Althouse: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire reclassified as "toss up" states...

October 12, 2012

Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire reclassified as "toss up" states...

... at Real Clear Politics.

40 comments:

Anonymous said...: It's the Biden Bounce!; 10/12/12, 11:20 AM
Matt Sablan said...: Awkward.; 10/12/12, 11:30 AM
campy said...: Holder's civil rights division attorneys will save the dems' bacon.; 10/12/12, 11:31 AM
Richard Dolan said...: The polls have become part of each side's narrative; they're not objective data points at all. The RCP approach of averaging them all out is (perhaps) the least bad option. But deep skepticism is in order all around.; 10/12/12, 11:34 AM
theribbonguy said...: Ruh Roh!!

Looks like the "They're lying lying McLiars that lie!!" is going really really well...carry on demos.; 10/12/12, 11:35 AM
Jim said...: Confiscate Sully's belt and shoelaces and put him on 24 hr surveillance.; 10/12/12, 11:35 AM
Matt Sablan said...: I believe Michigan; there were rumors that Obama offices were closing there.; 10/12/12, 11:35 AM
David said...: Except Pennsylvania and Michigan are not tossups. Much more likely they still lean Obama. The union base in Michigan, and Philadelphia in Pennsylvania, are extremely difficult for Republicans to overcome.; 10/12/12, 11:37 AM
ricpic said...: Wow, if a New England state is toss up Barry's in trouble.; 10/12/12, 11:38 AM
Paddy O said...: I noticed Florida is a toss-up on that page. Wasn't there a Romney +7 poll yesterday in Florida?; 10/12/12, 11:39 AM
Brian Brown said...: The union base in Michigan, and Philadelphia in Pennsylvania, are extremely difficult for Republicans to overcome.

You should tell that to the Gov and Sen Toomey.; 10/12/12, 11:40 AM
Tim Wohlford said...: Akin to California, Michigan is a red state once you factor out a few urban counties.

The enthusiasm for Obama was near hysteria in black, urban areas in 2008. Now those areas have been partially depopulated, and definitely despirited.; 10/12/12, 11:40 AM
Matt Sablan said...: Paddy: I think Romney +7 was VA.; 10/12/12, 11:42 AM
Shouting Thomas said...: The Obama campaign is now in full self-destruct mode.

I don't know if they can recover.

Their response to the Benghazi attack was an epic failure that will just continue to pile up against them.

And, they are doubling down on the "liar" and "bigot" tactics.

They simply do not comprehend that they are self-destructing. Or else, they can't help themselves.; 10/12/12, 11:42 AM
mccullough said...: David,

W. did well in Pennsylvania in 2000 and 2004, just as he did in Wisconsin. And both Michigan and Pennsylvania also have Republican governors. W. won N.H. in 2000. None of them are left wing states. Anyway, it doesn't matter much of Romney wins them, it means Obama has to spend time and money there while Romney visits Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa.; 10/12/12, 11:43 AM
Tim said...: The Obama-bubble is bursting.

Who will be the last, bitter clingers?

Doubling down on failure is a losing strategy.

If you don't know who the dumbest voters at the table are, it's you.; 10/12/12, 11:43 AM
Brent said...: Most of the movement towards Romney was from people watching a split screen of Rachel Maddow and Stephanie Cutter.

Ewwwwwwwwwww!; 10/12/12, 11:45 AM
Brian Brown said...: Polls:

Mitt Romney has taken a commanding 7-point lead over President Barack Obama in another Virginia poll.

According to a McLaughlin & Associates poll that had an R+.02 sample, Romney leads Obama in Virginia 51%-44%.

Among independents, Romney beats Obama by 11 points, 50%-39%.

Polls:
The survey conducted this week found 51 percent of likely Florida voters supporting Romney, 44 percent backing Obama and 4 percent undecided. That's a major shift from a month ago when the same poll showed Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent; 10/12/12, 11:46 AM
Shantastik said...: Landslide!; 10/12/12, 11:47 AM
test said...: Don't get over-confident. "Toss up" is within 5 points, and the polls aren't likely to move that much before the election.

Romney's likely-to-win states include Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire. Less likely but conceivable are Wisconsin and Nevada. Unlikely are PA & MI.; 10/12/12, 11:48 AM
Anonymous said...: I think Biden's debate performance was proof the Obama campaign knew this. It was an attempt to froth up the base, not appeal to the center. Romney and Ryan were looking to pick up soft Dems and undecideds.

Frothing up the base worked for them. However, I think they alienated the center, and forced the press to appear more biased than ever as they fall all over themselves fact checking Ryan and propping up Joe.

Ryan and Romney both seemed like reasonable men who would work with Democrats, Obama and Biden seemed childish, dismissive and difficult to work with.; 10/12/12, 11:49 AM
Tim said...: campy said...

"Holder's civil rights division attorneys will save the dems' bacon."

As a logistical matter, I'm guessing the most you can get any Democrat to vote is about four times.

You have to pick them up, in a 12-passenger van (that you rented).

You drive them to their legit precinct, where the cast a legit vote.

40 minutes?

Then you drive them to a neighboring, but not adjacent precinct.

Where they cast an illegitimate vote.

One hour?

So, you can repeat that what, two more times before you have to feed them?

And you've got bathroom and cigarette breaks.

Then, they won't want to do this all day.

So maybe you can run two shifts?

Three, if you're exceptionally industrious (in which case you wouldn't be a Democrat, but for argument's sake, we'll assume that out), or well paid?

This doesn't include absentee ballot fraud, or fraudulent ballot mills in places like Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia, Cleveland, etc.; 10/12/12, 11:51 AM
JimMtnViewCa said...: Followed the link to RCP, doesn't it show WI switching to toss-up status at about the same time as the other 3?; 10/12/12, 11:51 AM
karrde said...: I don't think Michigan has gone for a Repub in the Electoral College since 1988.

The urban (and suburban) Detroit vote has dominated the Presidential results for those elections.

The elections for Governor in Michigan went Repub/Dem/Repub during that time, but they happen in off-years. (Respectively: 1994/1998:Engler, 2002/2006: Granholm, 2010:Snyder).

Don't know what to make of it, though.

I'd be happy to see Michigan in play; it means my vote would be more than symbolic.; 10/12/12, 11:52 AM
rehajm said...: Wasn't there a Romney +7 poll yesterday in Florida?

There was. An outlier for sure, but Rass has a Romney +3 today and ARG has a Romney +2.

Interesting to me- most of the pollsters report party affiliation based on what people say they are, which makes party affiliation a variable and not a demographic. In the Mason Dixon +7 poll, they used actual voter registration 'to match the electorate in Florida.'; 10/12/12, 11:58 AM
Cosmic Conservative said...: Biden's mission last night was to stop Romney's Big Mo. Had Biden failed as spectacularly as Obama did, it would have been disastrous. And had Biden actually been forced to defend the failed record of this administration, it would have been a rout.

But Biden played the fool. Which was the wise choice. Obama will likely do the same, but without the histrionics.

As I have said on other venues:

When you have the winning policy, debate policy.

When you have the winning record, debate record.

When you have the winning character, debate character.

When you have none of the above, call your opponent a liar and play class warfare, race warfare, gender warfare and any other sort of warfare you can.

It's pretty clear where the Democrats have been for the last 40 years or so.; 10/12/12, 12:00 PM
bagoh20 said...: Ahh, my native Pennsylvania. It warms my heart to see the little guy growing up.; 10/12/12, 12:01 PM
rehajm said...: Boston cable stations are running lots of fresh anti-Romney ads for the southern NH market. Somebody in the Dem camp thinks they're losing share there for sure..; 10/12/12, 12:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Obama's demeanor will be interesting next week. He's not going to do well if he is further demoralized by the debate fallout, plunging polls and the Benghazi investigation. I don't think he'll do well as an underdog.; 10/12/12, 12:07 PM
Alex said...: So the last 3.5 week sprint to the finish will feature Obama going all out on:

- class warfare
- race warfare
- gender warfare

non-stop. If he wins despite that, it will be a condemnation on America.; 10/12/12, 12:08 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: You're partially correct, Alex.

Couple that with:

You're a liar [or a bigot] if you dare to disagree with me!

It's a campaign in a death spiral.; 10/12/12, 12:15 PM
campy said...: As a logistical matter, I'm guessing the most you can get any Democrat to vote is about four times.

Those Tammany Hall tactics aren't necessary any more. The new dem fraudsters don't need any actual warm bodies going to the polls. It'll all be done in the counting process.; 10/12/12, 12:23 PM
ad hoc said...: In VA, Kaine (D) is running for senator and his ads are (1) Allen (R) is going to steal your lady parts and (2) he doesn't always agree with the president but is interested in compromise or something like that, then shows a picture of Kaine and (I'm not making this up) George W. Bush. In all fairness, there's a picture of Obama at the end and Kaine states he will work with him too.

Go figure.; 10/12/12, 12:25 PM
Known Unknown said...: Ahh, my native Pennsylvania. It warms my heart to see the little guy growing up.

Outside of John Murtha, Western PA has done a lot better than it's Eastern brethren. It's really 2 states connected by an awful turnpike.; 10/12/12, 12:28 PM
Patrick said...: So Romney could, theoretically win without Ohio. However, if he doesn't win in Ohio, that is a pretty good indicator that he won't win in those other places. He's still got a lot of work, but he can expand the playing field, and that is good.; 10/12/12, 12:44 PM
Known Unknown said...: New Hampshire is the least New-Englandy of the New England states. That's not a surprise. They went for Bush in 2004, I believe.

Live free or die. Sounds cool to me.; 10/12/12, 1:07 PM
edutcher said...: PA has been that way for quite a while now, with the Romster only out by 1 or 2.

As I've been saying for the last few months, any state that flipped governors or legislatures D to R should be considered in play.

David said...

Except Pennsylvania and Michigan are not tossups. Much more likely they still lean Obama. The union base in Michigan, and Philadelphia in Pennsylvania, are extremely difficult for Republicans to overcome.

The unions aren't that big in the Philadelphia area; it's not old Rust Belt like OH or MI, but more gentrified, a lot of professionals - doctors, lawyers, universities, programmers.

The head-busting union goons wore out their welcome in that part of the state 50 years ago.; 10/12/12, 1:19 PM
Blue@9 said...: Still a few weeks to go, so these are meaningless.

I've been saying it for months--the polls don't matter because events will dictate. We don't know if Obama or Romney will totally bomb in the next debate or some freakish war/event will break out halfway around the globe.; 10/12/12, 2:05 PM
Anonymous said...: Obama will defeat Romney in his sleep. The electoral college is over 300 for Obama and he will get over 55% of votes. Romney is finished.

N. Tuesday on 10/16, he will be cremated on live tV.
Bring flowers.; 10/12/12, 7:04 PM
Rusty said...: Tim said...
campy said...

"Holder's civil rights division attorneys will save the dems' bacon."

As a logistical matter, I'm guessing the most you can get any Democrat to vote is about four times.

You have to pick them up, in a 12-passenger van (that you rented).

You drive them to their legit precinct, where the cast a legit vote.

40 minutes?

Then you drive them to a neighboring, but not adjacent precinct.

Where they cast an illegitimate vote.

One hour?

So, you can repeat that what, two more times before you have to feed them?

And you've got bathroom and cigarette breaks.

Then, they won't want to do this all day.

So maybe you can run two shifts?

Three, if you're exceptionally industrious (in which case you wouldn't be a Democrat, but for argument's sake, we'll assume that out), or well paid?

This doesn't include absentee ballot fraud, or fraudulent ballot mills in places like Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia, Cleveland, etc.

Mostly just twice. the old and the homeless are notoriously hard to manage. Hell. It can take the better part of a day just to round up enough homeless to fill a school bus. It's why early voting was invented.
It's far easier to just fill out absentee ballots and drop them off in a bundle. It's how Milwaukee wound up with over 100,000 excess black voters.
It's just better to grab a couple of voting machines from a precinct in a bad neighborhood,(nobody is going to go there and check), and grab you democrat buddies and have a voting party.
You just can't count on a Cook County miracle without a little help.; 10/13/12, 7:09 AM