More striking is the new poll in the governor's race:
A day after a poll by a Madison TV station... showed Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle with a 10-point lead on Republican challenger Mark Green, a new poll released today showed only a one-point lead.What's happening there? Green just started running an ad, which we talked about on the radio this morning.
Posts
27 comments:
You don't want to lead RealAudio, but you want me to type out the text? I don't aim to please that much.
What's happening is that polls are BS.
The science of statistics is fine and dandy, but anyone who has ever been involved in research knows that the answers you get depend a great deal on the questions you ask.
I wonder what percentage of those who said they were undecided actually meant "I've made up my mind, I'm against it, but I'm embarassed about it because I normally vote Democrat and I consider myself to be liberal, but on this issue, I just think it's wrong." More particularly, I wonder if it's more than 2.1%
For alan, you can watch the ad (I am guessing it's the one Ann means) on Green's website, here:
http://www.votemarkgreen.com/
I thought it was a cute ad. He take's Doyle's assertion that he is "extreme" and has his family tell how extreme he is ("extremely good rebounder" says his son with a basketball, etc.)
Green comes across as normal and likeable. What more could you ask an ad do?
Ann,
You point out in the interview that Green doesn't have much name recognition. It seems perfectly unerstandable that people know where they stand on gay marriage, but don't know where they stand on Mark Green.
In Missouri in 2004, 72% voted to define marriage as the union of one man and one woman. The Republican gubernatorial candidate got 51%.
Why would the two necessarily be conflated?
And a liar!
I agree with everything Sippican has to say, after having run his comments through the DaVerdi Code converter to figure out what he meant. Except this: "all operas are pretty much the same anyway."
Wozzeck the same as Figaro? Time for the ear wax remover. Or a new set of speakers. Naturally, Sippican should Blame Bush (no one east of Lake Michigan even knows who this Doyle guy is) for his troubles.
Alan wrote: But it's become clear to me since I'm not a social conservative that voting for them would be against my belief in limited government.
Brother, you said a mouthful....
And Alan, which used car salesman are you going to vote for down here? (I'm also in Florida.)
"The other is done by Strategic Vision, a polling firm which normally services Republican candidates."
Sorry, the words "polling" and "services" and "Republican" are all too close together in that statement. It must be because I'm a smutty minded homosexual.
Hey Richard- where can I get one of those DeVerdi converters? Ebay maybe? I don't like feeling dumb when I read SC's posts.
Polls before the election in 2004 in Michigan showed the anti-gay marriage proposal winning only narrowly. Like most other states, the actual result was a blowout in favor.
Oregon passed a gay marriage ban. Is Wisconsin more liberal than Oregon?
My guess is that you're getting the phenomenon where people lie about their intentions to sound more like what the PC news tells them they should be doing.
Let's face it, no gay marriage ban has lost yet. What is it, 18-0 and counting?
I should point out that I'm personally very much in favor of at least laws regularizing the relationships between gay couples and could support some type of civil agreements. I understand why many are against gay 'marriage' and even civil unions or whatever. They have real reasons, I just don't agree with them in all cases.
And as for the gov polls, I couldn't find any internals for the WISC poll, so it's pretty much useless to me.
For those who haven't listened to the radio show but are checking out the Green ad, Rothschild (the other guest, the on-the-left guest) said the ad was terrible because it called attention to the attack on him (that he's "extreme"). I said the ad was all about gaining name recognition and getting people to think he's a good person. (But I also thought it was reminiscent of the famous Goldwater line: "Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.")
I've only heard snippets of the ad -- I think on WPR news one morning, a story about the extreme thing. But it reminded my of early Feingold ads.
That said, I do think Green has extreme views on some things. Abortion, for example. Accepting favors from Jack Abramoff. That kind of thing.
Sip -- Aldis lamp; that's the thing. As in, "Wuthering Heights in Sempahore" and "Julius Casesar on Aldis lamp."
And kudos on a great "Wag the Dog" reference.
AJ: The only place to get an authentic DaVerdi Code converter is a shop on Front Street, in Marion, MA. Ask for Yrogerg. He'll be able to help you.
Richard Dolan-
Don't reveal the secret knock.
Sip --
No, but Kudos is a chocolate bar.
Say no more.
Green's commercial and the longer piece on his website both have a Ned Lamont vibe to them, in style if not in substance. The "I'm just like you, not a professional politician" or a political insider message is a key element of both.
The "I'm just like you, not a professional politician" or a political insider message is a key element of both.
Yes, regular people like me often shmooze with Abramoff. Riiight. Both Mark Green and Jim Doyle are professional politicians, regardless of their ads' vibes, and I hope Wisconsin voters know that.
Q: What do this blog's hostess and Jim Doyle have in common?
A: They both taught me in law school.
Ann, your collegue in the political science department, Charles Franklin, regularly dissects state and national polls.
A student at Marquette takes a quick look, at polls that are similar and different.
I think those that oppose the gay marriage amendment are making a mistake by focusing on the second clause and arguing that it forbuds a civil union.
Why? Most people don't understand the argument, but they do understand that they are ducking the main question. The conclusion is that one side can't argue the isue on its merits.
Much better to argue things like "Wouldn't marriage. committment, and a stable relationship be better than one night stands?
Alan, thanks for the response. Personally I've reached a point where I don't think I'm going to bother voting in the primary. And the choices are so bad that I'm not sure I'll vote in the general election either. It's just that bad.
It's very interesting how well Crist is doing. And it's been kind of shocking to watch Gallagher become unhinged as he falls farther behind in the polls. I expect he'll be pulling out the old Sledge-O-Matic any day now.
Post a Comment