Althouse: "Can You Get Trump To 1,237?"

April 5, 2016

"Can You Get Trump To 1,237?"

A great graphic at FiveThirtyEight.

33 comments:

Brando said...: It's hard to use that graphic without knowing the current polling in each remaining state, as well as how the delegates are allotted and how each candidate would do per congressional district.; 4/5/16, 8:47 AM
Curious George said...: Me? No. No I can't.; 4/5/16, 8:49 AM
Ann Althouse said...: If you click to accept the experts' predictions, that's approximating what the polls are showing.

Trump falls 36 delegates short when you do that.

So the stop-Trumpers need to work on pushing that further back, getting Trump as far from 1237 as they can to bolster the argument that he shouldn't get it.; 4/5/16, 8:52 AM
Ann Althouse said...: I don't think Trump will do better than the standard expert prediction, so there will be a second vote. Now, the shaping of opinion becomes important. How do you get people to vote for Cruz (to deny Trump) without creating the impression that Cruz has the kind of support that should get him the nomination?; 4/5/16, 8:54 AM
Brando said...: "How do you get people to vote for Cruz (to deny Trump) without creating the impression that Cruz has the kind of support that should get him the nomination?"

It seems simple--those who favor this strategy (of supporting Cruz through votes, donations, endorsements, etc.) simply to stop Trump and not to approve of Cruz should simply make that preference public. Then if Cruz does force it to the convention, any claim he makes that his support suggests he should be the nominee is undercut by how vocal his "strategic supporters" have been about their motivations.

I'd suggest the same for Sanders supporters who don't care for his socialism but want to send a message to the DNC that Hillary is unacceptable.; 4/5/16, 8:58 AM
Tank said...: If they don't nominate Cruz or Trump, who together have ... what ... like 70-75% of the votes, you might as well just say President Vagina now. Lotta people will not bother to vote if both Cruz and Trump are together "cheated" out of the nomination.

The outsiders, Cruz and Trump, got the lion's share of the vote. If you stick a Ryan, or Romney, or Kasich in there by " convention rule," it's probably the end of the Republican Party. It's certain that they would be defeated in the general.; 4/5/16, 9:01 AM
Brando said...: "If they don't nominate Cruz or Trump, who together have ... what ... like 70-75% of the votes, you might as well just say President Vagina now. Lotta people will not bother to vote if both Cruz and Trump are together "cheated" out of the nomination."

I think they'll nominate one of the two, most likely Trump, but in any event a lot of people on the GOP side will not bother to vote no matter who gets nominated. The party is split and there's no natural uniter. Cruz is the closest we have to a uniter, and he's pretty unpopular in the party.; 4/5/16, 9:09 AM
traditionalguy said...: How do you stump the Trump? The world awaits the answer.

The current way is sending small frail women with pretend interview questions into his personal space to block his path and stick in a microphone. The questions are non-sense and structured like Megyn Kelly's as a challenge to admit bad things about him and his campaign.

The key is to irritate the Strong Man into rebuffing the woman in body language.

That is the super narrative tied into Hillary's run that will defeat the strong man. It will not work on Paul Ryan's acolyte eunuch persona with a fresh boy's face.; 4/5/16, 9:11 AM
pm317 said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/5/16, 9:12 AM
CWJ said...: Their party, their convention, their rules. But I find it highly ironic that California gets a whopping 177 delegates when the final nominee, whoever it s, has zero probablity of carrying the state.; 4/5/16, 9:27 AM
AllenS said...: Brando said...
Cruz is the closest we have to a uniter, and he's pretty unpopular in the party.

Too funny.; 4/5/16, 9:30 AM
Birkel said...: pm317 really wants Clinton to face Trump. Odd, that.; 4/5/16, 9:33 AM
Brando said...: "Cruz is the closest we have to a uniter, and he's pretty unpopular in the party.

Too funny."

It's true, though--Cruz has the outsider angle and the hard right angle, and the religious right, but not the "moderate" or "establishment" appeal. But who does?

This is a party that may be hopelessly split.; 4/5/16, 9:34 AM
pm317 said...: Birkel, don't be so presumptuous. I might even vote for Trump. But there is no doubt I want a Trump vs. Hillary in the general. I like what Trump is saying about the big picture. Cruz is a snake.; 4/5/16, 9:59 AM
Qwinn said...: "It's true, though--Cruz has the outsider angle and the hard right angle, and the religious right, but not the "moderate" or "establishment" appeal. But who does? "

Exactly. No one could unite those factions, because they are diametrically opposed. The "moderates" and "establishment" are basically Democrats in drag. In the last 20 years they've never supported an actual conservative candidate, ever. The actual conservatives have held their nose and voted for the squishes every election for those 20 years, and been shafted for it every time. They're sick of it, and they're not going to fall for it again.

Cruz is the first genuine conservative who's gotten close to the nomination since Reagan. He can and does unite all the factions that are actually conservative, plus he's going up against the weakest Democrat candidates since forever. I think he could beat Hillary handily in the general, and definitely do better than Trump will.; 4/5/16, 10:26 AM
Qwinn said...: As an addendum, though - in this bizarre current situation, I think the moderates and establishment WILL support Cruz (and many have, already). Sure, it's only as a means to stop Trump, but so what? Conservatives voted for Romney and McCain only as a means to stop Obama. Why should we be the only ones who have to vote for someone who isn't our preference in order to stop a greater evil? It's the establishment's turn to hold their noses and pull the switch for our guy, and I think Trump is the catalyst that will finally force them to do just that. About time.; 4/5/16, 10:30 AM
eric said...: I heard on Hugh Hewitt the other day some of the people who will be on the rules committee.

From what I understand, there are 2 people from each State and Outlying possession that make up the rules committee. Something like 108 people.

Hewitt talked to six of them. They all seemed to believe rule 40 was important and shouldnt be changed.

I think both Trump and Cruz will work to have something like rule 40. This means that if you didn't win a majority in 8 States (the number might change slightly) then you can't win.

Which will leave only Cruz and Trump.

Trump has been terrible at the behind the scenes work on stuff like this. But Cruz has not.

I believe Trump and Cruz combined will have a majority in the rules committee, and if that's the case, rule 40 won't be changed significantly and therefore, either Trump or Cruz will win.

And that makes me happy.; 4/5/16, 10:42 AM
Ron Snyder said...: Are these the same "experts" that have been saying that Trump is DOA?; 4/5/16, 10:53 AM
Big Mike said...: Well, the experts in Five Thirty-Eight have Trump getting to 1237 before the California primary, which has 172 delegates available. And he should get at least half of those delegates, given even though it's a closed primary (which favors Cruz).

Whoever I vote for in November will not be named Hillary Clinton.; 4/5/16, 11:01 AM
Gusty Winds said...: Ann Althouse said...How do you get people to vote for Cruz (to deny Trump) without creating the impression that Cruz has the kind of support that should get him the nomination?

Interesting. If Trump gets to 1201 as the experts in the graphic predict, with Cruz in second, how many millions of GOP primary votes will have to be tossed out the window to deny either of them the nomination?

I think this is a dangerous message for the GOP to send its voting base. And it seems a dangerous wish for anybody who tries to convince people that their vote actually matters, and participating in representative government is actually important.

Everyone is getting and education on convention rules and delegate math this year. It is scary to imagine that the electoral college could do the same with the popular vote, which is from what I understand it's original intent.; 4/5/16, 11:23 AM
JAORE said...: If you look at the "expert" numbers they include partial delegates for states that are winner take all - or take all including by congressional district. Using the "all" numbers (less a few for Congressional district exceptions, Trump gets a lot closer - maybe over the top.; 4/5/16, 12:18 PM
Birkel said...: Presumptuous? What a big word for somebody who was all in for Clinton way back in 2008. It's almost like you're trying to hide your own glee about the possibility of Trump ushering in an easy Clinton win.

You will vote for Clinton no matter what.
Lie to somebody else.; 4/5/16, 12:56 PM
pm317 said...: Birkel.. put a sock in it. Try to engage honestly and then I forget who I am dealing with. What is wrong with you?; 4/5/16, 1:44 PM
Qwinn said...: "Try to engage honestly and then I forget who I am dealing with"

Yes, because offhandedly dismissing the other candidate as "a snake" without explanation is an attempt to engage "honestly", not just ad hominem.; 4/5/16, 1:47 PM
Matt said...: What's interesting is to head over to the electoral college map for the General election and try to figure out how Trump gets 64 more electoral college points than Romney got in 2012. He would have to win every swing state and then put non swing [Democratic] states in play to beat Hillary.; 4/5/16, 2:16 PM
Qwinn said...: This is a pretty good analysis that shows Trump isn't going to make it to 1237 either:

https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/04/cruz-and-trump-likely-to-miss-delegate-target; 4/5/16, 2:18 PM
Brando said...: "What's interesting is to head over to the electoral college map for the General election and try to figure out how Trump gets 64 more electoral college points than Romney got in 2012. He would have to win every swing state and then put non swing [Democratic] states in play to beat Hillary."

The way I figure it the GOP nominee would need the Romney states, plus OH, VA, FL and one more electoral vote (likely NV or CO, or perhaps Iowa). But Romney's weakness in those states was mostly in the metro areas, particularly suburbs where Republicans were once dominant but now are outvoted by the Dems. Trump's numbers among the educated and women in general (not to mention minorities) suggest he'll do a lot worse than Romney there, and there's not a lot of room for improvement on the white working class men that Romney won.

Hell, right now Hillary beats him in Utah. Likely that changes by November, but still--sheesh.; 4/5/16, 2:22 PM
Matt said...: Brando
Yeah a recent poll shows Hillary within 3 points of Trump... in Mississippi.; 4/5/16, 2:45 PM
Brando said...: "Yeah a recent poll shows Hillary within 3 points of Trump... in Mississippi."

True, its' still early--but there's remarkably little evidence that he can beat her. And it does not seem to be in his nature to do what is necessary to broaden his appeal or mend fences.

It could get bad enough that Georgia is in play, and he loses Arizona and North Carolina. Forget the swing states, the Red States may not be safe with him on top of the ticket.; 4/5/16, 2:58 PM
Birkel said...: pm317:

If you were honest about your undying support of Hillary, come hell or high water, then I could take you seriously. But I don't, because you can't.

Stop faking it. You're not making it.; 4/5/16, 4:30 PM
Gusty Winds said...: You know the more I think about it, the GOP ditching promises and commitments to voters isn't that much of a surprise. The whole reason many GOP Trump and Cruz voters are so pissed is because given majorities in the House and the Senate, they didn't deliver on what they promised. They didn't even fight for it.

I guess we shouldn't expect delegates at the GOP convention to adhere to the will of their voting supporters either.; 4/5/16, 7:08 PM
pm317 said...: Birkel, you are crazy. Faking what? I already said I want to see Trump vs. Hillary in the General and I like what Trump is saying and might even consider voting for Trump. Deal with it.; 4/5/16, 7:49 PM
justaguy said...: Trump-Rubio--adds to 99 delegates to his total! Or some other combination.; 4/9/16, 10:29 AM