Actual sunrise time: 6:59. That's back before 7 again. The daylight today goes for 12 hours and 12 minutes. Nicely balanced between light and dark, with a slight tip toward light, those extra 12 minutes. Possibly of use as a metaphor.
March 21, 2020
Sunrise, 6:53.
Actual sunrise time: 6:59. That's back before 7 again. The daylight today goes for 12 hours and 12 minutes. Nicely balanced between light and dark, with a slight tip toward light, those extra 12 minutes. Possibly of use as a metaphor.
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«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 371 of 371I liked the Partridge Family better than the Brady Bunch, but actually was really not that much into either one.
"But yes, your assertion is correct as well. And statisticians are not scientists, at least in my book."
You should read The Undoing Project. There's a section devoted to irrationality in medicine and science. Doctors are people, too!
I remember David Cassidy on The Apprentice. And it was an uncomfortable experience.
Hmm.
There is some Shirley Temple in Kira Nerys. Hadn't noticed that before.
meawhile norma desmond is demanding 750 billion bailout of municipalities in order to get anything done, what's that line about scorpions and frogs,
Mark seems to be stuck on old reruns. I haven't gotten that desperate yet.
"Chinese billionaire and Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma said he will donate ... one million face masks and 500,000 coronavirus testing kits to the US."
How is it that there is a billionaire in communist China?
Surely a delusional hack...
Gregory Rigano Retweeted
Arun Sridhar
@ArunRSridhar
·
Mar 17
UW Covid team is going to use Hydroxychloroquin for all patients warranting hospital admission. We came up with this quick and simple guideline for QTc cutoffs during treatment. Feel free to adapt and use if your hospital is using hydroxychloroquin for these pts. #COVID19
Trump approval soars .
Mark seems to be stuck on old reruns. I haven't gotten that desperate yet.
You mean the golf tournament was a rerun from 2018?
Seriously, though, people at the lunch table used to rib me because instead of watching the current year's Olympics, I preferred to watch reruns of old ones. (The ones where the amateurs competed, and not a bunch of pampered professionals. You know, there was a time when we condemned the East Germans for sending professionals to the Olympics. Now we're doing the same -- and again like the East Germans, we will send men who say they are women.)
Besides, I'm not desperate.
This might be the right week to start sniffing glue again.
Sure I can't tempt you, mock, with some Johnny Gage? Or were you more of a Roy DeSoto girl?
Just looking at state by state information:
NY-- 59 deaths in ~ 7,100 cases
WA-- 94 deaths in ~ 1,800 cases
Mar 17
UW Covid team is going to use Hydroxychloroquin for all patients warranting hospital admission.
One of the asshole reporters at the press conference today asked if people should take their medical advice from Trump rather than the CDC professionals.
I guess some hospitals are going to.
Ken B said...
No one here can come close to that level of stupid.
Thanks for your support.
“If anyone has an in with the higher ups at Amazon, Samsung, Panasonic, etc (or if any of them are reading AA because why wouldn’t they) please put Skype on your platforms. Samsung and Panasonic used to have it and removed it.”
We mostly moved away from Skype because, if I remember correctly, it is owned by Microsoft hand has horrible security.
NY-- 59 deaths in ~ 7,100 cases
WA-- 94 deaths in ~ 1,800 cases
As I noted yesterday, there was an early cluster of deaths related to a single nursing home in King County, WA. These residents were all infected at about the same time [by a staff member] and were all of a vulnerable segment of the population. South Korea had a couple of clusters related to a specific church that also caused early spikes in COVID-19-related deaths. There are too many variables to draw conclusions from numbers of deaths alone.
Evidence over hysteria
“And statisticians are not scientists, at least in my book.”
But then a lot of “scientists” are horrible statisticians. Uncharted of the CAGW/Climate Change hoax is built on bad statistics, starting with Mann’s Hockey Stick.
Mark notes: Now we're doing the same -- and again like the East Germans, we will send men who say they are women.
And we owe a few Russian women athletes an apology.
My neighbor is a nurse. He travels to about 5 different hospitals during his rounds. He is on the front lines wearing all those layers of haz-matt suits, gloves and protection.
I want to stay away from him. but I also want to talk to him when this is over.
So many aspects of this Crisis that Althouse is not covering: --Empty city streets once bustling --How the rich are gaining access to Tests but not the poor --Class warfare in the Hamptons etc. etc. I know, I know, it's only what interests her. It's gotten to the point where I browse the Althouse Blog to see what she won't be covering, more than what is covered. Creative disinterest.
Good that your neighbor is under all that gear -- and hopefully disinfects before and after each locale -- because that's a lot of potential hot zones to be going to and potentially spreading to the others.
Too bad that we commenters don't have the ability to discuss those things that AA isn't.
Update: Security cam footage at one location shows an AMC Gremlin exiting while spilling Prep H out a rust hole. Bumper sticker reads "Conserve Conservatism".
Damn, it is cold in Florence Italy. It is forecast to warm up next week. But the forecast is looking bad all week.
They are still (N)1.1^x.
Italy is screwed.
now then
Mockturtle- I've yet to see any information on the vector that caused the staff member to become infected. That's part of why I think the virus has been here (western US) longer than since mid-January.
Optimism from Axios:
"Why we’re writing this story: Some readers tell us they think virus coverage has been overly dramatic. So we wanted to share with you the consensus of what the most clear-eyed, serious, optimistic people are saying, as a way to focus our minds.
Tens of thousands of Americans die, we have double-digit unemployment for months, countless businesses die, retirements are wiped out, and the nation is saddled with once unimaginable debt.
That, folks, is the best case scenario we're facing.
That's if we're lucky — and doesn't even mention the lost graduations, honeymoons, weddings, and other important missed milestones.
Here's an example: A survey of epidemiology experts, posted by a scholar at UMass Amherst and reported by FiveThirtyEight, predicted that the number of cases reported by the end of this month would most likely fall somewhere between 10,500 and 81,500.
The survey was taken Monday and Tuesday.
We’re already right around 20,000 cases, so the lower end of those estimates is out the window.
The same survey anticipates about 200,000 deaths in the U.S. this year, but experts have established a range that stretches from as few as 19,000 deaths to as many as 1.2 million.
A true best-case scenario would look a lot like the response in places like Singapore and South Korea, which were able to quickly “flatten the curve” and bring the number of new cases under control.
But the U.S. simply has not been doing the things that worked in those countries, so whatever our best-case scenario may be, it’s not that good.
You're missing some quotation marks in that description of what Axios is peddling.
And now for something completely different:
A sports commentator giving play by play of regular daily life since there's no sports being played.
That part about "the most clear-eyed, serious" is the tell.
Krap, if that is supposed to be 'optimism', I do nto want to see their pessimistic take.
On a lighter note, if I am supposed to wear a mask in public - where exactly whould I buy one? There have not been any masks for sale in pugetopolis for weeks now. Can one of you hoarders send me a couple?
I suppose I could just wear my motorcycle helmet and call it good though.
A sports commentator giving play by play of regular daily life since there's no sports being played.
That's good stuff right there.
"Can one of you hoarders send me a couple?"
I have only one but until I can get more, I'm making some. Google "medical mask hack."
Tens of thousands of Americans die, we have double-digit unemployment for months, countless businesses die, retirements are wiped out, and the nation is saddled with once unimaginable debt.
How will this play out for real estate? Defaults and price drops or stability as a safe haven?
Since there is a lag time between the existence of a “case” and death, if it happens. Looking at deaths and the number of current cases is impossible. We won’t really know anything close to the true number for 2-1/2 weeks.
For those guys writing sunny analyses about how this is no different than other flus, as far as how it is spreading, please show your work as to how you modeled those previous flus taking into account this social distancing that is to my mind unprecedented. Also the assumption of a huge number of asymptomatic people walking around, cutting the fatality rate, please explain how you factored in the accuracy of the test by something more than charicterizing the tests as “really accurate” since I can’t put a number on that.
In China, the test they were using, per the FDA, had a 40% false negative rate. I just can’t find figures for the test we are using, but if it is as low as 98%, it’s creating a misleading sense of comfort.
Not that I think we can or should hold this posture for much longer. We have to restart the economy, even if it means that people are gonna die, because either they are gonna die anyway, or the thing is way overblown (like I said, if that’s your position, you can answer my questions above.) But it doesn’t matter, it’s just one position makes people feel better right now.
How will this play out for real estate? Defaults and price drops or stability as a safe haven?
It will be hit as well. This week we had a client chose to break a deal and lose a substantial deposit rather than close. The prolerty likely has lost more value than the amount of the deposit. It will impact the entire asset class...
Vermont: The Health Department reported 16 new cases of the COVID-19 on Saturday, including seven at a nursing care center where a resident on Thursday became one of the first of two Vermont deaths from the disease.
Burlington Health & Rehabilitation Center has been following Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance on treatment and isolation of COVID-19 patients since March 16, according to a Health Department news release.
The ages of newly announced patients who tested positive for the coronavirus range from the 20s to older than 80.
Here's statistic I'd like to see for Jan-March 2020:
Jan-March Wuhan Flu Deaths
Jan-March All other Flue Deaths.
BTW, since we're shutting everything else down, lets shut the NYSE and NASDAX down. All these stock fluctuations are causing needless stress and panic.
"Can one of you hoarders send me a couple?"
I have only one but until I can get more, I'm making some. Google "medical mask hack."
Good advice. Some very simple...
is the virus directly responsible for the death?
and/or are the deaths caused by weakening of the cells so that bacteria
comes in and finishes the job?
If so, the Z-pak could kill the bacteria?
any thoughts on this?
No, it’s a viral pneumonia. Zithromycin has some antiviral and anti inflammatory properties.
Coved-19 causes severe lower respiratory disease in susceptible individuals by precipitating a rapid, out of control immune response known as a cytokine storm. I don’t think it’s known whether Zithro helps by attacking the virus itself or by preventing that immune system overreaction.
Since there is a lag time between the existence of a “case” and death
The numbers are completely muddled by the recent increase in cases being identified because we’ve just started testing more. There’s not been any leveling off of deaths, they are increasing and that increase is likely to start accelerating this week. If it doesn’t accelerate as quickly as Italy’s curve, then we can start to hope that our travel bans and business closures are helping.
My oldest sister was a "Brady Bunch" fan- the show ran in syndication regularly during the late 70s to early 80s on the local stations, though she had stopped watching by 1980 or so.
Don't tell me that the movie Conan the Barbarian is nearly 40 years old.
That's back when Ahnold had an accent. It's hard to detect, but it's there.
"What is best in life?"
And now for something completely different:
While Stephen Colbert Argues ‘Chinese Virus’ Is Racist, LetRevisit some of his Asian jokes
On the lockdowns- what is the endpoint? This question is for those who support the effort.
All of them are promised as "two weeks", more or less, but I can tell you right now that new cases will keep rising as long as testing keeps rising- it really is that simple. If we are running 100,000 tests/day in early April, we will see 10,000 "new" cases every day. If it is 500,000, then it will be 50,000 new cases/day. The body of the infected is large enough that the testing today is only revealing a small fraction of it, and that body will still be there in early April, and probably into the Summer, though it probably will be shrinking at some point as herd immunity takes hold.
So, what do you recommend if, on April 21st, just to pick a day a month from now, about the lockdowns? End them all, or not.
I will tell you this- you can't keep "vital" production going when everything else is shut down- it is far more interconnected than you realize. At some point, stores of vital goods like gas, medicines, food, electrical equipment etc. are drawn down enough that the people doing the distributing figure there is no point in continuing to work, and claim it them for themselves as trade material to survive. That point is a lot closer than some of you seem to think.
Tomcc: I've been scouring news sources looking for an answer for you. At the time, I read that it was a health worker at the facility, in her 40's, who either had traveled or her mother had traveled and contracted the virus. I can't find it now! Wish I'd saved it.
As later news stories have shown CDC Report
there were many staff members showing symptoms who weren't tested but were allowed to work, not only there but at other facilities. These places are always short-staffed and employees are never really discouraged from coming to work sick. And staying home means no pay for the nursing assistants, who don't get sick leave. In view of inspection and history results, there could be litigation.
rcocean, please don't say 'other flu', since the Wuhan virus NOT a flu. Thank you. :-)
"What is best in life?”
If we have learned anything in these past few years, it’s not the lamentations of women.
Mockturtle- thanks so much for making the effort!
"...there could be litigation." It is the American way!
Mockturtle- Not sure if Blogger consumed my earlier comment, or if it's in moderation, but thank you for making that effort!
Our house is recently on the market. We'll see what sort of interest there is, whether there are offers or not. We do not have to sell. Low offers will not be accepted. There is no problem for us to stay here and wait for the return of a better market. Not everyone will be in that position - may take years to recover.
So that "most clear-eyed, serious, optimistic" view thinks we might get 1.2 million deaths when we are at 324 today and the growth per day is leveling off at about 50 - 60 right now.
1,200,000 / 50 = 24,000 days (65 years). Ok, lets double the death rate to 100 and it takes 33 years. OK, OK, lets quadruple it to 200 and it takes 16 years. I can live with any of those.
I could be way off of course, but I'm not an "expert" and if we end up where we are aiming right now, those people should never be asked their opinion again.
"How will this play out for real estate? Defaults and price drops or stability as a safe haven?"
We watched this for the second time because neither of us could remember how it ended. Turns out, for most of those who survived the plague, life became unimaginably good. Sort of a "two girls for every boy" situation: plenty of real estate for everyone.
https://www.thegreatcourses.com/courses/the-black-death-the-worlds-most-devastating-plague.html
This is really important. Without one people will just start to wander back into the public world.
A Reopening Plan
"I suppose I could just wear my motorcycle helmet and call it good though."
That's thinking outside the box! Other examples here.
"Jan-March Wuhan Flu Deaths
Jan-March All other Flue Deaths. “
So you can get a meaningless number and then blather on how 50, or 150 thousand, or 1.5 million deaths don’t matter?
Tomcc: No, I got both. There's just a moderation delay I think. ;-)
So that "most clear-eyed, serious, optimistic" view thinks we might get 1.2 million deaths when we are at 324 today and the growth per day is leveling off at about 50 - 60 right now.
Where are you getting that 'information'?
the growth per day is leveling off at about 50 - 60 right now.
Day's not over yet and we're up to 84, more than double what it was 3 days ago -- we just have to wait and see if it's a blip or part of a trend.
It's too soon to tell.
Reporting from Ground Zero (<5 miles from Kirkland Nursing Home).
A former co-worker is likely recovering from Coved-19. I say probably because he had all of the symptoms (so did his wife), but he suffered through it and is now feeling better. He had the option of trying to get the Univ. of Wash test site a few days ago, but the effort to drive there wasn't worth it since he was beginning to feel better.
He's been posting quite a bit on FB, with various graphs and analysis (he's an aerospace engineer) and when I mentioned that there were some indications that WA might be flattening the curve (my source: Nate Silver!), he ran the number/plots/graphs and . . . .he agreed that the numbers look promising.
It's clear to me that the original WA deaths - a majority from one location - created a great deal of fear and panic. They were looking like "Italy" numbers.
I have been critical of Gov. Inslee in the past (recent past - his slam against VP Pence was unforgiveable), but he's been resisting the pressure to "lock it down" so far, relying instead on common sense approaches that still allow commerce and manufacturing to continue. For instance, I was able to take clothes into the dry cleaners today (They are shut down in CA, NY, PA, IL).
And, since I've decided to beat this particular drum:
How to make facemasks
I included a link so my comment may be stuck in limbo somewhere... but anyway,
get 1.2 million deaths when we are at 324 today and the growth per day is leveling off at about 50 - 60 right now.
Today is not over yet and the death toll is already 84, more than double what it was on 3/18. We need to wait and see if it's a blip or part of a trend. It's too soon to tell.
3/19 and 3/20 had encouraging, lower death #s, but today's obliterates that mini-trend. :(
The fact that the Chinese government is not reporting any new cases is in no way reassuring. Just the opposite. There should be some neutral observers there supporting those reports. That doesn't include WHO.....I'm in the old cohort. I have a decent enough retirement income. I can't tell if I'm one of the blessed or the damned. At my age, the mortality rate usually rises to 100%, but the coronavirus might hasten things along. I'm at greater risk of death, but I don't think life will present any added challenges. Younger people have more problems than I'd like to face. They're the big losers in this mess....I wonder if anyone is considering at what point the cure will be worse than the disease. You just can't shut the world down indefinitely.
The parish has arranged additional time for the priests to hear confessions tomorrow because "a directive from Governor Brown asking non-essential personnel to stay at home except to obtain supplies" is expected. If I can go out of my house to buy groceries, or to the pharmacy, or to work at some job deemed 'essential', or to take the air, I wonder how the state can forbid me to go out of the house to go to confession? I can in fact walk for 20 minutes or so and get to a parish church nearer to home than mine downtown, should they shut down the buses. It leaves me shaking my head; I don't take a crowd of 11 people with me when I go to confession, nor does anyone, in my experience.
The current article at the Oregonian is here. Several Portland-based groups of bureaucrats, medicos, and nurses have been lobbying for the statewide order.
The pressure is building on Oregon’s Gov. Kate Brown to issue a strict statewide “stay at home” order in hopes of preventing spread of the coronavirus....
Brown will issue an order of her own on Monday, but it won’t be a stay-at-home order. “They will be further measures to insure aggressive social distancing,” said Nik Blosser, Brown’s chief of staff.
Brown is frustrated that her social-distancing efforts to date seem to have been laughed off by a significant segment of Oregonians.... [People have been going to the beach, ahem.]
Brown repeatedly implored begged [sic] Oregonians to isolate themselves in their homes to protect them from the virus. But at the same time, she made it clear she wouldn’t sign a stay-at-home order.
We'll see. It's been a lovely day, in any event.
"So that "most clear-eyed, serious, optimistic" view thinks we might get 1.2 million deaths when we are at 324 today and the growth per day is leveling off at about 50 - 60 right now.”
I don’t think that that is very well written, but I am pretty sure you read it wrong. I think he meant 324, then 374, then 424 then 475, then you get something like this: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=sum%28+325%2Bn*50%29+%28n+from+1+to+365%29 which makes a horrible number.
Which grows after a year into a giant number, which can’t really be what he meant. Anyway, there is a neat tool for you to screw around with that I had forgotten all about until I thought about your post.
where are you getting this
Joan, I agree, but those clear eyed estimates would require an incredible acceleration from where we are, which we should already be seeing evidence of. These early numbers are without much of any mitigating effort getting going. We are just getting started with that now, and that counter attack by us will accelerate from here on.
"Where are you getting that 'information'?/
The 50 - 60 was from a few hours ago, which is why I double and quadrupled it in my scenarios, and still required many years to get to their estimate.
"3/19 and 3/20 had encouraging, lower death #s, but today's obliterates that mini-trend. :("
I don't think so. From your link,
USA population: 330 Million
Yearly Total Deaths in USA: 2.8 Million
Monthly Total Deaths in USA: 230,000
No. of Corona Desths in USA after 3 Months: 340
The numbers are tiny any way you look at them.
After watching the data for 8 days now, I've finally seen something that appears to be good news on the worldometers site: Active cases= 26,171; mild condition= 26,107; serious or critical= 64.
I'm hopeful that we will have gathered enough information in the next week to ten days to make informed decisions.
Yes. Unfortunately that won't stop a lot of governors from making uninformed decisions in the meantime.
There was a blip up to 84 deaths in the US today. But that worldometers site also shows that of 26,500 or so active cases, only 64 are "critical." That would suggest many fewer deaths tomorrow, but who knows.
I just checked the Worldometer site and as of the update 10 minutes ago it shows 38 new U.S. deaths for today (3/21), 49 for yesterday (3/20), both days down from 57 on Thursday (3/19).
I don't where the 84 comes from. When I check news sources, everybody talks about cases and for some reason is ignoring the new deaths numbers, which according to Worldometer are very encouraging.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Aunty Trump, I'm talking new deaths, so you are right, I did write it poorly. It's not growth in the rate, but just new deaths added to the tally daily, and that has dropped two days in a row.
Robert E. Howard's Conan The Barbarian is 87+ years old now. He first appeared in the December 1932 issue of Weird Tales and the rest is history.
Unfortunately Howard, while he was making a decent living for a free-lance writer in the Depression, never got rich off of his character. Today "Conan" is an industry.
FACT: Being relatively rich is a significant factor for life expectancy.
Now somebody argue for why we should cause the economy to contract by 25% or more to save lives.
And all you people in favor of completely disrupting society, your rejoinder of "show your work" is hereby turned around to you.
The trade-offs you prefer are not justified.
Real estate: hotels down to occupancies in the money losing teens. Hundreds of thousands of employees furloughed from front desk managers to housekeepers. Meetings business gone to zero and planners unemployed. Industrial rents not being paid as supply lines have dried up and warehouses are emptying. Unemployed renters will slow pay their rents. Offices are empty and rents withheld to conserve cash. Debt service for the entire asset class in jeopardy. Lenders locked up. Zero loans being made. Asset sales impossible because valuations have collapsed and sales offers withdrawn. So, no, real estate not a safe haven. If you own it now free and clear of debt you may be ok if you can reduce or cease operations and ride it out.
About this 1.2 million dead from coronavirus. Awful, horrible, tragic.
That is about 40 percent of the 2.8 million people who already die from other causes each year. That's 2.8 million who die and, while tragic for those who knew the deceased, go entirely unnoticed by the rest of the country.
Even if 300 million people were infected with a one percent death rate, that would "only" double the number of deaths in an average year.
Sad, but not devastating.
Marc, I too live in Portland and I'm pleased that the governor (whom I greatly dislike) has, so far, resisted the totalitarian impulses of the other bureaucrats and officials. I'm looking at you, Ted Wheeler.
Tomcc,
I asked about that the other day. If there are only 64 current serious/critical cases, what's the problem with medical resources? Something doesn't jive. Is it Worldometer? I hope not, becuase beside the encouraging data there, it's a great site. You can resort much of the data and the updates are current, according to them.
About 100 will have died today in the U.S. from coronavirus. Again, very tragic.
Meanwhile, about 7,800 people will have died today from other causes.
Perspective.
Mark, where do you get that number (100)?
"Somebody with a house along the course called the police. The police came ..." No doubt someone important in the HOA. The kind who report you for parking your boat in the driveway over night or leaving your trash cans visible from the street.
About this 1.2 million dead from coronavirus. Awful, horrible, tragic.
That is about 40 percent of the 2.8 million people who already die from other causes each year. That's 2.8 million who die and, while tragic for those who knew the deceased, go entirely unnoticed by the rest of the country.
Even if 300 million people were infected with a one percent death rate, that would "only" double the number of deaths in an average year.
Sad, but not devastating.
Yes, I'm sorry if this is distressing to some, but it's obvious to me that if you can't save lives without sending the world into a depression, then you don't save lives. Life is for the living and no one lives forever.
About Worldometer -- the day (3/21) isn't over yet.
They probably shouldn't post partial numbers as the day progresses without some kind of disclaimer.
We won't know today's full number until tomorrow.
William observes: The fact that the Chinese government is not reporting any new cases is in no way reassuring. Just the opposite. There should be some neutral observers there supporting those reports. That doesn't include WHO..
Remember that, initially, both WHO and the US offered assistance to China and the assistance was refused. I still suspect that China didn't want anyone looking too deeply into the origins of this outbreak.
bagoh20:
I don't where the 84 comes from.
Under "Latest Updates":
March 21 (GMT)
7301 new cases and 84 new deaths in the United States
Yep, 84 Wuhan virus deaths over the past 24 hours in the US.
I'll tell you this though --
In all my years, in all the times I've seen it, I've never really understood the whole thing about the Medusan ambassador. What's so great about him/her/it, that hardly anyone can interact with him/her/it without going insane?
About Worldometer -- the day (3/21) isn't over yet.
Yes, it is, in GMT.
Worldometers is currently at 85. Rounding upward.
Mark
I bet few of those deaths go unnoticed actually. Maybe it’s just you.
But deaths are not the only issue. How can the country cope with tens of millions falling ill all at once, and staying ill for weeks? What’s the effect of that? Because the virus isn’t binary, death or minor. You get the full spread. And you don’t get it spread out over time if you ignore it. You get a flood of sick and dying followed by another flood of sick and dying, and another. And you get much more death that way, because you chose to be Italy.
And it isn’t over in Italy yet. It’s still getting worse.
Let me ask you. Have there ever been riots in America? In LA for example. So, we take a Mark approach, let it rage, and what odds do you give that society won’t collapse, at least for a while, in LA? And not just LA.
What would we ever do, ken, without busybodies?
Nobody on the "do everything to stop this virus" side wants to take the challenge to balance the increase in deaths that will come as poverty increases?
Can we trade-off the increases in suicide? Drug overdoses? Exposure? Reduced access to medical services? The US economy is going to lose about 1.4 to 1.5 trillion dollars this quarter.
And that's going to be felt broadly even by people who feel above the fray.
"They probably shouldn't post partial numbers as the day progresses without some kind of disclaimer."
They state that the numbers are as of GMT + 8 so at 8am, and it's 3am there now, so I think that means we have about 5 more hours in their day.
They state the numbers are GMT, but the dates are U.S. dates, which are not GMT.
So whatever that means.
In the hours since it has been tomorrow on GMT, the numbers for today (3/21) have continued to increase.
A relative works in hospital supply chain in Wisconsin and told this story. The hospital needs hand wipes and can't get enough but they could be handmade from medical grade alcohol but there isn't any. He went to local brewery to see if they could distill the alcohol and they could - it has be over 60% or something - but they could do it, and would, but regulations prevent this solution. Someone needs to cut this red tape (and there has to be protection from the goddamn lawyers for people who help out the hospitals.) The rate of infection may be decreasing, I believe it is, at the tail of the bell curve, but the coming raw numbers in the middle bulge of the curve are large and may be overwhelming for the hospitals. That is what happened in Italy and in a few places in Italy 1/3 of the medical personnel died. That's scary for those working in or for the hospitals. And then - red tape, preventing solutions that would protect them. It's just wrong.
Blogger Birkel said...
“FACT: Being relatively rich is a significant factor for life expectancy.
Now somebody argue for why we should cause the economy to contract by 25% or more to save lives.“
That’s a good question Birkel. And it’s one reasonwhy the current shut it all down approach taken in some places cannot work. But it’s also a reason why a “let it rage” approach cannot work either. You don’t get a constant flow of sick and dying. you get a giant wave with the medical system beyond shattered, and most things suddenly broken. That is potentially much more crippling.
So we need to discuss that question. But “don’t worry be happy” isn’t a helpful suggestion.
In fact, the number has gone up by 3 in the last ten minutes or so. Now at 88.
Let me put it this way:
A Known-Known in this situation is economic contraction unlike any seen in any developed economy anywhere, ever. The ripples through the credit markets, banks, and so forth will mean promises of 4-5 trillion THIS QUARTER from the federal government. Meanwhile the velocity of money has dropped in a heretofore unprecedented fashion. So injecting this money will not IN ANY WAY replace real economic activity. This pain will be felt by everybody.
A Known-Unknown is how many people will get sick and or die from this virus. Preparing for the worst case scenario instead of the median case has to be justified.
Arguing that the easily provable negative result is preferable requires extraordinary proof. Show that proof.
Bureaucratic obtuseness, wildswan.
Meanwhile, here's an example of bureaucratic obtuseness from my former state --
"Online learning won’t count towards a school district’s instructional time requirements mandated by the state, Michigan Department of Education Deputy Superintendents Venessa Keesler and Kyle Guerrant informed local districts Friday."
So because of "rules" they will prohibit students from moving on to the next grade or even graduate because the online learning "doesn't count."
Of course, at some point commonsense will prevail -- but don't ever expect it from bureaucrats.
BagoH20, this is the first time I've noticed that information on worldometers. I'd like to believe it's reliable, but as you noted, something seems amiss. If something seems too good to be true...
OK, that's weird. The world numbers show the U.S. at 88, but the U.S. States show a total of 42 for all states plus some cruise ships added. I notice that the two pages have different reset times. The world one is GMT 0+0, and the U.S one is GMT 0+8. Both 24hr hour periods though. So the higher one that shows 88 started earlier and is done. The lower one started later and is not yet. The numbers can be different, as different time periods, so you need to compare the same ones. Not ideal.
wildswan said...
And then - red tape, preventing solutions that would protect them. It's just wrong.
Balanced against that is medical personnel relying on something that ultimately proves to have been incorrectly made and worthless.
China is currently pumping thousands of face masks out on to Amazon and other on-line sites. Would you trust your life, or even just the chance of getting a bad flu, on these? Established, trusted supply lines are what give people confidence in products.
The obvious answer is this:
Those vulnerable populations must sequester. The federal government can pick up the delivery fees for groceries, supplies, meds, etc for anybody who is older or has medical conditions that require sequester. People continue to work.
Testing goes wide for anybody with underlying symptoms. Those people who test positive get immediate (no one week delay) unemployment benefits and shelter in place for two weeks. (Re-test before re-admission to broader society.)
And we make it to 85+ degree days in Florida so we can predict how the summer temperatures affect this virus. All without killing the economy and with the federal government making far fewer capital outlays.
I am not trying to give a broadly detailed answer.
Ann Marie is annoyed because, in inviting her parent to dinner, Daddy insists on having "the talk" with Donald Hollinger.
Oh, well, now I'm just tired of reading numbers. Check it again in the morning.
March 21 (GMT)
7401 new cases and 88 new deaths in the United States
269 new cases and 11 new deaths in Washington State [source]
112 new cases in Massachusetts, total rises to 525 [source]
New York now has over 10,000 cases [source] New York is doing more tests than any other state in the United States, according to Governor Cuomo, who said 45,000 tests have been performed in New York State, compared to 23,000 in California (which has twice the population) and 23,000 in Washington State (with 1/3 of the population, therefore maintaining a higher number of tests per capita compared to New York)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Here comes ARM with his "down with ingenuity" argument.
How fucking stupid can you be?
Ann does have that cute/affecting squeaky voice.
Surprising that she kind of dropped off the map after That Girl, except for Free to Be, You and Me, and a smattering of guest star roles.
Someone doesn't understand the meaning of the word 'balance'.
Well, now worldometers has changed entirely.
March 22 (GMT)
2618 new cases and 43 new deaths in the United States
March 21 (GMT)
4824 new cases and 46 new deaths in the United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Birkel suggests: Those vulnerable populations must sequester.
That makes sense but doesn't solve the whole problem. While old people are more apt to die from the virus, younger adults are just as apt to need hospitalization and even intensive care [at least according to European and Asian reports]. So the onslaught of cases needing vital medical resources is just as serious even if the death rate would go down.
If we can get New York under control the rest of the country would be looking pretty good.
March 20 (GMT)
5594 new cases and 49 new deaths in the United States.
March 19 (GMT)
4530 new cases and 57 new deaths in the United States
March 18 (GMT)
2848 new cases and 41 new deaths in the United States
March 17 (GMT)
1748 new cases and 23 new deaths in the United States
March 16 (GMT)
983 new cases and 18 new deaths in the United States.
NYC is the hotspot right now.
We still can't come out and play for another week or so, until the full incubation period ends to strangle this baby in the crib, but the numbers are hopeful that we won't need to lock-down for several months, like those who insist on doom have been saying.
Of course, it still could all go to hell. But we could also all get hit by a bus the first day the doors are opened.
By 'younger adults' I mean younger than 65. But Wuhan reported hundreds of children hospitalized with the virus, as well. One Lancet article reporting a study of 99 COVID-19 pneumonia patients in Wuhan showed the average age to be 55. Thirty-two percent were under 50 and twice as many males as females were afflicted.
"Daddy insists on having "the talk" with Donald Hollinger."
Lou Marie, played by Lew Parker, is hilarious.
It's important to remember that although infection can get exponential becuase of the nature of contagion, dying from the disease is not in itself contagious. One person dying does not cause others to die, and since the fatality rate is low, deaths can be brought under control even with rapid growth in cases. Two things matter here: deaths, and the cost of our response, which also costs lives. Deaths are still remaining relatively low compared to case counts. They may be growing at times or even doubling, but the absolute numbers are low.
Brikel: "The obvious answer is this:
Those vulnerable populations must sequester."
Etc. Been beating that drum here.
The insanity has to stop. Stein's law rules.
"Real estate: hotels down to occupancies in the money losing teens. Hundreds of thousands of employees furloughed from front desk managers to housekeepers."
And so on. The insanity accumulates. It has to stop.
OK, now I'm confused. Both pages (world and U.S.) show new deaths at 46. Corrections to the data? I hope that's right. It would be grata data.
mockturtle:
Your effort to avoid the entire thrust of my comments is noted.
Sebastian,
I have seen your prior comments.
I'm not alarmist in any direction. I am a realist. Numbers matters. And the numbers right now point to a loss of 1.4 to 1.5 trillion dollars and that is an insane price to pay. Period. Full stop.
Medium article has been taken down. The fix is in!
Wow. Is Charlie Martin totally fucking crazy?
He posted and endorsed an article. It was an analysis by a viral marketer claiming he could do epidemiology. It was unreliable and the comments at medium highlighted errors. Some of us objected at Instapundit.
Then Medium *took the article down*. If you are a serious person I would expect that might make you think twice. Why did the site which put it up suddenly, after criticism, take it down?
Instead Charlie Martin found a fringe site that saved a copy, relinked, and bumped.
That is pretty bad. No thought or investigation of why the thing was yanked. Just double down. And it affects my opinion of Instapundit as a site. If Glenn does not act it will affect my view of him too.
"One Lancet article reporting a study of 99 COVID-19 pneumonia patients in Wuhan showed the average age to be 55. Thirty-two percent were under 50 and twice as many males as females were afflicted."
It's difficult to compare Wuhan to the United States directly. Cultural, sanitary, and environmental conditions do not match.
Just for shits and giggles, and without considering perverse incentives, corruption, etc...
--------------
One million extra deaths, in some wild-ass forecast.
1.4 trillion cost for this shutdown in Q1 (plus further costs if this keeps up into Q2.... plus the spillover effects...)
Great.
Let's write one million insurance policies, decedent to be named later, at 1.4 million dollars each. Any estate suffering such a death gets the payout. You must prove by a preponderance of the evidence that the death was in excess and caused by The Wu Flu.
Any policies not cashed within one year are void.
Let's hedge the risk.
Ken B,
Are you paid to Debby Downer?
No thought or investigation of why the thing was yanked.
You're right. No explanation was offered. It just disappeared. All the information in it came straight from the CDC and the WHO, that I recall. So what's the problem?
Birkel
No but I used to get paid to correct errors in logic and mathematics. Now I do it for free.
Pants
Then you remember wrong. But in most circles when an article is yanked it suggests there was a problem with it. That never occurred to Martin. Or to you I guess.
One possibility: there were serious error alleged, the site took it down, and sent the complaints to the author for response.
I've been YouTubing pipe bands all day and, checking the time, into the evening.
I haven't been to the Portland Highland games in a few years since some stupid Obama rule made it impossible for Canadian bands to come down. Our NW bands aren't as good and the music quality went down. Then, I seemed to have other Father's Day plans.
With the cancellation of St. Paddy's, I haven't had my kilt and pipe band fix. I am really starting to jones.
Paid was the charitable explanation.
Now you're breaking my heart to tell me you are just a cunt for free on the interwebz.
Weird brag.
Then you remember wrong. But in most circles when an article is yanked it suggests there was a problem with it. That never occurred to Martin. Or to you I guess.
One possibility: there were serious error alleged, the site took it down, and sent the complaints to the author for response.
Would look way less memory-holey if they left it up with a note that its claims and/or data had been disputed, with specifics.
It’s not clear to me if Martin or Driscoll bumped that withdrawn article. Maybe it was Driscoll who was the irresponsible drooling idiot not Martin.
You're just blathering about suppressing a point of view that contradicts your own if you can't say what was wrong with it.
OK, now I'm confused. Both pages (world and U.S.) show new deaths at 46.
Bagoh, check the date. WorldOmeter is in GMT and now 3/22. New day, new deaths.
Birkel asserts: Your effort to avoid the entire thrust of my comments is noted..
I was making no effort whatsoever other than reporting hospitalizations related to Wuhan virus. If the main thrust of this strategy is to 'flatten the curve', the reason for this strategy is to avoid large numbers of people needing hospitalization all at once. People in the hospital--especially ICU--is more a drain on resources than is death.
Right now I'm watching/listening a 2-hour-long New Zealand 2018 Parade of Pipe Bands. I know three tunes by name, Amazing Grace, Scotland the Brave, and the Campbells are Coming. I don't care what the rest of them are called. I can't karaoke them like the Ramones.
Did everyone see the nude pic of near-governor of Florida Andrew Gillum on the floor comatose?
It's difficult to compare Wuhan to the United States directly. Cultural, sanitary, and environmental conditions do not match.
Fair enough but France also reported that more than half of their ICU patients were under 50 years old.
Pants: Before I turn in, how was your day? You really are in my prayers.
Pants
I said what I thought was wrong with over at Instapundit. And I pointed to other more detailed critiques.
Oh, and be sure to explain why you don’t hire your auto mechanic when you need surgery.
wildswan said...
He went to local brewery to see if they could distill the alcohol and they could - it has be over 60% or something - but they could do it, and would, but regulations prevent this solution.
Both Bacardi and Serralles have large rum distilleries here in pr. Both also make 70% rubbing alcohol as a sideline. 70% is whats needed for sanitizer. Stronger is less good.
They are shifting a bunch of distillation from rum to alcohol. I doubt any permission is needed.
A distillery in ohio was expecting it to take 2 weeks to get permission to make sanitizer. They got it in less than 2 days.
Why a brewery, anyway? Did you mean to say distillery?
John Henry
Hey mock :) Thank you for the prayers. My little daughter got to do a video call with her favorite substitute grandma at church which was the highlight of both of their days, and a friend stopped by to drop off bread (I'd been unable to get any and was about to bake some when she said she'd found some at the store) and we had a chat which was very welcome. One day closer to normal again. I hope you are well!
Both distilleries and breweries are now involved in producing hand sanitizers. They're working to get around the tax issue, as the product is mostly ethanol.
Thanks, Pants. Been thinking of you.
mockturtle:
Your inability to struggle with 1.4 trillion in cost is noted.
If you wish only to consider a single metric (illness from Wu Flu caused by Winnie Xi Flu)) then you are unserious.
I see no one rose to the challenge. The John Cochrane essay linked above by Stevew is something you should read.
When I see people talking about closing non-essential businesses and keeping open essential businesses, I know I am listening to a moron who can't think past the first step on any issue. You may think insulin production is essential, and cardboard manufacture isn't, but I assure you can't do the one without the other. It hurts my brain to read the list of "non-essential" businesses. At the state level, the voters have elected a ton of morons to governor. I am looking at you, California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, and everywhere else that has declared lockdowns with absolutely no fucking plan for what to do 2 weeks from now. It is almost like not a single fucking one of them put any thought into it at all.
"Fair enough but France also reported that more than half of their ICU patients were under 50 years old"
Okay. So?
Yancey Ward:
Any thoughts on my ideas, above?
People elide my comments.
Can you offer thoughts on the complexity I am offering?
Not a complex plan, Birkel. It is the plan I offered here 2 weeks ago now- isolate the vulnerable. The people most vulnerable are the elderly under the full care of others- nursing homes, demented relatives living with competent family members, and then the people in hospitals and rehab centers for other conditions.
The testing, if you have the resources, can go broad-based, but I would first make sure testing resources are devoted to continuous testing of the those people who care for the elderly and the sick- it is the only way to protect them.
If you read the stories coming out of Italy, it is blindingly obvious what happened- the carers of the elderly infected them, in homes, in nursing homes, and in hospitals. They wasted there testing resources on people who could have just isolated on the presentation of conditions, and didn't test enough of the medical personnel. Additionally, they didn't segregate the COVID-19 patients from everyone else in the hospitals. They should have set up completely separate facilities with dedicated personnel. We should be doing the same, and I don't know that we have yet. If the deaths in the US don't surpass more than 500/day, then we will have done a decent job, but not a perfect one.
My main worry right now is that I might have the eat the cat come next Summer. That is where we are heading on this trajectory.
Yes, I'm sorry if this is distressing to some …
Could’ve fooled me.
… but it's obvious to me that if you can't save lives without sending the world into a depression …
This is NOT 1929. The world and America are very different than when the last depression took place. I believe many lives in America can be saved without a resultant depression in the USA. I sincerely hope other countries can also avoid depression but that depends on each individual nation’s response, something over which our American leaders have very little control.
America has to buy some time – which Trump and his team are trying to do. Just several weeks of intensive suppression of the virus, using a variety of well-known methods in a comprehensive way, can and will save many lives. The economy can be bought back on line in phases over a period of months without collapsing.
… then you don't save lives.
The UK tried this. At first they decided to allow the virus to burn though the population and allow “herd immunity” to save them and keep the economy running pretty much as usual. But they fairly quickly realized what a total disaster this policy would be and are currently trying to change course.
I don’t blame the UK for that initial mistake. This Wuhan virus is a completely new situation and mistakes are inevitable in ANY novel situation. The real sin is not adjusting after policy is exposed as defective.
Life is for the living and no one lives forever.
I do not believe Pants is as cold as these 2 platitudes seem to indicate and which don’t even make logical sense, coupled together as they are. Ego sometimes drives folks into untenable positions. It has happened to me and it has probably happened to every last reader of this comment.
Let us also cut Trump and his team some slack. They are trying to balance lives against ruining the economy. Mistakes WILL be made because mistakes are unavoidable. Failing to adjust is the real crime.
Birkel & Yancy... +100
The Sultan has a take on Hand Sanitizer - Regulation Salad anyone?
http://sultanknish.blogspot.com/
Quite a wakeup call this Wuhan Virus is. Gotta give those chi coms a stern talking-to when this is over. Cheap TVs, expensive virus indeed.
Alcohol for sanitizer is not in short supply. Regulations and supply lines are the issue. Denatured is rubbing alcohol Denatured means additives to make it icky and poisonous to drink.
If the fed would ignore regs for a couple of weeks all the alcohol we need could be shipped to where ever packaging is done. But of course the feds are too slow. But the companies that do it for a living are screening bloody murder, because a bunch of interlopers are stealing their income stream.
I was at the local store, and there was no pork left. The irony, 8 blocks away sit about 1 million pound of boxed, frozen pork, ready to retailers. There is a packing house here. Kill, process, box, and, freeze pork. 3 shifts a day, 6 days a week. Why can't the go get some pork? Supply lines.
Mark said...
At some point, we are going to have to come out, breathe in, and let nature take its course. Whatever it may be.
I could not agree more. I have a project going on in my shop, and when I need to buy something, I get up and travel. This is the flu. A different strain of the flu, but the flu nonetheless.
This is the flu. A different strain of the flu, but the flu nonetheless.
Over the years on this blog this commentor and I have been allied issue-wise many times. He is usually a fair and thoughtful person and specializes in short, to the point comments that usually strike home to his debate opponents. Usually. Not this time.
Allen. Please remove your blindfold, buddy. This Wuhan virus is NOT the common cold or the ordinary flu. The people fighting the virus are not fear mongers OR mistaken in their actions, intentions and motivations.
In a completely different vein I recently stumbled across this satirist. I warn the religious reader that this fellow is a very intelligent atheist. I am not an atheist but I still find this takedown very perceptive and funny. Enjoy.
You have your thoughts on this subject, grackle, and I have mine. Leave it at that.
"Bagoh, check the date. WorldOmeter is in GMT and now 3/22. New day, new deaths."
Nope, when the world page said 88 earlier, that must have been a mistake. Today we see that there was actually a two day reduction in deaths. 3/19 = 57, 3/30 = 49, 3/21 = 46. Woohoo!
What the hell, I might come out and also say that not only is this the flu, but a milder flu than we've ever had. So weak that it isn't even making children sick. There, I said it.
"I might come" should have been "I might as well"
Blogger AllenS said...
What the hell, I might come out and also say that not only is this the flu, but a milder flu than we've ever had. So weak that it isn't even making children sick. There, I said it.
===========.
I immortalize this so he cannot come back in two weeks and stealth delete it.
You have your thoughts on this subject, grackle, and I have mine. Leave it at that.
Duly noted. But I worry about you, my friend. Please try to be a bit more prudent. It won’t hurt anything to err on the side of caution. I always look for your comments and they usually bring forth a smile or an outright belly-laugh. And I will continue to do so despite our current disagreement. I’m too old to hold stupid grudges anymore. Best of luck to you and yours in this mess.
I've been through a war, grackle. I was shot. I spent 3 months in the hospital until I was well enough to rejoin my unit. I did not panic then, and I'm not about to now.
AllenS, no one is asking you to panic.
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