April 19, 2016
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131 comments:
They are already running out of ballots, having numerous people getting turned back at the polls or sent to other stations, and there are widespread complaints.
Go figure.
This will be a cruz arse-whupping of epic porportions.
Q: What will happen?
A: Straight-up voting for
None of that passive aggressive and convoluted "vote for the guy who can stop another guy even though I don't want the guy I voted for" bullshit.
What will happen: Something that can be spun in Hillary's favor by the Mainstream Media. Regardless of what it is.
Drudge has Trump at 61%. Big.
Voted for Trump up here in Orange county. City dwellers think where I live is 'upstate', but it is within commuting distance of NYC. All the registered Republicans I know are voting for the Donald.
Althouse said ...
What will happen?
The NY voters will not disgrace themselves with 'strategic' voting, like some other states.
Trump wins in his home state that has a tiny number of Republicans. BFD.
Q: What will happen?
A: Right wing Wisconsin talk radio will start tomorrow with righteous indignation about "New York Values."
The Notorious B.I.G. will have his day but it's still not clear if he'll ultimately beat out Tupac.
Strangely, the New York voters want their votes to be counted in making America great again.
And not a single write in vote was discovered to have been made for Rinse Prieus, although write in votes were attempted to be made by Party insiders, not one of whom had brought their photo ID because they thought Election Rules rules only applied to commoners.
Cruz will fail to get 20% and therefore will get no delegates. Whether Kasich gets any depends on whether he manages to beat Trump in any particular congressional district. Probably not. So Trump will get nearly all of the 95 delegates and he can stop whining about Colorado. Kasich will still be in fourth place behind Rubio. (Yes, I'm aware that Rubio has dropped out. However he has 27 more delegates committed to him than Kasich has, and Kasich will not get 27 delegates from New York.
Nothing I've read clarifies how Democrat delegates are allocated, except that some are awarded proportionally based on statewide results and the rest are awarded based on how the candidates do in congressional districts. If Drudge is right about the exit polls (and if the exit polls are accurate -- a bit "if") then Bernie will get a bushel of delegates but fall further behind Hillary.
Can anyone else spot the Ted Cruz doppelgänger in this vintage commercial?
Big Mike said...
"Cruz will fail to get 20% and therefore will get no delegates. Whether Kasich gets any depends on whether he manages to beat Trump in any particular congressional district. Probably not. So Trump will get nearly all of the 95 delegates and he can stop whining about Colorado."
He is not whining about Colorado. He is pointing out how they awarded delegates was crooked. The people running whatever you want to call that farce tweeted #nevertrump.
Anyone want to post some polls on how Colorado republicans would have voted if they had a chance? I couldn't find anything but given Colorado is a purple state I have a pretty good guess Trump wins by a lot. It makes Cruz look crooked and his poll numbers are tanking.
Trump just has to say he wins states that have votes. Because he wins states that have votes and he has more popular support than Cruz.
Kasich may show well enough in a few areas to earn a handful of delegates. Trump probably gets 90 of the 95.
9% in.
65/21/13
3rd place Ted. I started this race supporting you Ted. People don't like sleazy lawyer crap Ted. Please make plans to be VP Ted and start acting like a decent human being who cares about what the voters want Ted.
Clinton is winning 60/40.
I am sad sanders can't pull it out but I think he would be a more formidable candidate than hillary so I don't mind him losing.
Welcome to the Northeast Cruz-you will be crushed in all our states. Cruz a distant third tonight-suck it you religious freak. We aren't voting for Jesus out here.
New York, and the rest of the East Coast aint fucking a bunch of Wisconsin rednecks, and we have tons more peeps.
BTW Trump has 90,000 votes in NY and Clinton has 400,000.
Titus said...
"Welcome to the Northeast Cruz-you will be crushed in all our states. Cruz a distant third tonight-suck it you religious freak. We aren't voting for Jesus out here."
Some of them do. Don't get all crazy now. And don't be too angry at us Jesus freaks because some of us are the only reason Muslims don't bury you to your neck and throw rocks at your head til you die.
Is that a picture of you btw? Not a fan of curls but good work if it is you.
>BTW Trump has 90,000 votes in NY and Clinton has 400,000<
so ny values mean nothing in a national election?
Democrats total votes in NY 800k, republican's less than 200k.
thanks Achilles!
Rafael Eduardo Cruz is discovering that Jesus loves NYC and the courage and tolerance of of the New Yorkers ...and there is also that reminder in Rev. 21:8 about all liars being consigned to the fiery lake of burning sulfur at the second death
>Rev. 21:8 about all liars being consigned to the fiery lake of burning sulfur at the second death <
noted christian hugo chavez smelled sulfur at the un:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Ch%C3%A1vez_speech_at_the_United_Nations
in New York with 39% precincts reporting:
Democratic votes: 773,638
GOP votes: 180,787
So a state the Republicans can not possibly win is going to be the turning point in deciding the Republican nomination?
chickelit: Can anyone else spot the Ted Cruz doppelgänger in this vintage commercial?
That's not the "git a rope" version I remember.
The Republicans are not going to win New York unless Reagan comes back.
It is certainly an interesting year. ISIS is planning bombings in Majorca so the JV team is getting closer. They'll be here by summer.
"We aren't voting for Jesus out here."
Jesus loves you anyway, Titus. For now.
I'm seeing 413,000 Republican primary votes with 46% reporting. Some precincts must be more equal than others.
It seems to me in a primary the number of delegates per state should be weighted to the actual number of voters for that party in the state.
Are they?
David Begley said...
"Trump wins in his home state that has a tiny number of Republicans. BFD."
Trump has more votes than Cruz everywhere there has been a vote.
Trump has more delegates. He will finish with many more delegates than Cruz.
Trump has more popular support in every national poll. 70% of republicans think the person with the most delegates should be the nominee.
It is time for Cruz to start angling for the VP position and unifying the party for the good of the country.
Trump will never win in New York in the general.
Even in just the short time I was at the polling place, 2 people asked for and received provisional ballots. It was explained that election officials would be checking to make sure the affiant was registered in the party they voted for, but if they were counting the votes, I don't know how ineligible votes would be backed out. NY doesn't ask for ID, they just ask for a signature (the election staff has a copy of each voter's signature, and voters who have asked for absentee ballots have their signature field blocked out with that notice).
Interestingly, Carson was still on the ballot, although all the other dropped out candidates had been removed. Trump was in column 1, Kasich 3, Carson 5, Cruz 6.
They purged the voter rolls in Brooklyn
and Brooklyn "lost" 100,000 registered voters. These were registered voters who moved from the place they were registered at and it seems that they moved right out of Brooklyn. Or else they were registered at four or five places due to unpurged voting lists.
If that happened in every borough NYC would have 500,000 fewer voters. If that happened in every major city it would be enough people to affect the election.
The "comment" about Jordan is a direct unacknowledged quote from 2008 book Jordan: A Hashemite Legacy. It is intended I suppose to generate clicks for those shoes it mentions.
We've learned one thing this year. There are still huge regional differences in this country.
New Yorkers are stupid, corrupt and belligerent and I have little doubt that the scale of election corruption on the Democratic side would have rivaled the 1960 general in Chicago.
Tammany Hall lives on.
So Clinton won 13 out of 62 counties in New York state but apparently Debbie Wasserman Shultz thinks her appeal is broad enough to take her to the finish line in the general election.
Only Democrats could come up with that kind of idiocy. Nice winning coalition you've got there, DNC.
Rhythm and Balls: "So Clinton won 13 out of 62 counties in New York state but apparently Debbie Wasserman Shultz thinks her appeal is broad enough to take her to the finish line in the general election. Only Democrats could come up with that kind of idiocy. Nice winning coalition you've got there, DNC."
I'm insulted that you believe the republicans are not fully capable of just such shenanigans.
Harrumph!
Interesting break down of results. Trump even won the evangelical vote in NY by a landslide.
I suspect the only founding father who would be happy with this result is New York's own, Alexander Hamilton.
The only one who was shot to death in a duel.
What a legacy.
Ted Cruz was right about New York.
Amanda: "Trump will never win in New York in the general."
Eliminationist rhetoric!
Lol. In NY's "Clinton" County, HRC herself lost to Sanders 26.5% to 73.5%.
Apparently they know the shame behind the name.
R&B's: "The only one who was shot to death in a duel."
At least it wasn't by an assault musket.
Or assault muscatel. On second thought, most muscatels are an assault..on the senses.
You're starting to sound like a Hillary supporter, Drago!
Rhythm and Balls: "You're starting to sound like a Hillary supporter, Drago!"
It was the muscatel that gave it away.
Dammit.
Seriously.
How do you intend to occupy your spare time during a Hillary presidency?
What will you attack her with?
I see a strong job market for former Hallmark Cards employees as speechwriters in a Hillary Clinton administration.
Rhythm and Balls: "Seriously. How do you intend to occupy your spare time during a Hillary presidency? What will you attack her with?"
Well, foreign monasteries are right out: no muscatel. So there you go.
As far as a weapon with which to attack Hillary, I was thinking of either a blow-up close-up photo of Bill wielded with great nimbleness or perhaps some canned salmon.
I must admit I have not given it any deep thought......(and yes, that is the best straight line you will be getting from me all night mister so don't ask for another!)
Rhythm and Balls: "I see a strong job market for former Hallmark Cards employees as speechwriters in a Hillary Clinton administration."
Ha!
Clinton won Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Downstate NYC counties. Sanders won every other county. She's got the support of the political machinery, anyhow.
Trump won every county.
The Hillary Clinton Administration.
Funded by Wall Street. Scripted by Hallmark.
A powerfully dramatic tearjerker! Come cry with Hillary as she sells your future to her celebritard and hedge fund friends!
Lena Dunham is a strong Hillary supporter. Need I say any fucking thing more?
A girl who was raised by "artistes" and impresarios and kept giant paintings of vaginas on the walls.
Welcome to the new abnormal.
R&B's: "Lena Dunham is a strong Hillary supporter. Need I say any fucking thing more? A girl who was raised by "artistes" and impresarios and kept giant paintings of vaginas on the walls.
Welcome to the new abnormal."
Egads man. Step away from the computer before Titus reads that! That kind of outburst is likely to get you a face full of smooth and buttery chardonnay!
After eight long years, it seems that this winner will finally be happy.
His manhood is returning to him as we speak.
Many state primaries are still to come. I can't wait to hear about Hillary's lifelong love of the Pittsburg Pirates/Philadelphia Phillies while dodging sniper fire on her way to visit her lifelong favorite team in Baltimore!
Rhythm and Balls: "After eight long years, it seems that this winner will finally be happy."
Wow.
Of course, you find these types on all sides. But it's never easy when you do find them.
Uh, that sniper story never happened. It was confirmed as false by Sinbad.
It's really important to vote for someone who has a worse memory of what she's faced in alleged hot zones than Sinbad.
@Sydney,
Thanks for the links!
The Mrs asked me at dinner how I thought the breakout would go, & I missed the call on Clinton vs Sanders by two points in Bernie's favor. Still, within 2 points --- I'm humble but proud...
And that's the sort of cringe that will be in full swing once her time comes!
American culture will become as substantive as a Twinkie or other Hostess treat, all over again.
Get ready for Bill's big red syphilitic face popping outrage and wagging his arthritic finger at the country every time she's asked a fucking question.
What a disgrace.
R&B's: "American culture will become as substantive as a Twinkie or other Hostess treat, all over again."
It's worse than that.
There will be no gooey center. It's just outside-twinkie all the way down.
BTW, I'm not sure you are even allowed to say "American culture" any more. I'm 98.75% sure it's a micro-agression and cultural appropriation sort of thing.
I'm not sure really. I'm not really good at that "stuff".
Oh Dear Lord.
Look at what's possible with ProTools.
What fucking decade are we living in?
If you think you are hurting now R&B, just wait until they tee Chelsea up for you!
And us, of course.
"The Republicans are not going to win New York unless Reagan comes back."
Except Dutch couldn't come close to winning the Rep nomination, much like Kasich.
Plus if Reagan came back he'd be 105 years old.
R&B: "Look at what's possible with ProTools."
Damn you R&B. Damn you to hell!
Election law in New York requires the cancellation of registration whenever a person moves out of the city or county in which they registered. The enforcement provision is that a mailing is sent to every registered voter's address each summer, and if returned undeliverable without forwarding address, the registration is inactivated and removed from the published rolls. If such voter does not attempt to vote or contact the elections board within the next 2 federal elections held once this occurs, the registration is outright cancelled, no further notice required.
Given the relative lack of voter participation in New York in general elections, the movement of the people in NYC, and the reliability of the Post Office, it's hardly surprising they would have purged thousands upon thousands of voters from the rolls. The Boards of Elections, particularly in New York City, also have incentive to be diligent about voter roll maintenance/purging because election districts are limited to 1000/1200 active registrants maximum before a district must be split/realigned.
Hey everybody! Shiloh the DINO is here to make his appearance! Let's give him a warm welcome.
I'll bet he can't name one thing that the HRC administration will accomplish.
Maybe she can topple another Mid-East country's leader and start another round of refugees pouring into Europe. That would be awesome!
Let's hear it for our girl. She sure is a tough one!
shiloh: "Except Dutch couldn't come close to winning the Rep nomination, much like Kasich."
Uh, if Reagan "came back" you can bet your rear end you would vote for him. More importantly, what if Reagan brought Tip back with him?
But not Jim Wright. No, not him. They would probably say Jim wanted to come but we couldnt stand the son of a bitch when he was alive so we told him to stick it!
and the reliability of the Post Office,
Do you have some evidence that the Post Office is unreliable? Or do you just pull this shit out of your hat whenever you feel like you need some "point of fact" to back up an argument?
Reagan could win the nomination easily. You know who couldn't? Bill Clinton. Way too right wing.
"Uh, if Reagan "came back" you can bet your rear end you would vote for him."
Didn't vote for him in '80 or '84 so why would I vote for the old fart now.
And Tip would be replaced by a hard line lib speaker who wouldn't cooperate w/the Gipper, much like Boehner/McConnell didn't/haven't cooperated/compromised with Obama.
IOW nothing is gonna get done whoever gets elected as the voters seem to like divided govt. where nothing of significance happens.
>
Except the SC will be the big prize this election cycle.
@R&B,
Dammit all, R&B! You need to stop blocking yer feelings about Hillary! You need to look deep down inside & tell us how you really feel about her.
C'mon, big guy, we all know you can do it!
(I must admit, I'm amazed at the depth of your dislike for her. I mean, most of the rightward leaning folks on this board, sure, they all loath her. Me, with my conspiracy theories about her & that damn email server, sure. But, you, I'm a little taken aback by..).
Notice how I can totally avoid Ritmo, but he still has to throw an inane comment my way as he appears to be totally obsessed w/me.
Sad!
For a summary and perhaps explanation of my feelings on Killary, just read anything Camille Paglia has ever written on the bitch. This latest rant of hers is more broad-ranging, but is just as relevant and probably touches on her, also.
Off topic, but @timinvermont - are you joking? I switched to sending important documents FedEx because I can't trust my local post office. Spent extra for special handling and they would come back to me as undeliverable and looking like they had been drop-kicked to hell and back. Once paid for a certified letter with delivery confirmation and the postal clerk threw it in the back for delivery after I paid then said to me- "That won't get there. It wasn't addressed correctly." And he was right- it never got there. But he should have told me that before I paid and before he tossed it off. And the mail I send to my son in Jersey City has a 50/50 chance of being delivered or sent back to me as "Address Unknown" You might think maybe I don't know how to address my mail, but I do. They all got where they needed to go with the same address by FedEx.
I know someone who had trouble getting her forwarded mail delivered to her. Bills were going missing, etc. When she contacted the post office, the clerk who took her call told her, "Lady, it's not that important. It's only mail."
I could give you a lot more examples, but it's getting late and I've run on too long already.
Well Shiloh, what I'm obsessed with is figuring out why people like you and every other one of Boss Tweed's little minions feel so driven to turn the party of someone as noble as FDR into a party for big, fat horny hicks like Bill and transparently phony lying lightweights like Hillary who want to sell out the country's wealth and bomb the Middle East until it empties itself of every Muslim refugee willing to overrun Europe.
Is that a good enough reason?
Now answer the question. Why the hell would you support such people?
I guess that's a different post office than I am used to. Mine is great.
I don't think Trump/Cruz would fly. Trump/Sanders might win in a walk.
CNN and Fox show Kasich won Manhattan. What's his appeal there?
Theranter said...
CNN and Fox show Kasich won Manhattan. What's his appeal there?
Immigrants. From the Midwest. Lots of them in Manhattan.
According to the Politico feed at this time, with results from 98.5% of the NY Republican precincts in, Trump has 60.5% of the vote, with 518,816 votes, and 89 delegates out of the 95 awarded. Kasich has 3 delegates, with 3 still up for grabs. It will be a resounding win for Kasich if he can swoop up the remaining 3.
Well under a million Republican primary voters in NY State.
In contrast, in Wisconsin, Cruz won 48.2% of the million-plus Republican primary vote, with 531,129 votes. For this, Cruz was awarded only 36 out of the 42 available delegates.
For his efforts, Cruz earned even less than half the number of delegates in a competitive state (for Republicans to win in November) than Trump earned in a state that Republicans have no hope of winning.
Trump will, of course, continue to whine about the system being rigged against him.
"Trump has more votes than Cruz everywhere there has been a vote."
Except, you know, Texas. Where Cruz got 1,239,370 votes all by himself, more than the sum total of all votes cast for Republicans in New York.
Clearly Trump winning his home state is a HUUUUUGE deal, whereas I'm sure Cruz's landslide among a vastly larger number of voters in Texas doesn't count because it's *his* home state.
Oh, and there's Idaho, which was a primary, where Cruz got 43.8% of the vote to Trump's 26.7%.
Oh, and Oklahoma, which was a primary, where Cruz got 34.4% of the vote to Trump's 28.3%.
So, that's a little less than "everywhere".
Tell us more about "Lyin' Ted", Lying Achilles.
Oh, and yes, of course, Wisconsin, which was a primary, and where Cruz got 48.2% of the vote to Trump's 35.1%.
If Trump is doing so great, why do you have to lie so blatantly on his behalf, Achilles?
A whopping 1/3 of registered Republicans and Democrats in NY showed up for the most hotly contested primary in a lifetime.
Trump was held to under 50% in my CD, the 24th. I voted for Cruz. Trump didn't win every county. Trump lost NY County, which is Manhattan, his home. Where people know him best. That should tell Trumpsters something, but it won't. He was also held to under 50% in 2 districts in Manhattan, and the 20th which includes Albany. And Trump gets over 95% of the delegates with 60-61% of the votes. Or as Trump supporters call- fair delegate allocation. It would have been more fair if he got all of them, like he did in winner take all states with UNDER 50% of the vote.
I didn't go over the county numbers for Sanders, but I did check congressional district stats, and they followed national stats. 4 of the 5 districts he took were 89.7%+ white only according to census data, the 20th CD encompassing Albany being the exception with an 80% white only population. I'll bet this would be even more noticeable in a county by county breakdown.
I'm waiting for Trump to announce that in the interest of fairness, he only wants to accept 60% of the NY delegates as he only got 60% of the NY primary votes.
Oh, I forgot, the Trump World rules only apply to others.
Recall the 1960 World Series between the NY Yankees and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Yankees heavily favored, having Mantle, Maris, Whitey Ford, Berra in their lineup.
The Yankees won 3 games by scores of 10-0, 12-0 and 16-3. And lost the series.
To which a Pirate chortled after game 7: "They broke all the records and we won the game (aka the series)".
89.7%+ white only
WTF does that mean?
89.7% or more. Standard arithmetic notation.
And if you're asking about the "white only", that's from the census. Reporting as only one race, not multi-racial. Democrats and liberals insist we all have to be labeled, so they know where to sort us.
"I don't think Trump/Cruz would fly. Trump/Sanders might win in a walk."
Trump/Sanders will of course never happen. Trump/Cruz would require Cruz to eat more crow than any politician since Hubert Humphrey, or more so, as LBJ humiliated the hell out of Hubert but far as I know never publicly disparaged his wife's appearance.
Trump is more likely to cut a deal with Rubio, and Rubio has more incentive to take it than Cruz does. If Cruz falls short this year, he's set up well for 2020 with the argument that "insufficiently conservative" Trump was part of a long line of disasters for the GOP, which needs to stick with a "real conservative" (plus, the runner up often gets nominated in the next GOP contest). Cruz also still has his Senate perch. Rubio, though, is out of politics now unless he gets pulled onto a ticket.
We could be surprised, of course--Cruz could decide a VP nod is worth swallowing the insults as well as latching onto a losing ticket--but that's how I see it from this point.
"The Republicans are not going to win New York unless Reagan comes back."
The New York (and Massachusetts) that Reagan won twice is very different from what we have now. Back then it was a state that could elect Al D'Amato, and downstate conservative Republican officeholders. It's far more solid Dem now.
The Red/Blue states are likely to stick to their usual pattern this year.
shiloh: "Didn't vote for him in '80 or '84 so why would I vote for the old fart now."
I can see you missed the tongue in cheek angle. If Reagan "came back", he would not be an "old fart". See if you get the joke now.
And lighten up a bit.
Blogger Harold said...
And if you're asking about the "white only", that's from the census
They should learn to write then. As Rush used to say, "words have meaning."
Note that Trump won in the Bronx. So much for the Hispanic panic.
Manhattan aside from NYU students from cow country is where the GOP power brokers live. Check how many votes Kasich got outside the Silk Stocking district (UES).
More analysis on the Democratic race please. More people here should be able to be objective about that.
Get it through your heads: Trump will won NY in November.
Rafael Eduardo Cruz is discovering that Jesus loves NYC and the courage and tolerance of of the New Yorkers
The same people who spawned Al Sharpton?
Yeah, quite tolerant.
Trump is getting obliterated by Hillary. Yeah, he'll do GREAT in the general.
The Republicans are not going to win New York unless Reagan comes back.
Don't care if we do. Next time NYC is bombed, I will hardly feel sadness like I did on 9/11.
Trump has more votes than Cruz everywhere there has been a vote.
He got bitch slapped in Texas.
I mention that because the GOP wins TX. They don't win the star-fucking, navel-gazing shithole that is NY.
Trump has more delegates. He will finish with many more delegates than Cruz.
But he won't win a majority. And his laziness and lack of knowledge will end up ending his run.
They purged the voter rolls in Brooklyn
and Brooklyn "lost" 100,000 registered voters.
They should purge every major city's voter rolls every 10 years. No ifs, ands, or buts. If they won't, your city loses its vote since it is not a legitimate vote any longer.
I'm waiting for Trump to announce that in the interest of fairness, he only wants to accept 60% of the NY delegates as he only got 60% of the NY primary votes.
He wouldn't want to make his hetero lifemate Hannity cry, would he?
We could be surprised, of course--Cruz could decide a VP nod is worth swallowing the insults as well as latching onto a losing ticket--but that's how I see it from this point.
I'd be shocked if either of them accept. Look at the joke Christie has become since signing on with Trump. Carson was never serious but he's coming across as batshit crazy now.
Get it through your heads: Trump will won NY in November.
He got how many fewer votes than Hillary?
NY voters won't vote for a loser and Trump will be one in November.
Oh well, America. It was a fun ride.
Trump will never win New York in the general.
Trump won't hit 40% in NY in a general.
He also could likely lose TX, which takes some doing.
Democratic Primary
Clinton has won New York.
CANDIDATES VOTE PCT. DELEGATES
Hillary Clinton
1,037,344 57.9% 139
Bernie Sanders 752,739 42.1 106
1,790,083 votes, 98% reporting (14,838 of 15,067 precincts)
NYT
8:08:56 AM ET
Republican Primary
Trump has won New York.
CANDIDATES VOTE PCT. DELEGATES
Donald J. Trump
518,601 60.5% 89
John Kasich 214,755 25.1 3
Ted Cruz 123,894 14.5 —
Other 0 0.0 —
857,250 votes, 98% reporting (14,838 of 15,067 precincts)
Hillary Clinton
1,037,344 57.9% 139
Bernie Sanders 752,739 42.1 106
1,790,083 votes, 98% reporting (14,838 of 15,067 precincts)
Donald J. Trump
518,601 60.5% 89
Trump lost, by over 200,000, to Bernie Sanders. In Trump's home state. And Sanders is a terrible candidate who has problems with the black vote Dems rely on to win.
Yeah, Don's in GREAT shape there...
I would be more sympathetic to Trump if I thought he had a bat's chance in hell.
Amanda said...
Trump will never win New York in the general.
The NY primaries were very closed, so they are not a reliable indicator of what might happen. Also, neighboring states, Penn and NJ probably may be in play for Trump, based on this result. Hillary supporters should not assume that Trump is an easy win, if he gets the nomination. Hillary is a good match up for Trump.
Damikesc et al, primary rules are different. NY and NYC votes can swing wildly. Explain to Giuliani, Bloomberg, Pataki that Republicans can't win in NY.
Trump is none of them. He's a circus clown. The media want him because he's entertaining and will get crushed by Hillary (he has all of her flaws, so the whole corruption thing is gone with him).
He will get slaughtered in NY and CA. Nobody seriously believes otherwise.
As for you nevertrumpers, what will you do when (okay, if) your hero-Cruz, Kasich, Ryan, Romney, whoever your hero now is-tells you to go out and vote Trump till your asshole bleeds?
I won't vote. Not that hard.
The NY primaries were very closed, so they are not a reliable indicator of what might happen. Also, neighboring states, Penn and NJ probably may be in play for Trump, based on this result. Hillary supporters should not assume that Trump is an easy win, if he gets the nomination. Hillary is a good match up for Trump.
Sure, Hillary's biggest issues are competence, trust, and honesty.
Let's get a guy who's declared bankruptcy repeatedly, abused eminent domain, and is facing a fraud case as the opponent.
That's BRILLIANT!
Achilles: "It is time for Cruz to start angling for the VP position and unifying the party for the good of the country."
I've quit making predictions but I find this really unlikely. First, Cruz is hated almost as much as Trump is, so probably not the best choice. Plus, much of Cruz's support is from people who are voting for him as the last (very slim) chance to stop Trump from getting the GOP nomination and making the GOP a permanent minority party, never to win the presidency again.
I expect Trump, if/when he gets the nomination, to pick someone more general-election friendly.
Nichevo: "As for you nevertrumpers, what will you do when (okay, if) your hero-Cruz, Kasich, Ryan, Romney, whoever your hero now is-tells you to go out and vote Trump till your asshole bleeds?"
Nice.
Well, I can't speak for anyone else, but one reason I'm #neverTrump is because I don't do cults of personality, and therefor I don't have any political "heroes" who I follow blindly.
If Trump somehow wins the election (I don't think he will but I've quit making predictions) I'll be a good citizen, do my best to pray for his success and the good of the country, etc, but there's no way I'm voting for him (or Hillary, or Bernie). In other words, I won't riot if he wins, won't publish the names and info of the delegates who helped him get the nomination, won't threaten their families, won't call their wives ugly, etc. I'm not yet in the ends justify the means camp and I have to sleep at night, so I'll take the privilege of voting very seriously and won't vote for the evil of two lessers, or visa-versa.
Fun, interesting times we're living in.
"Note that Trump won in the Bronx. So much for the Hispanic panic."
Yes, that very large proportion of Bronx Hispanics that are registered Republican...if Trump wins all twelve of them, he's sure to carry New York.
"He wouldn't want to make his hetero lifemate Hannity cry, would he?"
Hannity's photo is in the dictionary under "hack." For all of his "conservative" bona fides, he is all in for Trump.
"I'd be shocked if either of them accept. Look at the joke Christie has become since signing on with Trump. Carson was never serious but he's coming across as batshit crazy now."
Trump's endorsers are a murderer's row of pathetic has-beens. Not exactly good company.
"Well, I can't speak for anyone else, but one reason I'm #neverTrump is because I don't do cults of personality, and therefor I don't have any political "heroes" who I follow blindly."
To back Trump I'd have to forget far too much about him. This is looking a lot like American's answer to the Hollande v. LePen choice this November. Not a good place to be in if you're an American-style conservative.
"And lighten up a bit."
Sorry I missed your facetiousness. Althouse cons, as a rule, are usually too angry/annoyed to be sarcastic. But then there's the subject of Obama/Hillary, where the disingenuous sarcasm flows daily.
Especially enjoy when hyperbolic MK references Aaron Burr when talking about Hillary. ok, MK is soooo old he probably knew Burr personally. I digress.
Also, I'm just a casual observer at Althouse nowadays and don't have time to pick up on everyone's nuances.
>
My final word on Reagan is he was an anomaly ie after the disatrous (4) years of Carter when the Dem party was totally split/discombobulated Reagan arouse from the ashes. Then the Dems ran Carter lite, Mondale, in '84.
Presidential landslides only occur when the opposing party is totally discombobulated ie '32/'36/'64/'72/'84 ...
2016 ??? stay tuned!
" Given the relative lack of voter participation in New York in general elections, the movement of the people in NYC, and the reliability of the Post Office, it's hardly surprising they would have purged thousands upon thousands of voters from the rolls."
That was interesting on how the voter purging law works in NYC but it doesn't explain why the purge only hit Brooklyn, Bernie Sanders home borough. In fact it suggests criminal intervention in the election process since the purge though legal in itself affected only one place. So purging isn't going on in general but did happen only where the Democrat "e's" want to affect the election, Sanders hometown.
"Sanders hometown"
"Sanders, 73, the independent senator turned Democratic presidential candidate, has called Vermont home for almost all of his entire adult life. It started when he was around 13 years old, a fascination with the Green Mountain State born in glossy real estate guides."
Just Don't Call It The 'People's Republic Of Burlington'
Again, Sanders basically couldn't get a real job in Brooklyn, so he moved to more "fertile" ground in VT where he got elected mayor of Burlington thus becoming a career politician.
To think that Sanders hometown of Brooklyn carried any real political significance is nonsense.
Explain to Giuliani, Bloomberg, Pataki that Republicans can't win in NY.
Republicans can't win in New York City. They can win citywide when they are perceived as independents.
Pataki was statewide. OK, we're talking statewide! But I think Republicans can't win qua Republicans. Although Reagan did in 1980 and 1984. But presidents get considered as individuals. Also, very many states were carried by Reagan.
Dukakis carried New York in 1988, by the way.
"navel-gazing shithole that is NY."
That's really unfair to Ithaca.
Big Mike said...4/19/16, 8:16 PM
Cruz will fail to get 20% and therefore will get no delegates.
That seems to be the case. Trump got close to or more than 60% statewide and so gets all 14 delegates, plus the first allot votes of the 3 automatc delegates per state, and gets all 3 in many Congressional districts (27x3 = 81). Trump has at least 89 total, and Kasich 3, with 3 to be decided.
In a Congressional district, if a candidates gets 50% or more he gets all three - or if he gets 20% or more and nobody else does. If the first candidate gets below 50% and the second candidate gets above 20% they split 2-1. If 3 candidates get between 20% and 50% - sorry only the first two get any delegates.
If Cruz had publicized Kasich, Trump might have fallen below 50% in more CDs.
Nothing I've read clarifies how Democrat delegates are allocated, except that some are awarded proportionally based on statewide results and the rest are awarded based on how the candidates do in congressional districts.
They are all proportional, with a 15% threshhold, in whatever geographical territory delegates are assigned to.
In New York, there are 291 Democratic delegates, of which 44 are Super-delegates, with most of them unofficially, or reversibly, pledged to Hillary Clinton. Of the remaining 247, 84 are allocated statewide, and 163 distributed among the 27 congressional districts (for an average of just above 6 each) Each Congressional district gets 5 or 6 or 7 delegates, depending on Democratic success or numbers there, I suppose.
The actual district delegates are chosen this way: If, suppose Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split 6 delegates evenly, 3-3, the top 3 of 6 Hillary delegates and the top 3 of 6 Bernie delegates get to go to the convention. Or it might go 4-2 or 2-4. It is like a primary within a primary. each slate contains three males and 3 females, but they don’t have to elect three males and 3 females. It’s not the top 3 females and top 3 males. Each candidate gets the number of delegates they qualify for, and the specific delegates who get the most votes, are the ones who get to go to the convention. Obviously, you can’t split 3 delegates evenly between male and female.
If a voter who understands the system - a big if - and wants to influence who gets to be a delegate should pick the top 3 Hillary and the 3 top 3 Bernie delegates they prefer. Or "bullet vote" for one from each. Or some other strategy. If they pick all 6 from one candidate, it is pointless. Of course there was almost no way to find out in advance who were candidates for delegate, and then research them.
http://vote.nyc.ny.us/downloads/pdf/documents/boe/2016PresidentialPrimary/2016PresPrimContestListPDF_322016_910am.pdf had the list, but it also claimed taht Jeb Bish and MArco Rubio weer still on the ballot and they were not. Only Ben Carson of the n-longer-actively-running candidates was, and I don't know if any votes cast for him figured into the percentages.
In the The 1oth Congressional district (Jerrold Nadler, west side of Manhattan and narrow portions of Brooklyn down to Brighton Beach) theer was this web posting:
http://westviewnews.org/2016/04/the-april-19-presidential-primary-ballot-lots-of-choices/
If Drudge is right about the exit polls (and if the exit polls are accurate -- a bit "if") then Bernie will get a bushel of delegates but fall further behind Hillary.
It's now reported as 58% to 42% - almost a landslide. But there are vastly different results among sub-categories of voters.
Trump got WAY more delegates than his proportion of the vote.
Come on, Trumpsters. Be consistent and bitch about it. Discuss how unfair it is that he's disenfranchising those who don't support him.
shiloh said...4/20/16, 8:36 AM
Especially enjoy when hyperbolic MK references Aaron Burr when talking about Hillary. ok, MK is soooo old he probably knew Burr personally. I digress.
Well, if he didn't know Burr, he probably remembers when Richard Nxon was running for President. vs McGovern.
The problem here is it is hard to figure out how both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump could lose. They'd both almost surely lose in an ordinary election year. Ted Cruz, too.
"Sammy, don't you think that Trump is somewhat regarded as an independent? Don't we hear night and day how he is not an orthodox conservative? What don't you get?"
That's his pitch, but so far the polling has his support almost exclusively from those who lean GOP (even if they're technically not registered Republicans). To the extent he is winning "non-GOP" voters (depending on how you define it) they skew white and non-urban (mostly ex-urban) so he shouldn't expect to do well in NYC's in a general election. He won NY and Massachusetts in the primary, but that's a very different electorate from the general--it would be like assuming Cruz could win Maine or Wisconsin in the general election (or that Hillary is a shoe-in with South Carolina).
"Come on, Trumpsters. Be consistent and bitch about it. Discuss how unfair it is that he's disenfranchising those who don't support him."
Just as only Ted Cruz's "lies" bother them and not Trump's far more numerous and blatant lies, I expect only crickets on this one.
"Don't we hear night and day how he is not an orthodox conservative?"
That's a fair point, and it's true conservatives who don't like Trump point out that he is not "conservative". That is because under their definition of conservative, he is certainly not one--he doesn't favor limited government, the rule of law, or freer markets (essentially the libertarian part of "conservatism"). What Trump represents is a more nativist (focus on closing borders and trade, but maintaining a large and active government and entitlement net to protect those who are here) form of "conservativism". This is why leftists and rightists can oppose Trump at the same time--his ideology does not fit with either group evenly.
Conservatism is more than "Not agreeing with Democrats"
...which, sadly, Trump can't even make THAT claim.
I don't see how he's actually a conservative. And why would I support a candidacy when the guy I ACTUALLY agree with is in a position with no power while the one I do not is calling all of the shots and has no history of actually listening to "subordinates"?
New York Times's presidential race delegate calculators:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/30/upshot/trump-clinton-delegate-calculator.html
The Empire (state) Strikes Back.
http://www.nationalreview.com/four-faces
damikesc said...
"Conservatism is more than "Not agreeing with Democrats"
...which, sadly, Trump can't even make THAT claim.
I don't see how he's actually a conservative. And why would I support a candidacy when the guy I ACTUALLY agree with is in a position with no power while the one I do not is calling all of the shots and has no history of actually listening to "subordinates"?"
If you were honest you would note Trump wants deregulated health insurance elimination of state borders on insurance and HSA's. You would note that he has the best 2nd amendment platform of any legitimate politician before this year. His tax reform plan eliminates the irs. He has promised to eliminate the EPA and department of education. And of course he is the sole reason immigration is being discussed as we want it discussed.
But you are projecting dishonesty. When he is the nominee you will be up to speed.
Hillary supporters should not assume that Trump is an easy win, if he gets the nomination. Hillary is a good match up for Trump.
They're actually pretty similar, in terms of personality and basic psychology.
Again, Sanders basically couldn't get a real job in Brooklyn, so he moved to more "fertile" ground in VT where he got elected mayor of Burlington thus becoming a career politician.
Again. Why do you even go about pretending you're a Democrat with this kind of slanderous horseshit and right-wing talking point nonsense? It's basically something I could hear out of Rush Limbaugh's pie-hole. Landing a job in Brooklyn is now somehow the pinnacle of success? Or the pinnacle of admirable achievement despite economic mediocrity? I guess there must be a lot of Brooklyn-gentrified baristas who can now feel that treading economic water like the rest of the middle class and working class is some badge of courage - at least if they did it in a difficult and questionably valuable real estate market.
And where the fuck do you get off badmouthing anyone who wants to live wherever in America they feel most at home? You're from fucking Ohio, the armpit of America. What does living in that vast plain of cultural and geographic and economic mediocrity say about YOU? Jesus Christ, I never knew what Republicans were talking about when they complained about elitist and snobby Democrats. I guess I just found out.
You are a true Limousine Liberal, Shiloh. Pretending to care about and identify with the salt of the earth and those who toil, but really hiding your snide feelings toward them beneath a razor-thin veneer of Republican hatred. You are the most Rush Limbaugh-esque voice left of the RNC, as far as I can tell. Any other vanguards or backbones of the left and their causes that you care to badmouth, or is it just those who don't conform to your bogus and flimsy categories of economic wonderment?
Explain yourself, DINO!
Shiloh the Hillary supporter must obviously be an expert on career politicians.
Career lawyers. Career politicians. Shiloh's a fan of them in equal measure.
Just not career public servants. He hates those with a passion.
R&B:
"It's basically something I could hear out of Rush Limbaugh's pie-hole. Landing a job in Brooklyn is now somehow the pinnacle of success?"
Um, dude. The primary job Sanders was known for up to age 40 was as a carpenter, and he was extraordinarily bad at it. And that's according to his *friends*.
Here's the *entirety* of the Private Careers section of his wiki page:
"After graduating from college, Sanders returned to New York City, where he initially worked in a variety of jobs, including Head Start teacher, psychiatric aide, and carpenter.[30] In 1968, Sanders moved to Vermont because he had been "captivated by rural life." After his arrival there he worked as a carpenter, filmmaker, and writer[44] who created and sold "radical film strips" and other educational materials to schools.[45] He also wrote several articles for the alternative publication The Vermont Freeman.[46]"
And what was the source document [30]? A 2015 New Yorker article. And what was said in the original source?
"He did a stint on a kibbutz in Israel, worked as an aide at a psychiatric hospital, taught in a Head Start program, and had a carpentry business with a few other guys in New York. It was called Creative Carpentry, and Rader says that it was accurately named: “They advertised in the Village Voice, but didn’t know much about carpentry. They’d go to the hardware store to buy supplies, and ask the clerk how to do the repairs they’d been hired to do.”"
That's just funny right there. And this is from a total puff piece. Here's my other favorite part from the New Yorker article:
"She noted that sites like Reddit and Twitter were circulating videos of “Bernie explaining why he identifies as a socialist, and what it means to him, in a really positive light.” She added, “The word had a retro connection to Communism and was originally thrown at him as a damning label by his opponents. But for his supporters it isn’t a deterrent.”"
Of course it isn't. To them, that's not a bug, it's a feature.
Another interesting point is that a search of both his wiki page and that New Yorker article yields not one instance of the word "Sandinistas".
If you don't know why any accurate history *should* include a mention, here's why:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/28/when-bernie-sanders-thought-castro-and-the-sandinistas-could-teach-america-a-lesson.html
Um, dude. The primary job Sanders was known for up to age 40 was as a carpenter, and he was extraordinarily bad at it. And that's according to his *friends*.
Oh Dear Lord. I'm so distressed and depressed. Screw that Jesus guy, too, come to think of it.
I'm sure if the word "socialism" had existed then I know whom you would have charged of it.
If you want only billionaires and Wall Street suck-ups like Killary to lead the country, then make that claim. In the meantime, I have no problem with someone as uninterested in financial self-aggrandizement to represent me and against the forces that want to own them with it. They call it "public" servant and "public" service for a reason. And do try to keep scaring me with the supposed horror of having various odd jobs in life. Not all of us (or even most people) find that anywhere near as abominable as you do, either.
I mean, seriously. You have a political economy that screws over increasing numbers of people and your medicine is to presume that I should spew vitriol against anyone who isn't wealthy. Besides being morally perverse, good luck finding a winning political message in that one.
It's seriously like a GOPe-Hillary coalition of the narcissists, sociopaths and kleptocrats. Leave me out of it and the rest of this utterly horrifying vision of yours.
R&B wrote: Oh Dear Lord. I'm so distressed and depressed. Screw that Jesus guy, too, come to think of it.
Pitch perfect response.
Clinton got over a million votes and you morons are babbling because she didn't win the Finger Lakes or other counties where nobody lives. Tea baggers are such morons.
Again, Ritmo in no way disagreed w/the fact that Sanders was a failure at life until he became a career politician. His juvenile personal attacks are his way of changing the subject er distraction/deflection because he knows he can't argue the facts.
Sad!
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