"... while Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Ted Cruz are lagging behind at single digits, according to a new [Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register] poll [of Republican caucus-goers] released Saturday."
Bush’s ratings were just above water, with 46 percent of respondents saying they view him favorably and 43 percent unfavorably.... Christie’s unfavorability rating is even worse at 54 percent...
Walker, meanwhile, has catapulted to the head of the field, with a commanding 60 percent of respondents giving him positive marks (up from 49 percent in October) and 12 percent offering a negative take (essentially unchanged from three months ago). The Wisconsin governor, one of the few contenders whose appeal spans the establishment and social conservative wings of the party, gave a well-received speech to Iowa conservatives last weekend.
More here:
"Walker Surging in Iowa Poll as Bush Struggles."
“A majority think [Walker]’s got the right balance between conservative and moderate,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of West Des Moines-based Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “Caucus-goers deciding on the basis of a candidate's values put him in second place, and he's in first place with those who say electability is more important.”...
“I like what he did to Wisconsin, and I think he'd be great at getting rid of a bunch of stuff that the government is doing to us,” said Kerri Vaughn, a carpenter from western Iowa who has followed Walker's career mostly on Fox News. “He seems like he means what he says, and does what he says and is an honorable man.”
I think 90% of the people within a 30 mile radius of where I am sitting right now are flummoxed/boiling/despairing over the way the man they've been hating for the last 4 years is being received in the state across the river.
That's not a scientific poll, just a poll of my feelings from my desk at the center of The Oasis of Self-Perceived Sanity that is Madison, Wisconsin.
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69 comments:
"I think 90% of the people within a 30 mile radius of where I am sitting right now are flummoxed/boiling/despairing over the way the man they've been hating for the last 4 years is being received in the state across the river."
Ain't it grand?
It's almost 2 years(!) before the election. Why is *anyone* reporting on a poll already?
Reality can have that effect when you have no immunity due to lack of past exposure.
Madison progressives are having a Bizarro Sally Field moment.
I must be in a grouchy mood because I find those metaphors highly irritating.
And it's way too early to start drinking.
My cross to bear.
Iowa is not a typical state for Republicans. It is much more of a social conservative state but Walker seems to do well with them and his fiscal reforms will be popular with the libertarian wing which has little time for the social conservative usual heroes like Huckaby and Santorum, both losers elsewhere.
I liked one Iowa story that said Walker is like a bowl of perfect porridge that is not too hot and not too cold, but just right. That must be a Mid-western thought.
Meanwhile, back in Establishment Donor Land JEB has announced victory and is interviewing possible VPs.
Who cares who's going to win the right to lose to Hillary?
Liberals live in a liberal bubble, I think they're very ignorant people however smart they might be they seem to place a higher value on feelings than facts.
Walker v. Warren. I want to see that general election so Althouse can muse on it from the heart of Madison.
Walker, meanwhile, has catapulted to the head of the field, with a commanding 60 percent of respondents giving him positive marks
And this in spite of media describing him to the general public in tones ranging from silence to languid disdain to active hostility.
Actions do far better than words.
I imagine that lady who krypto locked her neck to an iron fence to defend civil service union arrangements is not happy over this. I wish Meade or some other enterprising person could find her and interview her now. I would love her perspective on this.
Interesting how African Americans fare so poorly in Madison / Dane county relative to rest of WI and the United States. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/tackle-racial-disparity-wisconsins-capital-community-leaders-start-young/ Much cognitive dissonance among Madison’s so-called progressives?
That Boston Globe story about Jeb Bush being the captain of his high school tennis team will really hurt him in Iowa.
Take a hint, progs: "You can't win, Vader. If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine."
They hit Walker hard on foreign policy on ABC's This Week. Walker gave a pretty weak performance and tried not to get pinned to any specifics.
I think 90% of the people within a 30 mile radius of where I am sitting right now are flummoxed/boiling/despairing over the way the man they've been hating for the last 4 years is being received in the state across the river.
Exaggerate much? Madison is not that liberal. Walker got 30% of the vote in your county. Certainly more than just you and Meade voted against his recall.
"I think 90% of the people within a 30 mile radius of where I am sitting right now are flummoxed/boiling/despairing over the way the man they've been hating for the last 4 years is being received in the state across the river."
The fact that their despair makes you and your supporters so happy is a huge part of what is so wrong with our society today.
We'll know Walker has made it to the big time when we start reading that he was a bully in middle school. (Why middle school? Shouldn't it be high school? No, you ninny! Didn't you know Walker never went to high school?)
@ann althouse: I loved your 90% comment and I think it is 100% accurate!
Who cares who's going to win the right to lose to Hillary?
2/1/15, 10:12 AM
I got a little giggle outta this, then I realized you probably meant it.
Then I smiled contentedly.
Many years from now the Citizens of Madison will have erected a memorial flame to President Walker where the wealthy teachers will still gather to light candles in memory of their lost Union dues.
I've got two words for all you Scott Walker fans.
Tim Pawlenty
Sounds like the people are ahead of the pols again.
"I wish Meade or some other enterprising person could find her and interview her now."
You don't need me to do it. You can interview madisonfella yourself. But why would you want to?
Why would progressives be upset about a poll of Republican caucus goers?
In other news, Big Republican Money threatens to quit if JeBush isn't the nominee.
Big wah
Call me sour grapes, but I see the whole GOP field imploding by summer.
Walker will rise to the top, but there will be tepid support from the rank and file.
The rest of the country will say "ho-hum".
Hiliary will be on the rise.
It will look like a coronation is inevitable for Inaguration Day 2017.
In true cliffhanger fashion a big Draft Mitt movement will rise up.
Romney will sweep into the Republican Convention, become the nominee and ride the wave to the presidency in November of 2016.
A new era begins.
"I think Republicans know that Walker would be way better than Obama or Hillary."
Democrats know it too. They just can't let themselves admit it.
Betting against Walker is a stupid bet. Wisconsin Democrats have learned that hard reality the real hard way.
The fact that their despair makes you and your supporters so happy is a huge part of what is so wrong with our society today.
The fact tht the americn people were repeatedly lied to abot ObamaCare has nothing to do with it huh.
Romney will sweep into the Republican Convention, become the nominee and ride the wave to the presidency in November of 2016.
I'll take that bet.
"The fact that their despair makes you and your supporters so happy is a huge part of what is so wrong with our society today."
You nailed it.
My Schadenboner is huge today. And that's so wrong.
But what can I do? When I try to push it down my heels come up.
"The fact that their despair makes you and your supporters so happy is a huge part of what is so wrong with our society today."
What in the world did they think was going to be the reaction to their vitriol?
Walker yes. Rand Paul, fuck you.
"My Schadenboner is huge today."
In the event of a schadenboner that persists longer than 24 months, the patient should seek immediate medical assistance.
"Who cares who's going to win the right to lose to Hillary?"
I think Hillary may stumble and we could see somebody like Malloy or another Democrat governor nominated instead. The Democrats are in big trouble if Hillary, Biden and Warren are all they have.
"You don't need me to do it. You can interview madisonfella yourself. But why would you want to?"
Good one. :)
"Exaggerate much? Madison is not that liberal. Walker got 30% of the vote in your county. Certainly more than just you and Meade voted against his recall."
Did you even read the next sentence?
You have no ability to hear humor in things written by people you perceive as your opponents. You just sound peevish and mad all the time. Hell, I am showing empathy for my neighbors and you just grasp at something hostile to say to me. What a grim old biddy you are!
Are we approaching peak Walker?
It generally hasn't worked out well to peak too early in the republican primary race.
"The fact that their despair makes you and your supporters so happy is a huge part of what is so wrong with our society today."
Where did I express happiness at the unhappiness of my neighbors? I expressed empathy.
The fact that my empathy makes you see meanness is a huge part of what is so wrong with you.
And by "medical assistance" I don't mean a consultation with Dr. Frederson, Dr. Madisonfella, or Dr. Obamacare. Those actions are contraindicated and will only compound your schadenpriapism.
Personally, at this point I'd prefer Paul to Walker. But the campaign season is young. Let's see where it goes.
Meade's on a roll, watch out.
Schadenpriapism. It hurts so good.
But if it gets out of hand pondering the idea of President Hillary provides fast relief.
90%, you say. Encouraging, I say.
And those like madisonfella can't understand, let alone empathize, those who don't agree with him.
schadenpriapism
Heh.
In trying to slay a Prince, have Madison lefties made a King? Time will tell.
Did you even read the next sentence?
Yes I did. And it confirmed that you are needlessly hostile (not empathetic) to your neighbors. 90% of your neighbors are deluded and lack the clear-eyed vision that you and Meade possess.
"Yes I did. And it confirmed that you are needlessly hostile (not empathetic) to your neighbors. 90% of your neighbors are deluded and lack the clear-eyed vision that you and Meade possess."
Well, I think you are deluded. I'll concede that.
Your inability to see that you were wrong and to say you're sorry is just sad. You come across as a big old sourpuss -- no ability to perceive humor, no willingness to read and understand words before popping your template on.
That is the worst of Madison. I'll give you that, and I will concede that I do feel like calling you back and smacking you around.
Freder... All the Professor said was that you seem to be too stubborn to join into a friendly discussion if there is any chance that you may be wrong.
So why go and prove that she is right?
calling you back and smacking you around
Walker v Warren sounds right. She will kick him good.
Steve Uhr
Because you don't know a soul who doesn't love Warren??
LOL
Walker vs. Warren? Both have the names for the office, which counts. Gary Hart was scoffed at for originally being Gary Hartpence. So forget the latest iteration of Pence. Pawlenty is the wrong name along with Santorum, which sounds like somewhere a crypt keeper lives. Clinton is good as is Bush. Paul is a good except for the unfortunate, Rand, as the first name, sounds too bookish for the American people. These are my observations from another oasis of rational thought on the coast of Massachusetts.
As to peevish sounding liberals: it is not their fault they were educated, their brains filled with a Cliff Notes type of system with the whole world of ideas reduced to one sentence answers, which they go to everytime. The one sentence answer also has a judgement addendum, simply good or bad. Nazism bad - Socialism good.
In post-truth America this works for them.
Corn subsidy promises rule the election. Do we wonder how we get what we have to choose from?
Interesting. I read the transcript, as opposed to watching the actual interview, and was underwhelmed. Walker said cautious, uninspired, entirely conventional things. Boring, even. Who doesn't say "we need to enforce the law" and "we need big bold new ideas" and "don't elect Washington insiders" and other such blather? This interview wouldn't persuade me to vote for Walker at all.
But Althouse thinks it was brilliant. Such poise! Why's that? I'm going to guess because if you watch it, instead of reading it, you see...something...in the visual presentation. Cool, confident body language. A reassuring manly tone in the voice. God knows what, but some "leadership" message delivered through the nonverbal primate cues.
Which, of course, is exactly what got so many people who watched and listened to Barack Obama in 2008 to vote for him, despite the complete lack of reason to do so found in the content of what he said, or of his life.
I doubt Walker is exactly the new Obama. He's been a governor, after all, which is a much more significant job than Senator. But he does share with Obama the fact that his most significant accomplishments are routinely listed as winning elections.
It'll be Bush/Walker 2016. Some Democrats will call that Bushwacker 2016 but no one will really laugh. And then they will lose to Clinton/Somebody 2016 but Walker will be in the catbird position for the 2020 GOP nod. You heard it here first!
Compare and contrast:
Walker Surging in Iowa Poll as Bush Struggles.
(reportage via bloomberg.com)
Jeb Bush has become the GOP front-runner for 2016...
(WaPo analysis by Karen Tumulty)
Leaving aside the fact that Tumulty couldn't call a race between Secretariat and Francis the Talking Mule, this sudden, premature, and devoid-of-data christening of a GOP front-runner betokens a specter haunting the editorial boards of Democrat press corps. The inevitable Hillary isn't looking too inevitable now, therefore the press is promoting the perceived soft-target.
Actually, most of us are talking about the $300M cuts to the UW System. What's happening in Iowa is quite secondary.
"I think 90% of the people within a 30 mile radius of where I am sitting right now are flummoxed/boiling/despairing over the way the man they've been hating for the last 4 years is being received in..."
...most of the same state they live in.
Blogger Ann Althouse said...
calling you back and smacking you around
This is the difference between conservatives and liberals.
These sorta quotes by Democrats don't get traction because I don't care.
If he had said, "I am going to smack you around for that!" then I'd care.
But she hung up on the phone on him after saying something like, "Yeah, isn't that a crime." and then, click.
Then a long pause and he says to someone in the room with him, "I feel like calling her back and smacking her around."
Big deal. He didn't say it to her. He let someone know his feelings at being treated like that.
Does anyone like to be hung up on? Did he call her back and smack her around?
Again, I don't care.
However, if this had been a Republican who said it? Then the entire world would be made to care.
AReasonableMan: "Are we approaching peak Walker?"
Given the lefts (vs reality) performance on "Peak Oil", probably not the best use of the "Peak" concept in an analysis of a Repub nominee.
mrs.e: "Actually, most of us are talking about the $300M cuts to the UW System."
Well, harrumph!!
It's just too horrible to contemplate isn't it? The UW system (and all university systems for that matter) have had it so rough for so long........
...except they haven't.
At all.
Even way back in 2012 (and much earlier) it had been noted how Universities somehow avoided all of the financial hardships faced by the rest of our society:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveodland/2012/03/24/college-costs-are-soaring/
snip: "Since 1982 a typical family income increased by 147%, more than inflation but significantly behind the huge increase in college costs. College costs have been rising roughly at a rate of 7% per year for decades. Since 1985, the overall consumer price index has risen 115% while the college education inflation rate has risen nearly 500%."
A $300M cut after decades of university cost hyperinflation of tuition/fees sounds about right.
Oh BTW, that's $300M over 2 years, so $150M per year.
For a system whose annual budget is $6B annually with $1.2B in state funding.
Not exactly a crime against humanity.
Quaestor That line comparing Secretariat and Francis The Talking Mule is hoot. I don't care who you are, that's funny. No offense, but I'm stealing it.
Tim Pawlenty has been mentioned a couple of times as the previous incarnation of Walker-For-President. I admit to being a supporter of Pawlenty 4 years ago and a tentative supporter of Walker now, so let me say that the comparison is only semi-apt.
Both Pawlenty and Walker were/are successful governors elected in upper midwest blue states. But (for me, anyway) the big appeal of Pawlenty in 2012 was his relative colorlessness. I thought the best strategy for the Republicans in 2012 was to make the election a referendum on Obama; a colorless, noncontroversial Republican candidate was right for that strategy. The GOP money people didn't agree, so that test was never run.
Now, Obama won't be on the ballot in 2016, so the election won't be a referendum on BO. The Democratic candidate will, it's true, have to deal with the unpopularity of Obama's policies, and that will be a drag, but Hillary! and Warren are in a good or excellent position to distance themselves from Obama's failures. Even Biden has been trying to do that (pretty funny).
So the Republicans in 2016 need a good candidate, not a merely colorless one. BUT the American people may -- MAY -- have been burned enough by the Obama experience that they will be leery of smooth talking snake oil salesmen who tell them what they want to hear. They may want someone that they have confidence can actually run the government and talks straight. That could be Walker. If not him, who? If not now, when? (to paraphrase)
Tim Pawlenty? You mean the guy in the old Frank Perdue chicken commercials?
Where did I express happiness at the unhappiness of my neighbors?
Umm, right here:
That's not a scientific poll, just a poll of my feelings from my desk at the center of The Oasis of Self-Perceived Sanity that is Madison, Wisconsin.
Generally, if you is trying to be empathetic, you not describe those you are pretending to display empathy for as living in a state of "Self-Perceived Sanity." You might get away with pretending to be sympathetic, but empathetic, I don't think so.
The main goal of the eventual GOP nominee will be to do three things simultaneously while securing the nomination.
1) Appeal to the party's right wing enough to get them to the polls and not support a third party candidate. A strong turnout operation is key, and the nominee has to be just conservative enough without ruining 2) and 3) below.
2) Avoid firing up the Democrats' left wing in a way that would drive them to the polls without Hillary having to shift herself to the left. Hillary will run to the center the whole way, which may depress the party's left, but the GOP can do her work for her by scaring the left to the polls. Even a moderate candidate can screw this up by trying too hard to win over the right, as Romney did last time around. The right never liked him, but he still managed to make easy fodder for Obama to get his own voters to the polls.
3) Win over the moderates. (This isn't the same thing as "independents" who claim no party affiliation but can be very conservative or liberal--the moderates are in both parties as well as unaffiliated, and tend to split tickets and swing their votes from election to election based on their shifting moods, the strengths of the candidates, and changing national circumstances). The GOP will have a chance with these voters, as Hillary is a weak campaigner and Obama fatigue is setting in.
Now, getting all three accomplished during the primary and general is difficult, partly because what helps one goal may undercut the other. But I believe a candidate who has credibility with the right can run towards the middle and by casting the right image before the Clintons can define him this can be done.
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