Seems to me Jentleson stopped talking about Wisconsin. He talked about a guy in a diner in rural Michigan. It's just mythology, these flyover people. Once upon a time in a faraway land — Michigan, Wisconsin — what's the difference?
The point is, apparently, Democrats are sick of thinking about that guy, the "guy in a diner in rural" whatever. Once they were safely stowed in a basket — a basket of deplorables — and that worked out so disastrously that the reaction could be to obsess over these imaginary people. Are Democratic Party candidates expected to actually venture into the hinterlands? No, they'll just worry about those people, and then they come to Madison (where I live) or Milwaukee to try to score enough votes to outnumber those diner people. That's what Democrats do to win Wisconsin.
“We have created an electorate full of pundits and strategists, and the result is that we’re puzzling through not who we like but who we imagine someone else will like,” said Senator Brian Schatz, Democrat of Hawaii. “It’s a fool’s errand to imagine who will be appealing to someone else.”Yeah, it's a fool’s errand to imagine... Stop imagining what other people are like inside, and just say what you want. Says the man from Hawaii, which is 4,000 miles away from Wisconsin. I can imagine — no, I can't — what people way out in the middle of the Pacific Ocean think of the opinions of people up there in that part of Wisconsin where at some point it turns into Michigan.
What is that stuff? Watersmeet? Iron Belt? It'll make you crazy if you think about who lives there and what they want.
“There’s something fundamental about the fact that Trump presented himself as a noxious human and still won that is disconcerting and unsettling about America,” said Adam Jentleson.... “But the why, we don’t know. It depends who you talk to.”Who should be President of the Disconcerting and Unsettling States of American?
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121 comments:
It's laughable how obnoxious the guy who calls Trump obnoxious is.
I can only tell you why I voted for Trump. The other choice was worse. Much worse.
I thought a pack of media professionals would manage to not sound completely brain dead when they speak, but let me give you a qiuck hint, my boys. You don't "create" an electorate, it is already there. You choose what slices you appeal to, and what slices you need to control and ignore. Your choice was "ignore white Americans," and now you can barely identify with them. You might be able to rebuild, of course- but after years of demonizing them? They might just kill you, if you leave the safety of your urban media offices. Not today, but maybe tomorrow. You've chosen to flood the zone with illegals to drive down wages and "harvest" their votes, but that only has so much appeal. And if the President decides to get serious about enforcing voting law, that's it. You'll be lucky if your state governments don't hang for treason.
You are the enemies of the people, and Americans will never forget that.
Growing up/living in Hawaii has to be like living in a different country from growing up/living in rust-belt states. Almost unimaginably different.
I don't trust people who live where it doesn't snow (I'm upstate New York born/Ohio raised). Living through winter year after year makes people different from those who live in the land of perpetual summer.
Watersmeet. Home of the Nimrods.
They still don't get it. The Squad seems to be their brain trust.
Ann: Certainly you had many students from rural Wisconsin. They are - for the most part - good people.
I saw Biden in Council Bluffs this week. He's totally finished. All of the energy is with Harris. When Hillary endorses Kamala, it will be over.
The Democratic Party is a party of monsters. Yet, they see monsters behind every bush.
When the Democrats tell you the Earth's sustainable population is 1.5 billion, you know what plans they have for the other 5.5+ billion.
I know exactly what people way out in the "ocean" are saying about people from Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc.
"Fucking Haoles". That's where it starts. And if you have blond hair and blue eyes you might be mistaken for a Californian and if you're a male then "slaps" are called for. Slaps are passed out for various and sundry infractions of the local social code - like looking at or speaking to someone without permission. Generalizing the very first thought that goes through an Hawaiians mind when thing about haoles is dislike.
I love--LOVE--this kind of bullshit from political "strategists." Didn't Trump get about 34% of Obama voters? That's the kind of fact these people can't stand to stare in the face and reckon with. There's zero accountability or honesty. I'm feeling pretty confident that these folks think that everyone in TN is a hick. Forget UP diners.
I mean with that mindset you are looking for someone who can control the deplorables. You need a strong black woman with a prosecutor's mindset who can keep the interior under control.
I think she will be the one. Warren isn't pretty enough.
If I could pick the nominee it would be Bernie. But only because it would be great to have an actual real debate about socialism vs. capitalism. As soon as Kammie gets out of the primaries she will deny being a socialist.
shouldn't that be "invented" not "invited"?
What Sydney said. In spades.
Hawaii is a small Island group in the middle of the Pacific Ocean that literally gets ALL of its supplies of EVERYTHING by shipments from the United States. Without a Military Base purpose, they are of no value and they have never produced anything but pineapples that must be sent to the Philippines for processing. Their traditional slave labor in Pineapple fields was all that made them viable but the had to outlaw slavery before they were admitted as a State, which they refused to do for several years while Alaska was admitted immediately.
But the Hawaiians want to tell the fly over country to bow to their assholery.
The perils of identity politics. The electorate is a pushmi-pullyu and, fortunately for conservatives, the Democrats can only see the side they put the halter on. You can drag it all day long but you can’t stop it from wanting to go the other way.
I'm thinking of the Maya, who once inhabited a network of cities, and then? They all ended up in the countryside. Cities are evanescent, and I am beginning to understand why, only the rural endures.
I seemed to recall that area voted democrat-an outlier in a sea of red.
I looked it up, and the 3 most northern counties in Wisconsin went blue. Indeed an outlier in a sea of red.
So, this guy is saying democrats should ignore their own voters.
Good thing it's an island, then.
White City? Can you imagine the demographics of a diner in White City?
I agree with the premise: be true to yourself.
What he overlooks is that the politician who embodies that quality best and still won is Trump.
Conversely, that's why by necessity their strategy has been to "fool most of the people some of the time" by...
"puzzling through not who we like but who we imagine someone else will like,” said Senator Brian Schatz, Democrat of Hawaii. “It’s a fool’s errand to imagine who will be appealing to someone else."
The Democrats have partially learned, but they are overreacting.
Just vote for who you want. Don't vote for what you imagine others will do; predicting others' actions is too hard even when you project the worst values onto those 'others'.
TML- yes, I think 'identity' was intended.
“It’s a fool’s errand to imagine who will be appealing to someone else.”
Good grief. Does he even know how politcs work? Getting elected to office is just an exercise in trying to appeal to other people, which is of course trying to imagine or infer what other people like, care about, are concerned about, or need.
With regards to 2020, sometimes I swear it's almost seems like the Democrats have given up before they've even started.
"Trump presented himself as a noxious human . . ."
Assumes facts. What really happened is that Hillary tried to hide her noxiousness and failed. Her Noxiousness is a good honorific title for Hillary.
I think the successful Democrat candidate in 2020 is purely a creature of the imagination. He/she/it does not walk the earth. The candidates we have are all sad failures.
If there were only someone around who looked like JFK (but who could keep his pants on), who (while acknowledging his white privilege) could lead us to the broad, sunlit uplands where college is free; where everyone has a job that is like play; where comfortable, roomy, and beautiful houses were provided to everyone by the housing thingee; where medicine is both advanced and free (or better yet, no one ever gets sick); and where all people are equal (but those who are superior get to keep their little extra earned by their superiority).
We want and need that person.
These people keep on talking, unaware that they sound like arrogant tools to anybody who doesn’t think exactly like them.
Not Getting It, Day 9,368,527.
Bunch of ignorant fools.
This guy makes a (fat) living from mystifying the obvious. Here, the mystery arises only because he and his clients are too lazy to drive over to Watersmeet or Presque Isle or Iron Belt and, you know, sit down in the diner and listen.
Not talk. Listen.
That voter in a diner in rural Michigan could probably change your flat tire. Adam Jentleson, not so much.
+1. Bravo!
To say nothing of, god forbid, White City.
The Upper Peninsula of Michigan -- including the map area depicted in this post as well as the northern tip of the Lower Peninsula -- is Michigan's 1st Congressional District.
Until 2011, it was held by a pro-gun, pro-life Democrat (Bart Stupak) who was a former Michigan State Police officer. Stupak held the district for 20 years, through R cycles and D cycles. The district went to Clinton, twice, Bush, twice, Obama once, Romney once, and it went Republican in 2016. (We redistricted it to be just a shade more Republican after 2010, but it is still largely the same district.)
It is precisely the kind of district that Democrats should want to win, because it is possible for them to win it. We had a Democratic state party chairman who ran for that district because he thought he could win it. If the Democrats won districts like that all over the country, they'd be a majority party in Washington.
{#10}
Here's an idea. Talk to the strange creatures. Find out who they are, what they want, what matters to them. They may still seem deplorable to you, but at least you won't be a blabbering know-nothing who hates what they don't understand. In other words, you won't be so noxious yourself.
Self-awareness is not their strength.
It just amazes me that so many bright people can be such idiots about specific subjects when it threatens their world view.
Scott Adams was so right - the great majority of the people in the world are in the grip of confirmation bias, all the time, and facts just don’t matter to them. When you are so emotionally invested in your world view and your place in that world, you will go to *any* length to avoid facts that disturb that comfortable zone for yourself.
It’s quite striking to me — I’m not really wired that way. A few of us still welcome facts that disrupt our world.
@Chuck - interesting info on that district, thanks.
How could Democrats ever win such a disrict, though? They do not identify with, or relate to, the people who live there, in any possible way: religion, 2A, transgender idiocy, abortion on demand, open borders, etc.
They kicked those people to the curb over the last 10-20 years.
If you are 'excited' and 'energized' about a politician you are either a dumb teenager or mentally ill. Politicians are all noxious. You choose the one likely to do the least damage.
Diners in Michigan. I'd rather have the average Michigan diner patron as president than any of the nutty Democrat contenders.
If you open up a comprehensive dictionary to the page that has 'noxious' you see a terrific little woodcut portrait of H. Clinton.
Chuck, you have to stop drinking your breakfast. What the heck does that comment say? If Republicans won districts like that all over the country, they'd be the majority in Washington. The Dems ARE the majority party in Washington.
Send them back!
Oh, I get it. You are saying the Dems should want to win such districts rather than denigrating them. You are right about that, but it's not my problem, nor yours, my LLR friend.
Here's the thing
WHITES DON'T COUNT
Half (or at least Nearly half)
Of whites will vote democratic, on account of because their parents did
And as long as half of Democrats Are So Stupid that they continue to vote democratic
WHITES DON'T COUNT
Want to see the Democrats kowtow to whites?
Start voting as a block
As long as half of whites
Bart Stupak was of course suckered by the Dem leadership into supporting Obamacare by a promise that Obamacare wouldn't be used to bully people with religious objections to abortion. He screwed up. He trusted them.
I think Adam Jentleson was Chief of Staff to the scumbag lying Harry Reid who claimed Romney did not pay any taxes.
Democracy dies with condescension.
“... the great majority of the people in the world are in the grip of confirmation bias, all the time, and facts just don’t matter to them. When you are so emotionally invested in your world view and your place in that world, you will go to *any* length to avoid facts that disturb that comfortable zone for yourself.“
Adding to my comment above, I don’t think enough people understand or appreciate how important this is.
About 90-95% of people fit into this bucket, I would say. Think about what that means. Changing their minds starts with emotion, not logic, for one thing. That’s a big key to Trump and his communication style. I’m just echoing Scott Adams here, it’s not my theory, and at first (2015-16) I was resistant to hearing this because it upset *my* world too much to think people are basically irrational, emotion-based creatures who shut off their brains as needed to manage their internal view of themselves.
But we’ve seen that play out on the national stage, *every* *day*, for the last 3-4 years. It’s undeniable at this point.
Do you remember that meme where you could replace the caption of any New Yorker with "Christ, what an asshole!"? Well, apparently it works with Democratic strategists, too.
The problem is too many of these "diner people" still vote D. They don't understand that their congressman and senator - whatever they say on the Campaign trail - vote with the GUY FROM HAWAII. When does the mythical "moderate" democrat ever moderate Schumer or Pelosi? When do they ever go "Maverick"? They don't. They vote in lockstep.
Hawaii is a bizarre state. They used to elect Japanese-Americans who were smart Vets and mainstream liberals. Now, they elect Jewish haloes and Hazy Mazy Hirano who's so dumb she'd lose an IQ test to Joy Behar.
“We have created an electorate full of pundits and strategists, and the result is that we’re puzzling through not who we like but who we imagine someone else will like,” said Senator Brian Schatz, Democrat of Hawaii.
Once upon a time a person who made it to the US Senate had an instinctive feeling for how the "man in the diner" and the guy who collected your trash or fixed your plumbing or answered a service call when your AC quit in the middle of a heat wave or the woman who poured coffee for that guy in the diner were reacting to events. Looks as though those days are gone.
Speaking of dimbulbs, the Michigan Congressional delegation is full of them. Forget about Tlaib, forget about Amash, what about Fred Upton? The Fredster is stuck with Benton Harbor and Kalamazoo in his district, so he joined the Dems in condemning the Trump (non)racist tweets.
Of course Fred also is the godfather of banning incandescent light bulbs, because GE, Sylvania, and Westinghouse all told him they supported it. Fred never has figured out rent-seeking, and it never occurred to him that if you made 50 cent light bulbs illegal, the light bulb companies would like that fact that consumers now had to buy 5 dollar light bulbs.
I wish Fred's brains were as big as his niece's boobs.
I'm Full of Soup said...
I think Adam Jentleson was Chief of Staff to the scumbag lying Harry Reid who claimed Romney did not pay any taxes.
One of his actual job titles from his resume...
Rapid Offense Director
Senate Democratic Conference Committee (April 2010-Jan. 2011)
Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)
https://www.legistorm.com/person/bio/86935/Adam_Jentleson/hashkey/e92ff83c.html
I suggest The Midwestern states start trading real estate. Wisconsin gets Upper Michigan but losses Milwaukee to Illinois. Michigan gets a draft choice to be named later.
Jeff Brokaw said...
@Chuck - interesting info on that district, thanks.
How could Democrats ever win such a disrict, though? They do not identify with, or relate to, the people who live there, in any possible way: religion, 2A, transgender idiocy, abortion on demand, open borders, etc.
They kicked those people to the curb over the last 10-20 years.
Fyi, here's a map of the 2018 election results:
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/michigan-house-district-1
Indiana gets all of Illinois south of Chicago Land.
You don't need to go to NYT - just go to wikipedia and search michagan 1st district.
“There’s something fundamental about the fact that Trump presented himself as a noxious human and still won that is disconcerting and unsettling about America"
There's something fundamental and disconcerting about prog contempt for their fellow citizens. They despise us. And, Althouse, they despise you, too.
But their contempt is our strength: for now, there may still be enough Americans put off by the noxious prog condescension, the air of moral superiority, the disdain for ordinary American lives. Perhaps even the Althouses of America will find it unsettling enough to vote for the uncouth Orange Man.
“It’s a fool’s errand to imagine who will be appealing to someone else.”
It's foolish to actually try to find out what's important to the voters you'll represent (if you win)?
Wow.
Democratic politicians know nothing about the lives of poor Blacks in the inner cities either, but know they can depend on their votes anyway.
rcocean said...
You don't need to go to NYT - just go to wikipedia and search michagan 1st district.
I did go there first, but it didn't have a county-by-county map breakdown of the red v blue vote.
Amadeus 48 said...
Chuck, you have to stop drinking your breakfast. What the heck does that comment say? If Republicans won districts like that all over the country, they'd be the majority in Washington. The Dems ARE the majority party in Washington.
Send them back!
Oh, I get it. You are saying the Dems should want to win such districts rather than denigrating them. You are right about that, but it's not my problem, nor yours, my LLR friend.
Glad you finally got it in the end. Good for you.
I didn't claim that it was my problem, or yours. I certainly want a Republican to win the MI-1st.
But I also -- and perhaps even moreso -- want Republicans to win the Detroit suburban districts of the MI-8th, 10th and 11th, and the western and midstate districts of the MI-6th and 7th. We lost the 8th and 11th in 2018. Along with losing the governorship, the state AG's office and the Secretary of State's office in the same election. We could lose the MI-6th and 7th as well in 2020.
{#11}
About 90-95% of people fit into this bucket, I would say.
I would say 100% are. We're all susceptible to confirmation bias and all experience it regularly. It's true that their are some people who are able to recognize their own confirmation bias some of the time. And if such people recognize it, they may rethink or reevaluate and question their feelings and conclusions. But this is an active process, it doesn't happen naturally. You have to want to be objective and fair minded. You have to be willing to question your own assumptions, be willing to be receptive to information that might disagree with your idea of the world.
What they need is a Lawrence of Wisconsin.
Just like what the Republicans needed, badly, is a Lawrence of the Chicanos.
I hear people talk about Michiganders on occasion, but nary a whisper about Michigeese.
Heartless Aztec: I know exactly what people way out in the "ocean" are saying about people from Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc. "Fucking Haoles".
That wouldn't matter as much as it does if "people from Wisconsin and Minnesota" could be made to understand that. Then there'd be some chance that we could all just merrily "Fuck you, too, [ethnic/racial slur]" each other, and get on with the business of having a tolerably functional civic life. Or at least be spared the ruinous ideologies/policies dictated by idiot prog crypto-bwanaism.
But gormless, groveling Upper Midwestern Nice White Liberalism is chum thrown into shark-infested waters.
I hear people talk about Michiganders on occasion, but nary a whisper about Michigeese.
That's pretty funny. According to Wikipedia's list of US State demonyms, a Michigan resident is a "Michiganian". But they have Michiganders and Michigeese listed in the "Official, unofficial, or informal alternatives" field.
@Nonapod - yes, all those qualities you list at the latter part, that is me, and surely there are others like me. Several comment here regularly.
I’ve gone through at least three major “holy crap!” world view changes just in the last 20 years, all driven by events, with my eyes-wide-open approach to the world around me.
That’s why I said 90-95% — I’m giving credit to 5-10% of the world for not letting their emotions run their lives . I really hope it’s actually that high. At one time I (foolishly) assumed *everyone* was like me.
"...it's a fool's errant to imagine..."
Yes, so why not stop trying to imagine and actually meet some of these fellow Americans and find out what their opinions and concerns are? Well, maybe you'd find out that they are a lot smarter and more knowledgeable than you think, and that you aren't really that special. Can't have that.
alanc709: It's laughable how obnoxious the guy who calls Trump obnoxious is.
Yes, but I hope they keep the joke rolling. Anything that interferes with an enemy's clear-headed view of reality is an advantage to the other side. Projection is good, but total batshit delusional psychotic breaks are even better.
Reid was mobbed up for forty years, he was like powers boothe in sin city, taking money from everyone from Joe agosto to Jack Abramoff, Tony spilotro tried to blow him up like deniro in casino, because he double crossed him
Original Mike said: Watersmeet. Home of the Nimrods.
Ishpeming. Home of the Hematites. More bars per capita than anyone from Hawaii can begin to fathom.
Bruce Crossing. I remember it well. Back in the day, any trip to the Porcupine Mountains (hiking, downhill and cross country skiing) involved a stop for a meal at Bundy's Restautrant (which is probably not there anymore). The waitress once delivered a bowl of chili to the table with her thumb deep in it. Chili with thumb.
Where is the guy who sells foam pillows located? Around this area?
Is that the same place re "incredible" re DJT and Walker re 13,000 new jobs re not free re the taxpayers?
I've always preferred the way the Brits use "incredible." Maybe the same for DJT, too.
Or, is this area near where those bikes (either type) come from?
But back to the point, re diners: are those so-called butter burgers a WI-based thing?
Anywho, it's not like coastal elites don't know anything re what we fly over. Just may not got all the details quite right.
Oh...and cows...lots of those. Fer cheese. Am I right?
And, the most drunks in the country v other states.
See, we know about ya!
And, the tools that are called "Milwaukee," those must come from y'all.
And, y'all talk funny, but not as funny as folks from Minnesota.
So STFU re bein' butt hurt, re we fly over you. IMHO.
Wisconsin gets Upper Michigan but losses Milwaukee to Illinois.
What about Kenosha and Racine?
Chuck--From your lips to God's ear.
The GOP ruled the roost in MI for 10 years, but the combination of the Flint water fiasco and the right-to-work statute plus the Trump in 2016 win really woke up the Dems in 2018. The Trump win in 2016 shows the Dems exactly where they can spend all their effort: PA, MI, WI.
Illinois is on a different track (the GOP has joined the Choir Eternal, it has fallen off the perch, it is dead, dead, dead), Trump is not popular in IL (an understatement), and in 2018 it resulted in the GOP losing all their marginal congressional seats here and a few that weren't marginal. I can't imagine things are much different in the Detroit suburbs than they are here.
In any case, the GOP has its work cut out to stay in the game in 2020. Right now, the Dems' addiction to crazy is helping, but no one should take anything for granted. Also, for many people, a Trump win is a good reason to vote Dem for Congress.
Poor people vote in Chicago. That's what Machines are for. I once saw a water department guy working a precinct election day with a voters reg list and a welfare recipient list of some kind. He had lots of ten-spots.
Actually hes more popular than pritzker, but itd mostly zombie town, in flint they threw out the prosecutions of officials and started over, they hired a contractor that dug up the wrong pipes,
Dems are just SO GOOD at dissing the voters they don't know and don't want to know, and think they can get away with that.
"Who should be President of the Disconcerting and Unsettling States of American?"
TRUMP.
Wasnt it the Obama EPA that let this happen, garbage in garbage out, miss tlaib is another fraudster according to her own father.
"Put your money on someone who energizes and excites you rather than someone who appeals to a voter in a diner in rural Michigan who you invited in your head."
Ummm, isn't that what the Democrats did in 2016 by nominating Hillary? She then proceeded to ignore places like Michigan and ended up losing because the folks in the diners in Michigan, and PA and others, voted for Trump.
Re: contempt for certain voters or section of the electorate.) I don't listen to podcasts, but the excerpt here was interesting.
http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/russ-roberts-and-arthur-brooks/
The problem in IL is that the GOP has completely lost its suburban strongholds. The state used to be competitive. The GOP elected governors for 24 straight years. In 1994, the GOP held majorities in both houses of the legislature and every state constitutional office. It has been downhill ever since.
In IL, the GOP has failed to differentiate itself from the Dems in any positive way. The GOP has never been for good government, low taxes, or efficiency. It has been a somewhat more hypocritical version of the Democrats. I used to joke that the GOP lacked incentives--if even if they lost, their officeholders got 40% of the bribes. When the GOP did try to make a difference, it was over social issues like (you guessed it) abortion. That is deadly to the female vote on the North Shore. But even the male contingent is full of don't-rock-the-boat corporate men. So, for the last twenty years, the Illinois GOP has quietly died from lack of interest--unloved, unlamented, dismissed out of hand.
“It’s a fool’s errand to imagine who will be appealing to someone else.”
As opposed to thinking you're On The Right Side Of History.
'Cause what's a little (or actually a lot) of moral pomposity among comrades.
Amadeus 48 said...
Chuck--From your lips to God's ear.
The GOP ruled the roost in MI for 10 years, but the combination of the Flint water fiasco and the right-to-work statute plus the Trump in 2016 win really woke up the Dems in 2018. The Trump win in 2016 shows the Dems exactly where they can spend all their effort: PA, MI, WI.
Illinois is on a different track (the GOP has joined the Choir Eternal, it has fallen off the perch, it is dead, dead, dead), Trump is not popular in IL (an understatement), and in 2018 it resulted in the GOP losing all their marginal congressional seats here and a few that weren't marginal. I can't imagine things are much different in the Detroit suburbs than they are here.
In any case, the GOP has its work cut out to stay in the game in 2020. Right now, the Dems' addiction to crazy is helping, but no one should take anything for granted. Also, for many people, a Trump win is a good reason to vote Dem for Congress.
I am under an agreement that prevents me from replying more fully to you.
What I can say to you is that I am constantly wondering whether Democrats really want to win 2020, particularly in the race for the White House. And yes, it does seem that the Democrats' race for the presidential primaries is taking them farther away from middle America, which is the point I started out with on this very page.
What I can also say to you is look at the Republican nominees who lost so badly in Michigan's 2018 election. Lena Epstein; she lost a district that is approximately R+5. Look her up. Look up Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Schuette; look at how his primary campaign was run, and won, and then look at how he was beaten conclusively in the general. Etc., etc., etc.
It does seem to me that Democrats may be running a primary in which their nominee for President won't be able to win a general. But here in Michigan, I saw Republican nominees, flush with a feeling of victory in 2016, who could not win their statewide and congressional seats (in addition to some historically bad results for Republicans in Oakland County), after having done the same kind of appeal to a narrow base.
{#12}
This Democrat strategery genius thinks that the key to winning is to backing anti-white,anti-Semitic, anti-American, socialist and pro terrorist candidates is a winning position.
Yet abortion is why there is more illegal and foreign labor, deindustrialization is why there is more demand for welfare, which breeds drug dependency,
Negative partisanship voting patterns changes dependent on the party that holds the Presidency. The opposite right or left leaning indies come out based on the Presidency. Pure Indies switch their vote based on it. So if a (D) sits in the White House, Wisconsin Rs do great on a off-year election. But the opposite was true for 2018. Same pattern for Michigan. It depends on the number of right or left leaning Indies and pure Indies in any given State. Swing states have enough of these independent "swingers" & partisans are close in numbers.
The Republicans lost a lot of elections worrying about how to attract the marginal voter. They'd constantly shift their positions to favor "reasonable" gun restrictions, deficit spending, greater power in the federal government, and of course, "no litmus tests" for Federal judges.
What they ended up with was the party of Democrat-Lite, as the Left took the opportunity to keep moving left in order to differentiate themselves.
It's no surprise then, we got Trump as President.
As a businessperson, he realized you only have to be better than your competition in order for people to buy your product.
The Dems only election strategy since Jimmy Carter is to attack the Republican as too white, too racist and too out-of-touch.
It's only after they win that something like "a mandate for healthcare reform" gets used to explain the win, and the legislative agenda which must then follow.
And follow, the Republicans did out of fear of "not hearing" the voters message.
Trump is already winning 2020. He's painting whoever the nominee is as a Socialist, anti-Israel, threat to peace and prosperity.
I hope the rest of the Republicans are taking notes.
If not, the party ends with him.
What I can say to you is that I am constantly wondering whether Democrats really want to win 2020, particularly in the race for the White House.
They do. They really do.
It's just that they've become so dependent on pushing the race button over and over until they win that they cannot understand why it's no longer working for them.
They are the victims of having a fantastically-successful strategy for so long that they don't know what to do when the magic button is no longer connected to the electorate.
Very genuine:
https://mobile.twitter.com/pspoole/status/1152012616341999616
Kevin at 11:32 wrapped it up in a nice neat package. Right on, sir.
"I saw Republican nominees, flush with a feeling of victory in 2016, who could not win their statewide and congressional seats"
So the negative partisanship model explains that outcome. Dependent on demographics of districts the numbers may exist to swing things due to negative partisanship. So, in 2016 you get a R win but in 2018 you get a D win. Of course quality of candidate matters, but more so in a swingy-district. & it can be hard to overcome the negative partisanship reacting to the Presidential level. Races getting less district dependent more national.
AOC & Omar will be be run in attack ads in the Presidential on the district level in MI and WI. But national negative partisanship patterns are going to push in the opposite direction with left-leaning and pure Indies. Will AOC outweigh the Presidential negative partisanship model? If the state has enough left-leaning or pure indies, you might get a 2018 outcome.
"Illinois is on a different track"
Burbs are trending D. R burbs are losing margins. So a +10 R burb is going to +5 R. In contrast rural districts trending R. Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky will go R no matter what in this new alignment. But Michigan & Wisconsin suburbs trending towards the D fits the new alignment model.
The suburb-rural realignment has been slowly happening but Trump turbo-charged it.
Per Chuck, I checked out Lena Epstein's Michigan race and why she lost in a Republican area. Her area was a suburb and the suburbs, including in her area have been moving toward the Dems and in her election this trend was confirmed and she lost.
So the question then is: how does the Commie Squad poll in the suburbs? Haven't seen anything on it.
"...Michigan, Wisconsin — what's the difference?"
Reminds me of the old line about the Park Avenue matron talking to someone at a party, who says he is from Iowa, and responding, "Here, we pronounce that" O-Hi-O"
"...Michigan, Wisconsin — what's the difference?"
I thought Althouse's son's friend won the race to head the D party in Wisconsin.
I was once visiting Vancouver. Upon hearing that I was from Indiana, one of my hosts asked if I knew the so-and-so family (who, it turns out, lived in Montana).
"So the question then is: how does the Commie Squad poll in the suburbs? Haven't seen anything on it."
That will be the R play in the 2020 election. The other question to ask in polls is: How does the other drama play in the burbs? The republican argument with the women's soccer team & the rest of it.
I like watching Election Night 2016 reruns because the event that happened was so big and incalculable and it's interesting to see how bright informed people responded. They understood at once that it was driven by a wish to better the economic condition of the people whose jobs went to Mexico and China. But as the night wore on they begin to forget what they first saw - it's very interesting to watch - and they begin to regard it as an irrational, emotional response to the Coastie elites and their snobbish disdain for the heartland. In other words people wanted jobs and Trump promised to get them and that's why and he won and these reporters see it; but then later in the evening these reporters, for whatever reason, all begin to say that Trump supporters just wanted someone to hate. And it's this second interpretation that's been on the news ever since. Probably it plays in the Peoria suburbs.
"So the question then is: how does the Commie Squad poll in the suburbs? Haven't seen anything on it."
The people directing strategy in both parties already know, and it's not good for team blue.
That's why Pelosi was trying to distance the Party from them.
And why Trump took that opportunity to force the Party and the Squad back together even more tightly.
Trump's running against the Squad in 2020, which leaves the nominee the two bad choices of defending them or ripping the Democratic Party apart during the election.
In other words people wanted jobs and Trump promised to get them and that's why and he won and these reporters see it; but then later in the evening these reporters, for whatever reason, all begin to say that Trump supporters just wanted someone to hate.
The first response said the media was out of touch with the American people.
The second said the American people weren't worth getting to know.
As you point out, once that option became available most of the media elites immediately took it.
"I thought Althouse's son's friend won the race to head the D party in Wisconsin."
Somehow the NYT didn't figure out how to talk to him. Went to a Senator from Hawaii and some gentle son who's all about suing Trump. How obtuse is that?
Well done, ma'am!
How obtuse is that?
Extremely obtuse!
White City is actually quite diverse, we have Yooper’s and then there are the others. I will admit there’s no place whiter than the White City nude beach before Memorial Day.
I think Trump voters correctly see the elites, the city IT and gigworkers and the suburbanites as they are now but the elites, IT gigworkers and suburbanites have pictures of the "rural" South, of farmers and of workers which are totally out-of-date. Coasties have pictures from the Thirties, pictures from 80 years ago, embedded as "explanations." They don't see farming and ranching as computerized even on family farms, they don't realize how many factories are gone so that "workers" have no jobs; they don't realize that the people in the South who used to live in nasty unpainted shacks now live in air-conditioned ranch houses with large neat lawns with a small foreign car and a Ford F-150 in the driveway. Moreover, Coasties don't clearly picture that the internet is everywhere, (even when they work for FAANG); and they don't picture the information flow choke points. These choke points operate so that fake pictures by AOC on the southern border are known as fake in Iron Belt in a few hours and never known as such by majorities in the DC suburbs. Yet withal those suburbanites are utterly and complacently convinced (as they support the anti-Semite) that they are well-informed and tolerant and Trump voters are an emotion-driven rabble.
There’s something fundamental about the fact that Trump presented himself as a noxious human and still won that is disconcerting and unsettling about America
You're just jealous cause your noxious human didn't win.
This disconnect does not only relate to 'flyover' states but to the parts of coastal states not represented by the urban centers. And, unlike residents of the 'flyover' states, their voices are never heard in a Presidential election.
they'd be a majority party in Washington.
They are, at least in the house.
Another fact, and I’m not sure why Chuck neglected to mention this - Bart Stupak was one of the last votes to approve Obamacare. He promptly lost in the next election. That wasn’t by accident.
Amadeus 48: "Bart Stupak was of course suckered by the Dem leadership into supporting Obamacare by a promise that Obamacare wouldn't be used to bully people with religious objections to abortion. He screwed up. He trusted them."
Nonsense.
Stupak knew full well that obambis little promise was a nothingburger and would have no impact on the left attacking pro-life organizations.
Stupak knew it.
Right from the start.
But he signed off on this fake fig leaf which destroyed his supposedly most closely held beliefs.
At the moment of truth he sided with the far left. A result we also see within the supposedly LLR/NeverTrumpers squad who have given up all pretense and gone full left to satisfy their lefty paymasters.
I Callahan said...
they'd be a majority party in Washington.
They are, at least in the house.
Another fact, and I’m not sure why Chuck neglected to mention this - Bart Stupak was one of the last votes to approve Obamacare. He promptly lost in the next election. That wasn’t by accident.
You're wrong about Bart Stupak. He was not defeated in the next election. He did not run in the next election. He retired after ten consecutive House terms. He was not regarded as particularly vulnerable (although, as I have already made clear, the MI-1st was a notable swing district at the time), and then-President Obama openly implored Stupak to run again. But he had been considering retirement for all of his last term.
Sorry; that was {#13}.
'Diner People', in shiny red MAGA hats.
you can just smell 'em. Ewwww !
The republican argument with the women's soccer team & the rest of it.
You mean the women's soccer team argument with America ? And Kaepernicks's ?
“There’s something fundamental about the fact that Trump presented himself as a noxious human and still won that is disconcerting and unsettling about America,” said Adam Jentleson.... “But the why, we don’t know. It depends who you talk to.”
LOL and these guys consider themselves the experts.
The Porcupine Mountains are gorgeous in autumn. Then road trip to Copper Harbor.
doctrev said:
"You don't "create" an electorate, it is already there."
Or, to paraphrase somebody from a past administration who had a lot of good sense: "As you know, you go to the polls with the electorate you have, not the electorate you might want or wish to have at a later time."
“It’s a fool’s errand to imagine who will be appealing to someone else.”
Yet you think you and/or other Progressives know us well enough to make our decisions, and divert our resources to solve highly individual-specific problems FOR us from the top down, to the point that you even limit our ability to work around you when you inevitably get it wrong.
THAT’S the real fool’s errand you keep running, Mr. Director.
"The Porcupine Mountains are gorgeous in autumn. Then road trip to Copper Harbor."
With a side trip to the top of Brockway Mountain along the way to Copper Harbor.
King Kamehameha I, a tyrant who waged aggressive war against his neighbors is Hawaii’s representative in Statuary Hall.
Speaking of US Senators from Hawaii here is an interesting bit of information on one of the first two - Hiram Fong, Republican:
"Hiram Leong Fong ... was an American businessman and politician from Hawaii. The son of illiterate Cantonese immigrants, he overcame poverty to become the first Asian-American United States Senator, serving from 1959 to 1977.[2] In 1964, Fong became the first Asian-American to run for his party's nomination for President of the United States. To date, he is the only Republican to ever hold a Senate seat from Hawaii and was the only Asian-American to seek the presidential nomination of the Republican Party until Bobby Jindal in the 2016 primaries."
Kamehameha was one of three regional kings on the Island of Hawaii. He "united" all of the the Hawaiian islands by having his troops conquer the other two, then Maui, and then Oahu. At that point Kauai acknowledged him as its king too. It helped that his troops had European weaponry, while the others didn't.
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