October 31, 2010
Let's talk about Joe Lieberman.
It seems to me that the Senate is likely to end up 50-50. Did you notice California is considered a toss-up now? But that 50 for the Democrats assumes the inclusion of Joe Lieberman, who's an independent. Why wouldn't he switch to the Republicans?
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I'm a Republican, I really like Lieberman, and I think he just doesn't fit in with the GOP. He's too far left on too many domestic issues.
I could only see Lieberman caucusing with the Repubs if some foreign affairs issue flared involving terrorism and/or Israel.
I think he won't switch because he's a democrat at heart. But with Joe you never know for sure. If it's 50-50 we will see a lot of Joe Biden, eh?
The NYT says that CA is going for Boxer (http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate). I am confident that CA and WA are already with Democrats. I expect the same to happen in NV, IL, and WI. The democrats will have 54, counting Leiberman, on Tues, after voting closes.
Because he is Joe Lieberman.
I think it is more likely someone not having been talked about yet, will switch. Joe Biden must be hard to take, even for Democrats.
Because he's a Jew.
Most recent Field Poll puts Boxer eight points ahead.
Lieberman voted for health care reform. Do you think he's going to change his mind? What would be his rationale?
Lieberman is moderate enough that he can win Connecticut as an independent promising to caucus with the Democrats.
Connecticut is blue enough that he wouldn't win as a Republican or an independent caucusing with the Republicans.
So he won't switch unless he is planning to retire, and even then I don't see what switching would gain him.
Joe is a good man. He's an old-school Dem, and if the rest were like him, we would be a better nation, respect our government more, and the world would be a safer place.
I wonder who he thinks of when he needs a friend. I bet it's situational.
He might switch if Obama throws caution to the wind and decides to do what he wants to do with Israel.
Specificly if Israel bombs Iran to end their nuclear program, you Obama is going to go after them big time.
He has planned it out already. It's called "Operation Cedarford."
Lieberman has friends on the right side of the aisle because he gets the War on Terror and he's an honorable man. His stand on social issues, as mesquito notes, is way to the left, sad to say.
America's Politico said...
The NYT says that CA is going for Boxer (http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate). I am confident that CA and WA are already with Democrats.
As noted before, Rasmussen has Rossi ahead in WA, along with 5 more Senate tossups, and Fiorina within striking distance.
if Obama throws caution to the wind and decides to do what he wants to do with Israel.
Troop is a NYC provincial. If he lived in Chicago, he'd realize Obama loves Israel. He wouldn't be best buddies with the Crowns (concrete, defense) and the Pritzkers (miniconglomerate, credit scoring) otherwise.
But it's a parental kind of love. He'll say, "Hey, you're acting like a putz," when it's appropriate.
Aside from Israel and Foreign Policy meant to serve Israel, and certain US cultural issues his Jewish Orthodox faith has problems with - he's far Left. All he is is John McCain and Rudy's "special friend" - and who are Rudy and McCain anymore?
Ben Nelson,. Jim Webb, Kay Hagan, Mark Begich, John Tester, Mary Landrieu are more likely.
But if it looks like the Fundies and Religious Right are going to try and turn the Senate into a southern revival meeting if Republicans get control - they might just see the Maine ladies and Scott Brown crossing the aisle
the other way.
Edutcher, you may want to listen to NPR right now. They are sharing how bad the GOP are. Also, Rasmussen is my competitor. I have a COI to comment on his results. My results are - scientific polling -
House (224) and Senate (54).
Reid/Feingold/Alexi will win. Boxer and Murray have won already - above the margin of error.
I am good. I am very good. I expect to be invited for the 2012 re-election planning, which will start on Wed, by the White House. I am on cloud 9.
Hey fls, is that the "some of his best friends are Jewish" response?
That's weak dude.
And if it is a paternal kind of love well it is a César Rodriguez kind of love.
To be really NYC provincial.
California will likely:
1) Elect Jerry Brown Governor again
2) Boxer again
3) Not vote down a global warming law expected to kill 1 million CA jobs, raise costs on everything in the state, while doing absolutely nothing about pollution but increase it in China which is also on this planet and upwind.
4) Vote to make it easier for the state assembly to raise taxes.
5) 6) 7) ...
My state is entirely brain dead. If pot gets legalized here, I intend to toke myself into oblivion and accomplish the first pot overdose. When I achieve a condition of total wasted confusion, I will still be the smartest human in the state.
California may be the last place on earth where socialism dies. I suggest you all come see us, before we are extinct. Please leave something in the tip jar that we all now carry around our necks for survival.
He won't caucus with the Republicans, except for Foreign Policy issues.
If he lived in Chicago, he'd realize Obama loves Israel.
Like Obama "loves" gays?
With friend like these...
I just started using the Google Chrome browser. It's nice and fast. It seems to work better with blogger, naturally.
FLS - "Troop is a NYC provincial. If he lived in Chicago, he'd realize Obama loves Israel. He wouldn't be best buddies with the Crowns (concrete, defense) and the Pritzkers (miniconglomerate, credit scoring) otherwise."
His billionaire Jewish mentors that provided he and his wife their cushy jobs don't care about Israel as much as Jewish progressivism. Aside from the head Jew of the Crown Family, they are all Hard Left, with SDS backgrounds, etc. Another big booster is the Klutznik Family, that also did the one generation shift from favoring Zionism to advancing socialism.
Michelle and Barak are their sort of "special folks".
--------------------
Trooper - "Specificly if Israel bombs Iran to end their nuclear program, you Obama is going to go after them big time."
Israel can't take out the Iranians. They just lack the conventional air power and global logistics. Their only hope is to drag America into it's 3rd major war. A war they start and presume America will then have to do 95% of the fighting, dying, and funding to finish it.
It still may happen, but only if Israel gets needed regional allies. Meaning it has to get a "Yes" from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the Emirates. They would be involved in a 2nd Gulf War. The US will not be Israel's manipulated tool, again.
If Israel goes unilaterally, expect an oil embargo and Israel to be throttled back hard - along with full Hez and Hamas attacks - before the US steps in and bails out our burdenous "friend", yet again.
The Republicans ought to caucus with the independents, rather than vice versa.
Lieberman differs from the Republican Party on most issues. I don't see him joining up.
Why wouldn't Lieberman switch to the Republicans? Maybe cause he's a Democrat? He's all that remains of the Scoop Jackson wing of that party.
Lieberman should do whatever he wants to do. He has earned it. I would not be surprised if he joins up with McCain and Scot Brown to throw the GOP into Senate Chairman's positions. Lieberman cannot have any mercy left in his heart for the DemonRats that tried so hard to destroy him. I thought of C-4 this weekend when we attended a large Halloween Costume party held at a Country Club in north Georgia among members that were all seemed 50+ in age. All was good fun, but one tall man wore with pride a complete German Waffen SS officer's uniform like that GOP Ohio Congressional Candidate. He was a something of a center of attention...but I felt a sickening revulsion his the public display of the Regalia of evil mass murderers. Halloween is not an excuse for that.
1. sense of honor
2. some shred of human decency
3. weak immune system
4. allergic to rodents
5. doesn't lie 100% of the time...
list is endless
Aside from the head Jew of the Crown Family, they are all Hard Left, with SDS backgrounds, etc.
Dude, they're all business people. Bankers. One runs the company that makes the ubiquitous webbed belt connector. One is a retired National Guard colonel. The Klutzncks developed regional shopping centers. Name one ex-radical.
Why would he switch to a party that wouldn't tolerate him as the VP choice of its presidential candidate?
If it's 50-50 or even 52-48, you'll see a lot of democrats up for reelection in 2012 suddenly discover their inner moderate. You won't see many 50-50 votes.
RCP is making the mistake of calling close races toss ups, when they are just going to be close. I'm sticking with Nate Silver's forecast for the Senate. I expect to see some volatility in the House -- that is, I won't be surprised to see Nate get some House calls incorrect.
I'm pretty sure Johnson takes Wisconsin. But California and Washington will retain the incumbent Democrats.
WV could go the the GOP, and the Dems will control the Senate with CA and WA.
It won't be 50-50. And if the Dems have 51, it won't matter if Lieberman goes to the GOP, as Biden will cast the deciding vote.
"Why wouldn't Lieberman switch to the Republicans?"
Because he's a Jew.
They won't let him.
@New "Hussein" Ham, I'm sorry you're not within arms reach of me just now. I know plenty of Jewish Republicans, and, frankly, your comment just above, like the one you made at 3:42 are seriously beyond the pale.
Because he's a Jew.
What is Arlen Specter? Chopped liver?
Jeeez. Where's Ezra Klien when you need him?
What is Arlen Specter? Chopped liver?
After Joe Sestak got through with him, yup. He surely is.
Unless something unforeseen happens to make the country love Obama again, I think the Senate is going to be effectively Republican. Who is going to brave the tsumani after seeing the destruction of their party come Tuesday?
If the Democrats are as unpopular two years from now as they are today, then the GOP will take the Senate.
The seats up for election in 2012 break down like this:
Dem: 19
GOP: 10
Ind: 2
And 2 (WV and NY) will be filled on Tuesday.
I would expect the GOP to hold all of their seats. The Dems will probably face 7 or 8 competitive races.
PatCA, losing the House in a midterm election does not count as "the destruction of their party."
Feingold's loss may haunt some of the Senate Democrats, but not too much.
If the Democrats lose the Senate and the House, and gubernatorial races in Blue states such as Minnesota and Oregon, then you've got a case.
Why doesn't Liebermann switch to being a republican? Because he isn't a republican and he isn't a conservative. He is neither of things. What he is, is an expedient political animal.
Lieberman is the leading Senate proponent of cap and trade. He supported Obamacare without any special deals. Both Paul Krugman and David Broder have predicted that O will bail out the economy and his presidency by going to war with Iran because going to war with Japan and Germany worked out for FDR. Taking out Iran's nukes is Israel's highest priority because it is a matter of survival.
Where then is the rationale for Lieberman to quit Obama? If anything, when the rest of the Democrats abandon Obama to save their own hides, Lieberman will be a caucus of one.
Not going to happen, I have liberal friends here in CT that just hate his guts but that doesn't stop Joe from voting with the Dems every time it counts. Heck, we couldn't even get a vote against the healthcare abomination, Hartford is home to a considerable number of insurance companies.
Krugman and Broder are smoking weed if they think war with Iran is going to lift the economy.
Bomb Iran, and the price of oil goes through the roof. And that spells economic ruin.
Peter,
When you add in all the new Republican governors and the retirements of old Dems, the coming redistricting, I think you can make a case for destruction--at least until the Repubs blow it. But I don't think they will this time.
I kind of doubt it. Lieberman isn't Specter, and even if he were, there's been a lot of illustration this year about how little voters love expedient turncoats, Specter and Parker Griffith of Alabama being notable negative examples.
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