Althouse: "For years, an unwavering certitude of industry, think tanks, demographers, policy-makers and city planners everywhere has been that humanity is moving to the city."

June 10, 2018

"For years, an unwavering certitude of industry, think tanks, demographers, policy-makers and city planners everywhere has been that humanity is moving to the city."

"We just needed to figure out how to house, employ and feed everyone in a condensed space. Yes, but... in a mea culpa at Brookings, William Frey, a demographer, said that, based on new census data, he has changed his mind on what he thought was a mass urbanization trend. He still thinks that cities will attract 'young people — especially well-off, affluent millennials and post-millennials. But this won't be most cities... And, for this younger generation, what I see is more clustered developments within the suburbs, and smaller metros, greater reliance on public transportation and perhaps ride-hailing and self-driving cars.'... Self-driving cars will also make people more likely to perceive places as closer together, since they won't have to become aggravated driving there...."

From "Millennials are moving to the exurbs in droves" (Axios).

41 comments:

readering said...: And yet I was just reading an article on deaths of rural malls.; 6/10/18, 3:23 PM
Bill, Republic of Texas said...: Our intellectual and moral betters miss the obvious one more time.

Shocking.; 6/10/18, 3:23 PM
Henry said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 6/10/18, 3:23 PM
Henry said...: From the article:

As more and more millennials marry and have children...

Bizarrely, the rest of the article never mentions children again. Self-driving cars my eye.; 6/10/18, 3:24 PM
Henry said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 6/10/18, 3:32 PM
Henry said...: Here's the source article, on Brookings. Most of it is just reporting the numbers, but there's one paragraph of interpretation:

The huge attention given to the city growth revival in the early part of this decade was warranted given the long history of suburbanization in the U.S. The housing crunch and Great Recession in the previous decade (2000-2010) led to a situation in which the choices of potential suburban movers, especially young adult millennials, were constrained, and who, either by choice or necessity, fueled city growth levels, which outpaced those of the suburbs.

To reinterpret: We got carried away by an outlier data point in a half-century trend. We embraced the data point despite clear evidence that it was an outlier. Turns out that if you take away people's money they don't buy houses.; 6/10/18, 3:32 PM
mockturtle said...: He still thinks that cities will attract 'young people — especially well-off, affluent millennials and post-millennials.

And the homeless. Don't forget the homeless.; 6/10/18, 3:37 PM
wildswan said...: Apparently the new idea is link together bike trails, some non-major roads and park roads into a network which has direct outlets to downtown and business areas. So that you aren't riding your bike in traffic. Self-driving cars fit into this design because they will not be driven mad by being surrounded by crazy bikers and their technology can see and brake for bikers. So these two modes of transport would use bike greenways to get to commercial areas.
Cars are used very commonly to transport children to sports; to move groceries home; to pick up objects at Ace hardware and Home Depot; and to travel to other far away places. These uses don't seem to be considered by transportation planners.

Moreover, if we are going to give up road space to bikes and trolleys they should pay for the percentage of the road marked off for themselves. Bicycles should be licensed and registered annually like cars to pat for their road share; and trolleys could have a fixed rate for their tracks.; 6/10/18, 3:41 PM
Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...: And yet I was just reading an article about the deaths of rural malls

It’s called online shopping. Everyone is doing it. Even those in urban areas.; 6/10/18, 3:47 PM
Hagar said...: Transportation engineers work to plan ways and means to efficiently move goods and people to where they need, or want, to go. City planners work to stop anything like that from happening or at least make it as difficult and expensive as possible. Traffic engineers get to cope with the resulting mess as best they can.; 6/10/18, 3:55 PM
I'm Full of Soup said...: In 2010, Philadelphia had finally seen a population increase after decades of decline. Libruls brayed that it was due to the young professionals moving back to the city. But the other day, the PU Foundation announced one of every seven Philly residents is foreign born so I suspect the population growth was mostly a result of both illegal and legal immigration.; 6/10/18, 4:07 PM
Michael K said...: Left wing fantasies like self driving cars and bike commuters are just more of the self delusion that empowers the left until they run out of other people's money, as is happening in California.

In California there are bike trails and a bullet train to nowhere but no new reservoirs in spite of billions in bond issues.; 6/10/18, 4:16 PM
gilbar said...: But Michael, why on earth should they build new reservoirs; when they aren't using all of the ones they have now? How much fresh water are they intentionally releasing into San Francisco bay now?; 6/10/18, 4:31 PM
Etienne said...: Here in Oklahoma City they have been throwing money at the downtown area.

There are little clusters. Right now the big problem is grocery stores. There are none downtown. But there is plenty of places to eat. Most young people don't cook anyway.

But these clusters are attracting young people. As a matter of fact, the people moving into those areas are making a real community.

We often skip the suburbs, go to the Mid-Town cluster and just hang out. We are probably older than most, but we are welcomed, and not driven-off.

The big thing now is they built a light rail that will go in a big circle around these clusters, and also empty out into a huge new park they are building.

All done with 1 cent sales taxes over 25 years or so.

Hopefully they can keep the vagrants out. We don't need any more Portland's or San Francisco's unless they build more public latrines. Maybe self-cleaning Euro-coin boxes like in London, Paris, and Madrid.; 6/10/18, 5:19 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: The more the planners plan, the more the plan fails

-- Ronnie Reagan; 6/10/18, 5:28 PM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: For every Millennial who yearns for the bright lights, there's one that hopes for just enough space to be left the fuck alone. These days, those two things come with a similar price tag, so it isn't that surprising that Millennials aren't just pouring into the cities.; 6/10/18, 5:32 PM
YoungHegelian said...: Of course, millenials are leaving the cities. Why? Schools, just like every other generation before them.

The millenials are moving into their baby making years. Not only does the arrival of a kid mean the need for more space, but it brings with it thoughts of school. Then it hits them: "Am I going to send my precious darling to these appalling schools that I've heard horror stories about for all of my life? Or, am I going to pony up the bucks (in the DC area, often over $35K per year) for private school?"

Now, the urban millenials are often Democrats, & these wicked thoughts put them at odds with one of the most entrenched of Democratic interests groups: the teachers unions, unions which are in urban areas heavily minority to boot. So, they resolve this issue, which involves their children, guilt over the need to kick around minority union members in order to effect reform, & the almost certain knowledge that they will lose the political struggle, by leaving it all behind. They thus find a decent school for junior & avoid the morally arduous battle of telling black/hispanic teachers to their faces that they have absolutely no business teaching any children, but especially not theirs.

I have seen this played out over & over again all my adult life in the DC area.; 6/10/18, 5:32 PM
tcrosse said...: Here in Oklahoma City they have been throwing money at the downtown area.

Sounds like a ghetto for gay guys.; 6/10/18, 5:46 PM
Robert Cook said...: "Moreover, if we are going to give up road space to bikes and trolleys they should pay for the percentage of the road marked off for themselves. Bicycles should be licensed and registered annually like cars to pat for their road share; and trolleys could have a fixed rate for their tracks."

You're assuming bicyclists are not also automobile owners and drivers--and taxpayers--who already contribute to the costs of roads via taxes and fees.; 6/10/18, 6:02 PM
Luke Lea said...: Readers might be interested in my Notes Towards a New Way of Life in America, which advances the idea of factories in the countryside run on part-time jobs:

n this 21st century 'capitalist' eutopia, Luke Lea explores a world of New Country Towns in which the people work part-time outside the home, and in their free time build their own houses, cultivate gardens, cook and care for their children and grandchildren, and pursue hobbies and other outside interests. They live on small family homesteads grouped around neighborhood greens, and get around town in glorified golf-carts. So thoroughly are work and leisure integrated into the fabric of their everyday lives that they don’t feel the need to retire, and they die at home in their beds as a rule, surrounded by loved ones.

For those who would like to move to this world he provides a map with some directions for how to get there from here.

*A eutopia (from the Greek eu-, good + topos, place; hence "a good place") differs from a utopia ("no place") in being a possible as opposed to an impossible ideal, given the existing state of economic, political, and technological development.

"[Luke Lea] is an excellent amateur economist." Milton Friedman

"The idea cries out to be tried." Robert Heilbronner

https://www.amazon.com/Notes-Towards-New-Life-America-ebook/dp/B076J9D9C5/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1513548423&sr=1-1; 6/10/18, 6:26 PM
Michael said...: YoungHegelian has it right. Wonderful to live in the city, court, marry and enjoy the vibe. Even have a kid or two to pop in the stroller and walk the streets and the parks. And one fine day the couple trouble to check out the nearby public school and the fantasy begins to fade. They hate their racism and their snobbery but thypey have to do what they have to do and what legions of people have done down the years. They move to the suburbs, to a neighborhood with schools with great records, great treachery. They vote with their feet to the dismay, and consternation of stunned city officials. And over time the senior executives tire of the commute and they lease a new office in the suburb or the exurb and the commute vanishes for those who have made the move. And the office waits for those who check out the in town elementary school.; 6/10/18, 6:31 PM
Michael said...: Teachers not treachery. Jeez.; 6/10/18, 6:32 PM
M Jordan said...: Small towns. That’s the next trend. Not super small but 10,000-50,000 sized. They need to be well situated, fairly near a metro area but 100 miles or so is close enough. Maybe even further if other factors — like great roads — is in place. They need to have that 1880’s downtown look and feel also. And they are especially helped if they have a college. Lots of old houses vintage turn of the century ... the 1900’s turn, of course.

Hey, I’m talking about my small town of 35,000. Interesting.; 6/10/18, 6:37 PM
mockturtle said...: Luke Lea, your eutopia sounds very attractive. Maybe I'll order some copies of your book for my grandchildren. I do think the millennials are going to be fussier about their children's environment than were their parents and will be willing see past the rat race and into a more nurturing future. Cities are no place to raise children.

And anyone Milton Friedman approved of is high on my list!; 6/10/18, 8:02 PM
mockturtle said...: Uh-oh, I see it's only available on kindle.; 6/10/18, 8:05 PM
YoungHegelian said...: @Mockturtle,

Uh-oh, I see it's only available on kindle.

There's a Kindle reader available for Windows, Mac, whatever.

I don't have a Kindle but I have a Kindle reader on my PCs, & I've got oodles of books now from Amazon.

Don't let not having a Kindle stop you.; 6/10/18, 8:13 PM
mockturtle said...: I have a kindle and do most of my reading on it but my grandchildren may not. They have smart phones so I assume they can download a book but giving it to them via kindle may be awkward.; 6/10/18, 9:01 PM
Seeing Red said...: What happened to the 15 cities Obama had planned? Wasn’t that early in his presidency?; 6/10/18, 9:40 PM
Seeing Red said...: The millennial seem to not be buying cars and their homes seem to be 1 and done.; 6/10/18, 9:41 PM
Temujin said...: Joel Kotkin at newgeography.com has been discussing this for some time. The 'experts' have been telling us, planning for us, to all move in together in clustered, tiered, dense housing in major cities. We've been told for years, it's not only the trend, but it's (of course) for the good of the planet. Yet, the suburbs are exploding even still. And the exurbs of today and merely another ring of suburbs for tomorrow. As millennials get a bit older, have children and require good schools and maybe a yard, maybe even a place to just have some elbow room, they tend to lose interest in stepping over homeless people on their walk to the nearby coffee shop. It's great to have bars and coffee shops you can walk to, until it's not.; 6/10/18, 9:46 PM
mockturtle said...: The 'experts' have been telling us, planning for us, to all move in together in clustered, tiered, dense housing in major cities. We've been told for years, it's not only the trend, but it's (of course) for the good of the planet.
And of course, Temujin, concentrated people are much easier to control.; 6/10/18, 11:09 PM
Bruce Hayden said...: It is probably my age but I have ever really understood the allure of urban Irving. Decades ago a good friend was living in Manhattan. In Soho. And she would tell me that she didn’t wear her contacts when she was outside. Just too depressing. I would visit, on occasion to watch her dance, and I agreed - it felt like WW III had left the city that destroyed, esp knowing how we both had grown up in suburbia. It did apparently got better under Giuliani, but has slid since then. It was filthy, with a lot of lot of obnoxious people, rats, trash everywhere, etc. this was supposed to be one of the most desirous urban locations in the country, and it was squalid. I tried to take the subway back to Grand Central Station, to catch the train back to DC, and her parents made sure that I didn’t. I didn’t understand that there were places that were fine during the day, but dangerous late at night. And, it wasn’t just NYC - I have visited, or even lived for short periods of time in downtown in a number of big cities around the country, and none of them were that much better. I could never adapt, having grown up in an outer suburb.

My kid and their SO are planning on moving in together, after 5 years of dating. And, yes, being millennials, they want to try urban living. They want some restaurants and a brew pub w/I easy walking distance. But both know that they need to move to the suburbs when they settle down to have kids.

And, realistically, what else is there making living around the crime, violence, squalor, slow police response, and inferior schools, in an urban environment worthwhile? At one time, the best jobs were downtown in big cities. But that is changing. More and more of the top talent is refusing to live in grossly overpriced urban areas, with their skyrocketing taxes, etc. Exurbs are far more pleasant. And more and more jobs can be done remotely, which means that many can live far better in rural areas, where, like here, in NW MT, guns are for protection against 4 legged predators, not 2 legged. Where you are much more likely to hit a deer, than a screaming bicyclist. Good friend, another patent atty, shows off the view from his “office”, down across a bay, and up at 2,000 ft cliffs, which feature both bighorn sheep and mountain goats. He has a telescope by his desk to check them out, or see who is sailing. He has a real downtown office, and tries to make it into his office one afternoon, every other week. That is part of the wave of tomorrow. Earlier today, I was talking to the server at the sandwich place in town about Internet access. Back 8 years ago, I would have to search up and down the highway for an unlocked WiFi router to download and upload work from my office in N NV. Now, WiFi hotspots are everywhere.; 6/10/18, 11:41 PM
Bruce Hayden said...: “The 'experts' have been telling us, planning for us, to all move in together in clustered, tiered, dense housing in major cities. We've been told for years, it's not only the trend, but it's (of course) for the good of the planet.”

“And of course, Temujin, concentrated people are much easier to control.”

When the SHTF, when the NORKs launch an EMP attack on us or a solar flare knocks out electrical apparatuses, the closer you live to downtown in a big city, the faster, and more surely, you will die. Very quickly you will find yourself out of food, clean water, trash removal, electricity, gasoline, etc and facing armed criminals willing to kill you for whatever you have. All these things are, under normal circumstances, always days away from being out. Inner cities don’t grow their own food, generate their own power, etc. Atll many of them actually grow are their own violent thugs and criminals. This is also, BTW, why a successful blue state revolution is impossible - because the urban lifeline is so easy to cut, and impossible to protect.

And, of course, claiming that dense urban cities are better for the envirment is silly faith based wishful thinking environmentalism.; 6/10/18, 11:56 PM
CJ said...: Millennials will do the same thing every other generation has done. I'm on the front end of Millennials and most of my friends are getting married, buying houses and apartments and having children. Just like the Gen Xers did and just like the Baby Boomers did.

This whole "Millennials" don't buy "thing", they buy "experiences" BS they've been spouting for the past 10 years is nonsense.; 6/11/18, 8:40 AM
Robert Cook said...: "It is probably my age but I have ever really understood the allure of urban Irving."

It just comes down to personal preference. I grew up in the suburbs in Indiana and Florida, but I always found city environments to be stimulating, exciting. (My sister-in-law said I was a New Yorker before I ever moved to New York.) I moved to NYC at age 25, in 1981, so I lived through the years of NYC's decrepitude. A good friend of mine lived in Alphabet City, a slum filled with junkies, which was squalor squared.

However...I liked it, and came to love it. I find skyscrapers and asphalt streets and people crowded atop one another preferable to suburban banality and emptiness, (which is how I experience suburbs). I love being able to leave my apt. building and be able to walk to supermarkets or pharmacies or hardware stores or restaurants, etc. within minutes...free of the burden of having to own a car, not needing to jump into a car and drive a mile to the closest amenities. I love the miscellany of people from many different cultures, the beautiful discordance of it. There's no explaining or justifying it: one just likes what one likes.

NYC today is very different than the NYC I moved into. I do enjoy the improvements, but I frankly miss some of the old NYC. It's becoming more like other cities in America, and is becoming a place where only the rich can live. I'll probably leave NYC eventually, of financial necessity if nothing else, but I'll regret leaving.; 6/11/18, 12:13 PM
Kirk Parker said...: Hagar,

"Transportation engineers work to plan ways and means to efficiently move goods and people to where they need, or want, to go. "

I see you have never been to Washington State.; 6/11/18, 12:26 PM
mockturtle said...: Cookie, I've had friends who live in and love NYC so I understand. My guess is that you didn't marry and have a family. Skyscrapers and asphalt are not the ideal place for children to play, IMO.

Kirk, do you live in WA, as I did most of my life? Can you tell me what the hell the state does with its money? Any clue? Also, is Big Bertha still buried in the tunnel?; 6/11/18, 1:40 PM
gerry said...: Liberal dream death. Who knew? Another one begins to bite the dust...; 6/11/18, 2:31 PM
funsize said...: While I hate being referred to as a millennial, the numbers work out. We just bought our house last year. I could say "first house", but I plan to stay here forever. No reason to just keep trading up for larger and larger houses only to trade down again when kid/kids leave (no kids yet though). No sense in following a stupid trend just because others with more money have done it, or its the "thing to do". Also, moving is way too much work. I enjoy my suburban area, with small-city amenities on one side, and more rural and green areas on another. The traffic, well, it's WA after all...; 6/11/18, 4:08 PM
OGWiseman said...: The idea that this article discusses the slowing urbanization of America without discussing the artificial limits being placed on new housing--and thus the sky-high cost of renting or owning--in major urban areas is goddamn ridiculous.

If they built 10 million new housing units in the big cities of California and I could afford to buy a home here in Los Angeles, I would not be considering a move to an exurb near where I grew up. That is the #1, #2, and #3 factors, and it's not discussed here. Crazy.; 6/11/18, 4:45 PM
Kirk Parker said...: mockturtle,

Yes I do, and no I don't (other than a generic "waste it".); 6/11/18, 4:51 PM