Watching the Dodgers/Red Sox final innings. It is amazing how a manager takes out a pitcher who is loose & dominating through almost 7 innings, Rich Hill of Dodgers, and brings in nervous reliever(s) who get shellacked. 4 run lead gone. Managers do it all the time, big mistake!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 28, 2018
ADDED: Based on the comments, not everyone sees what I think is the obvious metaphor. Trump is talking about himself. He's Rich Hill, in some kind of trouble, but it would be a big mistake if the manager — We, the People — were to take him out. We need to reelect him, because a "nervous reliever" — anyone else we might put in — will "get shellacked." It's just a baseball way to say stay the course or — the usual old-time-y metaphor — don't change horses in midstream.
What's the origin of the phrase 'Don't change horses in midstream'?As for stay the course...
From an 1864 speech by Abraham Lincoln, in reply to Delegation from the National Union League who were urging him to be their presidential candidate. 'An old Dutch farmer, who remarked to a companion once that it was not best to swap horses when crossing streams."
"[S]tay the course" allegedly originated as a nautical metaphor on maintaining a constant, unaltering course while navigating.... Citations from the late 19th century... show the phrase describing horses having the stamina to remain on the course of a racetrack...
The phrase gained a central place in rhetoric due to the publication by journalist Stewart Alsop in his 1973 memoirs of a conversation with Winston Churchill. Alsop related that the British Prime Minister had pondered at the close of World War II, "America, it is a great and strong country, like a workhorse pulling the rest of the world out of despond and despair. But will it stay the course?"....
"Stay the course" was later popularized by Ronald Reagan while campaigning for Republicans during the 1982 mid-term elections, arguing against changes in his economic policies.....
His Vice-President, George H.W. Bush, would later pick up the phrase as an argument for his election as President, both during the primaries and general campaign. His over-use of the phrase was parodied in a Saturday Night Live sketch.
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59 comments:
Nobody knew that until now.
He was right but, of course, the left is outraged because reasons !
Left-wing Baseball fans are Outraged.
Trump MUST be wrong.
Like Trump, I am old enough to remember when a manager would not have removed a pitcher in that circumstance. I suppose the modern analyses says it is the right move given the number of pitches Hill had thrown at that point. I would say that 9 times out of 10 it would have worked out for the Dodgers, but last night wasn't one of those, and that is the only one any one will remember.
Poll the Dodger fans on this one- I bet they are 95/5 in agreement with Trump.
Dodgers in a deep hole now. Can they crawl out?
Rich Hill of Dodgers, and brings in nervous reliever(s) who get shellacked. 4 run lead gone.
The Dodger's chocked like a dog!
I suppose the modern analyses says it is the right move
I don't know if it's "modern analyses" as much as just a proclivity to over-manage, or micromanage, in the postseason. (There's also a bit of 20-20 hindsight.)
Maybe Trump is just talking about his management style: not to micro-manage, just trust his people?
Quick look at Rich Hill's pitching stats confirms what I thought.
24 starts - 132 innings pitched.
NEVER pitched more than 7 innings all year.
Donald Trump, the World's Foremost Authority.
The metaphor works.
Why switch from a starter who is getting results (Republicans) and switch to a reliever (Democrats) who might blow a big lead?
Trump works meta.
There is some interesting commentary at the LA Times about young pitchers being ruined by managers who let them pitch too many innings but I'm not a big baseball fan (Except when my grandson is playing) so I don't know how valid, I do know that Sandy Koufax's career was shortened by pitching too many pitches as a Little Leaguer.
Good advice for the voters.
So the first pitcher is the Republican Congress; the manager is the US voters; and the US economy and politics are the Dodgers.
Did I get the metaphor right?
Maybe that's why he keeps Sessions, who is doing good work. Albeit quietly.
wild chicken,
I predict Sessions is replaced without much fanfare after the midterms, especially is Republicans have 56 or so Senate seats. (I place the over/under at 56 and a half.) He's done some good with the larger cultural issues with the DOJ but those reforms will easily be consolidated under new management.
And that is especially true once Rosenstein and Mueller are relieved of their positions. Rosenstein's threats toward the president (25th Amendment, taping, and threats of obstruction if the Page FOIA lies are revealed) cannot stand. Mueller occupies his position to protect the FBI and DOJ from serious scrutiny and if Republicans lose the House, all efforts at reform must come through Executive Branch action.
Trump will have to appoint an ass kicker who doesn't care about optics. YMMV
Rosenstein's threats toward the president (25th Amendment, taping, and threats of obstruction if the Page FOIA lies are revealed) cannot stand. Mueller occupies his position to protect the FBI and DOJ from serious scrutiny
Yes, that is increasingly clear. If the GOP holds the House, as I expect, watch for mass resignations.
They will flee to leftist law firms and think tanks.
Michael K,
If Republicans hold the House I think they will flee to the prosecutors to offer testimony against their failed co-conspirators. If Democrats do not take the House their respective covers will be blown and they'll be staring down serious investigations by an AG that isn't coerced into an unnecessary recusal.
The indictments (as opposed to strongly worded letters) to follow...
Trump should demand criminal prosecutions of wrongdoers.
pour l'encouragement des autres
Rich Hill is nearly 40 so by all means let his arm fall off. It's the World Series!!!
Most of the time you're not going to blow that lead no matter what you do. The Red Sox averaged 5.46 runs per game this year, or 1.82 runs per 3 innings, other things being equal. So they figured to score around 2 runs in the last three innings and lose 4-2 or 5-2 (since the Dodgers averaged about 1.5 runs per three innings this year). Since they played 18 innings the day before, you might figure they'd be a little less sharp than usual, too.
Playing it the way the LA manager did, Hill will be more fresh for game 7 (or relief if game six goes extra innings) and probably did little to change the odds in game 4.
It's amazing how someone using 20-20 hindsight actually believes he has some special insight.
It coulda been worse. Trump coulda quoted famed baseball analyst Chico Escuela:
"Beisbol bean berry berry good to me"
The trend is your friend.
It's amazing that steve uhr thinks the tweet was about baseball.
Trump demonstrates yet again that he connects with normal Americans. He watches baseball. He complains about stupid managerial decisions. For all his money, just a normal guy.
Of all the professional sports followed in the US, baseball is the one most frequently second-guessed, especially decisions by the manager.
Trump is talking about himself.
We, the People are the manager.
Blogger steve uhr said...
It's amazing how someone using 20-20 hindsight actually believes he has some special insight.
10/28/18, 12:08 PM
You do know "Steve Uhr" that is exactly what sports opinions are for - 20/20 hindsight. You [Steve Uhr]are truly one of the great thinkers of our generation!
Trump has declined to throw out the first pitch as president, not sure why?
He has thrown the fist pitch of games in the past.
Trump is going to appoint more umpires than Bush and Obama combined.
Hari,
And I cannot thank Harry Reid enough.
(eaglebeak)
Trump thinks in baseball terms, breathes baseball, When he was 12, he wrote a poem (!) about baseball, and as a high school (military academy) senior, was scouted by the Phillies and the Red Sox...
And of course AA is right, this is about him.
https://www.complex.com/sports/2016/11/donald-trump-baseball/
We talked about this last night.
And I don't know what is worse -- the self-destructive way that pitching strategy has taken these past several years or the lemmings who spout agreement with it.
Any time you take out a quality starter you turn the game into a coin flip. It's like taking a batter out when he has gone 3 for 3 with two home runs because a different-handed pitcher comes in.
Number of pitches per game or number of innings is not what really matters -- it certainly did not matter for about 100 years of the game. What matters is the destructive pitching style today.
In the near past, Gaylord Perry threw 303 complete games. Steve Carlton 254. Phil Niekro 245. How? Better and safer mechanics.
You know who had very safe mechanics?
Greg Maddox
But a pitcher who doesn't throw 98 these days?
Unthinkable!
I don't always agree with Donald Trump, but I'm 100 percent with him on this.
Michael K said @ 10/28/18, 11:24 AM
"...I do know that Sandy Koufax's career was shortened by pitching too many pitches as a Little Leaguer."
No, you just THINK you know why Koufax's career was shortened - and you're wrong.
Actually, as a kid Koufax mostly played basketball. He didn't play organized youth baseball until age 15 - and even then he was a catcher before moving to first base. He didn't start pitching regularly until age 17.
The primary cause of his arthritic elbow was the constant hyper-extension caused by overthrowing every pitch early in his professional career (which started in 1955 - he didn't start having sustained success until ~1961) - the condition was exacerbated in August 1964 when he jammed his pitching arm diving back into second base to beat a pick-off throw... the traumatic arthritis diagnosis came shortly thereafter.
Heh my far left wing brother texted me the same thing last night. He will be horrified to hear he and Trump think alike.
Nolan Ryan says, “I’m not a doctor and I’m not a scientist. All I am is a guy who threw over 5,000 innings. . . I really believe we don’t condition our pitchers for what they are asked to do. And because of that, I think we increase our chances of injury on them.
“I believe when an organization puts those kind of random restrictions on their pitching staff, they don’t take advantage and utilize the talent that they have. I think everybody has a pitch limit, but I think also you can tell when a guy’s reached his pitch limit by watching him. That’s what pitching coaches used to do. Now they look at the number of pitches and at around 100, they get somebody up and that pitcher comes out of the game no matter whether he’s having an exceptionally good game or if he struggled. Obviously, they put pitch limits to try to protect people, but I think it’s worked just the opposite."
Trump has a bigger argument here: he’s arguing in favor of intuition over data-driven decision making. I’m with him on the base point: leave the pitcher in, pitch count be damned. This is the World Series, for gosh sakes. The guy has all winter to recuperate.
But on the bigger argument, I’m not sure. But he did campaign in the Rust Belt and that sure paid dividends.
In 2005, there were 50 major league pitchers that threw 200 innings. In 2010, there were 45. In 2015, there were 28.
In 2016 and in 2017, there were 15 each season.
Stats are about averages and probabilities. Most or Very many pitchers shouldn't throw more than x number of pitches.
but it ignores that some pitchers "get hot" at times, and should stay in "past their pitch count"
Manage the people not the Numbers
AJ Lynch said... [hush][hide comment]
Heh my far left wing brother texted me the same thing last night. He will be horrified to hear he and Trump think alike..
The Reddit baseball thread had Trump haters agreeing with Trump last night. Kinda like ol' Chuck here: "I hate the guy but he was right about ....(something)"
Koufax had a very odd career.
For six years, he was a wild pitcher, with a below average ERA.
Then for two years, he was a very good pitcher but not as good as Drysdale.
And then suddenly for his last 4 years, he was probably the best pitcher in BB.
He pitched about 90 complete games in his last 4 years.
"Koufax had a very odd career.
For six years, he was a wild pitcher, with a below average ERA."
Old Koufax joke: Koufax could throw a baseball thru a barn door....if he could hit the barn door!
Wasn't this a situation where intuition should take precedent over a rule?
The pitcher was in a groove. He had a chance to win the game. He knew the batters and he still seemed fresh. Why not leave him in? He's the person most motivated to win this most important game of the season.
He pitched about 90 complete games in his last 4 years.
But that wasn't so unusual in those days. Spahn and Marichal had a similar number of complete games over four-year periods. A few years later Mickey Lolich had 96 over four years.
rcocean said @ 10/28/18, 3:08 PM...
He (Koufax) pitched about 90 complete games in his last 4 years.
True... but it wasn't that uncommon for top pitchers of that era to throw 20 or more complete games a season. Marichal, Gibson, and Ferguson Jenkins all threw nearly 100 complete games in 4 year spans during the 1960s into the early 1970s. Warren Spahn completed 20+ games three times (1961-63) in his 40s! (23-7 with a 2.60 ERA in 1963)
That was sort of a golden era for starting pitchers - that consequently led to MLB lowering the mound after 1968 when Denny McClain won 31 games and Gibson went 22-9 with a 1.12 ERA (28 CGs)
Based on the comments, not everyone sees what I think is the obvious metaphor. Trump is talking about himself. He's Rich Hill, in some kind of trouble, but it would be a big mistake if the manager — We, the People — were to take him out.
Then again, he could just be tweeting about a baseball game. I don't see him as being in any sort of trouble.
“What's the origin of the phrase 'Don't change horses in midstream'?”
Whenever I hear that phrase I can’t help but recall a joke campaign slogan of the early 70’s
Don’t change dicks in the middle of a screw; vote for Nixon in ‘72.
(I don’t recal who the other “dick” might have been.)
I don't see how you get to your metaphor ...
If anything midterm results would mean change manager or take out one team.
So Althouse is thinking that DJT is telling the GOP to not replace him w/ Pence, because Pence would choke v the Ds.
Althouse is funny. Her jabber about all the people being the manager doesn't fit. Duh.
No, you just THINK you know why Koufax's career was shortened - and you're wrong.
OK, the guy who wrote that and whose writing I read doesn't know as much as you do, whoever you are.
Got it.
not everyone sees what I think is the obvious metaphor
Happens a lot, doesn't it?
From the story I linked above --
Koufax, a Hall of Famer who pitched 311 innings for the Dodgers in 1963, was diagnosed with an arthritic left elbow the following year. “It started in 1964,’’ he said recently from Los Angeles. Koufax threw “only” 223 innings that year, a high number by today’s standards, before bouncing back with a league-leading 335 2⁄3 and 323 innings in his final two seasons.
Koufax, 80, said the pain intensified through his remaining seasons, eventually leading to early retirement at age 30 after he went 27-9 with a 1.73 earned run average in 1966. . . . Tommy John, who in 1974 became the first pitcher to have the ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction surgery that bears his name, said the late Dr. Frank Jobe told him that he believed that Koufax might have had the same problem. . . .
During Koufax’s era, pitching with pain was commonplace. “If it’s a serious injury, you can’t perform,’’ Koufax said. “If it’s an injury that you can still perform, nobody would admit it. Now, because there are so few pitchers, they’re trying to protect everybody, trying to keep them as long as they can. I think medical science moved far past what we had. Nobody remade shoulders, nobody did elbows."
Time once again to recall the couplet found long ago etched on the wall of a "closet" in the basement of the Texas Tech engineering building.
Don't change Dicks in the middle of a screw;
Vote for Nixon in '72.
But to be clear, Mr. Pres. DJT is the cure for a social disease we nationally are only just beginning to accept being infected with. - HMG
to Phil 3:14 -
Perhaps I should learn to read the comments before just jumping in; or maybe
not spend so much time struggling with phrasing to avoid ending a sentence with a preposition.
- HMG
I thought he was making a different analogy.
He's a smart manager, not like those losers in baseball or in Congress who would throw Kavanaugh overboard and get some shaky reliever instead.
And he's not throwing Sessions out and replacing him with some shaky reliever. And he's not throwing out Mattis. And he's not...etc.
WARD Churchill?
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