Meanwhile, the unemployment rate jumped to 3.9 percent — the highest rate since August — as more people felt confident enough to quit their jobs and look for new ones....
January 4, 2019
"Average earnings climbed to $27.48 an hour."
That's up 3.2% in the 12 months (up from a 3.1% increase in November), NPR reports.
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It's important to subtract out the inflation rate. Otherwise it might be either great news or disaster.
The participation rate is up. People who were no longer categorized as unemployed- discouraged workers- were encouraged to go out and look for work.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate jumped to 3.9 percent — the highest rate since August — as more people felt confident enough to quit their jobs and look for new ones....
While that statement might be true, the implication that the unemployment rate jumped because people quit their jobs is false.
While unemployment was up, so was employment, significantly. So the increase in the unemployment numbers came from people who had been both unemployed and not seeking employment now choosing to seek employment.
The increase in average earnings could certainly be cause be people quitting old jobs to take new ones.
The KKKoruptokrat party must put an end to this! Right after they abolish the electoral college.
The pinnacle of the Obama recovery just before the Trump recession.
The HORROR!! The horror... We're all gonna DIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIEEEEEEE.
...to quit their jobs and look for new ones....
Again, to quibble with the natural reading of the statement, who quits their job then looks for a new one? Don't the vast majority of people find a new job, then quit the old one?
I understand that, logically, saying that people do A and B does not require that they do them in that order. But that is certainly the normal implication the way the sentence is structured. It is also a necessary implication to support the previous cause-and-effect implication.
Ignorance is Bliss said...
Again, to quibble with the natural reading of the statement, who quits their job then looks for a new one?
My exgirlfriend got a engineering new job (Yesterday!), after looking for a new one for 2 months.
She quit her old job after they shut down the plant. There was No Way she was going to continue working for them for no pay or benefits in an empty plant
The % participation is what counts, but does not look as flashy in the headlines.
It was a 'Goldilocks' report.
Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN/Money working overtime to downplay it, or spin it negatively.
Last month the US economy added 312,000 new jobs, real wages for the middle class are up 3.2%, and yet the unemployment rate has ticked upwards. These three facts taken together can only mean that people who had been among the long-term unemployed (and consequently not counted in the unemployment statistics) are getting off welfare and reentering the labor force. This is good news for everyone except Democrats, who believe that people are much easier to control when you can threaten to cut their food stamps.
The US economy is a marvelous thing, once you get Barack Obama’s patent leather shoes off the brake pedal.
This is the key metric -
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 25 to 54 years (LNU01300060)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060
It is not yet updated for December 2018 but that should continue the trend.
It removes the confounding variables of aging baby boomers dropping out of the labor force, and indeed the labor force issue altogether.
Note that the actual employment recovery in the key working age population (ages 25-54) began very recently. It was indeed on a declining trend during the "recovery" of 2009-2015, and that the recovery only really began in 2016.
It is no coincidence that popular opinion did not match what the media was pushing.
buwaya said...
I, for one, am glad you are not dead.
buwaya's link
I second FullMoon's comment.
Glad you are around, buwaya.
Wrong people getting the money. That money is supposed to go to the Obama/Hillary set living in blue cities living off of investments. Trump has it all wrong.
From the JOLTS report, quits are running around 3.5 million per month. Some are leaving the labor force while many are finding new jobs at better pay/hour/whatever... No surprising that some quit before finding a new job.
By way of comparison, Canada's unemployment rate in December was 5.6% and real avg. Wages rose 1.49% for the year.
Thanks Khesanh.
On the page, reduce the date range to 2008-current to better see what I mean.
CPI shows inflation of 2.2%. Year over year average wage is up 3.1%
Canada's overall employment rate is still slightly better than the US, 61.7 vs 60.6%
Its not commonly understood just how bad the crisis of 2008-2009 was for the US, and how weak the recovery, both in absolute and relative terms.
The US MSM did their best to obscure the truth.
Its not commonly understood just how bad the crisis of 2008-2009 was for the US, and how weak the recovery, both in absolute and relative terms.
He made it worse.
Agree with rehajm.
Wrong people getting the money. That money is supposed to go to the Obama/Hillary set living in blue cities living off of investments. Trump has it all wrong.
Don’t worry, all these new green taxes will put the money where it’s supposed to be and we will go back if we’re lucky to the Obama new normal of 2% growth.
CPI shows inflation of 2.2%.
Drill, baby Drill!
It could have been worse.
Wells Fargo did a study of strong economy market selloffs like the one we have been seeing. They say that there have been six, and non of the previous ones were followed by a recession. All of them were followed by new market highs within two years.
Howard knows that this time is different because "Orange Man bad.” It might be different, who knows? People aren’t going to keep throwing away perfectly good smart phones for ones that can spy on them through walls, or whatever new “features” manufacturers want to add, maybe? Maybe Facebook collapses, maybe Alphabet gets regulated.... a lot can happen. But BAU of moving heavy industry overseas can’t continue forever.
I understand that the Dow went up 700+ today.
Two stories at Drudge just now
JOBS UP BIG!
+312,000
RECORD NUMBER WORKING
MANUFACTURING BEST IN 20 YEARS
HISPANIC UNEMPLOYMENT LOWEST EVER
Then, not in the headline but above the fold, so to speak:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/trump-threatened-to-keep-the-government-closed-for-months-or-even-years-schumer-says.html
I like both stories, of course but it struck me that they are connected.
PDJT wants to shrink the the federal payroll. Now, when employers are so desperate that they'll even hire former govt employees, seems like a good time to do it.
Those folks who may be looking at "years" of being furloughed will start running out of vacation and personal days and so on. They will feel the pinch of no paycheck. If they see no prospects for years, they may take permanent jobs elsewhere.
Then, if the non-essential jobs become essential again, they may not be able to or may not want to go back to the govt teat. They may find that they enjoy that feeling of being useful.
Of course there is still that "I've worked in the private sector. They expect results!" thing going on.
In any event, I am wondering if the shutdown is as much about shrinking federal payroll as the wall.
John Henry
You can see the Howards and LLR's flailing about, unsure if this is the correct time to lie about fictional obama positive economy credit, or whether to hold off since Powell is doing his best to engineer a recession.
Meanwhile, deregulation, the tax cuts, the trade battles in the favor of the US, the repatriation of cash, the return if significant manufacturing to the US, increasing wages as well as total employment participation keeps chugging along.
Commies, socialists, Howard and LLR Chuck hardest hit.
Didn’t AOC already explain this as the result of more people working “two jobs”?
A correction to the market is very healthy, it shakes out the uninformed and puts a damper on bubbles. The market will absorb the wealth of the shorters, (unless you happen to know something that others don't, "APPLE?"
Howard said...
“The pinnacle of the Obama recovery just before the Trump recession.“
I think you are smart enough to know how fucking stupid your statement is.
It must hurt being a tool.
Democrats hate it when wages and pay for the working class actually go up.
Powell is going to get the fed eliminated. He is making it clear that the only purpose of the fed is to enrich the wealthy and maintain power for the uniparty.
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