, 8:24 PM
Sebastian said...: "Anyone know how I can find someone--or hire someone--to shop for groceries for me?"

Call a neighbor. Call a neighbor's kids. Call a local church. It's not that hard, is it?

But the very fact that someone should ask indicates a priority in public policy, to provide some support to the risk groups; the panic is driven by the minority of scared people, a number of them old and alone: "what will happen to me? who will shop for me?" We should help.; 4/4/20, 8:26 PM
John henry said...: I thought last week was supposed to be the worst week?

I've pretty much given up on believing anyone at this point.

I get the feeling we are being scammed about the danger.

John Henry; 4/4/20, 8:29 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Isn't there some way we could sacrifice infants or young virgin girls to stop this terrible plague? Use your imaginations, people!; 4/4/20, 8:29 PM
BISkita said...: @sinz52 where are you? If you are in Minnesota I will shop for you. If not maybe someone else can help.; 4/4/20, 8:32 PM
pacwest said...: @sinz52

A lot of grocery stores around here will deliver. There are also some senior networks that have resources to help.; 4/4/20, 8:32 PM
Sebastian said...: "a positive percentage for just today of 3%"

Of people who were really eager to get tested. So: out of a much larger number of actual infections. Then, a small percentage of the positives will have complications, a smaller percentage of them will die, with a portion of those deaths not excess mortality, with Wuhan but not due to Wuhan. On the other side of the ledger are people not tested who will have complications: how many? Testing isn't everything. Still, on balance, the CA data seem reason to stem, not fuel the panic.; 4/4/20, 8:33 PM
rhhardin said...: The week of peak death isn't a special one for distancing. The first case in the world is the time for distancing, if you're going for effect.; 4/4/20, 8:36 PM
John henry said...: Good suggestions for Sebastian but there may be a problem asking someone to go to the store for you

How do you pay? If a relative you might trust them with your ath and pin number.

What about someone else?

When there is a threat of hurricane we stock up on cash. As much as possible, $1000 isn't too much. You can always put it back if you don't need it.

John Henry; 4/4/20, 8:37 PM
BISkita said...: @sinz52 I can also put together a package of shelf stable products for you and send it to you. Let us know what you need and where you are; 4/4/20, 8:40 PM
John henry said...: A bit off topic but might be of use to some.

At least 2,probably more I don't know about, factories here have set up minimarts.

Milk, bread, detergent, soup and other staples. I'm guessing 100-150 items.

Saves the employees from going to the store which is time consuming and risky.

John Henry; 4/4/20, 8:41 PM
MayBee said...: I would like a clarification on that. Surely she isn't telling everybody to not go to the grocery store or pharmacy.; 4/4/20, 8:44 PM
pacwest said...: I didn't watch the presser today. Were Trump and Birx talking about NY specifically? Different timing for different areas I'd think. Kinda like rolling blackouts.; 4/4/20, 8:46 PM
walter said...: "Veering from grim warnings to baseless assurances in a single news conference,"
First sentence.
Just the facts.
"Veering". He's one of those..veerers.; 4/4/20, 8:51 PM
RK said...: Was just in a grocery store in Madison (Woodman's on the West Side). About half the people are wearing masks. Blacks are congregating, especially around the liquor store. This grocery store is well-stocked with everything, including TP.; 4/4/20, 8:54 PM
Ken B said...: Francisco D
I am told, here, that it’s really a plot against Trump, to destroy the Trump boom. But Trump is part of the plot it seems. I figure anyone who can convince Trump to join the plot is a salesman of genius.; 4/4/20, 8:58 PM
Char Char Binks, Esq. said...: sinz, starving may not seem appealing, but look on the bright side —you won’t have ChiCom Fever when you’re dead.; 4/4/20, 8:58 PM
walter said...: You're in luck, Chuck!: Joe Biden 2020 Campaign T-Shirt; 4/4/20, 8:59 PM
walter said...: (Use the Althouse porthole, of course); 4/4/20, 9:01 PM
Tomcc said...: Oregon (so far) has a positivity rate of about 5%. The number of cases is increasing, but we're not overwhelming the health system: 900 cases with 21 deaths. New York and New Jersey are skewing the national results. Their rate of positive tests is closer to 40% and they have about half the deaths of the entire country.
My point is that I will be going to the store this week.
I have a niece with a baby living in NYC; I expect they will stay put.; 4/4/20, 9:03 PM
narciso said...: I noticed back logged case skew positive.; 4/4/20, 9:04 PM
Francisco D said...: Ken B said: I am told, here, that it’s really a plot against Trump, to destroy the Trump boom. But Trump is part of the plot it seems. I figure anyone who can convince Trump to join the plot is a salesman of genius.

OK Ken. I get where you are coming from. Thanks.

It's time to scroll past your comments.

Either the hysteria has gotten to your brain or I have not been playing close enough attention.; 4/4/20, 9:04 PM
Rosalyn C. said...: I think Dr. Birx might have been referring especially to NY because they are reaching their peak resource use in the next 6-8 days. I suspect that means the contagion will be at max strength, but I don't know for sure since I've also heard that 50% of contagious people have no symptoms. see: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections They are projecting a need of about 76K hospital beds for NY but only have about 13K. I would stay in as there will be massive numbers of sick people (and COVID-19) especially in NYC. I can't imagine how horrible it's going to be. I wish them well.

CA will be reaching its peak resource use later -- April 26. But we have ample resources according to the same source.; 4/4/20, 9:08 PM
whitney said...: What a bunch of BS. "Everybody stay home and order delivery, order from Amazon, order from instacart." You idiots know people work in all those places right? This is what happens to a feminized risk averse culture. Pathetic; 4/4/20, 9:10 PM
Ken B said...: “ New York and New Jersey are skewing the national results. ”

Skewing, or leading? That's the question. NY will be in the end one of the hardest hit because it’s so dense. It won’t always be that bad, so there is some skewing. But they are also leading as the virus grew there first. If the virus spreads it will be bad everywhere. And why wouldn’t it spread? The only answer is, if we can slow it enough to find an effective way to fight and contain it. Which, right now, means severe social distancing. In a while it might mean testing, isolating cases, and the like. But not today.; 4/4/20, 9:12 PM
Ken B said...: The article is terrible. It also says the FDA has not approved chloroquine for covid, but in fact it has approved it for covid in some cases.; 4/4/20, 9:16 PM
Buckwheathikes said...: "I don't have more than a week's worth of groceries on hand."

This is a remarkable statement of unpreparedness. You should have 3 months of groceries inside your house at this point. Obviously, you can't have 3 months of fruits, fresh veggies and meats, but you can have dried fruits, dried veggies and meats that have long shelf lives.

How could things have gotten this bad without you realizing this? And frankly, despite what we're hearing out of Washington, this thing IS NOT OVER next week. What's over next week is (maybe, maybe) the innundation of ICUs. And that's because most of the people who were going to die have already died.

Even AFTER that, there's going to be hundreds of thousands of people dying from this disease in the coming months. It's just going to be spread out farther.

This thing isn't over until a VACCINE is developed and widely deployed. Until then, your risk may go down a little bit, but it will not be eliminated, especially if you are in a high risk group (hypertension, heart disease, diabetes, obese, etc.); 4/4/20, 9:18 PM
Oso Negro said...: Blogger RK said...
Was just in a grocery store in Madison (Woodman's on the West Side). About half the people are wearing masks. Blacks are congregating, especially around the liquor store. This grocery store is well-stocked with everything, including TP.

4/4/20, 8:54 PM

Do you suspect something sinister is afoot?; 4/4/20, 9:24 PM
walter said...: "But they are also leading as the virus grew there first."
Wasn't WA first?
Yes, density most certainly plays a major role. As will reliance on mass transit. and international exposure. Yet California had plenty of Chinese exposure.; 4/4/20, 9:24 PM
wild chicken said...: "How do you pay? If a relative you might trust them with your ath and pin number"

Instacart delivery and Walmart pickup have worked great for me. You pay up front online with a card. The instacart guy put the stuff on our porch, rang the bell a d took off.; 4/4/20, 9:26 PM
walter said...: "Even AFTER that, there's going to be hundreds of thousands of people dying from this disease in the coming months. It's just going to be spread out farther."
Wow.
The numbers (per what?) vs the timeline really inform the level of prepping needed.; 4/4/20, 9:28 PM
pacwest said...: This is what happens to a ...... risk averse culture.

A risk averse culture based on a lack of personal responsibility.; 4/4/20, 9:40 PM
TomHynes said...: Easter will be sad this year, but the day before Easter will be a sadder day.; 4/4/20, 9:44 PM
walter said...: The IHME models seem to have overpredicted problems so far.
131
Posted at 9:33 pm by Glenn Reynolds
--
ruh roh; 4/4/20, 9:45 PM
Inga said...: Sinz, do you drive? You can shop online at Aldi’s and Walmart and then drive there and they have curbside pick up. They will put your groceries in the trunk of your car for you. Do you have anyone nearby that will pick up your groceries for you in case you don’t drive.; 4/4/20, 9:58 PM
Krumhorn said...: If there is an upside to any of this, at least the virus is concentrating the swing of its mighty death scythe among populations in the US largely comprised of leftie voters.

Ok, that was mean. i own it.

- Krumhorn; 4/4/20, 9:59 PM
Known Unknown said...: "Skewing, or leading? "

We are all living on the same timeline.

Ohio shut down early and its mitigation efforts seem to be helping. Also, the Ohio positive rate is around 9%. Mortality rate of all tested is currently 0.2%.; 4/4/20, 10:04 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Not to obfuscate the issue, but 100 years of US infectious disease mortality data suggests, nay, DEMONSTRATES, a 95% decline in said infectious disease deaths

See, Armstrong, JAMA (1999)..

Public health, penicillin and vaccines tend to help. Of course, those are luxuries. Wealth makes health.

Hard data v bullshit hysterical predictions based on flawed models. Which do you choose?; 4/4/20, 10:05 PM
Known Unknown said...: "This thing isn't over until a VACCINE is developed and widely deployed."

We don't have a vaccine for the seasonal flu. It kills 50k people a year, sometimes better, sometimes worse. We don't shut down the universe for the seasonal flu.

What will work is immunity, antibodies, and prophylactic treatments. People will still die. Most of them will already be very sick for another reason. Some places now consider people dying of cancer if they also get Covid-19 as coronavirus deaths. That's a bit disingenuous to me as it doesn't reflect the actual lethality of the disease.; 4/4/20, 10:08 PM
Known Unknown said...: " If the virus spreads it will be bad everywhere. And why wouldn’t it spread? "

It's already spread. That's why there's cases all over the country.; 4/4/20, 10:13 PM
FullMoon said...: "I don't have more than a week's worth of groceries on hand."

This is a remarkable statement of unpreparedness. You should have 3 months of groceries inside your house at this point. Obviously, you can't have 3 months of fruits, fresh veggies and meats, but you can have dried fruits, dried veggies and meats that have long shelf lives.

And plenty of ammunition. And twenty or thirty gallons of gasoline. Unless your apartment is too small.

Call the Catholic Church. They usually got a bunch of busybodies who do stuff for shutins and people who cannot get around. And they will be happy to do it.; 4/4/20, 10:15 PM
MountainMan said...: The IMHE numbers are being shown to be way off, even for NY. All the actual numbers seem to be running lower than projected. Alex Berenson on Twitter has been following this and if you go look at his feed you will see lots of tweets and links to articles about how far off the estimates are. I became suspicious in the last couple of days when several people pointed out how far off they were on AL. There is a very wide range in many of their estimates. It worries me greatly that Birx et al are using their estimates for decision-making but I guess they think they have the best numbers out there. They were promising a major update of their estimates today but I just checked and nothing has changed.

Glenn has a post on the numbers here,; 4/4/20, 10:16 PM
walter said...: Birx has established her narrative of lower numbers meaning corresponding folks "doing good" wrt mitigation.
Probably reluctant to let go until it doesn't matter.; 4/4/20, 10:37 PM
madAsHell said...: We will get you back out on the fields, and know that you will be playing baseball soon...

Put me in!! Coach!; 4/4/20, 10:40 PM
walter said...: Known Unknown said...We don't have a vaccine for the seasonal flu.
--
Well..we do..and we have had one..just a crapshoot of a vaccine.(Which I get)
There is encouraging work on a "universal flu vaccine".
But we are told "this is not the flu!"; 4/4/20, 10:41 PM
wildswan said...: It's all in a state of flux - who can really know?

In Italy some hospitals have been overwhelmed because so many people got very sick all at the same time. Then doctors got sick. And then people didn't get treated. So, not quite like flu. At the same time it wasn't all of Italy that got overwhelmed but a very specific region. There are hot spots with covid. Wuhan, Bergamo, New York Metro region. And there is a general spread of covid. Will the general spread turn into hot spots everywhere or will it creep along and fade away? How can anybody really know, as of now? I think Dr. Birx is saying that there will be some real data in another week, maybe good news, but now isn't the time to let up.

Meanwhile some people are really scared - don't be so hard on them.; 4/4/20, 10:48 PM
Narayanan said...: @Blogger sinz52 said
_________

Answer to your prayers maybe.

https://amp.reddit.com/r/tifu/comments/38ksl3/tifu_by_stealing_a_freshly_baked_pie_from_some/; 4/4/20, 10:52 PM
Narayanan said...: Blogger Ken B said...
Francisco D
I am told, here, that it’s really a plot against Trump, to destroy the Trump boom. But Trump is part of the plot it seems.
_______&&&&&&
Hopefully Trump can get his head out before noose tightens!?; 4/4/20, 11:01 PM
AllenS said...: I'm going grocery shopping Monday. Not only has nobody died from this China Flu in the county where I live, but nobody has even caught this bullshit disease.; 4/4/20, 11:25 PM
Birkel said...: Francisco D,
Welcome to the party. Ken B is a concern troll and a NeverTrump guy. He uses the term "trumpkin" as if it has meaning. He's just here to cry that the sky is falling.

Personally, I am hoping the alleged Canadian gets what he wants good and hard. If the United States economy sneezes, the ROW gets a cold. And putting the US economy on life support means the ROW is dead.; 4/4/20, 11:25 PM
Bilwick said...: Believe me, I'd like to refrain from going to the stores and stay home. At my age, without a car, and with lower back, knee and ankle problems, going to the stores is an ordeal I'd gladly forego. But given those limitations, there are only so many supplies I can shlep home during any shopping run, and inevitably supplies need to be replenished.; 4/4/20, 11:29 PM
Lurker21 said...: Reminds me of the free rider problem. So long as everybody else is locked up at home, my going to the grocery store once a week isn't going to cause the world much trouble (so long as I take the necessary precautions). I benefit from all the locking down other people are doing (as I do locking myself up and hunkering down the rest of the week). If everyone else were out and about it would be a different story. Went out for wine today, so don't hold me responsible for anything I post tonight.; 4/4/20, 11:35 PM
gadfly said...: We need to be careful about Dr. Birx's opinion when she seems over-impressed with the the White House's Mafia Don:

Dr. Deborah Birx, a respected physician and experienced diplomat who seemingly serves as a voice of reason in her role as coordinator of the White House’s coronavirus task force, raised a lot of eyebrows on Thursday with her effusive praise of President Donald Trump as “attentive to the scientific literature and the details” during an interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network.

“He’s been so attentive to the scientific literature and the details and the data,” Birx said. “I think his ability to analyze and integrate data that comes out of his long history in business has really been a real benefit during these discussions about medical issues.”; 4/4/20, 11:36 PM
Lurker21 said...: Sorry, I'm not a Mormon, so I don't have three months worth of food at home.; 4/4/20, 11:38 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: Went out for wine today, so don't hold me responsible for anything I post tonight.

I love that the liquor stores in my county are 'essential business' but the bookstore is not.; 4/4/20, 11:46 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: I mean, it's fine, it's easy enough to get reading material digitally, but it's funny.; 4/4/20, 11:47 PM
Ray - SoCal said...: The local Senior Center called my parents to see how they were doing, and if they needed anything. I thought that was very nice.; 4/5/20, 12:08 AM
Mark said...: Anyone who ever says anything positive about Trump is suspect.

And probably corrupt and evil and needs to be destroyed.; 4/5/20, 12:10 AM
Ray - SoCal said...: @Yancey Ward - Good catch on CA Testing.

Somehow 76,100 tests were recorded as done today in CA. There was a backlog of 59,500 that was reduced to 13,000.

I hope CA can keep up this through put.

Or was it just a recording issue, where a bunch of tests finally got recorded? Supposedly the pending were frozen, for later diagnostics. And the way they were done, could not be done on the faster Roche Machines.

US tests overall are increasing about 10% a day. This explains the huge boost in overall tests for the US today to reach 200,000 tests per day.

I have been surprised how far behind CA was in testing, only doing around 2,000 a day. And CA is home of the place the Roche 6800/8800 Tester was developed.

And overall deaths is not increasing at the huge rate it was. NY still has 50% of the US deaths. CA is at 3%. My guess is the tests that pending, were low priority tests. They have been pending for 11 days, so test results are the most useful. Per another blog, at an Orange County Hospital the current turn around is 5 days for testing.; 4/5/20, 12:16 AM
Ray - SoCal said...: Another blogger has been doing some great digging on the testing debacle.
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=714028479313834812&postID=4375323353102623497&page=1&token=1586064940097
ThatWouldBeTelling

And found this link (free registration required):
https://www.360dx.com/clinical-lab-management/lab-test-volumes-plummet-patients-put-care-due-covid-19

Snippets they pulled out:

This week, Quest Diagnostics filed a form 8-K in which it noted that during the last two weeks of March the company's test volumes, inclusive of COVID-19 tests, declined by more than 40 percent.

[...]

Kyle Fetter, executive vice president and general manager of diagnostic services at revenue cycle management and lab informatics firm Xifin, said that thus far, most industry layoffs and furloughs were occurring on the administrative side of the business as labs tried to maintain their clinical staff.

Fetter said his firm has seen volumes drop substantially not only for routine lab testing but also for tests that might not typically be considered elective, such as genetic tumor testing to determine patient cancer therapy, which he said had dropped around 30 percent to 35 percent since the start of the outbreak in the US.

[...]

Raich said that some labs are trying to move into SARS-CoV-2 testing to help address the broader shortfall but noted that "you can't make up that [lost] volume with just COVID-19 testing."

Additionally, it can be difficult for labs to get ahold of the instrumentation and supplies they need to start SARS-CoV-2 testing, he said.

[...]

Birenbaum similarly said that many NILA member labs were exploring SARS-CoV-2 testing but that they were running into a number of challenges.

"We have different size laboratories with different capabilities," he said. "If they are decent sized and have some of the [RT-PCR] equipment in-house already, the challenge has been, do they have equipment that is compatible with the [CDC test]?

More recently, he noted, several vendors have received FDA Emergency Use Approval for tests on their platforms. For labs with these platforms, a major challenge has been getting test kits, with some labs being told by vendors that they won't be able to get shipments of kits for two months. [Swabs, too.]

[...]

"Labs [without the equipment] are saying, well, we would [start SARS-CoV-2 testing], but we don't have the necessary capital and we're not willing to take loans out if we don't know whether we can get kits," Birenbaum said....

There are also questions about whether making capital investments makes sense given the relatively low reimbursement for the test. Pricing put out by local Medicare Administrative Contractors last month put reimbursement for the CDC test at around $36 and reimbursement for non-CDC versions at around $51.

According to some NILA member labs, "if you factor in all the capital investment and everything, the [Medicare rates] don't cover their costs," Birenbaum said.

Fetter agreed. "At the price [CMS] is going to pay for COVID-19 testing, if a lab is super efficient, they will potentially break even," he said.; 4/5/20, 12:44 AM
Freeman Hunt said...: sinz52 said...
I don't have more than a week's worth of groceries on hand. And I don't have anyone to shop for me.

Do you have a Walmart that offers grocery pickup or delivery within driving distance? If so, set an alarm and log on to check out at midnight. That is when the new times open up for the day after the next day. They only have 48 hours open at a time.

If not, send me your address, and I'll ship you some food. My name with a dot in-between at Gmail.; 4/5/20, 1:06 AM
stevew said...: I'm putting the Trump statements of optimism and the Birx/Fauci statements of pessimism next to each other and thinking about what it all means. I need something to do to keep busy.

Shelves, fridge, and freezer are stocked. We can get by for about a month.; 4/5/20, 5:51 AM
Jaq said...: "We don't have a vaccine for the seasonal flu. It kills 50k people a year,”

And we have a hospital system scaled to give those people the best shot at survival that we can.; 4/5/20, 5:53 AM
stevew said...: Is the shutdown saving the lives of Covid infected individuals that would have been lost if we hadn't shutdown?; 4/5/20, 6:04 AM
Jaq said...: You can’t model a disease for a city that depends heavily to operate on dense mass transit like NYC and then use the same parameters even for another huge city, like LA, which, as the song goes, is a "great big freeway."

There are so many unknowns that models are all but useless for predictions, but they can spell out the worst case with some degree of accuracy. So I have been giving “fog of war” leeway to the people responsible for managing this.

I posted yesterday how the CDC has started doing antibody tests both in hotspots and on a national scale of representative samples, like political polling. This will be real data. The Netherlands is finding that you can detect the seriousness of an outbreak by testing a city’s sewer system. That’s progress that we hadn’t made a month ago.

I trust that Trump wants to restart the economy as soon as possible without turning us all into New York City, and I think that has to be done with the data we are gathering.; 4/5/20, 6:05 AM
h said...: sinz52 who wants to know how to get food without going to the store. I'm sympathetic, and I have three things that would work for me:

1. I just finished getting an order from Whole Foods, using my amazon prime membership, with free delivery (and an optional $5 tip, which I opted for). I submitted the order on Saturday and there were no "delivery openings" for Sat or Sun. I checked the first thing this morning and there were multiple 2 hour windows. I chose a window, and the food was delivered 20 minutes ago on SUnday morning. It's a little more expensive.

2. I live in a suburban neighborhood, and we have a neighborhood "listserv" comprising 400 or so households in the immediate area. SOmeone there started a help your neighbor effort, and I could, if I needed to, contact them, and someone (younger and healthier than I) would come by my house, get some money and a grocery list, and deliver back.

3. I did do a big shopping trip last weeek at a local chain store that has 6-7 am hours for seniors. The store was quite empty, and I didn't have to wait in a checkout line, and it was well stocked.

4. Finally I am blessed with extraordinarily neighborly neighbors (next door, across the street). It's possible for a person to help you without directly interacting with you. A certain amount of trust is required.; 4/5/20, 8:02 AM
Anonymous said...: Somethin's happenenin' here
What it is ain't exactly clear...

At first I thought that Trump was being played by Hillary's bffs, Fauci & Birx. The Dems and the Dem media finally saw the potential of Killer Korona to at last, bring Trump down. But a couple things happened this week. Trump sent warships to Central America to deal with the Drug cartels. That would be 24/7 Dem media focus sans Killer Korona. Rumor has it that some Congress critters take money from the cartels to keep the borders open, and illegal immigration flowing. Then, IG Atkinson was fired. That would get 24/7 Dem focus sans Killer Korona.
Trump knows the Dem rule book. Never let a crisis go to waste. I think the next 2 weeks are going to see some major events, while the Dem media is laser focused on Killer Korona.; 4/5/20, 8:05 AM
Anonymous said...: sinz52.

What State do you live in? If you're within 100 miles I'll swing by and help you out. I'm itchin' for a road trip. I live in America, and we don't 'shelter in place here'.; 4/5/20, 8:11 AM
h said...: Tom Hynes notes: "the day before Easter will be a sadder day." I see what you did there.; 4/5/20, 9:04 AM
paminwi said...: sinz52: lots of us are willing to help but need to know where you live.
if you live close we can get you fresh fruit and veggies plus the non-perishables.
I’d be glad to deliver.; 4/5/20, 2:26 PM