Althouse: "On Monday, a Saudi-led military coalition battling Tehran-backed rebels in Yemen said it reserved the 'right to respond' to the missile attack on Riyadh at the weekend..."

November 6, 2017

"On Monday, a Saudi-led military coalition battling Tehran-backed rebels in Yemen said it reserved the 'right to respond' to the missile attack on Riyadh at the weekend..."

"... calling it a 'blatant military aggression by the Iranian regime which may amount to an act of war.'... Analysts said it was unclear how far Saudi Arabia would be willing to go in the escalating confrontation. The kingdom is in the midst of an unprecedented purge of its upper ranks, with dozens of senior figures arrested at the weekend, as 32-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman consolidates his hold on power. Prince Mohammed, who is also defence minister, is seen as a key supporter of the intervention in Yemen...."

Yahoo reports.

44 comments:

Howard said...: I hope the fuck we stay on the sidelines.; 11/6/17, 2:47 PM
buwaya said...: If Iran and Saudi start serious shooting across the Gulf there will be hell to pay.
The price of oil will go crazy.
Global recession.
The US will suffer a bit, though frackers will get very rich.; 11/6/17, 2:49 PM
J. Farmer said...: The Yemen quagmire is just one of the Crown Prince's many blunders. I will quote the invaluable Daniel Larison writing in The American Conservative:

The missile attack and the Saudi response to it illustrate very well the stupidity of the war on Yemen. Saudi territory was not under attack when the intervention began two and a half years ago, and their capital certainly wasn’t threatened. After thirty months of relentlessly and indiscriminately bombing Yemen’s cities and towns, Riyadh itself is now coming under attack. The war on Yemen has devastated Saudi Arabia’s neighbor, but it has also worsened Saudi Arabia’s own security. Instead of recognizing that the coalition’s war has failed, the Saudis and their allies are compounding their earlier mistakes by intensifying a blockade that had already created major famine and cholera crises. Unable to prevail in their senseless war, the coalition chooses to tighten its grip on the throats of a vulnerable, impoverished population. The Saudi-led coalition has just made their indefensible war even more obnoxious and cruel.

His writing is a useful corrective to the sheer volume of misinformation that is floating around regarding the Houthi rebels and the Saudi war against them. A collection of his writings on the topic can be found here.; 11/6/17, 2:50 PM
Anonymous said...: Do we expect this war -- Shia v Sunni -- not to happen? Either way they'll have to kill us, before or after, they decide that.; 11/6/17, 2:53 PM
J. Farmer said...: This is, in all probability, little more than a war of words. Considering how bogged down Saudi Arabia's forces have been in Yemen for the last couple of years, it is very unlikely that they would have the stomach for a conflict with the much larger Iran, especially considering that the consequences for such action would be far greater than the almost silence on the international stage of its pummeling of Yemen. To eradicate the myth of the Houthis as Iran proxies, I'd recommend this article:

Hitting Iran Where It Doesn’t Hurt: Why U.S. Intervention in Yemen Will Backfire; 11/6/17, 2:58 PM
Unknown said...: If Saudi Arabia and Iran go at it hammer and tongs; may it be a long and all consuming war. Shia v. Sunni, at long last?

Yes, Oil will hurt for a bit, but you can bet Trump will order the floodgates opened and we, the US, will benefit enormously. And if Islam is consumed in a huge civil war, the rest of humanity will be left alone.

Our one reliable ally Jordan will get rich off of being the sole trustworthy supply route to Iraq and Kuwait, too. And with Iran busy, maybe Israel can finally crush Hezbollah without too much resistance.

Of course, I note that J.Farmer is here to support Iran, as is usual.

--Vance; 11/6/17, 3:00 PM
Inga...Allie Oop said...: Let them fight it out among themselves. We should not involve ourselves.; 11/6/17, 3:20 PM
Ficta said...: "And if Islam is consumed in a huge civil war, the rest of humanity will be left alone."

Unfortunately I have real doubts that this is true; look what chaos in Syria and Libya has done to Europe.; 11/6/17, 3:34 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Vance:

Of course, I note that J.Farmer is here to support Iran, as is usual.

If by "support Iran," you mean "describe empirical reality," then yes, I suppose I am guilty. And I notice your comment included no substantive refutation of anything I said, as is usual.; 11/6/17, 3:44 PM
mockturtle said...: I hope the fuck we stay on the sidelines.

You and I both! It's so ridiculously ironic that we tend to side with the Wahhabi Sunnis over the Shiites when it's always been the Sunnis who have terrorized us and Europe. Not that I want any [further] indulgence of Shiite Iran, who has promised to destroy Israel, who call us devils and who are an unrelenting Islamic theocracy.

Get the hell out of the ME and stay the hell out! Please!!!!!; 11/6/17, 3:45 PM
jameswhy said...: Because our media is completely dysfunctional, it's no surprise that nobody seems able to connect the dots viz what is going on in KSA.

Recall, if you can, that President Trump's first overseas trip was to Saudi Arabia...sword dances and all..remember? He also made an address to some 40 Arab nations and told them they had to mske a choice: support the new US-Sunni alliance (Egypt, Jordan and KSA) or be seen as part of the Islamist enemy personified by Iran.

Prince Salman is all-in with Trump's alliance. He's 30-something and sees a future for KSA as the leader of the radical-free Middle East.

So far, we've seen the alliance put the squeeze on Qatar (one of the last supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is now reorganizing in Turkey) and the Prince himself is reported to have made a secret trip or Israel.

The "purge" that was launched this weekend is aimed at the craziest of the radical Wahabis in the ruling family. (They've been secretly supporting the Islamist nutjobs in Yemen). They are being eliminated in the name of "corruption." But Prince Salman is signalling that he's on board with Trump's grand plan. It sound unbelievable, but Trump may actually pull off a detente between Arab and Jew.

The best part of Trump's plan is that any war against Iran and the craxy mullahs will be fought by the Sunni nations, not us. I'm sure Trump will sell them all the tanks, planes and missles they want (he's a businessman, after sll) but will mot commit huge numbers of troops. Hell, he may even get the Israeli army to fight alongside the Kingdom! Yowzah; 11/6/17, 4:02 PM
Hagar said...: Somebody has not been paying attention. The governments of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Israel have been best buddies for some time now. Not for mutual love exactly, but Israel has nukes, the Saudis have money, and Egypt has bodies.; 11/6/17, 4:08 PM
Lance said...: but you can bet Trump will order the floodgates opened

Since when does the President control U.S. oil production? Granted Obama wanted to control it, and succeeded in suppressing production on federal lands along with blocking a few pipelines. But thankfully production skyrocketed in spite of his efforts.; 11/6/17, 4:23 PM
mockturtle said...: Salman is hoping to diversify the Saudi economy since oil is no longer a dependable source of income and creating a more moderate environment is necessary to this end. However, I suspect he is underestimating the backlash.; 11/6/17, 4:25 PM
buwaya said...: "Salman is hoping to diversify the Saudi economy since oil is no longer a dependable source of income and creating a more moderate environment is necessary to this end. However, I suspect he is underestimating the backlash."

I think there is no effective way to diversify the Saudi economy. The people lack the ability to make a go of the modern world, as in providing products and services beyond that of serving as hosts of the Mecca pilgrimage. There has been a great deal spent on this already, with no results.

And the backlash may be fatal, as you say.

Its a giant gamble.; 11/6/17, 4:42 PM
William said...: The natural progression of things in the Middle East is from bad to genuinely horrible to awful beyond belief. I don't know what is the absolute worst course of action for Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Iran to take, but I'm certain they will take it......You would think that rulers like Qaddafi and Saddam are the nadir and that after them things would get better. Wrong. Against all odds, the Libyans and Iraqis have proven that there are bigger assholes than Qaddafi and Saddam in the Middle East......I suppose they had it worse in Russia. They went from Czar Nicholas to Lenin to Stalin, but the Middle East is not where you go to observe prudence and statesmanship.; 11/6/17, 4:46 PM
J. Farmer said...: @jameswhy:

He also made an address to some 40 Arab nations and told them they had to mske a choice: support the new US-Sunni alliance (Egypt, Jordan and KSA) or be seen as part of the Islamist enemy personified by Iran.

First, in what sense is their a "new US-Sunni alliance?" Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia have been tied to the Pentagon hip for decades now. Egypt receives billions of dollars of US taxpayer welfare. And how can you possibly claim that the "Islamist enemy" is "personified by Iran?" Whether it is Al Qaeda, ISIS, or their various franchisees, the enemy has been radical salafi jihadists, who are all Sunni. Iran has supported Shiite Iraq and the Alawaite minority ruling class of Syria against ISIS.

So far, we've seen the alliance put the squeeze on Qatar (one of the last supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is now reorganizing in Turkey) and the Prince himself is reported to have made a secret trip or Israel.

The Saudi-led attempts at isolating Qatar have backfired spectacularly and have had the predictable result of pushing Qatar closer to Iran. During Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia, he praised the relationship with Qatar and suggested selling them more US military equipment.

The "purge" that was launched this weekend is aimed at the craziest of the radical Wahabis in the ruling family.

What is your evidence for this, and why would the Kingdom need to do "in the name of corruption." They could just as easily claiming they were doing it to combat extremism. Saudi Arabia routinely arrests imams that they accuse of radicalism. The most prominent arrest in the purge was Al-Waleed bin Talal. How could he possibly be considered "the craziest of the radical Wahabis in the ruling family?"; 11/6/17, 4:46 PM
Hagar said...: If the House of Saud falls violently, the revolution will spread all around, Israel will be in the middle of it, and if Israel is endangered, the U.S. will be there with bells on.

My opinion, J. Farmer's opinion, your opinion do not matter; that is just the way it is; 11/6/17, 5:03 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Hagar:

Claims about the impending collapse of the Saudi regime have been going around for almost 40 years. I am not holding my breath for it to happen. Also, there are at probably more than 2,000 members of the House of Saudi who wield power and influence in the country. As for "if Israel is endangered, the U.S. will be there with bells on," Israel has been involved in about 10 wars since the early 1970s, the US has not been "there with bells on" for any of them.; 11/6/17, 5:11 PM
buwaya said...: " the US has not been "there with bells on" for any of them."

1973
Massive logistics effort.

And to some degree in 1980

I doubt anyone there has much, anymore, in the way of conventional forces that could threaten Israel. All the old Soviet-supplied armies with what passed for high tech have rusted away or been consumed in the Syrian war.

The only threats to Israel are unconventional.; 11/6/17, 5:30 PM
Earnest Prole said...: Our ally is fighting a civil war within and a proxy war with Iran on its southern border -- what could possibly go wrong?; 11/6/17, 5:44 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Ernest Prole:

Our ally is fighting a civil war within and a proxy war with Iran on its southern border -- what could possibly go wrong?

Saudi Arabia is not our ally. If anything, they are a client state. Also, they are not "fighting a civil war within" and the war against Yemen is not a "proxy war with Iran." Iran has very limited involvement in the Yemeni war, and the Houthi rebels are not their proxies.; 11/6/17, 5:53 PM
Lucien said...: The Climate Change Warriors are a bigger threat to the oil states than to anyone else. Who's going to care about those countries once no one needs their oil? The fact that they also export terrorists will not be a selling point.

So they'll be left to the tender mercies of the Israelis.; 11/6/17, 5:57 PM
buwaya said...: "So they'll be left to the tender mercies of the Israelis."

Who will brutally leave them alone.; 11/6/17, 5:59 PM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: Saudi's and Iranians shooting it out? Like the Spanish Civil War, sounds like a win for liberal democracy.; 11/6/17, 6:03 PM
Clyde said...: stever said...
Do we expect this war -- Shia v Sunni -- not to happen? Either way they'll have to kill us, before or after, they decide that.

They claim that there are a billion Muslims. They aren't an endangered species, of whatever stripe they are. It would be a shame if they chose to thin the herd.; 11/6/17, 6:08 PM
MaxedOutMama said...: What's going on in KSA is a huge story and will of course have regional implications.; 11/6/17, 6:11 PM
Michael K said...: The war on Yemen has devastated Saudi Arabia’s neighbor, but it has also worsened Saudi Arabia’s own security.

I'm not sure about this. Yemeni rebels were supported by Iran. I'm not sure the threat was made any worse.

The Saudis have a serious problem since so many oil field and refinery workers are Shia.

I don't see a good guy in all this.

Hug a fracker today.; 11/6/17, 6:40 PM
JackWayne said...: There are those not looking at the big picture. They appear to me to be mostly Libertarian; people that I consider to be somewhat Utopian. Part of their Utopian dream is to withdraw from the American Empire. A very worthwhile goal but done precipitously or not well, it will cause untold suffering. As I see it, the current pieces are:
There is an Islamic Reformation underway and no one knows if we will see the liberalization of Islam or a return to medieval Islam,
The weakling Obama allowed the Russian nose into the Middle East tent and that’s trouble for the US,
The weakling Obama green-lighted the Iranian nuclear bomb,
Saudi Arabia is in the beginning of an economic crisis,
China is active in Afghanistan, angling for a piece of the rich mineral pie,
Pakistan is a dangerous competitor to the US,
And there are other currents which are difficult to interpret. As much as I dislike the American Empire and how it is bankrupting us, i dont see withdrawal as a valid option right now. Withdrawing will result in our 2 biggest competitors encouraging Al Queda to harry us harder both in the ME and at home. I doubt that Tillerson can bring us to a safe port because I doubt he has any vision about how to get us out of Empire safely. I think the first step is to pry Russia out of the ME by any means necessary. Their interest in Saudi Arabia is intense and the weakling Obama never recognized their machinations to that end.; 11/6/17, 6:44 PM
mockturtle said...: Michael K recommends: Hug a fracker today.

Good idea. If I knew any, I would.; 11/6/17, 6:47 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Jack Wayne:

There is an Islamic Reformation underway and no one knows if we will see the liberalization of Islam or a return to medieval Islam,

I do not think any such "Reformation" is "underway," and Islam itself is not structured anything like Latin Christendom and do not see how any such "reformation' would even work itself out. When do you suppose this "reformation" began and how will we know its outcome?

The weakling Obama allowed the Russian nose into the Middle East tent and that’s trouble for the US,

Huh? The main impetus to Russian action in Syria was to protect their naval facilities in Tarsus. The Russians have had this facility since the early 1970s and is very strategically important to the Russians. Without, Russian vessels operating in the Mediterranean would be required to pass through the Turkish Straits and up the Black Sea in order to be serviced. Russians supporting the Syrian regime against a radical Islamic insurgency is not "trouble for the US."

The weakling Obama green-lighted the Iranian nuclear bomb,

Utter nonsense. The JCPOA significantly increases the time it would take for Iran to produce a weapon and places significant limits on their nuclear production capabilities.

Pakistan is a dangerous competitor to the US,

In what regard?

Withdrawing will result in our 2 biggest competitors encouraging Al Queda to harry us harder both in the ME and at home.

Wait, who are our "2 biggest competitors?" And what does "encouraging Al Queda to harry us harder both in the ME and at home." Al Qaeda is a big nothing that was almost totally supported by bin Laden's bank account. The Al Qaeda that attacked us on 9/11 does not even exist anymore. And they carried out their attack on us by boarding commercial flights and arriving in the country on visas. How does staying bogged down in endless quagmires in the Middle East protect us from such a threat?; 11/6/17, 6:58 PM
D.E. Cloutier said...: New book from Oxford University Press:

"Tribes and Politics in Yemen: A History of the Houthi Conflict"
By Marieke Brandt

Description:

"Tribes and Politics in Yemen tells the story of the Houthi conflict in Sa'dah Province, Yemen, as seen through the eyes of the local tribes. In the West the Houthi conflict, which erupted in 2004, is often defined through the lenses of either the Iranian-Saudi proxy war or the Sunni-Shia divide. Yet, as experienced by locals, the Houthi conflict is much more deeply rooted in the recent history of Sa'dah Province. Its origins must be sought in the political, economic, social and sectarian transformations since the 1960s civil war and their repercussions on the local society, which is dominated by tribal norms. From the civil war to the Houthi conflict these transformations involve the same individuals, families and groups, and are driven by the same struggles over resources, prerogatives, and power. This book is based on years of anthropological fieldwork expertise both on the ground and through digital anthropological approaches. It offers a detailed account of the local complexities of the Houthi conflict and its historical background and underscores the absolute imperative of understanding the highly local, personal, and non-ideological nature of internal conflict in Yemen."

Author info:

"Marieke Brandt is a researcher at the Institute for Social Anthropology (ISA) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna. Her research focuses on tribalism, tribal genealogy and history, and tribe-state relations in Southwest Arabia."

You can buy the book at Amazon.; 11/6/17, 7:42 PM
JackWayne said...: Islamic Reformation began with Wahhabi.
How soon some of us forget what really happened in Syria. A weakling allowed Russia into the country. Of course they have “interests” there. A strong President would have prevented it.
Interesting that someone who recommends American Conservative believes that Iran will get the bomb on our schedule.
Pakistan is a nuclear power and has been blocking us in Afghanistan. Maybe you don’t know that.
If you think that China and Russia won’t use the Islamic radicals as proxies, please check with the Norks for how hard China is helping us there.
And I indicated I’d like to end the American Empire. I consider that started in 1898. So I think it will probably take 100 years or more to unwind the Empire. You are deluded if you think a precipitous withdrawal from the ME is the way to start.; 11/6/17, 7:43 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Jack Wayne:

Islamic Reformation began with Wahhabi.

If you mean Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab, then the "reformation" has been going on since the middle of the 18th century? Wahhabists are a small fraction of total Muslims and could hardly be considered a "reformation" movement, being mostly localized to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.

How soon some of us forget what really happened in Syria. A weakling allowed Russia into the country. Of course they have “interests” there. A strong President would have prevented it.

How? As I said, Russia had already been in the country for over 40 years. And what was Russia trying to accomplish in Syria? Propping up a client regime in the face of an Islamic insurgency? It's in our interest that Assad keep power in Syria, as opposed to it turning into yet another failed state in the regime. See Libya, for example.

Interesting that someone who recommends American Conservative believes that Iran will get the bomb on our schedule.

No, I said exactly what I said, "The JCPOA significantly increases the time it would take for Iran to produce a weapon and places significant limits on their nuclear production capabilities." You've said nothing to shake my confident in that assessment.

Pakistan is a nuclear power and has been blocking us in Afghanistan. Maybe you don’t know that.

Neither of which makes them a "dangerous competitor to the US."

If you think that China and Russia won’t use the Islamic radicals as proxies, please check with the Norks for how hard China is helping us there.

Where do we have strategic interests in which China and Russia would benefit from using "Islamic radicals as proxies," whatever that is supposed to mean?

And I indicated I’d like to end the American Empire. I consider that started in 1898. So I think it will probably take 100 years or more to unwind the Empire. You are deluded if you think a precipitous withdrawal from the ME is the way to start.

"The commonest error in politics is sticking to the carcasses of old policies." -Marquess of Salisbury; 11/6/17, 8:43 PM
steve uhr said...: Trump is taking sides in the purges. Let's hope he took the winning side.; 11/6/17, 8:46 PM
Michael K said...: Michael K recommends: Hug a fracker today.

Good idea. If I knew any, I would.

The son of a friend of mine was a second year engineering student at U of A. I suggested that he look into Petroleum Engineering as a career. When he got his BS, the fracking industry was in a slump so he stayed for an MS in Engineering.

Great kid. Plays classical piano. Big good looking kid. His mother home schooled her boys part of the time.

He is interested in fracking.; 11/6/17, 9:24 PM
The Godfather said...: Based on history, I can confidently predict that whatever the US does, or does not do, will turn out to have been a stupid, incompetent, and nefarious mistake. This is true with resoect to any existing or future conflict in the ME, North Africa, or West Asia. In a year or two if you think I'm wrong, let me know.; 11/6/17, 9:33 PM
Jay Vogt said...: This is all prep for the Saudi Aramco IPO. Morgan Stanley is lead banker. They've told the young prince that he's got to clean the kingdom up sufficiently that institutional money can buy in. Even though the float will be a de minimis tranche, it is a huge boat load of money. It simply won't price with only fund and retail money. It's also the reason that "our friends the Saudis" are easing up on women's rights (barely), but hopefully enough that pension advisors can make the buy w/o doing a lot of explaining.

Once the the US institutional money is invested in the Kingdom (which by the way is a monumental mistake), the the US will be further bound to protect those investments by all means necessary.

Just when we would could possibly see a glimmer of an opportunity to get our military out of the middle east, the SA IPO will guarantee we'll have to stick around for another 50 years.

. . . . . . Yea!; 11/6/17, 10:21 PM
D.E. Cloutier said...: The Godfather: " I can confidently predict that whatever the US does, or does not do, will turn out to have been a stupid, incompetent, and nefarious mistake."

I can't argue with that. Almost every major problem in my life had its genesis in a government decision.; 11/6/17, 10:24 PM
Ray - SoCal said...: SA has shared interests with the us, but ally?

Entire ME is very disfunctionsl - Inshallah.

Iran is supporting at a very low cost Rebels in Yemen.

Yemen has huge issues, over population, and horrible economy. Khat production is huge. Inshallah.

Wahabists were founded as reformers, for a pure Islam. And with oil money have spread that strict version of Islam worldwide. Inshallah; 11/6/17, 10:25 PM
Jay Vogt said...: Ray said...SA has shared interests with the us . . .

If by "shared interests" you mean that we defend them, I agree; 11/6/17, 10:32 PM
mockturtle said...: Just when we would could possibly see a glimmer of an opportunity to get our military out of the middle east, the SA IPO will guarantee we'll have to stick around for another 50 years.

Gosh, Jay, I do hope you're wrong but it sounds like something Tillerson may have had a hand in. As my recently departed mother was fond of saying, "The whole thing stinks to high heaven."; 11/6/17, 10:42 PM
Browndog said...: jameswhy said...

Because our media is completely dysfunctional, it's no surprise that nobody seems able to connect the dots viz what is going on in KSA.

Great post. Saudi Arabia is amid a major reform, "moving beyond 1979" as the Prince said. The Wahabbi's are being cast aside...finally. The media has no interest in reporting that the Middle-East is becoming more stable under Trump.; 11/7/17, 7:22 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Browndog:

Great post. Saudi Arabia is amid a major reform, "moving beyond 1979" as the Prince said. The Wahabbi's are being cast aside...finally.

And of course we should take the Crown Prince who orchestrated the purge's word for it and accept his statements at face value. I mean, when would a head of government ever lie for self-serving reasons.

I'll repeat a point I made earlier. The most high profile member of the purged group was Al-Waleed bin Talal, who is not a conservative Wahabbi. In fact, most of the princelings simply pay lip service to Wahhabism. Why we need to engage in mental gymnastics to justify an autocratic ruler's purge of rivals and consolidation of power is beyond me.; 11/7/17, 7:50 AM