I think a strong message is being sent to New Hampshire voters to drop Biden and vote for someone else — Buttigieg or Klobuchar — if you want a chance to stop Bernie.
Less than a month ago, Biden was on top:
February 10, 2020
Klobuchar on the upswing meets Biden on the downswing.
On the Real Clear Politics graph of poll averages for the New Hampshire primary, both candidates hit 11.3:
I think a strong message is being sent to New Hampshire voters to drop Biden and vote for someone else — Buttigieg or Klobuchar — if you want a chance to stop Bernie.
Less than a month ago, Biden was on top:
I think a strong message is being sent to New Hampshire voters to drop Biden and vote for someone else — Buttigieg or Klobuchar — if you want a chance to stop Bernie.
Less than a month ago, Biden was on top:
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«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 399 of 399"Nothing you quoted is even remotely close to "calling for imprisonment of scientists, corporate leaders, and political opponents for failing to support their party agenda."
Not even remotely close? What, generally speaking, is the purpose and result of criminal prosecution?
@BernieSanders
Fossil fuel executives should be criminally prosecuted for the destruction they have knowingly caused.
Corporate Executive Accountability Act
If CEO salaries are high now, how much more are you going to have to pay when there's more risk?
Bloomberg bankrolling his own campaign calls to my mind Mary Burke's campaign against Walker. A huge reason she got the nomination were her enormous bank accounts.
Honestly, I cannot properly handicap the Dem race, as I don't see the appeal of any of them: they are all too far left for me. That said, it is clear that only Sanders generates real enthusiasm. The question is does he gain enough by being the hard left outsider to offset those moderates he may loose. He may be the most difficult candidate to beat, although I still think Trump should b able to beat him.
@Rick:
Sure, if Venezuela has one problem it's too much rule of law. Definitely.
I appreciate the attempt to sound clever, Rick, but I'm afraid you've completely misunderstood the point. You introduced the phrase "Venezuela policies," and I asked you to identify such policies, and you said, "Subjugating business to government." I pointed out that we, and every other country in the world, already do that.
Since every country in the world doesn't look like Venezuela, "subjugating business to government" does not work as an explanation for why Venezuela looks like Venezuela. Please try again.
’I foresee massive layoffs and a reduction in the GDP.’
Chuck, an economic illiterate in the mold of his ‘magnificent’ Obama, again tries to derail a thread about Dem misery and turn in into another anti-Trump diatribe. What puzzles me is that he steadfastly refuses to take my ‘commenting bet’, re: Trump will increase from 2016 his states won, EVs won, and popular votes won. His reticence could be easy to dismiss as his nominal cowardice, but it may be more than that.
I’m starting to believe that losing such a bet would void his employment contract. Come on, Chuckles - man up and take the bet!! Or can’t you afford to lose six month’s income? Don’t be chicken...
"A huge reason she got the nomination were her enormous bank accounts."
Is that like "huge tracts o' land"?
@hawkeyedjb:
Not even remotely close? What, generally speaking, is the purpose and result of criminal prosecution?
Not even. What is the purpose of prosecution? To enforce the law. What is the result? Usually fines, sometimes incarceration.
Passing a law that you think is a bad law is not the same thing as throwing political opponents in jail in a manner similar to Cuba or the USSR, which was the original commenters' point.
"Potentially lethal objects"? Meadhouse must have some hellacious big staplers laying around (holdovers from Ann's Wall Street days producing 75 page indentures?).
Farmer
Re whether Sanders is far far left.
You didn’t notice that Sanders said he’d nationalize electricity?
It’s no answer to say he would fail. We are talking about his goals.
Trump can't withdraw from Afghanistan till after the election. If he withdraws, and there's terrorist attack, the D's will claim he caused it by the Pull-out. The Bottom line is Joe Six-pack doesn't know why we'er in Afghanistan but doesn't really care that much.
In other words, young US servicemen have to die in Afghanistan to protect Trump from political attacks. Well if that doesn't make you want to throw up everything you've ever eaten, then nothing will. It's just as disgusting as the servicemen who died following Obama's idiotic "surge," all so he could avoid being labeled "weak on terror" in the 2008 election. You know, instead of saluting military members at the Super Bowl or upgrading them from coach to business class, perhaps we could honor them by not sending them off to die in stupid, pointless wars. Ugh. Sometimes I think this country deserves to sink.
...
4. Read Mollie Hemingway’s Twitter feed and ask yourself what does she get right and what does she get wrong.
I used to like Mollie Hemingway. Before her Stage 4 Trumpism diagnosis. So I rarely read her Twitter account anymore. But I see that after a full two days of Trump’s Tweeting about fake news, and crooked Democrats and making dubious claims about his own poll numbers, Mollie Hemingway seems to have beaten Trump to a single mention honoring the fallen US servicemen in Afghanistan.
Think about it. In two election cycles and one term, Trump has fucked up both major political parties. They won't be the same.
LLR-lefty and Pro-democrat Chuck: "I used to like Mollie Hemingway. Before her Stage 4 Trumpism diagnosis."
LOLOLOLOLOL
More like her Stage 4 Getting The Entire Story Right All Along!!
That's Mollie's crime in Chuckies eyes: She's helped blow the hoaxes out of the water one story after another.
Remember when LLR-lefty Chuck trashed Devin Nunes and his memo........uh, that would be the memo that was proven to be 100% correct by the Horowitz report.
Do you recall whose Counter-Memo was proven 100% incorrect and full of lies on every single point by the Horowitz Report? Adam Schiff-ty.
Do you recall who LLR-lefty Chuck supported, vociferously and passionately in that dispute? If you said Adam Schiff-ty, give yourself a gold star!
Milwaukie guy: "Think about it. In two election cycles and one term, Trump has fucked up both major political parties."
Trump has certainly exposed the FakeCon Pro-dem "Lifelong republicans" and their grift schemes.
""There is no one starving in Sweden."Buckey's retort: "and not a single Swede is starving in America."
According to Nima Sanandaji, a Swedish economist, "Swedish Americans have a 53 percent higher living standard than Swedes".
@Ken B:
Farmer
Re whether Sanders is far far left.
You didn’t notice that Sanders said he’d nationalize electricity?
It’s no answer to say he would fail. We are talking about his goals.
My objection was not to whether to label Sanders "left," "far left," or "far far left." Frankly, I find that such nomenclature more often obscures than it illuminates. I make the same point when I hear someone labeled "far right." My point was that even if Sanders could make the changes he wants (which he can't), the country would not become Cuba or Venezuela. I don't think it would become Norway or Sweden, either.
One way to measure the size of a state is to look at what percentage of the workforce are public sector employees. The OECD average is around 20%. In Norway, Denmark, and Sweden, it is around 30-35%. The US is about half of that. My point is that people like Sanders, along with most of the New Left for the about the past 50 years, has wanted the country to follow the Scandinavian model: higher taxation, more redistributive policies, and a large welfare state.
"Remember when LLR-lefty Chuck trashed Devin Nunes and his memo........"
Why, yes. Yes I do.
"Do you recall whose Counter-Memo was proven 100% incorrect and full of lies..."
Again, yes I do.
"Do you recall who LLR-lefty Chuck supported, vociferously and passionately in that dispute?"
Why, it's almost as if Chuck doesn't give a crap about the truth.
BTW, has LLR-lefty Chuck ever fessed up about his smears against Devin Nunes and the 100% Correct Nunes Memo?
I don't believe our Self-admitted Smear Merchant has.
I rather think he should, don't you?
Hey, Chuck, you avoided the point of my suggestion.
So what does Mollie get right, and what does she get wrong?
Are you sure you aren't a troll? Did you look in the mirror?
In other words, young US servicemen have to die in Afghanistan to protect Trump from political attacks.
Yes, Trump was keeping them there the past 14 years. Why do you think the NSC and McMaster and Mattis turned on him?
I fear you are one of these "Daddy are we there yet?" types, like Ann Coulter.
He has had 80% of the federal government opposed to him for three years. The other 20% not helping and hoping he will fail.
Chuck was begging for Nunes to be ‘hurt’ just last week!!
"BTW, has LLR-lefty Chuck ever fessed up about his smears against Devin Nunes and the 100% Correct Nunes Memo?"
In fact, was just recently bad mouthing Nunes over some such thing. He only appears to care about who's "side" people are on.
@Farmer, if you were intelligent (I know you aren’t, but bear with me here) you would understand that you cannot have socialism without force and coercion. Slackers like Cookie think socialism means he won’t have to work for a living anymore, but wait until he discovers that it means work even harder for less, so that Bernie can have even more houses. Or else!
The Five are pointing to the moment at the last debate where Klobuchar was the only member of the panel to raise her hand when they were asked who opposes socialism.
@Michael K:
Yes, Trump was keeping them there the past 14 years. Why do you think the NSC and McMaster and Mattis turned on him?
I'm not talking about the ones who died 14 years ago; I'm talking about the ones who died two days ago. And I'm sure you noticed that two sentences later, I made the same critique of Obama.
I fear you are one of these "Daddy are we there yet?" types, like Ann Coulter.
You've made this critique before. Trump has escalated US involvement in Afghanistan since becoming president, so the more apt question is, "Daddy, why did you turn the car around and start driving in the opposite direction of where you said we were going?"
He has had 80% of the federal government opposed to him for three years. The other 20% not helping and hoping he will fail.
And as commander-in-chief, on military matters, Trump has the most latitude to be "the decider." Stop blaming everyone but Trump for his own failures in leadership.
Chuck said...
‘To hurt Devin Nunes in every way that public disclosures can hurt a member of congress.’
J. Farmer said...
I appreciate the attempt to sound clever, Rick, but I'm afraid you've completely misunderstood the point.
Wrong, I understood completely. Government subjugating business does not mean the rule of law as everyone understands. But you prefer to play word games rather than have discussions. I'm the opposite.
@Big Mike:
@Farmer, if you were intelligent (I know you aren’t, but bear with me here) you would understand that you cannot have socialism without force and coercion. Slackers like Cookie think socialism means he won’t have to work for a living anymore, but wait until he discovers that it means work even harder for less, so that Bernie can have even more houses. Or else!
The state works by force and coercion, Mike. Every state on the planet. The term "socialism" has no meaning in your context. Libertarian satirist P.J. O'Rourke makes the point in his 1998 book Eat the Rich. See Chapter 4, "Good Socialism: Sweden," and Chapter 5, "Bad Socialism: Cuba."
@Rick:
Wrong, I understood completely. Government subjugating business does not mean the rule of law as everyone understands. But you prefer to play word games rather than have discussions. I'm the opposite.
And yet you completely ignored the point I made in my reply. So, I'll repeat: You introduced the phrase "Venezuela policies," and I asked you to identify such policies, and you said, "Subjugating business to government." I pointed out that we, and every other country in the world, already do that.Since every country in the world doesn't look like Venezuela, "subjugating business to government" does not work as an explanation for why Venezuela looks like Venezuela. Please try again.
I'm still waiting, Rick.
"Can you imagine the mayor of Madison or Kenosha being a serious candidate for POTUS? "
Seriously, for the Democrats progressive base; if the mayor is binary,multiple pronoun, in transition to any unspecified gender I could see he,she,it getting up to 10% of primary vote.
he's tedious like marvin the martian, now we know that the dems all the way down to Bloomberg, want to reverse any restrictions on immigration, or enforcement of current laws up to dissolving the main bodies, responsible for enforcement, they want to create another class of criminals, going after law abiding citizens,
"Can you imagine the mayor of Madison or Kenosha being a serious candidate for POTUS? "
I can't even imagine the mayor of South Bending being a serious candidate. The guy is a platitude-spouting careerist Obama clone that's exchanged black for gay. Nothing he says sounds sincere. The sooner he is put out to grass, the better.
’The guy is a platitude-spouting careerist Obama clone that's exchanged black for gay.’
Always fun to agree with Mr. Farmer. :)
buttigeg, is an 'answer to a question no one was asking' ht Taranto,
J Farmer, once again we have come into alignment.
If I am right about Bloomberg (i.e., he is going to be the Demmies moneybag in exchange for the POTUS nomination), he is likely to pick Buttafuoco or Klobuchar for "balance", so we may have Mayor Pete with us until November. After that, he'll have to decide whether to run for POTUS in 2024 or continue his career in municipal government. I am choking on this, but Beto was more qualified.
Will Amy's past as Hennepin County Attorney damage her in SC? She was in charge of criminal prosecutions, after all.
"It's absurd to say that wanting the US to look more like Norway or Denmark is the same as wanting it to look like Cuba or the USSR."
But it's also absurd to take the notion that Bernie et al. just "want the U.S. to look more like Norway or Denmark" at face value.
If they did they'd also want to 1. pump a lot of oil, which makes the Norwegian model possible; 2. raise taxes on the poor and the middle class, both income and VAT, in order to pay for social programs and Nordic solidarity; 3. restrict immigration, and get tougher like the Danes, since they know you can't have a welfare state with open borders. For starters.
Trying to turn a complex place like the U.S. into Denmark will require drastic federal coercion.
And someone should ask Bernie whether he prefers the old Soviet or the current American system. Methinks he'll waffle.
@Amadeus 48
A Bloomberg/Klobuchar is the Democrats least crazy ticket.
Can the Dems not be crazy?
Who knows?
’Attorney General William Barr acknowledged for the first time Monday that President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, has been giving the Justice Department information he collected in Ukraine, essentially bringing what was a stealth campaign into official government channels.’
Whoopsie!!
@Amadeus 48:
If I am right about Bloomberg (i.e., he is going to be the Demmies moneybag in exchange for the POTUS nomination), he is likely to pick Buttafuoco or Klobuchar for "balance", so we may have Mayor Pete with us until November.
If it were a Bloomberg/Buttigieg ticket, it would take me about a millisecond to check the box for Trump. The only candidate I'd even entertain voting for over Trump would be Bernie. All the right people hate him, and even though he'd be a disaster on immigration (my primary issue), I think that battle is all but lost. And as Nietzsche said, "that which is falling deserves to be pushed."
’Bloomberg/Klobuchar’
Sorry - I dozed off for a sec just reading that...
it's a poser,
https://twitter.com/JesseKellyDC/status/1226949666597679106
don't be operating heavy machinery when doing that, so the Russians seems to have gone all spectre, against the kh 11 or so it seems,
how about it was just garbage,
https://www.hollywoodintoto.com/reasons-birds-of-prey-flopped/
hmm:
https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/02/sanders-campaign-wants-partial-recanvass-of-some-iowa-precincts/
I am trying not to be cocky, but right now this election for POTUS is over. However, per my point 5 at 3:33, no one knows what is going to happen tomorrow.
It doesn't make any difference at this point that Amy and Pete don't have any appeal to black people. They would be there to bolster the Demmies among suburban women to try to hold a few HR seats gained in 2018 and maybe knock off a weak GOP senator. No black Congressional seats are going to switch in this election unless Trump has great success with black voters. And look at all the GOP retirements from the House. The VP choice will be solely to give suburban women a reason to go to the polls and vote a straight Demmie bullet. It could work, but look at the turnout in the Texas state HR race two weeks ago. The GOP way outperformed.
Anecdotes are not data, but they are evidence. All my Trump supporting friends are out for blood after that impeachment farce. All my gentry liberal friends hope there will be someone on the ballot they can be proud to vote for. Which people do you think are more motivated?
@Sebastian:
Trying to turn a complex place like the U.S. into Denmark will require drastic federal coercion.
I agree that simply copying Danish government programs will not result in Danish social outcomes. It's a circular proposition. Danish social programs work well because they are run by Danes. But on the question of coercion, Social Security and Medicare both require drastic federal coercion, and they are the two most popular things the federal government does.
All my Trump supporting friends are out for blood after that impeachment farce. All my gentry liberal friends hope there will be someone on the ballot they can be proud to vote for. Which people do you think are more motivated?
And the saddest thing of all is that it won't even matter. Republicans versus Democrats is a bit like paper or plastic, Coke or Pepsi, death by hanging or firing squad.
“All my Trump supporting friends are out for blood after that impeachment farce. All my gentry liberal friends hope there will be someone on the ballot they can be proud to vote for. Which people do you think are more motivated?”
The most motivated voter is the one who wants to see a new President in the White House, that includes the gentry liberals.
J. Farmer said... I pointed out that we, and every other country in the world, already do that.
Incorrectly as it happens since you chose an absurd definition only because doing so allowed you to run off on this tangent instead of addressing the issue forthrightly.
I'm still waiting, Rick.
And you will continue to until you can make an intelligent comment instead of pretending you can define the issues out of existence.
Stop blaming everyone but Trump for his own failures in leadership.
No surprise there. I'm sure you have never tried to drive a stubborn mule.
Ok. No more attempts.
@narciso:
how about it was just garbage,
Haha. There was similar navel-gazing over the financial flop that was the new Charlie's Angels movies. The director Elizabeth Banks actually said, “Look, people have to buy tickets to this movie too. This movie has to make money. If this movie doesn’t make money it reinforces a stereotype in Hollywood that men don’t go see women do action movies.”
Yeah, like those earlier successful Charlie's Angels movies, which I guess starred three dudes.
The only candidate I'd even entertain voting for over Trump would be Bernie.
Even in the midst of multiple arguments, you never lose your sense of humor. Admirable.
Inga, that may be true. But the neo-Jacksonians who support Trump want to teach the Demmies a lesson, namely, don't ever do that again. They may fail, but they are going to give it a try.
Do you have friends who support Trump? What do they say?
@Michael K:
No surprise there. I'm sure you have never tried to drive a stubborn mule.
Ok. No more attempts.
So Trump really wants to withdraw the troops from Afghanistan but is being stymied by his own commanders? Do you have a shred of evidence for this other than your own wishful thinking? Did Trump give an order for withdraw only to be told no? What, precisely, is stopping Trump from withdrawing Troops if that is what he wants to do?
The most motivated voter is the one who wants to see a new President in the White House, that includes the gentry liberals.
The most motivated voter is the one that is afraid they will lose what they have. That is why creating fear is always popular.
@Rick:
And you will continue to until you can make an intelligent comment instead of pretending you can define the issues out of existence.
Oh for fuck's sake. Why is it like pulling teeth with you people? "Subjugating business to government," is an amorphous phrase that doesn't mean anything. Once again, you introduced the phrase "Venezuelan policies." All I'm asking you to do is identify the policies you are referring to.
’The most motivated voter is the one who wants to see a new President in the White House...’
Is that why the Iowa caucus turnout was so low for the Dems?
Glass-Steagall subjugated business to government, and the nation might be better off if it still did.
Sneaky Pete wants to pretend he’s a moderate, I think that the primary voters have driven out all of the moderates.
You know, J Farmer, there are a lot of moving pieces on the board.
Just last week, the Senate had their impeachment vote (acquitted). Today, Trump cut his NSC staff back to 100 (it had ballooned up to 200 under Obama. All the people returned to their units were Obama types, I bet). The Ambassador of Assumptions was fired.The admiral who forgot who was commander in chief was relieved as the head of the SEALs last week.
Trump has to win in November. Let's see what he says in his campaign. If 2016 is a guide, he will try to do the things he campaigns on.
"The most motivated voter is the one who wants to see a new President in the White House, that includes the gentry liberals.”
Does whoever said this know a lot of "gentry liberals"?
Sneaky Pete wants to pack the courts. That’s moderate.
I have such fun making fun of old Joe and his pretentious "doctor" frau Jill. So I will be somewhat sad to see him leave the scene. NH will send him further down the abyss.
The most motivated voter is the one that is afraid they will lose what they have. T
2/10/20, 5:14 PM
Which is why, barring a sudden economic downturn, Trump will probably win. According to Gallup, most Americans are happy. They have jobs. Their 401 Ks and stocks are doing well.
They have no reason to vote for change, much less leftist economics. Which is why Dems are praying for a terrorist attack or stock market crash.
It's absolutely laughable. When you hear the Dem candidates talk, you'd think we were all surviving on ramen noodles while dying of cancer in our hovels because nobody can afford to go to the doctor. In the meantime, I paid $2.14 a gallon at Citgo today.
@Amadeus 48:
Trump has to win in November. Let's see what he says in his campaign. If 2016 is a guide, he will try to do the things he campaigns on.
Not sure what good four more years of moderate Republican governance will do for us. But then again, I'm an avowed pessimist.
This is definitely a 'stop Bernie' effort going on. Over the past 48 hours, the news has been all about the fall of Biden and the rise of either Petey or Amy. Not even hearing Bernie's name mentioned.
Sanders will win NH bigly. And the Dem establishment will need to hurriedly get behind one other candidate. Amy? Petey? Bloombergy?
Such choices. I was always told: We get the leaders we deserve.
@exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil:
Which is why, barring a sudden economic downturn, Trump will probably win. According to Gallup, most Americans are happy. They have jobs. Their 401 Ks and stocks are doing well.
The average American does not own any stock or have a 401K plan. Why do you think Trump's populist economic message allowed him to flip voters in places like Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania?
Slow Joe knows that he will not win NH, and he's said as much. He'll hold on for SC. If he loses there, he'll be a dead candidate even if he stays in the race. The butter has slipped off of his noodles.
@Temujin:
Sanders will win NH bigly. And the Dem establishment will need to hurriedly get behind one other candidate. Amy? Petey? Bloombergy?
Completely agree.
Such choices. I was always told: We get the leaders we deserve.
I think P.J. O'Rourke put it a bit more pithily: "Every government is a parliament of whores. The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us."
’The average American does not own any stock or have a 401K plan.’
More than half of American adults own stock.
p.s. "does not own any stock" was a bit of an overstatement on my part. I should've said that the average American owns very little stock.
Farmer, I worked in a factory, and still keep in touch with people who still work there. Everyone that I know is blue collar, and every single one has a 401K, and an IRA. If they can afford it, they're also invested in the stock market. Every fucking one.
"The average American does not own any stock or have a 401K plan."
The key metric isn't "average American"- it is average voter. Also, 401K isn't the only right metric either, it should include pension plans, all of which own stocks and bonds.
The most motivated voter is the one who wants to see a new President in the White House..
I always wondered why incumbents always had such a hard time winning.
Thanks for clearing that up.
It is likely Trump waits until after the election to end the US involvement in Afghanistan, but it isn't certain. He could well announce the end this Summer before the convention. My reasoning here is pretty simple- whatever position Trump takes, the Democrats will take the opposite along with The Bulwark and their two subscribers.
Admiral Inga: "The most motivated voter is the one who wants to see a new President in the White House, that includes the gentry liberals."
LOLOLOLOL
Inga has already forgotten about the disappointing dem turnout in Iowa as well as the warnings dems/reporters are giving about the enthusiasm gap in NH.
Inga has already forgotten because all those stories were published more than 15 minutes ago.
My predictions for tomorrow night:
(1) Sanders 31%
(2) Buttuvwxyz 27%
(3) Warren 16%
(4) Biden 13%
(5) Klobuchar 11%
J. Farmer said...I'm an avowed pessimist.
--
Not if you think Berno is a good option.
J. Farmer said...
In other words, young US servicemen have to die in Afghanistan to protect Trump from political attacks. Well if that doesn't make you want to throw up everything you've ever eaten, then nothing will. It's just as disgusting as the servicemen who died following Obama's idiotic "surge," all so he could avoid being labeled "weak on terror" in the 2008 election. You know, instead of saluting military members at the Super Bowl or upgrading them from coach to business class, perhaps we could honor them by not sending them off to die in stupid, pointless wars. Ugh. Sometimes I think this country deserves to sink.
Farmer, veterans do not need your white knighting garbage. We know and see people like you everyday. You sit on your couch and bitch. And do nothing useful.
Trump is trying to fix things. He is actually doing the work of fixing things. This makes us happy because we know the world is fucked up and it takes messy stuff to fix it.
We support Trump more than any president in history.
You are a joke. You are useless to this discussion and this effort. Go vote for Sanders in your little pouty corner.
Just be glad you were lucky enough to be born in the US where you have space to live in your dream world given to you by people who dealt with the world that actually exists.
J. Farmer, actually, the blue collar workers I know have 401Ks.
And wages for lower income workers have risen too.
I beat everyone but Beasts of England to my own correction, though admittedly we posted pretty much at the same time. So, a few caveats. Yes, if you include indirectly owning stock (e.g. through a mutual fund or pension plan), the figure is around 50%. Only about a third of Americans have a 401(k).
But the value of the stock market is still not a good measure for the overall health of a society, considering the vastly uneven distribution of the value of stocks. So, for example, from March 2016:
"The bull market in stocks officially turns seven today. It's the third longest stock market upswing in U.S. history. But dark clouds hover above this milestone birthday celebration. The S&P 500 has nearly tripled (up 194% to be exact) since its low point on March 9, 2009. The surge reflects America's recovery from the Great Recession."
America's 7-year bull market: Can it last?
This girl today said she recognized me from the Vegetarians Club, but I'd swear I've never met herbivore...
@walter:
J. Farmer said...I'm an avowed pessimist.
--
Not if you think Berno is a good option.
Not if you consider the election akin to asking, which deck chair on the Titanic do you prefer?
@exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil:
J. Farmer, actually, the blue collar workers I know have 401Ks.
"How could Nixon have won, nobody I knew voted for him." (Apocryphal quote but makes the point nonetheless).
And wages for lower income workers have risen too.
I agree. I don't deny that econometrics are good. I just think there is more to a healthy society than the material.
J. Farmer said...
If it were a Bloomberg/Buttigieg ticket, it would take me about a millisecond to check the box for Trump. The only candidate I'd even entertain voting for over Trump would be Bernie. All the right people hate him, and even though he'd be a disaster on immigration (my primary issue), I think that battle is all but lost. And as Nietzsche said, "that which is falling deserves to be pushed."
You use big words to reach really stupid conclusions.
Farmer's biggest fear in life is being forced to admit he is wrong.
He will do anything to avoid that.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/02/10/media-democrats-are-hoping-to-get-behind-klobuchar-but-is-her-surge-real/
’That's why a lot of Iowa stayed home from caucusing this year.’
Really? You talked to a lot of them? 😂
"Yes, if you include indirectly owning stock (e.g. through a mutual fund or pension plan),..."
And why wouldn't you? Do you think people are too stupid to know what a mutual fund is?
doesn't make a lot of sense, if you want to risk sanders or klobuchar or whichever green new deal proponent you prefer,...will they bring back jobs to the us, will they continue tariffs, it's like when the Bolshevik's propose 'bread and justice' and provide famine and pain,
Is this credible?
Gay ... but supports the mullahs. Who throw gays off buildings.
Buchananite... who portrays Sanders as a moderate.
Free marketer ... who doesn’t object to nationalizations and prosecuting business leaders for “harm” rather than for actual crimes
Or is it like a”life long Republican” and Trump voter who now sees the light?
Bernie says Trump is the most dangerous President in the history of the country.
Yancey
“ whatever position Trump takes, the Democrats will take the opposite along with The Bulwark and their two subscribers.”
Here is a nice opportunity for devilry. Arrange a leak indicating the policy will be X. The policy will really be not X. Announce it a week later.
@Achilles:
Farmer, veterans do not need your white knighting garbage. We know and see people like you everyday. You sit on your couch and bitch. And do nothing useful.
Between my immediate and extended family, numerous friends and colleagues, and the work I've done with MacDill Air Force Base, headquarters for USCENTCOM, USSOCOM, COMUSMARCENT, and USSOCCENT, I know lots and lots of current and former members of the military. And you know, I don't recall a single one of them nominating you to be their spokesperson. So, first of all, have a fucking seat.
Ad for what I do, I do what every civilized person in a democracy is supposed to do. I speak loudly and consistently against these wars and try to convince my fellow citizens that they should do the same. And I've been doing it for 20 years, back when you were a warmongering cheerleader for these comments. So, second of all, go fuck yourself.
Trump is trying to fix things. He is actually doing the work of fixing things. This makes us happy because we know the world is fucked up and it takes messy stuff to fix it.
So that's what you signed up for, huh? To "fix" the "fucked up" world? Talk about a messiah complex. How many American soldiers are you willing to sacrifice to "fix" Afghanistan?
You are a joke. You are useless to this discussion and this effort. Go vote for Sanders in your little pouty corner.
Oh yeah, opposing endless wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya. Such a joke. Thank god we listened to serious tough guys like you.
Just be glad you were lucky enough to be born in the US where you have space to live in your dream world given to you by people who dealt with the world that actually exists.
It's an honorable job and a necessary one. No right-thinking person blames the soldiers for the political bullshit they find themselves mired in. But sorry to burst your childish little bubble, my friend, but the notion that we have to thank soldiers for "our freedom" is propagandistic bullshit.
Trump rally in NH.
in a practically uncontested primary, there'll be record turnout, in a surfeit of candidates, it's a very selective audience,
and across the pond,
https://www.steynonline.com/10035/when-shinners-are-winners
meanwhile in the groundhog day of jurisprudence,
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/02/10/judge-sullivan-cancels-flynn-sentencing-hearing-pending-supplemental-doj-litigation/
well it paid him a hefty pay check at hsbc and other places,
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/al-qaeda-spied-mi6-know-deradicalisation-doesnt-work/
just the representative one wants as new York delegate,
https://www.weaselzippers.us/443523-actor-cynthia-nixon-rallying-for-bernie-weve-had-to-do-with-crumbs-why-cant-we-demand-whole-pie/
Let the Shinola flow.
Title: The unnamed visitor
When Meade returns
the path will be clear.
Moderation goes on.
https://dailycaller.com/2020/02/10/dhs-responds-to-nyt-writer-on-immigrant-crime/
J. Farmer said, "...What, precisely, is stopping Trump from withdrawing Troops if that is what he wants to do?"
I would be interested in Farmer's answer to that question. And I don't mean "Nothing." What does Farmer think is Trump's reasoning behind not completely withdrawing troops from the Middle East?
Farmer
We owe our freedom both to soldiers and to those who supported them.
Whom do the survivors of Auschwitz have to thank then, if not the soldiers who captured the camp, and all those who supported those soldiers?
If a fireman drags you out of a burning house you don’t think you owe him anything?
I guess you argument is that my wife's aunt was not saved by the people who created her cancer drug? Because the same logic applies. You just don’t *like* it.
Farmer says there is more to society than wealth. Indeed there is. There is gratitude. There is respect. There is humility. There is noblesse oblige. There is honor. Farmer shits on every one of those things.
@Ken B:
I’ll give you credit. That’s an impressive list of utter falsehoods. Let me correct you one by one:
Gay ... but supports the mullahs. Who throw gays off buildings.
I don’t “support the mullahs.” I don’t support regime change against Iran. That isn’t the same thing.
Buchananite... who portrays Sanders as a moderate.
I’ve never said Sanders was a moderate. I said he wasn’t Stalin or Castro.
Free marketer ... who doesn’t object to nationalizations and prosecuting business leaders for “harm” rather than for actual crimes
I said nothing about the merits of the proposed law only that it wasn’t tantamount to jailing political opponents a la the USSR.
So...what else you got?
Speaking of jailing political opponents:
Judge Sullivan Cancels Flynn Sentencing Hearing Pending Supplemental DOJ Litigation…
Whom do the survivors of Auschwitz have to thank then, if not the soldiers who captured the camp, and all those who supported those soldiers?
They can thank the Red Army. What does Auschwitz have to do with Americans’ freedoms?
Farmer says there is more to society than wealth. Indeed there is. There is gratitude. There is respect. There is humility. There is noblesse oblige. There is honor. Farmer shits on every one of those things.
Ken, your blows would land with much more force if you actually knew the first damn thing about me or what I believe. Which you clearly don’t.
Skipping ahead about three hours. It's still daylight here and I try to do some work outside.
Drago, you're only conceding me the Dems? Trump has turned the Republicans from a party of country clubs, the Chamber of Commerce and generally loyal opposition losers into a party of the workers and farmers. I hear Lincoln was a big advocate for Free Labor.
You just know Bernie calls that “lake House” his Dacha. Right?
Militant party of the workers and farmers....
"I agree. I don't deny that econometrics are good. I just think there is more to a healthy society than the material.”
That’s what Mussolini used to say.
The state works by force and coercion, Mike. Every state on the planet. The term "socialism" has no meaning in your context. Libertarian satirist P.J. O'Rourke makes the point in his 1998 book Eat the Rich. See Chapter 4, "Good Socialism: Sweden," and Chapter 5, "Bad Socialism: Cuba."
@Farmer, let me know when you're ready to abandon the sophistry. Also, lay off the appeals to authority if you're trying to impress me with your fake erudition. As you point out yourself, P.J. O'Rourke is a satirist, FFS. At 73 I can rely on my own observations, as a mathematician I can rely on my own reasoning.
I have an advantage over you and most other commentators. I lived in or around Washington, DC, from 1969 until I retired and moved out to the Shenandoah Valley in 2015. I met with the sort of people who work for the feds and I. Am. Not. Impressed. American corporations are somewhat Darwinian. Fail at your job, and you will be lucky to keep your job, much less ever get promoted. In the federal government, failing upward is your most effective path. Get things into trouble, and then show the appearance of busting your ass 16 hours a day, for weeks at a time, and you will do vastly better at building an empire than the person who kept things out of trouble in the first place.
You want to know something about Sanders? You like to read: go buy We Are as Gods, by Kate Daloz. It's about a commune founded in the Vermont in the 1970s. Bernie Sanders was there for a brief while -- he had to be asked to leave because he couldn't be counted on to do his chores, or do his fair share of the work that needed to be done.
if not for the Molotov pact, they wouldn't have been able to set up camp in eastern Poland, if the camp had been a few hundred miles west, the americans would have liberated it, like dora nordhausen or dachau, it's an accident of geography, not the generosity of the soviets,
“I know lots and lots of current and former members of the military. And you know, I don't recall a single one of them nominating you to be their spokesperson. So, first of all, have a fucking seat.”
Hear hear!
“So that's what you signed up for, huh? To "fix" the "fucked up" world? Talk about a messiah complex. How many American soldiers are you willing to sacrifice to "fix" Afghanistan?”
He wants to be Captain America.
"Private property" as conceived under the liberalistic economic order was a reversal of the true concept of property. This "private property" represented the right of the individual to manage and to speculate with inherited or acquired property as he pleased, without regard for the general interests ... German socialism had to overcome this "private," that is, unrestrained and irresponsible view of property. All property is common property. The owner is bound by the people and the Reich to the responsible management of his goods. His legal position is only justified when he satisfies this responsibility to the community. [90]
Huber, Verfassungsrecht des grossdeutschen Reiches (Hamburg, 1939), p. 361.
John Henry
“Earnest Q: Why would an economic crash be a 'highly (likely)' possibility in a Trump second term?”
“One possible reason is that our economy is cyclically unstable. Then there are the usual candidates: over-capacity and excessive leverage in China, asset price bubbles, etc.”
Talking to a good friend from college earlier, with an Econ undergrad, and a Chicago MBA (where, despite his being very liberal, he took a bunch of Chicago school Econ classes), and our consensus is when, and not if. He is the one who ties my class in our fraternity together, and we had a lot of MBAs our year. So he talks to everyone else, and the consensus is, again, when, not if. He follows economic trends more closely than anyone else I know. He is predicting that 2020 will go about like 2008, with the economy starting to tank in August/September. My guess is early in 2021, with Trump, who understands economics probably better that Obama, McCain, Biden and Palin combined, seeing it coming, and using the tool available to him to push off the downturn until then. Of course, this friend is a LLD(em), while I am a LLR, probably figures into the exact timing.
He too is convinced that the only chance the Democrats have is with Bloomberg. From there, things digressed into my suggestion to buy 30 round standard sized magazines, and AR-15 (and AR-10) lower receivers, as a hedge against a Bloomberg Presidency (he prefers gold, and would vote for Mini Mike in a heartbeat - but then they are both MOT (Jewish)).
The problems with China, in particular, between tariffs and the Wuhan Coronavirus, may push up the downturn. International supply chains are already being affected by both of these factors.
Available on kindle via the portal
John Henry
Auntie Trump, yes plus J Farmer wanted the trains to run on time as well, proving his faschischt tendonitis
sprechen sie deutsch, john henry,
https://dailycaller.com/2020/02/10/prosecutors-nine-years-prison-roger-stone/?utm_medium=push&utm_source=daily_caller&utm_campaign=push
Bernie Supporters in New Hampshire Express Their Disgust For Biden, ‘He Has a Dementia Problem, Inappropriately Touches Women and Girls’ (VIDEO)
’He is predicting that 2020 will go about like 2008, with the economy starting to tank in August/September.’
We’re barely three years into the growth cycle, so there’s little chance of our economy tanking in the summer or fall without a significant external event. Will it reverse in the middle of Trump’s second term? Almost certainly; making 2024 an uphill battle to retain a Republican president.
Farmer, there is still a question out there even if you think it is unworthy.
I am of the opinion that Trump does want to be out of the Middle East. But, he is smart enough to know that there are some valid concerns that his experts have which he has not yet overruled. I have no idea what they are. But Trump seems to be trying to do the right thing by Americans. So I am cutting him a little slack. My question was whether you had an opinion as to the kinds of things he might be dealing with. Or do you just assume that he is deceitful, has another agenda than American well being?
J farmer,
Do you know the average combat death toll by month under pdjt?
Under Obama?
John Henry
@Farmer:
""Trying to turn a complex place like the U.S. into Denmark will require drastic federal coercion."
I agree that simply copying Danish government programs will not result in Danish social outcomes. It's a circular proposition. Danish social programs work well because they are run by Danes. But on the question of coercion, Social Security and Medicare both require drastic federal coercion, and they are the two most popular things the federal government does."
But of course my point was that turning the U.S. into Denmark will require drastically more coercion than we have seen thus far, therefore that the means of becoming Denmark make it impossible to be Denmark, therefore that it is absurd to take at face value the notion that Bernie and his bros just want to the U.S. to look more like Norway or Denmark.
The fact that more coercion may be popular is neither here nor there. The point is that Bernie and his bros favor quite a bit more state coercion than any Dane would tolerate.
And, honest question since I don't think we are far apart here, do we know he likes Denmark, I mean the actually existing Denmark, more than Cuba? Could Bernie tell you as much about actual Danish taxes, programs, and immigration policies the way he could explain the Cuban system?
HOW SAD: General Flynn’s Wife Posts a Heart-Breaking Tweet on How the US Government Turned on Her Husband after His 33 Years of Service
Bernie Sanders was there for a brief while -- he had to be asked to leave because he couldn't be counted on to do his chores, or do his fair share of the work that needed to be done.<
Just read the Peter Schweizer chapter on Bernie in "Profiles in Corruption." Biden has nothing on Bernie except decimal points. Same corruption; just smaller numbers.
"Auntie Trump, yes plus J Farmer wanted the trains to run on time as well, proving his faschischt tendonitis”
“England is nothing but a nation of shopkeepers” - Mussolini
To amend my comment at 7:16: the effects of China1 and USMCA could well extend the growth curve, but it’s too early to tell.
J. Farmer said...
Between my immediate and extended family, numerous friends and colleagues, and the work I've done with MacDill Air Force Base, headquarters for USCENTCOM, USSOCOM, COMUSMARCENT, and USSOCCENT, I know lots and lots of current and former members of the military. And you know, I don't recall a single one of them nominating you to be their spokesperson. So, first of all, have a fucking seat.
And I guarantee that if you went up and started bitching and moaning about all the soldiers that died in Afghanistan because Trump wont pull the troops out NOW they would, if they were honest, just tell you to shut up.
Nobody wants to hear that shit. The only time we hear about troops that died while overseas is when some asshole wants to wave a bloody shirt in an argument. Usually it is democrats who wait until a republican is president but every now and then we get the Iran Mullah fan club to spout some bullshit.
Veterans are well aware that things don't work out as planned and that actual solutions are messy. We are not your bloody shirt. Find another argument ass.
Inga said...
“I know lots and lots of current and former members of the military. And you know, I don't recall a single one of them nominating you to be their spokesperson. So, first of all, have a fucking seat.”
Hear hear!
“So that's what you signed up for, huh? To "fix" the "fucked up" world? Talk about a messiah complex. How many American soldiers are you willing to sacrifice to "fix" Afghanistan?”
He wants to be Captain America.
Hey look Farmer.
You have an ally.
Are you proud to have Inga on your side? Maybe if you keep it up Chuck will join you too.
It would be a trifecta.
@Big Mike:
@Farmer, let me know when you're ready to abandon the sophistry. Also, lay off the appeals to authority if you're trying to impress me with your fake erudition. As you point out yourself, P.J. O'Rourke is a satirist, FFS. At 73 I can rely on my own observations, as a mathematician I can rely on my own reasoning.
If I were trying to impress you with fake erudition, I don't think referencing a former National Lampoon's writer would be my way to go. Also, I don't know you, and you're a non-factor in my life, so what does or does not impress you means fuck all to me.
As for the remainder of your comment, it has nothing to do with anything I've ever argued. Washington, D.C. is prone to cronyism and bureaucratic incompetence. Well, knock me over with a feather. I never thought of that before. Perhaps you can point out where I ever claimed anything otherwise.
Smug will stare incredulously until others surrender.
That's how Smug works.
@Beasts of England:
We’re barely three years into the growth cycle, so there’s little chance of our economy tanking in the summer or fall without a significant external event.
Three years?!
"The current bull market generally is considered to have begun on March 9, 2009, when, based on closing prices, the preceding bear market hit bottom, as measured by the S&P 500 Index (SPX)."
-Stock Market Nears Longest Bull Run in History
Would Mussolini back down if he met British fubol holligans instead of retail cashiers?
@Farmer, perhaps I misunderstood. I thought you were arguing in favor of Bernie Sanders. Just who do you think he would put in charge of figuring out which brands of shampoo would be allowed and which brands of toothpaste would be allowed and who can drill for oil precisely where, if not Washington bureaucrats.
If we ever meet it won't be feather I knock you down with.
@etbass:
So I am cutting him a little slack. My question was whether you had an opinion as to the kinds of things he might be dealing with. Or do you just assume that he is deceitful, has another agenda than American well being?
I generally think it's good form to afford people the most charitable reading possible. I also tend to discount explanations of deceit or hidden agendas when explanations of general incompetence will suffice. I honestly don't care what the motive is. The argument for keeping troops in Afghanistan rises or falls on its merit, regardless of why the person is making the argument. But if you want me to attempt at reading Trump's mind, I would guess that he is insecure about his decision-making in this area and is relying on national security advisors and military brass tell him. But they will always tell him that they need more time/resources rather than admitting that there is no military solution and that the country would be better off cutting its losses. The Pentagon Papers identified a similar dynamic. They identified the main reason for staying in Vietnam as basically an effort to save face. That is the reason we have civilian control of the military. It's Trump's job to make the tough decisions.
@John Henry:
J farmer,
Do you know the average combat death toll by month under pdjt?
Under Obama?
I'll direct you to a comment I made four hours ago: It's just as disgusting as the servicemen who died following Obama's idiotic "surge," all so he could avoid being labeled "weak on terror" in the 2008 election.
It is actually possible to oppose Obama and Trump's Afghanistan policy. And even Bush's. As I have.
@Big Mike:
@Farmer, perhaps I misunderstood. I thought you were arguing in favor of Bernie Sanders.
What I said: "The only candidate I'd even entertain voting for over Trump would be Bernie. All the right people hate him, and even though he'd be a disaster on immigration (my primary issue), I think that battle is all but lost."
Yes, I think the doomsday scenarios that people like you paint about a Sanders presidency is mostly histrionic nonsense. Just like I thought about the doomsday scenarios people painted about a Trump presidency.
If we ever meet it won't be feather I knock you down with.
Ooooo. Tough-talking old codgers really scare me.
@Achilles:
Are you proud to have Inga on your side? Maybe if you keep it up Chuck will join you too.
It would be a trifecta.
You know, 2+2=4 even if Chuck and Inga say it equals 4.
I wasn’t referencing the stock market, Farmer - my comment was re: the macroeconomic cycle.
@Beasts of England:
I wasn’t referencing the stock market, Farmer - my comment was re: the macroeconomic cycle.
“From the 1950s to the present day, U.S. economic cycles have lasted about five and a half years on average. However, there is wide variation in the length of cycles, ranging from just 18 months during the peak-to-peak cycle in 1981-1982, up to the current record-long expansion that began in 2009.”
Economic Cycles
Tough-talking old codgers really scare me.
Yeah, these days anyone can run away from me, given my two metallic knees (and a hip that probably needs replacing in the next couple years), and I'm more than forty pounds over my best fighting weight. And the work with the heavy bag stopped decades ago.
So you have a chance.
So you have a chance.
Good to know.
If you truly believe we’re in the eleventh consecutive year of economic growth then I can’t help you, Farmer. And don’t insult me by linking to Investopedia. I don’t discuss foreign policy because I don’t know a fucking thing about it. You should consider the same for economics.
The interesting thing is that when Democrats conduct their witch hunts and warlock trials, they are reacting to Trump's words and actions. Bloomberg et al abandoned Obamacare once the promissory notes progressed unfulfilled and redistributive credits ran short. Now, they are focused on affordable and available, not as a matter of resolving progressive costs, but rather progressive prices, for not just the 1% top and bottom, but everyone who has been burdened by shared responsibility. And because of the 12 trimester hunts and trials since his birth ("inauguration"), abortion... cancel culture, and longer since conception ("announcement"), people are likely to be skeptical of Democrat integrity, and grant Trump the benefit of the doubt, for Obamacare reform, but also trade reform, ending quid pro Joes, and mitigating progress of quid pro Bos. Activist judges, in Hawaii, in California, overriding democratic choices, didn't help. The integration of Chamber and State doesn't help.
@Farmer, anyway, the huge (YUGE!!!) difference between Trump and Sanders is that the former survived the discipline of the marketplace, the latter has never succeeded at any real job, ever. He has all sorts of ideas, and no notion why they won't work. Go buy that book I pointed out to you (use the Althouse Amazon portal). It's real, and Sanders really did join and get kicked out because he wouldn't do his fair share of the chores. I think lots of people think that business is easy. And it can be, if the corporation is large enough to hide in. But meeting a payroll is tough. Before I gave up and went to work for a big defense contractor I worked for a variety of small, high tech startups. There must be a thousand ways to fail, even with good staff and good ideas and hard work. Sanders doesn't appreciate how hard it is for entrepreneurs to turn their ideas into a successful business, and apparently neither do you.
@Beast of England:
If you truly believe we’re in the eleventh consecutive year of economic growth then I can’t help you, Farmer. And don’t insult me by linking to Investopedia. I don’t discuss foreign policy because I don’t know a fucking thing about it. You should consider the same for economics.
Please identify which year between now and 2009 that we experienced negative growth. And please provide a source for your claim that we are "three years into the growth cycle." I'll wait. Meanwhile, feel free to insult me to your heart's content. It still won't make you right.
Jesus, when someone goes off the reservation the natives get restless.
Farmer
You have a pattern. You don’t just oppose military action against the mullahs. You object to criticism of them. You objected to killing their enforcer too. You oppose their internal opposition it looks to me. That’s enough.
Of course you deny Sanders is an extremist. And he is now for open borders too.
ARM: "Jesus, when someone goes off the reservation the natives get restless."
Joe Lieberman found that out early on.....and then the Left's Cancel Culture got cranked up and is leading to a counter-revolution by the non-insane liberals against your lefties ARM.
Good luck with that.
MITT ROMNEY DID NOT CANCEL HIMSELF.
@Ken B:
You have a pattern. You don’t just oppose military action against the mullahs. You object to criticism of them. You objected to killing their enforcer too. You oppose their internal opposition it looks to me. That’s enough.
Ken, I don't give a shit about criticism of Iran. Criticize them to your heart's content. That and three bucks will get you a gallon of milk. I don't waste my time criticizing Iran because I am not Iranian, do not live in Iran, and have no ability to do anything about it. I can sit and criticize the Chinese and North Korean regimes, too. Nothing will happen inside those regimes as a result. I also have never "opposed" their internal opposition. I have merely pointed out that the idea that with US support the "opposition" will topple the regime and put something new in its place is fantasyland. You can disagree with my conclusions all you want but saying that I "support the mullahs" was just the kind of cheap rhetoric people like you used against opponents of the Iraq War. Back then we were all Saddam apologists.
Of course you deny Sanders is an extremist. And he is now for open borders too.
What I wrote about Sanders 4 hours ago: "even though he'd be a disaster on immigration (my primary issue), I think that battle is all but lost." Thanks for catching up.
’Please identify which year between now and 2009 that we experienced negative growth.’
Do you have the capacity to discern organic growth versus that which was manufactured via monetary policy and/or other external stimuli? Are you aware that those can skew the metrics?
@Beasts of England:
Do you have the capacity to discern organic growth versus that which was manufactured via monetary policy and/or other external stimuli? Are you aware that those can skew the metrics?
Please identify which year between now and 2009 that we experienced negative growth. And please provide a source for your claim that we are "three years into the growth cycle." I'm still waiting.
“Mitt Romney did not cancel himself.”
No, but he earned it.
My answer was in the my comment that you just quoted, Farmer. Please don’t embarrass yourself any further.
narciso said...
sprechen sie deutsch, john henry
Nein, Narciso. Ich habe in der 3. Klasse etwas Deutsch gelernt und kann wegen des Internets so tun, als ob ich Deutsch spreche. Aber ich spreche nicht mehr als ein paar einfache Wörter und Sätze.
Die Passage, die ich zitiert habe, stammt aus einer englischen Ãœbersetzung des Buches.
John Henry
The second ‘my’ was redundant. :)
@Beasts of England:
My answer was in the my comment that you just quoted, Farmer. Please don’t embarrass yourself any further.
You made a bullshit claim that you're now trying to slither out of. Pride is a terrible thing. Please quote a single source. Just one. To backup your claim that we are "three years into the growth cycle." Since I'm operating from such a position of abject economic ignorance, it shouldn't be too hard to find a single source that agrees with your claim. Still waiting...
In addition to making the trains run on time, Mussolini also drained the Pontine Marshes.
Red cross said that a single night in the Marshes before draining carried an 80% chance of catching malaria.
John Henry
I’m trying to help you along, Farmer - you’ll never learn if I simply give you an answer. Here’s a hint: if the economy truly expanded during the eight years of the Obama administration then why did the labor participation rate steadily decline during his entire tenure? And why is it increasing now? Hope that helps you on your journey!!
@Beasts of England:
I’m trying to help you along, Farmer - you’ll never learn if I simply give you an answer.
This is getting pathetic. Are you that pathologically averse to admitting error?
"This month marks the 121st month of the economic expansion arising out of the great financial crisis, making it the longest run on record going back to 1854."
-This is now the longest US economic expansion in history
"The determination that the last expansion began in June 2009 is the most recent decision of the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research."
-US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions, National Bureau of Economic Research
Again...just one source for your claim. Uno. Still waiting...
"Newly revised figures from Trump’s own Department of Labor show that 6.6 million new jobs were created in the first 36 months of Trump’s tenure, compared with 8.1 million in the final 36 months of Obama’s ― a decline of 19% under Trump,"
’This is getting pathetic. Are you that pathologically averse to admitting error?’
Wow. The thing is, I have the academic and professional expertise in economics to conduct my own analyses and reach my own conclusions. I don’t need to do a cursory Google search and make fallacious arguments to authority. Unlike yourself, of course.
Now, let’s hear your rebuttal, re: labor participation rates. Use your own analysis, please.
@Beasts of England:
Wow. The thing is, I have the academic and professional expertise in economics to conduct my own analyses and reach my own conclusions. I don’t need to do a cursory Google search and make fallacious arguments to authority. Unlike yourself, of course.
You're so full of shit your eyes are brown. Please provide a single source for your claim that "we’re barely three years into the growth cycle," or is your argument, "take my word for it?"
I’m not asking you to take my word for it, Farmer - you can think whatever you want. I’m merely offering my independent assessment - nothing more; nothing less. No need to get all emotional about it, dude...
(Any progress on that labor participation rate analysis?)
@Beasts of England:
< I’m merely offering my independent assessment - nothing more; nothing less. No need to get all emotional about it, dude...
Not emotional in the least. Merely pointing out that you're lying. You have offered no such "independent assessment." You made an assertion and have hitherto resolutely refused to back it up. I'm still waiting...
Must make somebody feel very impotent to be right about so many issues for decades, and telling everyone who'll listen using reason and evidence, but not convincing anyone who matters.
I'm the opposite: happy as Gilmore, wrong about everything, but in complete control of what my potUS does.
It is all very easy for me.
I don’t lie, Farmer. And claiming that I’m full of shit is not a rational rejoinder, it’s one of emotion. I’ve provided you with several clues to help you dismantle your static analyses, yet you’ve been unwilling to participate.
I generally appreciate your commentary, and am more than willing to discuss it further in the morning.
ARM would like us to forget that when Obama was in office, the concept of "new jobs" wasn't operative. What got counted was jobs "created OR SAVED", remember?
Whatever happens in New Hampshire tomorrow, it will still amount to more than The Battle of the Pissants.
@Beasts of England:
I don’t lie, Farmer.
Unfortunately, that is exactly what liars say.
And claiming that I’m full of shit is not a rational rejoinder, it’s one of emotion.
Nah, it's a pretty accurate assessment of your so called "analyses," merely expressed in colorful language.
I’ve provided you with several clues to help you dismantle your static analyses, yet you’ve been unwilling to participate.
This is where the bullshit comes in. I made a simple request for you to provide evidence for your claim, and you've refused.
I generally appreciate your commentary, and am more than willing to discuss it further in the morning.
If it's going to be more of your weaseling, don't bother. Just provide the evidence I've requested and spare me your Socratic methods.
I'm the opposite: happy as Gilmore, wrong about everything, but in complete control of what my potUS does.
It is all very easy for me.
To increase knowledge only increases sorrow. (Ecc. 1:18)
"Newly revised figures from Trump’s own Department of Labor show that 6.6 million new jobs were created in the first 36 months of Trump’s tenure, compared with 8.1 million in the final 36 months of Obama’s ― a decline of 19% under Trump,"
****************
Maybe so, but Obama's numbers were doing no more than returning to those of the Bush 43 era. Trump has taken them "above and beyond".
And, as has been pointed out again and again, a reduction in a growth rate is NOT a "decline". Economic growth can never be asymptotic--at least not for long.
’If it's going to be more of your weaseling, don't bother. Just provide the evidence I've requested and spare me your Socratic methods.’
I’m sorry you lack the requisite intellectual acuity to participate in a meaningful exchange of ideas. Perhaps that explains your chronic bitterness...
@Beasts of England:
I’m sorry you lack the requisite intellectual acuity to participate in a meaningful exchange of ideas.
Feel free to insult me all you want. It takes a lot to make me cry. But for posterity let's recap the "meaningful exchange of ideas" you claim you so desperately want:
Me: Please provide a source for your claim that we are "three years into the growth cycle."
You: Do you have the capacity to discern organic growth versus that which was manufactured via monetary policy and/or other external stimuli?
Me: Please provide a source for your claim that we are "three years into the growth cycle."
You: My answer was in the my comment that you just quoted, Farmer. Please don’t embarrass yourself any further.
Me: Please provide a source for your claim that we are "three years into the growth cycle."
You: I’m trying to help you along, Farmer - you’ll never learn if I simply give you an answer.
Me: Again...just one source for your claim. Uno. Still waiting...
You: The thing is, I have the academic and professional expertise in economics to conduct my own analyses and reach my own conclusions.
Me: Please provide a single source for your claim that "we’re barely three years into the growth cycle," or is your argument, "take my word for it?"
You: I’m merely offering my independent assessment - nothing more; nothing less.
Me: You have offered no such "independent assessment." You made an assertion and have hitherto resolutely refused to back it up. I'm still waiting...
You: I’ve provided you with several clues to help you dismantle your static analyses, yet you’ve been unwilling to participate.
Me: I made a simple request for you to provide evidence for your claim, and you've refused.
You: I’m sorry you lack the requisite intellectual acuity to participate in a meaningful exchange of ideas.
J. Farmer said...
@Beasts of England:
Do you have the capacity to discern organic growth versus that which was manufactured via monetary policy and/or other external stimuli? Are you aware that those can skew the metrics?
Please identify which year between now and 2009 that we experienced negative growth. And please provide a source for your claim that we are "three years into the growth cycle." I'm still waiting.
2/10/20, 9:01 PM
I haven't got source on hand, but I've heard it suggested that the US economy underwent a mild recession in 2016, not publicized for presumably obvious reasons. If so, then the curse having been lifted, PDT would seem to have a clear run ahead of him.
I apologize for triggering you, Farmer. One of the downsides of having an extraordinarily high IQ is that I often assume others can follow sequentially, ergo, my responses may be interpreted as condescending. I will, accordingly, adjust significantly downward any future responses.
One quick google result:
https://upfina.com/2016-was-a-recession/
UPFINA
2016 Was A Recession
Jul 10, 2018
... You can always point to previous long cycles in other countries, but the best way to rid yourself of this bias is to recognize the 2015-2016 weakness was a bear market recession.
The terminology is semantics because claiming the only way a bear market occurs is if the S&P 500 falls 20% is very specific. It’s great to have a consistent term with a defined meaning because it can’t be manipulated. However, it is causing investors to lose sight of how weak 2015-2016 was. If you understand the weakness and change your mind from thinking the stock market is on a 2 year run instead of a 9 year run, you can allow yourself to be bullish if the facts such as private domestic fixed investment and capex spending growth support this narrative.
2015-2016 Declines
Source: Ritholtz
The list above gives credence to the argument that this isn’t a 9 year expansion. As you can see, the median stock fell 25% from mid-2015 to early-2016. The Russell 2000 fell 27% and emerging markets fell 40%. Japanese stocks fell 29%, Chinese stocks fell 49%, and oil fell 76%. When you see such declines, it makes you second guess the idea of checking only the S&P 500 to determine if it fell 20% to qualify it as a bear market – that is too simplistic.
The argument that stocks fell into a bear market could suggest that the bull market is still just beginning. Adding in the point that the cycle fell into a mini-recession from 2015-2016 means there might not be risk that the economy falls into another recession in the next few quarters. The 6 charts below gave a complete argument as to why the economy fell into a recession.
Weak Economy
Source: FRED
It was a recession without the label since there weren’t two straight quarters of negative GDP growth. This mini-recession was sharper than a normal mid-cycle slowdown, but shallower than the 2001 recession, which was relatively weak compared with 2008. It’s important to point out that the 2008 recession was a once in a lifetime event in terms of its severity, as we have pinpointed previously.
@Beasts of England:
I apologize for triggering you, Farmer. One of the downsides of having an extraordinarily high IQ is that I often assume others can follow sequentially, ergo, my responses may be interpreted as condescending
Funny. I just want you to backup your claim, and you just want to talk about me. I'm flattered. I hate to burst your bubble, but I'm far too content with my life to be bothered by anonymous internet commenters. And I have to admit some level of admiration for your tenacity in doubling down on bullshit. Cheers.
I've backed his claim, do you want to deal or to fling poo?
Dang it, Farmer - again I apologize. I intended to include in my previous reply that I meant such in the nicest way possible and with all due respect. I hope we can still be best buddies!! :)
Yeah, well you two get a room. Nite. I spend less time here than I used to, but think the point is interesting, so maybe I'll arse myself to check back tomorrow.
@Nichevo:
Thank you for the link. Also from the same source:
Weakest Economy In 4 Years, 31 Jan 2020
Most Weakness Since The Financial Crisis, 6 Jan 2020
@Beasts of England:
Dang it, Farmer - again I apologize. I intended to include in my previous reply that I meant such in the nicest way possible and with all due respect. I hope we can still be best buddies!! :)
Nah. People who refuse to admit that they're just making shit up aren't worth having has friends. But I appreciate the offer.
That really hurt, Farmer. As I mentioned earlier this evening: I’m super sensitive... Quick question, though - and I’m not judging you because I used to love the chemicals back in the day - are you on the stem or the pipe this evening? I know your demographic loves the ice, but I hope you haven’t advanced to the needle - that would be really bad. Stay strong, former best buddy!! :)
One possible reason is that our economy is cyclically unstable
Except that it isn't. Quite a few empirical studies have tried to answer the question of whether or not the probability of a recession is at all affected by how long it's been since the last recession. The empirical evidence says it is not. What seems to be true is that the probability of a recession starting in any given month is approximately constant.
As a student of monetary economics, I'm a bit more optimistic than that. Every US recession since the early 1900's was brought about by a decline in aggregate demand, something which can be avoided pretty easily if the central bank isn't run by idiots. Of course, for most of history the central bank has been run by idiots. But the point to remember is that a shortfall of aggregate demand is always a result of bad monetary policy.
Monetary policy since 2008 has changed for the better, due to the advent of a large trading market in TIPS, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. TIPS bond payments are indexed to the CPI, so they effectively pay a real, rather than a nominal interest rate. The market for non-indexed Treasury debt is still there and is still much larger. So we have both real and nominal interest rates for securities with pretty much the same risk, and by subtracting the real rate from the nominal rate we get a measure of how much inflation the market expects over the life of the corresponding bonds.
Why is this important? Because every economist, including the economists who work at the Fed, believes that the market forecast of inflation is the best forecast you can get. With nearly costless trading, market prices incorporate all of the information available to traders.
So we now have a real-time, unbiased inflation forecast that no serious economist is going to argue with. That constrains the Fed. If the market forecast is, as it is now, that inflation is not going to be accelerating anytime soon, the Fed has no excuse for raising interest rates. Similarly, if the market expects rising inflation, the Fed either has to raise interest rates to counter that, or it has to face the professional embarrassment of explaining just why it knows better than the market does.
The result of all this is that finally, five score and seven years after the Fed was created, we have reasonably good monetary policy. We may not see another recession.
@Beasts of England:
Quick question, though - and I’m not judging you because I used to love the chemicals back in the day - are you on the stem or the pipe this evening? I know your demographic loves the ice, but I hope you haven’t advanced to the needle - that would be really bad. Stay strong, former best buddy!! :)
Shouting insults from behind a fake name and an avatar on the Internet. That is so original. I've never seen that before. Of course, I expected someone of your vast intellect and academic training to be a bit more creative with their petty taunts. Try and do better won't you. I'm rooting for you here. Come on, dig deep.
@Jeff:
The result of all this is that finally, five score and seven years after the Fed was created, we have reasonably good monetary policy. We may not see another recession.
Time will tell, I suppose. You put a lot out there, Jeff. Thanks for the reply.
This time it is different - yet it never is.
Blogger J. Farmer said...
I generally think it's good form to afford people the most charitable reading possible.
2/10/20, 8:01 PM
You may think it's good form but you don't actually do it. As below you intentionally adopted an idiotic interpretation of the comment rather than make any effort to understand the point.
J. Farmer said...
Subjugating business to government.
That's done every minute of every day in this country and has been for well over a century. It's called the rule of law. And it's done in every country in the world.
2/10/20, 2:59 PM
@Rick:
You may think it's good form but you don't actually do it. As below you intentionally adopted an idiotic interpretation of the comment rather than make any effort to understand the point.
Oh get over it already. As I wrote 15 hours before this last comment, "Subjugating business to government," is an amorphous phrase that doesn't mean anything...All I'm asking you to do is identify the policies you are referring to." And you still just want to keep whining about process.
amorphous phrase that doesn't mean anything.
15 hours ago it meant the rule of law, now it doesn't mean anything. Or you just invent whatever you need people's comments to be to justify your disagreement.
The best question is why anyone would ever bother trying to satisfy someone who does that.
Oh get over it already.
Fuck off.
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