December 26, 2018

A good day.

91 comments:

n.n said...

Bells are ringing... Traders are singing... CiC visits the troops in Iraq... and, perhaps not first snow, but a sustainable snowfall.

eddie willers said...

A late Christmas present.

gilbar said...

just like that bastard Trump!
not only increasing the Air Force presence in Iraq; but drastically increasing my capital gains taxes

gilbar said...

</sarc

anti-de Sitter space said...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4UqMyldS7Q&list=RDh4UqMyldS7Q&start_radio=1&t=6

Mike Sylwester said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mike Sylwester said...

The White House is in chaos.

Robert "The FBI Whitewasher" Mueller is hot on the trail of Russia's superspy Carter Page, who traveled to Moscow and met with some Russians during the 2016 Presidential election campaign. Mueller will reveal all the collusion details, and then President Trump will be impeached.

Birkel said...

Although Trump deserves blame for the last few weeks of stock market slides, Obama deserves the credit for this stock market upside correction. #TrumpDidNotBuildThat
-- Leftist Collectivists in unison

It is terrible that Air Force One pilots were forced to fly President Trump to his photo-op in Iraq, especially when they're not even getting paid. OrangeManBad, for real this time. #Impeach
-- Leftist Collectivists in unison

YoungHegelian said...

I'm just not seeing the reasons here either for the slide down or for the bounce back up. The article at CNBC says that the market was up on retail sales & oil prices. If that's the case, then why the slump? Oil prices have been good for some time now, & it was clear that Christmas sales were good for the past couple of weeks. Does Wall Street have to be hit in the head with a 2x4 before they see a trend? I don't think so.

I just don't see any good explanation for the market slide. A correction for the earlier exuberance, yes, but not as low as it got. I'm still looking for some reasons from the likely suspects.

bagoh20 said...

I pretty much stopped watching regular TV (broadcast and cable) for the last month. I'm 90% into streaming stuff now. Therefore, I didn't get to see all the prognosticating and punditry about the stock market drop over the last few days. I wonder who predicted today's correction to the correction. I'm guessing nobody did, but I bet there were plenty of hand-wringing negative nabobs telling us to get the hell out and dig that bunker.

tcrosse said...

Somebody must be taking it in the shorts.

gilbar said...

Birkel said...
It is terrible that Air Force One pilots were forced to fly President Trump to his photo-op in Iraq, especially when they're not even getting paid. OrangeManBad, for real this time. #Impeach
-- Leftist Collectivists in unison


Trump even has His Own Airplane, but is TOO CHEAP TO USE IT; and insists on flying at taxpayer expense!

bagoh20 said...

They always report a reason for any market move despite the fact that nobody really knows why they happen. They never say maybe this is why. They always report it like it's fact. Trump gets blamed for every downturn, but never gets credit for the rallies, except on FOX. I think that today the computerized algorithm trading plays the biggest part in these swings. That, plus the impossible to predict feelings of millions of traders from day to day that are often not really based on anything more than a personal hunch.

tim in vermont said...

My feeling is that the market went up too fast and went down too fast. I guess I should be more worried.

Leland said...

Apparently investors aren't concerned about the government shutdown. The day ended with the DJIA gaining over 1000 pts.

bagoh20 said...

The stock market plays a very valuable role in our economy, and it's a good thing, but it is really just gambling for most traders. Gambling with you having a slight edge over the house, but gambling nonetheless. I say you have a slight edge, becuase eventually if you stay in long enough, you will always win, which is the opposite of normal gambling.

tim in vermont said...

I think it’s because most of the investors that I have ever known excessively watch the cable news networks. I know one guy who is an advisor type to wealthy types and he is convinced Trump will be gone by the end of the year.

It’s true that Trump is more worried about the real economy out here in flyover country than the one that has been created in NYC and California that does great by selling out the rest of us, where the big Democrat donors live, and yeah, if you change the rules so that you are not going to be able to so easily get rich by importing cheap Chinese steel and shipping jobs and tech overseas, it’s going to disrupt the markets as we know it. So it really isn’t a surprise that the markets have been disrupted. Blue cities hardest hit.

tim in vermont said...

I heard on NPR the other day that corporate tax cuts were causing market anxiety. No, NPR, they were causing YOU anxiety.

We just found out that the US is now the dominant energy producer in the world thanks to fracking and we know that the US has more oil than the Saudis. Thanks Dick Cheney! How can this not translate into good economic news?

tim in vermont said...

End of next year, sorry.

MadTownGuy said...

YoungHegelian said...
"I'm just not seeing the reasons here either for the slide down or for the bounce back up. The article at CNBC says that the market was up on retail sales & oil prices. If that's the case, then why the slump? Oil prices have been good for some time now, & it was clear that Christmas sales were good for the past couple of weeks. Does Wall Street have to be hit in the head with a 2x4 before they see a trend? I don't think so.

I just don't see any good explanation for the market slide. A correction for the earlier exuberance, yes, but not as low as it got. I'm still looking for some reasons from the likely suspects.
"

My first inclination was to wonder what would happen if there were a Soros sell off.

Drago said...

YoungHegelian: "I'm just not seeing the reasons here either for the slide down or for the bounce back up. The article at CNBC says that the market was up on retail sales & oil prices. If that's the case, then why the slump?"

Fed Chairman Powell sent an unequivocal message that by God he was going to squeeze the living snot out of the money supply in order to stop the non-existent inflation problem. He signalled no change to his plan for at least 2 more additional rate hikes in 2019.

The market reacted in a very negative fashion while he was speaking.

After a few days, with the continuing solid economic performance of companies the investors once again convinced themselves that gee, no way Powell really means all that, so the investors jumped back in at the dip to recoup value.

Unfortunately, the investors are headed for a cliff because Powell has every intention of tanking the economy in 2020 to get rid of Trump.

wild chicken said...

Mr. Market doesn't like rate hikes, but doesn't want Trump jacking with the Fed, either. Too unprecedented!

I hope the Fed sticks to its guns.

bagoh20 said...

The market is like a murmuration. Although all the birds go the same way more or less, you can't predict where they will go next, and the birds don't know either.

bagoh20 said...

This bounce back should stabilize the market some, by reassuring investors, but everything is forgotten every 24 hours.

gerry said...

Apparently investors aren't concerned about the government shutdown.

"Aren't concerned"? We are delighted! And if anyone has a retirement plan of any kind, you should be delighted as well! If it were shut down long enough, the real wastes of money would be visible.

tim in vermont said...

I think that the Fed cares about the real economy, which is doing fine. The market will catch up. Of course the uncertainties facing big tech are worrisome to the markets, but the unrestrained powers of big tech are worrisome to the rest of us. If we want to live in a world where every government policy is about growing the DJIA we can kiss freedom and innovation good bye.

tim in vermont said...

Recessions are basically concessions that the economy grew in the wrong direction, for instance, focusing on building homes for people who couldn’t pay for them, stuff like that. If we have a stock recession now, it could well be because we valued technology companies that trade in clicks too highly.

Drago said...

"I hope the Fed sticks to its guns."

Fed Chairman Powell protect us from the non-existent inflation and pay no attention to those declining commodity prices!

mockturtle said...

Bears roar. Bulls snort and paw the ground.

wild chicken said...

Guess I'm still worried about becoming Japan.

wild chicken said...

"inflation" means dangerous rises in wages!

Gahrie said...

It is terrible that Air Force One pilots were forced to fly President Trump to his photo-op in Iraq, especially when they're not even getting paid.

The people who man Air Force One are in the military, and fully expect, and are proud, to fly President Trump anywhere in the world at a moment's notice.

alanc709 said...

Especially since, it's guaranteed the military is not going to miss a paycheck.

n.n said...

US is now the dominant energy producer in the world thanks to fracking and we know that the US has more oil than the Saudis

That's not bad, but our economy, our outsourced manufacturing capacity, our green products, are highly dependent on nations that receive their oil from the Saudis et al.

Todd Galle said...

Dollar cost averaging helps me sleep at night, plus a defined benefit state pension and deferred compensation - which I grant you is not necessarily an ironclad guarantee. I'm about 4 years from finding out, but will be able to adjust as needed, with my wife only 2 years away.

readering said...

Phew.

n.n said...

than the one that has been created in NYC and California that does great by selling out the rest of us, where the big Democrat donors live

The leverage economy a.k.a. debt economy in cosmopolitan fiefdoms that is profoundly prosperous while forcing global, decadal misalignments.

Mike said...

A marginally better day!

Howard said...

According to Rachel Maddcow, That's not Melania, it's a plastic blow-up doll.

The Vault Dweller said...


Blogger mockturtle said...
Bears roar. Bulls snort and paw the ground.


Yes, but a stock market snorting as it gains more than 1,000 points, doesn't sound very positive. In fact it vaguely sounds related to cocaine.

bagoh20 said...

"The people who man Air Force One are in the military, and fully expect, and are proud, to fly President Trump anywhere in the world at a moment's notice."

Besides, when the zombies break out I'd like to be flying Air Force One.

The Godfather said...

Wait just a dang minute there! I heard that Trump was all alone in the White House, weeping because Nancy and Chuck wouldn't return his calls, and now you tell me he's not only not in the White House, he's in Iraq, and he's got Melania with him and thousands of US military? She-it! Next thing you're going to tell me he's going to ask those military fellas and gals to build his danged Wall, and they're gonna say, Yessir Mr. President!

The Drill SGT said...

"It is terrible that Air Force One pilots were forced to fly President Trump to his photo-op in Iraq, especially when they're not even getting paid. OrangeManBad, for real this time. #Impeach
-- Leftist Collectivists in unison"

For the record:

1. The DoD is funded
2. even if it weren't, AF-1 staff are mission essential and would fly
3. even if they weren't, they would still fly

gilbar said...

you're absolutely right, Drill Sgt; but we're being Snarky: so go away!

Tommy Duncan said...

Blogger bagoh20 said...

"This bounce back should stabilize the market some, by reassuring investors, but everything is forgotten every 24 hours."

Inga runs the stock market?

tim in vermont said...

To be honest with you, I feel like maybe we have been punishing savers long enough by forcing them to lend their money for free. Yeah, there will be disruption, like there is any time you end a scam.

Rabel said...

"I wonder who predicted today's correction to the correction."

“I have great confidence in our companies. We have companies, the greatest in the world, and they’re doing really well. They have record kinds of numbers. So I think it’s a tremendous opportunity to buy.”

- D. Trump, Christmas Day, 2018

BUMBLE BEE said...

Hey Howard... does your plastic blow up doll look like Rachel Madow??

Trumpit said...

What's the difference between Donald Schlump and the stock market? The stock market will go up and down, while Schlump is going down for the count.

gadfly said...

It a long way to Tipperary and even longer to a 26,000 DOW. So I dumped some ETFs.

stevew said...

If you hold, as I have done, you didn't lose anything.

Drago said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Drago said...

stevew: "If you hold, as I have done, you didn't lose anything."

Shhhhh.

Gadfly has abandoned the finger paints and wants to opine...

William said...

Sir Issac Newton was heavily invested in the South Sea corporation. He thought it was a bubble and took his money out. The stock continued to rise, and he out his money back in. The bubble collapsed, and he lost everything. For the rest of his days, he became angry and upset if he even heard someone speak of the South Sea Bubble....,,,Newton was easily the smartest man of his age, and he demonstrably was not able to figure out the principles of investing. We are closest to rational animals in our economic lives, but even there we're none too rational...... The pension funds will be rebalancing their portifolios. A lot of money is going to come into the market,and the averages will rise. Then something else will happen.

tim in vermont said...

Shoppers delivered the strongest holiday sales increase for U.S. retailers in six years, according to early data.

Total U.S. retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose 5.1% between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24 from a year earlier, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks both online and in-store spending with all forms of payment. Overall, U.S. consumers spent over $850 billion this holiday season, according to Mastercard.


Seems like they didn’t get the news about Orange Man Bad in flyover country, but give the blue state elites time.

chickenlittle said...

Stock market up means a bad day for George Soros which is a good day for America.

Gk1 said...

Shoppers delivered the strongest holiday sales increase for U.S. retailers in six years, according to early data.

Total U.S. retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose 5.1% between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24 from a year earlier, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks both online and in-store spending with all forms of payment. Overall, U.S. consumers spent over $850 billion this holiday season, according to Mastercard.

Wall street Journal (notorious Trump boosters that they are)

Jim said...

The Fed chairman said his interests are not in Wall Street, but in the economy of the country. He has stated that the Fed will continue to unwind the QE, and raise interest rates as needed. Wall Street is having to deal with a functioning economy for the first time since 2009-10. The market is coming to terms with reality. FB, apple, google, twitter et al are beginning to realize that the gravy train is over. They are over valued, and its becoming difficult to ignore that fact. Risk is back, and it is freaking out the youngsters in Silicon Valley and Wall Street. Good.

Big Mike said...

Steve Mnuchin went to New York. Democrats and the press laugh at his efforts to stabilize the markets. Today the markets rebounded almost 1000 points. Waiting to be assured by the media that there was NO correlation between the two events.

chickenlittle said...

The way I look at it, gradual hikes in interest rates are OK because if gives the Fed some future ammo to use when the market crashes when the Dems eventually regain power.

walter said...

Drago said...
stevew: "If you hold, as I have done, you didn't lose anything."
Shhhhh.
Gadfly has abandoned the finger paints and wants to opine...
--
He's quick to pull out..trying to keep his hands clean...

mockturtle said...

Big Mike observes: Steve Mnuchin went to New York. Democrats and the press laugh at his efforts to stabilize the markets. Today the markets rebounded almost 1000 points. Waiting to be assured by the media that there was NO correlation between the two events.

I'm more and more convinced that the Fourth Estate is the enemy of the people.

gadfly said...

I am not at all comforted by a sharp rise in personal debt in less than a month at Christmas time. Is it good news for the economy, especially in the wake of rising prices and inflation brought on by the ill-conceived Tariff War? Some people keep pounding on how good the economy is in the face of very negative indicators, especially a falling GDP. Second quarter GDP was annualized to 4.2 as consumers reacted to the Tariff threat by buying before higher prices hit, but annualized, it is now back to 3.4 and threatening an even lower end result for the year.

Perhaps we need for Mnuchin to question bank liquidity yet again.

chickenlittle said...

Anyone who pulled out of the market prematurely deserves to take it on the chin.

wildswan said...

I was told that what's good for multinationals in terms of US sales is not good for them as overseas entities. So these days Wall Street is out of sync with the US economy. When one goes up, the other goes down. But my law of media reading which is never to pay attention to any disaster till it has been around for three days and vetted by the American samizdat is what saves me. Honestly, the media and the leftys can't even tell you which side they were on when you ask about them about events more than three days back. And they can't describe the incredible disaster they were raging about only three weeks back. They're just like Pravda as it was in the Fifties - mere conduits for sewage from the hard left.

anti-de Sitter space said...

I know we're not supposed to call it 'privatizing Social Security.' Was it 'let folks have their own hard earned dough, otherwise the gov will steal it and give it to slackers Act'?

Whatever it is supposed to be called, can we have the Rs bring that thing-y back. Sure, there's no more dreamy (according to Althouse) Paul R to jabber about it. But, the cons, lead by the Don, can just point to today. Seems like a winner.

IMHO.

anti-de Sitter space said...

The run-up to the '08 implosion was when we last loudly heard about that from cons.

Gotta get it done when ya gots a run-up. Or, the run could go the '08 way after that era's con deregulation and job-creator tax cuts. Which makes fer a much harder sell.

Record run today! Don't waste it.

A good day can lead to a great day.

MAGA!

tim in vermont said...

Definitely sell now! You can always buy later when the market goes back up!

traditionalguy said...

The FED is a closely held, Private London Bank (that has never been audited, ever) and has always been owned by only a few Mega Rich old families of the European Aristocracy. It is no more a "Federal Agency" than Federal Express. And the SOBs are suddenly running up the interest rate (that they were keeping at minus 3% to cover for Obama) blatantly trying to crash Wall Street by signalling more 4% in interest rate increases next year. Until they are replaced by the United States Treasury's own Central Bank money, we are dead meat. Stay tuned.

Birkel said...

Guys, if you are going to quote me mocking the expected negative reactions to all things Trump, you should at least recognize parody.

Be best, you stable genius people!

Robert Cook said...

"We just found out that the US is now the dominant energy producer in the world thanks to fracking...."

We can also thank fracking for poisoning the environment.

Birkel said...

Risk returns to the market... This is a net good.
Fed fighting inflation... This is fanciful.

Unwinding QE is already a significant tightening in the market.
Raising interest rates simultaneously means a whole hell of a lot of tightening all at once.
In the same way the Obama Administration made QE and zero percent interest rates "necessary" in the minds of the Fed, the stimulative effects of tax cuts, decreased economy-strangling regulations, and increasing consumer confidence make give the Fed some cushion to return to normal monetary policy.

gadfly insists that the economy humming along at more than 3% is no big deal.
But that extra percent means an extra 150-200 billion economic activity added to the economy under Trump vs Obama.
Tens of billions here.
Tens of billions there.
Eventually even gadfly should recognize that is an ass load of money.

P.S.
gadfly is a bitter idiot who would prefer Trump and the US fail than admit he is a shortsighted dumb ass. More is the pity.

Birkel said...

Robert Cook believes the Saudi/Russia propaganda about fracking.

Sad little communist!

Robert Cook said...

"This bounce back should stabilize the market some, by reassuring investors, but everything is forgotten every 24 hours."

The stock market has been jumping up and down like a pogo stick over the past half year or so. A sudden leap after successive weeks of declines (or ups and downs) could be just another indicator of ongoing volatility. This is what I will assume until a significantly sustained upturn suggests otherwise.

tim in vermont said...

Cook would rather that we depend on foreign sources of oil. He pretends to dream that we could live without oil, but he knows that’s a fantasy. Of course the way to really stop us using oil will entail something similar to the Bronze Age Collapse. The US has been cutting CO2 output more than any other industrial country due to fracking, but it’s “potentially” not perfect! The only non nuclear energy source that makes wind and solar practical is natural gas. Which comes from either fracking, or Putin.

Robert Cook said...

"Bears roar. Bulls snort and paw the ground."

And metaphors are not that which they are meant to describe.

tim in vermont said...

Robert Cook believes the Saudi/Russia propaganda about fracking.

Sad little communist!


It’s all in Hillary’s speech to Goldman Sachs too. You would think that Cookie would have read it!

Drago said...

Cookies pals in Venezuela have successfully implemented a potent combination of Lefty Economics/Green Policy resulting in the complete shutdown of their oil industry, mass exodus of their citizenry (at least those not reduced to child prostitution and vicious gang warfare for food) all culminating in the sale of Venezuelan oil assets and equipment to Russia for pennies on the dollar.

Cookie longs for the day when we in the US might also realize just such a Peoples and Workers Paradise.

PuertoRicoSpaceport.com said...

Blogger traditionalguy said...

The FED is a closely held, Private

When you say "The Fed" what are you talking about?

Are you talking about the Federal Reserve Banks? I am guessing so from context.

But it is not the federal Reserve Banks (12 of them, privately owned) that sets the rates that we are talking about.

It is the Federal Reserve Board (An agency of the federal govt) that does that at least in the context of current news.

I suspect that fewer than 1 person in 10 realizes that they are 2 (or 13) different things.

Anytime anyone speaks of "The Fed" they need to make it clear whether they are talking about the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Reserve Banks. And if about the banks, it might be well to mention which of the 12 they are talking about.

John Henry

PuertoRicoSpaceport.com said...

Blogger Robert Cook said...

We can also thank fracking for poisoning the environment.

I think we are in agreement here, Robert.

I view fracking in particular and oil and coal in general as temporary solutions until we get our act together on nuclear.

I don't see any other technologies on the horizon capable of even coming close to meeting our energy needs. Even if we ignore economics and say cost is no object.

Nuclear or fossil. Those are the world's choices.

John Henry

chillblaine said...

meh. check out the Blainer. New!

The Check-Off This essay is very tightly wound and symbolic. References to warrior culture, baseball, disinformation.

what else is new. let's bump El Yeti Viene.

El Yeti Viene! De la verdad, esta alla, El Yeti, El Yeti LOCO, ... cheeeeerss . orale!

PuertoRicoSpaceport.com said...

Oil was down around $42 yesterday (back up to about $44 today)

You want to put the hurting on Iran, Russia and other baddies in the world? This is the way to do it.

They CAN. NOT. LIVE. on oil less than $75/bbl or so. 60% of all Russia's exports are oil/gas. 30% of their entire GDP.

GW Plunkett said that an honest politician is one who will stay bought. If the Russians bought Donald Trump the presidency with their thousands of dollars of Facebook and Google ads, President Trump is not an honest politician. He is not staying bought.

Drill, baby drill. If these folks have no money it is harder for them to cause trouble.

John Henry

PuertoRicoSpaceport.com said...

I was not agreeing with Cook on fracking causing environmental problems. I do not think that it does, generally. There are some individual wells that do because of poor operation but that is not the technologie's fault.

Nor do I think CO2 (shorthand for Carbon dioxide) is a pollutant.

I do think that nuclear is a superior technology and would like to see more of it. Use it to replace fossil and the Cooks of the world would have to come up with something new.

Not to worry, they always have some new disaster on the horizon that never seems to quite get here.

John Henry

PuertoRicoSpaceport.com said...

I am surprised that Ann doesn't comment on Melania's shoes. Shoes always seem important to Ann. (I depend on Ann to inform me about women's footware fashions and she let me down on this)

Melania was very nicely dressed but then, on her feet, she wore Timberlands! Cheapass, ghetto, Timberlands! Not some fancy designer shoes costing thousands of dollars.

Shame on her!

Yahoo Lifestyle readers were having none of it. If colluding with Russians is not enough reason to impeach President Trump, allowing his wife to wear shoes like this certainly is.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/melania-trump-gets-mocked-wearing-timberland-boots-visiting-troops-221926377.html

Cue Mad Maxine

John Henry

Drago said...

PRS: "Nor do I think CO2 (shorthand for Carbon dioxide) is a pollutant."

You need to listen more closely to what the commies are "exhaling" to see that in some cases it is.

Hagar said...

CO2 is an excellent fertilizer. I think it was CO2 that made the vegetation grow to feed the huge herds of massive dinosaurs, and probably also a higher O2 content in the air that made them able to digest all the green stuff. And very strong hearts to move the blood around and up to those heights.

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langford peel said...

Now CNN is attacking the troops for asking the President to sign their MAGA hats.

The press is truly the enemy of the people.

tim in vermont said...

Wells Fargo did a study of strong economy sell offs, they have happened a few times and each time it was a great buying opportunity and no recession appeared.

Rusty said...


"I view fracking in particular and oil and coal in general as temporary solutions until we get our act together on nuclear. "

We will always need crude and coal. They both provide feedstocks for other things besides heat and light.

ken in tx said...

"Especially since, it's guaranteed the military is not going to miss a paycheck." The military did miss one or two paydays during the Carter administration. My bank, The National Bank of Fort Sam Houston, gave all their military depositors an emergency, interest free loan, equal to each one's last pay day deposit. That bank is now owned by Bank of America. I sort of doubt that they would do that today.