Althouse: A bleak sunrise.

March 24, 2020

A bleak sunrise.

396 comments:

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n.n said...: Saner folks are making headway.

Prudence and boldness are the American way.; 3/24/20, 4:45 PM
sinz52 said...: I still have some hope that warmer weather might put a crimp in the exponentially rising death rate. Fewer hosts: People are out of doors more, and even indoors they have their windows open for fresh air.

Unfortunately, where I live, there is no warmer weather right now. We had 4 inches of snow this morning and yesterday, the temp didn't reach 40 F. March is a lost cause. The weather won't get milder till mid-April. Till then, we're in for a world of hurt.; 3/24/20, 4:47 PM
JPS said...: tomcc,

"I keep puzzling over the coronavirus death rate in Italy: ~10%....Are we sure we're talking about the same virus?"

I won't claim to know why it's so high. I don't think it is known, yet. Possible partial explanations: There are a lot of old people in Italy. As far as I can tell, the health care system (particularly in the crowded, wealthy north) actually did a hell of a job keeping people with serious but manageable conditions alive for a long time - just as long as everything was running smoothly. And exactly in the places of greatest need, the hospitals got overwhelmed just as the need for them peaked.

The raw fatality rate, subject to all the usual caveats, is 5% in the UK. About 8% in Spain. We can talk about under-testing, and how if the denominator were more accurate the rates would be smaller, but Italy's (as you may know) has been edging up over time. I know Italians, very proud of their system, who will insist they have a more lethal strain if their mortality is running higher than most countries', but I think that's motivated reasoning.

(And, while I was typing and easing, others have made much the same points.); 3/24/20, 4:47 PM
Ken B said...: Tomcc
Suggests that to me too. More old, more smokers. We are probably not going to see numbers like that. But I am not an expert in the field.
The real news is that nowhere is it as mild as the flu. The “good news” is when it is only 10 times deadlier than the flu.; 3/24/20, 4:50 PM
mockturtle said...: I like Trump's idea of letting individual 'hot spots' do the locking down, when necessary, and the rest of the country going back to work using precautions.; 3/24/20, 4:52 PM
n.n said...: Unless, of course, we're talking about Planned Parenthood terminating a fetus,

Yeah, a minor religious/ethical/behavioral change would reduce the mortality rate in America alone by 600,000 or more annually of "our Posterity"... child... Fetal-American. According to the Progressive Church (PC a.k.a. Pro-Choice), we are not human until we are judged and labeled, and even then there is still liberal license at the Twilight fringe. Social, medical, and revenue (e.g. Planned Parenthood et al) progress are priorities.; 3/24/20, 4:54 PM
walter said...: More regarding Zelenko using HCQ/Z
...
"Zelenko said the idea behind his approach is to treat the spread of the virus in the body before it damages the lungs beyond repair. Once the lungs of a Covid-19 patient exhibit what’s called acute respiratory distress syndrome, according to WHO, the patient’s likelihood of death is about 50%, according to early estimates.

Zelenko said that he felt that hydroxychloroquine was not being taken seriously as a treatment due a combination of factors, including conservativeness on the part of the government’s medical establishment in requiring a controlled clinical trial, as well as the fact that Trump himself has been pushing for the use of the drug.

“And this is a political year, with a presidential election, and there are forces at play that would prefer to see the economy collapse rather than President Trump to look good, in my opinion,” Zelenko said.
<
In a statement released on social media Tuesday afternoon, the consortium of emergency response teams linked Zelenko’s statements to anti-Semitic incidents related to coronavirus. The statement appeared to refer to an incident that occurred near Kiryas Joel Monday, in which a Hasidic man was refused service on his car at a Toyota dealership.

“The exploitation of a crisis and a community is unacceptable because it fuels Antisemitism and only exacerbates a problem, making it more difficult to manage,” the statement read.
...

BAG,
Media would have us believe the rise is strictly about stimulus...even though futures rose yesterday post Trump messaging.; 3/24/20, 4:54 PM
Sebastian said...: "Italy is essentially grafting this corona "epidemic" onto a previous epidemic."

Just out of curiosity: do we now the number of "regular" flu deaths in Italy over the last several months? Are all "deaths" checked for both Wuhan and flu, and if so, what proportion of cases featuring both are ascribed to Wuhan? What is the excess rate in Italy anyway?; 3/24/20, 4:56 PM
n.n said...: it is only 10 times deadlier than the flu

That statistic depends on the infection rate, which has been estimated, but not assessed. However, based on disease progression, the rate may be, normalized for preexisting conditions and related factors, as great as 1/10 as originally believed.; 3/24/20, 4:59 PM
Browndog said...: Trump says he wants America opened up by Easter Sunday. Says it's a special day for a lot of people.

That in and of itself is going to drive lib media mad.

Fauci is at this briefing. Media are going to pulverize him in an effort to get him to shut down Trump's dreams of Sunday Easter Sunday. (in with the Sunday Bloody Sunday reference before the libs); 3/24/20, 5:01 PM
Tomcc said...: Also of interest, to me, would be to know the length of hospitalization required for Covid-19. Once in a hospital, people either get better and get released or they die. Any medical professionals that can comment on that?; 3/24/20, 5:03 PM
narciso said...: the same media that said meh about hini, that have been blasé about the common flu, and the 34,000 cases this year,; 3/24/20, 5:09 PM
daskol said...: This guy's a medical professional in NYC and a prolific tweeter: good news is they're discharging recovered COVID-19 patients daily. Not so good news is that they're also admitting new ones daily.; 3/24/20, 5:11 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: Re Italy: it's been widely reported that they are overattributing deaths to COVID. Hit by a car with no known symptoms, die in hospital, test positive postmortem -> recorded as a CV death. I don't know if this has been confirmed or debunked but it seems very important to know the truth about.; 3/24/20, 5:11 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Not to be gross, but human beings -- healthy human beings -- have 380 Trillion viruses in their body. .

Lotta critters just live in us, not causing sickness.; 3/24/20, 5:14 PM
Curious George said...: "There are millions of people with lost income some of them will literally be starving after a few weeks."

They aren't going to starve watching opera at home. They are going to find food. Some at any cost. No social distancing. It won't be pretty.; 3/24/20, 5:17 PM
Roughcoat said...: I am also taking delivery, tomorrow, of a new computer shipped from China.; 3/24/20, 5:17 PM
narciso said...: that's what the telegraph noted, they buried under a whole host of terrifying headlines, re farage, the uk doesn't have a reliable test, and yet it's undergoing full lockdown,; 3/24/20, 5:18 PM
Laslo Spatula said...: Article on flu in Italy, published November 2019.

"• In the winter seasons from 2013/14 to 2016/17, an estimated average of 5,290,000 ILI cases occurred in Italy, corresponding to an incidence of 9%.

• More than 68,000 deaths attributable to flu epidemics were estimated in the study period.

• Italy showed a higher influenza attributable excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly.

Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period. The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy..."

Interesting that -- pre-COVID -- there was an alarming number of flu deaths in Italy for many years previous.

Like the population was highly compromised to begin with, and prone to the peaks and not the valleys of the medical charts.

Again -- an article pre-COVID hysteria.

Yes, COVID is serious. But Italy might not be a strong candidate for making predictions.

I am a wrecker and a hoarder, but not a midnight toker.

I am Laslo.; 3/24/20, 5:22 PM
JohnAnnArbor said...: Re Italy: it's been widely reported that they are overattributing deaths to COVID. Hit by a car with no known symptoms, die in hospital, test positive postmortem -> recorded as a CV death.

So, if true, then they're letting a tendency towards the dramatic skew the numbers.; 3/24/20, 5:25 PM
Roughcoat said...: How does one pronounce "hydroxychloroquine"?

Is it hydro xychloroquine (as in, "zycholoro...")

Or hyd (hide) oxycholoroquine (as in oxytocin, etc.)?; 3/24/20, 5:25 PM
Birkel said...: Hydroxy - cloro - quine; 3/24/20, 5:27 PM
narciso said...: so Italy currently has roughly 70,000 and about 800 casualties rounding off, that's according to worldometer,; 3/24/20, 5:29 PM
Browndog said...: I read an article last week from 2015:

It talked about Italy's terrible healthcare system, outdated and non-functioning hospital equipment, etc.

The point of the article was how Italians are in great health despite "one of the worst healthcare systems in Europe", touting their healthy diet and red wine consumption. Then it went on to promote a vegan diet.; 3/24/20, 5:30 PM
AllenS said...: President Trump talks about ending this shut down shit, and WAMMO!

DOW

20,704.91 +2,112.98 (11.37%); 3/24/20, 5:30 PM
Tomcc said...: Daskol- thanks for that link. Things are shaping up badly for NY. Interesting that he's using Hydroxychloroquine in his treatment(s).; 3/24/20, 5:30 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Laslo - you magnificent bastard! Please see my Italian comment @ 4:43.

As for Italy, I would sleep with Sophia Loren, even if she had the Coronavirus.

But, sadly, I am not Laslo.; 3/24/20, 5:34 PM
narciso said...: they are always gaslighting, and pushing a health insurance scheme, that has made things worse in Italy, and probably next in the uk,; 3/24/20, 5:36 PM
walter said...: Laslo,
A break at midnight is the pause that refreshes ;)
My loosie TP biz has expanded expodentially.
My Seattle crew can hook you up.; 3/24/20, 5:40 PM
narciso said...: a deeper dive, into the numbers; 3/24/20, 5:42 PM
Josephbleau said...: I understand chrono causes permanent damage to your lungs. My mother had an embolism and had lung tissue necrosis. Not being able to get air is the worst thing I can imagine. That's how the Chicoms could get me to talk fast. She gave up at 92 years old even with an O2 concentrator, but she would have lived to 100 without the damage. I'm staying inside for a long time, my lungs are not subject to trade offs.; 3/24/20, 5:42 PM
Ken B said...: Laslo
I have *seen* you midnight toke.; 3/24/20, 5:43 PM
Ken B said...: “ I'm staying inside for a long time, my lungs are not subject to trade offs.”

Yes. I am resigned to doing not much except walks. Grocery stores and drug stores, but as rarely as possible. Load up big and come back is the plan. We have enough for a while. Anyone who can stay out of the public square should, as much as possible.; 3/24/20, 5:46 PM
Browndog said...: Biden practicing cyber-distancing as an extra precaution:

YAHOO NEWS: Joe Biden cancels online press briefing scheduled for Tuesday; 3/24/20, 5:48 PM
walter said...: Laura Gao
Victory hand
@heylauragao
·
Mar 13
This is the medical team from Wuhan responsible for recovering 50K+ patients in just a few months. They're now risking their lives again to help out Italy. Rag on China all you want for the mishandlings early on but you can't deny that these people are true selfless heroes.
--
Hmmmmm; 3/24/20, 5:49 PM
Browndog said...: A Russian television anchor got an exclusive interview with none other than the coronavirus itself

You gotta see this!; 3/24/20, 5:56 PM
Mark said...: All you people who put others at risk by leaving NYC for other areas need to go into quarantine for two weeks.; 3/24/20, 5:57 PM
walter said...: Gonna be some folks quashing their accent.; 3/24/20, 6:02 PM
stevew said...: Personally, did a zoom meeting with my kids and their kids, was oddly satisfying in a social distant way. Grandson (1.25 years) was blowing kisses. Granddaughters, three of them age 3.5 to nearly 8, participated for about 5 mins and then went back to playing and such. Also allowing myself another glass of wine tonight, what the heck, I can sleep in tomorrow. This is day 12 of working from home, no travel, social distancing. Not great, not bad.

Trump has established April 12 as a goal for reopening some of our nation, I'm good with that, though he added the caveat that the science and experience over the next 19 days will decide. NY though... fucked, for quite awhile. Cuomo is looking and acting strong. DeBlasio has made clear he is a clown.

Be well fellows and gals.; 3/24/20, 6:03 PM
Browndog said...: Florida orders mandatory 14 quarantine for any new arrivals from New York & New Jersey.; 3/24/20, 6:03 PM
Browndog said...: *14 day; 3/24/20, 6:04 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: "Florida orders mandatory 14 quarantine for any new arrivals from New York & New Jersey."

Mandatory showers and baths might help too!; 3/24/20, 6:05 PM
JPS said...: I Have Misplaced My Pants:

"Re Italy: it's been widely reported that they are overattributing deaths to COVID. Hit by a car with no known symptoms, die in hospital, test positive postmortem -> recorded as a CV death."

I suspect that's a metaphor for incautious attribution. The Italians have no reason to want to make this outbreak look worse than it is, and, pace JohnAnnArbor, I haven't encountered an overdramatic doctor here yet. (Keep in mind, northern Italians don't fit most people's stereotypes of Italians anyway. They can come off as chilly and distant.)

It is certainly true that if a cancer patient who was stable comes down with "viral pneumonia", dies, and tests positive for COVID19, they record that as a COVID19 fatality, not a cancer fatality.

Keep in mind too, this hypothesis that they're overattributing by a factor of maybe eight comes from an advisor to the Italian health ministry. I don't want to suggest that he's lying - just that he has a pretty serious structural incentive to say that actually their system isn't doing as badly in dealing with this as the numbers might imply. I mean, if you're losing patients at two to eight times the rate of other western nations, that's a bad look.; 3/24/20, 6:06 PM
Charlie Currie said...: Here's some good analysis on the Italian question. It suggests, based on the age and medical history of the deceased, that the outbreak stewed within their own medical industry. Infecting the already sick, and very eldery, along with medical personnel.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/24/the-italian-connection/; 3/24/20, 6:06 PM
mockturtle said...: Hydroxy-klor-o-kwin; 3/24/20, 6:06 PM
heyboom said...: My sister in Tallahassee put my nephew, who just spent a week here in SoCal and left on Saturday, on a 14-day quarantine before he can come to her house to see her.; 3/24/20, 6:09 PM
heyboom said...: Also, my wife works at two different hospitals here and neither has had a single case of the virus. Neither is being overwhelmed with patients either.

They are not allowing any visitors at all with the exception of one family member for the birth of a baby and end-of-life cases.; 3/24/20, 6:12 PM
chuck said...: The most informative comment I've seen on Italy, from an Italian, is at neo-neocon. The author makes several comments in the thread.; 3/24/20, 6:12 PM
Charlie Currie said...: From the article I posted above, which analysed a sampling of 355 deaths out of the initial 2003 deaths:

Of all 355 people who died, only three did not have any of the diseases listed above. Three!

Looking at all of this as a whole picture, I had a curious thought about who they were representing. I thought … consider the characteristics of the people who died:

More of the patients were over 90 than were under 60.
The average age was 79 years.
All but three of them had at least one other disease, so basically all of them were already sick.
Three-quarters of them had two other diseases, and half of them had three or more other diseases. Half!
My thought was … that’s not a sample of the people in the street. That’s not a sample of an Italian family.

That’s a sample of a totally different population.; 3/24/20, 6:14 PM
Roughcoat said...: I'm re-reading "The Great Mortality" by John Kelly, a history of the Black Death/Bubonic Plague of the 14th Century. Actually I'm listening to the Audible book version, but the Supreme Court has ruled that this counts as reading. Any-hoo, it's a terrific book, wonderfully well written -- it reads like a novel, and a very good novel at that. He writes about the Bubonic plague as if it's an entity, a living thing, a creature with volition and agency -- but without conscience, or pity (rather like a Terminator)-- moving across the countryside, in some places, at a historically measurable rate of two miles per day if not faster; sending out tendrils to attack a town along the way, slithering through the streets of large cities, killing people within hours of encountering them ... I was reminded of that great scene in the Ten Commandments of the coming of the Angel of Death to the Egyptian city, a weird sinister green mist moving through the streets, and the first born falling down dead as it passes.; 3/24/20, 6:17 PM
Ken B said...: chuck
Good link.
“ You can’t imagine how rapidly this virus can spread in the worst cases .... If you let this virus spread unchecked, in a crowded place with lot of irresponsible people (like New York or any heavily populated place) the situation can **easily** go really out of control.”
If she posted that on this blog ...; 3/24/20, 6:18 PM
Mark said...: And those airlines that flew tens of thousands of people from New York City to Florida need to pay the price too. Maybe lose any corporate welfare that they were supposed to get.; 3/24/20, 6:20 PM
Ken B said...: “And those airlines that flew tens of thousands of people from New York City to Florida need to pay the price too. Maybe lose any corporate welfare that they were supposed to get.”

Indeed.; 3/24/20, 6:22 PM
narciso said...: how can you have a quarantine and have the airports open, it doesn't compute,; 3/24/20, 6:26 PM
narciso said...: maybe this should have been said; 3/24/20, 6:31 PM
Laslo Spatula said...: Meanwhile:

Per the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System, between 2009 and 2014 there were an estimated 17,968 emergency room visits for foreign bodies stuck in a rectum.

And that was BEFORE Covid!

I am Laslo.; 3/24/20, 6:33 PM
narciso said...: reflecively they had blockaded hong kong, yet they could travel between Wuhan and there, without difficulty,; 3/24/20, 6:36 PM
effinayright said...: Ken B said...
“And those airlines that flew tens of thousands of people from New York City to Florida need to pay the price too. Maybe lose any corporate welfare that they were supposed to get.”

Indeed.
*********************

Yeah, THAT'll teach them to act in an entirely legal manner, at a time when the government itself didn't impose restrictions on them or anyone else---and still hasn't. But they should have KNOWN THEN WHAT WE KNOW NOW .

So yes, no welfare loans for them! Let them sink into bankruptcy and end all that unnecessary travel between NYC and wherever they fly. New Yorkers do too much traveling anyway.

S N O R T; 3/24/20, 6:39 PM
n.n said...: between 2009 and 2014 there were an estimated 17,968 emergency room visits for foreign bodies stuck in a rectum.

Ah, the Big Butt Theory. While the origin of the impelled objects remains speculative, their progression was noted to be accompanied by a dark humour.; 3/24/20, 6:46 PM
Drago said...: Mark: "And those airlines that flew tens of thousands of people from New York City to Florida need to pay the price too. Maybe lose any corporate welfare that they were supposed to get."

What, in the F, is that?

Are airlines supposed to staff up a Non-Govt Pandemic Analysis and Rapid Response Team?; 3/24/20, 6:48 PM
Drago said...: Can you imagine the lawsuits against the airlines for refusing to fly ticketed passengers from location A to location B prior to govt announcement of pandemics and travel restrictions and then those passengers forced to remain in the tainted area actually die there of the pandemic disease and sub-par health care?

Talk about a Trial Lawyer Full Employment Act.; 3/24/20, 6:50 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: And those airlines that flew tens of thousands of people from New York City to Florida need to pay the price too. Maybe lose any corporate welfare that they were supposed to get.

Irrational and hysterical.; 3/24/20, 6:51 PM
JaimeRoberto said...: "As for Italy, I would sleep with Sophia Loren, even if she had the Coronavirus."

In her prime, oh yeah. And for better or worse, the experience probably wouldn't last long enough to allow transmission of the virus.; 3/24/20, 6:57 PM
Mark said...: they should have KNOWN THEN WHAT WE KNOW NOW

You mean yesterday? Or the day before? Or Saturday?

On each of those days, it was known to everyone that NYC was spiking.; 3/24/20, 7:00 PM
sinz52 said...: wholelottasplainin' said: " But they should have KNOWN THEN WHAT WE KNOW NOW ."

I agree.

Airline carelessness isn't in any way responsible for this.

It reminds me of a scene from "The Andromeda Strain" where a scientist is appalled that a country doctor opened the satellite containing the microbes. The other scientist retorts something like "Sure, every country doctor should run his office like the Lunar Lab [containment facility]."

However, Airline carelessness contributed to the 9-11 terrorist attack. The airlines had fought against every recommendation to strengthen the cockpit doors against forced entry.; 3/24/20, 7:01 PM
John henry said...: One thing I've looked f out and not found is ethnicity of the deaths in Italy.

I'd like to know how many are Chinese nationals. There are an estimated 100m Chinese in Northern Italy working in companies bought
By Chinese. There were direct, nonstop flights between Northern Italy and Wuhan.

Lots of Chinese traveled home in January & February for the new years.

How many came back sick?

How many died in Italy?

How many infected italians with direct from Wuhan kung flu?

The is remarkably little discussion of this.

John Henry; 3/24/20, 7:05 PM
Mark said...: And, frankly, with all the high profits they have been taking from overpriced tickets, the airlines should have planned ahead and put some money away.

I wasn't a fan of the Government Motors bailout and I'm not all that happy at the prospect of taking taxpayers money to give it to the airlines.; 3/24/20, 7:05 PM
walter said...: "foreign bodies stuck in a rectum."
Control your borders.; 3/24/20, 7:07 PM
Michael K said...: While the origin of the impelled objects remains speculative, their progression was noted to be accompanied by a dark humour.

There was no doubt about the objects removed but there was lots of humor. I was once going to write a paper about all the things I removed from rectums. I had a whole file of photographs. My favorite was the guy who came in with the vibrator who said, "I don't care if you get it out,. I just want you to turn it off !" We had carrots with a condom on them.

One was a Smuckers jam jar. A friend looked in with a scope and saw "Smuckers ."

In private practice, my partner took out a water glass. Two weeks later the guy was back with the same glass. I guess it was his favorite.

The worst was a guy who was beaten up with a broom handle and the beater shoved the broken broom handle up his ass. He came in with the broom between his legs. It perforated his rectum and his liver.; 3/24/20, 7:10 PM
Mark said...: What about the more than a dozen flights from JFK to Orlando today and tomorrow?

Of all the excuses, the "the airlines couldn't have known" is the most lame.; 3/24/20, 7:10 PM
Michael K said...: I wasn't a fan of the Government Motors bailout and I'm not all that happy at the prospect of taking taxpayers money to give it to the airlines.

The original plan, before Nancy got hold of it, was a loan.; 3/24/20, 7:11 PM
n.n said...: How many infected italians with direct from Wuhan kung flu?

Sometimes, it's "diversity and inclusion". Other times, it's diversity and exclusion. Always, in principle, and in practice, it's selective, opportunistic.; 3/24/20, 7:11 PM
Michael K said...: Lots of Chinese traveled home in January & February for the new years.

How many came back sick?

How many died in Italy?

How many infected italians with direct from Wuhan kung flu?

The is remarkably little discussion of this.

Are you kidding ? Facebook is filled with Chinese posters pushing the CCP line.; 3/24/20, 7:13 PM
Bob Boyd said...: Why should Americans turn on one another? It's China we should go after. Sue them. Boycott them. Refuse to let them send their kids here for education. Make it hard for US companies to do business there. Make them the pariah nation they deserve to be until they, A) Pay up for the virus, 2) Change their evil ways and Y) Xi must step down.; 3/24/20, 7:15 PM
Drago said...: sinz: "However, Airline carelessness contributed to the 9-11 terrorist attack. The airlines had fought against every recommendation to strengthen the cockpit doors against forced entry."

The friggin' federal govt under Clinton forbade the FBI and CIA to share information (The Gorelick Wall) and the feds KNEW there were disreputable Al Qaeda types in Florida learning to takeoff but requesting ZERO instructions on how to land.

So yeah, its all the airlines fault.; 3/24/20, 7:17 PM
Michael K said...: I understand chrono causes permanent damage to your lungs. My mother had an embolism and had lung tissue necrosis. Not being able to get air is the worst thing I can imagine. That's how the Chicoms could get me to talk fast.

The younger cases, my wife just told me about some Olympic athlete, are probably examples of Cytokine Storm, which is rare but bad news.; 3/24/20, 7:17 PM
Drago said...: But you know what? The Fed govt under O-biden-bama made it all perfectly cool for the CIA and DOJ/FBI and NSA and foreign intelligence services to coordinate their spying on and framing of a republican political candidate and then President-elect and then President.

Priorities.....; 3/24/20, 7:19 PM
John henry said...: Michael k

No fusilli Jerry?

John Henry; 3/24/20, 7:23 PM
walter said...: MK,
Dictation of the doc notes must have required multiple takes.; 3/24/20, 7:24 PM
Mark said...: Waitin' for the sunset thread.; 3/24/20, 7:25 PM
n.n said...: The Fed govt under O-biden-bama made it all perfectly cool for the CIA and DOJ/FBI and NSA and foreign intelligence services to coordinate their spying on and framing of a republican

A novel standard in corruption. I still prefer Water Closet as an umbrella complex to cover the diverse sources, pathways, and publications of its progression.; 3/24/20, 7:27 PM
John henry said...: The friggin' federal govt under Clinton forbade the FBI and CIA to share information

No, Drago, that was the Nixon. Or perhaps Ford, administration. Based on what was coming out in the Church Committee hearings at the time, it was an excellent idea.

Cia and fbi were both born corrupt and have not gotten better with time. You DO NOT want these two agencies in cahoots with each other.

John Henry; 3/24/20, 7:31 PM
walter said...: Yah..Lazy Boy reclined and rc in hand.; 3/24/20, 7:31 PM
FullMoon said...: Ann Coulter
@AnnCoulter
·
20h
I'm watching MSNBC and it is absolutely heartbreaking to see what Trump has done to Italy.; 3/24/20, 7:32 PM
Mark said...: While we wait, I received the program for the 2020-21 season of the Washington Opera. It's an OK line-up. I'm still waiting for some that I'd like to see.

Fidelio
Rigoletto
Nixon in China
Cosi fan tutte
Boris Godunov
La boheme; 3/24/20, 7:32 PM
mockturtle said...: DeBlasio's blather notwithstanding, NY needs to be isolated. I.e., all ingress and egress blocked and enforced by LEO. It's probably too late now but these rats leaving the sinking ship are now spreading the virus all over other states. And DeBlasio wants the whole country under lockdown. No, Mr. D. Just New York. If we kept infected people isolated, it wouldn't spread. And until we can test everyone [and we should], assume everyone in NY is potentially infected.; 3/24/20, 7:33 PM
John henry said...: Michael K.

I don't do Facebook and won't let anyone use it AT All on any of my devices.

Facebook terms of service allow, or used to at one time, give them non exclusive rights to anything and everything on the device and permission to use it as they wish.

Doesn't matter whether you've put it on facebag or think you kept it private.

Are you OK with Facebook using your grandkids pics in advertising? Because you gave them the right to when you "accepted" the 50 pages of terms and conditions.

John Henry; 3/24/20, 7:39 PM
Drago said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/24/20, 7:40 PM
Drago said...: John Henry: "No, Drago, that was the Nixon."

Jamie Gorelick did not work in the Nixon admin.

And the CIA and FBI and DOJ and NSA and all the rest will ALWAYS work together to bring down republicans by doing whatever the hell they want to.

As they have. Repeatedly.; 3/24/20, 7:40 PM
iowan2 said...: Of all the excuses, the "the airlines couldn't have known" is the most lame.

couldn't have known what? That the Airline had no cause to deny any person their right to travel?; 3/24/20, 7:40 PM
Bob Boyd said...: NY needs to be isolated. I.e., all ingress and egress blocked and enforced by LEO

Escape From New York 2; 3/24/20, 7:42 PM
Mark said...: That's even lamer.

Of course the airlines can decide not to fly from one place to another. In fact, they do so every day.; 3/24/20, 7:42 PM
Meade said...: Bob Boyd said...
"Why should Americans turn on one another? It's China we should go after. Sue them. Boycott them. Refuse to let them send their kids here for education. Make it hard for US companies to do business there. Make them the pariah nation they deserve to be until they, A) Pay up for the virus, 2) Change their evil ways and Y) Xi must step down."

At first, when I read this, I thought: What. an. amazing. idea. Then, after watching the final episode of Curb Your Larry David, I realized: No.

Here's what we do. First we trick Putin into giving us Siberia. B.) we turn Siberia into a spite country. That's right — we create a BETTER China. Out of spite. And 11.) Put China out of business.; 3/24/20, 7:43 PM
wildswan said...: Five relatives have had COVID. The kid coasted through. The strong healthy 37-year-old man had a lot of pain and some difficulty breathing. He had childhood asthma. The strong healthy 34-year-old woman isn't enjoying it but didn't have her husband's difficulty. The kids coasted through. They live near Boston and they aren't in any statistics because Boston doesn't test unless you have contacted a China traveler or someone who has tested positive. They will get a test when there are enough. The bad part lasted three days, the stay in bed part, five, and recovery is going on.

So now it seems to me that if we were to say "just let young people get it," we might get a shock because those with asthma might have great problems. The same applies to kids and babies. What do the mom commenters think?

I mean - suppose there is no vaccine although there is a treatment (drink your fish tank, I've been told). It might seem that we should let kids get sick to develop natural immunity as we used to do with measles. You get measles young and it isn't bad but adults get very sick. So it was considered a necessary part of childhood to get measles (also mumps and chickenpox.) But if we similarly left everyone young to get covid and thereby develop immunity then, perhaps, with all those millions of illnesses we'd find that covid was very serious in anyone of any age that had asthma. We should solve this before the fall.; 3/24/20, 7:44 PM
John henry said...: Drago said...

Jamie Gorelick did not work in the Nixon admin

Of course not. But what she did do, quite rightly imo, was enforce the law preventing fbi/Cia canoodling. That law was passed in the 70s and laxly enforced.

And the CIA and FBI and DOJ and NSA and all the rest will ALWAYS work together to bring down republicans by doing whatever the hell they want to.

As they have. Repeatedly

You're talking out of both sides of your mouth, Drago. First you are upset Gorelick enforced the law. Then you upset at what happens when the law is not enforced.

Make up your mind.

John Henry; 3/24/20, 7:48 PM
Josephbleau said...: Fusilli! You bastard! how are you!; 3/24/20, 7:50 PM
NYC JournoList said...: I understand the hopeful innumeracy of some of the posters here, and the facts in New York are quickly becoming shocking:

“As of Tuesday morning, New York State had 25,665 cases, with 210 deaths. The state now accounts for nearly 7 percent of global cases tallied by The New York Times... New York has tested more than 91,000 people — by far the most of any state, Mr. Cuomo said.”

Simple maths suggests that more than 25 percent of New Yorkers tested are positive. There is now more than one death per hour in NYC.

Over the weekend one of my workers who lives in FiDi said the streets were filled with younger residents packing up with mom and dad to flee to the suburbs. Also, NYU and Pace ordered their dorms shut so they can be used for the sick. That means more thousands of 18-22 year olds headed throughout the nation.

My wife takes hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for lupus. The local pharmacy told her they can no longer fill the prescription due to lack of supply.; 3/24/20, 7:53 PM
Bob Boyd said...: Are you makin' fun a me?; 3/24/20, 7:55 PM
John henry said...: It actually goes back further, to the 40s. The fbi was not permitted to work outside of the US and parts of South America.

The OSS, CIA predecessor was not permitted to work in the us.

Not sure if this was by law or executive order.

John Henry; 3/24/20, 7:56 PM
narciso said...: Mark rieblings wedge details the long history of this, now much of the companys latin american division was initially ex bureau.; 3/24/20, 7:59 PM
Meade said...: Maybe a little.; 3/24/20, 8:01 PM
daskol said...: DeBlasio's blather notwithstanding, NY needs to be isolated. I.e., all ingress and egress blocked and enforced by LEO.

DeBlasio is an idiot, but this advice is at least a month, probably more like 2 or 3 or even 4 months out of date. The global village cities are where it came in, and are where it's spread most widely as seen by the high rate of positive tests for people with flu-like symptoms who get tested now. But it only started to infect the western world in places like NYC and London. I think anyone who's been to NYC or Boston or Seattle or Los Angeles or San Fran or anyone who's been in contact with anyone who's been there since December or January should socially isolate, as should everyone else.

Because the virus is not localized anymore, it's everywhere, but NY is literally the only place in the US testing aggressively. So really, if you think NYC and its immediate suburbs need a lockdown, you're calling for an aggressive lockdown of much of the country. Ironically it will be most effective in the places that are yet least affected, so start there: it might actually prevent community spread. Start with the middle and work your way out. Or, you know, have the whole country follow common sense (for OCD people) hygiene practice and get serious about social distancing for a couple/few weeks. You know, like we're all supposed to be doing.; 3/24/20, 8:01 PM
daskol said...: NYC Journolist, what's shocking about the numbers? That lots of people have been exposed to the virus? The death rate is under 1%? This is the fully expected result of widespread testing, and it's going to be similar--not necessarily 25%, but say above 10%--wherever we start doing testing. Because this thing has been here for months, and in case you hadn't heard, it's highly contagious (but thankfully not terribly virulent for vast majority of people). The shape of the curve is being revealed, but it has been hinted at for quite a while now.; 3/24/20, 8:06 PM
Mark said...: Quarantine -- locking people in -- is always a difficult thing. But by design is necessary to keep contagion from spreading and leading to even greater infection and death.

I was feeling optimistic that there was sunlight around the corner.

This NYers spreading out to the country is unsettling, though.; 3/24/20, 8:07 PM
Curious George said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/24/20, 8:08 PM
daskol said...: The silver lining of high infection rates: our hospitals have not been overwhelmed yet, and herd immunity is closer at hand than we thought it would be, or at least those who thought we were trying to stop the virus dead in its tracks thought. There was never any real option of preventing people lots of people from getting the virus, there was only trying to protect the vulnerable from infection and trying to avoid overwhelming healthcare infrastructure. I don't know that we know how we're doing on those scores yet, but it's not obvious or shockingly bad, that much is clear.; 3/24/20, 8:09 PM
chuck said...: but NY is literally the only place in the US testing aggressively

Utah has a bit less than half the population of NY City and has tested a greater fraction of the population. Not by much, and I expect that the change, but that how things stand today.; 3/24/20, 8:11 PM
Ken B said...: Mark said...
What about the more than a dozen flights from JFK to Orlando today and tomorrow?

Of all the excuses, the "the airlines couldn't have known" is the most lame.

======

Exactly the point. It isn’t the flights *before* the lockdown that are the real problem.

People here are acting like the airlines are *entitled* to bailouts. When we don’t even know the industry won’t need to shrink. So much for the free enterprise system. Private profits. Socialized losses.

And as Mark says , these passengers are not allowed to fly. The airlines turn a blind eye.
Private profits but socialized losses.; 3/24/20, 8:11 PM
Meade said...: Curious George said...

"Here's my erection to this:"; 3/24/20, 8:11 PM
Marc in Eugene said...: That's a proportion I respect: five major works from the repertoire and a contemporary one (Nixon not being my choice at all); the Metropolitan Opera is in a different and superior situation altogether but is staging 23 operas, two of which are contemporary. I'd add another two contemporary ones at least but they're not sensible enough to consult me. Looking about at the major houses, two contemporary operas seems to be the limit.; 3/24/20, 8:12 PM
daskol said...: Mormons, chuck. They get shit done.; 3/24/20, 8:15 PM
Ken B said...: Fascinating to watch the embrace of Obama style bailouts and the abandonment of free enterprise by so many commenters here. “Come back Barry! All is forgiven!”; 3/24/20, 8:16 PM
Ken B said...: Curious George said...

"Here's my erection to this:"

A short post.; 3/24/20, 8:16 PM
Drago said...: JH: "It actually goes back further, to the 40s. The fbi was not permitted to work outside of the US and parts of South America.

The OSS, CIA predecessor was not permitted to work in the us.

Not sure if this was by law or executive order."

Irrelevant. The dems and deep staters do what they want and clearly have nothing to fear from the republican establishment. The laws mean nothing.; 3/24/20, 8:17 PM
daskol said...: Also the only numbers I'm seeing at the sites tracking things are tests with results. The rate of testing is probably still increasing in NY, certainly in NYC. In my own social circle more than a dozen have been tested since Friday, more than half of them in last couple of days. It's painful to listen to at times, given the whiny voice, but I'm glad that Cuomo has been getting somewhat hysterical about ventilators this past week. The USS Comfort is on its way, and Javits is set up as a 2000 bed hospital, and rumors are that ventilators in large numbers are on the way. There are also rumors that we're fucked and nothing can save us, but I think those are just about increasing the urgency of the situation to overcome lethargy, sloth and idiotic hospital requisition process and procedures.; 3/24/20, 8:19 PM
Nichevo said...: https://t.co/P5lOm43Gpy?amp=1; 3/24/20, 8:19 PM
William said...: I live in NYC where records are about to be broken. I don't know why this is so. Subways? DeBlasio let the kids out of school relatively late? The NYC Commissioner of Health recommended everybody go to Chinatown and celebrate the lunar New Year? Anyway, here we are....There's a wish to assign scapegoats, but only within the confines of pc. It's Trump's fault. He didn't have enough test kits.....In the flux of events, it's impossible to get everything right. I just hope that when they evaluate why NYC became ground zero, they speculate that there might be some non-pc causes.; 3/24/20, 8:20 PM
walter said...: wildswan said...Five relatives have had COVID
They live near Boston and they aren't in any statistics because Boston doesn't test unless you have contacted a China traveler or someone who has tested positive.
--
What? Have they had an actual diagnosis or not?; 3/24/20, 8:20 PM
Nichevo said...: That is, for everyone giving Elon Musk shit, apparently he has delivered a thousand ventilators to California.; 3/24/20, 8:21 PM
daskol said...: Ken B, I think this govt bail out is going to be a fiasco because we suffer from the same agency problem we've always had in terms of our leaders, our interests and their's. However, this is a distinctly different situation we're trying to bail out here: we've shut the fucking economy down, and are using ever escalating measures of force to keep it down. This isn't the business cycle or asset bubble or some nefarious crew of bankers and globalists socializing their losses and protecting their private profits.; 3/24/20, 8:21 PM
Nichevo said...: Re: Utah, it might be a good thing for them to test because 1, apparently the Mormons are really high on illegal immigrants, and 2, all of their senators and representatives seem to be dropping dead or headed that way. So they might have a bigger problem than average.

Naturally, 1 has nothing to do with 2.; 3/24/20, 8:23 PM
narciso said...: He is dense, isnt he, if we are flatlining the economy we need to sustain through the interval.; 3/24/20, 8:25 PM
Tomcc said...: BTW mockturtle, I saw an article today on National Review (online) that associates the deaths at the nursing home in Kirkland to "patient zero" in Seattle. The contention being, that although people who came in to contact with him were quarantined, they missed someone.; 3/24/20, 8:27 PM
Ken B said...: Daskol
I think we agree. I am talking only about the airline sub thread. Mark observed that the airlines right now are flying passengers from New York who are under a lockdown order to Florida. And tomorrow. He suggested that they should not receive a bailout as a result. I agreed. The crew here decided that the airlines are entitled to a bailout!
I a great with bridge financing for companies and workers in general over this period. But maybe not for these particular airlines running these particular flights. The industry is about to shrink. Let’s keep the other airlines alive instead.; 3/24/20, 8:28 PM
etbass said...: Two days ago the Corona bill was going to be $1T. Then yesterday it was $2.5T. Today it is $6T. We better get this thing signed or it is going to be the GDP.; 3/24/20, 8:28 PM
Original Mike said...: Blogger Meade said...
Curious George said..."Here's my erection to this:"

You've got him pegged. (Not that it requires much insight).; 3/24/20, 8:33 PM
mockturtle said...: BTW mockturtle, I saw an article today on National Review (online) that associates the deaths at the nursing home in Kirkland to "patient zero" in Seattle. The contention being, that although people who came in to contact with him were quarantined, they missed someone.

Well, if you consider Kirkland 'Seattle', yes, it is in King County and a patient care staffer was apparently 'patient zero' at Life Care Center, IIRC. However, patient zero in WA state [i.e., the first case in WA and the first case in the US] was in Everett, Snohomish County, a man who had arrived home from Wuhan.; 3/24/20, 8:35 PM
daskol said...: But how can we argue that airlines don't get a piece of the bailout? We're forcing their clientele to stay home, and forbidding them from flying most of their international routes. Like subways, which I think people should generally avoid right now, air travel for some remains essential. It's a strategic industry, among our most strategically important cogs in the great logistics machine that keeps our world humming. That will be true even if we have greatly reduced business or even pleasure travel in the new post COVID-19 world. I get that flying NYers to anywhere else pisses people off, that CEO compensation is obscene, that stock buybacks in the past were poorly aligned with overall financial health for the companies, but these are precisely the companies that need assistance because of the measures we are forcing on their industries.; 3/24/20, 8:35 PM
daskol said...: If we don't want NYers boarding planes for other cities, we need the Feds to step in and enforce that. That's not for airlines, that's not even for governors: it's an interstate thing. And hopefully, for most people, a commonsense thing. But probably not.; 3/24/20, 8:38 PM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: " I mean, if you're losing patients at two to eight times the rate of other western nations, that's a bad look."

No shit. For a generation "Italian healthcare" is going to be right up there with "British cooking".

In fairness, I've had British cooking and most of it was pretty fab, but give a dog a bad name...; 3/24/20, 8:41 PM
Ken B said...: “ But how can we argue that airlines don't get a piece of the bailout? We're forcing their clientele to stay home”

Not all all airlines. Those particular airlines. And yes we are forcing SOME of their clientele to stay home. The clientele in question are New Yorkers who were defying an emergency quarantine order. The airlines were abetting them. The airlines could have allowed only those not resident in NY to fly home. They wanted the extra ticket fees.

You are right it’s a strategic industry. But it’s about to shrink. They won’t all survive no matter what we do. Let those who helped bust the quarantine fend for themselves, we can help the others.; 3/24/20, 8:42 PM
mockturtle said...: William: This article is from March 6 but explains how a lot of NYC-area cases got started. NY Coronavirus Case; 3/24/20, 8:44 PM
daskol said...: My uncle lives in Florida and has a place in NY. He's in NY right now, but if he were to present his ID at the airline office, it's a FL driver's license. I'm not even sure he's defying an order if he leaves, but airlines are not enforcement agencies. Also they're flying these routes, with planes empty, in any event. I do not think this is craven behavior by the airlines nor is denying an industry we've shut down bailout money fair. If we want NYers off those planes, use the TSA or the National Guard or the friggin NYPD to prevent it. I don't know if that's a particularly good idea, but it's better than punitive action against airlines. I just asked my wife, who actually knows a little stuff about this as a lawyer with airline clients--this is not her specialty, it's other areas of law--but she said she doubts they could even prevent it, that they haven't been so empowered.; 3/24/20, 8:48 PM
Mark said...: But how can we argue that airlines don't get a piece of the bailout?

Forfeit.

They forfeited any claim on relief when they decided to be complicit in possibly fucking the entire country.; 3/24/20, 8:48 PM
daskol said...: I don't think airlines are even empowered to stop this. I'm not even clear if Cuomo can, although it would be the right thing to do. But that's what TSA, the National Guard and other arms of Federal enforcement are there for. Except there's nothing federal to enforce here, so what the fuck? It may be incredibly stupid that we're letting this happen--I think so--but it's ain't on the airlines.; 3/24/20, 8:51 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: "we turn Siberia into a spite country."

Heh. The mere phrase and idea of a "spite country" made me laugh out loud.; 3/24/20, 8:51 PM
NYC JournoList said...: According to Cuomo 12 percent of NYC residents who have tested positive have entered the hospital. That is one in eight.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/us/nyc-coronavirus-hospitals/index.html; 3/24/20, 8:55 PM
Ken B said...: Good article Mockturtle.
It says there were 33 cases then. Hmmm.; 3/24/20, 8:55 PM
NYC JournoList said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/24/20, 8:57 PM
Ken B said...: Good article Mockturtle.
It says there were 33 cases then. Hmmm.; 3/24/20, 8:57 PM
Tomcc said...: mockturtle- "Seattle" was shorthand for Sea-Tac, the airport through which patient zero entered from China.; 3/24/20, 8:58 PM
Ken B said...: Daskol
No one has the right to aid in the commission of a crime, and an airline can remove a passenger at will.; 3/24/20, 8:58 PM
FullMoon said...: Let those who helped bust the quarantine fend for themselves, we can help the others.

Fukin' a right ! Shoot the planes down, get rid of the escapees and the means of escape. Two birds, one stone. Efficiency. After a couple get shot down, the rest will behave themselves.; 3/24/20, 8:59 PM
daskol said...: Our airlines didn't fuck the country, nor has Grayhound or Peter Pan or Amtrak. They're the rails on which this thing travels, but they operate those rails under charter. There are rules here. This isn't 'Nam. And I don't think they're even breaking the rules. End the stupid, ASAP, and stop flying those routes or get draconian about letting people on the planes. But punishing a critical industry we are crippling by withhold bailout money strikes me as not only unfair, but pointless: it doesn't stop the stupid, and just adds more, different stupid to the equation.; 3/24/20, 9:01 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: "So now it seems to me that if we were to say "just let young people get it," we might get a shock because those with asthma might have great problems. The same applies to kids and babies. What do the mom commenters think?"

I think I'd consider spending the next while in another country that's doing a better job of control until a vaccine comes out.; 3/24/20, 9:01 PM
Mark said...: When someone is this invested in obtuseness, it is folly to try to argue with her.; 3/24/20, 9:02 PM
walter said...: Just heard John Batchelor interviewing a doc who referred to Fauci as "The Fauch".
Would have been better with Chicago Bears accent.; 3/24/20, 9:04 PM
narciso said...: Governor of nevada plans chloroquinine, stupid or evil, maybe its both.; 3/24/20, 9:05 PM
daskol said...: Andrew Cuomo said there were more than 12,000 people with confirmed cases of coronavirus in the city, and about 13% of positive cases require hospitalization

That's interesting: 13% of people ill enough to get a test, which is already likely a small subset of those infected--there is some broad testing, like in New Rochelle, but it's still mostly people seeking medical intervention getting tested--sounds lower than the global 15% of infected people get seriously ill we've seen used in the scariest models.; 3/24/20, 9:07 PM
Ken B said...: “ Our airlines didn't fuck the country”

Assumes facts not in evidence.

They were willing to risk fucking the country, and aid in law breaking and reckless behavior to do it. I don’t think that makes them *entitled* to anything.; 3/24/20, 9:07 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: We seem to be largely hollowed out of competence in our institutions, and that is sad.; 3/24/20, 9:08 PM
mockturtle said...: It says there were 33 cases then. Hmmm.

That would be 2112 cases if they doubled every three days. As there are now over 26,000 cases in NY, there must have been other origins. Or the rate was more rapid due to the many social activities of that particular patient. Or both. Early in the NY epidemic, nearly all the cases were in Westchester and New York Counties where he lived and worked.; 3/24/20, 9:12 PM
mockturtle said...: Per Full Moon: Fukin' a right ! Shoot the planes down, get rid of the escapees and the means of escape. Two birds, one stone. Efficiency. After a couple get shot down, the rest will behave themselves.

LOLOLOL! :-D; 3/24/20, 9:13 PM
n.n said...: CDC Tests for COVID-19

CDC has developed a new laboratory test kit for use in testing patient specimens for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19. ... CDC is remanufacturing the reagents with more robust quality control measures. New tests will be distributed once this issue has been addressed. CDC continues to perform initial and confirmatory testing.
...
Initial work to develop a serology test for SARS-CoV-2 is underway at CDC. In order to develop the test, CDC needs blood samples from people who had COVID-19 at least 21 days after their symptoms first started. Researchers are currently working to develop the basic parameters for the test, which will be refined as more samples become available. Once the test is developed, CDC will need additional samples to evaluate whether the test works as intended.

How are they diagnosing the Wuhan-sourced virus and COVID-19 disease? Symptoms?

On Monday, February 3, 2020, CDC submitted an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) package to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in order to expedite FDA permitted use of the CDC diagnostic panel in the United States.

Regulatory relief.; 3/24/20, 9:14 PM
mockturtle said...: Freeman @ 9:08: You are so very right and it is not just sad but rather frightening.; 3/24/20, 9:15 PM
daskol said...: I get why people are angry about these stupid flights out of NY. However, I don't think they're breaking any laws. In fact, if airlines were to prevent people from flying, I think they'd likely be on the wrong side of some laws, perhaps committing torts. Laws are not that nimble and aren't adjusted in time to help with this kind of thing. That's why you impose martial law if you need to pull shit like what some of you want done.; 3/24/20, 9:16 PM
mockturtle said...: ""we turn Siberia into a spite country."

But nothing could ever be successfully implemented there. Because things done in spite never turn out right.; 3/24/20, 9:19 PM
n.n said...: another country that's doing a better job of control

A better job of control or the viral spread and disease have been dampened through naturally acquired immunity, implying that the virus has been in the wild longer than popularly believed.; 3/24/20, 9:19 PM
Ken B said...: Mockturtle
You usually seem sensible. How is declining to pay shareholders of American Airlines a bailout remotely like shooting down planes?; 3/24/20, 9:19 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: So now it seems to me that if we were to say "just let young people get it," we might get a shock because those with asthma might have great problems. The same applies to kids and babies. What do the mom commenters think?

This mom of six commenter thinks that in children with no health problems it appears no more dangerous than the five billion colds they get every year, and is not remotely afraid of her children getting it. If I had a child with compromised respiration in some fashion, such as asthma, I would enact whatever protective measures our pediatrician suggested, but I have seen zero data that healthy kids have anything to fear from it.

There are many many other things that are bigger threats to kids that people take for granted. Stepfathers, to give one example (and 2/3 of my kids have a stepfather). Cars. Alcohol. Elevated surfaces.; 3/24/20, 9:22 PM
mockturtle said...: Mockturtle
You usually seem sensible. How is declining to pay shareholders of American Airlines a bailout remotely like shooting down planes?

WTF? Just because I LOL-ed at Full Moon's post? I don't have a dog in that particular fight. I just thought it was funny. To me, almost everything is funny in some way.; 3/24/20, 9:26 PM
daskol said...: mockturtle is usually sensible, which is why I'm surprised to see her digging in on the notion that there was some patient zero in the NY area a few weeks ago. that seems incredibly unlikely. for example, at the same time that guy was in the media over his social escapades, my wife and I were recovering from flu-like symptoms. a few days afterwards, we learned that her colleague at work tested positive for coronavirus in a hospital where she was being treated for pneumonia. a few of my colleagues, notably the ones I work closest with, proceeded to get sick over the next week or so, even though my wife and I both stayed home from the moment that we felt ill, even ahead of any official social distancing kicking in.

we did not do contact tracing, and by the time we tried to do it with this guy, it was a lost cause because of how widespread it was in the region.; 3/24/20, 9:27 PM
daskol said...: oh, and despite being trapped in a house with us, our kids didn't show any symptoms of anything beyond one of them saying he couldn't smell or taste anything for a few days. for me it was a bad cold or mild flu, a couple days of chills and aches and then about a week of congestion and coughing, although not severe.; 3/24/20, 9:29 PM
daskol said...: when we finally do antibody testing, which what the hell, why aren't we doing that yet? but I'd wager that when we do that on any scale, we're going to find it's been here for months, and infected many more people than the current numbers suggest. we're not capturing the spread of the virus in real time with this testing. if we'd followed guidance of the public intellectuals of tail risk who were advising today's measures and more back in late January, we might have been able to track this infection. now we're just cleaning up the mess, and God willing, flattening the curve. but we are far from seeing the shape of the curve.; 3/24/20, 9:33 PM
mockturtle said...: Martha McCallum interviewed a mother in New Jersey today whose 25-year-old son is in an induced coma in ICU with COVID. He had NO underlying conditions and was fit and healthy prior to infection. Rare, to be sure, but we can't overlook the fact that some young people get very sick with this virus.; 3/24/20, 9:39 PM
effinayright said...: Mark said...
But how can we argue that airlines don't get a piece of the bailout?

Forfeit.

They forfeited any claim on relief when they decided to be complicit in possibly fucking the entire country.
**************************

You and Ken B should get a room.

And a bong.; 3/24/20, 9:40 PM
Nichevo said...: But nothing could ever be successfully implemented there. Because things done in spite never turn out right.

Like picking airlines to jerk around. Has it even been established that some airlines broke some law, and others didn't? You buy your ticket on a website. Who's going to yank your chain and quiz you and ground you? Do they confine you at LGA? Send you to Rikers? Send you home (and on whose dime)? How would it even work to fulfil this velleity? People don't know. I just heard about this (travel ban? Traveler quarantine?) tonight, and reached out to a couple of people. One just flew down a couple of days ago and does not think he has to stay in. One is taking Auto Train from FL to NY on Thursday and is not interested in outside inputs. If you're gonna shoot 'em, make it quick.; 3/24/20, 9:41 PM
mockturtle said...: Ken B and daskol: I guess I've run out of both sense and sensibility. But I never liked Jane Austen, anyway.; 3/24/20, 9:41 PM
Mark said...: There is more to living in society than merely not breaking any fucking laws.

There is common sense. There is responsibility without having the heavy hand of government forcing you to do it.; 3/24/20, 9:48 PM
chuck said...: @nichevo

The percentage of positives in Utah is a bit below average for states and there has been one death. There are currently four positives in my jurisdiction, basically the northern fifth of the state. Most of the state is thinly populated, I recall driving down to the North Rim of the Grand Canyon with a friend from the Bronx, and she kept looking out the window and finally asked "What do people do?" She was also shocked to see kids driving four wheelers in a Manti parade, shook her to her malpractice and negligence core :); 3/24/20, 9:50 PM
effinayright said...: Ken B said...
“ But how can we argue that airlines don't get a piece of the bailout? We're forcing their clientele to stay home”

Not all all airlines. Those particular airlines. And yes we are forcing SOME of their clientele to stay home. The clientele in question are New Yorkers who were defying an emergency quarantine order. The airlines were abetting them. The airlines could have allowed only those not resident in NY to fly home. They wanted the extra ticket fees.
******************

The federal government has NO POWER to order all citizens to stay at home. Neither does the state of New York. If they did, where were the goddamn police at the airports to force the airlines from flying, and from boardeing passengers??

Just STFU, will you? You and your doppelganger/sock puppet Mark have your heads three feet up your ass.; 3/24/20, 9:50 PM
FullMoon said...: Ken B said...

Mockturtle
You usually seem sensible. How is declining to pay shareholders of American Airlines a bailout remotely like shooting down planes?

Punishment for bad behavior. Actions have consequences..; 3/24/20, 9:53 PM
mockturtle said...: For the record: IMO, the airlines should definitely get some financial assistance, as they have been badly hurt by this pandemic. Boeing, no, I think not. They were in trouble before the virus. The workers who might be affected by lockdowns should receive checks.; 3/24/20, 10:12 PM
walter said...: mockturtle said...we can't overlook the fact that some young people get very sick with this virus.
--
Oh..we will not be allowed to, that is clear by now.; 3/24/20, 10:27 PM
walter said...: Now if only the yoot push for advances in treatment vs Sex on the Beach.; 3/24/20, 10:29 PM
Ken B said...: “ The federal government has NO POWER to order all citizens to stay at home. Neither does the state of New York”

It wasn’t a federal order. I think you will find most states have more extensive emergency powers than you think.; 3/24/20, 10:33 PM
ngtrains said...: Costco hs posted - no returns of toilet paper, paper towels, wipes or water, rice or lysol; 3/24/20, 10:38 PM
Ken B said...: Mark said...
“There is more to living in society than merely not breaking any fucking laws.
There is common sense. There is responsibility without having the heavy hand of government forcing you to do it.”

When people start dying in Florida everyone here will forget they had this conversation. Or maybe I am giving them too much credit, maybe some will think “I sure showed Mark and Ken, yessiree boy.”; 3/24/20, 10:39 PM
Ken B said...: I got curious

New York City

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/about/healthcode/health-code-article11.pdf

Penalties. (a) No person shall intentionally or negligently cause or promote the spread of disease:

(1) By failure to observe, or by improper observance of, applicable requirements of isolation, quarantine, exclusion, treatment or other preventive measures, or by failing to take other precautions in caring for cases or carriers, or suspect cases or carriers of a contagious disease; or

(2) By unnecessarily exposing himself or herself to other persons, knowing himself or herself to be a case or carrier, or suspect case or carrier of a contagious disease; or,

(3) By unnecessarily exposing a person in his or her charge or under his or her care, knowing such person to be a case or carrier or suspect case or carrier of a contagious disease, to other persons; or,

(4) By unnecessarily exposing a person in his or her charge or under his or her care to another person who is known to be a case or carrier, or suspect case or carrier of a contagious disease; or,

(5) By unnecessarily exposing the remains of a person in his or her charge or under his or her care, knowing such person to have been a case or carrier or suspect case or carrier of a contagious disease at the time of his or her death, to other persons.

——————-
So as I said, it was a crime. Several clauses probably apply to the airline staff too.
States have extensive powers.; 3/24/20, 10:49 PM
FullMoon said...: When people start dying in Florida everyone here will forget they had this conversation. Or maybe I am giving them too much credit, maybe some will think “I sure showed Mark and Ken, yessiree boy.”

Keep hope alive.; 3/24/20, 10:52 PM
FullMoon said...: So as I said, it was a crime. Several clauses probably apply to the airline staff too.

They were just following orders.; 3/24/20, 10:57 PM
Birkel said...: When hypothesized future events happen...

Air. Tight.; 3/24/20, 11:02 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: Martha McCallum interviewed a mother in New Jersey today whose 25-year-old son is in an induced coma in ICU with COVID. He had NO underlying conditions and was fit and healthy prior to infection. Rare, to be sure, but we can't overlook the fact that some young people get very sick with this virus.

Well, and let's all hope the virus is defeated, but a case here or there where that happens .... whatcha gonna do. Kids drop dead from surprise heart defects playing soccer. A friend's daughter was walking home from school and a driver skidded on ice and killed her. My youngest child was born with two knots in her cord and should have died, but didn't. You can't worry too much about those faint possibilities.

And regarding the airlines .... come on. How far are you obsessives -- ok, our one obsessive -- going to take that? Who has the right to travel and who doesn't? We were two states away the week of March 9, when this was all starting to hit the fan, visiting my daughter at Arizona State which had two of the early cases. We spent the week having a great time all over the Phoenix metro area and then drove back to south Texas. Do you want to retroactively punish us for "exposing" the people along our way and our own community? Another anecdote-our friends who live in Manhattan saw the writing on the wall and bugged out to their cabin in Vermont about two weeks ago. He's a corporate attorney and she's a microbiologist. They are sitting in the middle of their three acres waiting this out, but it's possible they took it with them. Should they not have been allowed to leave the city? Are they horrible people? Where would you draw the line?; 3/24/20, 11:04 PM
Mark said...: How far would I take it? Where would I draw the line?

Well, I would draw the line around hot zones that are skyrocketing such that the people leaving are likely bringing the infection with them. That is the essence of quarantine.

Right now, that means only NY.; 3/24/20, 11:10 PM
Mark said...: But I would encourage everyone everywhere to stay in your own community. Is it all that impossible? For even a month? A week?; 3/24/20, 11:11 PM
Ken B said...: So Full Moon, and the rest of you ...

You agree that abortion clinics are *entitled* to bailouts. Including ones that do third trimester abortions. Right? Planned Parenthood for sure. Because it’s just so wrong to not want to bail out a company because you disapprove of how they behave.; 3/24/20, 11:16 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: Planned Parenthood is always evil

Airlines are not; 3/24/20, 11:19 PM
FullMoon said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/24/20, 11:22 PM
mockturtle said...: Ken B, whom are you addressing? I don't think anyone in the current discussion favors bailing out abortion factories. And I'm sure at least some of us want to help the airline industry. I know I do.; 3/24/20, 11:23 PM
mockturtle said...: Well, I'm going to bed and taking Ivanhoe with me. 'Nite, all!; 3/24/20, 11:26 PM
grackle said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/25/20, 1:38 AM
Bruce Hayden said...: “when we finally do antibody testing, which what the hell, why aren't we doing that yet? but I'd wager that when we do that on any scale, we're going to find it's been here for months, and infected many more people than the current numbers suggest. we're not capturing the spread of the virus in real time with this testing. if we'd followed guidance of the public intellectuals of tail risk who were advising today's measures and more back in late January, we might have been able to track this infection. now we're just cleaning up the mess, and God willing, flattening the curve. but we are far from seeing the shape of the curve.”

I don’t think that it is going to be that widespread nationally. Surely above what we have found so far. There have been good reasons for the big concentrations so far. NY, and NYC in particular, did everything wrong it could, presumably trusting to its woke specialism. Eight million people living cheek to jowl, in densities twice that of most other big cities in this country (with Manhattan far worse). Transportation is primarily through public transit, cabs, limos, and a lot of walking. Routinely more chances of infection, on a daily basis, than probably anywhere else in this country. Facing that danger, the authorities did everything wrong. They didn’t get enough respirators, when they could. DeBlasio was worse. He didn’t try to order epidemic supplies, until March 6, weeks after they had begun disappearing from Amazon. In their abject specialness, finding that they couldn’t acquire masks and gloves the way the rest of the country did, by buying them in the market, demanded that the rest of the country send them theirs. After Trump informed the country of the pandemic, the mayor encouraged his citizens to #Resist by attending the Chinese Lunar New Year festivities and to hug a ChiCom. Apparently to prove, again, #OrangemanBad. DeBlasio’s Woke response was to try to show that Trump was wrong. Everything that did was too little, and too late, in possibly the most vulnerable city in the country.

Other hotspots in the country had their own excuses. Seattle, San Francisco, and LA have large Chinese populations, with, before Trump’s travel restrictions, lots of travelers back and forth with China. Plus more shit on the streets than anywhere else in the country. New Orleans, the new hot spot, had its annual Marti Gras festivities, where people come from all over, get really drunk, in dense crowds.

I think in the end, we are going to find that the pandemic in this country was primarily a Blue Big city problem. From there, throughout the rest of the country, as you get further and Further away from the bigger Dem controlled cities, the infection rate is going to be lower and lower, with rural America already living permanently in what is effectively quarantine. As someone noted a couple days ago, cities have been population sinks for centuries, if not millennia, with their populations maintained by immigration from the countryside and from foreign countries. And much of the population lost in the big cities was inevitably by disease.

In their hatred of Trump, the Politicians and libtards running these cities, and DeBlasio in particular, ignored their Inherent vulnerabilities, and cut their own noses off out of spite. I don’t think that you can legitimately generalize from the NYC statistics to the country, probably even using a logarithmic scale, thanks to its fairly unique vulnerabilities to this sort of pandemic, combined with gross incompetence at the top. I am not saying that there hasn’t been spread of the virus, but that the conditions in these cities encouraged much faster spread.; 3/25/20, 5:39 AM
Ken B said...: Blogger mockturtle said...
Ken B, whom are you addressing? I don't think anyone in the current discussion favors bailing out abortion factories. And I'm sure at least some of us want to help the airline industry. I know I do.

========

I am addressing all of you, you included. I don’t care if you accept my arguments but I do insist you accept your own. Your argument is that they broke no law so we cannot deny them a bailout just because we disapprove of what they did.; 3/25/20, 8:26 AM
mockturtle said...: Your argument is that they broke no law so we cannot deny them a bailout just because we disapprove of what they did.

That was never MY argument, Ken B. Someone else's, perhaps.; 3/25/20, 9:16 AM
daskol said...: Bruce, NYC is deeply and broadly connected to the global village: besides the factors you list, our connectedness to the world are a huge factor of why it's spread here (and on the west coast) early and apparently widely. Thing is, much of the US is well connected to NYC (and major cities on the west coast), which is why I think, if the virus made our shores in very early 2020 or even late 2019, it's probably going to be found all over the place. That's why a lockdown, national but focused on coastal cities, starting in January with the travel ban may have been briefer and more effective than anything we can do now.; 3/25/20, 9:38 AM
Narr said...: Bruce Hayden's post is a welcome morning dose of sense.

Now, if only the sun would come out.

Narr
Newsflash--Prince Charlie is +!; 3/25/20, 10:06 AM