October 8, 2019

The polls look pretty rough.

From RCP. Click to enlarge and clarify:



ADDED: 2 different polls, one day apart, and there's a 13 point difference — one shows Biden up by 12 and another has Warren up (by 1). You've got Sanders at 19 or 10. Harris at 6 or 3.

66 comments:

rehajm said...

Polls are for suckers. Probabilistic prediction models are where it’s at. You never have to admit you’re wrong...

Skylark said...

Look at the '+’s for Trump since September.

Skylark said...

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1181293598266073089

Sorry, forgot the link.

tim maguire said...

Politico is a crazy outlier. All the other polls show a Warren lead or are within the margin of error. But at Politico, it’s still last spring.

viator said...

Fake Pollutico polls to drive fake news to drive fake subpoenas for a fake impeachment.

daskol said...

And those are mostly from before Bernie's heart attack, so understates Warren's support perhaps substantially. I've been saying this for over a year: it's faint praise because it's more a reflection of the other candidates, but she really stands out in this field. Despite her fraudulent claims of Native American ancestry advancing her academic career, her shoddy to fraudulent but politically sound medical bankruptcy research and, most recently, her apparently false claim of a sexist boss firing her getting pregnant, she's about the best the Dems can come up with. I suppose we should celebrate that she's never been photographed in blackface. Gotta love us our elites.

Howard said...

We don't see the real good polls.

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

If impeachment is your goal then throwing Biden overboard is a necessity. The Democrat primary isn’t about who’s the best candidate but about who will best serve today’s (literally today’s) narrative. That’s pretty amazing when you think about it.

robother said...

Crazy Bern's numbers are shooting up each day he stays off the trail! Democrat primary voters are yearning for the return of the front porch campaign. (Hey, it worked for McKinley.) Bernie's crazy like a fox--and the heart attack-- angling for the sympathy vote.

Nonapod said...

Yeah, I always here about campaigns having interal polls that they don't make public that are supposedly more accurate somehow. I find that strange. I mean, if we're assuming that the purpose of polls is to actually report opinion rather than shape it. Otherwise, why not use these supposedly more accurate polls?

I'm Full of Soup said...

Trump has my vote no matter what. But he needs to STFU once in a while - like just shut up for a few days and talk only about the economy and getting troops out of Middle East. His reacting to everything on Twitter is killing him among moderates and independents IMO.

Tommy Duncan said...

Harris is at 25 or 6 to 4.

Xmas said...

300 Registered Voters vs 16000 Likely Voters in the polls. IBD is a live poll (so, calls to actual people) while Morning Consult is an online poll.

One of the decent things on fivethirtyeight is their Pollster accuracy ratings and methodology information.

Rory said...

The Politico poll adds up to 97%, the other to 82%.

JAORE said...

Never, ever trust poll results unless you can see the questions asked, the size of the poll, the factors describing the participants (registered voters/likely voters) and the D:I:R splits and the geography of the participants at a minimum.

Other than that, polls are swell...

Ken B said...

Public polls in America are always juiced.

traditionalguy said...

Strangely, after 50+ years of having a telephone and a mailing address, the Polls that tell us what The Americans think and want have never called me or mailed me. That must be one for the record book. Either that or they are just fakedon command polls. Hmmm?

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Trump and the NBA have made the US look weak. Businessmen running the country is not working out for democracy, freedom or the economy. Our oligarchs have sold the country to the highest bidder, even if he lives in a shithole country like Turkey.

stevew said...

Warren need only garner support from the other, non-Biden, candidates to take the lead and win the nomination. Biden's support appears to be quite resilient - though I believe it has peaked.

But, shite, what do I know.

Fernandistein said...

My poll of the comments here shows that most people (±50%) don't like and/or trust polls, so I guess I shouldn't believe that.

Michael K said...

Blogger Howard said...
We don't see the real good polls.


Those are the ones telling Pelosi that impeachment is a loser. Let Schiff be the front man and take the loss when it all collapses.

Amexpat said...

I think there is a reasonable chance that Sanders will do the sensible thing, from a progressive Dem point of view as well as his own health, and drop out in the near future. I think most of his voters will go for Warren and push her past Joe.

Even though Joe is getting visibly older and is not the greatest candidate, I think Trump prefers Warren to Biden. Biden will get all the anti Trump vote and won't alienate with far left politics.

It will be an interesting election. Pretty much everyone that voted for Trump will vote for him again. And those that voted for Hilary will vote for the Dem candidate. So the battle will be for newly registered voters or voters who sat out the last election because they couldn't stomach to vote for either candidate.

Earnest Prole said...

No Hillary?

Gusty Winds said...

What has changed in regards to the accuracy of polling vs the completely inaccurate polls of 2016? We're supposed to forget and believe them now? They are used and manipulated to drive opinion, not measure it.

glenn said...

My uses. Both polls were made up out of whole cloth.

Gusty Winds said...

Dems, Deep State, and Media wouldn't be pushing a hoax impeachment if they thought they could beat Trump. Take California out of the picture, and he won the popular vote in 2016 in the other 49 states. They still have to deal with the Electoral College. Thank God!

Gusty Winds said...

Biden is toast

Carol said...

Pollsters and parties call me all the time esp during the Season, which it isn't yet. I always answer the polls. Stupid people bitch that they're never called then hang up when they are.

Mr. Groovington said...

electionbettingodds.com has Warren at 49.3%, Biden at 17.5%. Sounds about right.

hombre said...

Yesterday they were telling us that Warren was emerging as the leader in the Democrat primary. Today it appears they are telling us that Biden is back on top. Very reliable!

And the country is moving in the wrong direction? What is the right direction? Infanticide? Open borders? Socialism? Elimination of internal combustion engines? Impeaching the president on the basis of anonymous hearsay?

What country is this?

Mark O said...

Polls are useless.

Mr. Groovington said...

Followed by Hillary in third position at 6.8%.

Mr. Groovington said...

Whoa, she’s going up, live, now 6.9%, biggest gainer of the day.

LOL

Jersey Fled said...

I trust polls about as I trust the MSM, i.e. not at all.

Jersey Fled said...

JAORE said:

"Never, ever trust poll results unless you can see the questions asked, the size of the poll, the factors describing the participants (registered voters/likely voters) and the D:I:R splits and the geography of the participants at a minimum."

On national polls, you also need to know the geographic split of the respondents. An independent in NY or CA might be a very different breed than one in ND or AL. This is another way the pollsters can manipulate the top line numbers. And yes, I do believe the numbers are manipulated.

pacwest said...

"His reacting to everything on Twitter is killing him among moderates and independents IMO."

That's my take too from my small sampling of relatives and friends. But then again, if he wasn't so strident on twitter he'd probably be convicted by now. His game to play, and he's proven to be a master at it so far.

Bay Area Guy said...

I don't think the polls are terrible, nor do I think they are great.

I think they are soft data with large margins of error. Sometimes they reveal something interesting and accurate, but often not.

But check out the RCP Betting Odds poll on the likely DNC candidate. Pocahontas is going thru the roof.

Does this actually mean that Biden is cratering among the folks who know? Inquiring minds wanna know.

Infinite Monkeys said...

Harris is at 25 or 6 to 4.

10/8/19, 9:07 AM


Wanting just to stay awake
Wondering how much I can take

Yancey Ward said...

Political polls. The later poll is probably paid for by Biden supporters, and the earlier one is either independent or paid for by Warren supporters, or at least by NeverBiden supporters.

Polling is mostly corrupted these days.

RobinGoodfellow said...

Click to enlarge and clarify:

Click to embiggen and clarify:

FIFY. “Embiggen is a perfectly cromulent word!

RobinGoodfellow said...


Blogger Tommy Duncan said...
Harris is at 25 or 6 to 4.


ISWYDT!

Yancey Ward said...

Nonapod wrote:

"Yeah, I always here about campaigns having interal polls that they don't make public that are supposedly more accurate somehow. I find that strange. I mean, if we're assuming that the purpose of polls is to actually report opinion rather than shape it. Otherwise, why not use these supposedly more accurate polls?"

Political journalism definitely wants to shape opinion- that is why I don't trust most of the public polls until the election is almost literally the next day- right before the election is the only time a pollster is more worried about being right than shaping opinion.

Political campaigns, though, have an interest in allocating time and resources correctly- so their incentives for internal polls are aligned at getting the accurate predictions on the election, but in their dealings with public polls, their incentives are always to shape the outcome. Additionally, you don't want your internal polls released- then your opponent can use the information, too- you will only release it if it is predicting a sure win.

cubanbob said...

The only thing that can be determined from the polls is that Creepy, Stupid, Crooked Joe is still the most electable Democrat in the general election. Sanders has no chance to win the nomination, the others have no traction and Warren is 2020's McGovern ( without his decency).

Darrell said...

Meant to lead public opinion, rather than reflect it.

Left Bank of the Charles said...

The race is in flux. Elizabeth Warren has to solidify and sustain through the October 15 debate and into November.

bagoh20 said...

Not only have I never been polled, but I don't know anybody that ever has been, nor has anyone I know know anyone who has. How can that be?

bagoh20 said...



One poll I saw yesterday show his numbers with independents have surged (16 +) since Pelosi announced impeachment.

vanderleun said...

The polls are on their ass.

hstad said...

AA, you should qualify your comments on, "The polls look pretty rough", this far out from the election as purely 'push polls'. Essentially trying to influence an election and wasting a lot of campaigning cash.

rehajm said...

Meanwhile Fed Chair Powell says we’re in a very strong, very sustainable economy. ‘Best economy of their lifetimes’ according to other officials he’s spoken with. All during a global slowdown AND a tariff war...

Mike Sylwester said...

blagoh20 at 12:45 PM
One poll I saw yesterday show his numbers with independents have surged (16 +) since Pelosi announced impeachment.

Who is his ?

Bruce Hayden said...

Being a total cynic about polling, my question is the extent that polls are steered by the various media outlets to advance the interests of their respective power groups - such as the Clintinistas, Obamaites, crazy socialist Bernie Bros, etc. is the way to look at these polls to look at movement in multiple specific polls through time? I am talking Dem polls, where everyone seems to have horses in the race, versus general election polls, which seem to always tighten up at the end, as the pro-Dem biases are wrung out of them.

Big Mike said...

Not only have I never been polled, but I don't know anybody that ever has been, nor has anyone I know know anyone who has. How can that be?

@bagoh20, someone hates your damned guts.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

A GOP-led Senate intel committee report states the obvious: Russia favored Trump in 2016

Qwinn said...

"Obvious", huh? Cause it's obvious that Putin would prefer the candidate that supports fracking and giving Poland missiles and a hundred other policies that go against Russia's interests? It's obvious Russia would oppose the candidate they know would pass them a quarter of the US's uranium supply for a donation to her foundation?

I guess that's obvious to illiterate morons, like the writers at Vox, and to subliterate morons like ARM who actually believe the blatant projection.

Skylark said...

Nothing stopping you from taking up arms ARM, and heading over the Syria, if you are so passionate about it.

bagoh20 said...

"Who is his ?"

Yea, I never saw that my quote of another comment didn't post, which is one reason moderation sucks.
If you had to pick the correct name that a random news story was about to win $1,000,000, what name would you pick?
________

"A GOP-led Senate intel committee report states the obvious: Russia favored Trump in 2016"

What makes it obvious? I don't even believe it. The intel committee has no record of accuracy. It's a bipartisan committee, and there are few things that both Democrats and Republican agree on, but damaging Trump is one of them.
If it is true, the Russians are idiots, becuase Trump has done them more damage than the last 4 administrations combined.
_______

"@bagoh20, someone hates your damned guts."

Well, I am deplorable.

Drago said...

ARM: "A GOP-led Senate intel committee report states the obvious: Russia favored Trump in 2016"

LOLOLOLOL

The Senate Intel Committee, where Chairman Burr is a NeverTrump Wholly Owned Subsidiary of Mark Warner (Im betting Burr gets a cushy deal at a dem dominated tech firm after he leaves office)

And Warner!! LOL Caught red handed going outside of committee protocols to coordinate with FusionGPS and Deripaska!!

This is getting too easy.

bagoh20 said...

Well, if there is anything that's obvious, it's that Trump haters will believe anything as long as it's anti-Trump. Anything, and for years if you keep saying it. Collusion, man. It's collusion, I tell ya.

Big Mike said...

I suppose we should celebrate that [Warren has] never been photographed in blackface.

@daskol, that we know if, anyway. Does warpaint count?

DavidUW97 said...

Biden has never won the nomination. Warren 1.0 has, as her nom de plume, Hilary Clinton.
Warren 2.0 is less drunk, stumbly and smarter. She wins all the bitter warren 1.0 voters plus Bernie’s soon to be ex-supporters, plus Biden ‘s former electability slaves.

Warren wins nomination in a landslide.

America rejects bitter ex wife #2. Instead of the drunk, ex #2 is the crazy one who you didn’t realize was a pathological liar cuz she’s smarter than 1.0

Milwaukie guy said...

Really late. Great trip to Chicago for my 50th HS Reunion.

A poll of 1500 people is barely more than three people per congressional district. How accurate could they really be?

mikee said...

Trump won re-election back when he tweeted about the Squad, and how their vile anti-American lies "would not be allowed to go unanswered." Ever since that tweet, he's been on the attack, and if there is one thing the Left cannot survive, it is loud, unending, spot-on opposition.

Big Mike said...

Well, I am deplorable.

Most of us who comment here have been told that at one time or another.

Skylark said...

"ARM: "A GOP-led Senate intel committee report states the obvious: Russia favored Trump in 2016"

That’s not at all obvious. The Russians believed like everybody else that Clinton couldn’t lose, which is why they gave her hundreds of millions of dollars, but they can’t resist mischief.

There is no way that Russian Facebook ads had more impact on the election than Manafort being forced to resign due to inteference from the Ukraine. Hillary would have shut down Keystone forever. Hillary would have made fracking all bu disapear, Hillary would have crippled North America as an energy exporter, leaving Vlad to charge what he likes.

It makes zero sense. Why would they have bothered giving her campaign manager millions of dollars in stock in a Gazprom subsidiary if they expected her to lose?

ARM’s stuff is very convincing if you carefully avoid large numbers of facts. His “reality” is rigorously curated by the Democrats who control the MSM.

Big Mike said...

A poll I'd love to see: percent of black people who would (a) vote for Warren over Trump, (b) vote for Trump over Warren, or (c) stay home.