Strategic media leaks by anonymous officials suggest Erdogan possesses audio recordings that he’s using to extract concessions from the deep-pocketed Saudis and convince the West the kingdom is far from a reliable partner....
Turkey has been labeled the world’s “worst jailer” of journalists the past two years by the Committee to Protect Journalists. The organization says 73 journalists were behind bars in Turkey as of December 2017, according to its latest annual report, and “fresh arrests take place regularly.”
Now, however, Erdogan can point to the Khashoggi tragedy as an example of how his democracy, however flawed, is better than any Saudi alternative....
The hostility between Erdogan and elements of the ruling family in Riyadh dates back to the Arab revolts that began to convulse the region in late 2010. Erdogan had assumed the so-called Arab Spring would lead to the sprouting of like-minded governments across the region as oppressed Islamists swept to power in a democratic wave.
But those dreams were dashed in 2013, when the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Mursi, Egypt’s first elected president, was overthrown by General Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi after a year. The region’s monarchies and dictatorships, which see popular Muslim movements as existential threats, cheered....
Turkey’s impassioned backing of Mursi and other Brotherhood-inspired movements created a kind of regional anti-Erdogan bloc led by the Saudis, El-Sisi’s Egypt and the U.A.E.’s Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed, or MBZ. Ironically, given Erdogan’s intolerance of criticism, he turned the nation into a leading safe haven for Islamist dissidents, many of whom are considered terrorists at home.
October 24, 2018
"Erdogan Seizes on Saudi Murder as Chance to Upend Middle East."
Bloomberg reports.
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In a related development, KSA said it would pump oil like crazy. WTI fell hard. Now that we are an oil exporter, many in TX and ND are unhappy. But pump prices have not yet fallen.
This whole thing smells like Erdogan.
It's not that I trust the Saudi's
It's that I don't trust Erdogan.
This Bloomberg report puts some flesh on the bones of what has been going on here. The Saudis are behaving like the medieval potentates that they are. Go read 1001 Arabian Nights to get a flavor for the mores (MBS has held hundreds of his cousins and their supporters for ransom in a five-star hotel in SA). Erdogan wants to be the new Sultan in Istanbul flying the flag of the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran has been an international outlaw since 1979. These people have their own interests, as do we.
The question is, how do we play it smart. Bush knocked off Saddam, who had been at Iran's throat. No strong Iraq emerged from the wreckage. I thought that was stupid. Obama wanted to build up Iran and cut down Israel. I thought that was stupid. Trump is trying to use the Saudis to put Iran back in the cage after Bush and Obama let them out. Israel is angling for its own long-term survival, as is SA, as is Erdogan, as are the mullahs. No one should get hung up on any good guy/bad guy morality play in the Middle East.
If pump prices fall, there's less pumping. It's almost magical.
I wouldn't be surprised if there was some cooperation in the murder between members of the Saudi government and Erdogan to put pressure on the crown prince. There certainly isn't much information to explain why the crown prince considered this guy a threat to include the guy not feeling threatened to willingly walk into the Saudi embassy. There does seem a lot of political gain for Erdogan, who spent 2017 suppressing journalist in his country with like concern by the Washington Post. Indeed, there is far more evidence of Erdogan attacking freedom of the press than of say Trump. Then again Trump has given the press more access to the Presidency than Obama.
When Turkey is involved, nobody knows nothing.
Good point, Tim
I wonder how this will play out. My adopted premier/snowboard instructor Justin Trudeau seems set to hobble the Canadian economy to show the world he is on the right side. Trump is talking tough too, but it seems clear to me, especially since Saudi Arabia is led by someone determined to Westernize, that we are preparing to cut off our noses to spite our faces. What's so special about Kashoggi? Why does his murder standout in a part of the World where this sort of thing happens regularly?
How many people will ultimately die so we can posture over this one atrocity? Are we that eager to throw away middle east progress?
Shouldn't we celebrate the killing of Khashoggi. After all it's just one more beautiful thread in the quilt of life. Why should we impose our flawed racist, sexist, homophobic cultural expectations on the little brown people of KSA. It's just another relic of colonialism.
Power struggle among a lot of nasty people.
Erdogan has no virtue signals. The left is using this against Trump, of course,
Why would WaPoo give this guy a megaphone ?
Are we that eager to throw away middle east progress?
Yes. Anything to resist Trump. did you notice, Trump is not like Hitler anymore. He's worse. Hitler never cheated on his wife and Hitler served honorably in the military.
The Left has the blood of what, 100 million, of their hands.
One doesn't look so bad, then.
*on their hands*
This hides the fact it was kemal atarurks vault, a busted flush, he lost his majority the lira went splat Salman got 50 billion in pledges.
It says something about journalists that they hate Trump and his alliances more than a man who has jailed 75 of their brethren.
It doesn't say anything GOOD, but it says something.
"Bush knocked off Saddam, who had been at Iran's throat."
The Iran-Iraq war was the high point of U.S. Realpolitik, for when they were busy killing each other they had little interest in killing us?
In any case, the question regarding Saudi Arabia has always been that, as bad as it is, what realistically could ever replace it that would not be worse?
Whereas Turkey is like Pakistan in that, at best, it is a frenemy of the USA. Then again, there are reasons beyond geography why Pakistan is not (and never will) be a member of NATO.
Except that much of the west was with Iraq's side except for India which was on Iran's side, fanning the flames in timmermans Iran brief has the details
Erdogan rode to power lifted by a lot of Arab money, most of it Saudi.
A lot of it was subsequently invested in Turkey. The effect was to pay off, buy out or sideline the old secular Turkish establishment.
When the internal Saudi coup came in 2017 he lost a lot of his backers.
Turkey's strategic position has changed accordingly.
Erdogan colluding with Saudis to force a coup in Saudi Arabia?
The Left has the blood of what, 100 million, of their hands.
Several hundred million in the Oven of the Unknown Babies, alone. The 20th and 21st centuries were marred by extraordinary, unprecedented progress.
I don't think that there is much love lost between the Saudis and the Turks. What is now Saudi Arabia was under Ottoman control from a half a millennium ago (1517) up through a century ago (1915), after the Turks picked the wrong side in WW I. Almost exactly 400 years, followed by Most of the last 100 years with Turkey pivoting to the west, and away from Islam, where Saudi Arabia stepped into the secular, and esp religious void in the Muslim, and esp Sunni Muslim world as a result. Turkey has seemingly pivoted back, to face east and not west, and found Saudi Arabia in its traditional place in that part of the world. And the Saudis have a lot more money, as well as control of Mecca, etc. Turkey has a lot more people, is a member of NATO, has history behind them, etc, so isn't going to bow down either.
The interesting facet to me though is that the Khashoggi incident was clearly aimed at the western, Christian, part of the world. At western sentiments, because the Islamic world doesn't care. Both countries do this sort of thing all the time. What made Khashoggi different? The answer is that he was well known in the western world, and esp, it seems, in Wash DC. I should also note that I find it highly unlikely that the Turks have an audio recording of the Saudis killing Khashoggi, because technologically it would very likely have required Saudi government accomplices, and we haven't seen headless bodies of such showing up (which very likely means that Endrogen is lying through his teeth there). The Saudis pay top dollar for their security, which means that it is unlikely that the Turks could have recorded the murder from the outside of the consulate, and the loyalty of the supposed security team supposedly executing Khashoggi is tribal, which means that selling out the Crown Prince risks not just their personal lives, but also those of their family and even tribe. Hence my vote for Endrogen lying. The lying puts pressure on the Saudis, not because it might be true, but rather because the American press wants to believe him.
I should also note the politics here. The Trump Administration has pivoted away from the alliances left us by the (feckless) Obama foreign policy. Endrogen strongly backed the Clinton/Obama move that put the Muslim Brotherhood (which Khashoggi was putitively a member of, or at least was always very close to) into power in Egypt. Which caused Egypt to start moving from peace to war with neighboring Israel, thus completely disrupting the Saudi led stability in the Middle East. Not surprisingly then, the Saudis were backers of the Egyptian military (that really, really, badly didn't want war with Israel) that retook power from the Turkish backed MB. What is looking more and more likely is that Khashoggi was a long term Obama Administration CIA Director Brennan colleague and CIA asset. The same Brennan who lost his security clearance a month or two ago, and appears very likely to have been using the CIA to spy on the Trump campaign and transition, and helped provide the legal predicates for the FBI for their own surveillance of such. No surprise then that the US MSM (Dem operatives with bylines), with elections coming up quickly, is pushing this story so hard as they so desperately try to push at least the House to their Dem colleagues (so that Trump can be impeached).
No surprise then that the US MSM (Dem operatives with bylines), with elections coming up quickly, is pushing this story so hard as they so desperately try to push at least the House to their Dem colleagues (so that Trump can be impeached).
Yup. The old rule of "cui bono?" always applies.
Some of this may be internal Saudi intrigue. I'm sure MBS has many enemies in the family.
Just on queue:
https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/17/john-brennan-white-house-saudis
In other news...
Washington Examiner OpEd
Tom Rogan October 24 12:00 PM EST
Why the Obama-Clinton-CNN bomber will likely be caught quickly
'The bomber or bombers (the profile for incidents such as these suggest a single male bomber) apparently responsible for sending explosive devices to George Soros, Barack Obama, Hilary Clinton, and former CIA director John Brennan at CNN's New York headquarters, is likely to be caught soon.
First off, none of the explosive devices thus far sent were able to detonate. CNN and Soros' security teams deserve particular credit here because they lack the formalized screening systems available to the Secret Service. These "left of boom" interceptions-before-detonation will provide a treasure trove of investigative material to the Secret Service and the FBI. Focusing on the packages' origins, and their design, components, explosive type, and detonator systems, investigators will be able to narrow down who would have had the skill and training to construct them. That said, it is worth noting here that neither the Soros or the CNN devices detonated. That raises the prospect that the devices were made with faulty detonator-receiver connections...'
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/why-the-obama-clinton-cnn-bomber-will-likely-be-caught-quickly
Now, these non-exploding bombs were sent out two weeks before the mid-term elections.
Since they were all sent out to progressive Democrat icons, they must have been sent out by a right-wing nut job. Right?
Except if they were actually designed NOT TO GO OFF (we don't know now whether or not this was intentional) then there is the oft-used template by the left of writing hate symbols (Nazi Swastikas, KKK nooses, etc on the door of a college dorm room. Only to find out later that the hate symbols were actually written by the occupant of the dorm room to scare up concern about the Nazis among us.
Suggesting this possibility may qualify me as a conspiracy theory nut job.
But since there is already a template for such activity, it may be a reasonable hypothesis until otherwise disproven.
Loved the headline.
I am not seeing much strategic thinking in the Halls of Congress.
Regards — Cliff
Erdogan is why I was reserving judgment about Saudi culpability all the way until the Saudis actually aid Saudis killed him.
Bush knocked off Saddam, who had been at Iran's throat. No strong Iraq emerged from the wreckage. I thought that was stupid.
The problem was that a strong Iraq was a perpetual threat to march south and seize the Arabian Peninsula, unite the cheaper-to-extract half of the world's oil reserves, pursue WMD programs from an economic position immune to sanctions regimes, and basically become a regional hegemon of major global economic power.
Such a threat could be contained by permanently stationing US forces in Saudi Arabia; unfortunately, that solution led to the Khobar Towers bombing, the US embassy bombings in Africa, the attack on the USS Cole, and then 9/11. The way to get US forces out of Saudi Arabia while avoiding an Iraqi conquest of the peninsula was to smash Iraq.
That had the side effect of making Iran more influential, but the geography and the perpetual cultural difference between Arabs and Persians makes Iran less capable of becoming a true regional hegemon than a strong Iraq.
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