I'm surprised how few voters are undecided (or for someone other the major party candidates): only 4.4%. But maybe people are shiftable, and claiming to be undecided just isn't as cool as it used to be. Maybe I should stop doing it! Ha ha. But I am undecided. I insist that the candidates woo me until the bitter end.
Now, an interesting thing is that the August 29-30 poll showed 8.3% undecided, which means that the conventions (or whatever else may have happened in the last few days) pushed 3.9% to take a position. If we were to assume that the change in the numbers represented only people moving out of the "others/not sure" category, then 2.6% went to McCain/Palin, and 1.3% went to Obama/Biden.
Another interesting thing is that the polls come out different if you ask the question using only the names of the presidential candidates, with McCain at 48.8% and Obama at 45.7% (and "others/not sure" at 5.5%). So it seems that Palin helps McCain much more than Biden helps Obama.
Zogby analyzes:
Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party. The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits. On the other hand, Palin is not helping with likely voting women who are not aligned with either political party. The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama. Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be "values" voters who like a good value for their money.Fascinating. It's the men who are going for Palin and women aren't buying it? Can we still accuse men of sexism -- if they're fine with women candidates, even excited about them, so long as they support traditional family values? Meanwhile, the women voters stay put and are not swayed by the mere sex of the candidate. I'm trying to speculate about which sex does better at analyzing the candidates without taking gender into account. You could say it's the women, because Palin didn't move them, but they may be taking Palin's sex into account and rejecting her because she isn't hewing to the usual women's rights issues or because they are discriminating against her because of sex. And you could say the men are being gender-neutral and what they like about Palin is not her sex but her good, old-fashioned conservatism.
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60 comments:
"But maybe people are shiftable, and claiming to be undecided just isn't as cool as it used to be."
I think it is more that this election has provided a more stark choice than usual. The only ones who should be undecided, IMO, are the ones who (like me) aren't really sure which approach is right, and also have not had one of their hot-buttons pressed (unlike me with genuine-ness).
"I insist that the candidates woo me until the bitter end."
I would do that too, if I could. But I cannot stand to listen to them.
Hmmm--more stuff on polling--it is impressionistic but not particularly relevant inasmuch as each state determines electors. Polls are atmospherics and nothing more. And Zogby, as do most pollers, depend on subscriptions to keep them going.
I am a McCain supporter, but simply dont put a lot of credence into polling data this early.
"I insist that the candidates woo me until the bitter end."
As every cruel diva must.
"I am a McCain supporter, but simply dont put a lot of credence into polling data this early."
This isn't early. This is late.
Anyone who's ever read a Louis L'Amour novel knows that men have an ideal in mind for the perfect woman, and Sarah Palin is that woman personified.
At least Jacksonian men, anyway. I can't speak for effete sophisticates, but the mass of rural men (the bitterclingers, you might call them) know a real woman when they see one, and treat her as an equal.
Men are more Republican generally. The real question is whether Palin is pulling in more men than were favoring McCain before.
Palin's anti-gay, anti-choice, big-spending GOP wooing isn't working for me. Fortunately, I'm not programmed by my gonads to vote for a woman. No, not just any woman will do.
I'm with Beth. I'm not a slave to my gonads.
The woman I vote for has to be openly lesbian.
There is a difference between feminism and strong womanism.
I never bought the chatter that McCain picked Palin to sway the Hillary voters.
He picked her the motivate the true conservatives who have never trusted him and to motivate White men to vote for a very attractive, strong, gutsy woman.
I knew plenty of women would hate her. Women often hate the kind of women men love. So what else is new.
Ya but this is Zogby-
please...
I don't think Zogby takes Zogby seriously..
Yikes this is an internet "interactive" poll where the group is self-selecting.
Zogby claiming a margin of error of just +/- 2.1% is malpractice.
To draw any conclusions based on this crap is an exercise in fuility.
Assuming it's true that it's men, not women, who are enthusiastically embracing Sarah Palin, why is it?
Althouse, in pondering likely explainations why men are more enthusiastic misses a few poll question answers:
1. Men belive she is a MILF, soon to be a GILF, and a possible VPILF. And she likely looks good in shorts.
2. If Cindy McCain was the Grand Prize in the Lottery of every roaming eye military men's "upgrading" to a better gal - rich, connected to people that could make a political career, sweet, sexually adventurous, intelligent, and an ex-USC cheerleader - Sarah Palin is male proof that women can have a sucessful career and still be a traditional housewife with none of that female whining, nagging, feminist bitching dragged along as baggage.
A husband's dream.
Wife nags. Answer: "You don't hear Sarah Palin complaining about that." Wife fumes, but goes away. Man opens beer. Life is good.
PS - Women shrug off their propensity to vote for the "cuter" male candidate..the one with silky hair, beaming smile, taller, even the "Obambi cuddlesome effect". So no double standards or outrage please on men preferring a hottie as candidate, especially a fecund one who agrees with her Pastor that the man should have final word in certain family matters.
He picked her the motivate the true conservatives who have never trusted him
Interesting so what about Palin shores him up in this area?
If you're honest it's the Pro-Life position and it's rather pathetic that the only way he can reassure them after a TWENTY FIVE year Pro-Life voting record is to pick Palin.
That's really raising the bar on the litmus test.
One reason men may like her is that she doesn’t seem blame them, as a group, for the problems that women have. That is actually very refreshing
Secondly, and related to the first, she doesn’t have distain for the things men more traditionally like. For example - sports and hunting.
But, all seriousness aside… When it comes down to it, if there was a zombie outbreak, who would rather have watching your back? Obama or Palin?
What jdeeripper says.
I am amazed with the ferocity that my liberal female colleagues attack Palin. When I point out Hillary's dead body beneath the Obamabus, they go "huh"?
Women are Dems first.
Women tend to hate other women who make them feel inadequate. In fact, women tend to hate other women, err period.
Since Oprah has chosen Obama, women who can't think for themselves have to vote for Obama. Both are the called The Big O. Coincidence, I think not.
Women tend to hate other women who make them feel inadequate. In fact, women tend to hate other women, err period
Or, women see a far right Dobson anti choice zealot and who doesn't represent them on womens issue in the slightest? In other words, Palin didn't move any women from where they were before Palin was selected.
Pundit Joe pointed out potential Zombie outbreak. Good point - had not thought of that. LOL.
"Palin's anti-gay, anti-choice, big-spending GOP wooing isn't working for me."
How is she any more anti-gay than Obama? The two parties seem to have basically the same position on gay marriage. I'm interested to know if Palin, aside from her personal beliefs, has actually pursued an "anti-gay" agenda that is significantly different from the Democratic candidates or other Republicans.
And, again, "choice" is being used as a euphemism for "killing one's child" or "abortion". I'm not going to accept the political word "choice", just as I don't accept the use of the term "family values" as a euphemism for "anti-gay". If you mean she's anti-abortion, then say so.
The big spending part I don't understand either, at least as a specific reference to Palin. How is she a big spender?
But I am undecided. I insist that the candidates woo me until the bitter end.
CHEERING!
I can't go with any of your poll alternatives, Prof. A.
I personally think that the gender gap here will flatten out and perhaps even reverse itself as Gov. Palin becomes better known.
Right now, I believe there are quite a few women who are of moderate views, probably including at least slight pro-choice politics, who haven't yet learned anything more about Gov. Palin than the basic facts the MSM and Obama campaign have been pounding: She's pro-life, pro-life, pro-life, she has a baby with Down syndrom, she's religious. That makes them nervous.
As we get closer to the election, many of them will learn that despite her personal views, Gov. Palin has not governed in Alaska as a hard-right zealot.
They'll also have more and more opportunities to decide for themselves about her genuineness.
Just as Obama's support among blacks and Hillary's support among women grew throughout the Democratic primaries, so too do I think some number of women will come to be drawn to Gov. Palin because of her gender and the historic opportunity to put a woman a heartbeat from the presidency. I'm not saying that's how they ought to make up their minds, nor am I saying that all or even most women will vote based just on gender identity politics. But some will, and probably enough will that, in combination with more factual information and longer exposure to Gov. Palin, it might result in a large single-digit or low double-digit shift in the female demographic in the only poll that ultimately counts. (That being, of course, the one on Nov. 4.)
"Or, women see a far right Dobson anti choice zealot and who doesn't represent them on womens issue in the slightest?"
Again with the euphemistic "choice". Palin is anti-abortion, not anti "choice" (whatever the hell that means). And why is every disagreement depicted as "zealotry"? Does Palin have a particular zeal for not killing babies? Does that mean you have a particular zeal for child murder? Do most American women share that zeal? Zeal zeal zeal!
Women, regardless of politics, tend to hate each other.
In fact, women tend to hate other women, err period.
Huh?
Commenter "beth" (11:13am) is a good example of someone who is under a misimpression about Gov. Palin: She's not big-spending, she's a demonstrated fiscal conservative. And although she's not a proponent of gay marriage, her first veto as governor was of a bill that would have tried to do an end-run around an Alaska Supreme Court ruling that mandated state-paid spousal benefits for gay partners.
Whether this "beth" in particular will be willing to reconsider, of course, I don't know. But she's a good example of someone currently operating under severe misimpressions that might be corrected, and that if so, might change her vote.
These polls are neither real or scientific; contrary to what the people who took Poli Sci 101 believe. Polling is nothing more that a way some people figured out to make a good buck. God bless American capitalism, but the only poll that matters is the one that closes on election day.
garage mahal said...
Or, women see a far right Dobson anti choice zealot and who doesn't represent them on womens issue in the slightest?
That is the only issue and talking point you people have isn't it. You have nothing else to offer. It is the same old, tired thing over and over agian.
The whole world can go to hell in a hand basket as long as elected officials are pro-choice and pro-choice only.
That is what is called tunnel vision. In your case skinny pipe full of feces vision.
Palladian
At her church they're praying for a cure for your gayness. Her worldview in undoubtedly shaped by that thinking by her own admission. People should be able to think what they want, organize, congregate how they want. But for my money not presidential material.
my take on women: lefties are good at fellatio, but little else; conservatives are good at everything and have crashing orgasms. (SARCASM)
I should add that my sample is based on 3127 women with a MOE of plus or minus 3 percent (wouldnt want to incur cyrus' wrath)
I can't find the answer I'd like in the poll.
Men like Palin because she hunts and fishes.
Reminds me of the Lewinsky affair in reverse. In my experience, men were a lot tougher on Clinton's behavior, whereas women were more willing to excuse it.
Most likely there's a element of partisanship involved here, since polls show women to be somewhat more liberal than men on average. But I don't think that accounts for all of it -- the gender gap on Palin appears larger than usual.
Perhaps women are simply tougher on other women, as men seemed to be tougher on Bill. How to explain Hillary, though?
"At her church they're praying for a cure for your gayness. Her worldview in undoubtedly shaped by
Hmm, I don't remember you saying this about your candidate Obama, who sat for 20 years listening to his pastor spew the most dreadfully stupid and hateful things. Funny, that.
As with his "I actually considered enlisting" line today, I guess the thing that allows Democrats to tolerate things about Obama that repulse them in people like Palin is the constant reassurance: Oh, he doesn't really believe that. He didn't really mean that. He doesn't really like that. He's just got to say and do these things to fool the bitterclingers.
The Gallup poll today puts McCain three points up, for the first time ever. Unless something goes quite wrong I predict a blowout. Obama has passed his zenith.
And all the comment threads on liberal pundits are in full-blown panic.
Enigmaticore, what do you need to hear to bring you on board?
Beth said...
"Palin's ... big-spending GOP wooing isn't working for me."
She's a "big spend[er]"? where does that come from?
Mike R-
Thanks for pointing to that! I'd seen today's Rasmussen (all tied up) -- but hadn't seen the Gallup results.
It will be interesting to see how the Obama campaign reacts if they find themselves behind in the polls this week, as well as still looking for a successful response to Palin...
People should be able to think what they want, organize, congregate how they want. But for my money not presidential material.
Exceuse me while I go get higher boots. The equine excrement is rising higher than the bovine and ovine excrement.
beth: "Palin's anti-gay, anti-choice, big-spending GOP wooing isn't working for me. Fortunately, I'm not programmed by my gonads to vote for a woman. No, not just any woman will do."
You're exactly the kind of woman who has a good chance of changing her mind in the next month.
It's absolutely true that Sarah Palin is anti-choice. But she's no more anti-gay than is, for example, Barack Obama. And she's the farthest thing from a big spender.
You may be surprised when you find out who she really is.
palladian
It's easy, Obama is not a far right evangelical that makes Dobson's heart pitter patter. Dobson was not even for McCain until Palin joined the ticket, that should tell you something. You think that book banning crowd is for freedom? They are whacko revisionists who deny the Enlightment and Age of Reason even existed.
No matter what your position on gay rights it is fair to point out that Palin probably supported the content of the legislation she vetoed. So why did she veto it? She did so because she concluded that it contradicted recent Alaska Supreme Court rulings. She did it, in other words, out of respect for the state Constitution and the separation of powers. I find something to admire in that.
This ought to inform people's views about Palin's likely approach on abortion, too. If she respects the precedent of Roe v. Wade etc. in a similar manner, she wouldn't enact laws to restrict abortion. And yet, even if Roe v. Wade is overturned, she would likely respect the state's rights aspect of it as well. After all, even Scalia thinks abortion is a state matter, short of a Constitutional amendment.
Looks like Palin has the vision thing but the details thing, not so much.
Palin's leadership
In our view, Sarah Palin has been very effective -- surprisingly so, considering her previous leadership experience was as mayor of a town with about 6,000 people.
Gov. Palin is not the kind of leader who gets bogged down in minutia and works 100-hours a week. Instead, she uses her charisma and a simple, clear vision to mobilize mass support for her agenda, then leaves the details and heavy lifting to others.
Reminds me of the Lewinsky affair in reverse. In my experience, men were a lot tougher on Clinton's behavior, whereas women were more willing to excuse it.
I am not so sure about this. Rather, I would suggest that there is something about Bill Clinton that attracts women. Somewhat the bad boy. Somewhat the flirt. Definitely the womanizer and player. I would suggest that no other major party candidate since Kennedy really had this attraction.
Men, on average, tend to dislike this sort of guy (unless you are working with them on picking up women). We see right through it, and that we need to protect our daughters from men like him, and maybe even our wives.
Not surprisingly, a lot of guys like this are mommy's boys. For one thing, they know better how to please women than the rest of us do, and on the other hand, may not be as adept at getting along with men.
Obama too was a mommy's boy, and it shows. But he picked a wife who would cut off his vitals if she caught him cheating, which may be why he looks more effeminate than players like Clinton and Kennedy.
I visualize it this way. While most of the guys (and possibly Sarah Palin) were competing on the sporting fields, Obama was having tea with their mothers, and Clinton was having sex with their girlfriends.
It will be interesting to see how the Obama campaign reacts if they find themselves behind in the polls this week, as well as still looking for a successful response to Palin...
Can Joe Biden hear the bus coming?
Gov. Palin is not the kind of leader who gets bogged down in minutia and works 100-hours a week.
Wasn't Carter accused of having that problem?
Can Joe Biden hear the bus coming?
Biden is back in Delaware trying to get his fingerprints and DNA off of all the artocities he committed on behalf of the corporations and crdit card companies incorporated there. He is also trying to take his name off of a bill that would rename Delaware du Pont. He tried to give the money back too.
Can Joe Biden hear the bus coming?
It was the women (with college degrees, one an MD) who were talking favorably about Palin after church today.
I wonder if the apparent gender discrepancy of Governor Palin's appeal doesn't reflect a sister effect of the polling error that sometimes results in minority candidates doing better in pre-election polls than on election day. Some people have tried to tell me that the racial effect is a myth, but I'm not so sure. I think that prejudice and political correctness can skew polling results. On one hand, this might mean that Governor Palin's likely percentage of male voters is overstated. While this could also be true for women voters to some extent, it's easy for me to imagine that some female voters would be wary of declaring support for not-Hillary. The fact that both racial and gender issues are at play just makes me glad I'm not a pollster.
I haven't read the thread, but I believe that many conservative men like strong women who can kick butt and take names. Golda Meir, Margaret Thatcher are two that come to mind.
Conservative women like those qualities as well. Liberal women, not so much.
In my experience, liberal women tend to like a more collaborative decision making process.
I am amazed with the ferocity that my liberal female colleagues attack Palin. When I point out Hillary's dead body beneath the Obamabus, they go "huh"?
This is an excellent of why reducing this election to gender identity is stupid. I'm not going to vote for Palin's ticket because they're wrong on the issues, and I don't want to be governed by McCain or Palin. Why should women vote for a candidate who doesn't support their issues anymore than men should? Why should I vote for Palin just because Hillary got steamrolled by Obama?
In fact, women tend to hate other women, err period.
No, that's drag queens. An understandable mixup, Palladian.
Palladian, feel free to vote for the candidate whose church runs cure the fag programs. You can use the Google, you know, to find out her position and record on gay rights. Try www.bentalaska.com for a summary. Neither party fulfills my interests, but I can tell the difference between the far-right fundie agenda she supports and the half-assed but essentially benign agenda of the Democrats.
You can use whatever language you want for her opposition to abortion rights, even in the case of rape or incest. I'll never vote for anyone holding that position.
As for big spending, she left her little town $20 million in debt with a sports arena project they didn't need but she pushed through. It also required a sales tax increase and she got that passed. Republicans haven't practiced fiscal responsibility in our lifetimes, Palladian. They just claim to during elections, and apparently some people keep believing them. I have no idea why.
Beldar, why are using curious constructions such as "this 'beth'"? Really, what is that about?
She is no more a responsible steward of public money than any politician; see her record as mayor.
You say that "her first veto as governor was of a bill that would have tried to do an end-run around an Alaska Supreme Court ruling that mandated state-paid spousal benefits for gay partners." But she had to veto the bill. She wanted to sign it, but Alaska's SC and her AG advised her that the bill was unconstitutional.
Palin is not benign to gay people, she's not even remotely pro-gay.
This "beldar" is a very good example of someone who swallows what he wants to believe.
You're exactly the kind of woman who has a good chance of changing her mind in the next month.
No, Clint. I'm not.
If this kind of thinking is what's fueling the belief that women are going to turn out for Palin in droves, I'm starting to feel alot better about Obama's chances.
Thanks, Ruth Anne -- it's a little cartoon version of me.
And thanks also -- you get it! I don't expect you to fall in line behind Hillary because she's the XX candidate. I expect you to stick to what's important to you and I think well of you for it. Thanks for giving me the same respect.
Last comment - I'm taking a break from cleaning out my fridge (I got out all the organic material before evacuating, so nothing horrible was waiting for me in there.) Now I'm hauling out jarred items and taking the opportunity to scrub the empty shelves.
Anyway, there's no cognitive dissonance in women cheering Palin's being on the ticket for VP, and admiring her ambition and accomplishments, while at the same time not voting for her.
Beth, you aren't supposed to evacuate into the fridge. Try the toilet next time.
That's original, David. No one's ever thought of "evacuation" and "toilet" together as a joke before!
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