"Among likely voters (that is, those who say they are certain to vote), incumbent Republican Scott Walker receives 46 percent, Democrat Tony Evers receives 46 percent... Among likely voters in the race for the Wisconsin U.S. Senate seat on the ballot in November, 49 percent support the incumbent, Democrat Tammy Baldwin, and 47 percent support Republican Leah Vukmir.... Evers is viewed favorably among 38 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 27 percent.... Vukmir has a 30 percent favorable rating and a 29 percent unfavorable rating among likely voters... Walker is viewed favorably among 49 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 47 percent... Baldwin has a 46 percent favorable rating and a 42 percent unfavorable rating among likely voters...."
Marquette Law School press release.
August 23, 2018
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73 comments:
I'm always expecting Wisconsin to be more like Minnesota, and surprised Republicans poll so well (of course, the opposite movers Scott and Vukmir don't quite back up that last observation). It's just one poll, but Baldwin seems to be collapsing.
Polls.
But Walker is going to lose, Inga has it all figured out. All Republicans going to lose.
Inga...Allie Oop said...
250,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted in the Minnesota Primary yesterday.
In Wisconsin, 81,000 more Democrats voted than Republicans.
8/15/18, 9:50 PM
"Fifty-three percent of Wisconsin registered voters see the state as headed in the right direction while 41 percent think the state is off on the wrong track. In July, 52 percent said right direction and 42 percent said wrong track"
Good luck Democrats.
Things might change after Evers begins advocating the establishment of sanctuary cities in Wisconsin.
Walker needn't worry, Putin has his back, I am assured.
If any R wins, it will be Russian meddling.
Isthmus had Tammy Baldwin as Wonder Woman on their cover recently. Personally, I’m at a loss as to what she has done in the Senate.
– Republicans alone say the economy is in positive shape. . Poll result.
Well, if they manage to win, they may find out what a bad economy looks like sooner than quicker.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQIMDTjHB6A
Blogger tim maguire said...
"...Baldwin seems to be collapsing."
Baldwin has been all but invisible for 5 1/2 years. There's not much there to collapse.
Things will get ugly for her down the stretch when the Tomah VA fiasco is thrown at her.
"sooner than quicker"
You must teach English to trolls.
”– Republicans alone say the economy is in positive shape. . Poll result.”
Wow. How intellectually dishonest do you have to be to claim/believe the ecomomy is poor?
If you're Republican and you respond to polls, especially phone polls, let us know here.
I'm not in Wisconsin but I'm so used to hanging up on landline calls from people I don't know, I just hang up on them. My vote doesn't count for anything anywhere until it shows up on election day. How would that kind of activity skew between parties?
Even if Evers tinkers, he has no chance.
If the polls are accurate at all, they are accurate a week or two out from the election.
Otherwise, polls aren't meant to tell us who will win. They are meant to influence us on who we should vote for.
My impression of the Marquette poll is that, historically, it has overestimated Democrat strength. I think Walker will win, and hopefully Vukmir too.
About half of people who can don't vote at all. This makes polling tough in the first place- you have to determine who will actually show up. Of course, they try to control for this by asking the respondents if they voted in past elections, but it is probably embarrassing to say you don't vote at all.
However, given the press coverage, these results should encourage Republicans and discourage Democrats.
"Wow. How intellectually dishonest do you have to be to claim/believe the ecomomy is poor?"
-- I mean, we don't have a UBI of a Living Wage. So. You know. We're basically killing people with capitalism.
538 gives the Marquette Law pollster an A grade.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers stick.
Late Summer in Wisconsin is not a time to think about Politics. The weather is beautiful, the tomatoes ripe, and the sweet corn crispy to the bite. I had a basil and tomato sandwich last night. Delicious.
I figure a Poll in mid-September might be more accurate.
”538 gives the Marquette Law pollster an A grade.”
You mean the guy who got the 2016 election wrong?
Why would anyone not vote for Walker?
I'm in Michigan, and afraid Whitmer is going to win for Governor. How can anyone want a female Democrat back in as Governor? Compare Granholm to Snyder, the current Governor. Why would anyone want to put Dem leadership back? It baffles me.
”It baffles me.”
Me too.
"Compare Granholm to Snyder, the current Governor. Why would anyone want to put Dem leadership back? It baffles me."
You should get the opinion of someone with a deep, deep understanding of Michigan politics. Perhaps Chuck could refer you to such a person.
RealClearPolitics just moved WI Senate race from "likely" Dem down to "Leans" Dem.
I'm in Wisconsin. I hung up on a Gallup pollster last week. I was in the middle of something and couldn't be bothered.
I'm voting for Walker and Vukmir.
Eight reasons the headwinds facing Republicans might not be so strong. Number four pretty much covers it, especially in WI.
In WI how long to you have to be in office before you're granted historic preservation status? Perhaps that's just a Massachusetts thing. MA really likes historic...
I figure a Poll in mid-September might be more accurate.
what about Polls on the necessity for bacon in BLTs?
It's Walker - in a walk.
One thing that Evers and Baldwin have in common (IMO) is that they seem to be reactive rather than proactive. Tammy with "Jason's Law" and Evers (well, really, the WI Legislature) with Act 48. And Evers is in the pocket of the educational unions which supported his run for DPI Superintendent, so if elected we can expect him to roll back Act 10 as much as possible. He wouldn't go on record in the primaries about boosting gasoline taxes or making toll roads in WI but the buzz is that he is warm to both ideas.
'm in Michigan, and afraid Whitmer is going to win for Governor.
The mission of the press is to suppress Republican turnout and gin up Democrat turnout. In 2000, enough respondents in a poll of Marquette University students, not extrapolation, but actual respondents to the survey, reported fraudulently voting for Gore to deny Bush the state. Universities don't believe in objective truth, so don't be surprised if they are not actually looking for it.
Turnout guesses control polls. And they guess Dems will turn out this time. But that does not factor in Loyal Deplorables coming out in droves again. That damn Trump has a monopoly on authenticity.
Turnout guesses control polls
This is my biggest criticism of polling and I've yet to hear a viable explanation as to why it isn't the case. You can give Hillary all of Obama's voters but how hard is it to understand some of them aren't going to show up for Hillary?
Good News!
...In the ruling, U.S. District Judge Reed O'Connor ruled that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) had unlawfully required six states — Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, Texas, and Wisconsin — to foot the bill for health care providers, paying a fee that Obamacare clearly exempted them from....
"sooner than quicker"
You must teach English to trolls.
Since they don’t mean the same thing, what’s the issue?
I don’t say, “I’m going quick.”
On Tuesday, a federal district court judge in Texas ordered the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to return more than $839 million that bureaucrats effectively stole from six states in a violation of the plain text of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.
That’s a nice piece of windfall.
Texas alone got $300 million.
These are the saddest of possible words:
"Tinker to Evers to Chance."
Trio of bear cubs, and fleeter than birds,
Tinker and Evers and Chance.
Ruthlessly pricking our gonfalon[a] bubble,
Making a Giant hit into a double[b] –
Words that are heavy with nothing but trouble:
"Tinker to Evers to Chance."
a...A gonfalon is a pennant or flag, referring in this context to the National League title.
b... "Hitting a double" in baseball means a two-base hit, but "hitting into a double" refers to hitting into a double play (two outs on a single play), most commonly accomplished by a ground ball hit to the shortstop (Tinker) thrown to the second baseman (Evers) to force the runner out who had been on first base and then thrown to first base (Chance) to complete the play.
RCP has Baldwin polls at +17 and +14 in July and a new poll now at +2.
How do you go from +17 and +14 to +2 in a month, unless, polls this far out are just trash?
Big Mike said...
My impression of the Marquette poll is that, historically, it has overestimated Democrat strength
All polls have, and do.
Republicans don't answer phone polls.
It is either the Academy or the Media and in general, our tribe likes neither of them.
So I would guess about a 5 point underrep of 'Pubs. Which makes this poll poison to Dems.
eric said...How do you go from +17 and +14 to +2 in a month, unless, polls this far out are just trash?
Caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl?
Polls only exist to generate a Democratic victory.
Dems need to see a big lead or else they will stay home.
When you see a close poll, it means the Dem is way behind, but the pollster can't afford to lose all credibility by showing a huge lead.
What's the oversampling of Democrats in the poll Or did someone already answer that?
BTW, Trumpit, check your Proper English privilege.
Even if Evers tinkers, he has no chance.
Well played.
I would think a close poll is a scare tactic to gin up more Democrat shows.
But I could be wrong.
Another sick burn by Trumpit.
Wisconsin has grown tired of this career politician even his appointees are banding ship and writing tell-all books like the Unethical LifeL Life in Scott Walker's Cabinet and the Dirty Side of Politics.
roesch/voltaire said...
Wisconsin has grown tired of this career politician
Another serial killer heard from.
If you want higher taxes, sanctuary cities, anemic enonomic growth and public employee unions back in charge, then vote for Evers.
Incumbents below 50% are at risk.
Both incumbents have significant opportunity to improve, mainly by mistakes of the opponent.
They're known quantities.
I would trade a Walker loss for a Vukmir win, each day, every day.
Two interesting races. R's seem in pretty good shape.
D governor candidate looks too old and worn out to win and Walker is pretty good at figuring out how to win.
The R in the senate with as good favorability as Baldwin seems well positioned as well.
Be interesting to see Ann keeping an eye on the races.
"Even if Evers tinkers, he has no chance."
Darrell is channeling his inner Paul Zrimsek. Well done.
"are banding ship"
Close enough.
Baldwin's lead collapsed because the Republicans finally settled on a single candidate. There was a primary. Walker was behind a generic Democrat. Generic Democrat is no longer on the poll, so the Democrat lead evaporated.
Polls before the opponents are known are ridiculous.
I have often thought that citizens vote for Republicans to fix the mess that Democrats made (e.g., Reagan after Carter, Trump after Obama, Walker after Doyle). However, once that mess is fixed, a certain percentage goes back to the Democrats for all the free stuff and cronyism they offer.
If Walker loses, I will feel that this theory has been empirically supported.
At the end of October 2014 Real Clear Politics average of polls showed Walker @ +2.2 over Burke. The range during the month of October was -1 to +7 (Marquette).
The vote was Walker +5.7 on Election Day.
" MadTownGuy said...
He wouldn't go on record in the primaries about boosting gasoline taxes or making toll roads in WI but the buzz is that he is warm to both ideas."
I'm against raising gas taxes but toll roads sound great to me. Use the Interstates, pay the fee. Don't use them, don't pay. It's perfectly democratic. Having lived in and around Chicago my whole life before moving to WI I'm used to them. The only objection I ever had to them was the inevitable traffic snarl but EZ Pass fixed that.
The roads up here are really bad. Eventually WI taxpayers are gonna have to pay to fix them. I like the idea of all the tourists who come up from Illinois or over from MN having to chip in.
Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...
If you want higher taxes, sanctuary cities, anemic enonomic growth and public employee unions back in charge, then vote for Evers.
Sanctuary cities are a mayoral thing. Neither Evers nor anybody else is bringing the public unions back. The people have spoken, repeatedly. That'd guarantee a single term and would be Act 11'd the second whoever implements it is run out of town on a rail.
"The roads up here are really bad. Eventually WI taxpayers are gonna have to pay to fix them. I like the idea of all the tourists who come up from Illinois or over from MN having to chip in."
I have been traveling to Wisconsin frequently for the last 40 years. (I was born there). Compared to Illinois (where I grew up), Iowa (where I lived for several years) and Arizona (where I now live), the roads do not seem much different, except in Illinois where they are constantly jammed due to construction (i.e, thanks to kickbacks from construction contractors and unions).
Illinois takes money from tourists by having very high tolls, but 50% discounts for people who have the I-Pass. Maybe that's an idea Wisconsin needs to consider.Be careful, at some point, tourists decide to go elsewhere.
”Be careful, at some point, tourists decide to go elsewhere.”
Fewer Illinoians up north? Works for me.
"Fewer Illinoians up north? Works for me."
LOL! I used not go up to Door County a lot in the 80's and 90's. Shopkeepers commonly complained about those annoying people from Minnesota.
I wonder if they told the Minnesotans that those people from Illinois were annoying.
Uff Da!
Evers will find the secret routers.
He has it in the bag.
I will be interested to see how the polls are presented a few weeks out in Wisconsin.
The movement to red will only pick up speed as their economy flourishes.
It will also be interesting to see how the aristocracy deals with the reality that there will be 60 republican senators +/-5 from here on out.
Known Unknown said...
"Even if Evers tinkers, he has no chance."
Darrell is channeling his inner Paul Zrimsek. Well done.
I love everything about this comment.
Inga...Allie Oop said...
250,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted in the Minnesota Primary yesterday.
Minnesota has an open primary where you do not declare your party affiliation. You just vote one side or the other on a paper ballot. Shhhh. I voted for Keith Ellison. Good luck in the general Keith.
Predictions of a tight race always means the Republican will win.
Polls show democrats winning; democrats are enthused with excitement that the world is finally seeing the right way to do things; republicans win; demonstrates further evidence of Russian tampering.
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