Here's the transcript:
Speaker 16: Mr. President, more than 22 million Americans are currently unemployed as a result of this. Today we hit the grim milestone of more than 40,000 Americans now having died from the coronavirus. Can you explain then why you come out here and you were reading clips and showing clips of praise for you and for your administration? Is this really the time for self-congratulations?ADDED: Diamond brought up "the Wall Street Journal online" with Trump's "name in it" because earlier in the briefing, Trump had referred to it. This, to Diamond, was part of Trump using the press briefing to congratulate himself. Trump had said:
Donald Trump: I will tell you this. What I’m doing is I’m standing up for the men and women that have done such an incredible job, not for me, for the men and women, admirals, Vice President, if I might, but all of the men and women, thousands, tens of thousands of them, they built hospitals in New York and New Jersey and all over this country in record time. They’d throw up a thousand beds in four days. I’m sticking up for those people. Those people have been incredible. I’m also sticking up for doctors and nurses and military doctors and nurses.
Speaker 16: But the clips that you played and what you read earlier was praising you and your administration-
Donald Trump: All I played today was Governor Cuomo [crosstalk] saying very positive things about the job the federal government has done [crosstalk]. Those people have been just absolutely excoriated by some of the fake news like you. You’re CNN. You’re fake news, and let me just tell you, they were excoriated by people like you that don’t know any better because you don’t have the brains you were born with. You should be praising the people that have done a good job, not doing what you do, even that question. So just so you understand-
Speaker 16: The question is why now, sir. The question is why now, not why are you doing it, but why now?
Donald Trump: I’ll tell you why now. Are you ready? Because these people are right now in hospitals. It’s dangerous. It’s going to a battlefield, and I want these people, I want you, [crosstalk] It’s all about that. It’s not about me. [crosstalk ] Nothing’s about me. Look, you’re never going to treat me fairly, many of you, and I understand that. I don’t even know, I got here with the worst, most unfair press treatment they say in the history of the United States for a President. They did say Abraham Lincoln had very bad treatment, too. Let me just-
Speaker 16: Sir, the Wall Street Journal online I just read has your name in it. It talks about Trump’s remaking the playbook.
Donald Trump: Well, that’s a positive thing because that’s an exercise in how to do it and what to do and that’s good for the future. People can learn from that. But I want the men and women of this country that are in danger, the admirals and the generals that have done a job like they’ve never done before, they’re in war. We’re in war. You know, I call it the invisible enemy. That’s their war and it’s a dangerous war. We’re also at a level when you said 40,000 people, and you’re right, almost 40,000 people and-
Speaker 16: More than.
Donald Trump: Oh, more than, okay, good. Correct me.
Speaker 16: 41,000.
Donald Trump: Correct me. Good. Well, I’m really glad you corrected me, CNN, but here’s the story. Let me just tell you something. If we didn’t do what we did, the 40,000 right now could be a million people. It could be a million people, not 40,000. it could be a million. We’re tracking at much less than the lowest possible estimate, and that’s a great tribute to a number of people in a number of things. One of the things that it’s attributed to is what’s taken place in this country with the American people because they’ve gone inside. They’ve done it. They’ve done a job that nobody thought was possible, and in fact, when they did the models, as they call them, nobody thought it was possible. They did models not based on this kind of success. I’ve seen New York streets and I see it in the morning. I’ve watched all my life, New York streets, and you can’t even see the pavement, there’s so many people. And you take a look this morning, you take a look even on Friday morning, I looked at it. I saw it through a camera. There wasn’t a person on Fifth Avenue. There wasn’t a person on Madison Avenue. I’ve never seen anything like it because people have really listened to instructions, and they’ve listened to what we’ve had to say, and the professionals, they’ve listened, and people should really give them a lot of credit, including people like you, because you just don’t have the sense to understand what’s going on. All right. Yeah, please...
In fact, and I appreciate it very much, the Wall Street Journal wrote a fantastic piece, a highly respected gentleman, Christopher DeMuth, and this piece was just in the Wall Street Journal, weekend edition. “Trump rewrites the book on emergencies.” That’s what’s happened, too. And we, just read one paragraph. “He’s given pride of place to federalism and private enterprise, lauding the patriotism and proficiency of our fantastic governors and mayors,” meaning I do call them fantastic when it’s appropriate, “and our incredible business leaders and genius companies,” I guess I probably use those terms too, when they’re doing a good job. When they’re not doing a good job, I don’t use those terms. “Our heroic doctors and nurses and orderlies and our tremendous truckers.” They have all done good jobs. “By shouting out many of them by name and documenting their deeds on a fully daily basis, he has vivified the American way in action. Once it was reluctantly aroused,” it was hard to get it aroused, and it is hard to get it aroused, but we got it aroused. “When asked why he has not issued orders for nationwide home and business lockdowns, he has emphasized that the intensity of the epidemic varies widely and is best met by calibrated state and local judgments.” That’s the judgments of governors and local people. “And added pointedly that such steps would conflict with the Constitution."Trump stopped reading from the article at that point, I think because he does not want to concede that he lacks the constitutional power to take a top-down approach if he sees fit. Trump continues taking a bit more distance:
But very importantly, he’s just a very respected gentleman. To see this was a very nice feeling. Not for me necessarily, but for all of the people that have worked with us. I mean, they’ve worked so hard and we’ve developed tests that are so fantastic. We’ve come up with things that nobody had ever heard of and we did it during this pandemic. We did it under pressure. It’s called reaction under pressure. It’s pretty amazing what our people have done and that includes all of our military people and our CDC, just about everybody you can imagine, including Tony and Deborah, and they’ve worked long hours. There’s nobody that’s getting a lot of sleep. We’re close to finalizing, I want to thank the writer Christopher, for this article, and it’s a great article. That was frankly, at least of it what I read, it was a great article. We appreciate it.AND: Let me give you a bit more from the Wall Street Journal article:
Mr. Trump has received criticism from all sides for these measured responses. It is said, on the one hand, that he should aggressively commandeer state police powers and industrial resources to mount a uniform national response — and, on the other (sometimes by the same critics), that the crisis will sooner or later unleash the authoritarian ambitions Mr. Trump has supposedly been harboring all along...."Commandeer" is a key word in the constitutional doctrine. The federal government cannot commandeer state and local government. That is, they can be invited to enforce a federal policy (such as to do the background checks on gun buyers, at issue in the key case Printz v. United States), but they can't be forced to do the federal government's enforcement. But the federal government can simply take over in an area that has traditionally belonged to the states and do its own enforcement (assuming it has a basis for exercising federal power), and the federal government can lure states into enforcing federal programs through spending money and attaching conditions.
As the prospect of reopening the economy approaches, Mr. Trump has asserted that he is the ultimate authority. Governors are making state and regional plans, and mayors are claiming to be the deciders for reopening schools. This jousting is preliminary to a next-phase division of labor that will continue to combine practical and constitutional considerations. The federal government will issue guidelines for phased screening and social-mitigation practices by states, and attend to national priorities such as economic liquidity, air travel and increased testing capacity. States and localities will take the lead on procedures for reopening schools, churches, restaurants, offices and parks. There will be a variety of state approaches and disagreements between the states and the feds. It is shaping up to be another round of creative, knowledge-generating federalism....ALSO: We listen to all the press briefings, and we've been talking about how Trump is finding a way to use them to replace the rallies he can no longer do. During this fight with Diamond, we were saying out loud, this is better than the rallies for Trump, because he's got his opponents right there in the ring with him, and we get to see him beat them up before our eyes. And Trump haters are watching too. Presumably, they think their guy is winning and Trump is getting pummeled. What a show! And, of course, to say that is to restate Diamond's original question: Aren't you using this solemn occasion the wrong way?
[T]he administration seems intent on keeping the crisis from generating a permanent expansion of federal and executive powers. President Trump's calling himself a "wartime president" has sounded authoritarian to some of his detractors. It is better viewed in conjunction with his constant assurances that the "invisible enemy" will soon be subdued and national life returned to normal -- as a vow that his use of emergency authority will be as transitory as public-health conditions permit....
Diversified centers of authority and initiative... are the keys to resilience in the face of emergencies large and small.
Posts
318 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 318 of 318Meanwhile, why is that YOU are never in a thread about the economic devastation that these shutdowns have created? [Curious George]
The shutdowns didn't create the devastation, the presence of the coronavirus did. No one was going to go to the movies whether they were open or closed. Very few were going to a restaurant, in most of the country, whether it was open or closed. The idea that the shutdown ruined the economy misses the point that behaviors were being forced to change by an unknown virus that may have been created and spread from a Chinese lab.
Nor do we know how much of the economic destruction is lasting. A certain amount will rebound reasonably quickly, IMO. God alone knows how much that will be, though. Everyone in New York City knows someone who has died and their ages are all over the map, not just in Sebastian's old-sick-expendable category.
But Inga, I hope you find a way for all your loved ones to keep getting an unemployment check until scientists announce there is no way for anyone to ever get COVID again. Perhaps with those checks in hand, you can continue to talk about how much you, your daughter, and all of her peers are happily contributing to saving lives. That is very sensible and not at all panicky.
The shutdowns didn't create the devastation, the presence of the coronavirus did. No one was going to go to the movies whether they were open or closed. Very few were going to a restaurant, in most of the country, whether it was open or closed.
Kai, I would agree with you if you could then tell me if this is true, why shutdown orders were even necessary.
The mistake from the beginning was relying on projected numbers to either make or justify decisions. I assume one reasons the numbers were played up were to scare people into taking the threat seriously and thus following mitigation procedures, especially considering that the administration and parts of the media and social media spent the previous month downplaying any risk.
The reason models are unreliable is the same reason we needed to implement widespread mitigation efforts. We did not have a lot of reliable data, and we didn't know how applicable the data we had from abroad could be generalized to the US. That was the primary flaw of the IHME model.
The most reliable assumptions we could make were: the virus is highly infectious, asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission was possible, it had a relatively long incubation period, and at least some of those infections resulted in serious illness or death in otherwise healthy individuals.
On top of that we had some historical data on how the virus spread and presented in places like China, South Korea, and Italy. However, we also knew the countries were taking steps in various ways to slow the spread, so these efforts had to be taken into account. China and Italy instituted lockdowns. South Korea cancelled schools and implemented some regional curfews but otherwise did not restrict movement. They did mass testing, made real-time testing data available nationwide, quarantined the sick, and did contact tracing for the people who were positive.
Since the US did not have reliable testing or enough tests, the South Korea strategy was not an option. Given the potential threat and with no way to quickly and reliably identify those infected and where they were, there was no option left but to implement widespread social distancing and wait until we had more data about how the virus was presenting here.
“But Inga, I hope you find a way for all your loved ones to keep getting an unemployment check until scientists announce there is no way for anyone to ever get COVID again. Perhaps with those checks in hand, you can continue to talk about how much you, your daughter, and all of her peers are happily contributing to saving lives. That is very sensible and not at all panicky.”
My daughter who is an attorney is working from home, my daughter who is a stay at home mom, is staying at home. Her husband continues to run his manufacturing plant, which is a huge space with few workers who work in shifts and wear masks. My oldest daughter is a Navy Chief and has been involved in the care of military members who have Covid. So my immediate loved ones won’t be drawing unemployment. I’m 68 years old and get SS and have savings, I’m fine thanks.
I suggest you go out and protest and stand next to the other fools who are yelling stupid slogans at the top of their lungs. Prove how brave you are oh freedom lover.
Farmer- I agree with much of what you've just said. I believe we did more than "widespread social distancing", but I'll let that go.
The problem that we have now, as many have said, is the fear a lot of people have about pushing past this phase.
I would love to know, for example, if people who at one time thought the only way forward is to test everyone every day still feels that way? Do people really need to hear there is no chance they will get this disease in order to move forward?
I sincerely hope the people around me who actively embrace the "no paint no seeds no traveling to your own home" orders will similarly support the governor when she finally climbs down, with the assumption that she has their best interest at heart.
Of course, that makes me fear a future with people who are so easily driven to fear that they will take any order the government gives them, but I'll have let that play out, too.
Never mind that, and I'm sure Dr. Mike will correct me if I'm wrong, the whole point of these mitigation measures was to reduce rate, because extent is impossible to control. Presuming that is true, to near as makes no difference, the only real discussion is when people die of Mao Tse Lung, not if.
The original purpose was to spread out the cases so hospitals were not overwhelmed.
Now, it seems that Democrat Governors are in love with the power to stop people from buying seeds or playing golf or going to the beach.
In the beginning no one, including Trump, knew how this was going to go,. The hysterical models were scaring everyone.
Now, we have a number of experiences to guide plans. Old and high risk people should stay out of public place with close proximity.
Young people are at much lower risk and should go back to work. Mass transit, like subways and probably airplanes, are dangerous.
Eventually we will have a useful vaccine and those at high risk can be immunized. Vaccine for low risk people is optional unless they are in a high risk occupation like ER docs and nurses. Certainly nursing home staff will need vaccination.
If you are exposed and are high risk, take HCQ. Cytokine storm happens with the flu.
“Kai, I would agree with you if you could then tell me if this is true, why shutdown orders were even necessary.”
Because of fools like you.
I suggest you go out and protest and stand next to the other fools who are yelling stupid slogans at the top of their lungs. Prove how brave you are oh freedom lover.
I have never protested anything and probably never will. But I do leave my house. I have never claimed to be brave, although I am not afraid.
I'm glad to know your daughters and all of their peers have not lost jobs nor faced laying people off and they have never lost their patience with the shut down. It's a really wonderful outcome for all of them.
Oh! I'm also happy for you that your son in law's manufacturing plant was deemed an essential business by the governor so he could continue to run it.
“Do people really need to hear there is no chance they will get this disease in order to move forward?”
No, but that is what you’d like to believe. You are pushing the notion that the “panickers!” don’t want to resume a normal life again. That is dishonest and sort of weird actually.
“Oh! I'm also happy for you that your son in law's manufacturing plant was deemed an essential business by the governor so he could continue to run it.”
Yes, it hasn’t been easy to keep it going either.
Inga- you said earlier that people could keep getting unemployment until a scientist said they couldn't get COVID. If that isn't what you meant to say, please correct me. I'm not being dishonest, but perhaps I misunderstood.
Yes, it hasn’t been easy to keep it going either.
Well, I'm glad he never let that get him down and he never complained about it. Nor did any of his peers. That's great.
Inga, Remember on election day that Trump did more to stop the spread than any other person on the planet. First with his travel bans and later with his panic response that you love so much, and let's not forget his support for trying the untested drugs that save lives. Most Democrats including Biden were against all that. You can't vote for some crazy cornpop denier when you have your hero right there on the ballot. Welcome to the dark side.
“But I do leave my house.”
Congratulations. So do I, so does Althouse, so do thousands of people who are social distancing despite what you are trying to portray them as doing, such as hiding in their homes wearing masks.
"No, but that is what you’d like to believe. You are pushing the notion that the “panickers!” don’t want to resume a normal life again. That is dishonest and sort of weird actually."
O.k, I'll play. What is the metric the left is comfortable with reopening the country with? 0 new infections? 0 deaths? Only when a magical vaccine has been developed and deployed in great supply in all 50 states?
They keep pretending those who want to reopen only care about money. O.k,so what is the ideal number for reopening? Asking for a friend.
Kai, I would agree with you if you could then tell me if this is true, why shutdown orders were even necessary. [MayBee]
SOME of the shutdown orders were considered necessary because of the medical concerns that we avoid overload like Wuhan and Italy.
Some of the shutdown orders were necessary because political leaders felt a responsibility to protect innocent lives from an unpredictable and previously unknown attack -- it still seems to me to be like a slow-motion atomic bomb. Shutting down some activities was meant to protect the majority from the possible reckless or ignorant behaviors of a minority.
The degree of second-guessing here seems awfully high, to me. MayBee, if you were a governor of a populous state, faced with something that was killing many thousands of people in other countries, could you have rolled the dice and decided you just were not going to believe the medical advisers? This is not a situation we get every year. This is not a situation I can remember seeing in my lifetime. The shutdown orders were given fast because action had to be taken fast.
Were they all right? Probably not. But no one had put in a plan for this before.
So Inga what should we do for, say, my friend A. who works/worked for a hotel as an events coordinator. She frequently says things on social media like I just can’t imagine ever being in a group of people again. You never know when this might come back!
Is that an A. problem and she needs to either deal or starve, or should we pay her with Magic Money to stay home forever?
Todd said...
So yes, I do believe there ARE people that are one paycheck from financial ruin. Choices have consequences. Most (not all but most) situations can be improved by making better choices.
I would agree there are such people. And as you noted, a choice has been made to live that way. My point is that the media conflates them with those who are actually in a difficult situation not of their own making, in order to make things seem worse than they really are. And I think that's dishonest.
I was not in favor of Trump during the 2016 election, but in all honesty, I could never vote for someone like Hillary. But I’ve never seen any POTUS that could do a Q & A like Trump and have a grasp of every question asked without using notes. WOW! He is killing the Press and they don’t even know it yet. I now believe we lucked out with Trump in this pandemic. Imagine Obama or Biden in charge - WOW. Trump knows how to bring back the economy in a way that Obama couldn't. Trump has the confidence and optimism of Reagan and no help from the media. A more establishment Republican would hesitate before committing to a large government program. Trump has no qualms about it. As a former businessman, Trump also set corporations free to help. In the end, only time will allow us to understand Trump and his current actions. No one is infallible at this level.
True. Hospitals in New York came perilously close to being overwhelmed.
Yes, like I said. NOT overwhelmed. Not even close to it in most counties. Leave NY out of stats (because they acted stupidly) and the numbers are even better than Germany's results. This is what I predicted and was shouted down by you panic people. It isn't DISTANCE SAVED US but NOT distancing killed NYC. They fucked up. They skew the stats. I told you we had excess capacity and would adapt and we would still have dorms and other places if we run out of hospital beds. You people said I wanted people to die. Panic kills more people and the longer we stay in a dead economy the more stress and panic will take hold. We will NOT overwhelm the system so let's get going and develop herd immunity now that the wave has passed.
Also, what Gk1 says. No one I’ve asked has ever answered the question of when is it “safe” to expect normal engagement in society from people again. It’s like obscenity. They know it when they see it. Until then, just keep writing checks. From public resources which are evidently unlimited.
Congratulations. So do I, so does Althouse, so do thousands of people who are social distancing despite what you are trying to portray them as doing, such as hiding in their homes wearing masks.
OK then why did you call me a fool?
“Is that an A. problem and she needs to either deal or starve, or should we pay her with Magic Money to stay home forever?”
Who is suggesting we social distance forever? This all or nothing approach isn’t what Trump is advocating and it isn’t what the Governors are advocating. Stop panicking about it, or else you’ll be labeled a PANICKER!
“OK then why did you call me a fool?”
Because of the many foolish things you’ve said on this thread.
Maybee (various comments above): well said. Props to you for common sense. And for perhaps-too-subtle sarc!
Inga, never mind. I thought you could read and grasp two or three sentences and answer responsively but I guess not. My fault.
“The degree of second-guessing here seems awfully high, to me. MayBee, if you were a governor of a populous state, faced with something that was killing many thousands of people in other countries, could you have rolled the dice and decided you just were not going to believe the medical advisers? This is not a situation we get every year. This is not a situation I can remember seeing in my lifetime. The shutdown orders were given fast because action had to be taken fast.”
Great question! I’d like to see what Maybee and others like her suggest they would have done instead.
“Inga, never mind. I thought you could read and grasp two or three sentences and answer responsively but I guess not. My fault.”
Some comments are not worth taking seriously.
Pants, we are never going to get an answer from the left on the idea metric on when its "safe" to get back to work. It changes hourly and seems to be based on something other than logic. Like a "feeling" or an opinion poll done on CNN.
“Pants, we are never going to get an answer from the left on the idea metric on when its "safe" to get back to work.”
Why are you even asking the “left”? Why aren’t you asking Trump and his science advisors? You expect more from average everyday liberals than you do of your President.
Kai- you said people weren't going to restaurants and movie theaters and that's what closed them. Not a governor's order.
So I guess I would say....maybe we could have seen what else people themselves responded to, without governors orders. Maybe businesses and stores could have found a way to stay open or operating, rather than being shut down by government fiat. Maybe we could have found a way to social distance more, quarantine less.
As for listening to my medical professionals, I don't know what medical professional told my governor that my business field was not essential. I don't know what medical professional told her my father in law with cancer couldn't occasionally travel to his other home 45 minutes away where he'd not need to encounter anyone else.
But no, in general, I don't think we need to make it a practice to listen to the most hysterical medical professionals.
Yes, sometimes I think you have to roll the dice and bend toward giving people information and liberty.
The reason models are unreliable is the same reason we needed to implement widespread mitigation efforts. We did not have a lot of reliable data, and we didn't know how applicable the data we had from abroad could be generalized to the US. That was the primary flaw of the IHME model.
That being said, and I've heaped criticism on the models as well, BUT (see that's a big but) it does look like the last revisions that put the low end death result at 60,000 is going to be very close if not in the expected range. If what Fauci and Trump said is true, that the unexpected response to social distancing needed to be factored in at least twice to get the numbers right, then that means the collective "we" did it. My observation on the east coast the week of 3/10 showed widespread knowledge of and adherence to known guidelines. People I met with did fist bump or fake bump, Purell was everywhere, and the subject came up in every encounter.
The stay-at-home orders given later were followed closely in CA because our Gov. shut down a lot of retail. But really, people were out and about every day, at the same time practicing social distance and masks, especially recently when it became state law to be masked in public -- for now. So I don't think there was a lot of extreme mitigation except among affected groups and people out of work. And yet, the worst spots are only those cities that openly flaunted guidelines with public transport or public parties. People who use public transportation hardest hit.
So I give the mitigation qualified kudos for success. And I'd like to know more about that herd immunity they are finding in Santa Clara County. So many interesting stories to write if only our media could get out of gotcha mode.
MayBee, that's a lot of maybes!
So Kai, when we go go back to requiring people to work (and thus encounter risk, covid and otherwise) in order to get money?
Is there a day when we say “yes it’s possible if you go to work you could get covid but you need to go anyway if you want to get paid,” or do we say anyone who feels unsafe can stay on unemployment as long as they feel it’s not safe to go out?
I’m not saying you’ve been arguing otherwise, but asking if you or anyone has an answer.
Before we had a SAH order here we went to the mall to pick up a new router. At least 90% of the stores were closed already. Because no one wanted to go to a mall due to the virus. On the Main Street it wasn’t 90% but it was at least half closed. Trips were being canceled. We canceled ours. We stopped going to the gym before the SAH, and it was sparse compared to normal the last day we went. Most of economic stoppage was pre SAH.
The virus isn’t a normal blip in the economy or the flu season. It’s an invasion, Mars attacks if you like. And that hit the economy very hard before any SAH orders.
A question I've been thinking a lot about recently: what do we do if restrictions are widely relaxed, and symptomatic cases start moving upwards?
Farmer: “
A question I've been thinking a lot about recently: what do we do if restrictions are widely relaxed, and symptomatic cases start moving upwards?”
Which is exactly the question Trump's guidelines address. So we know the Trump position. Will states stick to them? I think so, mostly, but there might be a few that don’t. Then we see if Trump will try to exercise powers he hasn’t got.
I think there is a real risk of a yo yo though. Open too fast, see an increase, clamp down too hard, repeat. That's the main reason I l8ke Trump's guidelines: they look designed to avoid the yo yo. I hope, anyway.
"A question I've been thinking a lot about recently: what do we do if restrictions are widely relaxed, and symptomatic cases start moving upwards?"
I guess we just shut everything down until we all starve or until Trump is out of office. Of course there will be more infections probably more deaths but the only metric I can get from anyone is we can't reopen until we have 0 infections of 0 deaths.
Farmer: suck it up and move on? What other choice do we have? And no, paying people from the magic money bucket to not work is not actually an option.
I note no one has, yet again, answered my 2:45/2:47 question.
For the record, I’m persuadable. I try to be aware of my biases and keep an open mind. But no one has yet even tried to explain this.
"But no one has yet even tried to explain this."
"Flattening the curve" was clearly not the reason for the shutdown. Even if you're given one (those goalposts aren't going to shift themselves) I doubt the next reason will be any more honest than the first.
“ For the record, I’m persuadable.”
Nice to see we can still make jokes.
He’s no more of a panic-er than us people that have been labeled PANIC-ERS!
I think you people who are really big panicers
For the love of God, it's spelled panickers, with a K!
Geez.
I agree with RMc, Inga. They are panickers.
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...
"I note no one has, yet again, answered my 2:45/2:47 question."
We aren't likely to get one either, Pants. I know when I ask my favorite lefty jousting partners they get real quiet. They are now warning me of the "inevitable inflection of those who will get infected or die after the lockdown is relaxed and can I live with that?" So I am asking as well "O.k what circumstances can we reopen? 0 deaths, 0 infections?" and am met with crickets.
"So I am asking as well "O.k what circumstances can we reopen? 0 deaths, 0 infections?" and am met with crickets."
But of course. Prohibiting people from doing anything except what the government mandates is the progressive dream. They like things the way they are.
MayBee - thanks for your measured responses. I would say that the shut down is ensuring economic collapse if it continues. I propose we allow people who want to work and be out in public be allowed to do that, and people who are afraid to go out stay home. That way the people who believe this is going to kill everyone will be the only ones left and they can say "I told you so" or they will realize it wasn't as bad as it has been portrayed and can come out safely. That is a win win to me - neither side is forcing the other to act in accordance with something they don't believe. Kind of the definition of freedom IMHO. What say you?
“I agree with RMc, Inga. They are panickers.”
Panicker gives me a spelling error red underline. Panic-er doesn’t. Hmmm, which one is correct?
Illinois bonds are at junk bond status. The state has no way to raise revenue. Businesses are shuttered and people are out of work. Illinois is bankrupted faster than projected because of the greed of Illinois' Democratics.
Specifically, Chicago's Democratics have written laws in such a way that Illinois can not possibly cover its debts. The pensioners who used to believe the promises of the Illinois legislature, especially the largely Democratic state employees will not get their full pensions. They cannot. The money does not exist.
The same will happen in NYC. In Connecticut. In Rhode Island. And probably a few other Democratic-controlled states. Handouts will not be forthcoming. That money also does not exist.
We are not ants. We don't GAF about the grasshoppers.
But don't worry about the failure of the Leftist Collectivist societal models. I'm sure it was all due to hoarders and wreckers.
Why are you even asking the “left”? Why aren’t you asking Trump and his science advisors? You expect more from average everyday liberals than you do of your President.
Nobody should ask the left because we know you are not acting in good faith. You and your lefty Governors are hoping a real depression could get Trump out of office. You care only about your power and the graft collected by your politicians.
I don't mean your power, as you are just a useful idiot but you follow like sheep when the Pelosis and Schumers are collecting their Chinese benefits. How do you think Pelosi and Feinstein;'s husbands got their millions ? How did the Clinton end up with their millions ? Not even ripping off Haiti got them more than a couple million. That was chump change. Maybe not for Hugh Rodham but Hunter Biden hit the big time.
@I Have Misplaced My Pants:
Is there a day when we say “yes it’s possible if you go to work you could get covid but you need to go anyway if you want to get paid,” or do we say anyone who feels unsafe can stay on unemployment as long as they feel it’s not safe to go out?
Basically when we can get the R0 below 1. Or if we can good data on what the infection rate based on antibody studies. Ease the restrictions on the least vulnerable, continue with feasible mitigation policies (e.g. no large groups inside, keep schools closed, staggered shifts at work, or telecommuting when possible).
And no, paying people from the magic money bucket to not work is not actually an option.
It very much is an option and one that is relatively easy to implement. Send people money. It's hilarious that we have a president who supposedly ran on populism who has used what you call "magic money" to pay for tax cuts on high earners, massive increases in defense spending, and unfunded mandatory spending. But when it comes to supporting vulnerable American workers, the spigot gets turned off.
“I propose we allow people who want to work and be out in public be allowed to do that, and people who are afraid to go out stay home.”
That’s what I proposed wayyyyy upstream.
Ok Inga then you should have no problem with the people protesting the stay at home orders in Brookfield and in Madison this week...glad to hear it! I must have missed that comment of yours - it had sounded as though you thought everyone should be following Evers guidelines until he felt like changing them. Good to know we agree.
“Ok Inga then you should have no problem with the people protesting the stay at home orders in Brookfield and in Madison this week...glad to hear it!”
I have no problem with them infecting each other.
It very much is an option and one that is relatively easy to implement.
Sigh. Aiight.
So the people who want to stay home don't get paid, just like, you know, always, right?
Or are we going to pay them Monopoly money to sit home and watch Netflix?
Am I talking to adults here?
lb said...
Yes, I pretty much agree. I don't mind a bit of a slow start though, with social distancing guidelines. I think we need to have a keen eye on whether there is an upswing in cases again. And I think people who are vulnerable need to have a safety net to stay protected since they shouldn't go back out into the world right now.
I do think there will be a little hump of fear when we start back up again.
Inga- that is what you said, but with the addiction that anyone who didn't feel safe would continue to get unemployment until scientists declared you could not get COVID.
AGAIN:
States are bankrupt and cannot raise money with bond issuance to pay current promises.
Let's shut down all businesses and make promises of Magic Money.
A question I’ve asked is what are we to do while we continue to have no proven effective treatment, no vaccine, and no herd immunity? Some models literally suggest on-again/off-again lockdowns until 2022. One model for the UK had at least 2/3rds of the time from April 2020 to November 2021 dedicated to lockdowns, with a grand total of 6 periods of relaxed measures lasting no more than a month at a time. Anyone with a lick of sense should know instinctively that that’s not sustainable. We cannot pretend we can keep this up until someone declares “all clear!”
And for anyone who suggests that the only option we had in mid-to-late March involved mandatory shutdowns of all nonessential business: Sweden. Sure, of course, there are caveats with the Swedish example, but they’ve nevertheless seen the curve flattening, and since they don’t have such strict measures to relax, they have less chance of a sudden rebound in new cases and deaths. Even though I thought at the time that the Bay Area counties’ “shelter-in-place” and California’s statewide “stay-at-home” orders were overkill, I didn’t really resent our mostly well-intentioned officials for imposing them. But they were never the only reasonable options, and as time wears on their cost will outweigh whatever modest benefit we’ve gained from them.
Some people might be foolhardy and go too far out on a limb and get sick. We know now we can handle that. But we have to support them. America was built on daring people going into the Northwest Territories and taking on danger. Built on people daring to come here in the first place. It wasn't always smart.
But we should support the people who are a little brave, no? Even if what they are doing scares people?
“Inga- that is what you said, but with the addiction that anyone who didn't feel safe would continue to get unemployment until scientists declared you could not get COVID.”
——————————————-
“Inga- do you see no middle ground between: illegal to go to work, illegal to buy paint at the store, illegal to go to your own home in the same state and 'gather in crowds'? Do you think those are the only options?”
“I’d say lift all enforced mitigation. Let the people go! and let’s see what happens. Those who feel they should self distance some more should be allowed to do so with unemployment benefits until a time that the scientists think it’s safe for EVERYONE to go back to pre pandemic days.That’s one option anyway.”
4/20/20, 12:07 PM
Yes indeed, unemployment benefits until the SCIENTISTS deem it safe. Not some yahoo with signs yelling slogans in the street.
In hindsight, don't we need to be a little grateful to those kids who went out to the beaches for spring break, or the people who went to Mardi Gras? Their respective states handled it. Those were two big experiments and Florida and Louisiana handled it.
until the SCIENTISTS deem it safe
I'm curious how this would work. Which scientists? How safe?
The same SCIENTISTS who can’t decide if 11 million or 60,000 people are going to die? Those SCIENTISTS?
What about the SCIENTISTS who disagree? Which ones do we listen to?
Is there a day when we say “yes it’s possible if you go to work you could get covid but you need to go anyway if you want to get paid,” or do we say anyone who feels unsafe can stay on unemployment as long as they feel it’s not safe to go out?[MisplacedMyPants]
If I were Governor..... Following the phases as outlined by Trump's staff, I would be making it as voluntary as possible once the new cases have fallen to the lower end of the bell curve.
Every company is its own world. Each has to make its own solutions and rules. Americans are good at improvising. If I were governor, I would be trying to extend unemployment for the cases where the company and the employees just can't agree. No company is going to give an ultimatum that loses a third of its workforce. I thought lb's comment at 3:52 was pretty good, too.
Birkel at 3:56 is right that many states are a mess, financially. The federal government is only a little bit better off. Their profligacy has been building up for decades. Now it looks like the bill is coming due all at once. I'm not saying anything we don't all know; but it will be hard to separate cause-and-effect, now, and many, many governors are going to beg for federal bailouts because they have thrown promises of money around to buy votes for so effing long. It will all be because of the virus that they need a bailout, of course.
Companies have no idea where the post-crisis business equilibrium will be, either. Someone earlier on in this discussion said he'd probably never go back to a movie theater. It's a new world, it's going to have new rules.
Pants and Maybee:
Let those who have independent means like Inga and her kids stay home. No worries. Let people who don't decide if they want to eat or take a chance in the outside world. Isn't the incubation period 2 weeks? We should be seeing all those people who voted sick relatively soon. It won't be long before we are either all dead and they can do whatever they want, or they will realize they are wrong and join the rest of us in the real world. No magic money bucket...
IHMMP and MayBee and others, you are wasting your time and energy wrestling with pigs. That "group" of posters (who I have blocked using the browser kill-file plug-in) is NOT interested in any sort of honest debate or discussion. They are all playing a got-cha game of lefty Calvanball where you can not only NEVER win but you can't even get a honest hearing. The word-play and dishonest positioning, along with the twisting of words and the taking of things out of context all make any sort of reasoned discussion impossible. They are NOT here to discuss. They are here to disrupt and to derail. Nothing more, nothing less. Their positions on a topic will shift with the progressive wind. We were ALWAYS at war with Eastasia. There are so many other honest posters to have reasoned discussions with and to actually learn from.
Please feel free [I an't the boss of no one] to tilt at windmills but there are "options". Ignoring fools is a powerful option. Just consider it. Thanks.
@Misplaced Pants, I have it on good authority from my brother-in-law’s sister’s friend’s daughter’s endocrinologist that we’ll need to be on lockdown till the end of the year, at least!
“There is already enough data to suggest that a widespread laissez-faire is just a dangerous gamble with human life. Sweden is experiencing a higher death toll than its neighbouring countries. While the Scandinavian countries reported their first fatalities at roughly the same time, at the start of April Sweden had 239 fatalities, now they have 1,540, a 6-fold increase in just under 3 weeks. Meanwhile Denmark has had a 3-fold increase in deaths during they time and Norway 2-fold. In pure per capita terms, the three countries have around the same rate of total infections but Sweden’s mortality rate is much higher, and higher again compared to neighbouring Finland.
And whilst the curve of new infections is starting to flatten in Norway, Finland and Denmark, Sweden’s new infection rate is still rising at a faster rate than its neighbours.
There are now alarming reports, including in the Washington Post, that the virus has spread to one-third of nursing homes in the capital Stockholm, resulting in rising fatalities. There is also little indication that the Swedish economy has weathered the coronavirus economic storm any better than comparable countries.
The drop in the Swedish stock market and the rise in unemployment are approximately in line with other advanced economies. According to their own estimates, Sweden’s economists predict that their GDP is expected to contract by 3.4% in 2020, certainly better than the 5.5% average decline projected for the euro zone (dragged down by Italy and Spain), but a lot worse than the 2.9% decline projected for the US economy.”
https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/swedens-massive-public-health-gamble-is-failing
@I Have Misplaced My Pants:
So the people who want to stay home don't get paid, just like, you know, always, right?
Or are we going to pay them Monopoly money to sit home and watch Netflix?
It would be too cumbersome for some kind of vetting mechanism. The simplest thing to do is just make a series of cash payments to Americans over 18 and under 65.
What about the SCIENTISTS who disagree? Which ones do we listen to?
Granted this wasn't addressed to me, and I take your point, but it's worth pointing out that the questions we will be asking ourselves are fundamentally different from the questions we were asking a couple of months ago. We will have a lot of local data, including antibody testing. We will not have to rely on the assumptions from limited data.
Thanks Kai and lb. good comments.
@Kyjo:
@Misplaced Pants, I have it on good authority from my brother-in-law’s sister’s friend’s daughter’s endocrinologist that we’ll need to be on lockdown till the end of the year, at least!
I do't know who "we" is, but there won't be a national strategy. It will need to be made regionally, likely with states working in tandem with their neighbors.
@Birkel:
AGAIN:
States are bankrupt and cannot raise money with bond issuance to pay current promises.
Let's shut down all businesses and make promises of Magic Money.
Fiscal support needs to come from the federal government and should be distributed to individuals.
“...like Inga and her kids stay home.”
My daughter the Navy Chief has never stayed home. She is involved of the care of Covid military patients.
@Kai Akker:
The federal government is only a little bit better off. Their profligacy has been building up for decades. Now it looks like the bill is coming due all at once.
This is NOT true. The US has good fiscal institutions, strong taxing authority, and tons of productive capacity. We are nowhere near a bill "coming due." We can easily handle a much higher debt load.
We've spent trillions in "magic money" just in the last three years, and no one has batted an eye. With low borrowing costs and low commodity prices, now is an excellent time to increase spending.
Kai and Birkel...yes I agree - the bill is coming due. Staying home and expecting someone to rescue us is untenable. I'm personally fine taking the risk - happy to work, go to the movies, bars, restaurants, etc. Use care and social distancing. My original understanding was that the lock down was to extend the curve so we could ensure medical system not being overwhelmed. It certainly isn't overwhelmed in Wisconsin - they are laying off medical personnel at local hospitals. So let's get going and get this behind us. We aren't going to convince people of anything medically - there's too much conflicting info. Let those people willing to go out be the canaries. I volunteer.
Owen - ;-)
“Let those people willing to go out be the canaries. I volunteer.”
I agree. Good idea.
Thanks Todd...duly noted :))
The president just said Americans should continue social distancing!
"We've spent trillions in "magic money" just in the last three years, and no one has batted an eye"
Thats just precious. I'm pretty sure many of us have been screeching this during GW Bush, TARP I, II, Obamacare along with 8 trillion dollars of new Obama spending. Yeah, throw Trump's last 3 years in no one's stopping you, Im pretty sure I've screeched about that. But now this spending is just find and dandy and we can spend more? You are the most curious "libertarian" i've ever read.
I agree with the President. Social distancing is great! Let's open up the restaurants with tables further apart, let's open up parks and ask people to be respectful of distance! Let's make the government remove the sand they dumped in the skateparks so kids can go outside and play. Let's let garden centers open so that they can sell seeds and mulch. In other words, let's get on with our economic lives with care.
Trump, you old panicker, you’re going to give some people here a nervous breakdown.
@Farmer, I was making a joke about scientists making the call.
@Inga, quit the fucking pandemic porn, you twisted freak. Sweden has done far better than Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, the UK, or the Netherlands while managing to flatten to curve without shutting down schools and all “nonessential” business. Meanwhile, their healthcare system hasn’t been overwhelmed, and that, after all, was the whole POINT of flattening the curve. They’ll be better positioned for economic recovery, they’ll be able to do it sooner because they aren’t overextending the timeframe of the epidemic, and they’ll also be at less risk of a sudden upsurge in new cases and deaths, since they don’t have such strict measures to relax. The Swedes have taken virtually the only scientifically sensible approach in Western world, but you feel the need to make it sound like they’ve turned into Bergamo or NYC.
Trump is an executive and we are lucky to have one as the Executive!
“@Inga, quit the fucking pandemic porn, you twisted freak.”
Well! I never!
"The same SCIENTISTS who can’t decide if 11 million or 60,000 people are going to die? Those SCIENTISTS?"
Pants, See how disingenuous they are? Lazy appeals to authority that never address the central issue. You start asking slightly hard questions about what metric they will allow to let people leave their homes and they spread an ink cloud and try to jet away like a squid.
Kyjo...great analysis and spot on.
@Gk1:
But now this spending is just find and dandy and we can spend more? You are the most curious "libertarian" i've ever read.
I have never been a libertarian and in fact have contempt for libertarianism. And I have never complained about deficits. It's a total boogeyman argument used by the opposition as a cudgel against the party in power. All that Ron Paul stuff about us being "bankrupt" or "owned by China" is nonsense. Spending cuts, austerity, or balanced budget amendments are all a terrible idea. Excess debt as a cause of inflation is a monetarist fairy tale. Look at Reagan's economic policy in his first term. Did he pursue "fiscal conservatism?" No, and would've been foolish to do so. He cut taxes and did a military buildup, both of which were financed through more debt.
J Farmer,
You are financially illiterate.
My bad, you are a "money tree" economist. Got it. You seemed reasonable on other threads but this is good to keep in mind.
J Farmer,
You are financially illiterate.
@Gk1, I shared on Facebook the Spiked interview with Dr. John Lee, and an MD friend of mine immediately dismissed it with, “A pathologist is not a virologist. And if he’s looking for proof, not correlation, he’s in the wrong field.”
Smug,
You further evidence no idea what "monetarist" means.
This is NOT true. The US has good fiscal institutions, strong taxing authority, and tons of productive capacity. We are nowhere near a bill "coming due." We can easily handle a much higher debt load.
Uh huh. Right. Yeah. You want that $10,000 check, Farmer!
This is why half the country likes Trump, and half the country hates him. That ratio won't change. So why not give the half that likes him something to smile at? Beating up on CNN is like kicking chihuahuas, but the little ankle-biters have it coming.
@Birkel:
J Farmer,
You are financially illiterate.
Devastating rebuttal as always, Birkel
I am not here to fix your ignorance.
We can negotiate a reasonable rate for private tutorials.
Macro, or micro, or both.
Otherwise, I will observe what is obvious.
Gk1:
My bad, you are a "money tree" economist. Got it. You seemed reasonable on other threads but this is good to keep in mind.
Modern Monetary Theory goes to far, as all theories must do, considering the level of complexity their attempting to conceptualize, but it makes a compelling case against a lot of mainstream economic thinking, particularly in regards to the effectiveness of fiscal policy and inflation.
@Kai Akker:
Uh huh. Right. Yeah. You want that $10,000 check, Farmer!
Don't need it. But as an aside, given the recent attention to the failure of models, consider the abysmal track record of economic models. Not a single economist alive can accurately predict economic downturns above the level of random guessing.
@Birkel:
I am not here to fix your ignorance.
We can negotiate a reasonable rate for private tutorials.
Macro, or micro, or both.
Otherwise, I will observe what is obvious.
That's a relief. For what it's worth, my assumptions are twofold: (1) debt-to-GDP ratio has no predictive power; (2) bond markets cannot force "discipline" or a default on the United States
Oh great, you think two things that monetarists don't believe are not true.
Great job.
You're ignorant.
Farmer: A question I've been thinking a lot about recently: what do we do if restrictions are widely relaxed, and symptomatic cases start moving upwards?
So long as the infection rate stays below system capacity, it doesn't matter.
This is all about rate, not extent. Unless you want to put a boot on the throat of our economy until a magic vaccine or treatment becomes available — whenever that might be — then an increase in rate just doesn't matter. Those who will survive regardless of treatment will survive, those will die will die, and those who will survive because of treatment will survive because the treatment is available.
Inga:
How much are you willing to pay for Quality Adjusted Life Year?
@Birkel:
Oh great, you think two things that monetarists don't believe are not true.
Great job.
"Don't believe are not true" is interesting construction. I made no claim about my assumptions and their relation to monetarism. I will withdraw the adjective "monetarist." I was referring only to the purported effect that the Fed monetizing debt will increase the money supply and thus the risk of inflation.
I won't stop loving your ignorance.
I cannot do it.
@Birkel:
I won't stop loving your ignorance.
I cannot do it.
Yes, I imagine that anonymously posting comments on blogs about how smart and superior you are is reflective of what a fulfilled life you must have.
We can negotiate a reasonable rate for private tutorials.
You really ought to offer it for free given that it was off the back of my family's labor that your deadbeat parents were able to put food in your mouth and clothes on your back. You can think of it as paying it forward ;)
Why in the world would lashing out at me for pointing to your ignorance possibly do anything but make me pity you further? Do you honestly think you can get my goat? Do you think based on what you can discern from my comments that I care one tinker's damn what Smug thinks about me and my worth as a human?
You're cramped thinking is amusing.
And your efforts at insults reflect poorly on you.
But I guess what you have is a sense of unearned superiority. Perhaps we can call it a certain Smugness.
@Birkel:
I care one tinker's damn what Smug thinks about me and my worth as a human?
You wrote more here than any other time you've commented. I figure if you're only interest is slinging insults, I might as well oblige.
You're cramped thinking is amusing.
You would know.
And your efforts at insults reflect poorly on you.
I'll live.
But I guess what you have is a sense of unearned superiority. Perhaps we can call it a certain Smugness.
I'll grant you smug, but it's earned superiority. All I do is write what I think. You're the one who is seemingly compelled to lash out at people and insult them for having a different opinion. It's unsurprising you're so sensitive to "unearned superiority."
Have a good evening, Birkel. You're always entertaining. And I'm happy I can provide you with so much material.
But you didn't insult me.
Do you know why?
But you didn't insult me.
Do you know why?
I used it as a noun not a verb.
Do you know why?
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