Althouse: Predict an upset.

November 3, 2014

Predict an upset.

There are many ways to have fun watching the election returns, and one way it to place some bets. I've told you about the bet Meade and I have about the Wisconsin gubernatorial election, but yesterday I came up with another topic for betting. Predict an upset. This led to some boring discussion of what counts as an upset, and I came up with the boring idea that it's an upset if a candidate with a predicted 58% chance of winning loses. By this standard, in the Senate races, there can be no upset in Kansas, but all the other races have a predicted winner whose loss would be an upset.

So pick an upset to bet on. I picked Scott Brown to beat Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, and Meade picked Thom Tillis to beat Kay Hagan in North Carolina.

74 comments:

Meade said...: Even though I have a big crush on Kay Hagen.; 11/3/14, 7:01 AM
Meade said...: And it looks like I'm not alone.; 11/3/14, 7:05 AM
Brando said...: I don't know if it counts as an "upset" by those criteria, but I'll go on a limb and say Paul LePage squeaks one out in Maine.; 11/3/14, 7:10 AM
West Texas Intermediate Crude said...: I'll be happy if Ezra Klein is upset tomorrow night.; 11/3/14, 7:12 AM
NotWhoIUsedtoBe said...: Not much left for upsets. The races have settled out in the last week.

I'm voting for Gardner in Colorado, but for the sake of this exercise I'll pick Udall as an upset. Colorado is weird that way.; 11/3/14, 7:13 AM
paminwi said...: You mean the Kay Hagan who funneled all kinds of stimulus money to her family? And then the Charlotte Observer pulls an unflattering article about this story?

Do not print an "unflattering" story about Kay Hagan!; 11/3/14, 7:13 AM
Birkel said...: "garage mahal" will be very upset.

My outside the norm guesstimation:
The predicted runoff in Louisiana will not be necessary. The traditionally Democrat state will elect a Republican senator on the first vote.; 11/3/14, 7:21 AM
sojerofgod said...: You all talk about betting on these upset outcomes, but you don't say what is the wager! That's the most interesting part!; 11/3/14, 7:23 AM
sane_voter said...: My close upset is Brown over Shaheen. My longshot upset is Gillespie beats Warner in VA. This a 99-1 upset per 538.; 11/3/14, 7:25 AM
Will Cate said...: I think your upset prediction is more likely to happen than Meade's. Here in NC, Tillis really isn't all that popular -- I think folks were willing to vote for him if it meant taking the Senate back, but that doesn't seem to be the case any more.

Fivethirtyeight.com is saying *eight* senate offices are more likely to flip to Republican before North Carolina, so the "must win" sense of urgency has sort-of evaporated here.; 11/3/14, 7:26 AM
Bob R said...: I'm afraid that sane_voter is misnamed if he's picking an upset in VA. I'm picking Hagen for my upset.; 11/3/14, 7:38 AM
Irene said...: I also choose Cory Gardner over Mark Udall in Colorado.; 11/3/14, 7:39 AM
Big Mike said...: @Althouse, I hope he gave you odds. Looking at the polls, I think Hagen is definitely a goner. I don't think that her loss is much of an upset.

My pick for an upset is that both Udall cousins lose.; 11/3/14, 7:39 AM
Anonymous said...: I predict both sides will proclaim victory regardless of the outcome.

I predict there will be the rumbling of lawyers.

I predict there will be anguished allusions to Hitler. There are always anguished allusions to Hitler.

I predict that, regardless of the outcome, nothing will actually change. Window dressing.

I predict Presidential Executive Decisions will occur amidst fierce complaints but, in the end, impotence by those complaining.

I predict that we will have Amnesty for illegal immigrants and big business will be happy regardless of who won: both sides will help in this matter.

I believe this Amnesty will be catastrophic to blacks having any hope of improvement in employment conditions. I also predict many won't even have seen it coming.

I predict free birth control is here to stay.

I predict that, regardless who wins, we will have less freedom in two years than we do now, when we start this all over again.; 11/3/14, 7:41 AM
DrMaturin said...: In a deja vu scenario harkening back to 1994 and Cuomo the elder, Rob Astorino squeaks past Andrew Cuomo for NY Governor.; 11/3/14, 7:44 AM
Stephen A. Meigs said...: My little theory about such matters is that those who believe in privacy tend to do much better than the polls suggest, because people who believe in privacy don't tend to answer polls. A little Google searching reveals that Udall of Colorado has been very outspoken against the NSA, and thus (to my mind) should do well among those who love privacy. According to 538, he has a 78% chance of losing. He would be my upset pick. But I try not to view elections as games, and am pretty indifferent as to what trends are about things generally.; 11/3/14, 7:52 AM
RecChief said...: Big Mike said...
@Althouse, I hope he gave you odds. Looking at the polls, I think Hagen is definitely a goner. I don't think that her loss is much of an upset.

My pick for an upset is that both Udall cousins lose.

You might be right. Donna Brazile is already talking about voting machines changing votes to GOP a la Illinois and Maryland. My suspicion is that she is making it up, providing a rationalization for Hagen's loss. Would love to see Democrat internal polling numbers in several races, even after the fact. I'm betting they would be interesting reading, even as historical artifacts.; 11/3/14, 7:54 AM
Saint Croix said...: When I was in high school I used to run book on the ACC basketball tournament. This is actually a crime, I think, but everybody wanted to bet anyway. The way I worked it--I was a bookie mastermind--I set odds on all 8 teams. This was back when the ACC actually had universities on the atlantic coast. And no damn Yankees. Unless you count Maryland which a lot of people do. Don't even get me started on Notre Dame and Syracuse being in the ACC. Or whoever and whoever, I don't pay attention anymore. But back when I was in high school, everybody had ACC basketball fever, and they had it bad. And I was the bookie mastermind. I gave the shittiest possible odds on UNC and Duke. UNC was like 3-2 and Duke was 2-1. And I gave super-awesome odds on Clemson. Clemson was like 25-1 or something. I wanted all the Clemson money I could get. But everybody wanted to bet on Carolina or Duke, Carolina or Duke. Anyway, by the time I had collected all the bets, no matter who won the tournament I was winning money. This is why Vegas has a reputation, I guess. Anyway, there were no wise guys in Charlotte in the 1980's, as far as I know, so the high school student was stealing all their action. And I skipped school to watch the first day of the tournament. I'm telling you, ACC basketball fever was something. That's probably what all the university guys are saying when they bring in Yankee schools and Notre Dame. Let's make money off all the rubes! ACC fever, catch it.; 11/3/14, 7:59 AM
traditionalguy said...: Hagan is a nice person trapped inside the Behemoth of Democrat Politics. We need to set her free.; 11/3/14, 7:59 AM
Rumpletweezer said...: As much as I've been wrong with predicting past elections, I'm still going to predict a longshot: Larry Hogan defeats Anthony Brown in dark, dark blue Maryland.; 11/3/14, 8:03 AM
traditionalguy said...: I like the last gasp anti-Joni Ernst spin that since she is very good looking and a very nice person...so she cannot be any good at politics.That is one of the most sexist statements ever made.; 11/3/14, 8:04 AM
PB said...: I hope you both win.; 11/3/14, 8:04 AM
Anonymous said...: How about we predict the Congressperson most likely to die while serving their time in office. No fair shooting your predicted Congressperson just to win. Unless you were going to do that, anyway.; 11/3/14, 8:06 AM
Anonymous said...: I predict it would take a minimum of fourteen Congressperson assassinations before any change is felt. Until then: more of the same.; 11/3/14, 8:10 AM
Saint Croix said...: I'll bet Kay Hagen is sorry she wore a blue dress.; 11/3/14, 8:10 AM
traditionalguy said...: I predict Zeus defeats Mary Burke as a write in vote; 11/3/14, 8:10 AM
I'm Full of Soup said...: Repub PA governor TOM Corbett winning over Dem challenger Tom Wolf would be the biggest surprise of the night. So I will go with that.; 11/3/14, 8:12 AM
Meade said...: sojerofgod said...
"You all talk about betting on these upset outcomes, but you don't say what is the wager! That's the most interesting part!"

The wager is 1 betamax. She has an old Sony, I have an old NEC. Whoever wins will then have 2 - a Sony and a NEC. 1 is the max wager because neither of us has more than 1. Therefore, we are each betting the max: Bet-a-max. Get it?; 11/3/14, 8:14 AM
Original Mike said...: I have an old Sony Betamax. Last time I used it, a year or so ago, it still worked.; 11/3/14, 8:16 AM
rehajm said...: Nate says there’s only a 27 percent chance (Republicans will) be able to claim their victory within the first 24 hours or so after polls close on Nov 4.

My upset is it's over by Wednesday.; 11/3/14, 8:17 AM
Mr. D said...: Jeff Johnson is closing fast on Mark Dayton in the Minnesota governor's race. Dayton can't get over 50% so there's a chance it could tip.; 11/3/14, 8:19 AM
Anonymous said...: Meade said...

"The wager is 1 betamax."

I'm glad you clarified that. I wasn't sure whether to be scared or excited.; 11/3/14, 8:20 AM
Ignorance is Bliss said...: I'll go with Colorado. Too many absentee ballots floating around.; 11/3/14, 8:22 AM
rehajm said...: And to hedge I'll add one more- Alaska polling is notoriously problematic. If I had to pick one place where the pollsters will get it wrong, It's Alaska. Sullivan currently has a 72% chance there.; 11/3/14, 8:23 AM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: Betamax3000 nails it in his first post. Hope no longer springs eternal in Bark's America.; 11/3/14, 8:36 AM
Saint Croix said...: The thing I remember about Monica Lewinsky, and don't blame me, I say Meade hijacked the thread, she was so young. "The big creep!" And she had horrible fashion sense. That damn purple beret.

I do not blame her for not dry cleaning the dress, although I have heard people blame her. My mom blames her. "Why didn't she dry clean the dress?!" I didn't actually explain this to my mom, but when I have a sexcapade, running to the dry cleaners is like #162 on my list of things to do. In fact I don't even have a list of things to do, I'm so happy I got laid. Just call me a pig in shit, that's all right.

I just had a thought about Mr. Bill Clinton and his weird sexual practices. I always assumed he was a pervert. And then I thought, maybe he was worried about pregnancy, so he's avoiding sex for that reason. But why wouldn't he use a condom? Or have a vasectomy?

And then it occurred to me that it was just like smoking pot. "I didn't inhale." And that's his alibi for Monica Lewinsky. "I didn't stick it in, honey." Imagine planning your lie in advance. "I'm going to pretend to inhale marijuana in case I decide to run for President one day." Bill Clinton, rather like a cock-sucking virgin, has his story all planned out. "I did not have sexual relations with that women." Because sodomy isn't sex, that why. I'm not sure if you should run for office on that, gay people might think you're insane.; 11/3/14, 8:39 AM
Anonymous said...: Meade said...

"The wager is 1 betamax."

Now I wonder: if I WAS the betamax in question would the winner get me, or would I be foisted on the loser?; 11/3/14, 8:44 AM
BarrySanders20 said...: That Kay Hagen story was also amusing for the reference Bill used to describe himself as a retired race horse.

Retired race horses are put out to stud.

And not with the old Hillary type mares.; 11/3/14, 8:49 AM
chillblaine said...: Democrats retain control of the Senate. They will accomplish this in part by their media machine putting the whammy on Republican turnout. Also, DWS has been touting their 'ground game.' I suspect this is code talk for cheating, dead souls to the polls, etc.

Joe Biden will be the cock-of-the-walk as he is called to Capitol Hill to cast the occasional tie-breaking vote. Huzzah!; 11/3/14, 8:58 AM
geokstr said...: Meade said...
Even though I have a big crush on Kay Hagen.

Geez, Meade, with a little hottie like the perfessor around, why would you bother having a crush on anyone else? Yeah, I know she's a lib, but still...

As far as predictions go, I think nearly every race will be much closer than the polls show, and several of them will turn "D" on multiple recounts to ensure that all the non-citizen votes and boxes of ballots discovered post hoc have been included.; 11/3/14, 9:17 AM
Unknown said...: Cory Gardner is ahead in every single poll at RCP. Every one.
If Mark Uterus wins, it will be due to vote fraud.; 11/3/14, 9:23 AM
DanTheMan said...: Before Lewinsky:
"Where's the proof? You have no evidence!"
After Lewinsky:
"What kind of sick woman keeps proof?"

See the pattern? :); 11/3/14, 9:26 AM
viator said...: "The WMUR/UNH Granite State Poll shows Shaheen up 1, 49-48 (sample of 757 likely voters polled 10/29-11/2, MOE 3.6 percent). WMUR declares the race too close to call. The New England College poll shows Shaheen down 1, 48-49 (sample of 1,526 likely voters polled on 10/31-11/1, MOE 2.51 percent)."

from Powerline; 11/3/14, 9:34 AM
Freeman Hunt said...: A weird year. I'm voting for at least two Democrats. (Not in the Senate race though.) That doesn't happen very often anymore.; 11/3/14, 9:37 AM
Meade said...: "Now I wonder: if I WAS the betamax in question would the winner get me, or would I be foisted on the loser?"

That would depend on which day of the week it is and which one you're wearing: your Scott Brown boots or your Kay Hagan wig.; 11/3/14, 9:45 AM
Anonymous said...: Freeman Hunt said:

"A weird year. I'm voting for at least two Democrats. (Not in the Senate race though.) That doesn't happen very often anymore."

I've just lost all respect for Freeman Hunt.

My upset pick would be republican Brian Herr coming within 2 percentage points of beating Ed Markey, the feckless dem running for the Senate in insanely blue Massachusetts. If this election is that close than it is truly a wave year for repubs.; 11/3/14, 10:07 AM
Drago said...: I'll go out on a limb and predict the dems hold the Senate.

But you have to understand, I'm also the Bronco's fan that picked New England to win by 2 scores and didn't even bother watching the game because of it.

I was tempted to go with Broncos lose by 3 scores once I saw the weather, but even I wasn't that cynical.....but I should have been.

So maybe I should go with Republicans only pick up 4 seats. The Republicans are capable of screwing it up that much along with the dems "finding" enough ballots to put guys like Franken over the top ("so what if over 1,000 felons voted, I'm sure their votes broke evenly between candidates").; 11/3/14, 10:09 AM
Drago said...: April Apple: "Cory Gardner is ahead in every single poll at RCP. Every one.
If Mark Uterus wins, it will be due to vote fraud."

There are ALOT of ballots sitting around in trash cans and dumpsters in "ghetto aurora", as our dem voting "helpers" have made not of.; 11/3/14, 10:13 AM
Doug said...: Upset pick: Clay Aiken over Renee Ellmers in NC 2nd district.; 11/3/14, 10:16 AM
JSD said...: Brando has LePage winning a second term for governor in Maine. That’s a wicked long shot. Vociferously despised by all liberals. The newspapers (mostly owned by Congresswoman Chelli Pingree’s billionaire husband), ran stories every day for the past four years depicting him as a buffoon. The stories are accurate. However, the man has an earthy charm that connects with the unsophisticated underbelly of the state. Before he turned to politics, he managed the Marden’s, a bottom end retail store selling salvage inventory. The store is a big hit with bargain shoppers. Back then, he could be found every afternoon at a Waterville Maine topless club. My liberal friends (those with a sense of humor) call him LaPig. It would be great entertainment value to see him win again.; 11/3/14, 10:20 AM
Anonymous said...: I'm going to call this the fraud vote election.

If Republicans win 52 or more Senate seats, then this whole idea of fraudulent voting is too small to be of much concern.

On the other hand, if Republican gains are too small to get over 50 Senate seats, then I'll be seriously concerned about fraud and won't believe for a minute that Republicans can win another Presidential election.; 11/3/14, 10:21 AM
mccullough said...: Bill Clinton Plugs Kay Hagan in NC.

That is a great headline.; 11/3/14, 10:24 AM
RecChief said...: I wouldn't predict an upset until I knew which party a particular state's Secretary of State is from.; 11/3/14, 10:30 AM
RecChief said...: If Republicans win 52 or more Senate seats, then this whole idea of fraudulent voting is too small to be of much concern.

I disagree. There is no such thing as "too small" when it ocmes to vote fraud; 11/3/14, 10:34 AM
gerry said...: Brown in New Hampshire. That will set the tone for the evening.; 11/3/14, 10:44 AM
SteveR said...: Weh over cuzzin Tom Udall in NM would be on the top of my list of preferred long shots.; 11/3/14, 10:56 AM
Freeman Hunt said...: I've just lost all respect for Freeman Hunt.

You're awfully concerned about my local sheriff's party affiliation.

Turns out there just one vote for a Democrat. Found out that the other one is not pro-life. Too bad because he seems highly competent.; 11/3/14, 11:35 AM
LarryK said...: A la NYTimes, Brett Hulsey wins by not losing to Scott Walker. The "Hulsey 2018" bandwagon starts to roll Wed morning.; 11/3/14, 11:36 AM
Meade said...: I've just lost all respect for Freeman Hunt.

If I didn't already have complete respect for Freeman Hunt, I would've picked up all the respect for her lost by poker1one. I would have then added it to all the respect I already have for her, causing me to have more than 100% respect for her which is impossible as one can't have more than all. So my level of respect remains steady at 100% (me being the nonpartisan radical moderate I am and am widely known to be).

@LarryK: Did I tell you I emailed Brett to ask him for a yard sign but he told me to make my own. He then asked if AA would endorse him on her blog. I replied, "she doesn't take requests." That's the last I heard.

Seems everyone thinks the path to the governor's mansion runs straight through Meadhouse. And of course it does. Which is just one more reason we oppose running a "high-speed" rail line right through our living room.; 11/3/14, 12:07 PM
RecChief said...: I don't think Udall will win. Hard to win when your millionaire donor heckles you; 11/3/14, 12:43 PM
Titus said...: I want tears tomorrow, and anger-raw emotion!

In most of the polls I have seen no one is even getting 50%-says lots about the candidates and electorate.

Drago, you missed an amazing game yesterday.

kiss kiss; 11/3/14, 12:43 PM
Drago said...: Titus: "Drago, you missed an amazing game yesterday."

Well, I wouldn't say I was "missing it" Bob.......

LOL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXsIfpnThFA; 11/3/14, 12:49 PM
Drago said...: Meade: " I would have then added it to all the respect I already have for her, causing me to have more than 100% respect for her which is impossible as one can't have more than all."

What are you, outta your mind?

Do you really want Trump to hear that?; 11/3/14, 12:50 PM
LarryK said...: Brett should make a trek to Meadhouse (on his Trek) to kiss your collective rings and beg for your blessing. Although you'd probably regret having him in your living room, especially if he's wearing his Speedo.; 11/3/14, 12:52 PM
Scott M said...: especially if he's wearing his Speedo

Speedo's are just highly specialized shorts. That wouldn't go over well.; 11/3/14, 1:11 PM
furious_a said...: Malloy (D) loses his Connecticut governorship.; 11/3/14, 1:15 PM
Rusty said...: My upset pick is Oberwiesew getting to within 5 percentage points of Durban.; 11/3/14, 1:21 PM
furious_a said...: My other upset:

Greg Abbott (R) wins by fewer than 20 pts.

Wendy Davis (if that is her real name) is just that personally odious and her campaign just that inept.; 11/3/14, 1:22 PM
George said...: Roberts squeaks out in Kansas.; 11/3/14, 2:49 PM
John Stodder said...: Rauner over Quinn in Illinois.

However, the results will be reported differently.; 11/3/14, 3:09 PM
MadisonMan said...: Brett should make a trek to Meadhouse (on his Trek)

What he would probably do would be to drive his car with the bike on it, park a block from the house, then bike there so it looks like he biked the entire way.; 11/3/14, 4:35 PM
Michael K said...: Why are the best sources for news on US politics the British newspapers ?; 11/3/14, 6:22 PM
Revenant said...: Why are the best sources for news on US politics the British newspapers ?

People with no skin in the game are usually the best analysts.; 11/3/14, 9:18 PM
sojerofgod said...: A Betamax? I guess I don't get it. Well, I got the Bet-a-max in joke and everything.
But....? I mean,
You still have one of those?
Can you explain why it has value?

To me ( I am a technologist) that is like saying I'll bet my wagon spoke against your buggy whip.; 11/3/14, 9:37 PM