I'm reading "America would run out of avocados in three weeks if Trump shuts the US-Mexico border" in The Daily Mail.
You couldn't pick a worse time of year? It seems to me this is the best time of year for Trump's move. It puts the pressure on Mexico, with its immense glut of perishable food. What's it to us if we go without one particular food, eat something else, and then get back to that food as California warms up? That's how we used to eat. That's closer to the locavore ideal. Restaurants and home foodsters will adjust easily. No one needs to eat avocados. But people who have grown avocados need to sell them. And why shouldn't Mexico help us with the illegal immigration problem?
I'm guessing it is a big problem for Barnard's company, Mission Produce. I see Mission Produce is one of the case studies presented at Harvard Business School:
As the leading distributor of fresh avocados in the U.S., Mission Produce was at a crossroads in late 2013. Avocado consumption was booming and CEO Steve Barnard wanted to acquire additional land in Peru and develop new avocado farms to help fill a projected supply gap. Mission could also buy avocado farms in other countries, expand its international marketing efforts, invest in brand building in Asia, and/or add processed avocado products. This strategy case describes Mission's growth, entrepreneurial leadership, future opportunities, and financing alternatives.ADDED: Nudging hipsters to whine about their avocado toast is kind of a genius move.
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On Election Day 2020, the voters will remember that President Trump wanted to stop this invasion and that the Democrats wanted to prevent Trump from stopping the invasion.
He can't pull the trigger on the border. Everyone knows that. Nothing Burger
Avo's lede because Millennials are having a love affair with Avogadro's Toast.
What’s the political affiliation of the typical US avocado consumer, I wonder. Whose guac is being gored?
Who cares.
If we run out of avocados, don't tell Beto about it.
I've never had guacamole or an avocado so sorry not sorry.
Oh NOOOES. How will we ever live without a daily supply of avocados!!! The inhumanity!! We may have to cancel Cinco De Mayo without avocados.
Seriously? He thinks this is a major problem that most people are worried about?
Sure, your child was killed by an illegal immigrant drunk driver, but think about the AVOCADOS...!
He can't pull the trigger on the border. Everyone knows that. Nothing Burger
Hope that fancy burger doesn't come with avocado.
Nothing Burger
Spice up that nothing with a little avocado. Guacamole, it's what's for dinner!
I honestly could see Trump having fun with this lament at one of his rallies.
"They say, 'Oh, Mr. President, where will we get our avocados?' Avocados? Who really likes avocados? Who eats those things? Right? Tomatoes. Get yourself a nice Jersey tomato and stop with this avocado thing."
Let's declare Mexico a failed state, because it is, roll in the tanks, and take it over. We've taken Chapultepec Castle before.
Btw, avocado isn't spicy. Guacamole is spicy because of the added onions, peppers, etc.
Hmm, civil rights, human rights, mitigating PC (e.g. political corruption), and emigration reform. Or labor arbitrage, human trafficking, democratic gerrymandering, and avocados.
Americans would run out of avocados in three weeks if imports from Mexico were stopped...
Avogeddon?
Avopocalypse?
The growers in Cali are probably salivating. Can you imagine the price they'll demand for their avocados? Whole Foods here in Texas charges almost 2 bucks each when they're not on sale.
Wake me up when they run out of tequila.
Mexico’s Top 10 Exports [dollar value, exclude smuggling]
Vehicles: US$115.5 billion (25.6% of total exports)
Electrical machinery, equipment: $81.9 billion (18.2%)
Machinery including computers: $75.4 billion (16.7%)
Mineral fuels including oil: $29.7 billion (6.6%)
**
Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $19 billion (4.2%)
Furniture, bedding, lighting, signs, prefab buildings: $10.6 billion (2.4%)
Plastics, plastic articles: $9.5 billion (2.1%)
Vegetables: $7.2 billion (1.6%)
Articles of iron or steel: $6.7 billion (1.5%)
Gems, precious metals: $6.7 billion (1.5%)
**
"drug cartels in Mexico see a $25–30bn yearly profit"
Don't worry. Avocado mules will smuggle balloons of guacamole over the border in their colons.
Whole avocados might be harder to come by.
I’d love to see Trump do something this stupid. Good fodder for political ads as we tick up to the election. However it would hurt the Americans who own companies like Mission Produce, plus a recession would hurt all of us, even those Trumpists in nowhere land, USA.
“In 2018 there was $346 billion in goods imported and $265 billion of goods exported to Mexico. On an average day this is about $950 million in imports and $725 million in exports for a total of $1.675 billion every day.
While imports and exports are not the only impact on a very complex economy from a border closing, the numbers show that it could be large enough to throw the economy into a recession. However, since the economy is something that Trump is counting on to get him re-elected, shutting down the border would be going against his self-interest.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2019/04/01/trump-closing-the-mexico-border-could-throw-the-us-into-a-recession/#1e9e101131a8
What's Hair-Sniffer Joe's position on the looming avocado shortage?
"Americans would run out of avocados in three weeks if imports from Mexico were stopped..."
...not exactly an earth-shattering kaboom, that.
“Investors don’t believe Trump
Trump has threatened shutting down the border with Mexico multiple times, so it appears investors are looking at him crying wolf again. However, if he does go through with his threat, there should be a large negative reaction in the markets. This is probably one of the few factors that will keep him from going through with this.”
Forbes
Thanks to Bob Boyd’s comment, I have a mental image I cannot shake... and I’ll never eat guacamole again!
I started to tell you guys you can all come visit Casa Pants in south Texas where they sell avocados by the box at the roadside stands and we'll have ourselves an Althousian Guac Fest. Then I realized I'd never wondered whether they were grown on this or that side of the border. Hmmmmm.....
Mr. Pants was recently a delegate to our church's diocesan council which was held in McAllen this year. Our bishop was born and raised in Brownsville. There was also a speaker from the church in Honduras discussing the migrant crisis from that perspective. Something our bishop said was interesting ~ he said the border security issue is a complicated one both as a citizen and as a Christian; he pointed out as a lifetime border town resident that part of the complication right now is that the people, migrants, who are putting pressure on the border are not border zone *residents.* They are from other places such as central America. This makes it very hard on the people who live on both sides of the border, as he put it our friends and neighbors, who have enjoyed a fairly porous border and the friendship and trade that enables. I thought that was an interesting way to put it. We all benefit when we don't have to be hardasses about the border. Mexico, a little help, please?
The profits-y of Catastrophic Avocado Dietary Change (CADC).
Emigration reform is a first-order forcing of CADC.
For decades, the government knew, but did not reveal, the extent risk of CADC to Americans, grocers, and green diets.
No one who doesn't live near the border has any idea what's happening here. The impact of a border closure would be much more serious than lack of avocados but something needs to be done. Soon!
I wonder why avocados were on sale at the local Frys in Tucson.
All the avocados here come from Mexico.
Per Bob Boyd: Don't worry. Avocado mules will smuggle balloons of guacamole over the border in their colons.
Whole avocados might be harder to come by.
You might be surprised at the capacity of some colons.
Inga
Now tell us how much Martin Luther King holidays cost us.
Beto O’Rourke has a solution!
I agree that closing the border when trade rivals are showing up to sell goods is a good negotiating tactic. I just have a difficult time believing that Mexico's best way to deliver such produce to the US is over land and across the border. Do they drive the Avocados all the way up from Peru? If the US/Mexico border was closed; would it prevent trade from Asia?
Blogger Ignorance is Bliss said...
Americans would run out of avocados in three weeks if imports from Mexico were stopped...
Avogeddon?
Avopocalypse?
Ragnarocado?
You might be surprised at the capacity of some colons.
Good news...so..uh...go ahead and close the border then?
Not to go all "Chuck" on you, Althouse, but this was an excellent analysis.
If Trump does in fact close the border, I predict a surge in avocado imports from Colombia and the DR, a large proportion of which will be transshipped from Mexico. Net effect: a slight increase in price due to slightly higher shipping costs.
All Mexico has to do is cooperate with these caravans.
Shut it down !
Harvard Business School weighs in:
"The paradigm shift from conventional transport modalities to mule colons would represent a significant challenge for Mission's growth, entrepreneurial leadership, future opportunities, and financing alternatives."
How long can Americans go without avocados verses the time Mexicans can go without selling them is the question. Helpful to our argument is the unmistakable fact that produce has a short window of shelf life. Let those a avocados sit in the Mexican sun until the Mexicans get the message.
Then Mr. Barnard surely must be an enthusiastic supporter of serious measures to stop illegal immigration. One should be able to google up any number of quotable quotes from him about how uncontrolled illegal immigration is a problem that is starting to damage his business, and how the President or Congress really needs to *do something yesterday* about that, right?
Right?
Bob Boyd said...
Don't worry. Avocado mules will smuggle balloons of guacamole over the border in their colons.
Balloons cost money. Cuts into profit margin.
Couldn't we close the border to everything except trade, and still allow transportation of goods and people with FMM permits to work in MX? I'm puzzled by description which make it sound like all or nothing. Can't we meter flow through the POE?
HBS didn't examine Mission's Mission Statement.
"Missish" means prim and prudish, not plum or prunish.
Can't we meter flow through the POE?
Child smuggling will continue. Diego and the Giant Avocado.
Can't the avocados be shipped through ports?
Holy Guacamole! This could be a national disaster! Sarc.
Pants: Something our bishop said was interesting ~ he said the border security issue is a complicated one both as a citizen and as a Christian; he pointed out as a lifetime border town resident that part of the complication right now is that the people, migrants, who are putting pressure on the border are not border zone *residents.* They are from other places such as central America. This makes it very hard on the people who live on both sides of the border, as he put it our friends and neighbors, who have enjoyed a fairly porous border and the friendship and trade that enables.
Pleasantly surprised to hear a bishop give at least some acknowledgment that the welfare of the community of his own flock and his own neighbors matters. To an outsider it often looks like the middle- and higher-echelons of most Christian denominations are staffed entirely with Mrs. Jellybies.
There used to be plenty of avacodo orchards in San Diego.
To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their hipsters...
The hipsters can eat green baby shit.
Can't the avocados be shipped through ports?
I suppose they could, but that's where the timing comes in again. It would take time to set up the new logistics.
I imagine they'd have to transport the avocados to the export ports in Mexico instead of just haul them over the border. They'd probably have to be put into shipping containers, ships would have be available, the receiving US ports would have to be set up to handle avocados, get them onto trucks to take them inland to the facilities that normally receive them when they come across the border. All this without the produce going bad in the process. If there was sufficient time to prepare, it could probably be done. The cost would certainly be affected.
Us Deplorables don't give a shit about avocados. Now if Miracle Whip was made in Mexico..
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...
Couldn't we close the border to everything except trade...
Not an expert, but I suspect the answer is no. If the border crossing is open, then anyone who shows up and claims asylum has to get their day in court. Lawyers. Judges. Released with ( or without ) bail. Show up ( or don't ) for court date. Etc.
Blogger Ann Althouse said...
Can't the avocados be shipped through ports?
4/2/19, 11:13 AM
There is very little difference to CBP if you ship thru a port of entry at the land border or ship thru a seaport (which is what I assume you mean when you say ports, even though they're all called ports) or even an airport.
But the cost may be prohibitive. Shipping via trucks has got to be much easier and cheaper than shipping on container vessels.
Ignorance is Bliss said...
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...
Couldn't we close the border to everything except trade...
Not an expert, but I suspect the answer is no. If the border crossing is open, then anyone who shows up and claims asylum has to get their day in court. Lawyers. Judges. Released with ( or without ) bail. Show up ( or don't ) for court date. Etc.
4/2/19, 12:01 PM
Yes and no.
We could close the southern land borders and demand all trade cross via sea and air ports. This would allow trade to continue to flow from Mexico, albeit more expensively.
However, the issue isn't at the Port of entry. The issue is where the border patrol works. Where there is fence and wall and desert.
Just because you close down the ports of entry doesn't mean these people are going to stop coming and crossing.
This is what it does mean.
1) It means Trump can move personnel around from the processing at ports of entry to helping border patrol.
2) It means Mexico would feel pressure to help us by closing it's southern border and stopping the flow of migrants into the US from Central and South America.
3) It means a serious financial hit to big business that would suddenly become interested in stopping illegal immigration because now it's their problem too.
Dad, what did you do to survive the Great Avocado Famine?
Mexican avocados help pay for The Wall.
There. I fixed the problem.
At least we can stop the invasion. If there wasn't a problem with the way California let the water run into the ocean instead of farmland, we could grow our own avocados
Build a pipeline across the border. Call it Freestone XL.
"Nudging hipsters to whine about their avocado toast is kind of a genius move."
Maybe not if Trump is the person you are trying to influence.
No one needs to eat avocados.
I would've italicized needs
How is it possible that there are three weeks of avocados? they go bad so fast. Another highly overrated food in my opinion. The kind of person that says they can't live without them is the kind of person that says they can't sleep on sheets that haven't been ironed
Close it.
"Nudging hipsters to whine about their avocado toast is kind of a genius move."
And having the hipster liberals perceive it that way is even better.
I agree that doing without avocados for a few months is hardly a hardship.
But, I'd guess that most of those avocados become guacamole. And commercial guacamole not only keeps a surprisingly long time, but, it can be frozen.
So, perhaps not total ruin for avocado growers. Although in general one expects sellers to be more anxious to sell than buyers are to buy as the amount of trade in most commodities is limited more by the amount that can be sold than by the amount that can be produced.
Which is to say, keeping trade open will almost always be more important to sellers than to buyers.
I've never eaten an avocado in my life and have no plans to do so.
Call me deplorable.
That said, if this actually happens, if there is a nationwide avocado shortage, I will totally die. Please tell me this is all a big mistake!
Interesting that just last week, California avocados were recalled in six states due to a risk of listeria contamination.
IiB,
Baby shit looks like guacamole, anyway; no balloon needed.
Must organize an Avocado Protest against Trump.
Oh, NOOOOOOOOO. ANYTHING but avocados!
Inga said
"...even those Trumpists in nowhere land, USA.
The Dems need the rural vote in 2020. In 2008 Obama took 41% of the rural vote, Hillary in 2016 0nly 29%....so keep sneering at rural Americans and you'll get more Trump.
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