From "'The Wise Are Running for Their Lives': Venezuela Simmers With Violence as Putin Sends in Russian Troop" by Annika Hernroth-Rothstein. She's quoting her bodyguard. Fantastic photograph at the link. Hernroth-Rothstein continues:
Two months have passed since I got here and in that time, the possibility of an American intervention in Venezuela has been on everyone’s mind. President Donald Trump has generously sprinkled his speeches with heavy innuendo to that effect, including boasts about being ready to take on the Russians, but shows little sign of actually following through.
The Venezuelan people themselves are divided on the issue; some fear that American help to overthrow Maduro will end up becoming a permanent American presence in the country and a co-dependent relationship that doesn’t come close to the ideals they’ve fought for over the past two decades....
For the U.S. to intervene now would mean a conflict between Trump and Putin, something Maduro surely is counting on Trump wanting to avoid....
Posts
75 comments:
You might read Richard Fernandez' column on this.
Russia is acquiring an empire of chaos. According to the New York Times, "Sudan’s president, Omar Hassan al-Bashir, brought in Russian mercenaries in January to help shore up his rule against nationwide protests. And last spring, five sub-Saharan African countries — Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso and Mauritania — appealed to Moscow to help their overtaxed militaries and security services combat the Islamic State and Al Qaeda." It's part of the Kremlin's burgeoning network of failing states around the world.
I'm am vehemently opposed to intervention in Venezuela.
H.L. Mencken was absolutely right when he said, "Democracy is the belief that the people should decide what they want, and that they deserve to get it good and hard."
Venezuelans have no one to blame but themselves for this. Many (maybe even a majority) of those talking about their current hardships supported the Chavez and even the Maduro regimes.
They deserve what they get. I'm fresh outta caring...
Correction. "Vehemently opposed to military intervention in Venezuela."
The U.S. should provide financial and logistic support to Brazil and Columbia, and have them overthrow Maduro for us.
I would assume that Russian soldiers in the streets is part and parcel of the ideas that Venezuelans have been fighting for for two decades. You demanded communism, you got it! Enjoy!
Venezuela is an important story of how Leftists can take a once-thriving country and wreck it with socialist policies and corruption.
What to do about it, is difficult. You don't want to intervene and make it worse.
You have to give public support to opposition leader Juan Guaido, and ask him privately what would help. And, you have to call out Chavez and Maduro for being socialist fuckheads.
Instead, Democrats will wear pussy hats, sniff people's hair and issue subpoenas about a 2-year old election, they lost.
Voting is more complicated in dictatorships.
What are the Russians eating?
“President Donald Trump has generously sprinkled his speeches with heavy innuendo to that effect...”
He did?
Was it code? Dog whistles? Braille?
I guess people see what they want to see... or what the “press” feeds them.
US military intervention in Venezuela would be a big mistake. I'm still waiting for us to disengage from the wasteful and ill-conceived adventures in the Middle East. If the Venezuelan people demand change and are willing to do what is necessary to implement it, then we should encourage them, send food and medical supplies if possible and pray for them.
I don't know why, but I see Putin gaining popularity in some circles. There's no end to about-face-ism, when your public status is menaced by deplorables risking to be shown more intelligent than you.
It's like with transgenderism: better to have some prepubescent kids surgically ruined forever, than admitting lousy conservatives were right. It's a matter of "moral" pride or perhaps, to be honest, just pride.
She is overstating the support for American intervention in Venezuela. American intervention is never welcome.
The American Boogeyman is how Chavez gained control in the first place.
There is zero chance Trump sends troops to Venezuela, John Bolton notwithstanding.
I think Bay Area Guy has it right. I think Trump needs to provide vocal support to Guiado and call out Maduro and Russians for the harm they are inflicting on Venezuelans. But Venezuela needs to solve its own problem. They wanted this. We need to remind Americans that many on the Left, including Barack and Hillary, backed Chavez's socialist changes and that they want to enact the same policies here.
There is more likely to be a better story narrative if the bodyguard network can be debriefed.
Foreign reporters are typically quasi-Nomenklatura in countries classed third world or falling into it
Venezuelans are cowards. They deserve what they are getting and more. Trump will put a lot of pressure on Putin to get out but he doesn’t really care about Maduro.
To rhhardin and others
A while ago, many avatars stopped showing. This happened to me too.
I found that the problem is in Blogger. I went to my Blogger profile page and reloaded my profile photo. Since then, my avatar has shown.
We should stay out of this. There's no good end for the Venezuelans, but let Maduro own the catastrophe........I can see how security forces have a vested interest in Maduro's survival, but who else there is rooting for him? ......Do Panamanians blame us for overthrowing Noriega? Sometimes intervention works, and sometimes it doesn't. Mostly it doesn't.
"So,” he finally breaks the tension, ”I guess you’re coming to live with me, the wife, the dogs and the parakeet.”
So how does this guy's wife feel about him risking his life for some female American stuff-white-people-like journalist? I guess it's a job, anyway.
Once I see them, I go quiet, and I try my best to look inconspicuous in my tights and hoodie
What? Is she a teenager?
I nod and laugh as the stern man takes out a bright pink lollipop and carefully unwraps it for me.
Oh, I see, she's a child.
Dressed up and made up, using our smartphone flashlights to see each other’s faces, we talk and drink and occasionally bump into each other.....before long we have bonded over rum and misery, swapping names and stories while each drop of rum lessens the anxiety
Have foreign correspondents always been this insufferably up their own asses or I am I getting old and cranky?
FFS. You can all GO HOME.
Trump is intervening in Venezuela by blocking oil exports from that country and flooding the market with US oil to discourage smuggling.
Likewise making it hard for Putin to come up with the money to support all these "friends of Vlad" around the world.
"Have foreign correspondents always been this insufferably up their own asses or I am I getting old and cranky?"
They have, often. Goes back a long way. Also much of the whole class of people wandering around the world in NGO's and other such organizations.
See "Emergency Sex (and Other Desperate Measures)", Kenneth Cain
Speaking as a child of Cuban exiles, I would have to ask what argument could be made in support of the liberation of Venezuela that wouldn't equally apply to Cuba, never mind some additional ones like "Cubans Americans learned the lessons" and "way way more overdue". JFK totally flubbing the Bay of Pigs doesn't count. One would assume that, if the NY Times publishes your landing site on the front page before you actually get there, not changing your landing site falls in the category of "avoidable error".
(So does refusing to fire from your ships at the tanks on shore)
I have been speculating that there is a faction in Washington, D.C. dedicated to honoring JFK's memory and his bargain with Khrushchev.
Eventually Colombia and Brazil will take measures as they can't continue to absorb so many refugees.
I think the situation in Venezuela will eventually become a bloodbath, the likes of which you haven't seen in the Western Hemisphere since the 1860s. The power outages will just continue until the lights don't come back on- I give it less than a year to reach that point. The government has basically been using all its capital to give out payoffs to allies and itself. It is why the state-owned oil company is collapsing and is why the infrastructure is collapsing everywhere.
Someone in the military is going to have to kill Maduro and all his closest henchmen to stop this, but I am not hopeful since such a thing is more likely to just give someone as bad as Maduro.
Free Aruba! A goes Venezuela,so goes Aruba. It's a domino theory.
The Russian military has every right to colonize Venezuela, SOS John " I never met a commie I didn't want to dry hump" Kerry announced that the Monroe Doctrine was over, kaput! Remember the Hussein Obama admin was going to transform the world.
Putin playing Mighty Mouse. Here I come to save the daaaaaay!
This wretched, lethal chaos will be OUR reality, if the likes of Kameltoe Harris and "Beto" and their demented legions successfully complete their great leap forward. Is there any wonder why these leftist orcs want to disarm normal Americans? Civilian firearm ownership in Venezuela was outlawed years ago, "for the good of the people." Look where those sorry bastards are now - starving, bathing in open sewers and running like hunted animals from their president's personal enforcers.
The Venezuelan jungles are deep and rich. They have room for many Russian bodies.
Venezuela is like Nicaragua was 35 years ago, effectively run by Cuban military and security forces along russian lines, although they had some south American drones in their security services, the sebim is a clone of the dgi.
...despite any White House fantasies about a quick and clean operation that puts an end to the last socialist stronghold.
Well, at least she threw in a Trump-disparaging reference. Quality journalism...IT'S TRUMP'S FAULT!
Why worry, Beto just made AOC seem like a cockeyed optimist..he say we only have ten years before the earth boils over...
When I was in a Liberal New England College in the late 80s some things were just accepted.
Castro was good
Pinochet was bad...
Then in the early 90s I moved to south Florida, and I met actual Cubans. I learned plenty about Castro. In the past decade I have met many Venezuelans most of whom were professionals and business people who saw the writing on the wall and got out when the getting was good. I have never met a Chilean who wasn't on vacation or a business trip.
I think we should stay out of Venezuela, let them be another example (one that cannot be hidden on a island) of how bad socialism is when given power.
In Havana there is a giant statue of a chicken with a young girl holding a fork on top. (google it) The statue is to pay tribute the all the young women who rode "old male chickens" to get food to eat during the 90s.
Sadly I think Venezuela needs to ride that Chicken as an example to others.
Venezuela is a failed state with nothing to offer two petroleum rich nations.
What does Putin really want? Why is Netanyahu in Moscow?
Al Venezuela really needs is a Second Amendment. The American Left wants to trade ours for their economy.
Venezuela is yet another foreign policy blunder for the president. Never mind repeatedly floating the idea of invading the country. The administration rushed into an internal squabble and recognized Guaido as the president despite the fact that he has no legitimate claim on the title and has no support from the military or security services. Trump has compounded that mistake by drawing a "red line" of his own and demanding that Russian troops leave, a demand that will almost certainly be ignored.
@Gahrie:
The U.S. should provide financial and logistic support to Brazil and Columbia, and have them overthrow Maduro for us.
Riiiight. Because if there's one thing we've learned over the last 20 years, it's that whenever outside forces overthrow a government, the results for the targeted country and the surrounding area are always fantastic.
Maduro has done what most people would consider impossible. He took a country with the world's largest oil reserves, a country rich in other natural resources and good farmland and trashed it to the point that Cuba looks good in comparison. Heck of a job! Had George W Bush not intervened when the Venezuelan Army lead a coup to oust Chavez Venezuela wouldn't be in the disastrous shape its in.
The original Soviet empire was all the states on the edge of Russia, except Cuba which got a subsidy of 4 to 5 billion a year through exchanges of sugar for oil. Venezuela only has oil to sell or exchange. Russia doesn't need Venezuelan oil and it's hard to picture Russia working to increase Venezuelan production by fixing the failing refineries and drilling sites. So Russian intervention seems like a disaster for Venezuela. But socialists never care what they do to the people. That's why it was a mistake to vote socialism in with Chavez.
@cubanbob:
Maduro has done what most people would consider impossible.
I would say the fault belongs more to Chavez than Maduro. Chavez just had the good fortune of high commodity prices filling state coffers.
Had George W Bush not intervened when the Venezuelan Army lead a coup to oust Chavez Venezuela wouldn't be in the disastrous shape its in.
I have no idea how you can make that case. Overwhelming popular support within Venezuela, as well as loyalist elements within the military seemed much more responsible for revering the abortive coup.
Riiiight. Because if there's one thing we've learned over the last 20 years, it's that whenever outside forces overthrow a government, the results for the targeted country and the surrounding area are always fantastic.
They couldn't be any worse.
@gahrie:
They couldn't be any worse.
Sure it could. See Somalia.
the people can be stupid at time, hence the last eight years of Obama, they were lulled by an Cuban regime operation that involved use of medical personnel as well educators, plus the purging of the more anticommunist elements in the security services, beginning with posada carriles,
Somalia fell apart on it's own, shipwrecking among other omar's extended family, it was the looting by ex regime partisans like aidid, that brought the crisis to a head, and al queda, took a scalp or two during the battle of the black sea (Mogadishu)
@narciso:
As usual, that has nothing to do with the point I was making.
well you say the intervention was the cause, when it was more likely the 20 plus years of soviet influence:
https://babalublog.com/2019/04/02/how-cubas-castro-dictatorship-has-kept-venezuelas-maduro-dictatorship-in-power/
@narciso:
well you say the intervention was the cause, when it was more likely the 20 plus years of soviet influence
Please quote where I said that.
The Venezuela national assembly voted Maduro out and Guiado in, which was the basis for US recognition.
I too hate people who go to war zones to report news. Fox & Friends already got it covered.
@Hagar:
The Venezuela national assembly voted Maduro out and Guiado in, which was the basis for US recognition.
The National Assembly has no authority to "vote Maduro out and Guiado [sic] in." From The legal justification used by the State Department to recognize the opposition leader doesn’t hold water:
"In fact, Venezuela’s constitution doesn’t allow for impeachment by the National Assembly, of which Guaidó is the leader. Instead, it specifies that the president can be recalled by popular vote.
Article 233 doesn’t say that the assembly can remove the president. It just says that the president of the National Assembly can fill the office of the presidency for 30 days if the president “shall become permanently unavailable to serve.” It lists the bases for permanent unavailability, which include removal from office by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, physical or mental disability, or abandonment of office.
None of those conditions has been met."
and they fixed that referendum five years ago, so james did you think the soviet regime was legitimate for 70 some years, how about Maos, the Soviets can deploy their proxies from eastern Europe to south America, and yet the problem is the reaction,
Ugh. No thanks. We really don't need to stick our noses in this mess. Can we just stay out starting a new war for 4 lousy years? I bet Trump has to reign back Bolton and the other perpetual warfare wing with all his might to stay out of it.
now there are multiple power blocs in Venezuela, Maduro is just a figurehead, cabello is the head of the army, Chavez's brother is the head of the secret police, aisammi, ran the passport office that sold them to Hezbollah and al queda,
@narciso:
Not sure who James is, but to answer your question, the US does not care about democratic legitimacy. Our entire posture in the middle east is predicated on supporting autocratic rulers who use tactics like summary imprisonment, secret police, and torture to keep a lid on democratic forces. So the notion that a fixed referendum or a lack of democratic legitimacy is going to give us the vapors is laughable.
the Soviets can deploy their proxies from eastern Europe to south America, and yet the problem is the reaction,
The problem, from an American perspective, is that we are foolishly involving ourselves in a conflict we have no business in and in which we are trying to overthrow a government. I get that for a warmonger like you, the US can never be intervening enough, but I think most sensible people understand that a few Russian troops in Venezuela is about as worrisome as a cloudy day.
My preference would be a resistance like that in the 80s, against the sandinistas ideally supported by affected govt in braxil or Colombia
We are not too big to fail.
Donald Trump is not Barack Obama; he will not intervene unless Madura and Putin give him an unmistakeable reason. Not just an excuse, but a reason. Maduro might, but Putin is wiser. It’s not as though we need their oil.
(He’s different in another way. If we do go into Venezuela, we will go in hard and fast, with minimum American casualties. And we will go in to win, and quickly.)
@Big Mike:
Donald Trump is not Barack Obama
Actually, in this case, he is repeating all of Obama's mistakes in Syria. He has already that demanded Russia "has to get out," and in doing has drawn a red line of his own. When the Russians inevitably ignore Trump's demand, then what?
It’s not as though we need their oil.
If only Trump knew that. He has repeatedly floated the idea of intervening in Venezuela for "their oil."
(He’s different in another way. If we do go into Venezuela, we will go in hard and fast, with minimum American casualties. And we will go in to win, and quickly.)
Right. We could never get bogged down in Venezuela. It is amazing to me after the abject failures of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria that people can still make statements like that.
p.s. What a Military Intervention in Venezuela Would Look Like
Well us forces have decimated the Wagner group, the outfit mentioned In Fernandes link.
100 Russian troops are not enough for any sort of security force. Lavrov said they are technicians who are supposed to service the SU 35’s and S-300’s purchased from Russia. That is certainly correct.
On the other hand, Venezuela’s electrical generating and distribution system is brand new, installed by the ABB corporation, a major international electrical system contractor. The fact that it collapsed indicates that the US shut it down using something like the Stuxnet virus. Whatever Hell Venezuela is suffering, we did it.
Maduro, idiot socialist that he is, is the legitimate President of Venezuela; Guaido is an imposter. Once again, Russia intervenes legally, and we commit war crimes.
As ugly as it is, in Ukraine, Syria, and now Venezuela, the Russians are the good guys, and we, the US, are the bad guys.
76 years old, and I never thought I would believe that.
Misplaced, buwaya -- re foreign correspondents, give me Michael Totten any day!
@sykes1:
As ugly as it is, in Ukraine, Syria, and now Venezuela, the Russians are the good guys, and we, the US, are the bad guys.
I am not sure if value-laden terms like "good guys" and "bad guys" is particularly useful in this context, but I take your point and am in broad agreement.
There really is no reason that the US should not have good, constructive relations with Russia. Our interests are far convergent than they are divergent. And yet, we continue to needlessly antagonize and goad Russia as if they should be the Russia of the 1990s in perpetuity.
Well us forces have decimated the Wagner group, the outfit mentioned In Fernandes link.
As usual, narciso, your comment is as lost as a fart in the wind.
The outfit operating in the Sudan and a bunch of other states, putatively against al queda, which is plausible the collectivos faes are the most difficult opponent because they are trained in irregular warfare like the so called Iraqi resistance
Russians are pragmatic by nature, in Syria they support non Islamic forces, but in Venezuela aissami has been handing out clean passports to moslem militants for years.
What if Maduro, like Erdogan, let the лиса into the chicken house?
Russia has nothing to gain in Venezuela, nor can Putin sustain a remote war.
Putin must control Syria and Turkey to control the Bosporus and bring the Balkans and Ukraine to heel.
We want Syria and Venezuela off our plate. Netanyahu wants the Golan.
Come on down, Vlad!
@narciso:
Russians are pragmatic by nature, in Syria they support non Islamic forces
I agree with you about Russian pragmatism. I would say that Russia is largely a conservative, status quo power, while the US remains committed to a revolutionary worldview and foreign policy.
but in Venezuela aissami has been handing out clean passports to moslem militants for years.
I agree with you, but I don't think it is an issue to get worked up over. Hamas and Hezbollah are not significant threats to US security interests. Compare Venezuelan support for Islamic militants to America's. We provided arms and money to radical Salafist groups in Syria to make war against the government. And the Saudi war in Yemen, enthusiastically supported and assisted by the US, has empowered and armed Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
@BJM:
Putin must control Syria and Turkey to control the Bosporus and bring the Balkans and Ukraine to heel.
Russia does not control either Syria or Turkey. They have long had a relationship with Syria due to the Russian naval facility at Tartus. Without it, Russian ships would have to sail all the way back to the Black Sea for maintenance and repair.
We want Syria and Venezuela off our plate. Netanyahu wants the Golan.
There is an easy way to get both "off our plate." Stop intervening there. And yet Trump has already abandoned his pledge to withdraw American troops from Syria, and his recent actions have deepened involvement in the Venezuelan crisis.
US recognition of the Golan Heights as Israeli territory was certainly a sop to Netanyahu before an election, but as is usual for that one-sided relationship, what exactly did America get out of the deal?
Seriously ration cards no food or toilet paper while they ship food to Cuba, waves
Seen this movie before.
Don't worry Pedro, we ain't gonna come south and DIE fighting to save you from your own stupidity. You voted the socialist in... you find a way to overthrow them. And now with the Ruskies involved, that might be kind of hard to do.
We are gonna build a wall and keep you suckers out... you made your bed, now sleep in it.
J. Farmer said...
@sykes1:
As ugly as it is, in Ukraine, Syria, and now Venezuela, the Russians are the good guys, and we, the US, are the bad guys.
I am not sure if value-laden terms like "good guys" and "bad guys" is particularly useful in this context, but I take your point and am in broad agreement.
There really is no reason that the US should not have good, constructive relations with Russia. Our interests are far convergent than they are divergent. And yet, we continue to needlessly antagonize and goad Russia as if they should be the Russia of the 1990s in perpetuity.
4/2/19, 8:22 PM
J. Farmer, you should be aware that "sykes1" aka Bob Sykes is an actual, professional Russian shit-stirrer, who is all over Disqus spreading the Rodina's party line. His "we" is a lie. He is not "nash" he is "svoi." Or, he's "nash" like Captain Norman Nash in From Russia with Love.
I know you don't care about people's motivations, but thought you should be aware. Test him. Get him to disserve the interests of Russia in any way.
Post a Comment