Althouse: "The Club For Growth,which asked me for $1,000,000 in an extortion attempt, just put up a Wisconsin ad with incorrect math."

April 1, 2016

"The Club For Growth,which asked me for $1,000,000 in an extortion attempt, just put up a Wisconsin ad with incorrect math."

"What a dumb group!" — tweets Donald Trump.

And: "The Club For Growth said in their ad that 465 delegates (Cruz) plus 143 delegates (Kasich) is more than my 739 delegates. Try again!"

ADDED: Here's the ad:

What's more misleading — Trump's tweets or the ad?

48 comments:

Meade said...: Trump is lying. The ad didn't actually "say" that. Try again, Donald!; 4/1/16, 11:28 AM
HoodlumDoodlum said...: "Troubling" is a PC weasel word and someone of your intellect and candor should avoid it, Professor.; 4/1/16, 11:40 AM
Anonymous said...: The graphics implied it, even though they weren't saying that. So, it is a bit deceptive; and stupid, as it gives Trump a legitimate gripe.

Trump's claim of an "extortion attempt" raises a bit more skepticism from me.; 4/1/16, 11:40 AM
Michael K said...: The graphics showed the total of Cruz and Kasich being greater than Trump's.

Try again, Meade.; 4/1/16, 11:41 AM
J2 said...: The graph did not show the math.; 4/1/16, 11:49 AM
Anonymous said...: So Trump accuses the Koch Brothers' Club for Growth of trying to extort a million bucks from him? Oh my god ya can't make this stuff up. Don't get the Koch brothers mad at you.; 4/1/16, 11:50 AM
pm317 said...: Yeah, graph showed total of C + K to be more than T..; 4/1/16, 11:50 AM
Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...: It's a good ad and Trump's complaints about it make him look more and more like Captain Queeg.

I think Trump's opponents are finally figuring out effective ways to defeat him. The question is, will it be too little, too late?; 4/1/16, 11:51 AM
DKWalser said...: Notice that they removed the totals when they "added" Kasich's delegate's to Cruz'. There message is about future votes and the assignment of delegates based on those future votes. It's NOT about Kasich's current delegates being reassigned to Cruz. (IIRC, most states do not allow their delegates to be reassigned to another candidate until after the 1st ballot at the convention.) So, while the graphic may have been misleading because it was open to the wrong interpretation, it's NOT a math error. They're simply saying that if all the Kasich voters in the remaining primaries would vote for Cruz, Cruz would beat Trump. Like all predictions about the future, it may or may not be correct.; 4/1/16, 11:52 AM
Henry said...: Pay attention to the visual storytelling. The ad is addressing future primary voters (Wisconsinites) not past ones. The graph starts out showing the current totals. As the announcer says "A vote for Kasich actually helps Trump..." Kasich's total increases. Then the larger Kasich total is added to the Cruz total. The story is predictive, not static.

At the same time, there is a visual blunder here. The two bars are added as the announcer says "...by dividing the opposition." A phrase like "Don't divide the opposition" would have been more in sync.; 4/1/16, 11:59 AM
Henry said...: Cudos to DKW who types faster :); 4/1/16, 12:00 PM
CStanley said...: i agree with the future predictive interpretation, but it is still misleading. They probably should have shown the columns growing and then add the Cruz and Kasich votes at the end.; 4/1/16, 12:01 PM
Bob K said...: Since there are 10 tick marks each one represents 123.7 delegates. At the beginning they screwed Kasich with the graphic by under representing the height of his bar. They show it only 123 delegates high. If you stop the video at 15 sec and 17 sec you can see how much they manipulated Kasichs' bar.; 4/1/16, 12:03 PM
Drago said...: Amanda: "Don't get the Koch brothers mad at you."

That's for sure. The next thing you know they might fund another Cancer wing at a hospital or add to a University endowment, or throw money at the salvation army!

Nothing so cool of course as openly embracing leftist totalitarian murdering dictators which is simply another reason for the lefties to be upset with the Koch's.; 4/1/16, 12:04 PM
Drago said...: Bob K: "If you stop the video at 15 sec and 17 sec you can see how much they manipulated Kasichs' bar."

We're talking about delegate counts, right?; 4/1/16, 12:05 PM
Henry said...: They also showed Trump and Kasich in black and white. That's not fair to Trump's hair.; 4/1/16, 12:05 PM
Conservative ideals said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/1/16, 12:06 PM
Hagar said...: Can all of these people lose?; 4/1/16, 12:10 PM
Conservative ideals said...: The ad did not say what Trump said it did - I have listened to it twice. Donald is incredibly imprecise in his thinking and language, which is why it's so easy to regard him as a dumb trust fund baby incapable of substantial thought.

The graph looked like Cruz's plus Kasich's delegates were more than Trumps. The ad did not say that. Quite frankly, given how delegates are apportioned, it could very well be true that if the people who voted for Kasich had instead voted for Cruz, Cruz would have a larger total proportion of the delegates than Trump. As has been pointed out already - it's referring to Wisconsin and future delegates as well. If Kasich doesn't keep diverting voters away from Cruz, Cruz has a clear lead over Trump. So I can't say that the graph is wrong - at best it's correct, at worst it's unclear.; 4/1/16, 12:11 PM
mccullough said...: The Club for Amnesty and Jobs in China is a good target for Trump. Their ad had no point so Trump was free to make them look stupid; 4/1/16, 12:25 PM
mccullough said...: The brothers K are also trust fund babies. Dad's name is Fred as well. Fun to watch Trump take them on. The brothers k have 60,000 employees in the US and another 40,000 in the rest of the world. Like Trump, they file a lot of frivolous lawsuits.; 4/1/16, 12:30 PM
Birkel said...: Koch Brothers are such terrible boogeymen. It is almost as if the Left has won the cultural war. A shame, really.; 4/1/16, 12:43 PM
Phunctor said...: The universal franchise means 50% of voters are of less than median intelligence -- "misleading" political speech is to be expected from all actors.

Even concern that the poor dears are being misled can be misleading. The logical endpoint of this concern is a Roman-style system of patrons and clients. Go fractal and viola, feudalism, yay!; 4/1/16, 12:55 PM
Chuck said...: Anybody remember, just weeks ago, when the Trump campaign got caught using Moroccan video as depicting "our southern border"?

Behold; this is such a great link in the aftermath of Corey Lewandowski's arrest on a battery charge:

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/jan/04/donald-trump/donald-trumps-first-tv-ad-shows-migrants-southern-/

"No s--t," Corey.; 4/1/16, 1:16 PM
Ken B said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/1/16, 1:23 PM
Anonymous said...: The AD is misleading. Why not give Cruz delegates to Kasich then? And a portion of Kasich voters will vote Trump.

If you see "club for growth" or "chamber of commerce" then you are looking at the groups that engineered the McCain and Romney debacles.; 4/1/16, 1:25 PM
Ken B said...: Chuck beclowns himself again. The Trump campaign was not "caught" using Moroccan video. They did that deliberately and trumpeted the fact. The idea was "this is what can happen to us next".

Chuck knows that Spain has built a wall (high fence) to keep illegal immigrants out, right?; 4/1/16, 1:26 PM
Ken B said...: Whhops. I just watched it. They DO make Kasich's bar bigger when it moves. I still think it's misleading but DKWalser at least has a colorable claim.; 4/1/16, 1:30 PM
Anonymous said...: This is some type of common core math in the video right? I thought Cruz was against that?; 4/1/16, 1:31 PM
MPH said...: That new Cruz line includes Rubio's delegates.; 4/1/16, 1:54 PM
Qwinn said...: "The ad did not say that. Quite frankly, given how delegates are apportioned, it could very well be true that if the people who voted for Kasich had instead voted for Cruz, Cruz would have a larger total proportion of the delegates than Trump."

This. The way several states divvy up the delegates, simply by having the most number of votes, Cruz could've gotten a much greater share of the delegates than what you would get just by adding Cruz's and Kasich's actual numbers together. Trump has to know this - he benefited from it tremendously in several states so far. It would indeed take a great deal of math, taking into account the way the various states apportion delegates, to find out what the totals would be if all the Kasich votes were put into Cruz's column. Hell, you'd probably have to do it on a district-by-district level.

As I said, Trump had to know this. It may be that that graphic would actually be accurate. It may not. But by implying that the only "math" involved is just adding up their sum delegates together, Trump's ad is more deliberately deceptive IMO.; 4/1/16, 2:05 PM
Chuck said...: Ken; in Trump terminology -- bullshit. It's not just a good example of an ordinary campaign ad faux-pas. It's an even better example of Corey Lewadowski's thuggish mendacity.

I'm so grateful to Corey Lewandowski; by being such a thug himself, he has single-handed lay erased all of the supposed racial connotations with the word. Once again, we can use the term "thug" wherever it rightly applies without fear of being called racists.; 4/1/16, 2:40 PM
Chuck said...: Ken; lest anyone actually believe somebody like you, or Trump, or Corey, let's just be clear that the Trump campaign decided on the Morocco story after it was pointed out to them that the people in the ad weren't Mexicans on the U.S.border.

#Unbelievable!; 4/1/16, 2:46 PM
Birches said...: I feel dumber even entertaining this gripe.; 4/1/16, 2:51 PM
Lance said...: Assuming DKWalser has the right interpretation, Cruz (and the CFG) are wrong to want Kasich to quit. Every time a candidate quits, a percentage of their support goes to Trump. Analysts originally thought Trump's ceiling was 30%, but now it's looking more like 40% or higher. If Kasich drops out, expect the ceiling to go higher. And also note that Cruz probably has a ceiling as well.; 4/1/16, 2:52 PM
Qwinn said...: Lance,

"Every time a candidate quits, a percentage of their support goes to Trump."

Sure, and a percentage goes to Cruz as well. It's better for Trump if Kasich drops out only if he gets 50.1% of the Kasich votes. I don't see that happening. I don't think it's really happened yet following any of the other dropouts... as each contestant has dropped out, Trump's numbers haven't moved all that much - he was in the low 30's to begin with, and is in the high 30's now, while Cruz's have gone up tremendously. Trump's already at his ceiling. Cruz hasn't shown any sign of hitting it yet, as Wisconsin is about to demonstrate, again.; 4/1/16, 2:59 PM
Meade said...: "Try again, Meade."

Math is hard but okay I'll give it a try...

Trump delegates to date: 751
non-Trump delegates to date: 798

Lyin' Donald.; 4/1/16, 3:12 PM
Achilles said...: That would be honest if Rubio's face was up there. But it wasn't. They grew the Kasich bar when they moved it to add Rubio's delegates.

So far every Republican member of the gang of 8 except Rubio has endorsed Cruz. I can see why the amnesty shills at the CFG didn't want the team complete.

It was a dishonest and misleading add and done on purpose. Don't bring dishonor on yourself.; 4/1/16, 4:31 PM
Skipper said...: If you add them up using base-12 math, it works (I think).; 4/1/16, 4:53 PM
Martin said...: The ad is misleading because when they put Kasich's bar on top of Cruz's, magically it looks taller than Trump's, which ain't so. If the ad showed "Others" or listed them all, yeah, the math would work, but that presumes that Rubio and Carson delegates would all go to Cruz, which ain't necessarily so, either.

OTOH, who cares? It's not like that ad is going to affect anyone's vote.

If the idea is you should vote for Cruz to stop Trump, better to make a case than just play games with numbers and bars that you never explain. That business with the stacked bars is very obscure, it will shoot by most people without even making an impression.

Waste of money, in my opinion.; 4/1/16, 5:00 PM
gadfly said...: Fourth graders do not relate well to complex math - and for the Donald to think that votes received already have anything to do with final counts - what can I say!

Dear Donald: Moving Kasich's column above Cruz's column emphasizes the harm the Ohio Governor has on what should be a 2 man race because Kasich cannot win enough delegates even if he wins all remaining contests.

If Donald's IQ is really that low, God help us all if he wins, because he cannot conceive that some of us are not as dumb as he and his supporters are. Best excuse I can dream up for him is that perhaps Anonymous is screwing with his twitter feed today.; 4/1/16, 5:40 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Donald has a Low IQ or he's a liar... ? He should be rejected. Thanks to Drudge, Rush and Hannity - a Trump cult has been created.; 4/1/16, 6:37 PM
Birkel said...: You present a false dichotomy, AprilApple. He may have a high IQ, believe he is not lying and be delusional.; 4/1/16, 9:43 PM
Michael K said...: "I think Trump's opponents are finally figuring out effective ways to defeat him. The question is, will it be too little, too late?"

No, it will be in time to elect Hillary.

Congratulations, Chuck.; 4/1/16, 10:14 PM
Michael K said...: "Math is hard but okay I'll give it a try...

Trump delegates to date: 751
non-Trump delegates to date: 798"

But that's not what the graphic showed. Try again, Meade.; 4/1/16, 10:15 PM
traditionalguy said...: Trump has not yet begun to fight.; 4/1/16, 11:21 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: @ Birkel

You present a false dichotomy, AprilApple. He may have a high IQ, believe he is not lying and be delusional.

So - Trump is Hillary?; 4/2/16, 6:05 AM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Gallup: Trump’s favorable rating among women now at ... 23/70

I doubt the ever-shrinking angry dude party will deliver Trump to the White House. Perhaps the fever needs to break to save us from a Trump loss to Hillary? Nah - rage on!; 4/2/16, 6:10 AM