Althouse: "The GOP’s chances of winning the Senate are 68.5 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast..."

October 31, 2014

"The GOP’s chances of winning the Senate are 68.5 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast..."

"... its highest figure of the year."

34 comments:

Sydney said...: I'll believe it when I see it.; 10/31/14, 9:29 PM
Mark said...: There's a whole lot of car trunks with ballots to be counted before we count the chickens.; 10/31/14, 10:08 PM
Left Bank of the Charles said...: So, there's still hope.; 10/31/14, 10:30 PM
Achilles said...: Colorado is particularly worrisome. They have same day registration and mail in ballots plus rules allowing individuals to gather multiple ballots at one time.

Gardner is ahead but the margin of fraud in Colorada is going to be larger than normal.; 10/31/14, 10:34 PM
chickelit said...: "The people who cast the votes don't decide an election, the people who count the votes do."

~Joseph Stalin; 10/31/14, 10:40 PM
Annie said...: It's not over 'til it's over. Never underestimate the fraud the democrats engage in (reports are already rampant) and the power of the illegal vote.

Open borders for a reason.; 10/31/14, 10:50 PM
RecChief said...: plus rules allowing individuals to gather multiple ballots at one time.

Here too. Boggles the mind.; 10/31/14, 11:24 PM
AmPowerBlog said...: Chances are probably better than that, but we'll see how it all shakes out on Tuesday. I'm predicting a Democrat bloodbath. Can't wait. I'm not going to be kind on Twitter either. Screw the bastards.; 10/31/14, 11:42 PM
Paul said...: Chances would be 100% if voter ID laws were in effect in all 50 states.

But Obama needs those illegals to even things out.; 10/31/14, 11:46 PM
HG said...: please ..dems are still in a tizzy over 2000 cause they coild not stteal it,,yrt the bigger point was,,Gore did not carry Tennessee and he did not carry arkansas..his and the incumnets home states,,,do that and there is no
Florida; 10/31/14, 11:47 PM
Wayne Moore said...: Republicans must, as Prof. Reynolds says, win by more than the margin of fraud. That margin may be quite high in some of the close races where Republicans have a small lead. These include Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, and Georgia, all of which Nate Silver says have a probability of Republican victory of 64% or more. DO not be surprised if the Dems take the Senate by 52- 48 or even 53 - 47. I'm not predicting, just being realistic. Silver also indicates that the most likely outcome is R winning 52 seats. Let's hope, but wait and see.; 11/1/14, 12:14 AM
Anonymous said...: This week I had an 87% chance the market wouldn't reach 2010. I took in a credit of $12.00 on that bet with a possible loss of $88.00.

I lost $88.00.; 11/1/14, 12:15 AM
Wayne Moore said...: Paul, Voter ID is necessary, but in person voting, which is subject to fraud, is less so than absentee voting and mail in voter registration.; 11/1/14, 12:18 AM
Carl said...: This is where numeracy comes in handy. That probability is given to a precision of about 1 part in 700. What kind of prediction can anyone make about anything to better than 1 part in 700? Not much. If you want to predict how long it take a baseball to reach home plate, given the exact angle and speed at which it left the pitcher's hand, you won't be able to do that well -- and the equations are precisely known. You can't predict the time of sunrise tomorrow to 1 part in 700 without a fancy computer program and detailed knowledge of your precise location, altitude, et cetera.

So what does it mean when someone makes a super precise prediction about something for which there is so little data, no known first-principles theory at all, wildly conflicting empirical models, a long history of ridiculous ("Dewey Beats Truman") failures, and which is obviously inherently hard to predict?

It means the prediction is garbage. Worthless. He reached into his ass and pulled out the notion Republicans more likely to win the Senate than not -- which any fool can tell you from reading the news, or just taking note of the economy, the President's popularity, and the seats in play -- and tagged it with a precise number so the innumerate would be impressed (and buy his product of course).

Hey, the probability of the price of gold rebounding Monday is 51.5684294%. Send me $150/week and I will send you my newsletter full of similar marvels of scientific prognostication. I have extremely detailed models for everything! With very complex equations I have to solve on a computer! There's lots of math, and that of course makes it scientific and totally clever.; 11/1/14, 1:32 AM
Beldar said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 11/1/14, 3:59 AM
Beldar said...: Every time I read Nate Silver's stuff, I think, "Yeah, he's pretty smart, he's got a good recent track record ...."

Then he writes something smarmy and grotesquely disingenuous, like this, to remind me who and what he really is:

"Republicans will have to win more than six Democratic-held seats if they lose a couple of their own. Their incumbent in Kansas, Sen. Pat Roberts, is only even-money to win re-election (although there’s a chance independent Greg Orman, even if he wins, could caucus with Republicans)."

Well, yeah, there's also a chance that Orman will be struck by lightning en route to the polls on Tuesday. I think there's a significantly higher chance of that, even in a clear blue sky, than of Orman caucusing with the GOP.

This isn't intellectually honest or even serious, it's just more partisan mendacity by the Dems.; 11/1/14, 4:00 AM
paminwi said...: I think Mark summarizes nicely what the Democrats are all about and he is totally on board with this method of winning!; 11/1/14, 7:07 AM
campy said...: "I'm not predicting, just being realistic."

I'm predicting: Dems will keep the senate.

I won't be a bit surprised if they even gain a seat or two.; 11/1/14, 7:16 AM
Unknown said...: Everyone expects the left to cheat. Why is that?; 11/1/14, 7:35 AM
chillblaine said...: "Everyone expects the left to cheat. Why is that?"

The left believes it is their moral imperative to cheat. The assumption that Republicans will allow corporations to poison babies is reason enough.; 11/1/14, 7:56 AM
rhhardin said...: He's quoting the odds he'd bet with, which is what probability means here.; 11/1/14, 8:08 AM
rhhardin said...: The right always just thinks that it needs to explain something better when it loses. Worthy opponent and all that.

The left thinks it needs more enforcers when it loses.; 11/1/14, 8:10 AM
garage mahal said...: LOL. Almost every single comment is that Democrats will cheat, when it's Republicans that send out bogus mailers, bogus absentee ballots, bogus robo-calls, throw out 40,000 new registration forms in GA, cut early voting, etc etc etc. Republicans just figure their side is doing it, so why wouldn't the other side be doing it too?; 11/1/14, 8:28 AM
Bob R said...: The old saying is that "conservatives believe their opponents are stupid, liberals believe their opponents are evil." Few people have scruples about cheating against evil.; 11/1/14, 8:37 AM
Original Mike said...: "Everyone expects the left to cheat. Why is that?"

The fact that they win 75% of close elections is one reason. Al Franken is another reason. Christine Gregoire is yet another.; 11/1/14, 8:40 AM
Rusty said...: garage mahal said...
LOL. Almost every single comment is that Democrats will cheat, when it's Republicans that send out bogus mailers, bogus absentee ballots, bogus robo-calls, throw out 40,000 new registration forms in GA, cut early voting, etc etc etc. Republicans just figure their side is doing it, so why wouldn't the other side be doing it too?

Because for some bizarre reason all the voting machine errors, all the found ballots, all the people arrested for vote fraud have been democrats. Cheating is what people like you do if you can't win honestly. Lying is a form of cheating. You yourself have proclaimed on this blog that you would happily lie to promote your agenda.
Now get busy. You have a lot of ballots to fill out before Tuesday.; 11/1/14, 8:43 AM
traditionalguy said...: The voters used to chose among which sweet loving lies sounded the best.

But suddenly Defeating Racism is not working. Winning a War on Women's Reproductive Rights is not working. Stopping a Global Warming Apocalypse is not working. Near Free Health Insurance is not working. Surrendering to oppressed Muslims is not working. Despising a nation of Jews that defend themselves is not working.Unlimited admission of the rest of Mexico and Central America to enjoy our welfare system is not working.

There is an awakening from a trance of a bad drug trip of Obama Lies. The voters don't want lie drugs anymore in any of the Progressive formats listed above.

Voters are rewarding straight talk. Which is a signal the GOP will nominate Rand Paul before the latest smooth talking Bush family Connecticut Liberal in conservative disguise.; 11/1/14, 8:55 AM
garage mahal said...: Because for some bizarre reason all the voting machine errors, all the found ballots, all the people arrested for vote fraud have been democrats

You just made that up. Because I suppose you have to, right?; 11/1/14, 8:56 AM
President-Mom-Jeans said...: "Have a Happy November 4th, jackass."

Garage, shouldn't you be out rounding up the "blackys" to vote against Walker?; 11/1/14, 9:36 AM
Birkel said...: "garage mahal" will point to the few Republicans who have been convicted of voter fraud.

"garage mahal" should, as a homework assignment, point to a single case of "found" votes that net-net benefitted a Republican.; 11/1/14, 9:39 AM
Phil 314 said...: There's something sad when a post based on a left leaning statistician suggests a Republican win, the majority of comments discuss voter fraud.

I found the story encouraging. Note the root of that word:

COURAGE; 11/1/14, 10:06 AM
Paul said...: Only one poll matters.

And that one will be asked Nov. 4th.

Everything else is just tea leaves.; 11/1/14, 3:06 PM
Anonymous said...: Now it's at 72%:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-polls-point-increasingly-to-republican-senate-win/; 11/1/14, 9:54 PM
Rusty said...: garage mahal said...
Because for some bizarre reason all the voting machine errors, all the found ballots, all the people arrested for vote fraud have been democrats

You just made that up. Because I suppose you have to, right?

No, garage. unlike you I don't have to make things up. Every news article lately has been democrats trying to steal votes.
I live in the state that raised vote stealing to an art form.
You have votes to steal, now get busy.; 11/2/14, 8:02 AM