"... especially in the National League, placed great emphasis on the running game, on bunting men over—on scratching a single run from an infield single, a stolen base, a bunt, and a sacrifice fly. Earl thought that required too many things to go right for a maximum reward of a single run. He preferred to encourage his hitters to work the count, to take walks, and then, with a man or two on base, swing for the fences. If you followed that strategy, he believed, you had a far better chance of putting three runs on the board than the run-scratchers had of putting up a singleton.... In my instinctive contrarianism I grew deeply attached to this way of playing baseball, so you can easily imagine how I felt when, in my twenties, I started reading... Bill James’s Baseball Abstract. For James’s early and profoundly influential exercises in sabermetrics... proved pretty conclusively that Earl was right all along, and those guys scrabbling for one run at a time were just chasing a losing hand. I felt vindicated, and even more so as the years went by and sabermetrics grew more detailed and sophisticated. Earl Weaver was in a way the patron saint of sabermetrics, and I was happy to bask in the reflection of his glory. What makes this a problem is that, as boxing fans have always known, styles make fights. What made Earl’s Way so fascinating all those years ago was its distinctiveness; and that’s what made the arguments among fans fun too. As fascinating as the sabermetrics revolution in baseball has been—and I cheered it on for decades, following James and the other pioneers with passionate intensity—the comprehensiveness of its victory has simply made baseball less enjoyable to watch, for me anyway. Strangely enough, baseball was better when we knew less about the most effective way to play it...."
Writes Alan Jacobs in "Giving Up On Baseball" (Weekly Standard).
And there's the trouble with rationality, in a nutshell. At some point, you may ask yourself, why bother at all? And the rational answer is: Don't bother! The whole wonderful, fascinating thing was irrational, and if it's going to be rational, what's to love?
Now, this makes me think of a scene in the Werner Herzog documentary "Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World," in which we see robots programmed to play soccer:
If you watched that to the end — and maybe you didn't, because robots playing soccer... why bother? — you heard Herzog ask the young man holding one of the robots, "Do you love it?," and the man answered yes. So is the perfectly rational thing lovable? Well, the man loves the robot he's making. But he's experimenting and creating. He's not just a spectator. And I'm watching a Werner Herzog documentary because I love things like the moment when he gets the scientist to experience awareness of his love and to express it.
July 17, 2018
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Ann Althouse: You have revealed the secret that would remove the necessity to watch the debates between Sam Harris and Jordan Peterson, and your analysis fits so beautifully in a nutshell. In fact, you’ve made the nutshell a little jewel case where your nugget of truth resides in all its simple beauty - the problem with rationalism - it doesn’t go anywhere we want to go.
I first read Bill James' Baseball Abstracts in 1984 when a friend recommended him. It changed my manner of thinking about a lot of things, not just baseball.
It's not irrational. There are facts supporting all the conventions of baseball, just not ones you think of unless somebody points them out.
Cavell Claim of Reason on baseball conventions.
It changed my manner of thinking about a lot of things, not just baseball.
Me too!
I can't really disagree with Mr. Jacobs. There is a lot more standing around in the modern game and I expect some rule changes (or a change to the ball) may be needed to address that. I grew up in the era of Rickey Henderson and for many years he was to me, the most exciting player in baseball.
That said, I wonder if a Mr. Jacobs from 100 years ago would be bemoaning Babe Ruth and the advent of the lively ball. No more the sharp-eyed skill of softly hitting the ball where the fielders ain't. Instead the behemoth swing.
Do you really want to broach the topic of reason vs emotion.Required reading: bacon, hobbs, hume, descartes, rousseau, kant, hegel, ad nauseum.
All those bearded "intelligensia" still can't bury the Bible.
"It's not irrational. There are facts supporting all the conventions of baseball, just not ones you think of unless somebody points them out."
What does "it" refer to? The question is whether baseball is worth watching now as opposed to before.
If MLB wants to make the game more interesting, mandate that teams can only carry 10 pitchers on their rosters.
The current trend of carrying 13 pitchers has led to one 6' 6" guy after another throwing as hard as he can for a few outs.
Carrying only 10 pitchers would mean that teams would be carrying 3 more position players.;
The Sabermetrics thing can be played to an idiot extreme. The shifts against guys like Anthony Rizzo (a dead pull power hitter) are so extreme that the opposition is giving him a bunt single if he'll only take it. You can still hit for power after you force the opposition to play you straight up.
And, of course, it's long past time for electronic ball and strike calls. A consistent strike zone will increase contact and batting averages.
Baseball was enjoyed so much by the WWII generation, both before and after the war, and by a fair percentage of that generation's kids, not because it was so great in and of itself. No, baseball had fans simply because there was nothing else.
With the coming of so many time-wasting alternatives, baseball has found, as water will do, its own level. And it's nowhere near the top.
if it's going to be rational, what's to love?
Western Civilization and the modern world.
Jacobs loved watching baseball before, when he was watching something that not everyone was doing and that he believed was countercultural. When analysis showed that thing was, in fact, rational, and the analysis convinced the other teams to do it too and that was done conventionally, it wasn't enjoyable to watch anymore.
That's what the article says, and you say "It's not irrational." What's not irrational?!
If MLB wants to make the game more interesting, mandate that teams can only carry 10 pitchers on their rosters.
Ditch the DH and automatic timeouts granted to the batters.
It's sort of like romance, right?
Who in the hell wants that to be rational?
(Of course, I've met people who do.)
There are facts supporting all the conventions of baseball
That reads like a tautology to me. There are facts supporting all the facts and conventions supporting all the conventions.
The question is, given the conventions, what is the best way to win the game? The entire field of sabrmetrics starts with James' observation that the conventional stats of average, RBIs, runs, ERA, or wins were not measuring the actual skills that won games.
If baseball is hard to watch, then listen.
I almost never watch baseball and never have. I listen to games a lot.
Those things aren't robots, this is a robot.
Some of us manage to enjoy both 'styles' of baseball.
However - as a National League fan - I'd much rather watch a 3-2 game in 2:41 than 12-11 in 4:27.
I'm not convinced by the argument that baseball has achieved "peak rationality" and is thus boring. Just in the last five years or so, we've seen massive trends - pitch framing, three true outcomes, shifts - on a scale that we've never seen before. Teams are experimenting with starting relievers, we've got legitimate two-way players, and Mike Trout is having one of the greatest careers ever. The subtleties of defensive skill are being appreciated, and new data like exit velocity and angle and pitch rotations are changing careers. Not to mention, evaluating young talent and attaching the right price tag and contract length to said talent is a more interesting and important question than ever. I think we're in the middle of an evolutionary leap, not the end.
He's right that baseball is evolving, driven by "rational" arguments. But he's basically saying that we've reached Nash equilibrium, whereas the rapid evolution of the last few years suggests anything but. There's still plenty of room for iconoclasts (Joe Maddon is still doing it, as are others), and even if one day we do achieve perfect rational Nash equilibrium, it'll only take a very subtle change in the rules (e.g. the limit on ten pitchers mentioned above) to throw everything massively out of equilibrium. What if we see a massive influx of Japanese and other Asian league professionals? What does having an Ichiro or two (type of player, not at his same talent level) on each team do to this equilibrium?
Basketball has been going through this in a massive way the last decade or so too, and the Warriors have shown we're a long way from any sort of equilibrium. It's more noticeable in basketball because just one player moving teams can so radically alter team destinies and strategies in a way they can't in baseball, but it's still happening in baseball.
Of course, what's really winning games now is the tanking strategy pioneered by GM Theo Epstein of the Cubs.
Dump all your veteran players over the age 25, and lose as many games as possible for 3 or 4 years so that you can store up high draft picks. Worked for the Cubs. And, now for the Astros. The White Sox are currently in full tanking mode.
Both leagues are now completely divided, half of the teams trying to win and half deliberately trying to lose.
The tanking strategy has also taken quite a toll on the free agent market. Most free agents are 30 or over, which is slightly past prime. You're better off stocking up on 24 year old prospects and buying a 30 year old loaner if you actually have a chance to advance in the playoffs. The 30 year old free agent will want a 5 year contract and he might be useful for only 2 or 3 years. But you still have to pay him $25 million a year for the full term of the contract.
The idea seems to be that part of the fun of baseball was seeing different philosophies and strategies from different managers and players. Once a single one gains primacy, that aspect is gone. Plus that winning strategy means more walks, strikeouts, HRs, so fewer balls in play. On the first point, the game is always evolving, so nothing is really settled. On the second, I wouldn't mind if they deadened the ball a bit to reduce HRs, and maybe that would lead to more hitters wanting (just) to make contact.
There was a similar story about golf recently, how golfers no longer care that much about hitting the fairway. They just club the ball as far as possible, which is a lot farther than before thanks to technology.
"I love things like the moment when he gets the scientist to experience awareness of his love and to express it."
Yes, without Herzog no scientist could experience such awareness or express it.
Basketball has been going through this in a massive way the last decade or so too, and the Warriors have shown we're a long way from any sort of equilibrium.
I've found the NBA to be completely unwatchable. The mid-range game is completely gone, and now we're stuck watching teams go 9 for 43 from beyond the arc.
Then again, I think the three-point line is a gimmick and has ruined the game. Why not draw another line further out and make it four? And then five? Makes just as much sense.
"I've found the NBA to be completely unwatchable. The mid-range game is completely gone," If it doesn't win you games, it should be gone.
"and now we're stuck watching teams go 9 for 43 from beyond the arc." As opposed to college, where you can watch kids hit 9 of 43 from wherever.
"Then again, I think the three-point line is a gimmick and has ruined the game" Sure, if you don't like spacing, and player movement, and team work to create the open shot, and the increased pressure of making difficult shots from distance, and seven-foot guys mastering all skills, and the challenge to teams to counter the Warriors/D'Antoni-style strategy, it gets pretty boring.
Jim at,
I agree, and disagree with your assessment of the 3-point line. I'm an old ABA fan, so I like the line - for pro basketball. I don't think it has any place in college, or especially high school.
The mid-range game would still be played at the pro level if it was being taught at the developmental level. Alex English killed at the mid-range game.
My husband and I are big baseball fans. (Cubs fans, specifically.) We get the MLB package to watch games, we attend games, we buy the merch. But we've talked for hours about how sad we are about the decline of baseball. Sabermetrics (and as an aside, what a ridiculous, pompous name for baseball stat analysis) has nearly ruined the game. Baseball is supposed to be entertainment, but sabermetrics has made it boring. The fans are bored, the commentators are bored, I think even the players are bored. If the baseball powers that be want to save their sport, they'll have to change the rules to incentivize a more old-fashioned style of play. (But the Union opposes almost every significant change unfortunately.) The best parts of baseball are explosive action: stolen bases, diving catches, and collisions at home. If nothing significant changes, we'll be reading in 30 years about how Bill James killed baseball. I hope not.
Baseball is highly watchable when your team's in the hunt.
I like sabermetrics, and the idea that there are valuable skills that are there for cheap, if you know what to look for.
Still, it often comes down to supreme talent over lots of advantages on the margins. It don't matter that Babe Ruth's Base Running with 2 outs and less than 3 runs behind on September afternoons with 72.3% humidity is 17% below replacement value. Babe Ruth was still Babe f'in Ruth.
I have some sympathy for the argument that a ball hit out of the park should be an out. Home runs are boring. Most power hitters are crappy all-around players. Good entertaining baseball consists of exactly what he derides--smart aggressive play that turns doing the little things right into points.
"Alex English killed at the mid-range game." But his team would get killed by opponents with a Klay Thompson, J.J. Reddick, or Kevin Durant. And Alex English would have killed more from behind the arc.
Anyway, the 3-pointer adds drama, forces players to raise their skill level (also on defense), and makes team movement and team defense more complicated.
Alex English killed at the mid-range game.
I loved watching him play and applied a lot to my game by doing so.
All he needed to do was free up his shooting hand and he could score.
Ice was similar in the same vein.
The more predictable a sport or game becomes, the more boring or pointless, like tic tac toe. The only way to gain an unpredictable advantage is if someone screws up.
In the history of the FIFA World Cup final tournament, going back to 1930, there have been only 53 own goals out of 2500 goals in total (2%). 12 of these own goals--more than 20%--happened this year. There were 169 goals scored in total this year, so the 12 own goals represented about 7% of all the goals. I would think teams are getting better at preventing "regular" goals, so own goals become more important as a source of goals in a very low-scoring sport.
I haven't found baseball to be more boring post Bill James. Hasn't it always been a slow game?
I don't recall a season where the gap between good teams and bad has been so large. The bad teams are really really bad.
I wrote several weeks ago that baseball is always evolving. You can't have a team's hitters swinging for the fences with men on if they can't succeed with that a certain percentage of the time- not every team has a Frank Robinson, Eddie Murray, and/or Cal Ripken. A manager makes do with what he has at his disposal. Sabermetrics is driving baseball in a certain direction, but here is the thing- the game isn't static- someone will figure out a way to counter that development- players (pitchers, fielders, and hitters) will come along that find defenses for this, and the game will again change.
I have lost interest in the game as I grown older and stopped playing even softball, but one of the beauties of the game is exactly the ebb and flow- I am old enough to have seen the cycle more than once. I also remind people of this- Weaver won exactly one World Series- 1970- and most of his managerial career was conducted in during the rise of the small ball era.
A good manager finds a way to win with what he has. Earl Weaver's three-run homer approach worked in Memorial Stadium. The National League was more focused on small ball and speed because so many NL stadiums had deep fences and rock-hard artificial surfaces (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Montreal, St. Louis, Houston). All of those stadiums have been replaced by stadiums that favor the long ball.
What I dislike are managers or coaches with systems that they impose on teams with little regard for whether they are right for the players they have or the place where they play. This has messed up many NFL and NBA teams in recent years.
And Eric is correct- the stadiums have greatly changed in the last quarter century to favor the long ball approach.
"Alex English killed at the mid-range game."
Kevin Durant kills at the mid-range game.
" Baseball is supposed to be entertainment, but sabermetrics has made it boring."
That's what you think.
Baseball is still the greatest sport on the radio. A good announcer can describe every pitch and every swing of the bat in a way you can visualize without having to leave out any important parts of the action. You don't get that with football or basketball. And golf, does anyone ever listen to golf on the radio?
I originally came here to post that this clip features my alma mater, Carnegie Mellon.
In fact, this particular clip is probably the Carnegie Mellonest video clip of all time.
Teller said: "Baseball is highly watchable when your team's in the hunt."
I have a renewed interest this year, based on watching last year's World Series and with the Braves finally doing well this season. I don't think they will win the NL pennant - them may not win the East- but at least they have some good young players and are competitive again. And their farm system is supposed to loaded with good players coming up. Also have a nice, new ballpark.
A few years ago I got to attend a meeting where Billy Bean gave the keynote address, showing a lot of interesting sabremetrics and discussing how they have affected baseball, both in game management as well as in signing and developing players. And Earl Weaver was right about how to play the game. The sacrifice bunt is the dumbest play in baseball. Billy showed some stats over the history of baseball for the "expected runs scored" from each base given the number of outs. The value is always higher for a man on first with 0 outs than for a man on second with 1 out; higher for a man on first with 1 out than a man on second with 2 outs; and so on. This has been true for as long as baseball has been played.
And I don't agree what someone said above that power hitters are crappy all around players. Babe Ruth was an outstanding pitcher. I've gotten to see a lot of great players in person over the years - Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and Roberto Clemente to name just a few of dozens - and not only were they great hitters but were great on the bases and in the field, too. Certainly not crappy. And some of the most dramatic plays in the history of baseball have been home runs.
"Baseball is still the greatest sport on the radio."
Are they cloning Vin Scully? Someone better clone Vin Scully.
Simpsons did it best:
"I'm Bill James, and I made watching baseball as exciting as doing your taxes!"
And golf, does anyone ever listen to golf on the radio?
At the US Open at Chambers Bay in 2015, spectators were given free earpieces in order to hear the satellite broadcast.
Surprisingly, it was a great way to follow the action all over the course ... because it was nearly impossible to follow it physically. It was better than I would've thought.
Are they cloning Vin Scully? Someone better clone Vin Scully.
The greatest. One of the best things about Extra Innings/MLB.TV was getting Dodger games as a fan of the Dodgers .... and listening to Vin Scully as a fan of baseball.
John Miller (for the Giants) is one of the last of that breed. Still calls a great game over the air.
Herzog on AI should be fun. Building robots to compete with human FIFA players seems of a piece with dragging steamships over rain forest hills to make movies about men who dragged steamships over rain forest hills, and then built belle epoque opera houses in the middle of Amazon. It's all a wonder.
So teams are studying the game more closely now, and they're doing shifts, and batters are trying to lift the ball, etc. Baseball isn't chess, though. You can beat the shift and you can pitch against guys trying to hit home runs. Jose Altuve is smaller than I am and was a legitimate MVP last year. He beat out giant Aaron Judge. I don't understand Jacobs' point at all. Now there are good teams and better teams, or rather, teams that play well and smart and teams that play better and/or smarter. Small ball makes sense again when the entire infield and the left fielder are all to the right of 2nd base. Humbug.
Javier Baez swings at every projectile in the general vicinity of the plate and adds value to his team. Try finding a rational way to pitch and defend this guy. Bill James got me interested in statistics and that interest got me out of the humanities and into economics in college, so it had a big effect on my life too. But the game is different every few years, it's not a generational thing.
BTW, I enjoyed the documentary Burden of Dreams about the making of Fitzcarraldo even more than the film itself. Maybe Herzog will make a baseball film one day.
I can fix baseball... but first, let me fix:
Basketball: Give each team 100 points, and then put two minutes on the clock.
Golf: Add 150 yards to every hole, and make the cup a foot wide.
Baseball: Pitchers get a 7 pitches per batter. If the batter isn't struck out or gets a hit, he walks.
The problem with the mid-range game in basketball is that it's a terrible play for the offense. The issue is that basketball's scoring structure (two points or three points) isn't finely tuned enough. We now know that a 3-point shot is about 30 percent harder to make than a mid-range jumper. But you get 50 percent more points for it. The 2-pointer is just a bad mathematical deal. That's why the Warriors/Rockets style is taking over: information.
"The problem with the mid-range game in basketball is that it's a terrible play for the offense."
I don't disagree. The numbers bear it out.
Which is why I've never been a fan of the three-point shot. Why not spread the offenses and defenses some more - if that's what people want - and add a four-point shot? Why stop there?
Or for that matter, put up walls 40 feet behind the current ones and give 1.5 runs for every ball hit over them?
That's why the Warriors/Rockets style is taking over: information.
Which is why I find it unwatchable. Other's mileage may vary.
Less players per starting roster. Don't care if it is baseball or hockey. For baseball, why invent seventh inning left handed relievers? You want more all round players - have less guys.
I alao agree with up thread that I may not watch baseball much but I do listen when driving from a to b. Same with hockey to some degree. Not the same as watching it live or on tv, but in some ways, it works.
Custodian at work listening to jays game last week said the announcer was going on about the likelihood of seeing some middle reliever "it's doubtful, cause he threw 14 pitches yesterday"
There's the thing. Now get off my lawn!
If you're bored with ball games maybe raise the stakes, Mayan style.
In fact, you’ve made the nutshell a little jewel case where your nugget of truth resides in all its simple beauty - the problem with rationalism - it doesn’t go anywhere we want to go.
7/17/18, 11:34 AM
The rational being does not build cathedrals; nor does he sell all his goods and explore the far corners of the universe; nor defend the weak from the strong; still less does he write verse. Rationality has its uses, but also its limits.
Until a robot can writhe in agony on the ground after being lightly brushed by an opposing player, I will never believe they will be able to master soccer.
The defenses in MLB are smarter and better. Teach your kid to hit right handed unless they have elite speed. The shifts really hurt the lefties like Rizzo and Harper. Bellinger is a young guy who is trying to make adjustments to the shifts with some success.
You can shift a bit against a righty but the first baseman can only play so far from the bag.
Guys like Joey Gallo are a total waste. He can hit homeruns when he doesn’t strike out, which he does a lot.
Mookie Betts and Altuve are high contact good hitters. Trout has done a great job of cutting down his strikeouts. He walks more and does a lot of damage. The problem for baseball is the same problem the NFL and NBA have. The difference between the elite players and the average player is too great. So there are too many teams.
before i went fishing, James said: " There's still plenty of room for iconoclasts (Joe Maddon is still doing it, as are others)"
Oh GOOD GRIEF! who the Heck CARES about Joe Maddon?
Have ANY of his teams EVER won their division, let alone a pennant?
Wasn't Joe Maddon SO BAD that they demoted him; To The CUBS?
THE CUBS! aren't they the National League team with The WORST Loss/Win record ?
lol, robot number 6 is their flopper. mccullough, the assertion you're making is one that could easily be measured by the various cumulative value figures used to measure ballplayers (WARP, VORP, etc. are some older ones). admittedly it's been a few years since I've looked at baseball nerd stuff, but in casual perusal I haven't seen anyone making that assertion regarding a growing gap between the elite and average players. in fact, the last few years have seen a group of incredibly exciting young players, and the two-way Shohei Ohtani from Japan. but nothing beats watching my now 8 yo start the spring being unable to field a grounder or catch a pop fly to finishing the spring season as a pitcher. or watching my daughter rip line drives one after another at the batting cages. fortunately both bat right-handed, though I throw right/bat left. that used to be considered good.
Durant was more effective when he took fewer 3's and developed his rhythm nailing mid-range 2's like layups. Reserves West (C) and Livingston (SG) are mid-range hunters who were needed by the Warriors to win the title.
The Popovich revolution of NBA uses International style focus on defense and fundamentals. It's designed to beat superstars. That's why LaBron went to Luke's Lakers who plays in that style.
I think Walton is a better coach than Kerr.
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