"Internal poll show Romney trailing in Nevada, reflected in a consensus among senior advisers that Obama will probably win the state. Early voting in Nevada has shown very heavy turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County and union organisation in the state is strong."
More polls, sorry. I know the previous post expressed a longing for more soul and subjectivity.
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157 comments:
Nevada was never really considered a possible win for Romney so this is an "eh."
File this post under "Grasping at straws". Seen a lot of this from our friends on the right the last few days.
TWM,
There are some number of union households that are going to tell the shop steward or poll taker:
Obama for sure, then pul the lever for Romney.
Call it the union equiv. of the Bradley factor.
Romney 300+
Wednesday ToDo list:
1. Come and take away all your guns.
2. Transfer lots of federal funds to Planned Parenthood.
3. Force Mead to get a job.
"There are some number of union households that are going to tell the shop steward or poll taker:
Obama for sure, then pul the lever for Romney.
Call it the union equiv. of the Bradley factor.
Romney 300+"
I hope you're right. I believe you're right.
"Wednesday ToDo list:
1. Come and take away all your guns.
2. Transfer lots of federal funds to Planned Parenthood.
3. Force Mead to get a job."
You have to survive number 1 to get a chance at 2 and 3. Good luck with that.
Could Dick Morris be right?!
"Could Dick Morris be right?!"
Yes. Just because a guy likes to suck a little toe doesn't mean he can't call politics correctly . . .
Meh. This is expected in the sense it's what a campaign is expected to say. Axlerod could do much the same, could he not?
No mention of Colorado. If Romney has Colorado as well, it would put him at 267, needing Ohio or Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. I would laugh my ass off if Romney won Pennsylvania but lost Ohio and Wisconsin.
Nonetheless, the activity of both campaigns is consistent with the article, for whatever that is worth.
"You have to survive number 1 to get a chance at 2 and 3. Good luck with that."
Point well taken, but still easier than #3.
File this post under "Grasping at straws". Seen a lot of this from our friends on the right the last few days.
No, Mutaman, it's basic, boring electioneering and both sides do it. Grasping at straws would be announcing a "Secretary Of Business" at 11:59:59 PM.
You were expecting the Romney camp to release internal polling that came to a different conclusion?
From someone who has a line into the Romney campaign:
"NV — Obama needed 80k early/absentee vote lead coming out of Clark County; he has 71k. Romney needs strong turnout in rest of state."
From here:
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/332523/middle-cheese-state-race-48-hours-go
More polls, sorry. I know the previous post expressed a longing for more soul and subjectivity.
Don't worry, there's more than enough subjectivity in your choice of polls to report.
SURPRISE!
I have assumed for a while now that the Romney camp has a top notch, state of the art polling apparatus in place and they have been using it to inform their campaign steps. Romney's very measured tone thru-out the campaign led me to believe this because he has never panicked or shown he was dispirited. That, to me, meant he was getting more favorable poll feedback from his own proprietary polls.
"Don't worry, there's more than enough subjectivity in your choice of polls to report."
Exactly.
"SURPRISE!"
You came to your senses and decided to vote for Romney?
First time reading through my brain inserted a T. I thought he was dieting. I wasn't sure why he would write a note about it but he had my sympathy.
Insides campaign sources say polls are closing and Obama in big trouble.
I visited NV recently and will be surprised if they don't vote for a change in the White House. That is based on my conversations with some residents and workers- they are generally very unhappy campers.
The reason I thought that, Inga, was perhaps you saw this story of CBS holding back information about Obama lying about Benghazi. Damning stuff, I think . . .
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/11/05/Proof-Obama-Refused-to-Call-Benghazi-Terror-CBS-Covered-Up
Garage,
Are you asserting that we all thought McCain was going to win 4 years ago? I voted for him, and I knew he was going to lose.
Apples & Butternut Squash.
I have totally come to terms with a Romney victory. It is just difficult for me to see an Obama path at this point, though I suppose anything is possible. I think a lot of Obama voters have similarly reconciled, however much wailing and gnashing of teeth any Presidential outcome brings.
Dreadfully disappointed, but onward one presses nonetheless.
Campaign has seen “significant” progress in internal polling in the last week, Republican pollster Bill McInturff said Tuesday, with notable strides among rural voters and soft Democrats.
:-)
Anyone who thought Nevada was in play after Harry Reid stole the election is an idiot.
All the conservatives here in deep red Waukesha County were convinced McCain would win, because, you know...Sarah Palin!
--"Could Dick Morris be right?!"--
He did once say Hillary would never be president, so we will see.
Nevada has about 5% Mormons, but they could never overcome Harry. NV didn't vote for Harry's son, tho.
"All the conservatives here in deep red Waukesha County were convinced McCain would win, because, you know...Sarah Palin!"
And Barry's campaign was having the same success then that Romney's campaign is having now. If Barry had the poll numbers and enthusiasm that Romney is experiencing now there is not a liberal who comments here or anyone in the MSM who would not be proclaiming the race over and Barry the winner. That's reason enough to believe Romney has this thing won.
Read Peggy Noonan today.I never thought I would write that.
She senses what is happening. The polls don't.
"All the conservatives here in deep red Waukesha County were convinced McCain would win, because, you know...Sarah Palin!"
No, they were not. They may have really wanted that to happen, but they knew deep inside who was going to win.
I choose to believe Romney is going to win. I don't think there is enough evidence to the contrary, I have seen Republicans outperform the polls election after election, except for 2008, and I know Silver called one election right, but Rasmussen called that same election the closest of the major polling outfits, as well as 2004, so that's one right against two right.
I'm taking time to watch the Five on Fox News. I recommend it to all, especially liberals.
BTW, I thought two weeks in advance, because of Rasmussen, that Obama was going to win in '08.
" 11/5/12 3:36 PM
Blogger garage mahal said...
Insides campaign sources say polls are closing and Obama in big trouble."
Cute. In 2008, I thought McCain would carry 40 states until Lehman Brothers collapsed. Then is was over.
I would never have believed that that many adults would vote for a candidate with no credentials.
The economic panic, for that's what i was, made Republicans radioactive even though the basic cause was Democrat politics.
I think garage is a "soft" democrat.
Agitprop 101
They are not even trying, the lie is so transparent.
Nevada, like my state, New Mexico, has been Californicated. Won't be red for awhile, Nevada due to solid union bulwark, NM because FDR was a democrat. Add in retirees and money from CA and its going to be that way for awhile. There are better places for Republicans to campaign.
"Inga said...
All the conservatives here in deep red Waukesha County were convinced McCain would win, because, you know...Sarah Palin"
Of course this is bullshit.
It remains to be seen whether it is Kool Aide Silver is drinking or he is coining new wisdom, but I think he is basing his ideas on the kind of micro targeting (am I allowed to say that?) and under the radar campaigning that Obama claims to be tops at. If it is working as planned, Obama should be winning without it necessarily showing up in the national polls.
Which is why I am opening the single malt early tomorrow.
Harrogate, I respect that. Even if it turns out that you're wrong and Obama wins, at least you weren't pretending hope was an argument.
The enthusiasm gap is huge, and the polls oversampling of Dems is just a fact. Those point to a Romney win, but I can still see an Obama win. I just can't really explain how. I can see valid explanations for a Romney win, but I have a hard time seeing an Obama win, unless a whole bunch of Obama voters are just keeping their heads down. They are even invisible here in L.A. I've only seen one Obama sign in my whole liberal neighborhood.
"Seen a lot of this from our friends on the right the last few days."
Have you really?
I'm sorry Ohio, but why isn't Romney up by +10 in your state? Aren't you a coal state? And yet you'd give your vote to a president who vowed to necessarily bankrupt the coal industry. And you'd vote for him AGAIN?
Talk about voting against your self interest,
Problem. Typically, losers release "internal polls." Possibly a bad sign. I suppose election eve may be an exeption, in a campaign where there is a perceived need to push back on close but negative swing state public polls, but my reaction was uh oh.
They can just give all those coal miners a squeegee and a bucket and put them to work cleaning solar panels, or a stick with a nail to clean up dead birds around wind turbines. It's all good.
Damn. It looks like garage is right. There's no way McCain's gonna win this election.
"Seeing Red said...
Nevada has about 5% Mormons, but they could never overcome Harry. NV didn't vote for Harry's son, tho."
Harry's a mormon.
harrogate: "Dreadfully disappointed, but onward one presses nonetheless."
Indeed.
We've all been there at one time or another, or multiple times, and/or times yet to come...ugh.
I'll stop now. Even with my sense that Romney will win tomorrow I'm already contemplating 2016.
2016!!!
I kind of agree with Kansas City here about losers releasing internal polls.
Remember all of those electoral college scenarios Dukakis released all day long to keep his supporters spirits up.
Regardless, this election remains up for grabs.
I wanted McCain to win four years ago, but I didn't expect him to win. As a consolation, I never much liked McCain and figured Obama would over reach and give Congress back to the Republicans.
This year I am mildly optimistic that Romney will win.
Curious George: "Harry's a mormon."
Yes, but apparently of the "good mormon" variety whom the left would be loathe to insult.
It's almost as if there are different standards for those on the left and right.
I'll take this "leak" with a grain of salt. "Republican source"? Leaking to the UK daily mail?
Wasn't the Daily Mail the paper that reported Trump's October surprise involved Obama divorce records?
Just saying.
I believe the Romney campaign internals, if we could see them, betoken good things. I'm just not 100% convinced this particular "leak" from a "Republican source" is to be trusted.
I am afraid that this story is the single most discouraging thing I've seen in weeks.
Why in the world would Romney leak this sort of thing if it were true?
This simply reeks of desperation.
garage did make some funny posts.
Generally, never trust "internal polls." Public polls nomraly correct and gut calls are wrong. This could be exception where release of honest internal polls makes sense. Still a cause for worry.
dbp: "I wanted McCain to win four years ago, but I didn't expect him to win."
No one thought McCain would win.
He was never the "happy warrior" unless he was attacking republicans and the republican base and being invited in for kiss ups to the Chris Mathews of the world.
I think that McCain really did believe that the liberals in the media thought highly of him.
Sucker.
The enthusiasm gap is huge, and the polls oversampling of Dems is just a fact
That is not fact. Party ID is a state of mind, not a demographic. Also, early voting totals in swing states dispel the myth there is a huge enthusiasm gap for Democrats.
If there is a large group of independents that identify as Democrats in a survey, you get a large sampling of Democrats. And the percentage of independents supporting a Republican is then high. In every poll showing a large Dem sampling, you see the inverse: a high percentage of [remaining] independents going for Romney. Voila!
"It's almost as if there are different standards for those on the left and right."
Awww, hell no. Say it ain't so.
It is sort of funny how everyone on both sides looks at the polls, and tries to find some - ANY! solace in them.
We will see soon enough who wins. Hope it's my guy. I have a pretty good suspicion we'll survive either way. And I don't really think either guy is capable of delivering the change needed to come to terms with the problems the US faces.
"That is not fact. Party ID is a state of mind, not a demographic. Also, early voting totals in swing states dispel the myth there is a huge enthusiasm gap for Democrats."
Now that is not true. Early voting totals for Dems lag well behind the 2008 totals.
Cosmic Conservative, as I said, I have my doubts this "leak" is from a genuine source with genuine knowledge from the Romney campaign.
It's the UK Daily Mail.
Your best source for celebrity gossip. Not Romney campaign insider info.
Garage, I wouldn't mind having a beer with you, because you seem like a nice guy, but I am still waiting for Walker ("Dubya" stands for Walker too, did you ever think of that?) to be frog marched down to the courthouse in chains with an angry mob with pitchforks and barley flails in close pursuit.
Kansas City: "Still a cause for worry."
I don't think so given the reality of what we are seeing on the ground in terms of increased R early voting turnout and decreased D early voting turnout along with the massive enthusiasm gap that all the polls show.
Even the CNN poll which had a D+11 sample showed Romney winning independents by over 20%.
20%?!
If that is even remotely reflective of reality then Romney will win.
Obama would need a D+10 turnout along with R defections approaching 10% to overcome a 20% independent edge for Romney.
Does anyone really think that is going to happen?
Is there some secret mass volume of votes for obama that is going unrecorded in any of the polls that is going to overcome the independents margin?
Well, we won't have to wait long to find out...although, lets face it, it's going to be agonizing getting to tomorrow nights results.
"We will see soon enough who wins. Hope it's my guy. I have a pretty good suspicion we'll survive either way."
See, this is scary. People actually thinking we can survive if Barry is in power for four more years. It's a disconnect from reality that is simply amazing to behold.
The national polls simply don't matter. All that matters is what happens in a handful of true swing states.
Obama's entire campaign is hanging by the last thread of the firewall he built this summer.
But he built that firewall well. It's hard to reverse in three weeks the lies that an accomplished liar spread about you in six months. Very hard.
TWM, well, to be technical about it, we, at least the vast majority of "we" will "survive".
It's just America that won't survive.
I'd think heavy turnout would be good for the Romster.
Enthusiasm gap and all.
I notice the map the Daily Mail's using cedes PA to the Demos, so we know that ain't happening, so I'm siding with yashu.
Wasn't the Daily Mail the paper that reported Trump's October surprise involved Obama divorce records?
Yes, a lot of time was spent here knocking Trump for using the Obama's marital situation for political purposes. The article was quoting someone who tweeted that he heard it from his garden gnome.
garage: "That is not fact. Party ID is a state of mind, not a demographic. Also, early voting totals in swing states dispel the myth there is a huge enthusiasm gap for Democrats."
LOL
Yes, that's right. Just ignore the 150,000 decrease in dem early votes and the 100,000 increase in R early votes in Ohio.
Lets do some "maths".
Obama defeats McCain by about 262,000 votes in 2008.
262,000
And already obama has "lost" approx 250,000 in early voting alone, which is very dangerous for a dem since dems have traditionally cleaned up in early voting and then have to hold on to their lead when R's flock to the polls in superior numbers on election day.
Full stop.
Unleass the dems suddenly drop in another couple of hundred thousand early votes today, something has deeply and negatively affected the dems this year.
And that would be called "lack of enthusiasm".
It's all going to come down to voter turnout in Ohio. I love that people are going on record with their prognostication. It will be fun to dig them up again in four years like Garage is doing now.
"TWM, well, to be technical about it, we, at least the vast majority of "we" will "survive".
It's just America that won't survive."
I agree, but if I wanted to live in Greece I would have moved there already.
The world without America - and I mean the America before Obama - won't be a very good world to live in.
I think that the turning point was way back when Clinton started financing the debt with short term notes and now we are like Thelma and Louise hitting the brakes or the gas while in mid air, the trajectory is long decided.
Either we keep printing money and cause a crisis or interest rates go up and causes a crisis.
Cosmic: "But he built that firewall well. It's hard to reverse in three weeks the lies that an accomplished liar spread about you in six months. Very hard."
Obama didn't build that firewall over 6 months.
As many dems have noted, in NC, Florida and Ohio the obama campaign from 2008 never "stood down".
Unfortunately for the dems, NC and then Florida have slipped away.
So, what might be Romney's biggest strategic mistake?
Not responding to the obama attacks in Ohio over the summer.
What might be obama's biggest strategic mistake?
Not spending any money attacking Romney in PA and WI which allowed Romney to coast and then "sneak up" on obama in those states.
It would be poetic justice in a way for both campaigns if obama won OH but lost PA and WI.
I will go on record:
Romney will win, but it won't be an electoral blowout by any means. Somewhere between 270 and 280 EVS.
If I'm wrong, I'm buying.
Good comic here re: past trends.
tim in vermont: "Either we keep printing money and cause a crisis or interest rates go up and causes a crisis."
I'm afraid this is probably correct.
We're either going to be Greece or we're going to be the US circa 1981 with Volcker slamming the brakes with monetary policy which will crush inflation but also be very painful.
The possible upside is that, as in the early 80's, Reagan's growth policies allowed us to come out of it in 18 months with some really extraordinary GDP and employment growth.
Either way we are going to pay the piper for our massive debt and easy money actions.
This is awful. Garage made another good point -- and the best point I have seen about democratic over samplying in polls, i.e., it represents republicans identifying themselves as independents and heavy independent vote for Romney shows that to be true. Ouch.
I still think the polls are off and Romney wins. But some troubling signs with release of internals and citing soft factors like crowd size.
I don't understand the big deal about early voting. What difference does it make if a person votes early or on election day? I understand that it eliminates the risk of the person not voting, but is that such a big deal?
I also like Drago's comment that it would be poetic justice if Obama's lies win Ohio but inattention loses Pa and Wisc. GO ROMNEY.
The very best picture I can make ends up with Romney getting 277 electoral votes, and that's by losing Ohio but winning Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire.
Maybe he gets to 278 by picking up one in Maine.
But that's the BEST picture I can paint. Most of the rest of the pictures end up with Obama continuing his Lefist assault on everything that made this country great.
dbp wrote:
I wanted McCain to win four years ago, but I didn't expect him to win. As a consolation, I never much liked McCain and figured Obama would over reach and give Congress back to the Republicans.
I kind of felt the exact same way. I knew the dems would over reach, but my hope ws that we wouldn't actually have to live through it for four years just to prove me right.
And also, the McCain campaign was correct when they said the polls were tightening up. They did in the final week, but he was way behind, and ran a crappy campaign.
Romney remained close, and has done a good job.
No one should be confident.
I swear to all that is holy, I cannot fathom how people cannot simply look at Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama and come away with anything but the blatant realization that Leftist policies are economic suicide.
Clinton became a decent President by pivoting to the center when the country spanked him in '94. Obama just kept grinding the country's face in his policies.
KC: "I don't understand the big deal about early voting. What difference does it make if a person votes early or on election day? I understand that it eliminates the risk of the person not voting, but is that such a big deal?"
Historically, for a number of reasons, more dems vote early than R's and usually by a large #.
Conversely, more R's vote on election day than D's (in key areas).
This has been a recurring pattern for many years and election cycles.
In 2008 obama built up huge margins in early voting in traditional battleground states (like OH and FL) but also in traditionally R states like IN, VA, NC.
On election day, the numbers advantage was so great that the more numerous but depressed R turnout was insufficient to overcome the obama lead.
In every key state obama's huge 2008 early voting advantage has been significantly reduced and, in OH, obama's early voting edge has been erased to the tune of obama's 2008 margin of victory.
That is significant.
Recall that in 2004 Bush defeated Kerry in OH by having a larger than ever (at that time) number of evangelicals and other rural voters who hadn't voted much in the past come out to support him (Bush).
Romney's ground operation in OH has been said to dwarf the Bush 2004 effort.
If that is the case, where does obama get his margin of victory from?
Particularly considering that Cuyahoga county is coming in much "smaller" for obama this year than in 2008?
Remember, we are not talking polls anymore. These are actual voting numbers by party.
I don't understand the big deal about early voting. What difference does it make if a person votes early or on election day? I understand that it eliminates the risk of the person not voting, but is that such a big deal?
As a proxy for enthusiasm. McCain had very little early voting, Obama had lots. Obama has less this year, Romney has much more. I don't think it makes the difference, but it is another factor showing reduced Democratic enthusiasm.
Patrick: "No one should be confident."
You got that right.
Patrick: " I don't think it makes the difference, but it is another factor showing reduced Democratic enthusiasm."
It does make a difference. A huge difference.
But more importantly, it illustrates beyond question the significant reduction in dem enthusiasm.
garage is simply a dead-ender and so he refuses to accept this fact.
To each his own.
Garage: early voting totals in swing states...
...indicate that Democrats are cannibalizing their engaged-voter base ahead of election day, whereas Republicans are targeting infrequent voters and keeping their engaged-voter powder dry.
And someone else upthread pointed out that Dem totals and spreads vs. 2008 are running behind.
When the CNN poll had it 49 - 49 that was assuming the equivalent turnouts of Dems v Reps as 2008. But the general consensus is that Reps are more energized than Dems this time around. I wonder whether Romney's internal polling accepts the 2008 percentages? Anybody know?
My "doesn't make a difference" poorly put. I should have written "won't necessarily make the difference in the vote totals." Clearly, the votes, and the enthusiasm help. I just don't know if the raw numbers would overcome Obama's numbers from '08.
Patrick: "My "doesn't make a difference" poorly put. I should have written "won't necessarily make the difference in the vote totals."
Understood.
But the general consensus is that Reps are more energized than Dems this time around
I've only seen the Rasmussen poll that the electorate is actually more republican than Dem. Many discount him, though, because his polls sometimes show the Democrats not winning.
Here's some soul and subjectivity for you, from Peggy Noonan. And she's right on the money.
http://blogs.wsj.com/peggynoonan/2012/11/05/monday-morning/
ricpic: "When the CNN poll had it 49 - 49 that was assuming the equivalent turnouts of Dems v Reps as 2008."
Actually, the CNN poll assumes a 50% increase in Dem turnout advantage over 2008!! (from D+7 to D+11)
Again, if that were even remotely true obama would be winning by alot.
Even more amazing, in that very same CNN poll Romney is crushing obama with independents by over 20%!
LOL
CNN's poll is complete junk unless the electorate has suddenly decided to become 50% dems, and I don't think that has happened.
Particularly in OH which gave the R's a clean sweep victory in 2010.
Patrick: "I've only seen the Rasmussen poll that the electorate is actually more republican than Dem. Many discount him, though, because his polls sometimes show the Democrats not winning."
Forget the polls.
We have actual early voters turning out to vote now which gives us a real sense of where the race is at.
Obama is making his final campaign tour with Jay-Z and Bruce Springsteen.
Meanwhile, Michelle spends the last day in North Carolina, which Obama wrote off a few weeks ago.
Do you suppose Michelle understands the disrespect inherent in that assignment?
Not to mention the disrespect of an incumbent finishing a Presidential campaign with two entertainment stars.
Damn. Maybe Romney will win.
I call bullshit on any internal polling from Romney's campaign being provided to a UK newspaper "by a Republican party source". I wouldn't even put any credence in it being leaked. The Romney campaign has been far too disciplined to let any compilation of internals or decisions based on them loose.
This is not McCain's crew who were backbiting over the internals before the election was over. I don't detect any desperation coming from the Romney campaign. It's coming from the other campaign.
Misdirection...maybe. Internals actually getting loose...no.
Tim Tebow
@TheTimmyTebow
I'm predicting Obama will take an early lead tomorrow... Until all the Republicans get off work. #RomneyRyan2012
Yes I do realize that I ended my last comment in a preposition.
Deal with it!
It seems to me that if they don't break for Romney - "they" being the undecideds - at this very late date that they're simply not going to go for him.
Yeah, I think Obama's going to win.
That's my view not necessarily what I want.
B, I hope you are right.
I agree about the discipline the Romney campaign has shown. Leaking something like this the day before the election does seem out of character.
I'll cross my fingers and hope it is a bogus report.
When is everyone going on record for Electoral Votes?
I'm officially on record:
Obama 318
Romney 220
Drago, that sort of thing is nonsense up with which I shall not put.
harrogate said...
I have totally come to terms with a Romney victory. It is just difficult for me to see an Obama path at this point, though I suppose anything is possible. I think a lot of Obama voters have similarly reconciled, however much wailing and gnashing of teeth any Presidential outcome brings.
Dreadfully disappointed, but onward one presses nonetheless.
11/5/12 3:48 PM
Honest observation. I felt the same way four years ago. As much as I want a Romney win, as much as I see the 'data' indicating a Romney win it ain't over till the fat lady sings. I have two bottles for tomorrow night ready. The first to celebrate, the second to drown my sorrows. Always have to have a plan B. Probabilities are not certainties and that's why I have the two bottles waiting. It's my way of starting to get reconciled if Obama wins and the economy continues as is or worsens.
As Drago astutely noted a Romney win if it results in a recovery as intended will result ultimately in a 1981 Fed induced recession to wring the inflation out of the economy. Unfortunately for Romney if this plays out the recession will start in the last year of his first term. But he is a big boy and he knows the world of hurt he is going to get if he wins.Still that recession is infinitely better than what Greece is experiencing now and will be for years if not decades to come.
R - 280
O- 258
This is rough. I'll look at a map if I get a chance and then tweak, but that's roughly what I expect.
garage mahal said...
When is everyone going on record for Electoral Votes?
I'm officially on record:
Romney 300+
Obama has just issued a statement to his supporters to "stay calm tomorrow". That seems a bit desperate.
I'm giving Florida and taking North Carolina for that 318.
So Dem turnout is significantly down from 2008, and garage says that "dispels" the enthusiasm gap notion.
But here's the other thing:
Not only is the enthusiasm gap erasing Obama advantage in Dem/GOP splits, but there is significant evidence that 13% of those Dem voters are voting for Romney.
That makes for a GOP landslide.
But, yeah: we have to wait until Tuesday night to see if that is accurate or not.
I'd say, "May the best man win", but we all know that is Romney, so I'll just say that it is truly sad that we won't all be happy when the results of the election are known...one way or another.
Noonan:
And there is Obama, out there seeming tired and wan, showing up through sheer self discipline. A few weeks ago I saw the president and the governor at the Al Smith dinner, and both were beautiful specimens in their white ties and tails, and both worked the dais. But sitting there listening to the jokes and speeches, the archbishop of New York sitting between them, Obama looked like a young challenger—flinty, not so comfortable. He was distracted, and his smiles seemed forced. He looked like a man who’d just seen some bad internal polling. Romney? Expansive, hilarious, self-spoofing, with a few jokes of finely calibrated meanness that were just perfect for the crowd. He looked like a president. He looked like someone who’d just seen good internals.
Of all people, Obama would know if he is in trouble. When it comes to national presidential races, he is a finely tuned political instrument: He read the field perfectly in 2008. He would know if he’s losing now, and it would explain his joylessness on the stump. He is out there doing what he has to to fight the fight. But he’s still trying to fire up the base when he ought to be wooing the center and speaking their calm centrist talk. His crowds haven’t been big. His people have struggled to fill various venues. This must hurt the president after the trememdous, stupendous crowds of ’08. “Voting’s the best revenge”—revenge against who, and for what? This is not a man who feels himself on the verge of a grand victory. His campaign doesn’t seem president-sized. It is small and sad and lost, driven by formidable will and zero joy.
I suspect both Romney and Obama have a sense of what’s coming, and it’s part of why Romney looks so peaceful and Obama so roiled.
I have tried very, very hard, and I cannot see a single trend that is in Obama's favor.
I've asked for someone to point something out that shows sign of Obama's support growing, and no one has supplied a thing.
Not even AF or garage.
Patrick: "Drago, that sort of thing is nonsense up with which I shall not put."
Kindly behoove me no ill behooves.
With apologies to Thomas Wolfe.
Go big or go home:
Romney - 355
Obama - 183
Rationale: the polls are off due to bad polling. Obama was up 5-6 in states like PA, MI, and WI just a week ago according to polls. Now tied.
So shift all current RCP averages 6 points to Romney.
That's what you get when Romney wins independents by 22, takes 13% of the Democrat vote, and has an enthusiasm/turnout advantage not shown in polling.
My map here.
I think I've already made my prediction, but for the record:
Romney: 296 (with an option for 316 with PA)
Obama: 242
Also, just heard -- Romney's recorded a closing message for halftime in Monday Night Football tonight. Smart -- it's probably the only thing people watch without the DVR anymore, so they'll really see the commercials.
Nathan: "Not only is the enthusiasm gap erasing Obama advantage in Dem/GOP splits, but there is significant evidence that 13% of those Dem voters are voting for Romney."
I didn't necessarily want to go there because that 13% of dems who will vote for Romney are election day voters.
What's amazing about that # (if it's true) is that if Romney carries about 94% of the R vote on election day (which is expected due to the level of enthusiasm on the right), wins the independents by 10% or greater (which the polls show) AND takes 13% of self-identified dems on election ALL AFTER erasing obama's 2008 early vote lead, then Romney wins OH with at least 54% of the vote.
It's too good to think about so I'll put it away now and just get back to work.
Every national poll is commissioned in whole or in part by someone who hopes for a specific answer. The pollsters provide a product and tailor it to the customer by weighting party turnout, the questions asked, and even the sequence of questions. The out they have is weighting party turnout. You can be wrong there and survive as a polling outfit.
The only polls that matter are the internal polls. The campaigns cannot afford to act based on a poll commissioned by a network. They pay a lot of money for clear and unbiased data and allocate their resources and run their campaigns accordingly. The campaigns keep the internals very close to the chest and the way to get a feel for them from the outside looking in is to watch how the campaigns are being run. You can bounce that against the external polls, but it's the internals that determine where the resources go.
Romney won this about two weeks ago. The only question at this point is by how much.
Obama has been working the crowds for 2016 in the last two weeks. Not for him, though that's not out of the question, but for the the next in line. The democrats are now campaigning over which camp, the Clintons or the Chicago crew, gets control of the DNC.
BTW, that obama campaign message to dems about keeping calm is not a confidence builder.
http://politicker.com/2012/11/obama-campaign-to-supporters-dont-panic-over-early-exit-polls/
I don't think I've seen anything quite like that before, particularly since exit polls on election day have overstated dem votes by around 5%.
There has been a great deal of discussion about that with some observers saying that as a matter of politics more republicans are likely to refuse to answer exit poll questions than dems.
This was especially notable in 2004 when Bob Shrum (the eleventy-time Presidential race loser) went to Kerry and said "may I be the first to call you Mr. President" early in the evening based solely on exit polls.
Hmmmmmmmmmm.....
In a close election, I don't think either side knows what is coming. I guess you are suggesting that Romney is 3 to 5% up in the "internals?" I doubt it. I think that would leak.
About a week ago, I had it like Cosmic with Romney at 277 winning Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa and New Hamshire (plus Fla, Va and NC). I think that is a pretty easy path to a win, and he would not need both Iowa and NH to get there. Since then, Ohio looks better and Minn, Mich and Pa in the mix (likely losers but perhaps a 1 in 3 chance of getting 1 of them). I would say everybody ought to be ready for a harrowing night. Va could be an early problem or sigh of relief for Romney, and the votes will come in quick.
garage mahal said...
I'm giving Florida and taking North Carolina for that 318.
---
Just out of a morbid curiosity -- what evidence persuades you that North Carolina will be going for President Obama?
Even his campaign has given up there.
Not since September has there been a single poll showing Obama winning North Carolina -- and there have been 14 polls in North Carolina since then by 6 different groups.
"As Drago astutely noted a Romney win if it results in a recovery as intended will result ultimately in a 1981 Fed induced recession to wring the inflation out of the economy. Unfortunately for Romney if this plays out the recession will start in the last year of his first term."
Reagan had the advantage that Carter had appointed Volker and had begun the recovery. Still, Reagan had Dole as Senate majority leader and Dole managed to hold off the recovery until the Republicans had lost the Senate majority in 1982. Thank God Dole is retired to Viagra commercials. Where he belongs.
Still we are not yet into the inflation that hit Carter so hard so Romney has a chance to get things going and start pulling liquidity out of the economy as the economy recovers. It may not require the pain of 1979-82.
If Romney starts to break up giant banks, with Ryan's help and the House writing legislation, I will start to believe that Romney is really in it for the long term. A GOP Senate majority would make it so much easier and a couple of the sensible Dems are retiring so bipartisan policy may be a bridge too far.
I would love to see Schumer try to block bank reform and get beaten in his next election. Is he up in 2014 ? Can't recall.
B: "The democrats are now campaigning over which camp, the Clintons or the Chicago crew, gets control of the DNC."
Not a contest.
It will be the Clintons. Easily.
There is alot of scuttlebutt in the backchannels that the Benghazi scandal is "on hold" simply because it would actually hurt Hillary more than obama since the requests for more security all went thru the State Dept.
If obama wins, the Clintons have positioned themselves as the loyal soldiers for the dems.
Very smart.
If obama loses, the Clintons can say (in a Bill voice): "hey man, not even hillaruh and I could save those chicago losers" and obama will be promptly and unceremoniously placed in "trotsky status" setting up Hillaruh to run against Andrew Cooooomo and perhaps 1 other real dem candidate in 2016 (excluding Biden! LOL)
garage mahal said...
My map here.
Confederacy Denier!
I thought the most significant polling information I saw (don't remember where) was that 13% of Obama's 2008 voters were voting for Romney. If that is true, checkmate. It seems high.
But the premise is valid. Everyone knows Obama will be getting less votes this time and, at 53% last time, he does not have much margin for error (unless his firewall state strategy defies history and holds up against a significant overall electorate defeat.
Peggy Noonan's column was good today.
The public polls could be to this year's election as trees are to a forest, preventing some of us from being able to see the big picture.
http://blogs.wsj.com/peggynoonan/2012/11/05/monday-morning/
Patrick at 4:20: It is sort of funny how everyone on both sides looks at the polls, and tries to find some - ANY! solace in them.
We will see soon enough who wins. Hope it's my guy. I have a pretty good suspicion we'll survive either way. And I don't really think either guy is capable of delivering the change needed to come to terms with the problems the US faces.
True dat. Especially the last part.
I hope whoever wins wins in a decisive manner. I don't want to see this come down to one state. And I certainly don't want to see this come down to recounts.
Patrick at 4:20: It is sort of funny how everyone on both sides looks at the polls, and tries to find some - ANY! solace in them.
Which is why you should only be looking at who has voted, in what numbers, and where.
Those are the only concrete "facts" were are dealing with now.
Michael K: "Reagan had the advantage that Carter had appointed Volker and had begun the recovery. Still, Reagan had Dole as Senate majority leader and Dole managed to hold off the recovery until the Republicans had lost the Senate majority in 1982. Thank God Dole is retired to Viagra commercials. Where he belongs."
So true. Dole's role is not one you hear discussed much...anymore.
Do not write off Obama for 2016. He starts with lots of goodwill (especially if he loses close election) and, with the very heavy African American vote in dem primaries, he probably wins the nomination.
In some dem primary states, he only needs about 20% of the white vote to win a majority of the state.
Good comic here re: past trends.
Saw that a while back. Makes you discount all the 'this has never happened before' stuff.
I am cautiously optimistic on Romney, I don't think the mood is for Obama this time and I think I've felt like we were going to lose every time we have, but there are a lot of people out there who have to vote and we'll know tomorrow.
I sure know it's going to be hard to concentrate on work.
This is all you need to know
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation
No 600 lv survery. 15,000 likely voters polled each month. Fairly Accurate too..
All these polls you see show a D+3 to D+11 turnout. If Rasmussen is anywhere close than this won't be close, at all.
Just out of a morbid curiosity -- what evidence persuades you that North Carolina will be going for President Obama?
Got to go with one upset, right?.
Well run elections, no early voting restrictions.
4.5% higher early voting (overall) than 2008
Blacks 7% higher than 2008
Obama superior field organization.
I saw one skew saying it ought to be R +6. Love to that one be right, but, if the pollsters are going back to D +11 or D +13, then they know it's over and it's Immaculate Reception time.
PS Scroll down for a great map.
"I'm predicting Obama will take an early lead tomorrow... Until all the Republicans get off work."
You mean like Mead? What work would that be?
Meh on Noonan's analysis of the difference in candidates' moods at the Al Smith dinner...personality-wise, Obama would naturally be worn out, and Romney optimistic
My off-the-cuff RCP map, can't get it to copy, 262-276 Romney. I give O PA and R FL. OH, WI, VA likely R.
Inga said...
SURPRISE!
Yeah, it's the word I associate with every time I see your fuck face in a thread.
So sorry to hear the meds aren't working yet Meth, maybe a visit with the shrink for an increased dose?
Electoral College Romney 295/242
National Popular Vote Romney 53/46/1 with a D+1 turnout result and winning "independents" by 13 points.
Take it to the bank!
RiverRat
JR asked why Ohio isn't giving Romney a 10 point advantage.
My answer: google the 2008 election results--or better, 2004--by county. You'll see that Ohio is, geographically, 95 percent red. Just the urban areas go Dem. mainly govt employees, African Americans, union operatives, those who get govt help, and those quaint people who live in cities and where liberalism reigns, and who really think--God bless them-- that the whole country could run that way.
Romney 341
Obama 197
Alternate theory for a inside poll leak...
We claim that Republicans often do better than the polls. If that's true, releasing an internal poll that shows better might make the day *after* the election. Then they can say, "But that's what our own polls always showed."
Also, of course, people are less likely to go to the polls if they get a dose of negativity on Monday night.
Fr Martin Fox, do "those who get government help" include farmers?
Ned Silver (I know, it's Nate) also gave Sharron Angle a 75% of winning, just so you know he's not always a master prognosticator.
Bless your little hearts.
Romney 277 (Wisconsin, Iowa, NH, and Co, but not Ohio).
Obama 261
Romney 51/49.
Kansas City said...In a close election, I don't think either side knows what is coming. I guess you are suggesting that Romney is 3 to 5% up in the "internals?" I doubt it. I think that would leak.
I probably wasn't clear. When I talk about internals, it isn't just polling. Internal polling is a misnomer actually. The campaigns take in a lot of factors beyond their own polls (including taking into account external polls) to come up with the decisions on where to allocate resources. As one example, they look at the demographics of who is attending the rallies in which states and whether that demographic is well represented in external polls. Hell, they post-process video of crowd faces for reactions to sound bites.
If they can react to the dynamics quickly and positively, they project calm and confidence. If they don't see a path to that, you get the sense of flailing and desperation.
I haven't paid attention to the polling. I used too in elections past, but not the last few national elections. I've been watching how the campaigns tailor their messages and how often. Where the campaigns allocate resources. Get a feel for the personalities of the main players and apply that to interpreting how they are responding to the others campaigns. Most especially, take notice of the dog that doesn't bark. And always look for which campaign projects the sense of calm and confidence in the end game.
It's all data and you need to take it all into account. The first debate gave the Romney campaign the sense they could win. Romney's campaign thought they'd win it around the time of the second debate. I think they believe they clinched it around the time of the third. I don't mean that the second and third debates themselves were the determinants. Just those time frames.
You guys love your internal polls! Keep on telling yourselves whatever you need to, you poor dears.
http://swampland.time.com/2008/11/02/mccain-camp-things-are-getting-tight/
So, a Romney aide says that there is a lead and a tie in these states. No polling data released i assume.
Obama with 281 or 290 electoral votes. And the Daily Mail isn't the best source for a lot of things.
I like this pep talk from Instapundit:
My gut says that Romney will win. That’s not scientific, but neither, really, are polls. I got an email the other day from a friend in New York who wanted reassurance. I told him that Michael Barone was predicting a Romney victory, if he wanted reassurance about who would win. But I also offered another kind of reassurance: Regardless of the outcome, it’s a certainty that we’ll have more fun over the next four years than Barack Obama will, and regardless of how the election grows, the Tea Party movement and the popular resistance to Big Government will continue to grow. You can pretty much take that one to the bank.
Especially like that bit about having more fun than Obama will the next four years if he wins. Think Benghazi, for starters.
Especially like that bit about having more fun than Obama will the next four years if he wins.
Yes, well, it is generally more fun to carp from the sidelines than to actually deal with real responsibilities. Just ask any teenager. But everyone needs a hobby and if this is what gets conservatives through the next several years...
I, as least, used that “have more fun” in the sense of not being the one who will have to endure an investigation for the Benghazi debacle, for instance. An investigation that would hardly fall under the rubric of carping.
"
11/5/12 9:10 PM
Blogger leslyn said...
Michael K said, "If Romney starts to break up giant banks, with Ryan's help and the House writing legislation, I will start to believe that Romney is really in it for the long term."
Why on earth would Romney break up the banks? They're his biggest known contributors. Golden Slacks (might as well lump them all under that) love him.
You're just pretending, aren't you?"
Spoken like a low information voter. You really don't know who the bankers have been supporting do you. They have finally realized that Obama was leading us all over a cliff but, if he hadn't insulted them over and over, they might still be part of his team.
regardless of how the election grows, the Tea Party movement and the popular resistance to Big Government will continue to grow. You can pretty much take that one to the bank.
Hah. If Romney wins, the GOP goes back to not giving a damn about deficits. Look for them to find a new name for it, but there will be a spending stimulus.
Hah. If Romney wins, the GOP goes back to not giving a damn about deficits. Look for them to find a new name for it, but there will be a spending stimulus.
This insight is based on what, exactly?
Rusty, there's no way that Romney can cut spending enough to match the defense spending he wants, and he won't raise taxes. So what's left? Expand the deficit.
Here's another take: One Last Chance for Romney Stimulus.
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