Althouse: "Generic Republican Candidate 46%, Obama 42%."

June 29, 2011

"Generic Republican Candidate 46%, Obama 42%."

Says Rasmussen.

Fortunately for Obama, the Republicans will have to settle on a specific Republican.

50 comments:

JAL said...: Apparently *any* Republican would do.; 6/29/11, 6:21 PM
The Drill SGT said...: On the other hand, the public keeps learning more about specific GOP possibles and the Generic tally increases rather than softens.

Ultimately, a second term involves a 2 step process.

1. Does the incumbent deseerve a second term yes/no
2. If no, does the alternative scare me too much yes/no

O'bama is failing the first test badly. Too many folks say, no matter what, O'bama won't get their vote. The cap on his potential vote is pretty low already. his best hope is getting 45% in a three way race with some Liberatarian or tea partier in the mix.

absent that, he needs to make the GOP candidate very very scary. Therefore, with all his money, expect a hugely ugly campaign by O'bama and his MSM.; 6/29/11, 6:31 PM
Phil 314 said...: Like the brand but not the specific product.

Only one solution; 6/29/11, 6:31 PM
MadisonMan said...: expect a hugely ugly campaign

Isn't that the default?; 6/29/11, 6:44 PM
BJM said...: Apparently, as in 2008, Obama's re-election depends on the media's willingness to give him a total pass and ability to destroy the opposition.

Can they pull the hat trick off again now that the voters know it's an illusion?; 6/29/11, 6:48 PM
Anonymous said...: I think the Tom Bradley effect is back in business. Obama loses by 10 to anyone but Palin, to whom he loses by 5.; 6/29/11, 6:49 PM
I'm Full of Soup said...: Obama is toast. You heard it here second since Seven Machos has been predicting it for weeks now.; 6/29/11, 7:01 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: Well, you're a racist if you don't vote for Obama.

Let's see how far that goes.; 6/29/11, 7:04 PM
Carol_Herman said...: The best show ever put on at a presidential convention happened in Chicago. In 1968.

As to the republican convention, ahead ... there will be so many candidates ... there won't even be seating for delegates.

While, since I saw, Sarah Palin's bus, I've been pretty sure she's investing in an Independent run.

This is something that made the 1992 way more exciting than just about any other. (Except for 1980. When Reagan, for reasons unknown, was considered a long shot.)

Meanwhile, if obama don't win, will he at least leave in January 2013?

Back, in 1981, Jimmy Carter tried to stick around. But since then super glue's been invented.

Where can Obama glue himself ... so that he doesn't have to leave the building?

Would his tongue to the portico column do?; 6/29/11, 7:13 PM
Carol_Herman said...: PS: I wasn't around to see Lincoln's takeover of the republican nomination back in 1860. But I heard it was a doozy.; 6/29/11, 7:14 PM
Carol_Herman said...: BJM. I think we can discount the media, now.

Abrahamson tried the media route. Didn't work for her at all.

Chris Wallace, of course, can repeat asking "are you a flake," not just to candidates ... but people willing to go out and vote, too.

I stake my flag on the media not amounting to much more than a hill of beans. Consumed in Blazing Saddles.

Well, my mom said "you're gonna have to get energy from somewhere."

Isn't it funny that "going nuclear" doesn't mean the same thing to democraps as it does to just about everybody else in our universe?

Maybe, obama will be able to call on oracles. So, instead of voting, we will just read the stars. And, an astrologist will tell us who wins?; 6/29/11, 7:18 PM
Seeing Red said...: Unfortunately for the rest of us.

Via Instapundit:

From the White House, National Journal’s Marc Ambinder reports that Obama believes he can get the Republicans to cave on taxes if he first lets the bond markets panic in late-July. Obama then hopes that Wall Street and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce will force Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, to compromise, like he did on the FY 2011 budget deal earlier this year.

Outside the White House, more and more prominent Democrats are questioning whether the debt limit is even constitutional. Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., became the latest Democrat to raise the argument yesterday. If there is no debt deal, and bond markets do panic, what is stopping Obama from just ordering Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner to issue more debt? If Obama can just ignore the War Powers Act, why not the debt limit too?; 6/29/11, 7:21 PM
Bruce Hayden said...: I can see the MSM wing of the DNC scaring people with Palin, Bachmann, Cain, and Paul, but not really the rest of the pack. Ok, maybe Romney's underwear or all his kids and grandkids.

One thing that the Republicans may have going for them this time around is that their pro-life stands aren't going to be that blatant. They may walk the walk like Palin and Bachmann, but they are unlikely to be doing much talking the talk. Rather, likely whomever is nominated on the R side is going to be going after Obamanomics, Obamacare, etc.; 6/29/11, 7:26 PM
edutcher said...: That gap seems to be widening by the week.

Be interesting to see what happens if some names that aren't usually touted are put in contention. With 4 or 5 more months before the drop-dead filing deadlines, if the numbers continue to sour, some more people sitting on the sidelines may jump in (and I'm not thinking just of Rick Perry).

Carol_Herman said...

PS: I wasn't around to see Lincoln's takeover of the republican nomination back in 1860. But I heard it was a doozy.

Somebody else who counted Quincy Adams as a founding father.; 6/29/11, 7:36 PM
Carol_Herman said...: If Boehner compromises he's dead.

He's aware that he could lose his leadership. Which he almost lost for crying.

Now, let's say Boehner "tries" to "go along with a lifting of the debt ceiling."

You know, like an alcoholic with a glass of wine, swearing he's only have one more for the road.

Except that Boehner's terrified of the road.

And, most of the republicans are terrified of the Tea Party. In an election year ... one out of four ... that brings out the multitudes.

Not that he couldn't shed his clothes ... and run naked ... daring other republicans as he shouts out over his shoulder ... I'll leave the office only if you can catch me.

Oh, yeah. And, obama's gonna super glue his tongue to a portico column ... trying to halt January 2013's inauguration.

The future however usually looks fuzzy when I try making predictions.; 6/29/11, 7:37 PM
Carol_Herman said...: edutcher, you just made that up!

I said that John Quincy Adams ... son of John Adams ... was ... like his father ... just a one-termer.

I also said that Henry Clay went from being the powerful speaker of the house ... where he manipulated it so that Andrew Jacksons MAJORITY WIN ... in 1824 ... got toppled ... With a box of electoral ballots ... brought in from the swamps of Florida.

After that? Henry Clay couldn't get elected dog catcher.

Abraham Lincoln, in 1860, jumped ship. From the WHIGS. To the republican party. Lincoln competed with "3 favorite sons" ... But Lincoln had a NATIONAL reputation.

On the first night the crowd almost picked Seward. But the ballots hadn't come in from the printers, yet.

You know, edutcher, you should keep your deficits of history to yourself.; 6/29/11, 7:41 PM
Kev said...: (the other kev)

But fortunately for the Republicans, Obama is still Obama.

Another year and he'll be trailing any of the potential nominees except Ron Paul.; 6/29/11, 7:41 PM
Hagar said...: and a little off topic,

I am beginning to think that what would be best in the long run, is for the (liberal) Democratic Party to be thoroughly discredited for a long time, decades, and 4 more years of Obama should just about do that.; 6/29/11, 7:43 PM
Carol_Herman said...: Kev, If Obama ends up "trailing" ... where's Hillary?

Why aren't people considering, too, that all these early candidates are gonna work themselves out?

Except Hillary.; 6/29/11, 7:46 PM
SteveR said...: While the Republicans are fully capable of putting another John McCain up, no Republican can make my mother-in-law vote for Obama again. How big a percentage of his 2008 total that attitude represents, I don't know but its not small.; 6/29/11, 7:54 PM
Toad Trend said...: I'd like to think that the biggest mistake made by the American people in decades, the election of the junior senator from Chicago, a former 'community organizer' and apparent magician in terms of erasing his tracks, will not happen again. This election is the republicans' to lose.

It is imperative that any opposition in the next election, whether it be a democrat challenger for the nomination or the republican nominee, force the destroyer-in-chief to run on his pathetic 'record' of race baiting, demagoguery, class warfare, 'shovel-ready' policy and economic sabotage.

In other words, draw parallels to how Zero brought Chicago street politics to Washington.; 6/29/11, 7:57 PM
Anonymous said...: Unfortunately for daPrez, by Nov 2012, there won't be a single registered voter, who cares to vote and goes through the horrific and unfair burden of getting a government-issued 15-lb 4-cu-ft ID card and carrying the blasted boat-anchor to the polls, who will be enthusiastic about voting for him. Even Miss Ann here will hold her nose in disgust, and go home and take a shower afterwards.

Which means inevitably, he's a loser and a goner. Because he won't have the two necessary and sufficient conditions for a winning campaign: an enthusiastic and fired-up base, that convinces the wishy-washy rationally ignorant independents to join their winning team.

There's only one person out there who can do that right now. And, is more "qualified" than Barry the lazy adjunct ever was.

"The [old Parties are] breaking, it has already begun. [S]he will try to take the [brass] ring, you know of whom I speak"; 6/29/11, 7:57 PM
Bruce Hayden said...: Except that Boehner's terrified of the road.

And, most of the republicans are terrified of the Tea Party. In an election year ... one out of four ... that brings out the multitudes.

Carol has a good point there. We just lived through that in the House with Patent Reform. Everyone thought that it was a done deal, with the Senate bill. The USPTO was going to get to keep all the money they collected and they were going to be able to set whatever fees that they wanted to. And, then the Tea Party intervened. Progress came to a screeching halt, and stalled for a week just short of the rules committee that sets floor rules. The big guns were hauled out against Patent Reform: Rush, Beck, and even Heritage. Then, the proponents of the bill caved, and that language was yanked out. The bill hit the floor, and passed with about a 2/1 margin. And, everyone pretty much knows that the Senate, despite a 95-5 passage of their version is going to have to go along with the House.

Boehner seemed to favor the Tea Party side, along with the Budget and Appropriations committee chairs, with Cantor backing Judiciary Committee chair Smith. Cantor and Smith lost big time.

I see this as strong indication that the Tea Party has an awful lot of sway on the Republican side of the aisle in the House. Probably more than any other power group.

The Senate, of course, is different. Orin Hatch, despite being in the cross-hairs of the tea party, and coming from a state that last election dumped the incumbent, is running for his 19th or so term, with little regard for the Tea Party. He carried water for the proponents of Patent Reform, and as ranking member on the Judiciary Committee, had almost as much influence on passing the legislation as did Leahy, the committee chair. He seems to think that being pro-choice and pro-2nd Amdt. is going to be sufficient in a year and a half to get him that 19th or so term. I think he may be underestimating the Tea Party opposition. We shall see.; 6/29/11, 8:00 PM
Anonymous said...: Except that Orrin Hatch has been for 30 years one of the go-along, get-along Senators that have beggared our country. He will not be returned, he can make no case for it, the Utah Tea Party will crush his traitorous a**.

A Republican should know better!; 6/29/11, 8:08 PM
edutcher said...: Carol_Herman said...

edutcher, you just made that up!

'Fraid not, hon. Saw it on a blog yesterday - if I'd known I was going to have to come up with it, I'd have copied the URL.

If anyone else remembers seeing it, please put it up.; 6/29/11, 8:21 PM
mccullough said...: Since the knock on Pawlenty is that he's a bit dull, maybe he's the perfect generic Republican candidate.; 6/29/11, 8:22 PM
kimsch said...: Earlier today on Fox News, Gretchen Carlson was interviewing someone from the old Clinton team about this poll. He said that this Rasmussen poll is an outlier and doesn't reflect reality. Gretchen said that Rasmussen is generally thought of as being accurate, no? and the guy said "that was in 2008, not anymore."

The results don't mesh with his worldview so they're wrong. Period. End of story.

wv: radexcyc; 6/29/11, 8:26 PM
Anonymous said...: This will not matter. The NPR, NYT, PBS, HuffPost, Daily Beast, Andrew Sullivan, Daily Kos, Ezra Journ"o"list Klein, etc. are doing what is necessary to share to the voters how bad the GOP are.

Basically by next year, every voter will think GOP is a foolish party.

America will vote Obama/Biden again. It is over for the GOP.

Save your money. Save your energy. If you really want to do something in politics, emigrate to another country - like UK or France. In America, the GOP cannot do anything. Nothing. No vision. No deliverables. No diversity. No nothing.

Obama rules! in 2008 and in 2012.

NB: My K-street peers are totally uncaring of the GOP; they have no chance to win even one state in 2012. That is, how confident we are.; 6/29/11, 8:28 PM
AllenS said...: Hard to believe that 42% of the people asked, would be willing to vote for obama.; 6/29/11, 8:28 PM
Toad Trend said...: @America's Politico

You are full of shit and a freaking liar.

Go to hell, crackpot.; 6/29/11, 8:30 PM
Revenant said...: edutcher, if you're talking about this article, there's nothing in there about Lincoln supporting the JQA remark. Just the "founders fought against slavery" remark.; 6/29/11, 8:30 PM
JohnJ said...: Wait a minute!

Didn't Meade virtually concede the 2012 race to Obama just two short months ago after the bin Laden rubout?; 6/29/11, 8:41 PM
Anonymous said...: Yah, K-Street Irregular, I really enjoy your multi-level humor. Don't stop now, give us some more. That's good stuff.
After you eliminate the [obvious], whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.; 6/29/11, 8:51 PM
sorepaw said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 6/29/11, 8:55 PM
Anonymous said...: Even the Osama effect has turned to dross. The mil/intel guys just leaked that the serious jihadis considered OBL to be the starkers old uncle locked away in the attic who thinks he's Napoleon. Why? Because he was a coward who wouldn't join the fight, but instead hid out with the wives and kids.

I would bet the only guy in the WH who gets it, is CoS Daley. The true believers still think their s*** don't stink, and they'll waft their way to a 2nd term because they're so freaking studly smart. Yowza.; 6/29/11, 9:07 PM
edutcher said...: Revenant said...

edutcher, if you're talking about this article, there's nothing in there about Lincoln supporting the JQA remark. Just the "founders fought against slavery" remark.

No, this was in a blog someplace, but thanks for looking. I did see that piece from Weekly Standard while I was trying to find the URL.

FWIW, the piece said Lincoln recognized that Quincy Adams, acting as secretary to his father on some occasions, was "present at the creation" and viewed him as part of that generation.

Not the way we would construe it, but it did include a quote to that effect and, yes, I was surprised by it, too.

As I say, if anyone can find the URL, pass it along.; 6/29/11, 9:13 PM
Anonymous said...: Don't Tread 2012:

A piece of advice: Save your soul. Join us, in the Democratic Party Spin Machine. Together we will tell the world that GOP is a bad party, a very, very bad party.

This is how we will make sure no state goes for the GOP in 2012.

Come, join us. Save yourself.

NB: If you join us, then you will find that K-street people eat in luxury restaurants. We are rich, as we are gaining due to the GOP being a bad party. More contributions are coming to us every second. We even have White House Chef bringing in money in grocery bags...Won't you join us?; 6/29/11, 9:26 PM
Carol_Herman said...: Stop! Really stop! Just because obama won doesn't mean he wins, again.

Jimmy Carter won. On the stupid play made by the republican party in 1976.

Did he win in 1980? Hello.

Was there an inside attempt to stop Ronald Reagan? You bet there was!

But we can't see the future! We're entitled, however, to have a place to check our expectations.

And, I expect Hillary, if obama, without his coattails, is also shorn of any ability to win "by any means" ...

Which could mean hillary will attack obama with a birth certificate! This wouldn't be hard. Because it never was in hawaii. Or kenya. It was right there in Washington State.

Maybe, the Vatican has a copy? They used to run homes for unwed mothers like nobody's business! And, they hid birth records with alacrity. So that lawyers could sell babies to infertile couples. Who didn't know what they were getting into.

Business was very, very profitable.

And, so far?

Obama does not, and never had, a legitimate birth certificate strapped to his forehead.

I also know JFK had no idea he'd get shot in Dallas. Maybe, he was told the bullet was meant for Lyndon?

We never did find out the truth.

But in 2012 ... if you think you're not gonna see a whole assortment of dirty tricks ... then you've never participated in, or watched, American presidential politics.

How much is Soros willing to spend?

Will Sarah run as an Independent, or not?

Will many in the media commit suicide because they can no longer "pick the candidate?"

Will Romney fight? Or fizzle?

Will McCain think he's entitled to another chance?

It all doesn't amount to a hill of beans.

Politics can change on a dime.

While Obama's been going downhill since he attacked the Cambridge cop with the claim that the cop was "acting stupidly" when he cuffed his friend Gates. Slapping around a harvahd credential then. And, slapping around the same stinking credential in the future, too.

Oh, yeah. 1968 won't be repeated. Because the democraps are going down south. Which they think is better than being in Chicago.

Will you tune in the conventions? Or will you be content with watching how things develop on the Internet?

Will fights break out at either convention? Fisticuffs? Or whips?

Will hillary be looking to unseat obama. Would she be satisfied if the only upset she can get is Biden's seat?

Would hillary accept the veep's slot? Why not? It didn't keep LBJ out of the white house, ya know?

Given how bad McCain would have been. And, the damage to the repubilcan party ...

No matter what ... obama's the democrap's tornado.

Blacks? You're worried about people in ghettos going out and voting for obama? Why? You think the black community is still excited obama won? REALLY?

Me? I just bet more people are wide awake and paying attention.

I don't think Dubya will be an applause line, ahead, either.

I think real money will look for a real candidate who can win. (At least one side will do this.) The other? Watch hillary. Mean old coot. Never did like obama much.

If Barnum were alive, he'd be selling tickets.; 6/29/11, 9:57 PM
edutcher said...: Have to agree with Carol on one thing.

Little Zero better be watching his six regarding the Ozark Mafia. They have a score to settle and they'll wait till the best possible time to settle it.

Kenya birth cert?

Health records with something compromising?

Academic transcripts showing he never went to Columbia (or something)?

A signed check from Tony Rezko?

Or a note with marching orders from Dr Evil?

Whatever it could be, it may give new meaning to October Surprise.; 6/29/11, 10:16 PM
Mick said...: Obama will be challenged on his ineligibility (not a natural born Citizen, since he was born British, of a British subject father), and will not make it through the primaries,; 6/30/11, 5:26 AM
Mick said...: MINOR v. HAPPERSETT, 88 U.S. 162 (1874)

“At common-law, with the nomenclature of which the framers of the Constitution were familiar, it was never doubted that all children born in a country of parents who were its citizens became themselves, upon their birth, citizens also. These were natives, or natural-born citizens, as distinguished from aliens or foreigners.”

http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/cgi-bin/getcase.pl?court=US&vol=88&invol=162

Ineligible!!!!!!!!

http://naturalborncitizen.wordpress.com/2011/06/24/minor-v-happersett-is-binding-precedent-as-to-the-constitutional-definition-of-a-natural-born-citizen/; 6/30/11, 5:37 AM
Bill said...: It's absolutely hilarious to follow the polling logic most of the commenters on this website use:

Poll favoring a Democrat? Liberal, biased poll that's obviously inaccurate.

Poll favoring a Republican? Obviously a factual poll that accurately represents the American public.; 6/30/11, 6:36 AM
The Dude said...: Ren, still looking for your stimpy, I see? I think America's Politiho might be interested, he is rich, his "girlfriend" dumped him. You both love Obama, a huge federal deficit and state control of everything. I think it could be a match made in heaven. Oh yeah, and you are both delusional leftists - what could possibly go wrong?; 6/30/11, 7:20 AM
Bill said...: Sixty,
I don't know what you're talking about, but I'm not talking about Obama, the deficit, or anything else. I'm simply talking about the logic all the commenters on this website use. Obviously, you are no different.

Everything I said is true. If the poll shows a Democrat in the lead, it's bogus and wrong. If it shows the Republican, it's correct. I think it's hilarious.; 6/30/11, 8:25 AM
Bruce Rheinstein said...: "Generic Republican Candidate 46%, Obama 42%."

That's good news for Romney, but how did the other GOP contenders poll?; 6/30/11, 8:32 AM
Scott M said...: I haven't seen mentioned much since yesterday's pressor, the fact that the President is lambasting Congress for doing nothing on this debt problem, but he himself walked away from the commission (the one HE set up) and it's recommendations. His party didn't pass a budget for two years, and yet HE laments a lack of leadership.

Stunning.; 6/30/11, 8:44 AM
Scott M said...: I'm simply talking about the logic all the commenters on this website use.

When you make all-inclusive statements like that, you make it extremely easy to ignore you.; 6/30/11, 8:45 AM
bagoh20 said...: Americas Politico:

"America will vote Obama/Biden again."

Just let that sink in for a minute. Yea, that's why it won't happen.; 6/30/11, 9:33 AM
Anonymous said...: America's Politico wrote:

This will not matter. The NPR, NYT, PBS, HuffPost, Daily Beast, Andrew Sullivan, Daily Kos, Ezra Journ"o"list Klein, etc. are doing what is necessary to share to the voters how bad the GOP are.

Well, that part of his comment is accurate.

You know, a lot can happen in a year, as the thief said about his proposal to teach the king's horse to sing. I can think of half a dozen scenarios that aren't being discussed at all right now that could easily put a spanner in the works. Some of those scenarios are rather ugly.

And always remember: Obama is a Chicago politician.; 6/30/11, 12:06 PM
sorepaw said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 6/30/11, 3:44 PM