President Trump’s wish to open up the country by Easter and avoid a nationwide shelter-at-home policy is understandable. After all, a Covid-19-induced recession will cause its own serious health problems — depression; suicides; the damage stress will cause to those with heart disease, diabetes and other conditions, not to mention the effects of growing poverty....This is very helpful. This is the kind of talk we need right now. By contrast, I've heard quite a few commentators interpret Trump's idea of opening things up by Easter to mean that he wants to crowd the pews of churches on Easter! That's not the idea. The reopening will be done slowly and carefully, and it will not be a sudden return to the old way of living.
A nationwide shelter-in-place or quarantine should take place for the next eight to 10 weeks.... During the eight weeks of shelter-in-place, the federal government needs to produce and distribute enough tests so state and local health officials can check as many people as possible.... State and local health department[s] then need to deploy thousands of teams to trace contacts of all new Covid-19 cases... The national quarantine would give hospitals time to stock up on supplies and equipment.... States should use blood tests to certify people who have had Covid-19, are immune and are no longer contagious....
Slowly open the economy and social activities.... Lifting restrictions could start with children and young adults... Parents should be allowed to assess the risk that their children could become infected with the coronavirus and bring it home.... If the initial opening works, we should allow people in offices to go back to work in places where Covid-19 infections have died down. Businesses need to require workers to follow rules on physical distancing with fellow workers and customers.... We would then open museums and other venues to small numbers of people...
March 29, 2020
"We Can Safely Restart the Economy in June... Get tough now. Test widely to isolate those infected, and slowly revive businesses with workers and customers who have developed immunity."
Writes Ezekiel J. Emanuel in the NYT. Excerpt:
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«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 382 of 382"That's like 10x the rate in the rest of the country (or maybe a bit less given the missing numbers). Hard to fathom."
Actually, it is perfectly understandable, at least to me- panic explains it easily. When the people coming to the ER with COVID-19, or its symptoms are few, you think more rationally, and send them home to isolate. Additionally, the patients and their families are more likely to listen to such advice.
When they start filling up the ERs, though, the doctors start to try to play it safe and admit higher and higher percentages, and the families start to expect to get a bed as a first come/first served idea.
In other words, the general expectation that admission percentages will go down with a higher number of cases (i.e triage), and up with fewer (less triage), is exactly ass-backwards to how people actually behave. What actually happens is the triage is done well before the panic, and less well once it sets in. Just go to the state level data- all of hte high percentage hospitalizations are in those states where the panic is most intense- you can almost rank them that way.
I have written it before- the panic is causing a large percentages of the deaths- it causes the hospitals to fill up more quickly, and those patients are infecting the other people who were already in the hospital for life-threatening ailments- both directly through poor environmental containment, and through the fact they all share the same staff to some degree.
"Barring relief from warming weather, I see nothing to stop the continuing spread of the disease into the majority of the population short of a total (and unacceptable) lockdown."
It looks like we have a viable treatment.
Mark said...
We have 75 cases as of yesterday in the 26 sq. miles of Arlington County.
They won't report which neighborhoods are most affected. Whether they are concentrated in Bezosville -- aka Crystal City, aka National Landing, where our new Overlord Amazon is headquartered and where the first cases were detected -- or in the hyper-dense Rosslyn to Ballston corridor, or in one-percent land north of Lee Highway, or where the progressive County Board has implemented policies to "concentrate" all the minorities and lower-income people in South Arlington.
I would really like to know that, though.
Everyone would like to know. But that wont do any good.
Assume everyone has been exposed. At this point everyone who has flu like symptoms is rushing to the hospital. About 10% of them do/did.
I would guess health care worker exposure has been universal at this point. Going to the hospital almost guarantees exposure.
Self isolate if you have symptoms.
"Zeke Emanuel wants to die at 75"
At least the rest of us. Progs always wanted to ration expenditures on old-people last-stage-of-life care. It's part of health care costs "spiraling out of control." So why worry about Wuhan? It just speeds up the job. It's the all-purpose death panel. Hits old fat sick (white? we'll see) men more: so really, from a prog standpoint, what's not to like?
You'd almost think they don't argue in good faith, and see the crisis as an opportunity not to be wasted, to devastate business and increase government control of society.
Give it another two months, says Zeke. The perfect posture: make it seem like you care about deaths but let the crisis linger just enough to trash the economy right good and make tens of millions directly dependent on government benefits.
Assume everyone has been exposed.
That goes without saying.
P.S.: NY is skewing our test results
To date, there are 2,200 deaths in a population of 330 Million.
COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, killed 134 people in New York over the past 24 hours (mar 27)
Does "New York" mean NYC, or the state? I think it means state, since it's a statement by Gov. Cuomo
If it means NYC, that's 67% higher than NYC's normal ~200 deaths per day.
If it means NY State, that's 30% higher than the state's normal ~467 deaths per day.
Fernandistein,
Almost all of the reported COVID-19 deaths come from New York City and the surrounding greater metropolitan area- this is also seen in the deaths in New Jersey and Connecticut.
I saw an article about Americans stranded outside the country and it put me in mind of this:
But the war came on, and with it his first relief undertaking. It was only the trivial matter--trivial in comparison with his later undertakings--of helping seventy thousand American travelers, stranded at the outbreak of the war, to get home.
These people, rich and poor alike, found themselves penniless and helpless because of the sudden moratorium. Letters of credit, travelers's checks, drafts, all were mere printed paper. They needed real money, hotel rooms, steamer passages, and advice. And there was nobody in London, not even the benevolent and most willing but in this respect powerless American ambassador who could help them. At least there seemed none until Hoover transferred the "relief" which had automatically congested about his private offices in the "city" during the first two days to larger headquarters in the Hotel Savoy. He gathered together all his available money and that of American friends
and opened a unique bank which had no depositors and took in no money, but continuously gave it out against personal checks signed by unknown but American-looking people on unknown banks in Walla Walla and Fresno and Grand Rapids and Dubuque and Emporia and New Bedford. And he found rooms in hotels and passage on steamers, first-class, second-class or steerage, as happened to be possible. Now on all these checks and promises to pay, just $250 failed to be realized by the man who took a risk on American honesty to the extent of several hundred thousand dollars.
"Herbert Hoover: The Man and his work" by Vernon Kellogg.
Excellent bio of Hoover though it only goes up to 1920.
About half of the book is about Hoover's privately funded (to 1917) then govt funded efforts at European food relief. He is credited with saving 20mm civilians from starvation. He gets way too little credit.
Kellogg was his chief of staff (roughly) for much of that time.
The book is well worth reading for this but also for his career as a mining engineer. (first govt job was minister of mines in China in the early 1900s)
John Henry
"It looks like we have a viable treatment."
Maybe. Hopefully. But if you search you'll see that researchers have been running clinical trials of chloroquine as a treatment for influenza and other viruses for decades without successful results.
If it proves to be notably effective for this specific virus we will have gotten very, very lucky.
Speaking of WOWP, or WOAP -
"A Telluride couple is paying for their entire county’s coronavirus tests."
+
“Data is power,” said Mei Mei Hu, who along with her husband, Lou Reese, is making the testing possible.
+
The county didn't bother to mention that private parties were paying for it.
"Easter's a very special day for me. Wouldn't it be great to have all of the churches full?" Trump later told Fox. “You'll have packed churches all over our country. I think it would be a beautiful time."
no "interpretation" needed.
steve, I thought you left us deplorables.
"Freeman Hunt said...
If it makes anyone feel any better, a relative who is involved with contact tracing in parts of the developing world is convinced that heat and humidity make a big difference."
This would explain the low numbers in my state (Hawaii). We get a lot of tourists from mainland china. About 20,000 each month in a state with a population of a little over one million. So far, around 110 positive tests, a dozen hospitalizations, no deaths.
Already brought up but worth repeating: what is "safely" in "safely restart"?
Cuomo said shutdowns would be worth it they saved even one life. So . . .? He has dialed back the insanity a bit, but until recently, that was the pro-panic mindset.
Does Trump get to say what's safe, and will Zeke back him up?
Or will the Zekes and the Althouses of America keep saying: not just yet! somebody might die!
Anyway, the lack of a reasonable stopping point, in length and expense and depth of devastation, reinforces the irrationality of the current approach.
Considering that there are no cases, worldwide as far as I know, of anyone under 20 being seriously affected, K-12 can reopen safely now, with due caution for older staff and exemptions where necessary.
Considering that, worldwide as far as I know, there is only one case of an athlete even suffering Wuhan complications, sports can reopen now, with due caution for non-athletes. Golf to start with. BMX. Swimming. Tennis. Ice hockey. Figure skating.
Not enough data, you say. OK. Give it another week. Then we have several months' worth of data from China, Italy/Europe, and the U.S. If kids and athletes start suffering, I will change my mind; otherwise, schools and sports can reopen "safely." Gradual reopening should start with low-risk areas.
Then add fast-food places: staffed by young people, serving young people. If necessary, bar oldsters. And so on.
No need to wait till June.
"We Can Safely Restart the Economy in June..."
Notice the phraseology. He really means the government stop suppressing -- depressing -- the economy.
Throwing some discretion to the governors at a certain point, given both the disease and political maps, might be wise move on Trump's part.
no "interpretation" needed
And yet, the NYT in printing this DID provide their interpretation by not providing full quotes and by cutting out remarks between the two quotes.
The important data point is hospitalization.
Really? Is that true?
I get the flu or cold or pneumonia every year and never go to the hospital. Ditto for wife. Ditto for kids. Ditto for neighbors. Not ditto for my 86-year old Father in law, who served in the Korean war. He gets hit pretty hard every winter, and we take him to the doctor and hospital. Gotta protect him.
But that's all anecdotal, so who cares? Let's look at the CDC for flu hospitalizations:
Flu cases/hospitalizations/deaths in US
Winter 2013/2014 -- 30 Million Cases - 350,000 Hospitalizations - 38,000 Deaths
Winter 2014/2015 -- 30 Million Cases - 590,000 Hospitalizations - 51,000 Deaths
Winter 2015/2016 -- 24 Million Cases - 280,000 Hospitalizations - 23,000 Deaths
Winter 2016/2017 -- 29 Million Cases - 500,000 Hospitalizations - 38,000 Deaths
Winter 2017/2018 - 45 Million Cases - 810,000 Hospitalizations - 61,000 Deaths
Winter 2018/2019 -- 35 Million Cases - 490,000 Hospitalizations - 34,000 Deaths
Source: CDC, Burden of Influenza
Anyone dispute these numbers? Have at it.
But, as anyone can see, if these numbers are reasonably accurate, then the rate of hospitalizations/cases is pretty low. About 1.4%. Meaning for every 100 flu cases, a little more than 1 person needs to be hospitalized -- close to my anecdote, no?
So, two questions: (1) If we handled 490,000 Flu hospitalizations last winter, can we handle that amount of bed space this winter? I would think Yes. Use the same hospital beds.
(2) Will we need 490,000 hospitalizations this year?
Well, currently in this US, there are 133,000 total cases.
Source: Johns Hopkins
So, what's 1.4% of 133,000? About 1,862 Hospitalizations expected. Ok, double that to be safe. OK, double that again to be really safe. Still not getting close to last year's number of 490,000 hospitalizations.
Same favor asked -- if you disagree with these numbers, please so state. If you accept the numbers, but think they aren't relevant, have at it!
"Considering that there are no cases, worldwide as far as I know, of anyone under 20 being seriously affected, K-12 can reopen safely now, with due caution for older staff and exemptions where necessary."
Wow.
"Anyone dispute these numbers? Have at it."
Those aren't counts. They are estimates by the same people who are telling you to stay home.
First, this idea has been out there for nearly two weeks, and I've been trying to draw your attention to it in the comments. Why so slow on the uptake for you?
Second, Trump's wish to reopen by Easter, which explicitly included the idea that the churches would be full, implicitly rejected the need for an eight to 10 week shutdown (in contrast, Biden explicitly said that's what his scientific advisors were recommending). Moreover, it was not tempered by any recognition of the need for reopening to be based on better science and better testing data, neither of which would be remotely possible by Easter.
Yes, it may well be true that we can reopen by Memorial Day, or at least start doing so. Easter is lunacy, and Emmanuel's "appreciation" to Trump, which is designed to avoid having his ideas rejected for the wrong reason, shouldn't cause anyone to think otherwise.
Here's an idea--actually the scientists, and the largely Democratic governors are in charge, especially the governors. At the federal level, the key actors are Pence, Birx and Fauci, and the Congressional leaders.
Trump is largely irrelevant--and we all want it that way because we recognize that his tendency to untruth and hyperbole is destructive, his management skills weak, and his judgment bad.
Tom and others.
In addition to standard SBA loans, a new option that includes elements of loan forgiveness is making its way to SBA affiliated banks.
Seems worth a look.
Isn't Eazykill Emanuel the guy who wants people to die after 75, including himself?
Fernandistein notes: "A Telluride couple is paying for their entire county’s coronavirus tests."
Good for them. Sounds like they are using good logic in their approach which is something we should have done sooner, IMO.
According to https://covidtracking.com/data/#OR, there are 117 people hospitalized out of 479 that tested positive. 24% is a pretty high number.
@Rabel,
"Those aren't counts. They are estimates by the same people who are telling you to stay home."
Partially true. The deaths are reasonable counts. The hospitalizations are best estimates. The cases are rough estimates, because there's so many recoveries of folks, who obviously don't report the flu to the CDC. The people telling us to stay home, are ignoring THEIR own figures.
You have better numbers? Time to put them up, son.
Blogger steve uhr said...
"Easter's a very special day for me. Wouldn't it be great to have all of the churches full?" Trump later told Fox. “You'll have packed churches all over our country. I think it would be a beautiful time."
Got a source? Or is this one of those things that anonymous inside sources claim he said?
it would be nice to see context too. For example, if the next sentence was something like "it's a shame we won't be able to this year" it would make your post a lie.
Help us out here Steve.
John Henry
if you disagree with these numbers, please so state.
My only disagreement is lack of the disclaimer the CDC has. The CDC does not track US adults with influenza. They only track children and then model the effect on children to determine the overall population. Among other reasons the disclaimer is necessary is that parents tend to provide better medical care for their children than themselves, not the least is because a child is typically happy to miss a day of school while the parent may not be so impartial about a day's pay by missing work. However, both misses usually require a doctor's visit to be accepted as reasonable by the school or work.
I think you will understand.
Darkisland said...
Tom said...
My small business is destroyed as our work is onsite with our clients and often requires air travel.
My situation too."
Me to. Even with the CARES program it's only for payrolls from 2/15 for 8 weeks. So even with that I'm only partially covered from 15 March to 15 May. I have been paying full salaries and hourly wages plus health insurance, disability insurance and other benefits. However if this goes beyond the third week of April I will be forced to cut back to 2/3 salaries and wages. After 15 May I may have to layoff just about all of my people. No orders coming in. No invoicing for future cash flow. Existing receivables drying up as my customers are shutting down and can't pay their invoices. Many may not reopen which results in credit losses that even with credit insurance won't make me semi-whole. Credit lines are being withdrawn so if when the economy is "reopened" another real credit crap shoot to ship or not ship and especially to those who are already plenty past due due to the virus. Then there is inventory coming in to pay for and inventory already bought and paid for to cover orders that are no longer valid. And the bank may not be so understanding regarding my present outstanding balance. I stopped paying down principal balance pay only interest to conserve cash. It's like being on a plane that is going down and there isn't anything you can do about it.
This has to be handled on a county by county basis with the none or minimally affected countys to be at normal and the more affected counties under varying degrees of lockdown. We are nearing the abyss. A great depression is no longer unthinkable. I really loathe the Democrats. Their conduct has been disgusting. All they do is bitch but as yet have offered not one alternate solution or at least anything sensible. Instead they play games. Can you imagine Hillary Clinton as president now? Or Senile Joe Biden? As Ann says " you can't beat something with nothing" and nothing is all the Democrats have.
Even if "a Covid-19-induced recession will cause its own serious health problems . . . ," it is the only way to keep the population from from dying off -- if for no other reason than we don't have the where-with-all to stop this plague. Our medical facilities and its workers are already overwhelmed.
When the president and the NYT agree on anything, run -- as fast as you can, from the suggested action .
"The people telling us to stay home, are ignoring THEIR own figures."
Covid 19 is not influenza so I don't see how you reach that conclusion.
Anyone who claims to totally understand Covid-19 in all its aspects is deluding himself. I don't doubt Dr. Emanuel's good intentions, but I wonder if he knows about or has totally dismissed this possibility: "Lockdowns may increase viral doses, mortality." https://motls.blogspot.com/2020/03/lockdowns-may-increase-viral-doses.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+LuboMotlsReferenceFrame+(Lubos+Motl%27s+reference+frame)
The only thing I know for certain about Covid-19 is that individual lives are being shattered by the consequences of this nationwide lockdown, a lockdown which is severely damaging the well-being and financial health of 100-million Americans at this very moment. Maybe it's time we stop asking ourselves how many weeks of lockdown it will take to stop the spread of the virus. No "expert" knows that answer for certain. Maybe it's time to let individuals decide for themselves which dragon to fight.
Tommy Duncan said...
Pelosi:
"When did this president know about this and what did he know?" Pelosi asked. "What did he know and when did he know it? That's for an after-action review but as the president fiddles, people are dying and we just have to take every precaution."
"We have to have testing, testing, testing. That's what we said from the start."
Are we ready for Impeachment II? Who did the fiddling back in January and early February by dedicating both the House and Senate to a pointless impeachment process?
We are a lot closer to finding out how thin the veneer of civilization is that people think.
Tommy Duncan: "Get out of the way, Nancy."
She cant. The dems/LLR's literally do not have any other campaign strategy, so its off to Impeachment III, not Impeachment II.
Stephen concludes with...Trump is largely irrelevant--and we all want it that way because we recognize that his tendency to untruth and hyperbole is destructive, his management skills weak, and his judgment bad....
...effectively negating what he said previously. Why do TDSers feel compelled to tack on such opinions? It's just bad form.
"Covid 19 is not influenza so I don't see how you reach that conclusion"
This is ignorant, so we can probably not go further. But assume the SYMPTOMS of both are very similar, then respond.
One of the earliest cohort of Wuhan Flu cases is described in Chen et al in The Lancet (2020).
Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study
Signs and symptoms at admission:
Fever (83%)
Cough (82%)
Shortness of breath (31%)
Muscle ache (11%)
Confusion (9%)
Headache (8%)
Sore throat (5%)
Source: Chen, pg. 509.
Those are what the doctors saw. On Chest X-rays and CT findings, they saw a lot of bilateral pneumonia. The CDC lumps together flu/pneumonia when counting deaths. Source: Data from CDC.
This is a very important point. This "Covid-19 Disease" is basically the same as the flu. The virus (cause) may be different, but the effect is similar. Many different things cause the same set of symptoms.
Blogger cubanbob said...
However if this goes beyond the third week of April I will be forced to cut back to 2/3 salaries and wages.
I am lucky in that I have only myself to worry about, no employees.
Here's a local story that should get national attention but doesn't seem to:
In a statement, the management of local supermarket chain SuperMax and Grupo Colón-Gerena, operator of the Red Lobster and Sizzler in Puerto Rico have partnered to safeguard the restaurant employees by relocating them to supermarket operations.
Due to the temporary closure of the two Red Lobster restaurants and the 14 Sizzler locations in Puerto Rico given the limitations to offer services while of Gov. Wanda Vázquez’s Executive Order mandating a lockdown and 24/7 curfew, SuperMax will temporarily hire — and for the duration of the emergency — more than 150 employees of the restaurants.
https://newsismybusiness.com/supermax-to-temporarily-hire-150-red-lobster-sizzler-employees/
In other news:
Amazon plans to hire 100,000
CVS 50,000
Dollar General 50,000
Dominos 10,000
Instacart 300,000
Walmart 150,000
and a number of other examples in the article
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/20/coronavirus-amazon-walmart-among-companies-hiring-during-crisis/2886881001/
I think businesses large and small have opportunities to partner here an some kind of clearinghouse would be a great idea.
You cant afford to keep paying if you are closed, send your employees to another company and it keeps food on their table. you look like a hero for arranging this, the other companies get known employees.
your employees will even come back with some new knowledge. Even if it is only how good they have it working for you.
now would be the time to start talking about it rather than april when you have to lay people off. talk to your employees, they may have useful ideas too.
john henry
The "experts" need to STFU. They have no idea at this time how long any of this will take, how a restart would look, or how people will react to any of it. I know experts get paid to give answers, but they don't seem to get paid or asked any less when they are wrong. We just need to relax and take it day by day. What purpose is served by making half-assed predictions which are just guesses dressed up with selective data, of which everyone has a computer full.
@Leland,
My only disagreement is lack of the disclaimer the CDC has. The CDC does not track US adults with influenza. They only track children and then model the effect on children to determine the overall population. Among other reasons the disclaimer is necessary is that parents tend to provide better medical care for their children than themselves, not the least is because a child is typically happy to miss a day of school while the parent may not be so impartial about a day's pay by missing work. However, both misses usually require a doctor's visit to be accepted as reasonable by the school or work.
Yes!
CDC's large numbers are done by computer models. No parent calls the CDC to report they have a cold or flu. We simply handle it -- except for the roughly 1.4% who need to go the hospital.
But, the point is -- if CDC's best computer models from last year say, 490,000 hospitalizations and 34,000 deaths, they shouldn't be able to scare the fucking shit out of the entire world, and lock it down, by claiming One Million future deaths for basically the same disease as we handled last winter, and every past winter.
if CDC's best computer models from last year say, 490,000 hospitalizations and 34,000 deaths, they shouldn't be able to scare the fucking shit out of the entire world, and lock it down
Epidemiology is not treatment. They are all about models and politics, especially the public health people.
There are not that many reports from the treatment front lines and some of those are from hot spots. Why post a podcast saying your hospital is only half full ?
If we stay like this until June, we will be in a depression.
Don't ask doctors to talk economics.
We should reopen tomorrow.
Sam Girgis
@BioBreakout
·
8h
NYC subway system spread SARS-CoV-2 virus throughout the entire city and contributed to proliferation of the contagion. How can we pack subway cars like sardines and not expect it to result in worsening Pandemic? No wonder NYC is now the Epicenter!
--
Ya think?
So what does safe to come out from under the bed look like? Anyone?
I am seeing European data that 2/3 of deaths are male, most overweight and of course past 70. At first glance, CDC does not report precisely. Anyone know the breakdown here?
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Bay Area Guy said...
"Covid 19 is not influenza so I don't see how you reach that conclusion"
This is ignorant, so we can probably not go further. But assume the SYMPTOMS of both are very similar, then respond.
———
Ask yourself, am I helping? Or am I writing a Stephen Colbert routine?
There are not that many reports from the treatment front lines and some of those are from hot spots. Why post a podcast saying your hospital is only half full ?
I just came back from an Urgent Care facility (needed tetanus shot). There was a lady leaving when I entered and a guy who came in when I left. The employees were friendly and definitely unstressed. The parking lot was almost completely empty.
Here in north suburban Tucson, the panic has not set in among the healthcare seekers or providers.
In context...
In a second interview with Fox that aired Tuesday afternoon, Trump said he offered the holiday as a deadline because “Easter’s a very special day for me.”
“Wouldn’t it be great to have all the churches full?” Trump asked. “You’ll have packed churches all over our country … I think it’ll be a beautiful time.”
Trump added that “I’m not sure that’s going to be the day,” but “that would be a beautiful thing.”
At a press briefing Tuesday evening, Trump appeared to back off the idea even further. “We’ll only do it if it’s good,” Trump said, adding that he is “very much in touch” with White House experts. “I just think it would be a beautiful timeline.”
“Our decision will be based on hard facts and data as to the opening” of the economy, Trump said in that presser. “Every decision is grounded solely in the health, safety and wellbeing of our citizens.”
"if CDC's best computer models from last year say, 490,000 hospitalizations and 34,000 deaths, they shouldn't be able to scare the fucking shit out of the entire world, and lock it down, by claiming One Million future deaths for basically the same disease as we handled last winter, and every past winter."
This is the point. Even if Wuhan risks being twice as bad as ordinary flu, as seems possible if we get a few more New Yorks, even if we are on track for ten times ordinary flu, an unlikely scenario, it doesn't justify a million times the cost of the ordinary response.
Yes, we should take precautions, yes, we should isolate the risk groups, no, we should not trash the economy.
Mr. Emmanuel is full of it. What our leaders actually need to do is stop bashing China. I get it the Chinese suck. But the popular theory that explains the origin of the Covid 19 epidemic is ridiculous. How many people do you know who ramble on endlessly about how "Covid 19 was not a natural event, but rather the result of a laboratory accident in a Chinese military facility." This is bullsh*t. Covid 19 is "novel" or completely new. I would agree if Covid 19's genetic sequence was identical, or nearly identical, to any other Coronavirus strain than. But that's not the case.
Compare our current pandemic with the 1977-78 influenza epidemic. That epidemic was, improbably, caused by a virus that was decades old. I think the Russians screwed up with that one...
What if the numbers were reported as total for all flu and COVID cases, hospitalizations and deaths? Wouldn't that be more useful information in terms of how much shutting down is in order. We are ignoring all the rest of the similar diseases right now as if they are not happening, and reacting to just one as if it's totally unprecedented, neither of which is true.
It should be reported in percentage terms as compared to an average flu season. Are at 110% of normal? 200%?, 90%?. Without that overall picture, we really are not being responsible, and it seems kinda stupid to ignore that perspective. All the cases matter, and they are all infectious diseases transmitted in similar fashion. The tunnel vision can't be wise.
"This is ignorant, so we can probably not go further."
Sounds like a good idea.
I see Spiros is defending China. Maybe you could get them to release some data, being a friend and all.
"Trump added that “I’m not sure that’s going to be the day,” but “that would be a beautiful thing.”"
Thanks, Wince.
Ken B said...
Bay Area Guy said...
"Covid 19 is not influenza so I don't see how you reach that conclusion"
This is ignorant, so we can probably not go further. But assume the SYMPTOMS of both are very similar, then respond.
———
Ask yourself, am I helping? Or am I writing a Stephen Colbert routine?
Ken B is solidly in Chuck territory at this point.
We will all remember who the assholes were for a long time.
I'm not defending China. I think Rush Limbaugh and Foxnews do a better job promoting China's soft power than I ever could. That's their mission. I just believe that Coronavirus started with a bat in a cave somewhere.
"I just believe that Coronavirus started with a bat in a cave somewhere."
That somebody ate.
Francisco D said...
Here in north suburban Tucson, the panic has not set in among the healthcare seekers or providers.
This is fucked up.
We shut down schools and a huge number of jobs and businesses.
But activity like this ensures universal exposure in vulnerable populations.
This shutdown and how we have handled COVID-19 is just really fucking stupid.
Once we started using an overall number for flu and flu-type diseases, we could have that reported and predicted every year, so that people could respond with appropriate levels of self-protection, thus reducing all sickness and death from all of it every year. All those deaths count, and they are preventable and reducible with the same responses for the most part. We might even start developing better, more effective and focused responses, including technology and behaviors that would be less disruptive to our lives and economy.
"What if the numbers were reported as total for all flu and COVID cases, hospitalizations and deaths?"
Of course. Then focus on excess deaths. More precisely, excess QALYs lost-- much higher than actual deaths in case of flu due to young people dying.
Excess mortality is not an obscure concept. "Experts" apply it routinely. In fact, it's how they, some of them anyway, measure the relative impact of flu. (By the way, a commentator here (forgot who) posted a link recently to a nice paper by Rosano et al. doing just that for flu in Italy. Over 68K for four recent years! Did you know? I didn't. Did anyone urge special containment measures, or publish sob stories in newspapers? If so, I missed it.)
At some point, of course, they'll do it for Wuhan disease. The fact that no expert, at least to my knowledge, addresses it seriously tells me that as of now experts have motives other than presenting the most precise picture.
Which, again, is not to advocate doing nothing. But we do need to see things in proper quantitative perspective, and thereby to calibrate our responses more rationally.
Spiros
No one I know thinks the Chinese created a weapon. We think they lied about the outbreak, destroyed evidence, locked up whistleblowers. We think this deliberate dishonesty made the pandemic vastly worse than it had to be, and hobbled responses. We think they are still lying and still an impediment. We think their actions morally culpable.
Rabel said “Wow.”
Indeed. And you haven’t seen the worst of it.
“ Assume everyone has been exposed.”
This is peak crazy.
Regarding the “everyone already has it” theory, a semi-random sample of 645 from Colorado showed zero positives.
John Henry thanks for the comment. However I'm in Miami and the number of people in the service and retail sectors are huge relative to the workforce here and for my staff the competition will be fierce. And my staff demographic is even worse, most of my people are over forty. One forlorn hope is that my business derived income tax due 15 April can be deferred to July so that will help my cash reserves for a while. Poor Puerto Rico, between lousy governance, natural disasters, massive emigration to the mainland and now this, it's amazing the island hasn't collapsed altogether. If the US government had any sense (an oxymoron ) Congress would reinstitute the tax package that enable PR to be a major pharmaceutical producer.
Spiros said...
I just believe that Coronavirus started with a bat in a cave somewhere.
"To the Bat Cave!
...Uh, oh."
And I responded:
"But why should the taxpayers subsidize you, Mike? What value do you add?"
If indeed, your "prediction" is correct that the system is overwhelmed, and "the employer never will be charged for the benefits" then you are changing the rules, mid-game, to benefit the profits of your agency.
I'm just suggesting, if your business model no longer works, and you cannot accept the risks without the costs coming from... somebody else, then perhaps it is time to close your business. Again: what value are you adding, or why should the government be guaranteeing your business risks?"
Wow! Just wow! First are you a net taxpayer? Second if you read Mike's comment it must of flew past you that the state doesn't have the cash to pay the requisite compensation even if the caregivers worked directly for the state as independent contractors.
Maybe someone can help me out here:
A couple of weeks ago I was looking at the CDC data on influenza deaths and it appeared that they lumped together all-cause pneumonia deaths and influenza deaths into a single category ((Influenza and pneumonia (J09–J18)) which produced the large numbers we see relating to influenza deaths, i.e. 61,000 in 20xx.
My initial reaction was that I was reading that wrong. A lot of people die from pneumonia in its various forms unrelated to influenza and putting those people into the I&P tally was highly misleading.
I looked again today and it surely seems that that is the case.
I know they will lie to us "for the greater good" but that would be just too much. And would mean that we are working with false data in evaluating the severity of the current problem because the true number of influenza deaths is much lower than reported. I must be wrong.
See table I-12,
btw, the lockdown has not reduced the spread in spain, fwiw,
yes, we have to be granular with all statistics,
One guy — Trump, with an eye on the election wants to open 4/12. Another guy with the other eye on election wants to open in June. Guess mid May sounds right.
I have the TV on to an old golf tournament and NBC just announced that grocery delivery services might go on strike tomorrow. Thanks, NBC./s That ought to set off another round of panic buying. I might as well forget about getting any groceries this week.
Oh, it's just Instacart [the announcement could have said that].
Regarding the “everyone already has it” theory, a semi-random sample of 645 from Colorado showed zero positives.
Straw man alert. No one seriously thinks "everyone already has it." And "exposed" is not the same as "having it." The issue is whether the percentage of actual cases is substantially higher than known cases. We'll eventually find out. Your Colorado example is mildly interesting but not exactly dispositive.
James K
The everyone has it was explicitly defended here, in the form that everyone who is going to get it pretty much already has. That really isn’t tenable. More pertinent though are those who count the entire nation in their denominators. The fact is that it is spreading unevenly.
Ken B: "James K
The everyone has it was explicitly defended here, in the form that everyone who is going to get it pretty much already has."
Hmmmmmmmmm, really?
Who here has made that argument?
Regarding the “everyone already has it” theory, a semi-random sample of 645 from Colorado showed zero positives.
If they keep up that sort of testing, might kinda change the percentages of exposed/infected/dead.
Not enough people have noticed that we've gone from social distancing to stay inside your house....
...which makes it worse in multiple ways.
Yes! I'm tired of people still calling it social distancing. Like that's always been a thing we said anyway.
My county, on a major interstate, has 6 confirmed. The 3 counties to my north, without one, have 1 case between them.
The fact is that the worst is yet to come, we don't know how bad it's going to be. Either way, the probability of infection will be significantly higher for the next few weeks than now. Now is not the time to let your guard down. Quite the opposite. I'm sure glad I've got 35-years experience using ppe and decontamination in hazmat exclusion zones.
Spiros said...
I'm not defending China. I think Rush Limbaugh and Foxnews do a better job promoting China's soft power than I ever could. That's their mission. I just believe that Coronavirus started with a bat in a cave somewhere.
Yeah, a bat cave in that level 4 biolab in Wuhan. I doubt it was a weapon but there has been a lot of Chinese literature about bat viruses and their ability to tolerate viruses that should cause illness. I suspect they were researching these viruses and a sample escaped, possibly through bad security, typical of China. Some employee took an infected bat and sold it, or some similar breach.
Then China suppressed the story and even arrested doctors that tried to warn.
Something like this.
Xi’s government has consistently denied the hard evidence that Chinese officials knew about human-to-human transmission at least in December, failing to warn the globe and misleading the credulous World Health Organization. Nor has it admitted that the government destroyed virological samples from Wuhan. Meanwhile, even though the CCP has “solemnly apologized” to the family of Dr. Li Wenliang and exonerated him for his attempts to warn about the epidemic, it continues to threaten and suppress brave Chinese whistleblowers, who attempt to reveal the truth about what is happening in China.
There is another story about the takeover of generic drug production by China but that is for another day.
I agree with you here, Doc Mike. China needs a serious enema and hose down before we go back to anything resembling business as usual.
and they had the likes of bruce Aylward to run interference, but then we come to defense minister haotian's words, that I've referenced often,
Blogger Bay Area Guy said...
"Covid 19 is not influenza so I don't see how you reach that conclusion"
This is ignorant, so we can probably not go further. But assume the SYMPTOMS of both are very similar, then respond.
One of the earliest cohort of Wuhan Flu cases is described in Chen et al in The Lancet (2020).
Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study
Signs and symptoms at admission:
Fever (83%)
Cough (82%)
Shortness of breath (31%)
Muscle ache (11%)
Confusion (9%)
Headache (8%)
Sore throat (5%)
Source: Chen, pg. 509.
Those are what the doctors saw. On Chest X-rays and CT findings, they saw a lot of bilateral pneumonia. The CDC lumps together flu/pneumonia when counting deaths. Source: Data from CDC.
This is a very important point. This "Covid-19 Disease" is basically the same as the flu. The virus (cause) may be different, but the effect is similar. Many different things cause the same set of symptoms.
3/29/20, 1:55 PM
Ken B said...
Bay Area Guy said...
"Covid 19 is not influenza so I don't see how you reach that conclusion"
This is ignorant, so we can probably not go further. But assume the SYMPTOMS of both are very similar, then respond.
———
Ask yourself, am I helping? Or am I writing a Stephen Colbert routine?
Good response Ken. Humor. Wit. Brevity.
Now, any chance of addressing the fact that symptoms resemble flu?
The "experts" need to STFU. They have no idea at this time how long any of this will take, how a restart would look, or how people will react to any of it.
I imagine that if an employer lays off its staff and they have to go on unemployment, when the restart begins and they call them up and say, "Hey come back to work," the fired employees are in many cases going to tell them to "eff off."
that grocery delivery services might go on strike
The feds would immediately tell them to get back on the job.
Meanwhile, I read the story about a public employee union that snatched up millions of masks and then extorted/price-gouged in trying to sell them.
Perhaps the first massive testing should be of the people who have been acting norlmally, the construction workers, lawn care workers, housekeepers, grocery clerks, delivery men and women, the men driving forklifts in warehouses, the truck drivers, mechanics, plumbers and electricians and well diggers. The people making it possible for the rest of us to hide comfortably in our homes. Helping.
Ken B... Please comment on how many diseases share symptoms because irrelevant. The deniaplorables love offering you all expenses paid trip down the rabbit hole.
the probability of infection will be significantly higher for the next few weeks than now
It depends upon where you are. And whether reckless, selfish people from the hot zones break their community distancing and spread the disease to the cold zones.
Communities and states should probably think about implementing plague rules and walling off the outside world.
The virus is in every state ONLY because someone else brought it into that state.
You New Yorkers just stay in your own city/state now (and forever after as far as I'm concerned, even if this outbreak never happened), and us Virginians will stay out of your city/state. I can do without a day trip to the Met.
Howard
I gotta admit, deniaplorables is pretty funny.
As Meade noted there is a real split amongst Trump voters. But the denialists all seem to be a Trumpkins.
Michael
Yes. Health care workers and the people doing those vital jobs. Poetry professors and news pundits can wait.
It's all in good fun Ken B. I sure hope they are right that this is a big nothing Burger and then Trump saves the economy and wins re-election and they're all happy for another 4 years. Of course I'll have to put up with my wife going slowly insane over TDS
fyi - The CDC said they first found out about the virus on Jan 4. This is a news release from the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission dated 12/31/2019 (which is 12/30 in USA?) discussing the virus, which by then had infected 27 people, or so they say. It is the first press release on the virus I could locate, after a diligent search, but it reads as if there were earlier public stories. We need to do a better job monitoring such websites.
http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2019123108989
Need to translate of course. Sorry I don't know how to do a direct link.
The Corona virus differs from influenza by affecting heart and kidneys. One reason to avoid NSAIDS like ibuprofen is renal injury from ibuprofen added to the virus injury., Ditto for tylenol and liver injury, especially in kids.
There are now reports of cardiac injury, as well. Much of this may be pre-existing conditions but viral myocarditis is well known.
Easter may be too early but May 1 should be possible. I still think elders like me can tolerate social distancing better.
steve uhr -- we posted the entire timeline yesterday.
Howard
I live in Canada. Every single person I know is slowly going insane over TDS.
Easter may be too early but May 1 should be possible.
Many of the states -- the ones around D.C. in any event -- are under emergency orders to close non-essential businesses, and limit groups to ten people, through April. Those probably aren't going away early. In any event, school buildings are closed for the rest of the academic year.
I dislike the term "denialist". The arguments that I've seen on this blog over the last two weeks seem to be that we've taken dramatic steps to avoid a potentially catastrophic public health crisis. In doing so, we've created a potentially catastrophic financial crisis.
What we know at the moment is that high population, high density cities are not able to deal with the sudden increase in patient load, while other places- lots of other places are (so far) managing reasonably well.
We don't know the infection rate or how bad this will eventually be, but it does seem logical that loosening lockdowns in lightly affected areas would be beneficial. As others have said, hospitals and nursing homes need to impose and maintain very strict quarantine type measures for the foreseeable future.
Coronavirus to peak in Wisconsin May 22, report says
“The coronavirus crisis will peak in Wisconsin around May 22, with about 1,350 people in the hospital and 13 people dying every day, and will last well into July, according to projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research center at the University of Washington.”
Tomcc
Your remarks are eminently sensible, but we have a cadre who deny that those steps are necessary or were necessary. They would lift them, now. They also deny that a major escalation in illnesses would be a dire threat to the economy. Some maintain that covid is just like the flu; that too is denial. See Michael K's comment on the issue today. Some airily dismiss the danger of millions dead; that too is denial. If you have a better word I am open to suggestions. But I won’t ignore their reckless folly.
"Mr. Emmanuel is full of it. What our leaders actually need to do is stop bashing China." Not really, China has gotten away unscathed when you scan the headlines or see the non stop panic broadcast of CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC etc. China criminally liable for suppressing covid-19's outbreak thereby robbing the rest of the world the information needed to fight this pandemic in a timely manner. That apologist like you spring out of your spiderhole to make excuses for China is not surprising. Disgusting maybe, but not surprising.
Ken B: "They also deny that a major escalation in illnesses would be a dire threat to the economy."
I'd like to see that comment.
Perhaps you could direct us to it.
The coronavirus crisis will peak in Wisconsin around May 22
That equals several incubation/contagious cycles.
It also would mean that the virus can spread even in the midst of a lock down. And if it can spread even with all these measures, then people are going to ask what the point of them is?
Spiros: "I'm not defending China. I think Rush Limbaugh and Foxnews do a better job promoting China's soft power than I ever could."
What an insane comment.
Limbaugh, from what I've read of his comments directly, (his transcripts are online every day) is 100% in support of Trump's policies of total confrontation with China.
But lets cut to the chase: post something Limbaugh has said that represents "promoting China's soft power".
Assuming you could stop defending the ChiCom's long enough to identify a pull quote.
Some airily dismiss the danger of millions dead; that too is denial. If you have a better word I am open to suggestions
A better word? How about "rational"? Or "cautious"? Or "hopeful"? Or "non-alarmist"?
The problem with obstinate refusal to admit the possibility of anything positive is that it feeds on itself and spirals down and down spitting out venom to those who in all good faith and reason might take a different view.
In any event, there is always a better word than some ad hominem that has been thrown at people.
Tomcc: "I dislike the term "denialist"."
It's used for a specific purpose and piggybacks improperly on something that should have no parallel.
The left used it quite frequently to label those who refused to accept lunatic Trump/Russia collusion conspiracies. Like many leftists at Althouse. Like one particular leftist on this very thread.
Here's an example:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/01/trump-russia-scandal-deniers-mueller-witch-hunt.html
You lost both the argument and people's desire to engage with you, Ken, when you started with the name-calling.
Although some people will no doubt -- and already are -- start yet another back-and-forth flame war with you.
None of those words fit Mark. You want to change the meaning is all. The one thing they are not is “cautious”!
Trump extends social distancing to May Day. Coincidence or Commie plot?
Ken B: "None of those words fit Mark."
But using Holocaust Denier terminology is totes cool.
“I have the TV on to an old golf tournament and NBC just announced that grocery delivery services might go on strike tomorrow. Thanks, NBC./s That ought to set off another round of panic buying. I might as well forget about getting any groceries this week.”
I’m so relieved I got a biggish order yesterday and my daughter got one today. I tipped the delivery person $20 on a $112 order, plus gave her 5 stars which means she gets $5. more. I noticed that Amazon Fresh is out of many many many items. Don’t count on it for groceries. Aldi’s and Woodman’s and PickNSave here in WI have internet ordering and curbside pickup. Walmart does too. I sure hope these gig workers are given what they’re asking for from Instacart.
I can remember being called a "rape denier" during the Kavanaugh hearings.
The left makes frequent use of that term for political purposes.
No doubt, bad faith people will spin the President's guidance to keep social distancing through April 30 as "Trump caved." When, in fact, all along he was expressing no more than a hope and a wish that we could lift restrictions sooner rather than later, with the intention all along of listening to the advice of the task group.
Need I even mention "climate denier" (which doesn't even make sense) for not accepting on faith the most extreme flawed "climate models" which "prove" AGW.
I'm pretty sure we are about 15 minutes away from being called a "gender deniers" for not accepting that a man can become a woman simply by wishing it were so.
Mark: "No doubt, bad faith people will spin the President's guidance to keep social distancing through April 30 as "Trump caved.""
It's politically helpful for the lefties to conflate "social distancing" with complete shutdowns.
As I noted above, many of the states are under emergency orders to close non-essential businesses, and limit groups to ten people, through April.
That was going to be the case in any event.
Inga, that's an interesting chart/article. I'm curious as to why when "most experts" expect it to peak in mid-April, that WI won't peak for another month after that. Seems like a very long incubation period.
Trump didn't cave, he is trying to save his re-election. There will be another extension if the mid April numbers are bad.
I missed this on Friday:
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved emergency use for a portable, fast, swab test for the coronavirus Friday which can provide results in less than 15 minutes.
From Abbott Labs
Abbott will be able to provide 50,000 tests by April 1 and will be able to provide 1 million per month of this test, Moore said.
“Inga, that's an interesting chart/article. I'm curious as to why when "most experts" expect it to peak in mid-April, that WI won't peak for another month after that. Seems like a very long incubation period.”
Don’t know for sure, but guessing it’s because we are a few weeks behind the outbreaks on the coasts. People may not have been exposed in the same numbers here in the same time period as they were on the coasts.
Also, the more data that are garnered [heh!] the better the models will be. They aren't static.
Howard: "Trump didn't cave, he is trying to save his re-election."
Its now part of the standard dem talking points that Trump only cares about his re-election and cares nothing for people.
This has replaced the previous dem talking point that Trump was a russian spy and asset.
Some people like to get suckered into playing the game.
Well, I ain't playing.
Say whatever inane thing you want.
Tomcc
Yes the Abbott thing is good news.
Imagine if we had President Bernie these past 3 years, punishing the pharma industry and driving the entrepreneurs and inventors out of it.
"Trump didn't cave, he is trying to save his re-election."
Saving his re-election, saving the country. You say tomato…
Drago thinks Trump altruistic. Read his tweet brag today about his great TV ratings.
I understand the need for shutdowns. I also understand the need for massive aid. What I do not understand is why aid to corporations that are suffering is treated as a gift with strings that are arbitrary and offensive. The usual prog focus on corporate bonuses, stock buybacks. As though the corporations drove their companies into the ditch out of greed. The govt drove them in the ditch and is making the corporations pay to be pulled out. And to buy tires from them. Sick. I used to feel pity for these dimwits who have been in govt their whole lives. Now I am disgusted with them. They are vile. Every one.
Why are hundreds of front line doctors and nurses not dying? Are they immune? Are they taking something to prevent infection?
How many multiple deaths in family units? Aside from one family a couple of weeks ago, no news of multiple family members living together dying .
OM: Exactly. It's reassuring to know that even though Trump is self serving, his viability is based 100% on a Bigly Coronavirus win.
Howard said: Trump extends social distancing to May Day. Coincidence or Commie plot?
Definitely a Commie plot!
We don't often agree but I certainly appreciate your sense of humor.
Howard: "Drago thinks Trump altruistic. Read his tweet brag today about his great TV ratings."
Howard and dems take time out from touting bizarre Biden poll numbers and planning their next impeachment strategy to complain that Trump and his campaign make note of voter interest in information sharing events.
In Howard world, its a terrible terrible thing that people keep tuning into these press conferences.
Don't worry Howard. Many of your fellow dems are planning on not showing these terrible terrible press conferences so, in time, you won't have to see them.
“I have the TV on to an old golf tournament and NBC just announced that grocery delivery services might go on strike tomorrow. Thanks, NBC./s That ought to set off another round of panic buying. I might as well forget about getting any groceries this week.”
Hmmm.. last week has been light to moderate lines at supermarkets. Today, looked like a hundred foot line, like a couple of weeks ago. Hard to imagine this is the cause, but maybe.
BTW, toilet paper, milk eggs, beans and rice. at Walmart San Jose yesterday, no panic, everyone polite, distancing and calm. Worst thing is discarded gloves in parking lot which seems to be the norm at every supermarket. Disgusting..and inconsiderate.
If Ken B and Howard are on the same side of an issue, bet the opposite!
The sun is now shining on my back porch, so I am in a very good mood (Superficially, of course. Lotta folks hurt by the economic shut down overreaction to this disease - haven't forgot about them, but can't be dispirited 24/7).
Worst thing is discarded gloves in parking lot which seems to be the norm at every supermarket. Disgusting..and inconsiderate.
Probably the same nitwits who leave their shopping carts out in the parking lot.
Worst thing is discarded gloves in parking lot which seems to be the norm at every supermarket. Disgusting..and inconsiderate.
mockturtle responded: Probably the same nitwits who leave their shopping carts out in the parking lot.
That is an ongoing issue here in southern Arizona. My wife likes to go up to people who start to drive away while leaving their carts in the lot and asks them if they need help returning the cart. Some of them call her rude, but most drive away embarrassed.
I was recently tempted to toss my nitrile gloves on the ground when returning to my car, but thought better of it. Mrs Francisco may be small but she is mighty.
Drago: Show me my posts promoting Biden or his pole numbers. I understand people need to be reassured by their leaders, it's a little scary when the President needs to reassure himself. Fortunately he is letting the Deep State experts run things. I have it on good authority that the Coronavirus is being mapped based on electoral college impacts so that the scientist's recommendations can be approved by Donald. Unfortunately for New Yorkers that means fewer respirators, but Florida is flush.
Trump just revised the dateline for the economy to May 1.
Probably realistic.
Howard: " I understand people need to be reassured by their leaders, it's a little scary when the President needs to reassure himself."
Right.
Just keep piling the new stuff on top of the old stuff.
One of these days you might get lucky.
Howard: " Unfortunately for New Yorkers that means fewer respirators, but Florida is flush."
Yeah, Cuomo really screwed those guys over by going with the solar project instead of replenishing his pandemic response stockpile.
The good news for Cuomo is that you guys are more than happy to overlook that and give him a pass.
After all, Andrew has only been Gov there for 10 years. I mean, what can anyone accomplish in 10 years. Most leaders require 20 or 30.
"I have it on good authority that the Coronavirus is being mapped based on electoral college impacts so that the scientist's recommendations can be approved by Donald."
You may want to get a better authority.
Trump himself also mentioned a possibility of 100,000 deaths by the time this is all over. Wonder why the change of tone/rhetoric.
FullMoon said...
How many multiple deaths in family units? Aside from one family a couple of weeks ago, no news of multiple family members living together dying .
There was a case in Arizona with 5 infected. I think one was a health care worker. No deaths.
Here is a New Jersey family with 4 deaths.
I'll bet Howard is very upset that Trump forced the dem mayor of New Orleans to hold Mardi Gras.
We should make that Impeachment Article 2 for the next Sham-Wow-Peachment, which is now clearly coming.
Michael K: probably realistic
I think so, too. With that said, I think many people can practice social distancing while at work, with gloves and masks if necessary. I'd like to see that happen in the latter part of April.
Inga said...
Trump himself also mentioned a possibility of 100,000 deaths by the time this is all over. Wonder why the change of tone/rhetoric.
Do you consider the possibility that he is a responsible leader who is taking advice ?
“Inga said...
Trump himself also mentioned a possibility of 100,000 deaths by the time this is all over. Wonder why the change of tone/rhetoric.
Do you consider the possibility that he is a responsible leader who is taking advice ?”
Anything is possible.
OM: "You may want to get a better authority."
Oh no. Howard knows its a lie. But its the latest needed lie and the statements by Pelosi and Chris Murphy and questions during the press conference clearly demonstrate the dems/LLR's/Media are going to tee up impeachment hearings over assertions that Trump purposely withheld fed govt aid to states with Dem governors.
So from here on out, in the same way we witnessed one Putin/Hookers peeing on beds/Ukrainian hoax quid pro quo allusion after another day after day for 4+ years now, this will be the new one that the dems hope to carry them thru to victory in Nov.
If you were looking at Biden as your candidate and knew you couldn't just slot someone else in without losing a significant portion of your base voters (15% of Bernie supporters said they would vote for Trump), you'd be desperate too.
Drago, The NOLA mayor said Fat Tuesday was on because Trump said Coronavirus was probably a hoax. The fish rots from the head down
I missed it. Did Pence have to hold up a new sign?
Howard: "Drago, The NOLA mayor said Fat Tuesday was on because Trump said Coronavirus was probably a hoax."
This lie has been debunked so many times, even by the MSM'ers, that its pretty amazing you are still trying to pass it off as legit.
But then again, when you are simply piling lie on top of lie, what else are you gonna do? You can't just stop because then, all the lies come tumbling down.
I get it. You've got nothing else.
"Drago, The NOLA mayor said Fat Tuesday was on because Trump said Coronavirus was probably a hoax."
The mayor is either a liar or an idiot.
OM: you mean better than pulling it out of my arse? That's a very high standard.
You people are too easy
OM: "The mayor is either a liar or an idiot."
No.
The mayor is a good team player, and what the dems need now is "evidence" that Trump is purposely punishing democrat controlled areas out of spite in order to, as Pelosi said just this morning, crank up their "watergate style" investigation and hearings. "What did the President know and when did he know it".
And voila, just like that, the media at the press conference are all on board. Probably because they've seen Biden too and they know "it ain't good".
You're the liar? I gave you the benefit of the doubt.
Someone's has to feed the Drago...
Bye, Howard.
OM: I don't hide the fact that I am a Troll.
Please don't go OM. I'll be better... promise.
What cracks me up the most is how serious you people get like your controlling a nuclear power plant
Howard: "You people are too easy"
Oh, right.
The "I meant that" troll rationale, again.
Uh huh.
But then, how did you get the MI gov, Dem Senator Murphy, Pelosi and the media "questioners" to go along with your "troll"?
You didn't. You are just parroting the lies necessary to advance the narrative. A narrative that was not set by you. You are just doing your "job" for your team...as you've been subtly directed.
Howard: "What cracks me up the most is how serious you people get like your controlling a nuclear power plant"
The Democrat Speaker of the House, on live TV, just weeks after a sham-peachment based on an obvious lie, just told the world today that she is preparing to launch a Watergate style impeachment hearing into the President.
This was after a United States Senator on live TV last night called this newest hoax another "ukraine".
This was just before the same media that advanced the Russia collusion lie for 4 years teed up a series of questions designed to advance that narrative in a press conference dedicated to discussing a global pandemic.
So, uh, yeah, we know the dems are serious about foisting this latest hoax on us, just like all the other hoaxes.
To me this is a game of chicken between Trump and D party and D state governors who will refuse prudent restrictions if not on all the citizens?
is anyone tracking CoVID19 deaths v all other deaths?
that would give an idea of how abnormal this is and what additional load on hopital resources
We are still able to go to our jobs in Hawaii (for now) but any coworker that has left the island (and I’m NOT on Oahu) will be quarantined for 14 days. And ditto anyone from anywhere else.
The ER doc from NYC who appeared on Tuckers show, on Friday I think, when asked if he was on any meds to protect against excessive exposure to covid patients said he was taking Plaquenil(hydroxychloroquine).I pray that all these brave HC workers are able to access that if they desire.
Don't know if Sundays US totals(00GMT) are updated, but if so, todays total deaths are 1/2 of yesterdays.
One can hope its real.
Drago said...
"But lets cut to the chase: post something Limbaugh has said that represents "promoting China's soft power"."
*******************************
Spiros won't, because he can't.
Limbaugh has always called the Chinese government the ChiComs, and he considers them America's most dangerous rival.
He took Bloomberg to the woodshed for claiming that Xi, like any politician, had to satisfy his constituents---ignoring the fact that Xi, now President for Life, was elected only by the Communist Party and not by the Chinese people.
He has mocked Thomas Friedman of the NYT for his approval of the Chinese system, claiming it "gets things done" in a manner superior to ours.
Pretty obvious that Spiros knows nothing about Limbaugh.
320Busdriver said...
Don't know if Sundays US totals(00GMT) are updated, but if so, todays total deaths are 1/2 of yesterdays.
If you look a week earlier there was a similar dip. While I doubt people stop dying on the Sundays, reporting may be less up to date.
I heard that they'll lift the quarantine in quadrants starting in the south where the flu is dying off already. Another rumor is that they are testing all deaths in NOLA for covid including gunshot deaths because for some reason they want high numbers. I know that if you have an out-of-state license plate people wonder if you're a covid escapee bringing the disease with you. The worst plates are NY.
But meanwhile in real life: the trouble is, Mike Sylwester and Cuban Bob, that your group don't have the figures. The epidemiology of bankruptcy - where does it intersect with the epidemiology of WuFlu. Your figures are the first definite facts I've seen. I think the small businesses should input the date on which they need to be open for business in order to survive into their own dashboard so that we can see the intersection of the epidemic and financial ruin - which is very close for many in this country.
In completely unsurprising news, the Netherlands is now recalling 600,000 ChiCom produced masks and this is after half a dozen countries have recalled hundreds of thousands of test kits and other ChiCom provided equipment for being defective to astonishing degrees (80% of test kits faulty in one nation).
All on top of the now fully exposed ChiCom lying about their test results and status all on top of their repressive measures to silence anyone who doesn't toe the line.
What's most astonishing however, is just how many Americans decided that it was a perfectly reasonable thing to do to parrot each and every ChiCom lie put forth for the sole purpose of wanting to make Trump look bad by comparison.
Blogger Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
320Busdriver said...
Don't know if Sundays US totals(00GMT) are updated, but if so, todays total deaths are 1/2 of yesterdays.
If you look a week earlier there was a similar dip. While I doubt people stop dying on the Sundays, reporting may be less up to date.
There was a slight day over day decrease on the 20th and 21st, but last Sunday there was a large increase in deaths. Is it possible that we are seeing the impact of widespread usage of the drug cocktail.. God I hope so
Sunday’s numbers are now revised up to over 360 deaths due to late reporting from NY. Still way under Saturday’s total.
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