June 12, 2018

"President Trump said Tuesday that he was suspending joint military exercises with South Korean forces and that he was confident North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, would begin dismantling his nuclear arsenal 'very quickly.'"

The NYT reports.
Speaking after a historic summit meeting in Singapore, Mr. Trump described the joint exercises as “very provocative,” given the continuing negotiations. But he said economic sanctions against the North would remain in place until the North did more.

Mr. Trump’s decision to suspend the war games, which he attributed in part to their cost, was a significant concession to North Korea — and a gamble that Mr. Kim will follow through on pledges to abandon his nuclear weapons program.

In a televised ceremony, the two leaders signed a joint statement in which Mr. Trump “committed to provide security guarantees” to North Korea, and Mr. Kim “reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”

But the statement did not go much further than previous statements by North Korea and was short on details, including any timetable or verification measures.

Asked if Mr. Kim had agreed to denuclearize, Mr. Trump said, “We’re starting that process very quickly — very, very quickly — absolutely.”

53 comments:

Darrell said...

But the statement did not go much further than previous statements by North Korea and was short on details, including any timetable or verification measures.

Trump made it clear that details were discussed and agreed upon orally--including American and international inspectors. The timetable is meant to be as soon as scientifically and mechanically possible. There is more to the deal than the four bullet points on the signed agreement. Some of the negotiations have been going on for three months. We maintain sanctions until various goals are met. It is meant to be flexible and a process.

gilbar said...

World Peace Breaks Out!
Igna, LLR's Hit Hardest!

Darrell said...

On day 1 you assume the promises are all made in good faith. Time will be the judge and our response will be appropriate and measured.

exhelodrvr1 said...

So far, so good.

FleetUSA said...

Kim has more to gain going forward and that's a good thing. MAGA

David Begley said...

How great is Trump? And Mike Pompeo?

Just heard Ed Henry on Fox report that Pompeo say we are going to keep our foot on North Korea’s throat until it completely denukes.

Former K St and Creighton basketball coach Dana Altman always told his players, “Step on their throats fellas.”

And how ineffective and stupid does Obama look now? Nothing done with North Korea. We had Iran on the floor but Barack let them up and then gave them billions.

Darrell said...

Btw, South Korea and Japan will help pick up much of the expense for the denuclearization process. We are not the only country involved with this agreement.

AllenS said...

Cancelling joint military exercises with South Korea is classic Trump's The Art of the Deal.

daskol said...

Optimism. It lays this way. This is his first 500 and change day. Sit back, enjoy the ride and hope to hell the violent ideations of his enemies don't materialize. Art of the Deal is an important book. However, a deal is only part art. You also need to be completely sincere in order to make that stuff work. That's Trump. Sincerity. He's fucking sincere. People get confused by terrible taste, the trophy wives, the ridiculous hair. But ignore all that for a moment, and pay attention, as Ann does, to the man: he says what he means, and then he does what he says. We've never, in my lifetime, had a leader who was sincere. Sincerity. Say it with me: sincerity. In a leader. It's remarkable. It's rare. Let's enjoy it.

daskol said...

Meanwhile, if you go in for that, today is the day of maximum schadenfreude. Trump calls it maximum pressure, but it's maximum schadenfreude to all who mocked him. The news is painful for me to watch because the talking heads are in pain. They're taking great pains not to undermine the emerging world peace, if they're good people. If they're not, or if they're stupid, they're just focusing on all the ways this even does not compute for them--like badly programmed robots. But the good ones, the ones who are trying to get it right, and not do harm, are in pain. Cognitive dissonance hurts.

daskol said...

Jake Tapper, for example, is having the hardest day of his life. He's on CNN right now doing maximum cognitive dissonance. He's also sincere, so you can tell how hard this is for him. Everyone is asking him questions, because they know he's sincere: that's why people like him. And that's why he's struggling really, really hard today. Turn on CNN and see what I mean.

daskol said...

But tune in quick, because he's smart, and he's already started rationalizing. If you don't turn it on soon, he'll have already fixed his cognitive dissonance.

daskol said...

He even has sincere advisers. Larry Kudlow, in the midst of a heart attack, told the world yesterday: he humiliated Trudeau to make sure Kim knew who he was dealing with. And Trudeau deserved it. He's a jackass.

daskol said...

Pogo, the Australian, needs a little more confidence, but he showed the way to fight off the Attack of the Single Loop Learners: sincerity. Strong sincerity, not weak sincerity. Trump is strong sincerity.

daskol said...

In the Age of That's Not Funny, Sincerity Saves.

daskol said...

Funny sincerity is, of course, the best sort of sincerity.

Michael said...

Rest assured that our press is busy calling experts and asking what are the ten worst things about this agreement. We will know these by the end of today.

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...

Hitler always signs a fake agreement just before launching the panzer blitzkrieg!

Literally!

daskol said...

Oh, and by the way, he gave credit to Dennis Rodman, my favorite basketball player, for the whole thing. He gave credit to Rodman. On CNN. This morning, they have two former aides--black former WH aides--on CNN to talk about he got angry and tore up memos. Memos that need to be preserved, because he's president, and his papers need preservation. They're still trying to hurt him, but it won't work. Dennis Rodman spoke beautifully last night about love. You should watch the video. It was also sincere. James Clapper was the guest afterwards, and he acknowledged that Dennis Rodman, in his sincerity, made the fundamental point of realpolitik: forget about the politics, and focus on the need. Needy people, the small ones, and needy people: like Kim Jong Un. James Clapper. Crediting Dennis Rodman with zeroing in on the key insight of realpolitik. Right after Donald Trump authorized Dennis Rodman to go on CNN to take credit for the Singapore Summit. Sincerity is really entertaining to watch. These two aides are not going to change things: black people are going to love Trump too. If you're interested in politics, the midterms just got forecast for Trump.

daskol said...

Strong sincerity. Courage, sincerity and brains. Add a little extroversion and a sense of humor, and you have a great world leader, it turns out.

daskol said...

This is Machiavelli, not Art of the Deal. Art of the Deal is dumbed down for the 21st century single loop learners. Back in Machiavelli's day, all the literate people were highly educated.

daskol said...

The Age of the Expert is over. Thank God. Thank Trump. Thank the spaghetti monster. But The Age of the Expert is finally fucking over. Those guys are really annoying.

Robert Cook said...

"World Peace Breaks Out!"

Hardly. We still have plenty of fighting forces out in the world waging war.

daskol said...

When you posses strong intuition, as Trump does, you can trust a guy like Kim. You can trust to do as he's told, as long as you get him to trust you. Machiavelli said something like that.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

Darrell said...

On day 1 you assume the promises are all made in good faith. Time will be the judge and our response will be appropriate and measured.

Assuming that promises are made in good faith is a luxury you have only if you set things up in advance such that you can verify compliance and punish non-compliance.

In game theory this is known as mechanism design. How do you establish the rules of the game such that compliance costs less than non-compliance?

Darrell said...

Ignorance is Bliss said
Assuming that promises are made in good faith is a luxury you have only if you set things up in advance such that you can verify compliance and punish non-compliance.
I also said, earlier in the thread--
Trump made it clear that details were discussed and agreed upon orally--including American and international inspectors. The timetable is meant to be as soon as scientifically and mechanically possible. There is more to the deal than the four bullet points on the signed agreement.

We will have people on the negotiating team and inspection team in North Korea in a matter of days. Trump is a believer in trust, but verify. You have to be when you build buildings.

Dickin'Bimbos@Home said...

oh no. What if Trump is actually successful? What will the collective hive mind left do?

I heard a British reporter yesterday say that Kim had all the power & all the leverage. Total media hack adulation of Kim. LOL.

Darrell said...

The CBS reporter summarizing the Trump press conference made it sound like he thinks we will be seeing thousands of live POW/MIAs coming home (Does anyone know where they were? How's that going to work?) If you can hear that in the voice of the narrator of the Honey Badger tape at YouTube, you'll get the full effect.

TheDopeFromHope said...

On MSNBC last night, Lawrence O'Donnell said that "one thing we know for sure" is that Donald Trump will lie about what was said in the one-on-one meeting because we all know what a liar Trump is. The next person on the panel to speak?: Brian Williams. These people have no sense of self-awareness at all.

Lydia said...

Trump re Kim in an interview on ABC this morning: "His country does love him. His people, you see the fervor. They have a great fervor."

Dear God.

Darrell said...

On MSNBC last night, Lawrence O'Donnell said that "one thing we know for sure" is that Donald Trump will lie about what was said in the one-on-one meeting because we all know what a liar Trump is.

I posted Lyin' Ben Rhodes version of this, telling Rachel Maddow that Trump will probably lie about what happened at the meeting. And warned people to watch for Chuck's comments today.

Big Mike said...

Here’s what Bridget Johnson of PJmedia wrote today:

“Security guarantees in exchange for denuclearization seemed to be everybody's preferred framework going in, and that seems to be what came out. But the devil remains in the details, and everybody is mum so far on what those details are, exactly.

So did we get screwed? Did Kim? Did we sell out the South? Is everyone a winner? Does the agreement have teeth, or was it just a photo-op?

We just don't know yet.”

Time to wait and watch.

Big Mike said...

A communist leader is giving up his nukes. Cookie will be crying for weeks. Months!

daskol said...

That's schadenfreude. Maybe he deserves it, but he seems a good sort of commie. Kind that likes Marx, not Mao. Kinda like John Lennon. Intellectually honest commies are ok because, despite the terrible cognitive dissonance, they post in here. Still seeking the truth, after all these years. John Lennon said nice things about Ronald Reagan right before that asshole murdered him.

daskol said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
daskol said...

From Give Peace a Chance to Imagine to saying nice things about Ronald Reagan. And his last record was all about his family and his beautiful new baby boy. That's a great that song, btw. Beautiful Boy.

Scott said...

As an infrequent commentator who was stationed in Korea keeping an eye on the Norks in the mid '90s, I'd like to add my $0.02 here.

Suspending the annual KEY RESOLVE/FOAL EAGLE exercises is a concession to the Norks, but much less of one than may be apparent. First off, it can easily resume and be rescheduled at any time if it becomes necessary by NK noncompliance or an increase in tensions. Second, we have an extensive set of data already over the past 17 years or so from previous exercises and everyone is pretty much on the same page.

The big concession that our allies did not want to see happen was withdrawal of US troops from South Korea where they serve as a tripwire and deterrent force. As long as they are in place, we will have a major say in matters both in terms of NK/SK and reassure everyone concerned in that part of the world that there will be no rerun of the 1930s.

As for the listed NK concessions, we have a fair number of unclaimed US military remains from battles in North Korea such as Chosin Reservoir and Kunu-ri in late 1950 as the Chinese counterattacked and US/UN forces retreated down the peninsula. Having teams there to identify and repatriate our troops remains is a big deal for veterans and their families. Also since in order to denuclearize, we would want our inspectors on the ground to verify activities, the risks to US nationals are not major in any event. So a concession by them but again, not a major one and they gain a lot of domestic 'face' for forcing the Big Bad Yankee Satan to the table to be lectured by KJU (which is how they will spin it domestically).

Speaking of denuclearization, Trump would be well served to run any agreement beyond putting casualty collection teams into NK through the Senate. A treaty like that would be a fairly easy sell for him although the Democrats will object since it highlights that this is what Obama should have done with Iran.

Overall on a 1-10 scale, I'd call this a 8.5 or so. Kim was not going to cave to us unless he was tired of living, so this agreement is about as good as realistically can be achieved. I expect at some point a written agreement on denuclearization will be produced, and then we will know more, probably with another summit to sign it.

daskol said...

Wow. I think that's what actual expertise looks like. Maybe you could play one on TV once in a while to set an example for the other "expert."

daskol said...

8.5 is not bad. Is Trump just dangling his desire to bring our troops home in order to entice Kim into believing that's possible? Mattis' strong statement that such a deal would be negotiated ONLY with S. Korea, with no seat at the table for Kim, makes it look like Trump has his SecDef drawing a line in the sand to comfort our allies and tell Kim what NOT to ask for.

Balfegor said...

Re: daskol:

Jake Tapper, for example, is having the hardest day of his life. He's on CNN right now doing maximum cognitive dissonance. He's also sincere, so you can tell how hard this is for him. Everyone is asking him questions, because they know he's sincere: that's why people like him. And that's why he's struggling really, really hard today. Turn on CNN and see what I mean.

Tapper is really CNN's best journalistic asset.

On this meeting, well, the world didn't end, so that was nice. And there has been a little bit of a thaw, which is also nice. So I'm interested to sit back and see what happens. My anxiety about Korea was at maximum terror in advance of the 2018 state of the union (where leaks were that there was "big news" about North Korea, which I feared meant we were attacking) and now, it's lower than it's been in my entire adult life.

I only wish that dolt Moon Jae-in weren't about to benefit from this politically. He's such an embarrassment. But having a Leftist tool like him in South Korea was probably an essential ingredient in this mix -- the North would have it's guard up too high with almost any other politician in power.

Balfegor said...

I also see journalists are criticising Trump for saying that Jong-un "loves his people." I mean, okay that's risible, but Trump is the kind of guy that will say whatever he feels like he needs to say to butter up his negotiating partner. That's why he's always calling people horrible names and then flipping on a dime to say that they're wonderful, wonderful people, as soon as he makes progress with them. And then flips immediately to calling them horrible names at the first setback.

Etienne said...
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brylun said...

Psycho Joe Scarborough calls Trump "sick" for negotiating to get NK to give up nuclear weapons. Leftist talking point #1.

brylun said...

Crumbs Pelosi criticizes Trump for "vague" promises by NK to give up nuclear weapons. Leftist talking point #2.

Alex said...

So the gulags can continue ad-infinitum. Nice to see Trump cares not an iota about the North Korean people.

Known Unknown said...

Lennon also wrote Revolution, so he wasn't a true warrior, was he?

Michael K said...

Blogger Alex said...
So the gulags can continue ad-infinitum. Nice to see Trump cares not an iota about the North Korean people.


The lunatic left speaks up.

How many gulags in South Korea ?

Idiot.

Balfegor said...

Re: Alex:

So the gulags can continue ad-infinitum. Nice to see Trump cares not an iota about the North Korean people.

Short of an all-out invasion risking the obliteration of Seoul and nuclear attacks on Japan and the United States, I'm not sure what, realistically, anyone thinks we can do about the North Korean camps. And yes, they're almost guaranteed to continue ad infinitum. I mean, even China still has reeducation camps, and we've had diplomatic relations with them since Nixon (though to be fair, the number of people in the reeducation camps has apparently increased significantly since the accession of Xi Jinping).

Alex said...

So NK torture camps can continue on. The fat, orange President has nothing to say about it.

Scott said...

Alex said...

So NK torture camps can continue on. The fat, orange President has nothing to say about it.
6/12/18, 2:50 PM


Since you are so concerned about the suffering of the North Korean people, here's a link to assist you in doing something meaningful about it. https://www.goarmy.com/

I spent a solid year of my life literally three minutes from having nerve gas dropped on my head without warning in a time period when there was a massive countrywide manhunt underway for Nork commandos killing people when their submarine grounded itself as it tried to infiltrate them. I'm sure you can do the same.

Unless the regime in Pyongyang is overthrown, there is not much that can be done about the gulags, unfortunately. That was never on the table for the simple reason that if Kim gave them up right now, he would be overthrown violently since he is ruling in the main part by fear and extreme social control/censorship. Dictatorship has the real problem that the 'retirement' benefits suck and generally involve the Glorious Leader dying messily as a lamppost decoration or being sodomized by an AK-47 or similar. All Kim's moves are taking that into account.

The Godfather said...

I just finished reading the chapters about the Korean War in Manchester's bio of MacArthur. We hadn't done any joint training exercises with the South Korean Army before that war got started, but we did OK and drove the Norks almost to the Yalu River until the Chicoms came in. I assume that the exercises we've been doing with the ROKs in more recent years have had some training benefits, but they've probably been done principally for political purposes -- to show the Norks that the US will continue to defend the South. Therefore, suspending those exercises is a reasoable thing for the US to do while we are assuming that Kim is acting in good faith. And, as Trump said, the exercises cost money.

Etienne said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
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