"The plane can become almost uncontrollable.... They couldn’t recover from it, and they crashed.... This, to me, is just a textbook example of exactly what we’re taught when we’re pilots, and that is, don’t fly through thunderstorms, because you just don’t know their severity."
Said Daniel Bubb, a former pilot who now teaches at the University of Nevada, quoted in "What Caused a Jet to Dive Nose First Into the Ground? Ice, experts said, can change the shape of a plane’s wing, disrupting its aerodynamics" (NYT).

12 comments:
A tailplane stall is the most interesting possibility. The tailplane has the least effective anti-icing while the wing is protected by engine bleed air. NASA video
A video which was probably responsible for the Calgon crash long ago by providing bad advice for most situations.
A Colorado family of 4 died in the crash.
Images of the crash on local media
Wow.
The copilot got some praise from Blancolerio for calling out what was going on to ATC, important evidence.
People are focusing in on the co-pilot a 20 y/o woman. But the head pilot was a 55 y/o man with lots of flying experience. Anyone can make a mistake. Too bad this one cost lives.
I was riding once as a passenger in the front seat of a Bolkow 105 chopper, a German 2-engine helicopter with an almost- full perspex bubble over the cockpit. The pilot took us right at a huge cumulus thunderhead, then at the very last minute skirted around it toward the landing strip, as it towered both in front, and over us. He was a Canadian ex-Vietnam pilot, and we were the only two on board, and I think he was trying to get a rise out of me.
I'm surprised the flight crew didn't try to skirt such a huge cell, but maybe it blew up quickly; Florida has certainly had some violent weather over the past week. Tragic and I hope the full analysis inspires changes.
Sad
Per Orlando TV, the rainfall amounts, up to 24 inches in places, made it a thousand year storm, in other words, it was a storm that needed a good leaving alone.
They encountered precipitation, and it seems that water can be supercooled, -47C where the plane was, and remain liquid for a time,and it could have been jetted up out of the storm, and it can defeat the anti icing tech on these planes, at least according to my YouTube PhD on the subject.
Probably Daniel Bubb is correct, but as I’ve said before we should wait for the NTSB to make its report. For instance the jet was flying across Florida on its way to Freeport in the Bahamas. Did the captain check Florida weather before the flight? The copilot (“pilot monitoring”) was in touch with ATC but the controller advised that they were at the edge of his radar coverage. What role did that play?
“Mmm… dark, lively…”
https://www.getyarn.io/yarn-story/98935350-b340-498a-bba1-654c8336462c
Good pilots fly around severe weather.
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