"And if he does not suspend his campaign, immediately, then he and his supporters should be shamed and shunned.... Joe Biden has beaten him in every type of state... among nearly every demographic other than 'people under 35'... in most places by wide margins.... But Joe Biden has not yet reached the 1,991 delegate threshold required to mathematically clinch the nomination. And since delegates are being awarded proportionally, he might not cross that line until the end of April—and even this assumes that the votes are held roughly as scheduled. As a theoretical matter, Sanders can keep campaigning until then by claiming that the race has not yet been decided. But it has....We are in the midst of a global pandemic.... In order to have an election, a bunch of volunteers—most of them well over the age of 35—get together in a firehouse or a school cafeteria. They then interact with a steady stream of people at close range for a day. These people hand objects to the volunteers (driver licenses, voting ID cards) and are then handed other objects (ballots or forms) in return. They stand within arm’s length of one another. And if the turnout is heavy, the voters stand in a line, waiting as a group.... There’s no shame in losing a campaign. There is a great deal of shame in what Bernie Sanders is doing right now. He is harming America. He should stop."
From
"The Sanders Campaign Is a Menace to Public Health/Bernie Sanders can't beat Joe Biden. But he can force millions of people to risk being exposed to the coronavirus" by Jonathan V. Last (at Bulwark). There's a good account at the link about the actions of Ohio governor Mike DeWine putting off the primary and tangling with the state courts over the extent of his power to do so.
You know, I think Bernie understands this. I just checked to see if he's ended his campaign. I thought maybe he'd already declared an end. I found
"Bernie Sanders To 'Assess The Path Forward' For Presidential Campaign After Tuesday Losses" (Deadline). I expect a concession today. This morning.
UPDATE:
181 comments:
""And if he does not suspend his campaign, immediately, then he and his supporters should be shamed and shunned...”
Deplorables!
You know what will kill more people than Bernie's campaigning? Bernie's presidency.
Yes, Bernie needs to drop out.... says the Never Trumper who supports Biden. Its to stop the virus. How convenient... as the Church Lady would say. OF course, if it was Biden struggling to stop Bernie, the author would be giving us BS about how Biden shouldn't give in to panic, and needed to keep his campaign going.
I see nobody is talking about the 770 Super delegates. I assume they all will go for Biden. But Bernie needs to hang in their at least until New York and Pennsylvania.
Just call him Goldstein and have the nation devote two minutes a day to hating him, you damned people.
The Democrats call anyone who doesn't fall into line with their sick plan, even other candidates, a danger to society. Meanwhile the GOP consultant class counsels staying silent and letting the media have the field. Intolerable!
Boo hiss.
Bernie should certainly stop rallies. He should NOT stop arguing for what he believes in. We don’t need to anoint Joe Biden and ignore issues. Ideas still matter, as does character.
Last is a never Trumper who doesn’t want the embarrassment of endorsing a socialist. His advice aligns with his interest. He wants the other side to disarm. Isn’t this just civility bullshit? Or as another commenter put it, covidity bullshit.
It's just negotiations now. Bernie got ripped off by agreeing to a lake house to allow Hillary to win.
This time he wants an ocean front home.
Yes, Bernie needs to drop out
They're RIGHT, the SOONER he drops out of the democrat race, the sooner he can start his 3rd party!
From "The Sanders Campaign Is a Menace to Public Health..."
Need I say this? Socialism is always a menace to public health. Sanders has always been a menace to public health. Unless you like cat for dinner.
And if the virus is raging again (still) in November, will Joe Biden do the right thing?
Sanders who? Hes a non factor
Bernie's most ardent supporters are overwhelmingly the young. And unfortunately, many young people aren't talking this crisis as seriously as they should for a number of reasons, the most foremost being is that they believe that they're personally lower risk of serious illness if they contract the virus.
For example, there's some spring breakers who are recklessly filling up beaches in Florida. I'm usually strongly opposed to Social Media mobbing, but in this case they should all be named and shamed.
"There’s no shame in losing a campaign. There is a great deal of shame in what Bernie Sanders is doing right now. He is harming America. He should stop."
The same can said regarding Joe Biden and the general election in November. Give it up Joe. Trump is a shoe-in. Concede and let Trump focus on the COVID-19 crisis.
narciso: "Sanders who? Hes a non factor"
Sander's voters are bug factors...as is the next property Sanders wishes to acquire.
Perhaps the DNC could throw in an ATV along with the house...though that wont mollify the Bernie Bros.
The Dems are just going through the motions this year, anyway, knowing that Trump is a shoe-in. Even some Democrats are putting aside political rhetoric in cooperation efforts to stem the virus. If only the media would!
That’s not part of his contract Gilbar.
No calls for Tulsi to drop out? (She’s my favorite of the 3, btw). Typical male, not even seeing the female In a nonsexual role.
since the democrats are going to cancel the nomination race;
they completely understand, when President Trump cancels the November election, right?
I mean, we can ALL AGREE that it would be a:
A threat to public—and civic—health.
And if Jo Biden does not suspend his campaign, immediately, then he and his supporters should be shamed and shunned....
i mean, RIGHT? Shouldn't we ALL be rallying behind our President in times like these?
i mean, RIGHT?
It's the [public health], stupid!
@robother,
And if the virus is raging again (still) in November, will Joe Biden do the right thing?
Oh, pish-posh, robother, you silly thing!
Then, it'll be Trump who needs to step aside so that Biden can take office without all of us having to concern ourselves with something so trivial as an election.
The Greta Thunberg approach to campaigning “How Dare You!”
robother nails it. Will Ann be calling on Biden to stand down if we’re still in trouble after Labor Day? Would Biden be “helping” if he kept attacking the President?
Why would Biden ever talk about his COVID19 plans unless he thought it would be something that will need to be done come next January 21?
The mediaswine are picking a President, destroying the economy and imprisoning the country - except, of course for the actual prisoners who are being released (https://pjmedia.com/trending/jail-break-la-sheriff-releases-inmates-socially-distancing-them-from-jail-but-not-from-law-abidingcitizens/).
This is insanity.
My earlier comment: "Sander's voters are bug factors...as is the next property Sanders wishes to acquire." appeared to have a typo....but now I'm not so sure......
All Russian Assets should step aside from the real Poot's Poodle.
The longer he stays in the more nonrefundable campaign funds he accumulates, yes?
Joe Biden besides being an idiot and a grifter is also senile. Bernie is doing the Democrats a favor. The Dims best hope is to have a brokered convention and that the party nominates a sane, sensible and non-communist nominee.
Bernie candidacy is public health threat to only one person:
Joe Biden.
Well, you see, Bernie's the candidate drawing crowds, while all Biden's doing is drawing flies. No threat there.
The Bulwark is remarkable for its intellectual dishonesty and lack of fact based reporting. But then its run by Bill Kristol.
Trump is not a shoo-in. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/shock-biden-catches-trump-equal-odds-to-win
As others have asked, probing the limits of this new “don't rock the boat” rule, should Biden step aside for Trump? After all however disruptive a few primaries are a national campaign is more disruptive, more distracting, more divisive. Doesn’t the same logic apply with more force, now and in a few months?
And yet I think the last thing on Althouse’s mind is clearing a path for Donald Trump.
That's going to be the new thing, isn't it?
Out: Everyone I don't like is ....Hitler
In: Everyone I don't like is....a threat to public health.
Probably not going to be helpful.
Joe Biden has beaten him in every type of state... among nearly every demographic other than 'people under 35'... in most places by wide margins....
I wish the establishment hacks would apply a little consistency in designating the Bad Guy among voter demographics. I thought the voting patterns of "people under 35" were supposed to be the death knell, the Carousel, the last nail in the coffin, the stage hook, the sayooooonara to the "old, weird America", that annoying speed-bump on the road to globo-topia.
Oh well, I'm sure it's just a matter of seeing Bernie off, then we can get back to the regularly scheduled demographic triumphalism.
If I was running against a guy like Biden who has had tree strokes, one a frog hair from being fatal, I would not drop out.
I see YoungHegelian shares my view, but has put it more sharply.
Democracy can really be inconvenient sometimes. Nobody owes their vote to anybody and nobody has an obligation to make things easier for The Bulwark’s preferred candidate.
Math:
Biden currently has 1,164 pledged delegates, Sanders 879.Meaning Sanders 43%, Biden 57%. Bernie's gap is 285 delegates currently.
~755 delegates are to be assigned in planned primaries in the next 40 days (assuming no delayed primaries). NY, PA, and Wisconsin represent 544 of those.
If Biden had dropped out a month ago, as looked likely and many called for him to do, he wouldn't have had his "miraculous turnaround". Why should Bernie drop out now? He can stay in and hope for:
- Biden to say something really stupid relevant to NY, PA, and Wisconsin voters
- Biden to have a health related matter
- A Biden-scandal to pop up
Our country is in a rarely-precedented time of vast turmoil. Stakes can turn now like never before. Sanders may be behind, but he's not out of reach of winning the nomination. He should stay in and fight like hell.
Now if the Bulwark called for BOTH campaigns to cease their operations for public safety and delay the primaries 2 months, that would make sense. But they are simply advocating for a candidate.
I’d be ashamed to concede to a dementia victim like Joe Biden.
@Curious George said...
You know what will kill more people than Bernie's campaigning? Bernie's presidency.
Anonymous comment in Deadline article considers our present conundrum:
This former MAGA will be voting Democrat in November. Watching Trump get impeached was bad enough, but watching him fail miserably to lead our nation during a pandemic is too much to bear. Now our jobs, economy and retirement accounts are getting flushed while Nero lies, golfs and fiddles. Wish I’d never voted for him in the first place. Forgive me, America.
Stephen observes: No calls for Tulsi to drop out? (She’s my favorite of the 3, btw). Typical male, not even seeing the female In a nonsexual role.
She's my fav of the Dems, too [although I am a Trump voter and a hetero female] but she'll be a better option for the future, if not for the Dems then as an Independent.
If Bernie were in the lead, would the media be pushing Joe to drop out?
Of course not. I would be "keep counting the votes" all over again.
No more campaigning, absentee ballots only for now. Why stop the campaign (unless he's bored with losing)?
As with everything else in the country today, we need to adapt where possible.
Thanks, hombre, 'shoo-in' not 'shoe-in'. But I think the article is wrong. We shall see.
Gotta be a tough decision for Bernie. If he drops out, he gets thrown on the scrap pile of history, and we won't hear from him again.
Can he absorb the irrelevancy?
CNN was on at my house yesterday with a panel of Democratic hacks telling a Bernie supporter that Sanders needs to quit the race -- basically, to take one for the team.
They seemed to forget that Bernie never was on their team, and that he is not particularly fond of that team, especially after it steamrollered him in 2016, an event that no doubt remains fresh in the minds of Sanders supporters.
Pretending that Sanders rallies (of young people who are very well aware that the downside of Covid exposure for them is a short case of getting the flu) are a national health threat is another attempt to achieve the same goal. Tough.
My preference is for elections with strong, serious, credible alternatives. Doubling down on Joe Biden is not going to give Americans that kind of option in November. We have many serious, thoughtful people in this country but not so many in the upper ranks of our political parties.
We deserve better.
that the party nominates a sane, sensible and non-communist nominee.
The word for the above is “unicorn”.
Sanders is a menace to much more than our public health, but that's irrelevant now, he's out.
And, ignore the Bulwark, those folks are idiots.
Please read this article from famous epidemiologist at Standard, Dr. John Ionnides. A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
The 3.4% CFR is total bullshit. It's closer to .1% like the ordinary flu.
The 3.4% CFR is total bullshit. It's closer to .1% like the ordinary flu.
You have reliable data for that?
Anonymous comment in Deadline article considers our present conundrum
This person is also a unicorn. You can count on one hand the people in this country who voted for Trump last time, who’ll vote for Biden this time. The person who wrote that screed wasn’t MAGA before. Not buying it.
Sanders is already something out of the past. Reading any of his "ideas" or general talky talk is like a diorama into a weird fantasy period of our history.
"But in continuing his campaign today, the Sanders 2020 campaign has become something entirely new in modern politics: A threat to public—and civic—health."
"And if he does not suspend his campaign, immediately, then he and his...
OK, I think Sanders is a LOON and a commie and should NOT even be running but he is. The above comment is just about the dumbest thing I have heard. He is running, he did get some votes, he should run until it is over. A public health threat? Get bent...
These same NeverTrump assholes would demand voters run through a mile of Ebola ridden countryside if the alternative was to let Trump stay in office a day longer.
Bernie conceded on Sunday.
The "Democratic" Party. Yeah right. Another Coronation like 2016 will not serve the Democrat party very well.
Jack Posobiec
Verified account @JackPosobiec
Bernie Sanders is dropping out
9:04 AM - 18 Mar 2020
@rcocean said...
The Bulwark is remarkable for its intellectual dishonesty and lack of fact based reporting. But then its run by Bill Kristol.
So now Trumpites attack conservative opinion sites? The Bulwark's founder and active Editor is Wisconsinite Charlie Sykes.
"The true bulwark of our freedom and national independence is to be found in the souls of our people. Our greatest defense lies in their love of liberty and strength of character.” -Ronald Reagan
The Bulwark's "About Us" page asserts that the blog site is "dedicated to preserving America’s democratic norms, values, and institutions, and educating the public on conservative principles like rule of law, free trade, and expanding legal immigration."
The blog is pro-conservative with (thankfully) no love wasted upon The Donald.
The word is Sanders is pulling out. It's said he's stopped advertising.
But people who write this way are annoying:
But in continuing his campaign today, the Sanders 2020 campaign has become something entirely new in modern politics: A threat to public—and civic—health. And if he does not suspend his campaign, immediately, then he and his supporters should be shamed and shunned.
It's like everyone should be mobilized and assembled and ready to do the bidding of Biden, The Bullfrog and Jonathan V. Last at a moment's notice. If Bernie were to continue he'd try to do it without mass public gatherings. It could be innovative. But Last's imperious tone is the sort of thing that encourages people to exactly the opposite of what he commands.
Professor Annie just rallying the troops to vote for Old Senile Joe in order to defeat that evil Oraange Man.
Nobody has the appetite for politics right now. Except for progressives that are working tirelessly behind the scenes to further their agenda in this time of crisis.
Nancy Pelosi is their field general.
The 3.4% CFR is total bullshit. It's closer to .1% like the ordinary flu.
Uh, no. Worldwide the confirmed fatality rate is currently 3.9%. In the US it is currently 1.5%. In Italy it is 7.9%. I think some of you are misplacing your decimal points. ;-)
This post from our friends at The Bulwark got me to wondering if there are more Republican Never-Trumpers or more Democratic Never-Sandersers.
Nobody has the appetite for politics right now.
Well, we can always rely on the unquenchable lust of Don Lemon.
Let’s be clear. Bill Kristol and his crew of subsidized propagandists donot want the embarrassment of endorsing a socialist. But they would endorse anyone, from Van Jones to Bernie Sanders to David Duke over Trump. And if John Wayne Gacy we’re alive they'd prefer him too.
Mockturtle is correct - the global confirmed fatality rate is hovering near to 4%.
This is being driven by Iran and Italy heavily right now but nonetheless speaks to the deadliness of the disease in certain populations and when the healthcare system isn't there to provide adequate care.
P.s. I think COVID-19 is a death knell to the EU.
Worldwide the confirmed fatality rate is currently 3.9%
Confirmed? How do you that math without a denominator?
Statism has always been a threat to public health. Google "Democide" and look at the body count.
Hillary insists that Facebook is controlled by Russian assets - so, you know. It's time.
gadfly: So now Trumpites attack conservative opinion sites? The Bulwark's founder and active Editor is Wisconsinite Charlie Sykes.
Go back to sleep, Mr. Van Winkle.
Given the demographic profile of COVID fatalities there is a non-trivial chance that neither Sanders nor Biden will be alive in November. The same is true for most of the Congressional leadership. Pelosi, Schumer, McConnell etc. are no spring chickens. Neither is Trump. Trump's been tested, but this thing is going to keep going around.
The election could be Trump versus someone not currently running (and no, probably not Hillary -- she's just as likely as the others to be taken out by COVID.
It could even be not-Trump (Pence?) versus not-Biden. I know these guys get great healthcare, but the death profile from Italy is very sobering. Worth a thought.
Confirmed? How do you that math without a denominator?
It's the new math. If you can't solve for the variable pretend you don't need to.
It's not helpful.
Nonopod,
I'm on the far side of 70 and I don't take this kung flu as seriously as you and others think I should.
It's a real virus. A bit more deadly than regular flu.
It is being used as an excuse to crash the economy in hope that this will defeat that bad orange man.
To everyone who thinks I should set my hair on fire and run around in circles shrieking:
Go fuck yourselves
John Henry
Bill Kristol is now a Democrat, the Bulwark is supporting Biden.
They're as "Conservative" as Joe Biden.
Fake Cons. Liars. And phonies.
TreeJoe said...I think COVID-19 is a death knell to the EU.
I don't. CV shows the EU is effectively impotent but that isn't news. The EU can still carry on its core mission of imposing far left government on unwilling populations. It's not like complete ineffectiveness isn't already understood as a core component of such governments anyway.
gilbar said...
since the democrats are going to cancel the nomination race;
they completely understand, when President Trump cancels the November election, right?
I mean, we can ALL AGREE that it would be a:
A threat to public—and civic—health.
And if Jo Biden does not suspend his campaign, immediately, then he and his supporters should be shamed and shunned....
i mean, RIGHT? Shouldn't we ALL be rallying behind our President in times like these?
i mean, RIGHT?
Pure GENIUS!!! Then PDT can make all the Chinese Biowarfare Experiment Number One (aka COVID-19, aka Kung Flu) decisions without any concern about partisan politics.
Blogger Wilbur said...
This post from our friends at The Bulwark got me to wondering if there are more Republican Never-Trumpers or more Democratic Never-Sandersers.
Let me know when you hear a democrat say they need to elect Trump to strengthen the democrat party.
Are you sure Bernie didn't win and is now in office directing the economy? I was in the local grocery store and the bread, canned soup, and paper products aisles looked like those from the Soviet era,
https://www.strangehistory.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/soviet-supermarket5-1024x724.jpg
Confirmed? How do you that math without a denominator?
I'm relying on these data:
WorldOMeter and verifying with data from individual nations. So the denominator is the number of confirmed cases which, as you know, would certainly not include the thousands of cases yet to be diagnosed. Of course the numerator, deaths, are also uncertain because not all deaths are tested [there are un-recovered bodies in Italy still awaiting diagnosis and testing--if they get tested at all, considering their dire situation right now]. So, no, it's not perfect but these are the best numbers available.
Angle-Dyne, Samurai Buzzard said...
Oh well, I'm sure it's just a matter of seeing Bernie off, then we can get back to the regularly scheduled demographic triumphalism.
3/18/20, 10:53 AM
While a number of zoomers are less intelligent than their shoes, quite a few are not. I daresay the number of abstentions (or even worse for the Dems, crossovers) is going to increase from 2016. It may not have for Sanders, but Biden? It's Broken Down Dem 2: Electric Bugaloo.
Gadfly blathered...
Anonymous comment in Deadline article considers our present conundrum:
This former MAGA will be voting Democrat in November. Watching Trump get impeached was bad enough, but watching him fail miserably to lead our nation during a pandemic is too much to bear. Now our jobs, economy and retirement accounts are getting flushed while Nero lies, golfs and fiddles. Wish I’d never voted for him in the first place. Forgive me, America.
So why didn't you sign it?
“ The 3.4% CFR is total bullshit. It's closer to .1% like the ordinary flu.
Uh, no. Worldwide the confirmed fatality rate is currently 3.9%. In the US it is currently 1.5%. In Italy it is 7.9%. I think some of you are misplacing your decimal points. ;-)”
What he’s saying is what the rate eventually will likely be determined to be. We don’t know about the asymptomatic people who have already survived it. Could be millions. To proclaim the math at this point is to misuse numbers. We don’t know the numerator or the denominator with much precision.
Bob Boyd: But I understand what you are saying, BTW. The term 'rate' is misleading when what we are really talking about is percentage of cases ending in death, in toto.
Primaries are for more than presidential candidates.
Bernie could drop out but the primaries will continue because people are running for other offices.
I agree with DeWine closing the polls and postponing the primary elections. If people need to social distance and shut down the economy then the polls should be closed too.
For example, there's some spring breakers who are recklessly filling up beaches in Florida. I'm usually strongly opposed to Social Media mobbing, but in this case they should all be named and shame
As long as the parents don't let them come back, it's OK with me.
The Bulwark is a leftist con job.
There is some data on mortality vs population.
We are a low concentration population, in spite of the left's attempts to force everyone into cities and rapid transit.
Flu season, which fills hospitals every winter, is almost over.
The Bulwark: a stress test, straining our sense of public spiritedness by gleefully gliding down the scary slippery slope of political hackery, finding new ways to exploit crisis for political benefit.
Glenn put it well. “If we don’t get what we want *people will die*! Why do you want *people to die??
Scaring the shit out of young people so old people can live another year or two is shortsighted.
Old people need to stay indoors.
Everyone else should go about their lives. This is getting ridiculous and going to crash the economy. Enough
mockturtle said...
The 3.4% CFR is total bullshit. It's closer to .1% like the ordinary flu.
Uh, no. Worldwide the confirmed fatality rate is currently 3.9%. In the US it is currently 1.5%. In Italy it is 7.9%. I think some of you are misplacing your decimal points. ;-)
I used worldometer too.
The denominators are obviously garbage.
People keep claiming that COVID-19 is has a higher r0 than flu, but somehow the numbers of infected are orders of magnitude lower than flu?
This started in November and December in China. China hid it from the world throwing doctors who reported it in jail and let the Chinese New Year happen. Then they let everyone travel out.
There are cases in numerous states right now with no known origin. This started many months ago. It is clearly everywhere and we are most likely aware of 10% of the cases at most.
Democracy is a threat to public health and the planet itself. We should suspend it permanently.
Democracy is obsolete. We have experts now, people with credentials so prestigious, if they unrolled them in front of you, you'd probably lose control of important sphincters and you wouldn't even care. That's how warm and safe and relaxed you'd feel, like a baby in a bath.
Why not use these experts? It's time, people. If Trump's election proves anything, it's that democracy is no longer serving us and we need a new system. I say federal employees should choose our leaders. They know best what they need to do their jobs and what their jobs should be. It's common sense.
Boomers could die so we need to shut down society. Their pussy Millenial children who’ve the Boomers have helicoptered their entire lives happily comply because they are co-dependent.
Enough
Nonapod said...
For example, there's some spring breakers who are recklessly filling up beaches in Florida. I'm usually strongly opposed to Social Media mobbing, but in this case they should all be named and shamed.
Beaches in Florida make sense right now. People are naturally spaced out. There are no surfaces that people touch regularly. Temperatures and humidity are high enough the virus doesn't persist long in the environment.
The time for naming and shaming does come though.
For the people who don't think and just look for opportunities to "name and shame" people who are not sufficiently panicking irrationally.
I hope you deniers are right, but I am behaving like you are wrong.
Please read this article from famous epidemiologist at Standard, Dr. John Ionnides.
He's the "Why Most Published [medical] Research Findings Are False" guy.
"...has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco."
The 3.4% CFR is total bullshit. It's closer to .1% like the ordinary flu.
"Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless."
e.g. "Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%."
Still a pretty big range.
You know what will kill more people than Bernie's campaigning? Bernie's presidency.
You beleive that having safety issues be mere suggestions rather than enforceable rules doesn't affect worker safety whatsoever, yet you also beleive that Sanders being elected will directly result in people dying?
Heh. That's cute.
Who is denying anything?
Some people will get it and die from it. Like a very bad flu.
That is not a reason to shut down society for a month or more. This is Boomer Panic. A pampered generation who is so narcissistic they raised a generation of co-dependent cry babies and now won’t die like every generation before them. They are happy to ruin the next 50 years of everyone else’s life so that they can live another year.
Fuck them. Fuck their snowflake kids.
Let’s get on with life, which includes dying.
Howard said...
I hope you deniers are right, but I am behaving like you are wrong.
You mean you're dying?
No one knows the death rate. We have faulty data. But we have to take the higher rates, over 3%, seriously until we have good evidence not to.
The experts with lots of experience in this kind of thing tell us it will probably be about 1%. We need to take that seriously too.
We might know more in a couple weeks, if we can get a lot of testing going. But maybe not.
Old people need to stay indoors.
Old people need fresh air. They need to be outdoors as much as possible, weather permitting.
If you meant to say away from the public, that would be helpful.
1% is high but not enough to shut down society.
The Spanish Flu was very bad. No reason to shut society down then either.
There are worse things than death.
So now Trumpites attack conservative opinion sites? The Bulwark's founder and active Editor is Wisconsinite Charlie Sykes.
Bulwark is not conservative. It's anti-Trump.
"The true bulwark of our freedom and national independence is to be found in the souls of our people. Our greatest defense lies in their love of liberty and strength of character.” -Ronald Reagan
If you can point out how Trump has lowered liberty, I'm all ears.
The Bulwark's "About Us" page asserts that the blog site is "dedicated to preserving America’s democratic norms, values, and institutions, and educating the public on conservative principles like rule of law, free trade, and expanding legal immigration."
One democratic norm is the presidential elections, which in 2016, elected Donald Trump. The Bulwark has used its platform to kneecap the sitting president since the news rag was founded. Not my idea of a "democratic norm". And as for rule of law - immigration policies are law, and the Bulwark has gone out of its way to criticize Trump's enforcing existing laws when it comes to immigration.
The blog is pro-conservative with (thankfully) no love wasted upon The Donald.
If you changed the author names for their articles to any of the standard lefty writers at the New York Times or Washington Post, you couldn't tell the difference. Pro-conservative my ass.
Trump is the most conservative president to come along since at least Reagan; maybe Coolidge. Gadfly's TDS is so strong he doesn't even know the meaning of the word conservative anymore.
Take the Dem out of pan[dem]ic !
For people looking for a more plausible fatelity rate, South Korea has done more testing than any other country by far.
South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million. The results? 8,413 confirmed cases and 84 deaths. That translates to at worst a 1% fatality rate assuming they tested pretty much everybody who had it (which even then is unlikely in the extreme.
I heard on the radio the Miami-Dade sheriff is going to start arresting beach goers starting tomorrow because they are not staying 6 ft. apart in groups of ten. Let me know if you can figure out how to establish different groupings of 10.
Meanwhile, lib run cities are emptying their jails while the ACLU demands all prisoners over the age of 60 be released from custody because "they are at risk".
How far to the extreme right does one hafta sit in order to view Charles Sykes as a lefty-left-libtard-liberal?
*rolls eyes*
They should keep reporters out of these press conferences! They could listen to a podcast. All they do is ask stupid questions and they are congregating in a large group!
If you are outdoors then you can’t stay away from the public unless you live on Walden Pond.
How about this: old people stay away from other people. You could get sick and die. If you go outside for fresh air do not expect the rest of society to bend to your will. If you want to keep your distance then good idea. If you expect everyone else to do as you want then fuck off and die. You have a few years left. Everyone else has to live awhile with the consequences of crashing the economy so that u can live a little while longer.
I think they are saying Charlie Sykes is an opportunist. He’s in it for the money. He will say whatever he gets paid the most to say.
That could be true if anyone regardless of their stated political leanings
Blogger mccullough said...
If you are outdoors then you can’t stay away from the public unless you live on Walden Pond.
This is not helpful. Almost all people are aware that porches, decks, balconies, courtyards, front yard, back yards, door yards (it's a Maine thing, don't ask) exist.
Not you, I guess.
I hope this is helpful.
DarkHelmet said...
Given the demographic profile of COVID fatalities there is a non-trivial chance that neither Sanders nor Biden will be alive in November. The same is true for most of the Congressional leadership. Pelosi, Schumer, McConnell etc
up until yesterday, i was trying HARD to figure out WHY This pandemic was being treated by our leaders SO MUCH DIFFERENTLY than all the others...
And then it Hit me:
Covfefe-19 targets people over 70, almost exclusively (NOT exclusively, just ALMOST)
WHO are our leaders? What age group do they ALL fit in?
They're not worried about the country; they're worried about their own asses
IF a disease killed, say, 700,000 predominantly young white men; would we shut down the nation?
If a medical treatment killed, say, 60 MILLION babies (1.5 million just last year); what would we do?
Being given regular warm baths by the government expert of your choice is an important human right. Not a lot of people know that, but I'm working to raise awareness.
Nonapod observes:
South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million. The results? 8,413 confirmed cases and 84 deaths. That translates to at worst a 1% fatality rate assuming they tested pretty much everybody who had it (which even then is unlikely in the extreme.
Yes. If you look at the graphs, you can see that S.Korea's fatality rate peaked between March 2 and March 4 and has since decreased substantially. Looking at the slope of the curves in each country tells a lot about the trends.
Charles sykes supported Hillary in 2016, wanted the D's to take the house in 2018, and is now hoping Biden wins in 2020.
He's not a fucking Right-winger. He's not even a Conservative.
Bill Miller, great mutual fund manager, was just on CNBC. He said this is the 5th best buying opportunity of his lifetime. And, of course, Warren Buffett is buying now.
The difference between the Left and the Right is hilarious. With the Left, disagree with ONE position and you're a Right winger. Meanwhile, the Right is so wimpy and stupid, that if you AGREE with them on one issue you're a Right-winger. Hey, so what if you supported/voted for Hillary? You're still on of US, because you say you like "smaller government".
LOL!
We should suspend - indeed, eliminate - all democracy and be run as a dictatorship under marshal law. It's for the good of the people.
Bye, Bye, Bernie! Hello Joe Biden Unleashed!
"There are worse things than death."
Unless you're the one dying. I have it on good authority that there is no recovering from that.
Bernie knows Joe is losing it. If he stays in, he’s the nominee. If he gets out, the DNC won’t pick him.
That reminds me of Charles Johnson, who was a 911 conservative, after 2004 he switched back to be being a liberal, but Conservatives kept calling him "Conservative". He finally had to start calling them Nazis and Fascists on BHTV and his blog, before they would FINALLY get the message. They were like some pathetic HS nerd who desperately wanted to think the one of the "cool Kids" liked him and finally had to told off, before they stopped.
A Modest Proposal for the 21st Century:
Infect Biden, Bernie, and Trump with the Coronavirus. Do it now, deliberately.
Whoever survives and is healthiest in November becomes the President. We can vote as a formality. My guess is that it will still be Trump.
I'm not buying until we have some more panic.
Andrew,
Great idea.
Infect all of Congress and the Supreme Court as well.
Put our leaders through the Hunger Games for once
They're not worried about the country; they're worried about their own asses
Sounds about right. In addition to politicians, you might include the people who ultimately control what gets in the news over and over and over and over.
Tom Hanks Disease Is (So Far) the Anti-AIDS, the Epidemic of the Wholesome
"Instead of junkies and anonymous gay sex addicts like AIDS targeted, it’s hitting people like movie stars Tom Hanks and his wife Rita Wilson, Idris Elba, and the first ladies of Canada and Spain."
IF a disease killed, say, 700,000 predominantly young white men; would we shut down the nation?
I think there's a genetic component to resistance, as there was with the previous SARS, since there are almost no cases or deaths in Africa or India, especially considering their population deities, and for all we know most of the dead people in the US and Europe are elderly Asians (300,000 Chinese live in Italy...?) - but most MSM scribblers wouldn't be caught, er, dead mentioning something like that: all the reported "Demographics" of the disease that I've seen omit race (which doesn't exist, BTW...)
"population densities" ha
That is not a reason to shut down society for a month or more. This is Boomer Panic. A pampered generation who is so narcissistic they raised a generation of co-dependent cry babies and now won’t die like every generation before them. They are happy to ruin the next 50 years of everyone else’s life so that they can live another year.
If anyone thinks this is strident just wait for a couple of months. It's going to get a lot louder.
Sanders campaign is a menace to public health? That's taking the silliness too far. But, if you're going to do that, just acknowledge that the best thing for the economy and the COVID fight will be stability/continuity in the government, especially stability/continuity that can be planned for. And declare Trump the winner.
a more interesting speculation
Put our leaders through the Hunger Games for once
There were, a LOT of things to criticize Panem for; BUT! the fact remains,
The Hunger Games were GREAT TV
Currently, OUR nation is trapped in their homes, AND BORED
You KNOW what would TOTALLY CHEER US UP
Bring on our Hunger Games! for the good of Panem!!
Our 'LEADERS' are all the time talking about how they are Our Servants, and that they WANT to do what's Best for the country. INFECT THEM ALL; all of Congress, all of the courts, and YES all of the Executive Branch
LET'S SEE how much these tribute can contribute!
Interesting, the Capitol of Panem, was located somewhere in the Rockies, probably around Denver, although is their any area there with water falls for a hydro electric plant,
This is Boomer Panic. A pampered generation who is so narcissistic they raised a generation of co-dependent cry babies and now won’t die like every generation before them. They are happy to ruin the next 50 years of everyone else’s life so that they can live another year.
Who's got the money? The BOOMERS
Who's got the good houses? The BOOMERS
Who's asking america to CRIPPLE itself, so that they can go on collecting Social Security Checks that the rest of us will NEVER see? The BOOMERS
The best data seems to be from South Korea (see above) and the report posted on Watts Up With This about the Diamond Princess, where only about 20 percent of the crew and guests caught it, half didn't even know they were infected, and the seven who died were 70+.
The more we know, the less serious Corvid becomes.
Only now the governor of Pennsylvania trashed the state's economy by closing everything for two weeks. I talked to the owner of my local bookstore, and she says she can survive that, but not longer.
The governor's a democrat, btw.
"Instead of junkies and anonymous gay sex addicts like AIDS targeted, it’s hitting people like movie stars Tom Hanks and his wife Rita Wilson, Idris Elba, and the first ladies of Canada and Spain."
How do we know that they aren't junkies or sex addicts?
And AIDS didn't hit movie stars and other celebrities?
narciso said...
Interesting, the Capitol of Panem, was located somewhere in the Rockies, probably around Denver, although is their any area there with water falls for a hydro electric plant
I always figured it was Jackson Hole, with the Yellowstone falls and thermo for power
I see nobody is talking about the 770 Super delegates.
Super delegates don't get a vote at the convention until the second ballot.
that's a possible one, there was a Michael palmer novel, where some group, had infected the congress, of course there's always a McGuffin, so one cantwell staffer (she's from Washington) and the House peach mint counsel, came down with it,
The Bullfrog is mostly just an anti-Trump site, with a little bashing of AOC and Bernie to keep up the pretences. It's like a war for Kristol. Trump is the enemy and conservatism is something to worry about later. Priorities like that aren't uncommon in the media-political-complex whoever they're talking about and whatever they support: victory first, ideology second.
Maybe Bernie is a Soviet agent.
it wasn't one of his better ones, now the authoress of the hunger games is coming out with a prequel in may, about young corolianus snow, and his rise to power, fwiw,
mockturtle said...
The 3.4% CFR is total bullshit. It's closer to .1% like the ordinary flu.
Uh, no. Worldwide the confirmed fatality rate is currently 3.9%. In the US it is currently 1.5%. In Italy it is 7.9%. I think some of you are misplacing your decimal points. ;-)
***************************
Skeptics can go here for the facts:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
The US has 115 deaths for 7328 confirmed cases. That's a mortality rate of 115/7328 or
1.57%. This is the lowest rate for the week so far, which stood Monday at 1.91% and has fallen each day. (And remember, the number of confirmed active and recovered cases will rise when testing gets seriously underway. If so, the mortality rate will fall relative to larger number of cases that current data does not include)
What *I* want to know is, where did the purported 0.1% mortality for influenza come from?
Here's what Time magazine reported for 2018-2019:
https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/
"In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died."
That's a 61200/42,900,00 = 1.42%.
Under the Gag Rule I can't comment as to what these numbers might mean in terms of the current hysteria, so make of them what you will.
What Last is calling for is not an end to Sanders' campaign because it is a public health risk, but for an end to voting and the party primaries.
If the Presidential party preference was the only position up for a vote there might be a tiny bit of sense in his article.
But every Congressman and thousands of other candidates will also be selected during the primaries. Should all those be cancelled? Last ignores these elections either intentionally or because of his Trump derangement (or because he's paid to).
I think the Covid 19 hysteria is disgusting and dangerous. Bernie Sanders IS NOT a mass murderer. He's an egotistical jerk. Big difference!
Consider the following article by Ari Libsker. “Corona Is Slowing Down, Humanity Will Survive, Says Biophysicist Michael Levitt,” CTech, March 13, 2020.
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632,00.html
Dr. Levitt is saying that the deaths will be way way lower than many are predicting. One example he discusses is the case of the Diamond cruise ship. Cruise ships are kind of gross and they're the worst possible environment for the transmission of ANY disease. But only 20% of the Diamond passengers got infected with Covid 19. In Wuhan and the surrounding area, only 3% of the population got infected. Humanity has some kind of natural immunity to this disease. Things are going to get better...
Rabel 1:32 for the thread win.
Framing it as he has puts a supposed collectivist up against the collective, the "greater good".
In America, we just love shaming and blaming each other. It's our new pastime in the modern era of social media. We will shame each other into isolation and obedience and defeat this Chinese Virus together!!
This is nothing new from those 'Liberal' idiots at the Bulwark! Just take a gander at this tweet from Molly Jong-Fast where she stated: "...So the states are basically governing themselves because our president doesn't know how to president at all?"
This kind of ignorance is nothing short of astounding. Does this 'Einstein' really know why the United States is really called 'The United States of America'? Even though the Constitution instituted the principle of Federalism - the founders of the USA bend over backwards to preserve the States' powers. Ms. Jong-Fast, they passed the 10th Amendment which specifically refutes your idiotic comment, to wit: "The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people."
That's why locals should be taking care of this fake crisis and themselves. After reading the B.S. just announced by the leaders of Philadelphia - no more arrests for certain crimes because of coronavirus. I get the concept of why people always fight the 'take your guns crowd'. Now we need to protect ourselves. This panic is a fake - the CDC numbers just recently released prove it. Regular seasonal flu produced more deaths in the USA then all the deaths for Covid - 19 worldwide.
"Why oh Why are you doing this to be God? Oh...wait...I don't believe in God." - Bernie Sanders, St. Patrick's Day 2020
oh really now, we know he worked with Russian Yandex
If anyone thinks this is strident just wait for a couple of months. It's going to get a lot louder.
10 days ought to do it...
We are now hearing more reasonable adults coming out that this Corona Virus is just another version of the common cold. John Ioannidis is a respected epidemiologist at Stanford. He states, "...Coronavirus May Be Less Deadly Than We Think — And Too Mild To Justify These Aggressive Countermeasures..." His point is we just don’t have enough of it yet to feel confident about how dangerous the disease is. And that matters a lot when you’re implementing policies with massive social repercussions like shutting down the global economy and passing trillion-dollar stimuluses. But that won't stop Politicos and the MSM who are giddy at the opportunity of more power and ratings. Remember what Rahm Emanuel said, "...You never let a serious crisis go to waste..." People 'we are being played like a fine Stradivarius'.
The best data seems to be from South Korea (see above) and the report posted on Watts Up With This about the Diamond Princess, where only about 20 percent of the crew and guests caught it, half didn't even know they were infected, and the seven who died were 70+
Eh, are we supposed feel better because one guy managed to infect "only 20%" of huge cruise ship? That's 634 people. Because one guy with the virus was on board.
I really don't know how to feel about that. I know of nothing to compare it to. A lot of people seem to find it reassuring but it's sort of ambiguous at best to me.
The Covid-19 threat to our precious boomer population shows it's past time to establish the National Boomer Reserve.
Remember this news release from WHO on January 14?
“Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,” the WHO tweeted."
That's 634 people. Because one guy with the virus was on board.
How does an authority come to this conclusion?
Automatic_Wing said...
I really don't know how to feel about that. I know of nothing to compare it to. A lot of people seem to find it reassuring but it's sort of ambiguous at best to me.
The Diamond Princess took ~3700 people and stuck them in a closed environment for several weeks with widespread exposure. The population skewed much older.
You know something to compare it too. Other viruses. It is different in that there is not widespread immunity yet. But it spreads and kills in very similar patterns.
This particular virus seems to be very hard on people with compromised lungs and immune systems.
It also seems to spread very quickly and be much more mild in younger populations and healthier populations with high rates of asymptomatic response which is probably one of the reasons it spreads so quickly.
I believe Boomers will be relatively fine. It's the Silents and the Greatests I'm worried about.
Euthanasia, abortion... among many other things, this pandemic is an extreme and real test for those of us who identify as "pro-life."
South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million. The results? 8,413 confirmed cases and 84 deaths. That translates to at worst a 1% fatality rate assuming they tested pretty much everybody who had it (which even then is unlikely in the extreme.
But even that overstates the fatality rate for two reasons:
1. The tests being used can only detect if you currently have the virus. If you had it and recovered before the test was administered, the test will not detect that. Only an antibody test can determine if people have ever been infected, and we don't have those tests yet.
2. Those 270 thousand tests were not a random sample. In a random sample, the probability of an individual being tested is the same whether he has been exposed or not. But those 270 thousand tests included everyone who showed symptoms, so unless you think people without symptoms are just as likely to have the infection as those who are ill with it, you can't argue that the sample was randomly selected.
To actually know what the fatality rate is, we need an antibody test run on a randomly selected sample of people. To track progress, it needs to be repeated with fresh random samples frequently. Doing so will tell us not only the fatality rate (divide fatalities by the estimated population that has ever been infected) but also how much it has spread (the percent of people that have ever been infected). Both of these are important numbers to know to inform policy.
If it turns out that a substantial percentage of people have been infected at some point, then social distancing and quarantines are pointless and can be dropped. If the fatality rate turns out to be not much worse than the flu, that would also justify a return to normality. Right now we're making very costly policy decisions based on uninformative data.
Blogger Browndog said...
Old people need to stay indoors.
Old people need fresh air. They need to be outdoors as much as possible, weather permitting.
If you meant to say away from the public, that would be helpful.
3/18/20, 12:22 PM
Just more silliness from panic induced fake crisis. I'm one of those "old people" played golf yesterday enjoyed it. BTW, could also die from the seasonal flu (more likely) vs. this Covid - 19 nonsense, according to the latest data from the CDC.
Everyone - calm down - you're your own worst enemy and the Politicos and MSM love this crisis and are not going to help you.
purplepenquin said...
How far to the extreme right does one hafta sit in order to view Charles Sykes as a lefty-left-libtard-liberal?
*rolls eyes*
Left and Right have no meaning anymore politically.
The Republicans are Nationalists and the Democrats are Globalists.
Entrepreneurs and working class vote republican.
Technocrats, the welfare class, bureaucrats, and plutocrats vote for democrats.
Sykes is firmly in the latter camp. Support for free trade and open borders puts squarely as a democrat.
just great
wholelottasplainin@1:30 pm, you dropped a zero in your denominator. It should be 42,900,000, not 42900,00. If you fix that, the rate is 0.142 percent, in line with the quoted 0.1 percent figure.
hstad: Everyone - calm down - you're your own worst enemy and the Politicos and MSM love this crisis and are not going to help you.
Now, there's a novel sentiment being expressed.
That's what this blog communi-tay needs - some iconoclastic, outside-the-box, never-expressed-here-before comments like this.
Left and Right have no meaning anymore politically
Weren't you, just a few weeks ago, constantly call me a "lefty"?
If not, my apologies for misremembering.
If so, can you please explain why you label me (and others) as such but now say the phrase no longer has any meaning?
Bernie Sanders when @mkraju asked his timeframe for a decision: "I'm dealing with a fucking global crisis."
"Right now I'm trying to do my best to make sure that we don't have an economic meltdown and that people don't die. Is that enough for you to keep me busy for today?"
purplepenquin: "How far to the extreme right does one hafta sit in order to view Charles Sykes as a lefty-left-libtard-liberal?
*rolls eyes*"
Achilles: "Left and Right have no meaning anymore politically.
The Republicans are Nationalists and the Democrats are Globalists."
We are literally about 6 years into the global populist wave which is rejecting globalism and is redefining political parties and voter allegiance to political and purplepenguin still doesn't get it.
How many Labour seats in decades old Labour districts did Boris flip in December to give the Conservatives their massive majority? And what was the THE election message? "Get Brexit Done".
How many counties voted for obama twice and then voted for Trump? Do you ever ask yourself why?
How is it that Trump had a higher % of black voters and hispanic voters than Romney?
What has happened in Poland, Denmark, Hungary, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Australia and the list goes on and on in just the last 4 years?
If you can't figure it out at this point PP, you never will.
A communist has been running for the office of President of the United States of America, and only just now he's become a threat to public and civic health???
Between this and the proposal to provide taxpayer-backed loan guarantees to the airline industry, I don't know what will happen if I read one more stupid thing today.
Who's got the money? The BOOMERS
Who's got the good houses? The BOOMERS
That's how it works when you've spent an entire lifetime of hard labor collecting assets. Yawn. I'm asumming you're working towards the same ends.
Who's asking america to CRIPPLE itself, so that they can go on collecting Social Security Checks that the rest of us will NEVER see? The BOOMERS
You've got a very good point there. From the greatest generation to the most pampered generation in just 20 years. Younger people I talk to seemed to accept the fact that they were the ones that were going to get screwed by the ponzi scheme, but what's happening now is one toke over the line to a lot of them. Can't say I blame them.
Charles Sykes is a Democrat Liberal because he support Hillary, wanted the Democrats to win in 2018, and is supporting Joe Biden.
But keep on babbling and acting like its a real puzzle as to whether he's left wing or not.
If it talks like liberal, walks like a liberal, and quacks like a liberal
Then Charles Sykes is a liberal.
Bill Weld has heard your cries and dropped out of the race.
Why am I 100% certain that if the situation were reversed, Last would be urging Biden to fight on?
Why, oh, why?
Achilles, I think there is "widespread immunity." China is reporting many, many cases of only one spouse or family member getting infected. Some people clearly are immune to this disease. Covid 19 does not have a clear run. If humanity was encountering something truly new, then 100% of the population of China would have been infected in a few weeks and the entire world in a few months. The reality is only 3 % of Wuhan was infected and it appears that Covid 19 will disappear from China by the end of March. Even with central air and heat and communal eating and extremely cramped quarters, 20% of Diamond cruise passengers got Covid 19. Exponential growth did not happen because the majority of the population has natural immunity. We're making a mountain out of a mole hill.
Not that is matters anymore, but Sanders has always been a threat to civic health. Glad the body politic still has some immunity left.
Kevin: "Bill Weld has heard your cries and dropped out of the race."
Which will come as quite a shock to the 327 million Americans who didn't know he was in the race to begin with.
Kevin: "Bill Weld has heard your cries and dropped out of the race."
Which will come as quite a shock to the 327 million Americans who didn't know he was in the race to begin with.
60s, 70s and 80s probably needed to isolate. Would it have been possible to assist them in doing this without shutting down the whole f-ing country and ruining our small business economy? How stupid are we?
Mediaswine, politicians and bureaucratquacks run wild.
Weld is from the Romney cuticle of the GOP
he was mueller's boss in boston, then ended up as head of the criminal division at justice, where he could oversee the likes of whitey bulger and co,
"60s, 70s and 80s probably needed to isolate."
You might be making progress. Baby steps. The isolation/distancing needs to be universal or the virus remains in population -- lurking, mutating, perhaps reemerging stronger and deadlier about the time today's 60s, 70s and 80s (90s and 100s) are replaced by those who are the teens, 20s, and 30s of today. Who will be there to care for the future seniors? What is civilization good for if not to protect the least corrupt and most defenseless?
Remember, when you die of COVID-19 you essentially drown in your own lungs. Maybe not as grisly as having your arms and legs sliced off and your brain sucked out by abortion at the beginning of life but still, hardly a "good death."
It's called simply "being human."
“I hope you deniers are right, but I am behaving like you are wrong.”
It is entirely possible for “deniers” in the US to be apparently wrong on the facts of KungFlu (love that) and apparently right about the outcome. If that proves to be the case, any discussion about what it all meant is going to be equal parts hilarious and contentious.
Sanders should continue his campaign for one fucking obvious reason- every "expert" on television says COVID-19 will kill a million old people. Joe Biden might be one of them.
The TrueConservative NeverTrump crowd sure does seem insistent that Bernie drop out as soon as possible--they seem very worried that he'll cause Biden to move too far Left. Weird position for Principled Conservatives, but hard to deny that's what's happening.
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