At the link, you can scan the list to find the counties that haven't reported all their precincts and see which candidate is favored in the precincts that have reported. For example, Ashland has 6 precinct that haven't reported, but in the 22 that have reported, Kloppenburg did much better than Prosser, 71% to 29%. If you assume the precincts are equal in population and the 71-29% split remains intact, Kloppenburg should decrease Prosser's lead by 405 votes when Ashland comes in.
There's one more precinct in Madison's Dane County. You can try to calculate what that precinct should be, using the 73-27% difference between the candidates in the 248 precincts that have reported, but I'd like to know what part of town the nonreporting precinct is in. More important, I'd like to know why that one precinct hasn't reported, because, without more, I'm suspicious that politicos with a "by any means necessary" attitude are waiting to see how many votes are needed.
What security do we have that these votes are being handled properly? With the vote so close, and the number needed to close the gap right there for all to see, it's hard to believe that nobody's going to cheat.
This race has been so politicized that, whether Prosser or Kloppenburg wins, the public will lack faith in the work of the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Every 4-3 decision — assuming the winner of this election is one of the 4 — will raise suspicion. The power of the court, in the end, rests on the faith of the people. It cannot balance the power of the other branches of government without the faith that this election has eroded.
This is why I think a Kloppenburg victory will be a disaster. Her supporters and her opponents expect her to vote to undo the legislation of the Republican majority that won decisively in the November election. If she proceeds to decide cases that way, people — including her supporters — won't believe that her vote was properly judicial, and the decision against the legislation will look like the court abused its power. How then will the court retain its prestige? If the people do not believe that the court is a court, then we will not have a workable system of separated powers in our state government.
UPDATE: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports:
As of 9:45 this morning, the Associated Press had results for all but 7 of the state's 3,630 precincts and Kloppenburg had taken a 140 vote lead after Prosser had been ahead most of the night by less than 1,000 votes.
That close margin had political insiders from both sides talking about the possibility of a recount, which Wisconsin has avoided in statewide races in recent decades. Any recount could be followed by lawsuits - litigation that potentially would be decided by the high court.
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257 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 257 of 257"Yeah, we Republicans just call them bitches. It's so much more polite."
Yea, being impolite and calling for murder are equivalent.
See how ridiculous and unfair you have to be to defend your side. Doesn't that bother you at all?
It's important to note there is not a single blogger on the right who things the left will not steal this election.
I'm right of center and what I believe is irrelevant. What is demonstrated to be true is what's important. I'm not into conspiracy theories.
Link for reporting voter fraud in Wisconsin.
To be more specific, my spreadsheet - based on Wisconsin demographics - indicates that Kloppenburg received approximately 265,000 fraudulent votes.
If my spreadsheet is wrong, then at least half of Wisconsin voters - including entry-level and/or employees of private, minimum wage establishments - have volunteered to fully fund (pay out of their own, minimum-wage pockets) state worker's health insurance and retirement benefits, despite the fact that said state workers are paid at a rate 63% higher than employees of McDonald's, Starbucks, WalMart, Target, Piggly Wiggly, Whole foods, etc..
sane_voter
Thanks for posting the West Allis Walker percentages.
It's a very sad outcome!
Perhaps, there's 20,000 votes that were outright stolen, and stuffed into ballot boxes.
But at least 300,000 people voted for Kloppenberg! As Hugh Hewitt wrote back in 2004. People have to vote in enough numbers to cancel out the democrat's FRAUD.
When Al Franken won, obviously not enough people were enthused with his opponent.
Pick better candidates!
Will a cloud hang over this whole thing? Or is "grandma" Shirley well liked?
Maybe, David Prosser can write a book?
"Yea, being impolite and calling for murder are equivalent."
Who is Kloppenburg planning to kill?
If I was David Prosser, I'd take a nice long piss right in the middle of the Capitol building and then walk out of that backward-ass State for the last time. Plenty of nice places to live in where he won't be mauled or threatened by violent mobs.
Former law student said:
"Kloppenburg refused to distance herself from those supporters
"Just like W. refused to distance himself from the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth."
Well, what the Swift Boat Veterans said was true, whereas what is being insinuated about Kloppenberg would be a breach of judicial ethics. But apart from that, good analogy.
Ann, I am a lawyer, went to UW, had you for Federal Jurisdiction and generally like a lot of your blog (even though sometimes you seem contrary for it's own sake.)
Therefore, it is disappointing to me when you take the view of suspicion without any evidence. The fact is we don't know the reason the precincts haven't reported. It could be a large number of reasons some legitimate, some not.
But to go right to "suspicion" and suspecting mischief, feeds our worst instincts and is unbecoming for lawyers. It is also unfair to those precincts where good, honest people are volunteering and doing their best and there is some legitimate problem. Lawyers are trained to rely on evidence; your judgment and character are lowered in my eyes when you do this.
Question - is there anything other than a Prosser victory that will convince people that the election was decided fairly?
All these allegations of fraud are being tossed around without a shred of evidence, and no understanding of how elections are actually conducted in WI.
In an election this close -- a few hundred out of millions cast -- any exercise of discretion by election officials can affect the outcome (and there are a lot of Republican election officials all over the state). But the notion that boxes of ballots will be "found" in car trunks or basements is absurd.
Wisconsin uses paper ballots almost everywhere in the state, and most wards use an optiscan system known to be the most reliable and accurate of all the different types of voting equipment.
It's going to be close, and undoubtedly ugly. But not fraudulent, unless you've already made up your mind.
Ken Mayer
Department of Political Science
UW Madison
former law student
One of those vets was-
Bud Day.
Have you ever looked up his bio?
Let's just say this when Gore could only get one fresh out of law school lawyer to challenge the military absentee ballots in Okaloosa county and then chartered a plane from Atlanta to get those lawyers to do the dirty work-
Bud Day was there for us.
Look up his bio....
Bud Day is well respected in Fort Walton Beach- and there is a damn good reason for that.
He's earned it.
I hope there were surveillance cameras in the ballot room last night. The GOP should have had their rep in there too.
No one will believe in this result. The Dems always manage to "find" missing votes, don't they?
This morning at 12:15 A.M., Marathon County released preliminary break down by precinct. At that time 108 of 140 precincts were reporting. All of the non-reporting precincts were wards in the City of Wausau. Curious. As someone pointed out elsewhere, this morning all precincts in Milwaukee were counted for the County Executive position, won by a Democrat, but 4 precincts were still uncounted for the Supreme Court contest.
Absolutely, the TEA party peoples need to take the lists of who voted and compare them to driver license lists, to addresses. Walk the precincts and see where these people live. Those who moved years ago, but were still registered in Wisconsin should not have voted. Send fraudulent voters to jail. Send their enablers to jail.
PWS is opposed to justice (aka whatever Althouse says).
Obviously a Soros plant.
Against Kerry there is no comparison.
Some people get that right away.
Now granted the number is fewer and fewer these days.
BDU: another Soros plant.
And, speaking of fraud, that Stalin quote is an urban legend.
As an outsider looking in several thoughts
-Why is it surprising that the electorate can vary in terms of candidate/party preferences within a year? This doesn't necessarily mean that if he were up for re-election now Walker would lose nor does it mean that someone/something suppressed "the will of the people."
-the clear message of this judicial campaign that "I will vote this way on this case" is deeply concerning. The left should not rejoice in that precident.
-I assume a "loss" in the judiciary simply means this bill was not passed under correct circumstances AND the bill can be passed again. If Walker and the Wisc senate are firm in their convictions then they should be able to pass it again.
-The "rightness" of the bill (i.e. balancing the benefits of public workers with the private sector) shouldn't be confused with popular support. Isn't it possible that Wisconsinites like Walker's politics in general but don't support this bill in particular. We know the public is concerned about our national debt but also is mixed at best when it comes to cutting specific programs. And when you discuss SS cuts, the public isn't particularly supportive.
Final comment:
Where are the Tea Partiers in Wisconsin? They've seemingly not risen to the occasion.
The pattern throughout the night has been that the raw vote totals have been somewhat out of synch with indications of which wards have reported. Because of that, it's nearly impossible to make a reliable guess at the ultimate outcome.
This isn't lost, yet, but I'm cautiously pessimistic.
It's going to be close, and undoubtedly ugly. But not fraudulent, unless you've already made up your mind.
Actually, it will be fraudulent or not completely independently from whether people have made up their minds.
"It's going to be close, and undoubtedly ugly. But not fraudulent, unless you've already made up your mind."
Assuming there is no fraud going on, is also an assumption based on no evidence, and I doubt you really believe that based on what we've seen people willing to do in the very recent and distant past when it's this important, or even when it's not.
The only reasonable questions are: did it make a difference, and why don't we care enough to eliminate the doubt?
One of those vets was-
Bud Day.
Have you ever looked up his bio?
I see Day, an Air Force pilot, was a prisoner of war the entire time Kerry served on Swift boats.
Question - is there anything other than a Prosser victory that will convince people that the election was decided fairly?
No.
Wisconsin demographics, and the November election, do not support a Kloppenburg victory. Period.
No, we don't want Prosser to rule improperly for Walker or other center-right people and causes. We expect him to rule correctly.
This means that if the Republicans or Democrats properly pass a law, that an activist judge will not kill it. The left wants Kloppy ni there to become a super legislator and kill bills that have been properly passed.
It's the win at any cost mentality.
Mad,
Thanks. This is my favorite blog and doing this type of election digging is one of the few ways I can give back.
Re: Almost Ali
QED
Where are the Tea Partiers in Wisconsin? They've seemingly not risen to the occasion.
I think they did. That the election was this close was an indicator to me.
@FLS:
Why not just tattoo our SSNs on our forearms? Or, better yet, barcodes.
As usual, pretend there is no middle ground.
What's wrong with state IDs, FLS? You've never given a reason. Why is a state ID such a massive violation of civil rights?
But of course all poll workers know all registered voters by sight, don't they FLS, and so fraud is imposssible.
Phil 3:14 said...
Final comment:
Where are the Tea Partiers in Wisconsin? They've seemingly not risen to the occasion.
Are you looking at the Supreme Court votes, as I am? The union and socialists were beating their drums hard to get their vote out, and the best they could do was a squeaky tie. The unions were pretty close to all in on this, and the Prosser supporters were disorganized. Hopefully the Senate recall elections will be better organized for all those who believe in truth, justice and the American way of life. Considering how well organized the union side was on this one, for them to be more organized will be really difficult.
Wisconsin uses paper ballots almost everywhere in the state, and most wards use an optiscan system known to be the most reliable and accurate of all the different types of voting equipment.
It's going to be close, and undoubtedly ugly. But not fraudulent, unless you've already made up your mind.
Dear Ken,
Didn't more than 15 democrats get convicted of election fraud in Milwaukee just last year?
cubanbob, the problem with ATM polling is the same problem Scott Adams identified with internet voting (and, I might add, early voting and postal voting): They make it easier to vote. The current system discriminates against stupid people (who may be unable to find the right polling place) and lazy people (who won't bother looking), and that is salutary. I've said it many times before: the optimal situation is "everyone is well-informed, intelligent, and votes." The next best situation is not "everyone votes."
Badger Down Under said...
"Question - is there anything other than a Prosser victory that will convince people that the election was decided fairly?"
A Prosser victory will convince people on the left that the election was not decided fairly, so it's probably accurate to say that there is no outcome that will convince everyone that the election was decided fairly. Elections have a "goldilocks zone": when a candidate wins more than 90% or less than 52%, people on the losing side suspect fraud.
(Personally, I think the whole enterprise is unfair from the outset, because no ballots should have been cast. Judges should not be elected—period.)
PWS said...
"It is also unfair to those precincts where good, honest people are volunteering and doing their best and there is some legitimate problem."
I question the existence of such people. People volunteer (or work below their pay grade, as with most federal judges) because they derive non-monetary benefit, so you want to ask yourself "what is the non-monetary benefit that this poll worker derives from their position?" And if that person is in other walks of life a strong partisan for one party, you probaby have your answer.
@Pogo: There was a time when your 11:33 post would have sounded extreme. Today, not so much.
Here's another big lie about corporate donations exposed. I'm recalling all the hot air from the Madison protesters about "corporate interests" controlling politics with their money.
However this turns out there can be no determination that the anti Walker hysteria has a clear mandate. Given the timing and implication of this election, a very narrow victory should not discourage the efforts that Walker started.
fls wrote: Just like W. refused to distance himself from the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.
Yes. And John Kerry was in Cambodia on Nixon's orders before Nixon was president.
And he ferried a CIA operative, on a mission nobody else remembers, past an American blockade into Cambodia and kept his hat (in his briefcase) to prove it. And he was seriously wounded - "purple heart wounded" - even though the treating physician covered the wound with a band-aid and refused to request the medal. Etc., etc.
One of your problems, fls, is you don't know the difference between "denied" and "disproved." Kerry denied. He didn't disprove.
Why don't you give this anti-Swiftboat lefty mythology a rest?
The Election Integrity Task Force charged 20 people with vote fraud, but all of the cases involved felons voting, two cases of double voting, and registration fraud. This kind of thing is much more difficult to commit now, with the statewide voter registration list.
People may look at this and think it's evidence of systematic fraud, but in fact it's exceedingly rare (20 instances out of 3 million votes?). There is no human system that will be 100% secure. But I wonder how one can look at a state with a Republican Governor, a Republican legislature, 1 Republican Senator, and a 5-3 GOP congressional delegation and see evidence that Democrats are stealing elections.
But that's not what people are talking about here - the claim is that election officials will rig the count. There's no evidence that that has occurred, or will occur.
I ask this question in all seriousness: are we perhaps better off without government?
One precinct left in Jefferson and Klop is up by 235 votes. The two Milwaukee precincts were empty.
Wisconsin demographics, and the November election, do not support a Kloppenburg victory. Period.
Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Badger Down Under said...
"I wonder how one can look at a state with a Republican Governor, a Republican legislature, 1 Republican Senator, and a 5-3 GOP congressional delegation and see evidence that Democrats are stealing elections."
In statewide elections, it depends to an extent on whether the need to rig was anticipated, and to a great extent on what the margin is. You can only rig it so far, and if you don't see it coming, you won't get off the starting blocks. So, take Walker, for example: My recollection is that the Democrats didn't seriously expect him to win, and even if they had, his margin was more than 50,000. It's difficult to stuff ballots on that kind of scale. Your error is assuming that the only kind of possible fraud is massive and pervasive fraud—banana republic stuff. But it doesn't work that way. The kind of fraud that can go undetected does nothing more than give an election a subtle nudge, and when the election is close, it's not difficult to imagine that nudge making the difference. It isn't hard to imagine a hundred fraudulent ballots statewide. That makes no difference when the winner's margin is fifty thousand, but it can make all the difference when the winner's margin is fifty.
But I wonder how one can look at a state with a Republican Governor, a Republican legislature, 1 Republican Senator, and a 5-3 GOP congressional delegation and see evidence that Democrats are stealing elections.
"If it's not close, they can't steal it." Hugh Hewitt
Sofa King said...
"I ask this question in all seriousness: are we perhaps better off without government?"
We're better off not electing judges as if they were politicians. The federal model is right: Executive nominates and Senate confirms to a single and non-renewable (but lengthy) term.
People may look at this and think it's evidence of systematic fraud, but in fact it's exceedingly rare (20 instances out of 3 million votes?).
Are you assuming a 100% clearance rate?
P.S. I remember taking your American Presidency class back in, I think, 1999. You seemed like a fair guy.
MadisonMan, do you happen to know who will oversee the recount? I do and it ain't Mary Poppins.
Hint #1: Her favorite intern was Kloppenburg.
Hint #2: She hates Prosser, with a passion.
Hint #3: She hangs out at the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
"The power of the court, in the end, rests on the faith of the people."
Nonsense.
It rests on the power of the police.
"If she proceeds to decide cases that way, people — including her supporters — won't believe that her vote was properly judicial"
Her supporters don't care. You think they do, but they don't. They're ends-oriented. That's why they luuurve the Malcom-X Quote, even while considering themselves "deontological" (for those who are smart enough to know what "deontological" means - I don't include their Vote Banks in the underclass, alzheimers-riddled nursing homes who are "guided" to which block to check, people with dementia who are "encouraged" to check the right block, un-citizens, people whose local address is the Greyhound Station, and the dead, who are also beyond caring but all of whom are enfranchized by Wiscon's voter registration laws, invented and implemented by these deontological progressives).
>Kloppenburg refused to distance herself from those supporters
Just like W. refused to distance himself from the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.
Why should he have? They told the truth, after all. They were there, and reported what they saw; Bush wasn't there and had no reason to doubt their word.
"This race has been so politicized..."
Uh, Ann? It's an election. It was politicized when SC justices were chosen by election.
Elections are inherently political.
I heard Union and Badger cab were giving free rides to the polling places. I'm curious about that.
But the good news is Kloppenberg might finally get her chance to render her 1st judicial decision. Gotta start somewhere.
It cannot balance the power of the other branches of government without the faith that this election has eroded.
Oh, bullshit. Stinking, steaming bullshit. Where were you when Butler was turned out bby that shill and hack Gabelman and the millions in lying ads?
Where were you when Gabelman refused to recuse himself?
You have descended into political hackery, Ann. Any time a non-conservative wins, it's the end of the world.
If Prosser won, you'd be applauding the democratic process.
Kloppenburg forces were way way outspent and made it up with citizen to citizen campaigning so that we could have a check on a lawless Governor and Legislature.
You. A Law professor!
"This race has been so politicized that, whether Prosser or Kloppenburg wins, the public will lack faith in the work of the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Every 4-3 decision — assuming the winner of this election is one of the 4 — will raise suspicion. The power of the court, in the end, rests on the faith of the people. It cannot balance the power of the other branches of government without the faith that this election has eroded."
Could you please direct me to such a post that you wrote in Dec 2000?
gabriel wrote:
What's wrong with state IDs, FLS? You've never given a reason. Why is a state ID such a massive violation of civil rights?
I tangled with fls over that very issue a while back. Backtype is down right now or I'd give you the cite. His response had something to do with his forefathers never having to do so. He completely skirted the fraud issue.
As in every close election lately, they'll keep counting until the Democrat wins.
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