Today’s special election in Arizona’s eighth district is being watched closely to see if Democrats can continue flipping seats held by Republicans. Dr. Hiral Tipirnen, the Democratic candidate in the race, joins Katy Tur to discuss today’s election.Answer, in yesterday's special election: NO.
Let's see how MSNBC reports the story: "Republican Debbie Lesko scores tight win in Arizona special election, NBC News projects/Lesko's lead might have kept a conservative congressional district in Republican hands — but the margin might be too close for comfort."
How tight?
Lesko held a 52.6 percent to 47.4 percent lead over Tiperneni, or 91,390 votes to 82,316 — an Republican advantage of 9,072 votes, with 100 percent of precincts reporting, according to the Arizona secretary of state's office.Doesn't seem tight to me.
That margin may concern Republicans. President Donald Trump carried the district in the conservative Western Phoenix suburbs by 21 percentage points, and its previous occupant, Trent Franks, a Republican, ran unopposed.The blue wave. It's there even when it's not there.
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71 comments:
Yes! Americans pine for gun grabbing, higher taxes, a lot more illegal immigration, and state-mandated homosexuality.
A four hundred percent difference in the margin of victory between 5% and 21% seems significant, but whom I am to judge.
5% isn't a land slide, but its well outside a margin of error in a poll. In short, a clear majority support Lesko and not the Democrat. Face it, Democrat are losers in Arizona 8. Any reasonable person would understand this.
The excitement is palpable
Perhaps the news could deign to report on absolute numbers and not just percentages. Turnout in a special election could be a lot lower. Turnout in a presidential election could be a lot higher.
Usually the party out of power has more enthusiastic voters.
If you're not winning, you're losing, and no one wants to be a loser.
A four hundred percent difference in the margin of victory between 5% and 21% seems significant, but whom I am to judge.
Any vote above the "margin of fraud" is just padding anyway.
The blue wave. It's there even when it's not there.
The blue wave, Russian collusion, obstruction of justice, the list goes on.
Fake news indeed. What percentage of everything reported in the last two years was nothing more than wishful thinking?
We can start with "Trump will never be President".
Tide rolls out on 'blue wave' in AZ-8: It's a long way to Tipirneni.
I just wanted to use that line again since there was an actual post on the topic!
A win is a win.
The Dems need to learn that there is this no such thing as a moral victory in sports or politics. I learned that from former Creighton coach (and Duke player) Tony Barone.
Dr. Hiral Tipirnen, the Democratic candidate in the race, joins Katy Tur to discuss today’s election.
Why is the losing Dem in a special election for a red district being interviewed on MSNBC?
Is the segment going to be called, "The Expected Happened, Let's Break It Down For You"?
No, it's going to be pandering to an audience who needs to take something out of every race to keep the blue wave story alive. A fake story was created, which requires more fake news to be kept alive.
i'm tired of these 'special elections'
the democrat got 82,316 votes, according to wiki, there are 767,981 people in that district
82,316/767,981 = 0.107185, ~ 11%
this means that...
Nearly Eighty Percent of People in District Refused to Vote for Democrat!
A four hundred percent difference in the margin of victory between 5% and 21% seems significant, but whom I am to judge.
It's not. Any real news person would look at past races to see if this kind of thing happened before. Since the news isn't reporting that it was very implausible, guess what? It's very plausible.
Nate Silver's chart shows this has been happening for the last year.
Special elections are all about who cares enough to turn out. This race was for a seat that's going to be up for reelection again in seven months. This race didn't poll close enough to make Republicans worry and they had better things to do with their time.
Shorter version: if you think the elections in November are going to be a +20 point swing to the Democrats, I have a bridge to sell you.
The buses the Democrats used to bring in voters from outside the district on the East Coast must have overheated in the Arizona sun.
Liz S says:
Republican Debbie Lesko has won the special election to replace Trent Franks, who resigned from office late last year. The "story" on this race--and the story always changes about what a GOP victory or loss means in the era of the resistance-- is that anything less than a double digit win by the Republican candidate is some kind of mandate on Trump's presidential victory. As of right now, the spread is about 6 points, very convenient.
I've heard the smart people tell me that Franks won by huge margins (20 points) in this district. But in 2016 and 2014 the Democrats didn't even run a candidate so it's not exactly the same situation.
What we need is card check inside the voting booth.
Some sort of way to encourage the "correct" kind of voting.
I hate to say it but i think there will be a blue wave in November. Far left libruls are angry and MSM has skewed the news so badly, uninformed masses think Trump is Hitler. MSM loves using authoritarian to describe Trump.
Here are the actual vote counts. Does anyone see where the 100,000 voters who stayed home came from?
Arizona’s 8th congressional district election, 2016
Republican Trent Franks (incumbent) 204,942 68.6%
Green Mark Salazar 93,954 31.4%
Total votes 298,896 100%
Republican hold
Arizona's 8th congressional district special election, 2018
Republican Debbie Lesko 91,390 52.6% -15.97
Democratic Hiral Tipirneni 82,318 47.4% +47.4
Total votes 173,708 100.00
Republican hold
I hate to say it but i think there will be a blue wave in November. Far left libruls are angry and MSM has skewed the news so badly, uninformed masses think Trump is Hitler.
2016 version: I hate to say it but i think Hillary will be President in November. Far left libruls are fired up about electing the first woman President and MSM has skewed the news so badly, uninformed masses think Trump is Hitler.
"...but whom I am to judge."
Nobody. Absolutely fucking nobody.
It is a lot like climate change. Whether it is up, down or sideways it is propaganda proof of the democrat media party rising.
Here is the problem for the liberals, AJ: they live in blue states, and blue districts.
Even if all those people came out and voted in a highly symbolic act, it wouldn't flip a single seat!
I live in a state with two D Senators and 9 D Congresspeople.
I love to tell my neighbors, "Sure, vote all you want. What's it going to matter?"
The "blue wave" in my state will have zero effect. And as we voted for Clinton in 2016, it would have zero effect in 2020 as well.
"A four hundred percent difference in the margin of victory between 5% and 21% seems significant, but whom I am to judge."
1. The blue wave changed from flipping districts to just getting a newly narrowed margin.
2. The Democratic Party candidate focused on what would appeal to the particular congressional district, which is not something the national candidate could do (or would do, since she planned to lose the clearly red states and made no appeal to them).
3. Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate.
The "blue wave" in my state will have zero effect. And as we voted for Clinton in 2016, it would have zero effect in 2020 as well.
You know what the blue wave can do in my state? Convince the people there to send all their money to the DNC in the hope they spread it around and make something happen.
That's why the blue wave is kept alive, because the DNC -- even with "Hitler" in the White House -- is doing a terrible job of raising money.
Think about that for a moment. With all the anti-Trump propaganda, the NRA is breaking fundraising records and the DNC is going further into debt.
The DNC originally reported $6.1 million in debt in its March 2018 FEC report filed on March 20 but amended that report on Monday to include an additional $162,368.64 in debt, bringing the DNC’s total debt to just under $6.3 million.
The Republican National Committee (RNC) has zero debt, according to the committee’s most recent FEC filings.
"...but whom I am to judge."
A grammar rebel?
The blue wave changed from flipping districts to just getting a newly narrowed margin.
I distinctly remember the MSNBC people telling viewers to wake up on the day after the election and look to find a narrowed margin of defeat.
/sarcasm
Blue wave? Unless you mean the constant cheering for liberal failures by the media, there is no blue wave.
"...but whom I am to judge."
Sam I am.
The Dems wave theory of sudden tsunami Trump hatred is an illusion. They need some way to out promise Trump that Trump hasn't already cornered with Border Security, Middle Class Tax Cuts and Foreign Policy Mastery.
On the social issues, Trump has a lock on the Evangelicals and most of the Black churches. He does that while being pro gay and ignoring skin color. Patriotism and respect for God has no skin color.
And he doesn't drink, but he defends his MD who does. And he has an old collection of Porn Stars and Models to go with a near perfect Family.
The Dems just need to abandon ship.
3. Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate.
Can't be repeated too often.
If there is a Blue Wave coming, it is mostly their money. Here, in MT, Jon Tester is already advertising heavily on TV, better than 6 months before the general election, making the point that he works for Montanans, and is damn mad when anyone tries to take our federal lands away from us (ignoring that Trump and Zinke have been moving hard to reverse what Obama did, and Tester tacitly approved, which included eliminating timbering, etc). Latest is that the evil Koch brothers have helped his opponent - ignoring that when the financials come out, Tester will very likely be seen to have raised 90% of his money out of state. Limousine, and even Gulstream, liberals from the two coasts have opened their wallets and are going to try to buy the election, and, thus, impeachment of Darth Trump, if they possibly can. The DNC may be broke, but these individual campaigns are far from broke, with the money on hand with the 10 Trump state Dems on the ballot this year very likely already dwarfing what the DNC has.
What I fully expect to see is somewhat what we saw with Crooked Hillary. I expect that they already have a setup where wealthy contributors can make large donations, 10-20 times the legal limit. The money is then split up and sent to these Senate campaigns. Maybe even do it for House seats that they think that they can pick up. Better to call it a Green Wave than a Blue one, since that is what is going to engulf everyone this election cycle - the bicoastal rich elites trying to buy the election, and their revenge.
Trump's victory has made Republicans too cocky (no, Lazlo) - they seem to be forgetting how close a call the Presidential election was, and there is an apparent assumption that "Now everyone is going to see the light, and we can stop working so hard at it!" You see that in the laziness of many of the REpublican Senators and Representatives, sloppiness in who gets selected for some of these candidates, and low voter turnout.
Of all of the bad reporting and one-sided opnionating that can be found on MSNBC, I really don't understand the Althouse complaint with this story.
This was a race in which the Republicans fielded a very good candidate, with some very good name recognition. And the Democrats fielded a political neophyte in what I understand was his first campaign of any kind.
It's a strong Republican district; MSNBC reported that.
The Republican won this special election; MSNBC accurately reported that, to the decimal point.
Percentages are important when we're talking about something as broad as 435 congressional seats, each with their own election. It makes sense, to talk about something like a 5% or a 7% overall shift in numbers from previous races. A 15% or 20% shift is startling and newsworthy.
I just have to believe, that Althouse is smart enough to understand that if there were something like a 7% shift in all votes for all Congressional seats in 2018, many Republicans would still get elected. But it would indeed be a "Blue Wave" insofar as that kind of general shift in the electorate (as a result of changed minds or changed turnout) could swing the House from a Republican majority to a Democratic majority.
MSNBC was reporting what was in fact news; that a district with a CPVI of R +13 performed as a district of R +7 (with a very good Republican candidate and neophyte Democratic candidate).
I had not known that Democrats had swung 40 state and federal legislative seats to their side during the Trump presidency; the MSNBC story reported that fact as well. It is a talking point, I have now learned, that even the lobbyist and Trump-booster Corey Lewandowski has cited, in his personal efforts to rally Republican voters.
www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2018/feb/15/corey-lewandowski/have-democrats-gained-50-seats-formerly-held-repub/
Any blue wave, if it occurs, would be more an indictment of Congressional Republicans than of President Trump. But the media certainly won't project it that way.
When I don't have a decent argument I have found that focusing on typos is a very compelling alternate strategy.
I agree with what some other people have said here. Namely that the blue wave will materialize as a real event in at least two places. The first one is in very blue districts and states the blue voters will come out en masse. And as Kevin (I think) pointed out that will not make a hill of beans difference. The other certain place you will see the blue wave is with blue voters/supporters donating money.
And historically, the party not in the White House picks up a bunch of seats in the off year elections. So, it would seem that the democrats have an advantage (at least in the house) this cycle, at least by the conventional wisdom.
However, it is my perception that Trump fights in ways that traditional politicians do not fight, and fights on all fronts. Trump voters were missed by all major polling organizations in the 2016 cycle.
I suspect that Campaign Trump will be out in full force this election cycle. Rallies for sure, but just like in the 2016 cycle lots and lots of people thought "Why is Trump doing that? That's now how you campaign!" Trump turned conventional wisdom on it's head for the last election, and it worked then (so I give them credit for knowing (or seeing) something that the Wizards of Smart missed. I suspect that Campaign Trump will be in the thick of this election cycle and will be just as non-conventional this time as last.
Here are my predictions (and I am wrong a lot):
1. Campaign Trump (PACS, the formal Trump 2020 campaign, Trump himself) will launch a coordinated message "Unemployment is down. Wages are up. ISIS is on the run. For the first time in a long time, it's morning in America again. And why would you vote for these other losers and undo all of that?"
2. The democrats will fail to pick up more than 20 seats in the house.
a republican wins election in a republican district... Big Surprise!
Chuck comes out TOTALLY supporting MSNBC .... Big Surprise!
Kevin: I live in PA and the Dems have successfully used their majority on the state supreme court to violate the state constitution by having the Court enact changes to voting districts. So yeah a blue wave here will cost us Repub seats.
Blogger Oso Negro said...
"Yes! Americans pine for gun grabbing, higher taxes, a lot more illegal immigration, and state-mandated homosexuality."
“I’ve just flown in from California, where they’ve made homosexuality legal. I thought I’d get out before they make it mandatory.” --Bob Hope
Usually the party out of power has more enthusiastic voters.
To some extent but the Dims have been stirred up by the Media and are acting crazy. This is their chance to impeach the evil Trump. This is the last chance.
I expect high turnout for Dims and this special election was a snoozer for the GOP.
In Tucson, the teachers are threatening a strike in spite of a promise of a 20% pay hike by the Governor. That should help get GOP voters out. There is nothing like the prospect of tax hikes to focus the mind of voters.
Pelosi is helping on a national basis. Reparations ! That's a good platform for the Dims.
Blogger is worse than usual this morning.
Chuck considering it was a special election where turnout was less than the usual regular election turnout and the election was about replacing a disgraced Republican I wouldn't make too much of it.
mockturtle said...
Any blue wave, if it occurs, would be more an indictment of Congressional Republicans than of President Trump. But the media certainly won't project it that way.
Christine O'Donnell
Sharron Angle
Todd Akin
Roy Moore
And other general election losers. Then, there are the Tea Party primary-challenger types who have gotten smoked in primaries too. By winners like John McCain, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell.
By the way; Orrin Hatch faced the same sort of failure to win the nomination for his seat in 2012, that Mitt Romney is now facing. Hatch won easily in his subsequent primary and then also in the general.
The DNC is not the money-conduit to Dem campaigns, the money takes other paths. The DNC is just a false front.
There is in fact a great deal of Dem money available, which explains why there was a Dem candidate in this election in the first place.
And over and over in these special elections the Dems have spent several times as much as the Reps.
And the Dem extremists are very enthusiastic and one can expect them to turn out in greater numbers in November.
The question is will greater Dem funding plus the enthusiasm whipped up by a tremendous ongoing MSM propaganda campaign be enough to overcome Rep structural advantages.
Well, we'll see what happens in November. Getting upset about other people predicting other things seems like a big waste of energy.
Here's the facts:
Average age of voter in that district is 70 years old.
There was a big swing in that district from past elections.
Demographics in that district make the swing surprising.
What will that mean for November? Yet to be determined.
Perhaps a better study of past election results would offer an average of the last three mid-term elections.
Q: Why would the unusual Trump-Clinton race be the standard for comparison?
A: Because is serves the purpose of those making the comparison.
@ Mockturtle - people historically like their own Congressional representative while hating Congress in general.
By liars like John McCain, who promised to "build that wall !"
FIFY
I am curious. Chuck is a proud Republican, yet instead of being glad that the Republican won (a "stop the bleeding" win, no less), he is out here spouting how the Democrats over performed and how Republicans are in trouble and need to throw out all conservatives and only and forever vote for Bill Kristol and Evan McMullin types, who are happy, nay, proud to be chummy with Democrat policies and dictatorial control.
The hard truth here is that in states like Utah, which are safe Republican states, we should be putting up solid, far right conservatives. Heck, The Democrats put socialists in their safe seats, why shouldn't we have someone from the John Birch society (except, of course, not racist against Jews)?
But no, Chuck only wants republican candidates that could lose graciously in Portland to be our only candidates everywhere.
Why would anyone vote for a candidate that no one can tell if they are a Republican or a Democrat? Joe Manchin is someone Chuck wants us to run as a Republican in all states. And the Mike Lee's? Hah, they are conservatives, so must be destroyed!
wwww:
The Democrats are in the process of importing a new electorate. Thanks for reinforcing that perspective with your "facts".
Also, the Chamber of Commerce Chuck-servatives are in 100% operational alignment with Democrats toward that goal.
I'd be the worst politician in history, barely edging out Hillary. Yet, running unopposed I'd figure a 20 point margin of victory was nothing to brag about.
Running against a (politically) decent and well financed nominee a 6 point margin of victory would be a miracle.
If the Dem had won by 54% to 47% it would have been reported as a massive victory.
In a 47-47 split world, the fight (albeit unreported) is for the middle 6%.
Chuckles and the GOP Establishment much prefer to be the loyal opposition so that they don't actually have to do anything except raise money and attend cocktail parties. They much prefer to associate with Democrats than Tea Party types who actually try to get things done and keep their campaign promises.
The fact that they knew from November 2016 to January 2017 that the Republicans would control both Congress and the Presidency...but they still had nothing ready to pass.
"The blue wave. It's there even when it's not there."
For some observers (using the term loosely), it's not what's in front of you, but what you'd like to see in front of you, that counts. Or, more succinctly, the narrative cannot be falsified by mere facts.
"The Democrats are in the process of importing a new electorate. Thanks for reinforcing that perspective with your "facts"."
?? Confused by your statement as that district has an average age of 70.
wwww:
Stay confused; it suits you.
Jefferson correctly observed that if you look at history, free republics are few and far between, and short-lived as well. I like to be hopeful, but there is a strong Mencken-Nock side of me that foresees a Blue Wave that will give us that final big push down that Road to Serfdom. With dopey liberty-phobes like Inga, ARM, etc., to cheer as the Land of the Free does a Thelma and Louise over the edge of the precipice.
?? Confused by your statement as that district has an average age of 70.
I don't know the average age of Tucson CD 2 but the TUSD children have a huge number of illegals and ESL students,
The teachers are threatening a strike because those citizens are not eager to raise taxes to educate those illegal children.
That's what was meant by "importing a new electorate."
ANY election where a Democrat wins by a similar % amount is portrayed as a comfortable win. At the least. But the narrative of a coming Democratic overwhelming triumph must be maintained. At all times. Even when the Democrats are already in charge!
Wow, Althouse has reading problems this week. Boom does not refer to intercourse. Coupling up refers to intercourse. Boom refers to “and that's all it takes, no extra effort or fuss”. That's why “boom, a baby is born” not “boom, a face some call Japanese, and then months later a baby is born”.
A four hundred percent difference in the margin of victory between 5% and 21% seems significant, but whom I am to judge. - ARM
Yeah. Because a special election in April is exactly the same as a presidential election in November.
Quick question: did the long time republican who retired face a democrat opponent in the last 2 elections?
If not, on top of a special election turnout model, one might assume that would impact the margin of victory.
Unless, of course, one were a lefty and/or a lefty LLR ally.
Obviously.
gilbar said... [hush][hide comment]
a republican wins election in a republican district... Big Surprise!
Chuck comes out TOTALLY supporting MSNBC .... Big Surprise!
And slyly attacking Althouse at the same time.
“A four hundred percent difference in the margin of victory between 5% and 21% seems significant, but whom I am to judge.”
It’s the trend. I guess no one has bothered to read the polls and follow these special elections. All the better for Democrats.
Kevin: I live in PA and the Dems have successfully used their majority on the state supreme court to violate the state constitution by having the Court enact changes to voting districts. So yeah a blue wave here will cost us Repub seats.
Fair enough. PA is truly a special case.
Kevin above wins the thread, with statistics and compassion.
The data clearly shows the number of Dem voters actually decreased; the margin was narrow because 100,000 Republicans didn't care enough to vote. There is no evidence that any R voters flipped D or that D had any higher turnout. Instead, in a special election in a safe district many R's stayed home.
Here are the actual vote counts. Does anyone see where the 100,000 voters who stayed home came from?
Arizona’s 8th congressional district election, 2016
Republican Trent Franks (incumbent) 204,942 68.6%
Green Mark Salazar 93,954 31.4%
Total votes 298,896 100%
Republican hold
Arizona's 8th congressional district special election, 2018
Republican Debbie Lesko 91,390 52.6% -15.97
Democratic Hiral Tipirneni 82,318 47.4% +47.4
Total votes 173,708 100.00
Republican hold
Here are the actual vote counts. Does anyone see where the 100,000 voters who stayed home came from?
Good observation. Inga is still hoping for some late fraud like the Democrats have pulled off in the past.
Not even Al Franken could find enough votes.
They'll have to do it over again in November. Ms. Tipimeni seems confident she'll get out more votes by then. I'm not in the 8th district but would have voted for Lesko. Mainly, I'm hoping Kelli Ward wins the GOP primary for a Senate run to fill Jeff Flake's [if anyone were ever aptly named it is he!] seat.
“The blue wave. It's there even when it's not there“
Sort of like climate change
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