Rasmussen's poll, conducted yesterday, shows Romney getting a solid boost from Tuesday's primaries. You wouldn't know it reading the (crazy) commentary that bounced off those primaries.
Ah, and now I'm seeing this Rasmussen poll, conducted on the 27th: "54% in Wisconsin Oppose Recall of GOP Governor Walker."
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My takeaway from Michigan, yet again, is that open primaries are ridiculous.
Hey, we get to have a primary here in Ohio next Tuesday that actually means something, for the first time in...forever, I think.
I've been hedging toward Gingrich, but several of you commenters have managed to nudge me toward Romney. I'm actually unsure, even now, which flawed candidate will get my vote.
That's sort of embarrassing. I feel like one of those mushy middle-of-the-road voters who one cycle vote Democrat and the next vote Republican.
The Fat Lady is starting to sing.
Saw that on Ras this morning; all the FUD merchants will have to come up with something new - as soon as Kos figures out what it is.
PS Pasta, know what you mean (but, face it, all candidates are flawed); and Scott is right - the nonsense Tuesday is indicative of that.
That Wisconsin result is pretty close, though. Just within the margin of error on the poll, and I think Rasmussen may tend to skew a few percentage points toward the conservative. At least they did in the 2010 election; their "likely voter" methodology didn't work as well as it has other times.
80% of respondents have a strong opinion, one way or another! A little scary, that. Civil War, anyone?
On the other hand, only Romney and Paul can beat Obama, if Rasmussen and other polls over the past month or 2 can be believed.
The Newt and Santorum both poll way behind Obama in a theoretical Novemember matchup.
One of two candidates who can beat Obama does not seem wanted in the GOP. He would kick over too many ricebowls if elected.
Romney, OTOH, will be pretty much indistinguishable from an Obama second term.
John Henry
So once again conservatives stupidly split there vote thereby allowing the most moderate candidate to win.
SOP.
For me, it's Paul in the WI primary and anyone but Obama in the general.
Unless Santorum is still close to Romney, then it's Romney in the primary and anyone but Obama in the general.
Walker will win the recall. Falk makes it a certainty.
If Scott Walker wins in the recall can we please, please close the door on the 2010 elections? At some point even leftists in Madison are going to have to come to grips with the fact that they LOST then they LOST then they LOST big again. I'm starting to see pattern here!
"That Wisconsin result is pretty close, though. Just within the margin of error on the poll, and I think Rasmussen may tend to skew a few percentage points toward the conservative. At least they did in the 2010 election; their "likely voter" methodology didn't work as well as it has other times. "
The question asked was " A special election will be held to see if voters want to recall Governor Scott Walker and remove him from office. If the special election were held today, would you vote to recall Governor Walker and remove him from office or would you vote against the recall and let him continue to serve as Governor?"
In the real election, it won't be up or down on Walker. It will be Walker or a particular person (e.g., Kathleen Falk). Faced with a real choice, I think Walker will pick up more than 54% of the people who go to the polls.
Meade and I made a bet on the recall election, which we both think Walker will win. I went first, with him able to go over or under. I said "54%," and Meade went under. I laughed. I think I'm going to win the bet.
The bet was placed a few weeks ago.
"For me, it's Paul in the WI primary and anyone but Obama in the general.
Unless Santorum is still close to Romney, then it's Romney in the primary and anyone but Obama in the general"
Ditto.
One can also think the recall election is a waste of time and money, but still be willing to vote against Walker.
Faced with a real choice, I think Walker will pick up more than 54% of the people who go to the polls
Walker didn't break 50% against any potential challenger in the PPP poll. He trailed both Falk and Barrett, and led virtual unknowns by only 1-3 points. What say you? Getting the feeling you didn't like the results of that poll.
"At some point even leftists in Madison are going to have to come to grips with the fact that they LOST then they LOST then they LOST big again."
It's not over 'till they win.
You know, after seeing Hillary! spanked by the very junior Illinois senator for the Dem nod in 08, I'm afraid that if Walker wins this recall, garage is going to end up in a straightjacket.
I mean there is only so much a man can take before he cracks.
The problem with "ABO" is that it is tribal, and all about blind Party loyalty....and while nice at rallies of True Believer Rubes...tends to make for insular thinking.
Meaning who you like or commit to support out of Party boss and activist loyalty is less important than knowledge of how a Rick Santorum, a Bachmann, a Gingrich would fare in the general election.
To call others "mushy middle of the Roaders" may be comforting, but from the outside, it does make the True Believers on the Left or Right look like clueless rubes.
Consider the insistance of loyal Democrat cadres in 2004 that it was "ABB"!
The Dem stalwarts honestly looked people in the face and claimed that people would find Al Sharpton a fine President and all good, true Democrats and union people would support Rev Al should he be the nominee.
To Centrist (re:DINO in Rush Limbaugh parlance) Democrats - as well as Moderates and Independents - that was crazy talk. No way would they vote Rev Al..and that did not make 85% of the general electorate "mushy middle of the roaders".
"The problem with "ABO" is that it is tribal, and all about blind Party loyalty"
For me, it has NOTHING to do with party loyalty. For one, I'm not a republican, but much more to the point, Obama policies are a disaster. Any of the remaining 4 would be a great improvement.
"garbage will wind up in a straightjacket".
Wind up? I think he is in one now but I can't figure out he types his comments.
80% of respondents have a strong opinion, one way or another! A little scary, that. Civil War, anyone?
That struck me too. A lot of energy to waste on a politician.
By the by, althouse, whatever became of that conspiracy you mentioned several months ago?
Mike says, quoting Cedar:
"The problem with "ABO" is that it is tribal, and all about blind Party loyalty"
For me, it has NOTHING to do with party loyalty. For one, I'm not a republican, but much more to the point, Obama policies are a disaster. Any of the remaining 4 would be a great improvement.
____________________
Ditto
"The problem with "ABO" is that it is tribal, and all about blind Party loyalty"
Besides Biden is there anyone in this country who is legally qualified to serve as president worse than Obama? Answer: no. ABBO is the only sane and sensible course of action.
@Cedarford,
Your analogy is imperfect.
President George W Bush is one of the best Presidents this nation has seen. Yet a miserable failure like John Kerry still came closer than he should have because the Left unified around ABB.
Obama is in the bottom 2-3 of Presidents all time. Romney or Santorum are far better candidates than Kerry was, and the VP is going to be someone who excites voters, like Rubio or Christie, rather than a phony like Edwards or a doddering plagiarist like Biden.
It's going to be a landslide loss for Democrats.
Obama up 14 pts. on Romney in Wisconsin. Starting to look like 2008.
Speaking of gifts, it looks like Herb left a big one at the feet of Wisconsin Republicans.
Tammy Baldwin also leads all Republicans from that poll.
According to the poll at the link, Thompson leads Baldwin 50% to 36%. Neumann leads Baldwin 46% to 37% and Fitzgerald leads Baldwin 41% to 40%.
Nathan Alexander said...
@Cedarford,
Your analogy is imperfect.
President George W Bush is one of the best Presidents this nation has seen. Yet a miserable failure like John Kerry still came closer than he should have because the Left unified around ABB
=============
That is not how the rest of the country sees "The American Churchill, Dubya". They see him as a fiscally and militarily reckless fuck up that left exploding messes from Iraq to Wall Street for others to clean up.
Even in 2004, the general consensus was he deserved to be a one-term President - and Democrats snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
For what its worth, I think that Bush is above Carter and Obama as a President, but in the bottom 3 for the last 100 years of office-holders.
I see Obama is asking the military to pay more towards their healthcare. Isn't that what Walker did to the teachers?
BarrySanders20 at 12:18: If there's one thing I know about you, Barry, it's that you could go sharply left or sharply right, and no one will be able to predict which way you'll go til you're 5 yards down the field.
Walker didn't break 50% against any potential challenger in the PPP poll.
But isn't a comparison between today's poll and yesterday's an apples and oranges comparison.
In the PPP poll, it was a beauty contest between Walker and various Democrats (most of them not running.) You leaped from that to find support for the recall. But that question wasn't asked. (Or if it was, PPP didn't publish the answer.)
The Rasmussen poll asks the only meaningful question at this point. Do you want to recall the governor? is not the same question as who do you like, Walker or X?
John said...
Romney, OTOH, will be pretty much indistinguishable from an Obama second term.
Do you really believe that? Really? Let me suggest, then, that you shouldn't bother to vote.
@John Stodder
Welcome back!
Stodder
I didn't leap to anything. I merely posted the poll results to refute the assertion by Althouse that all the Dem candidates are weak in comparison to Walker. There are definitely people that don't like the recall, people that don't even like or support walker. I've talked with them. The PPP poll showed that.
Looks to be a nail biter, what I always kind of thought all along.
AJ Lynch said...
I see Obama is asking the military to pay more towards their healthcare. Isn't that what Walker did to the teachers?
3/1/12 2:36 PM
How about Obama asking the same for civilian public sector employees and the rest of the moocher class.
According to the RNC, of the 383 convention delegates allocated so far, 118 are Mitt Romney’s, 29 are Newt Gingrich’s, 17 are Rick Santorum’s, 8 are Ron Paul’s, and 211 are unbound.
… and its a long, long way to Tipperary.
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