September 9, 2017

"The storm surge is what really scares me. Potential 12 feet of storm surge. Think about that. You cannot survive this."

"Look, it’s getting late. If you’re not on the road on the west coast by noon, you need to get to a shelter, get to a friend’s house if you’re in an evacuation zone. Get off the road."

Said Florida Governor Rick Scott.

55 comments:

Fernandinande said...

12 feet of storm surge...by noon.

Science tells us that's 1 foot per hour.

Humperdink said...

Curious as to how many AA regulars or their relatives, will be impacted by the hurricane. My sister and her daughter (Port Charlotte) fled to NC. Her husband is staying (first responder). Sister-in-law's first floor condo has bulls-eye on it in Naples.

Facebook friend's son is hunkering down in Key West (unwise at best).

HT said...

Good article on artificiality yet extreme habitability of South Florida @ Politico:

But the fundamental issue is that South Florida is an artificial civilization, engineered and air-conditioned to insulate its residents and tourists from the realities of its natural landscape. We call animal control when alligators wander into our backyards, and it doesn’t occur to us that we’ve wandered into the alligators’ backyard. Most residents of suburban communities carved out of Everglades swampland—Weston, Wellington, Miami Springs, Miami Lakes—are blissfully oblivious to the intricate water diversion strategies that their government officials use to keep them dry every day. Most South Floridians don’t think much about climate change, either, even though it’s creating more intense storms, even though the rising seas around Miami Beach now flood low-lying neighborhoods on sunny days during high tide. People tend not to think too much about existential threats to the places they live. They just live.

Tank said...

Looks like it's going to be mostly west of us (southern coast of NC).

MayBee said...

Gov Scott and the government of Florida are doing a great job of thinking of solutions. I've been watching on the weather channel: expedia.com is reporting real time hotel vacancy, airbnb is hooking up free housing with people who need it, gas buddy is reporting real time gas availability, they've asked hotels to waive no-pet policy, they've gotten rid of tolls and have made the shoulder of the highway available for driving.
Really smart and forward-thinking.

AReasonableMan said...

Fernandinande said...
Science tells us that's 1 foot per hour.


This is a fair point, but it can still trap the infirm and people on islands.

Guildofcannonballs said...

"...we’ve wandered into the alligators’ backyard."

Nope.

Anywhere we humans go in the universe is our home, as we are made of it and it us.

As Bill Clinton didn't just wander into all those many vaginas, sometimes even violently barbaric and inhumanely, do we also not wander but instead plan-and-assault the environs worldwide, hoping to hear the lamentations of nature's weak ass birches and glades.

AReasonableMan said...

Humperdink said...
Curious as to how many AA regulars


Father of my daughter's friend has already gone down there to start preparing for the emergency response, power restoration in his case. This happened in the last storm to hit here, crews from the neighboring states came in to fix restore power. These storms represent a lot of long, difficult work days for these guys.

Fernandinande said...

AReasonableMan said...
This is a fair point,


It was a dumb-joke point: 12 feet and 12 noon.

Science actually tells me, at least, that I have no idea how fast a storm surge comes in.

Robert Cook said...

"Anywhere we humans go in the universe is our home, as we are made of it and it us."


Ha! Remember that when you enter an environment--or an environment encroaches upon where you happen to be--that erases you from the universe...evicts you from your home, as it were.

As for your Tourette's-like blahblahblah about Bill Clinton, apropos of absolutely nothing, well...I think they have medication now that can help with that.

Kate said...

"Curious as to how many AA regulars or their relatives, will be impacted by the hurricane. My sister and her daughter (Port Charlotte) fled to NC. Her husband is staying (first responder). Sister-in-law's first floor condo has bulls-eye on it in Naples."

My cousin, who manages a Trader Joe's in Naples, has been told to stay and keep the store open. Ooookay.

Humperdink said...

Headline: "US forecast models have been pretty terrible during Hurricane Irma"

" ... the average error of the European model with respect to Irma has been about 175km in its position forecast ...... particularly embarrassing for NOAA, however, is the comparison between the European model and the various US forecast modeling efforts. The average 120-hour error of the GFS (the US) model is about 475km."

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/us-forecast-models-have-been-pretty-terrible-during-hurricane-irma/

AReasonableMan said...

Fernandinande said...
I have no idea how fast a storm surge comes in.


It doesn't come in that fast, it just adds to the rising tide. The hurricane itself moves slowly. Sorry I missed the 'joke' but I really don't understand how so many people get caught out in what is a fairly predictable situation. In the pictures from the Caribbean there are a lot of damaged cars close to the shoreline. I can't understand why people were unable to move cars and other equipment out of the reach of the storm surge. There is not much you can do about the wind but the storm surge is largely avoidable except for the buildings and the boats.

mezzrow said...

Father of my daughter's friend has already gone down there to start preparing for the emergency response, power restoration in his case. This happened in the last storm to hit here, crews from the neighboring states came in to fix restore power. These storms represent a lot of long, difficult work days for these guys.

Tree guys from all over the eastern US are mobilzing. I had plenty of conversations with a crew from upstate NY who cleared up most of the problems around me right after Matthew went past last year. We had lots of water stockpiled and I just kept bringing it to them as they worked my neighbor's tree. Storm response is exponentially better than it was twenty years ago. They will have an exhausting yet profitable month.

Oso Negro said...

@ARM - check yourself. My personal experience is that it comes in pretty goddamned fast. Check the Pier 21 buoy readings in Galveston during Hurricane Ike. You will see.

Jack Wayne said...

Scott is after the "I'm a compassionate politician looking out for your best interests" vote. The current cone is mostly offshore west of Florida. Given NOAA's record, it's possible that Irma will miss Florida entirely.

Alex said...

Nobody can tell me whether I can survive it or not. I know that I can breath under the water for a LONG, LONG TIME!

traditionalguy said...

My Daughter's family almost came up yesterday, until their neighbor who was out of town lent them their generator. We will miss the fun of having them and their three teenagers, a golden retriever and cat move in for a week. But now the models have their consensus center blue line going directly over their house, and the wife is getting extremely worried.

But I told her they will be fine. A hurricane is a super loud noise event that rains sideways and blows over everything outside including palm and live oaks trees onto the roads and power lines. They live in the Fishhawk development that is 50 miles due east of Tampa Bay. By now I-75's traffic is too heavy for them to change their minds.

Robert Cook said...

"My cousin, who manages a Trader Joe's in Naples, has been told to stay and keep the store open. Ooookay."

That's capitalism, Jake.

AReasonableMan said...

Oso Negro said...
@ARM - check yourself.


In this document Figure 37 shows the timing of the storm surge at the Galveston Pier 21 station. It is slower than 2 meters in 24 hours. I would not have described this as fast. It is nothing like a tsunami.

During Sandy I went down to the boat yard repeatedly to fret over whether or not I was going to lose our boat to the surge. We didn't, by less than a foot, because the surge didn't coincide exactly with high tide, unlike what happened in NJ. They were some long hours waiting to see exactly where the peak would be.

HT said...

"Anywhere we humans go in the universe is our home, as we are made of it and it us. "

God set Job straight.

tim in vermont said...

Most South Floridians don’t think much about climate change, either, even though it’s creating more intense storms, even though the rising seas around Miami Beach now flood low-lying neighborhoods on sunny days during high tide.

According to models, not observation. 95% of models think that the observations are wrong.

tim in vermont said...

Sea levels have been rising since the end of the last ice age.

Clyde said...

I live in the Lehigh Acres, Florida, area. I'm well inland and about 20 feet elevation. I'm not worried about storm surge here, just the wind and rain. I'm looking at periods of sustained winds over 100 mph, and probably at least five hours of sustained hurricane force winds. Maybe another 20+ hours of tropical storm force. This is going to be a very, very bad storm for the entire southwest Florida area, especially along the coast where storm surge is likely to be very destructive. This is pretty much the worst-case scenario for Collier, Lee and Charlotte Counties. If you're the religious sort, say a prayer for us.

tim in vermont said...

Sea level has been rising at a constant rate of about 8 inches a century for the past 100 years. If neighborhoods in Miami are flooding, perhaps a lack of planning is in play.

Sydney said...

I have several aunts and uncles and cousins who live there, but mostly on the eastern side. They have all decided to shelter in place.

Jason said...

Storm surge happens like people go bankrupt: slowly at first, and then all at once.

It's measured with numbers on bouys and yardsticks, but that's not how it affects coastlines. Once the water is high enough to crest a barrier, like the last sand dune, or to find a way around it, it comes in fast, and funnels in to concentrated areas.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

If you’re not on the road on the west coast by noon, you need to get to a shelter, get to a friend’s house if you’re in an evacuation zone. Get off the road.

Jason said...

I'm in Orlando. We are expecting maybe category 1 or 2 winds, but we're on the dirty side of the storm.

In 2004-2007 I was a headquarters company commander in the Florida Army National Guard. We chased hurricanes all ove the state, one after the other. Charley, Frances, Jeanne, Rita, Wilma, Katrina. A tropical storm wot's name I can't remover. Irene?

We've got some amazingly good state level emergency officials. I've been in the EOCs and the conference calls and have seen them work. They picked up some of my very best NCOs in retirement jobs. These are good men and women who make sound and timely decisions. Other states send their people to Florida to learn large scale emergency management.

If I'm going to ride out a bad storm anywhere in the country, I want to be in Florida.

Humperdink said...

I get amused when I see the phrase climate change and the word hurricane used in the same paragraph.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane

Galveston https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTbTHlTmDX8

Ignorance is Bliss said...

Robert Cook said...

As for your Tourette's-like blahblahblah about Bill Clinton, apropos of absolutely nothing, well...I think they have medication now that can help with that.

Yeah, but how are you going to get Bill Clinton to take the saltpeter?

Mark said...

Curious as to how many AA regulars or their relatives, will be impacted by the hurricane.

My sister and brother-in-law are on the east coast barrier islands at mid-point. They have boarded up the house and evacuated in-land to their friends' house to hunker down. They've been there, done that many times.

Michael K said...

about Bill Clinton, apropos of absolutely nothing, well...I think they have medication now that can help with that.

Actually, medication is not necessary. Somebody should have cut off Bill Clinton's nuts years ago.

My daughter in law's sister is in Tampa and should have left days ago. She could not make up her mind and yesterday left for Orlando by another highway. I hope she is OK. Her husband is a Seabee and in Guantanamo.

Expat(ish) said...

We live in Naples, FL (I kind of hate saying that on the internet, you know?) and last night when I went to bed the track for Irma had move 100 miles west to draw a line over us. Great.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/095407.shtml?gm_track#contents

This morning at 5am it was revised to be 25 miles further west (approx) and is hitting Cape Coral. So I feel much better as that decreases my time in the big wind from 6 hours to <2. Ish.

We have a modern (2000's) built cinderblock single story house with a low profile wind related roof. Our lanai is clear of pre-flying objects, and our storm shutters are up on all our windows and sliders. (Side note, the rear-most sliding glass door shutter opens from the inside. Of course.) We are 17' above sea level and 6 miles from the coast, so a 12' surge isn't going to get to us.

And thankfully it hasn't rained much in the last week, so 8-10" of rain isn't going to do anything except re-fill the ponds.

All our electrical is buried in this part of Collier.

So we are staying, as are about 400 families out of the 800 in our development.

I'm with @Jason, FL is where I want to be after the storm, not ATL.

-XC

Fritz said...

Fernandinande said...
AReasonableMan said...
This is a fair point,

It was a dumb-joke point: 12 feet and 12 noon.

Science actually tells me, at least, that I have no idea how fast a storm surge comes in.


Go here, and watch in almost real time at Naples FL, at least as long as the tide gauge holds out (you can see the projection now, and it's damn fast).

Naples Storm surge

Mark said...

when I went to bed the track for Irma had move 100 miles west to draw a line over us

I'm no weather scientist obviously, but looking at the track of the past few days, while it did make a slight left turn to the west, it would have to take about a 70 degree hard right turn to go northward up the Florida coast. What would cause it to make such a hard turn?

Owen said...

NOAA shows rise in sea level: 2.7 mm/Year +/- a few tenths. That does not reflect isostatic rebound/subsidence as the planet continues to shrug off the last glaciation.

For the alarmunists, 3 mm/Year is 300 mm/century or about a foot. There has been no material change in the rate.

We now return you to our regular Hair On Fire weather reporting.

Expat(ish) said...

@Mark - my grandfather used to joke that they named hurricanes after women for a reason.

I feel like one of those people who becomes an expert at Curling every Winter Olympics, but I understand that 'canes move around due to water temperature, other pressure systems in front of them, the presence of land and etc etc. I also understand the slow moving storms change directions more often, and Irma is pretty slow.

FYI, it looks like it moved a bit (10 miles) farther west since 8am. Again, without junior HS geometry I can't quantify how much better that is, but I bet it trims 20 minutes or more off our wind time.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/095407.shtml?hwind120#wcontents

Give an idea of the wind width - which is much narrower than the news pro0n people make it sound like.

Cheers.

-XC

rhhardin said...

The storm surge gets you pregnant.

Bataille:

The sea continuously jerks off.

David said...

"when I went to bed the track for Irma had move 100 miles west to draw a line over us"

About 36 yours ago the center of the cone of probability was tracking right over my house in the South Carolina low country. Now we are outside that cone entirely.

That of course is good for us. Very good. But bad for many others. I hope not very bad.

Bill Peschel said...

FWIW, my sis-in-law at Merritt Island (on the map, it's on the east coast just south of the skin tag popping out in the middle of the state) is staying in place. Her house overlook the intercoastal waterway.

She wrote an hour ago they expect a 1-3 foot surge, mostly because Cape Canerval has a breakwater.

MadisonMan said...

Storm surge increase is highly variable, a function of wind direction and bathymetry and tidal cycle. You cannot generalize as is done upthread. The storm surge with the 1938 Hurricane in RI, for example, actually did surge inland.

Most of the people I know are on the east coast of FL, not the Gulf Coast, but there are several Gulf Coasters who are right on the water. I suspect they will lose their homes, but we'll see. It's unfortunate that some early evacuees from the Atlantic Coast went over to the Gulf Coast. There's a tension between waiting too long and getting the best forecast.

Known Unknown said...

So Rick Scott is sending people directly into the path of the storm as it hits Fort Myers? That's on the "west coast."

AReasonableMan said...

MadisonMan said...
Storm surge increase is highly variable, a function of wind direction and bathymetry and tidal cycle. You cannot generalize as is done upthread. The storm surge with the 1938 Hurricane in RI, for example, actually did surge inland.


Comparing accounts of relatively old storms like the 1938 storm with the responses now possible with the accurate forecasts of modern meteorology is a bit difficult. I don't doubt that people quickly felt overwhelmed in 1938, but this is largely because they had no clue what was happening and naturally expected the sea to stay more or less where it always had been. This being said, that storm was unusually fast moving, according to wiki up to 70 mph, so things probably did happen pretty quickly. Again according to wiki, "In New York Harbor, the waters rose 7 feet in a half-hour". That is fast, not tsunami fast, but still pretty fast.

Rabel said...

Florida. Irma's been riding straight down the road with her right turn blinker on for the last 200 miles. I think she's about to make that turn.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

I hope that everyone who is affected is safe or getting to safely. I sincerely hope that the destruction of property is minimal and loss of lives is none.

However.........Hurricanes have been happening for thousands and hundreds of thousands of years. The Carib Indians had a name for one of their Gods, Huracan. The Mayan Indians also had a similar God. Hurricanes are not a mystery. Nor are they always a big surprise.

Huracan was one of the major gods in the Mayan pantheon. He was identified as the god who caused natural catastrophes by invoking natural elements such as the wind, fire and earth. He is considered one of the major gods who were involved in the creation of the world and mankind, according to the Mayan mythology.

Long before there were such things as the National Weather forecasting agencies or scientific meteorology the Native Americans were not necessarily able to predict the events, but were not caught flatfooted. They were aware of the weather and through generations of experience were also aware of what might happen.

The precision that we are used to having is a zillion times better. The advanced warning is also much better. There is no excuse for being caught up unaware by a hurricane. Granted. Not everyone has the ability or the means to evacuate and needs to have as much help in getting protection or getting out as warranted. I agree with the officials who have stated that if you haven't taken their warnings seriously....don't expect to be rescued in the middle of the event.

The idea that we should blame Global Warming for something that has been a pattern of nature for thousands upon thousands of years is totally ridiculous. The idea that Trump is the cause of the hurricanes or that Mother Nature is somehow mad at Trump is beyond delusional.

The Godfather said...

Way upthread someone posted something from Politico that claimed that folks who live in Florida are "insulate[d] . . . from the realities of its natural landscape". I lived in south Florida for 6 years, and I call bullshit on that. If you live in the southern part of Florida, you are near either the ocean (or Gulf) or the Everglades. Each one is a freaking big piece of nature, and you are likely to see something scary from one or the other (or both) on a regular basis. As for being "blissfully oblivious to the intricate water diversion strategies that their government officials use to keep them dry every day", while I was there the government decided to lower the level of Lake Okeechobee in anticipation of increased rainfall from an expected hurricane. The hurricane didn't provide the rain, and a good part of the state faced a water shortage for a couple of years. We were NOT oblivious.

Our friends in Fort Lauderdale are mostly staying put except for a few who were spending the summer up north and are delaying their return. It's been a dozen years since the last hurricane landfall there, and Wilma was a category 2, not 4, but the natives know what a hurricane is, and those who are staying think they know how to handle things. I hope and pray that they're right.

PS. I think Politico is based in Washington, DC, which Nature intended to be a swamp -- a real swamp, not a metaphorical one. What business do all the heavy hitters of politics have living in such a place? Talk about being blissfully oblivious.

rehajm said...

Most South Floridians don’t think much about climate change, either, even though it’s creating more intense storms...

It is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity.

Owen said...

Just want to complain about the misleading tone of that sentence, "It is premature to conclude that human activities...have already had a detectable impact...". This can be recast as "The causality we claim is there, but it is still hidden. Like the heat that was hiding at the bottom of the ocean where we couldn't find it (but where we were morally certain it must be), so too here: the impact of human activities will become detectable in due course."

In other words: trust us. We can't or won't offer a falsifiable prediction, but we can wave our hands and shout, so it's science.

Deb said...

A friend in Fort Myers drove up to Atlanta yesterday. She said it took 16 hours. I have a cousin in Tampa and I'm not sure what he and his wife are going to do. Obviously if they are there now, they are there to stay.

Michael The Magnificent said...

My cousin and her husband rent a home in Venice FL. When I stayed there, I walked their dog to the beach and back, crossing the Manasota Beach Rd bridge over the Intracoastal Waterway. You can see the waterway from their back yard, and that waterway connects to the ocean at least at two spots.

They own a business in Venice, which is higher than the house in regards to sea level, but it's also closer to the intracoastal. Last I talked to her, they and a bunch of their employees are hunkering down at the shop.

Godspeed Melanie and Jason.

Kassaar said...

Thanks for the Bataille reference. I’ve never read anything like it.

http://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/georges-bataille-the-solar-anus

MadisonMan said...

Florida. Irma's been riding straight down the road with her right turn blinker on for the last 200 miles. I think she's about to make that turn.

LOL. That's excellent. But, Irma also drifted left into the Cuba lane before making the right turn.

Fabi said...

"Irma's been riding straight down the road with her right turn blinker on for the last 200 miles."

Brilliant.

The Godfather said...

Driving down the road with the turn signal on. Typical Florida driver. Irma will feel right at home.