May 2, 2005

An unusually clear crystal ball.

Orin Kerr at Volokh Conspiracy notes today's cert grant:
Supreme Court to Review Solomon Amendment Case: The Supreme Court has granted certiorari to review the Third Circuit's decision striking down the Solomon Amendment. The decision to take the case isn't surprising (see my prediction after reading the cert petition here). Gazing into my crystal ball, I predict that the Court will reverse. I don't think it will be close, either: maybe 9-0, with a concurrence or two. But of course these things are tough to predict.
Tough enough to make anyone want to bet on the other side? I think not.


Uncle Jimbo said...

The Solomon Amendment would be irrelevant if the military would change the outdated "Don't ask, don't tell" policy. I wrote a piece advocating repealing this and the majority of military folks who responded were supportive.

Good reason to exclude gays?


Uncle J

Military Matters

Crank said...

I'd certainly be willing to take the under on a 9-0 reversal. You really think Stevens and Souter are going to disagree with the Third Circuit here? I predict at least two votes for affirmance, notwithstanding the fact that the Court's four liberals all dissented in the Boy Scouts v. Dale case the Third Circuit relied on below.